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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Linking vocal behaviours to habitat structure to create behavioural landscapes

The recent development of animal-borne sensors coupled with location data can provide insights into how individuals modify their behaviour with respect to specific habitat features. Animals can express a diverse array of behaviours as they navigate heterogenous landscapes, yet few studies have specifically evaluated the interaction of behaviours with habitat characteristics. We used a novel broadcast acoustic transmitter to investigate the interaction between vocal behaviours of an endemic Hawaiian thrush, the ʻōmaʻo, Myadestes obscurus , and habitat features across a naturally fragmented forest landscape. Through the development of behavioural landscape models that link specific vocalizations with space use, we found that the use of different vocalization types (calls, songs, whisper songs) were highly variable across the landscape but were associated with distinct habitat features. The likelihood of calls increased in an open lava matrix between forest patches, while whisper songs were more strongly associated with the dense interior areas of forest fragments. In contrast, the rate of ʻōmaʻo vocalizations overall decreased in the open lava matrix, suggesting that ʻōmaʻo may shift behaviours from territory defence to foraging as they transition through different habitats. Our study revealed context-specific changes in behaviour across ʻōmaʻo home ranges, including courtship, aggression and social interactions between individuals. Combining the use of a novel acoustic tool with automated radiotelemetry allowed us to overcome challenges associated with detection and analysis of variation in behaviour and resource selection across a highly heterogeneous landscape that would have been otherwise difficult to impossible.

Hawaii↗

USGS1996

Summary of the land-use inventory for the nonpoint-source evaluation monitoring watersheds in Wisconsin

In 1992, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a land-use inventory to identify sources of pollutants and track the land-management changes for eight evaluation monitoring watersheds established as part of the WDNR's Nonpoint Source Program. Each evaluation monitoring watershed is within a WDNR priority watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey is responsible for collection of water-quality data in the evaluation monitoring watersheds. An initial inventory was completed for each of the WDNR priority watersheds before nonpoint-source plans were developed for the control of nonpoint pollution. The land-use inventory described in this report expands upon the initial inventory by including nonpoint pollution sources that were not identified and also by updating changes in landuse and land-management practices. New sources of nonpoint pollution, not identified in the initial inventory, could prove to be important when monitored and modeled data are analyzed. This effort to inventory the evaluation monitoring watersheds will help with the interpretation of future land-use and water-quality data. This report describes landuse inventory methods, presents results of the inventory, and lists proposed future activities.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Travel Times, Streamflow Velocities, and Dispersion Rates in the Yellowstone River, Montana

The Yellowstone River is a vital natural resource to the residents of southeastern Montana and is a primary source of water for irrigation and recreation and the primary source of municipal water for several cities. The Yellowstone River valley is the primary east-west transportation corridor through southern Montana. This complex of infrastructure makes the Yellowstone River especially vulnerable to accidental spills from various sources such as tanker cars and trucks. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a dye-tracer study to determine instream travel times, streamflow velocities, and dispersion rates for the Yellowstone River from Lockwood to Glendive, Montana. The purpose of this report is to describe the results of this study and summarize data collected at each of the measurement sites between Lockwood and Glendive. This report also compares the results of this study to estimated travel times from a transport model developed by the USGS for a previous study. For this study, Rhodamine WT dye was injected at four locations in late September and early October 2008 during reasonably steady streamflow conditions. Streamflows ranged from 3,490 to 3,770 cubic feet per second upstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River and ranged from 6,520 to 7,570 cubic feet per second downstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River. Mean velocities were calculated for each subreach between measurement sites for the leading edge, peak concentration, centroid, and trailing edge at 10 percent of the peak concentration. Calculated velocities for the centroid of the dye plume for subreaches that were completely laterally mixed ranged from 1.83 to 3.18 ft/s within the study reach from Lockwood Bridge to Glendive Bridge. The mean of the completely mixed centroid velocity for the entire study reach, excluding the subreach between Forsyth Bridge and Cartersville Dam, was 2.80 ft/s. Longitudinal dispersion rates of the dye plume for this study ranged from 0.06 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Forsyth Bridge to 2.25 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Calyspo Bridge for subreaches where the dye was completely laterally mixed. A relation was determined between travel time of the peak concentration and time for the dye plume to pass a site (duration). This relation can be used to estimate when the receding concentration of a potential contaminant reaches 10 percent of its peak concentration for accidental spills into the Yellowstone River. Data from this dye-tracer study were used to evaluate velocity and concentration estimates from a transport model developed as part of an earlier USGS study. Comparison of the estimated and calculated velocities for the study reach indicate that the transport model estimates the velocities of the Yellowstone River between Huntley Bridge and Glendive Bridge with reasonable accuracy. Velocities of the peak concentration of the dye plume calculated for this study averaged 10 percent faster than the most probable velocities and averaged 12 percent slower than the maximum probable velocities estimated from the transport model. Peak Rhodamine WT dye concentrations were consistently lower than the transport model estimates except for the most upstream subreach of each dye injection. The most upstream subreach of each dye injection is expected to have a higher concentration because of incomplete lateral mixing. Lower measured peak concentrations for all other sites were expected because Rhodamine WT dye deteriorates when exposed to sunlight and will sorb onto the streambanks and stream bottom. Velocity-streamflow relations developed by using routine streamflow measurements at USGS gaging stations and the transport model can be used to estimate mean streamflow velocities throughout a range of streamflows. The variation in these velocity-streamflow relations emphasizes the uncertainty in estimating the mean streamflow veloc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

A test and re-estimation of Taylor's empirical capacity-reserve relationship

In 1977, Taylor proposed a constant elasticity model relating capacity choice in mines to reserves. A test of this model using a very large (n = 1,195) dataset confirms its validity but obtains significantly different estimated values for the model coefficients. Capacity is somewhat inelastic with respect to reserves, with an elasticity of 0.65 estimated for open-pit plus block-cave underground mines and 0.56 for all other underground mines. These new estimates should be useful for capacity determinations as scoping studies and as a starting point for feasibility studies. The results are robust over a wide range of deposit types, deposit sizes, and time, consistent with physical constraints on mine capacity that are largely independent of technology. ?? 2009 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2004

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite–host or predator–prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus ( Pachycereus schottii ) – senita moth ( Upiga virescens ) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre–adult survival of the pollinating seed–consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B↗

USGS2021

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic National Parks: 2008-2017 synthesis report

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with the National Park Service (NPS)-North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN), the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe (MIT), Puyallup Tribe of Indians (PTOI), and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) to develop a standard survey protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the abundance, distribution, and population composition of elk on key summer ranges within Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) and Olympic National Park (OLYM). In MORA, surveys were conducted in two trend count areas (TCAs) that correspond with primary summer ranges used by the North Rainier Herd, which winters outside the park to the North, and the South Rainier Herd, which winters outside the park primarily to the South. In OLYM, we defined five TCAs including an Olympic Core TCA (hereafter, Core TCA) that encompasses summer ranges on the flanks of Mount Olympus, and four TCAs that encompass other primary summer ranges throughout the park. The standard protocol allows for estimating aerial survey detection biases and adjusting raw survey counts to account for elk that were likely present but not seen during surveys. Previously, we developed a suite of aerial-bias-correction models for use in estimating aerial detection biases and adjusting raw counts of elk in MORA based on sighting conditions related to elk group size, vegetation density, lighting conditions, elk movement, as well as combinations of these and other factors. The models were based on independent sighting records of elk groups by front-seat and back-seat observer pairs in a helicopter, including detection records of some radio-collared elk groups. Here, we analyze results of the first 10 years of elk monitoring in MORA (2008-2017) and 8 years in OLYM (2008-2015). In a previous report covering surveys conducted from 2008-2011, data were not sufficient to model detection biases of aerial surveys conducted in OLYM; hence, analyses of elk population trends were based on counts adjusted for detection biases in MORA, whereas trends in OLYM were based on raw, unadjusted counts (Griffin et al. 2013, Jenkins et al. 2015). Our objectives for the current summary were to: (1) incorporate additional data to update aerial-bias-correction models previously developed for use in MORA to include corrections for aerial detection bias in both MORA and OLYM, (2) examine trends in elk abundance, distribution, and population composition estimates for subalpine summer ranges within MORA and OLYM, and (3) estimate effects of seasonal variation and weather on elk abundance and population composition estimates for subalpine summer ranges in both parks.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Modeling long-term trends of chlorinated ethene contamination at a public supply well

A mass-balance solute-transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long-term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.

New Jersey↗

USGS2010

Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius and Grand Rivers). The increase in total suspended solids concentrations could be because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Most trace element data examined in the study were highly censored and could not be used for flow-adjusted trend analyses. Water-quality conditions were assessed to explore relations between data from sites and to the State water-quality standards where applicable for selected constituents. Streamflow varied at each site because of drainage area, land use, and groundwater inputs. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature were similar at all sites except the urban site located on Wilson Creek. Specific conductance was similar between the most northern (South Fabius and Grand River sites) and the most southern sites (Current and Elk River sites). Total suspended solids concentrations were near the method reporting level at all sites, except the northern sites. Streams in northern Missouri are more turbid than streams in southern Missouri and are affected by large volumes of sediment deposition because of soil erosion from land cultivated for row crops. Geometric means of Escherichia coli were calculated from the recreational seasons within the study period. Only the Grand River site exceeded the whole-body-contact standard for frequently used waters. The South Fabius and Grand River sites and the Wilson Creek site had statistically larger densities of both fecal indicator bacteria types than the remaining sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1995

Numerical Simulation of Regional Changes in Ground-Water Levels and in the Freshwater-Saltwater Interface Induced by Increased Pumpage at Barbers Point Shaft, Oahu, Hawaii

The effect on the regional ground-water system of southern Oahu from increased pumpage at Barbers Point shaft was estimated by a numerical ground-water model developed for the Oahu Regional Aquifer Systems Analysis (RASA) study. The RASA model was updated by revising pumping and ground-water recharge data. Pumpage data used in the new simulations were based on the allocated pumping rates for 1995 as set by the State Commission on Water Resource Management. On the basis of numerical simulation, Barbers Point shaft can sustain a withdrawal rate of 4.34 million gallons per day without adversely affecting wells in the Waianae aquifer. From results of numerical simulations, it is estimated that, as a result of increasing pumpage in Barbers Point shaft by 2 million gallons per day above the 1995-allocated rate of 2.337 million gallons per day, regional declines in ground-water levels will be about 0.4 to 0.7 feet throughout the Waianae aquifer and about 0.8 ft at the shaft. The corresponding rise of the freshwater-saltwater interface, as a result of declines in ground-water levels, is estimated to be about 20 to 30 feet. Numerical simulation also indicates that changes in ground-water levels greater than about 0.1 feet do not extend across either the Waianae-Koolau unconformity or the south Schofield barrier. The model-estimated position of the freshwater-saltwater interface, as a result of additional pumpage, ranges from 500 to 860 feet below sea level in the southern and northern parts of the aquifer, respectively, and about 540 feet below sea level at the shaft. On the basis of an estimate of the thickness of the transition-zone, the freshwater lens would remain about 240 feet thick below the shaft. In addition, the estimated declines in ground-water levels throughout the aquifer are small compared with the thickness of the freshwater lens and these declines would not be expected to affect the yields of other wells in terms of quantity. Chloride concentrations in the water pumped at Barbers Point shaft were about 240 milligrams per liter in 1992. The estimated background chloride concentration is 200 to 220 milligrams per liter because of low rainfall and the contamination of recharge water from natural salt accumulation in the soil. A reduction in irrigation through 1995 is expected to reduce recharge to the aquifer from irrigation-return water and chloride concentrations associated with the irrigation water throughout the Waianae aquifer. As a result of these combined effects, chloride concentrations of water pumped from the Barbers Point shaft will likely decrease, although the length of time required for this lowering is unknown.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1995

Estimates of ground-water recharge rates for two small basins in central Nevada

Estimates of ground-water recharge rates developed from hydrologic modeling studies are presented for 3-Springs and East Stewart basins. two small basins (analog sites) located in central Nevada. The analog-site studies were conducted to aid in the estimation of recharge to the paleohydrologic regime associated with ground water in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain under wetter climatic conditions. The two analog sites are located to the north and at higher elevations than Yucca Mountain, and the prevailing (current) climatic conditions at these sites is thought to be representative of the possible range of paleoclimatic conditions in the general area of Yucca Mountain during the Quaternary. Two independent modeling approaches were conducted at each of the analog sites using observed hydrologic data on precipitation, temperature, solar radiation stream discharge, and chloride-ion water chemistry for a 6-year study period (October 1986 through September 1992). Both models quantify the hydrologic water-balance equation and yield estimates of ground-water recharge, given appropriate input data. The first model uses a traditional approach to quantify watershed hydrology through a precipitation-runoff modeling system that accounts for the spatial variability of hydrologic inputs, processes, and responses (outputs) using a dailycomputational time step. The second model is based on the conservative nature of the dissolved chloride ion in selected hydrologic environments, and its use as a natural tracer allows the computation of acoupled, water and chloride-ion, mass-balance system of equations to estimate available water (sum ofsurface runoff and groundwater recharge). Results of the modeling approaches support the conclusion that reasonable estimates of average-annual recharge to ground water range from about 1 to 3 centimeters per year for 3-Springs basin (the drier site), and from about 30 to 32 centimeters per year for East Stewart basin (the wetter site). The most reliable results are those derived from a reduced form of the chloride-ion model because they reflect integrated, basinwide processes in terms of only three measured variables: precipitation amount, precipitation chemistry, and streamflow chemistry.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

Linkage of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Texas Water Availability Model to simulate the effects of brush management on monthly storage of Canyon Lake, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and applied an approach to create a linkage between the published upper Guadalupe River Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) brush-management (ashe juniper [ Juniperus ashei ]) model and the full authorization version Guadalupe River Water Availability Model (WAM). The SWAT model was published by the USGS, and the Guadalupe River WAM is available from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The upper Guadalupe River watershed is a substantial component of the Guadalupe River WAM. This report serves in part as documentation of a proof of concept on the feasibility of linking these two water-resources planning models for the purpose of simulating possible increases in water storage in Canyon Lake as a result of different brush-management scenarios. The SWAT-WAM linkage for the upper Guadalupe River is documented with a principal objective to evaluate the distributional characteristics of the monthly water storage of Canyon Lake during selected drought conditions. Focus is on the relative evaluation of select scenarios of large-scale or “extensive” brush management within the upper Guadalupe River watershed. There are six SWAT simulations for the upper Guadalupe River watershed that include a baseline (0-percent management of treatable ashe juniper, the baseline scenario from a previous study in which no percentage of ashe juniper is numerically replaced with grassland) along with five scenarios (extensions of SWAT simulations from a previous study) of 20-, 40-, 60-, 80-, and 100-percent random (numerical) replacement of treatable ashe juniper with grasslands throughout the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas. SWAT is a process-based, semidistributed, water-balance model designed to predict the effects of landscape management decisions on water yields. A watershed is subdivided into subbasins, and each subbasin is associated with a single reach on the stream network. In general a WAM, such as the Guadalupe River WAM, provides analysis of generalized water rights in a river and reservoir framework. A WAM accommodates hydrology and water usage through several input files containing water rights, watershed parameters, and naturalized streamflow time series. A WAM is generalized for application to rivers and reservoir systems, and input datasets are uniquely developed for a river basin of concern. The extractions of SWAT output for the five extensive brush-management and baseline scenarios were offset by –21 years and, in general, the results were then mapped to the WAM input-flow file. The offset of –21 years was chosen arbitrarily for technical reasons and means that the period of monthly record 1995–2010 of the upper Guadalupe River SWAT became the synthetic period of monthly record 1974–89, hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period, of the Guadalupe River WAM. The relative (between scenario to baseline) effects of extensive brush-management scenarios by using the SWAT-WAM linkage were evaluated, and two critical intermediate results were total inflow to Canyon Lake from 1995 to 2010 and the monthly storage of Canyon Lake from 1974 to 1989 (synthetic). The first quartile or lower 25th percentile of monthly storage of Canyon Lake for the baseline scenario is 381,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) for the hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period. This lower quartile was chosen for analysis for two critical purposes. First, Canyon Lake is managed with a conservation pool of about 386,200 acre-ft capacity (as recognized by the WAM) and is at or near conservation capacity about 50 percent or more of the time; further, there is intrinsic data censoring that occurs for the monthly storage distribution because Canyon Lake is at or near conservation pool elevation the majority of the time. This intrinsic censoring has the effect of creating a bounded distribution with a left or low-volume tail. Statistical assessment of the brush-management scenarios beginning with the 381,000 acre-ft censoring threshold provides readily interpretable results. Second, the quantification of brush management during periods lacking abundant rainfall, which were defined in this study as months for which Canyon Lake storage was below the 25th percentile for the simulation period, are of substantial interest to water-resource managers and stakeholders in the context of water-supply enhancement. A statistical assessment of the SWAT-WAM linkage for the low-volume tail of the distribution of monthly storage of Canyon Lake is the focus of analysis and interpretation. Drought periods for the analysis are defined as the months (consecutive or not) during which Canyon Lake is below the 25th percentile of storage (381,000 acre-ft) for the baseline scenario. Such months are referred to as being within the “Drought Quartile.” The Drought Quartile is a conceptual and heuristically determined waypoint for the analysis and is not related to any administrative definition of drought by stakeholders or policy makers. The five scenarios and the baseline scenario simulated in the upper Guadalupe River SWAT were all passed through the Guadalupe River WAM by the SWAT-WAM linkage described in this report. A comparison of the mean increase per month in reservoir storage for Canyon Lake conditioned for the Drought Quartile was made. For each of the five brush-management and baseline scenarios, the months with storage below 381,000 acre-ft were extracted. The mean monthly storages during the Drought Quartile were computed for each of the five scenarios and the baseline scenario. The mean of the baseline scenario was 376,458 acre-ft and subsequently was subtracted from the mean monthly storage during the Drought Quartile for each of the five scenarios. The mean monthly offset storages of Canyon Lake during the Drought Quartile were 110 acre-ft (20 percent); 448 acre-ft (40 percent); 754 acre-ft (60 percent); 1,080 acre-ft (80 percent); and 1,090 acre-ft (100 percent). A particular mean was interpreted as follows: the value of 754 acre-ft for the 60-percent brush-management scenario implies that, on average, this scenario indicates an additional 754 acre-ft per month of storage in Canyon Lake relative to the baseline during the Drought Quartile. All of the five scenarios resulted in an increase on average to water supply relative to the baseline scenario during the Drought Quartile through the SWAT-WAM linkage.

Texas↗

USGS2009

Decision Support System for Evaluation of Gunnison River Flow Regimes With Respect To Resources of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park

This report describes and documents a decision support system for the Gunnison River in Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park. It is a macro-embedded EXCEL program that calculates and displays indicators representing valued characteristics or processes in the Black Canyon based on daily flows of the Gunnison River. The program is designed to easily accept input from downloaded stream gage records or output from the RIVERWARE reservoir operations model being used for the upstream Aspinall Unit. The decision support system is structured to compare as many as eight alternative flow regimes, where each alternative is represented by a daily sequence of at least 20 calendar years of streamflow. Indicators include selected flow statistics, riparian plant community distribution, clearing of box elder by inundation and scour, several measures of sediment mobilization, trout fry habitat, and federal reserved water rights. Calculation of variables representing National Park Service federal reserved water rights requires additional secondary input files pertaining to forecast and actual basin inflows and storage levels in Blue Mesa reservoir. Example input files representing a range of situations including historical, reconstructed natural, and simulated alternative reservoir operations are provided with the software.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1998

Assessing groundwater vulnerability using logistic regression

Determining the likelihood that groundwater contains elevated concentrations of contaminants can help water resource managers protect drinking water supplies. For example, this information is useful for selecting new sites for drinking water sources and designing more cost-effective monitoring strategies for existing sources. Groundwater vulnerability has typically been assessed using largely qualitative methods and expressed as relative measures of risk. In this study, a statistical approach was used to quantify the likelihood that a well contains an elevated concentration of nitrate or a detectable concentration of atrazine. The occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations or detectable concentrations of atrazine in groundwater was related to both natural and anthropogenic variables using logistic regression. The variables that best explain the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations were well depth, surficial geology, and the percentages of urban and agricultural land within a radius of 3.2 kilometers of a well. Well depth and roadside application of atrazine best explained the occurrence of detectable concentrations of atrazine. From these relations, multiple logistic regression models were developed which predict the probability that a well has an elevated nitrate concentration or a detectable concentration of atrazine.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Land use effects on sediment nutrient processes in a heavily modified watershed using structural equation models

Contemporary land use can affect sediment nutrient processes in rivers draining heavily modified watersheds; however, studies linking land use to sediment nutrient processes in large river networks are limited. In this study, we developed and evaluated structural equation models (SE models) for denitrification and phosphorus retention capacity to determine direct and indirect linkages between current land use and sediment nutrient processes during baseflow in the Fox River watershed, Wisconsin USA. A large spatial-scale dataset used for this study included sediment nitrogen and phosphorus retention measurements and land use information for 106 sites. The SE models for the Fox River watershed identified direct links between current land use and in-stream sediment nutrient processes. Sub-watersheds with agricultural land consisting of more natural land cover had lower surface water nitrate concentrations and higher denitrification enzyme activity than sub-watersheds with less alternative cover. This suggests that best management practices implemented in the Fox River watershed that restore natural land cover can improve water quality through nitrogen removal on the agricultural landscape and in the river network. Best management practices are not having the same measurable affect on phosphorus in the river network, most likely due to legacy phosphorus stored in the sediment.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Streamflow depletion by wells--Understanding and managing the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow

Groundwater is an important source of water for many human needs, including public supply, agriculture, and industry. With the development of any natural resource, however, adverse consequences may be associated with its use. One of the primary concerns related to the development of groundwater resources is the effect of groundwater pumping on streamflow. Groundwater and surface-water systems are connected, and groundwater discharge is often a substantial component of the total flow of a stream. Groundwater pumping reduces the amount of groundwater that flows to streams and, in some cases, can draw streamflow into the underlying groundwater system. Streamflow reductions (or depletions) caused by pumping have become an important water-resource management issue because of the negative impacts that reduced flows can have on aquatic ecosystems, the availability of surface water, and the quality and aesthetic value of streams and rivers. Scientific research over the past seven decades has made important contributions to the basic understanding of the processes and factors that affect streamflow depletion by wells. Moreover, advances in methods for simulating groundwater systems with computer models provide powerful tools for estimating the rates, locations, and timing of streamflow depletion in response to groundwater pumping and for evaluating alternative approaches for managing streamflow depletion. The primary objective of this report is to summarize these scientific insights and to describe the various field methods and modeling approaches that can be used to understand and manage streamflow depletion. A secondary objective is to highlight several misconceptions concerning streamflow depletion and to explain why these misconceptions are incorrect.

Circular↗

USGS2023

Natal contributions of Kokanee salmon to Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Wyoming–Utah: An evaluation using otolith microchemistry

In a system that uses supplemental stocking to enhance a fishery that serves a dual purpose, an understanding of the contributions from natural and hatchery-produced fish is important so that hatchery resources can be appropriately allocated. Kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka were first stocked in Flaming Gorge Reservoir (FGR), Wyoming–Utah, in 1963 and serve a dual purpose as a prey resource and sport fish. Although natural recruitment occurs in the reservoir, a supplemental stocking program was initiated in 1991. We sought to identify the natal origin (i.e., natural, hatchery) of kokanee in FGR using otolith microchemistry. We evaluated return to the creel, composition of spawning aggregates, and growth of kokanee in FGR and focused on differences associated with natal origin. We analyzed kokanee otoliths that we collected from hatcheries ( n = 60) and FGR ( n = 1,003) for the strontium isotope ratio, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, using laser ablation and a multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. We conducted Kruskal–Wallis tests to compare the strontium isotope ratios from the otolith edge of kokanee that we sampled from hatcheries and FGR. Based on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios, we could distinguish natural-origin kokanee from 11 of the 12 hatcheries ( P < 0.01); however, the Wigwam Hatchery was not significantly different from FGR ( P = 0.84). We used model-based discriminant function analysis to assign natal origins for kokanee caught in FGR. Hatchery contribution to the population at large varied from 21 to 50% among year classes from 2014 to 2018. The percentage of hatchery origin kokanee in the creel (18–50%) was similar to what we observed in the population. Hatchery-produced kokanee contributed a higher proportion to tributary-spawning aggregates (40–90%) than shoreline-spawning aggregates (19–58%) by sample year. Growth of natural and hatchery kokanee was similar, suggesting similar performance in the system. Results from this study identify that hatchery supplementation contributes to the population and recreational harvest of kokanee in FGR. This research also provides insight into the ecology of kokanee that is useful for better understanding kokanee population dynamics in reservoir systems.

Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Predictive mapping of seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans off the Pacific Coast of Washington

About this report This report supports Washington-led marine spatial planning and responsible stewardship of natural and cultural resources by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. Washington state agencies and the sanctuary continually seek the best available science to improve management of marine uses and stewardship of resources (Etheridge et al., 2010; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2015a). This report and associated data provide new, state- and sanctuary-requested information on seabird, pinniped, and cetacean distributions. Through spatial planning, information on species distributions can help to identify high-value conservation areas, minimize adverse effects of ocean uses and mitigate impacts of coastal hazards. Correspondingly, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has already begun to use the maps of predicted relative density presented in this report to identify ecologically important areas off the Pacific Coast of Washington and apply this information to plan for offshore renewable energy development. This is the culmination of three years of work to compile information on seabirds, pinnipeds, and cetaceans, and advance a modeling framework that can integrate data sets and develop accurate predictions of relative density for important species off the Pacific Coast of Washington. Previous reports, which evaluated existing datasets of at-sea observations (Menza et al., 2014; Kracker and Menza, 2015) and presented superseded versions of seabird models (Menza et al., 2015), provided base information for this report. In addition to the maps in this published report, all new seabird, pinniped and cetacean predictions will be made publicly available as digital geospatial data through the National Centers for Environmental Information. This research supports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Zone Management Program, a voluntary partnership between the federal government and U.S. coastal and Great Lakes states and territories authorized by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 to address national coastal issues. The act provides the basis for protecting, restoring, and responsibly developing our nation’s diverse coastal communities and resources. To meet the goals of the CZMA, the national program takes a comprehensive approach to coastal resource management – balancing the often competing and occasionally conflicting demands of coastal resource use, economic development, and conservation. A wide range of issues are addressed through the program, including coastal development, water quality, public access, habitat protection, energy facility siting, ocean governance and planning, coastal hazards, and climate change. Accurate maps of seabird and marine mammal distributions are an important tool for making informed management decisions that affect all of these issues.

Washington↗

USGS2013

Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging toward the lake. Total groundwater inflow to Shell Lake is small (approximately 5 percent of the water budget) compared with water entering the lake from precipitation (83 percent) and surface-water runoff (13 percent). The MODFLOW model also was used to simulate average annual hydrologic conditions from 1949 to 2009, including effects of the removal of 3 billion gallons of water during 2003–5. The maximum decline in simulated average annual water levels for Shell Lake due to the diversion alone was 3.3 ft at the end of the diversion process in 2005. Model simulations also indicate that although water level continued to decline through 2009 in response to local weather patterns (local drought), the effects of the diversion decreased after the diversion ceased; that is, after 4 years of recovery (2006–9), drawdown attributable to the diversion alone decreased by about 0.6 ft because of increased groundwater inflow and decreased lake-water outflow to groundwater caused by the artificially lower lake level. A delayed response in drawdown of less than 0.5 ft was transmitted through the groundwater-flow system to upgradient lakes. This relatively small effect on upgradient lakes is attributed in part to extensive layers of shallow clay that limit lake/groundwater interaction in the area. Data collected in the lake indicated that Shell Lake is polymictic (characterized by frequent deep mixing) and that its productivity is limited by the amount of phosphorus in the lake. The lake was typically classified as oligotrophic-mesotrophic in June, mesotrophic in July, and mesotrophic-eutrophic in August. In polymictic lakes like Shell Lake, phosphorus released from the sediments is not trapped near the bottom of the lake but is intermittently released to the shallow water, resulting in deteriorating water quality as summer progresses. Because the productivity of Shell Lake is limited by phosphorus, the sources of phosphorus to the lake were quantified, and the response in water quality to changes in phosphorus inputs were evaluated by means of eutrophication models. During 2009, the total input of phosphorus to Shell Lake was 1,730 pounds (lb), of which 1,320 lb came from external sources (76 percent) and 414 lb came from internal loading from sediments in the lake (24 percent). The largest external source was from surface-water runoff, which delivered about 52 percent of the total phosphorus load compared with about 13 percent of the water input. The second largest source was from precipitation (wetfall and dryfall), which delivered 19 percent of the load compared to about 83 percent of the water input. Contributions from septic systems and groundwater accounted for about 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Increased runoff raises water levels in the lake but does not necessarily increase phosphorus loading because phosphorus concentrations in the tributaries decline during increased flow, possibly because of shorter retention times in upstream wetlands. Phosphorus loading to the lake in 2009 represented what occurred after a series of dry years; therefore, this information was combined with data from 2011, a wet year, to estimate phosphorus loading during a range of hydrologic conditions by estimating loading from each component of the phosphorus budget for each year from 1949 to 2011. Comparisons of historical water-quality records with historical water levels and applications of a hydrodynamic model (Dynamic Lake Model, DLM) and empirical eutrophication models were used to understand how changes in water level and the coinciding changes in phosphorus loading affect the water quality of Shell Lake. DLM simulations indicate that large changes in water level (approximately 10 ft) affect the persistence of stratification in the lake. During periods with low water levels, the lake is a well-mixed, polymictic system, with water quality degrading slightly as summer progresses. During periods with high water levels, the lake is more stratified, and phosphorus from internal loading is trapped in the hypolimnion and released later in summer, which results in more extreme seasonality in water quality and better clarity in early summer. Results of eutrophication model simulations using a range in external phosphorus inputs illustrate how water quality in Shell Lake (phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths) responds to changes in external phosphorus loading. Results indicate that a 50-percent reduction in external loading from that measured in 2009 would be required to change phosphorus concentrations from 0.018 milligram per liter (mg/L) (measured in 2009) to 0.012 mg/L (estimated for the mid-1800s from analysis of diatoms in sediment cores). Such reductions in phosphorus loading cannot be accomplished by targeting septic systems or internal loading alone because septic systems contribute only about 3 percent of the phosphorus input to the lake, and internal loading from the sediments of Shell Lake contributes only about 25 percent of phosphorus input. Complete elimination of phosphorus from septic systems and internal loading would decrease the phosphorus concentrations in the lake by 0.003–0.004 mg/L. Therefore, reducing phosphorus concentration in the lake more than by 0.004 mg/L requires decreasing phosphorus loading from surface-water contributions, primarily runoff to the lake. Reconstructed changes in water quality from 1860 to 2010, based on changes in the diatom communities archived in the sediments and eutrophication model simulations, suggest that anthropogenic changes in the watershed (sawmill construction in 1881; the establishment of the village of Shell Lake; and land-use changes in the 1920s, including increased agriculture) had a much larger effect on water quality than the natural changes associated with fluctuations in water level. Although the effects of natural changes in water level on water quality appear to be small, changes in water level do have a modest effect on water quality, primarily manifested as small improvements during higher water levels. Fluctuations in water level, however, have a larger effect on the seasonality of water-quality patterns, with better water quality, especially increased Secchi depths, in early summer during years with high water levels.

Wisconsin↗