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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Adaptive management in native grasslands managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service—Implications for grassland birds

Burning and grazing are natural processes in native prairies that also serve as important tools in grassland management to conserve plant diversity, to limit encroachment of woody and invasive plants, and to maintain or improve prairies. Native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains have been extensively invaded by nonnative, cool-season species of grasses. These invasions were believed to reflect a common management history of long-term rest and little or no defoliation by natural processes (burning and grazing). To address the challenges associated with these invasive species, the FWS embraced a collaborative approach in 2008, in partnership with U.S. Geological Survey, to restore native prairies on lands managed by FWS. This approach is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative and was based on the application of an adaptive decision-support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions despite uncertainty and in maximizing learning from management outcomes. The primary objective of this approach was to increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native, unbroken sod while minimizing costs. The alternative management actions that were used to meet this objective include grazing, burning, burning and grazing, and rest (no action). A major challenge for FWS resource managers participating in the NPAM initiative was the recognition that other taxa, besides native grasses and forbs, may be affected by the alternative management practices, thus complicating the adaptive-management cycle and deepening the uncertainty. Specifically, many grassland birds are sensitive to changes in vegetation composition and structure, and thus management that alters vegetation also may affect bird populations. The primary objectives of this study were to assess the effects of alternative management actions on grassland birds on FWS-owned grasslands that are managed under the adaptive-management framework, and to assess the association of vegetation structure and composition as mechanisms for triggering grassland bird responses to management. We surveyed breeding birds and sampled vegetation on 89 native prairie NPAM units managed by the FWS during 2011–13, including 55 units in 2011, 87 units in 2012, and 87 units in 2013. The NPAM units were in 19 FWS refuge complexes and wetland management districts, including 14 complexes in FWS Region 6 (North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana) and 5 complexes in FWS Region 3 (Minnesota). Generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effects of management actions on vegetation structure, vegetation composition, and densities of common bird species. Vegetation structure and composition varied among study units and years, and many of these differences were linked to specific management activities or to the recency of those activities. We recorded 110 bird species in the 89 adaptive-management units. Models of bird abundance reflected not only disturbance-derived changes in vegetation structure and species-specific vegetation preferences but also the influence of defoliation treatments. Vegetation composition was less important to grassland birds than vegetation structure; in particular, mean vertical obstruction (vegetation height-density), bare-ground cover, and litter depth positively or negatively influenced densities of some grassland bird species. The diversity of bird responses to management in this study underscores the complexity of natural grassland systems and the need for heterogeneity management in grasslands in this region.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

Northwest Forest Plan — The first 25 years (1994–2018): Watershed condition status and trends

This report describes status and trends in watershed condition across the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area over the first 25 years since its inception in 1994. The program charged with this task is the Aquatic and Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program (AREMP), which has assembled information from field data collection, spatial datasets, and a host of landscape models to evaluate the status and trends in aquatic resources in streams and watersheds. Field data included hydrologic measurements (stream wetted widths and temperatures), geomorphic responses (instream wood and sediment), and biological responses (macroinvertebrates and aquatic organism passage). Novel statistical models were used to estimate trends in these measured responses. A suite of complementary modeled results was also employed to describe hydrometeorological drivers (e.g., drought indices and stream discharge), forest cover (upslope and riparian vegetation), and geomorphic conditions (e.g., road-related estimates of chronic and shallow landslide sediment delivery risk). Collectively, information on these responses allowed us to rigorously evaluate instream responses and hypothesize watershed drivers of those responses across the NWFP area and over time. The majority of responses we observed indicated widespread and incremental improvements from active management of forests, forest roads, and road-stream crossings as envisioned by the aquatic conservation strategy of the NWFP. Additionally, many of the responses we observed were consistent with those expected under the influences of changing climates in the Pacific Northwest. Ultimately, the long-term, broad-scale information provided by AREMP is a critical foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of federal land management and the effects of changing climates on water resources that sustain the Pacific Northwest’s human and natural landscapes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2010

Assessment of coal geology, resources, and reserves in the northern Wyoming Powder River Basin

The abundance of new borehole data from recent coal bed natural gas development in the Powder River Basin was utilized by the U.S. Geological Survey for the most comprehensive evaluation to date of coal resources and reserves in the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin assessment area. It is the second area within the Powder River Basin to be assessed as part of a regional coal assessment program; the first was an evaluation of coal resources and reserves in the Gillette coal field, adjacent to and south of the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin assessment area. There are no active coal mines in the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin assessment area at present. However, more than 100 million short tons of coal were produced from the Sheridan coal field between the years 1887 and 2000, which represents most of the coal production within the northwestern part of the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin assessment area. A total of 33 coal beds were identified during the present study, 24 of which were modeled and evaluated to determine in-place coal resources. Given current technology, economic factors, and restrictions to mining, seven of the beds were evaluated for potential reserves. The restrictions included railroads, a Federal interstate highway, urban areas, and alluvial valley floors. Other restrictions, such as depth, thickness of coal beds, mined-out areas, and areas of burned coal, were also considered. The total original coal resource in the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin assessment area for all 24 coal beds assessed, with no restrictions applied, was calculated to be 285 billion short tons. Available coal resources, which are part of the original coal resource that is accessible for potential mine development after subtracting all restrictions, are about 263 billion short tons (92.3 percent of the original coal resource). Recoverable coal, which is that portion of available coal remaining after subtracting mining and processing losses, was determined for seven coal beds with a stripping ratio of 10:1 or less. After mining and processing losses were subtracted, a total of 50 billion short tons of recoverable coal was calculated. Coal reserves are the portion of the recoverable coal that can be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit at the time of the economic evaluation. With a discounted cash flow at 8 percent rate of return, the coal reserves estimate for the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin assessment area is 1.5 billion short tons of coal (1 percent of the original resource total) for the seven coal beds evaluated.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator—A decision-support tool to estimate water availability at ungaged stream locations in Connecticut

Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow. Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site. In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent. An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series. The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.

Connecticut↗

USGS2024

Using camera traps to estimate site occupancy of invasive Argentine Black and White Tegus (Salvator merianae) in South Florida

The introduction of nonnative species is a leading cause of biodiversity loss. Many invasive species are cryptic or elusive in nature and therefore often evade detection, complicating their management. Occupancy modeling can reveal the presence and spread of invasive species over time and therefore has important management implications. Camera traps can be used to estimate occupancy, or the proportion of sites that are occupied by a target species. During a 4-year study (2016–2020), we used camera traps both with and without lures to detect the presence of invasive Salvator merianae (Argentine Black and White Tegu) at sites in Miami-Dade County, FL. Our results from a multi-season occupancy model revealed that a quadratic effect of ordinal day was the best predictor of detection, with a peak in June, while occupancy was correlated with distance to landscape features that may facilitate tegu movement. We did not detect any large-scale changes in occupancy over the course of our study. We also discovered that the use of lures with camera traps did not impact detection, indicating fewer resources would be required from invasive species managers for effective monitoring. Understanding the factors that impact occupancy and detection probabilities can inform surveillance and removal efforts, leading to more efficient management strategies.

Florida↗

USGS2010

Evolution of Ore Deposits and Technology Transfer Project: Isotope and Chemical Methods in Support of the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy, 2003-2008

Principal functions of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program are providing assessments of the location, quantity, and quality of undiscovered mineral deposits, and predicting the environmental impacts of exploration and mine development. The mineral and environmental assessments of domestic deposits are used by planners and decisionmakers to improve the stewardship of public lands and public resources. Assessments of undiscovered mineral deposits on a global scale reveal the potential availability of minerals to the United States and other countries that manufacture goods imported to the United States. These resources are of fundamental relevance to national and international economic and security policy in our globalized world economy. Performing mineral and environmental assessments requires that predictions be made of the likelihood of undiscovered deposits. The predictions are based on geologic and geoenvironmental models that are constructed for the diverse types of mineral deposits from detailed descriptions of actual deposits and detailed understanding of the processes that formed them. Over the past three decades the understanding of ore-forming processes has benefited greatly from the integration of laboratory-based geochemical tools with field observations and other data sources. Under the aegis of the Evolution of Ore Deposits and Technology Transfer Project (referred to hereinafter as the Project), a 5-year effort that terminated in 2008, the Mineral Resources Program provided state-of-the-art analytical capabilities to support applications of several related geochemical tools to ore-deposit-related studies. The analytical capabilities and scientific approaches developed within the Project have wide applicability within Earth-system science. For this reason the Project Laboratories represent a valuable catalyst for interdisciplinary collaborations of the type that should be formed in the coming years for the United States to meet its natural-resources and natural-science needs. This circular presents an overview of the Project. Descriptions of the Project laboratories are given first including descriptions of the types of chemical or isotopic analyses that are made and the utility of the measurements. This is followed by summaries of select measurements that were carried out by the Project scientists. The studies are grouped by science direction. Virtually all of them were collaborations with USGS colleagues or with scientists from other governmental agencies, academia, or the private sector.

Circular↗

USGS2011

Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ), wood frog ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), and Karner blue butterfly ( Plebejus melissa samuelis ). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2017

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

California↗

USGS2011

Assessing groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability throughout the United States to gain a better understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate may affect those resources. The goal of this National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for the Nation's principal aquifer systems to help characterize how much water is currently available, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). The concept of groundwater availability is more than just how much water can be pumped from any given aquifer. Groundwater availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The primary objective of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain groundwater-availability study is to identify spatial and temporal changes in the overall water budget by more fully determining the natural and human processes that control how water enters, moves through, and leaves the groundwater system. Development of tools such as numerical models can help hydrologists gain an understanding of this groundwater system, allowing forecasts to be made about the response of this system to natural and human stresses, and water quality and ecosystem health to be analyzed, throughout the region.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1989

Geohydrology, simulation of ground-water flow, and ground-water quality at two landfills, Marion County, Indiana

Geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality data were collected at the Julietta and Tibbs-Banta landfills in Marion County. Both landfills were closed in the mid-1970's, and sewage sludge mixed with dirt was spread on the landfills in the mid-1980's as part of a revegetation project. The landfills were constructed in unconsolidated glacial sediments that consist of sand, gravel, silt, and clay. The maximum thickness of the sediments is 180 feet at Julietta and 100 feet at Tibbs-Banta. Both landfills are underlain by sand and gravel aquifers and are adjacent to gaining streams. Ground water flows toward and into the streams at each study area. Two sand and gravel aquifers were mapped at Julietta and four were mapped at TibbsBanta. The aquifers are separated in places by discontinuous clay layers. Ground-water-flow models, calibrated to simulate steady-state low-flow conditions, indicate that about 19,000 gallons of water per day move through the refuse at Julietta and 42,000 gallons per day move through the refuse at Tibbs-Banta. The Julietta model also indicates that recharge through the surface of the landfill is less than in the surrounding natural areas, probably because of the addition and compaction of the sludge/soil mixture. Concentrations of dissolved inorganic substances in ground-water samples indicate that leachate from both landfills is reaching the shallow aquifers. The effect on deeper aquifers is small because of the predominance of horizontal ground-water flow and discharge to the streams. Increases in almost all dissolved constituents were observed in shallow wells that are screened beneath and downgradient from the landfills. Several analyses, especially those for bromide, dissolved solids, and ammonia, were useful in delineating the plume of leachate at both landfills.

Indiana↗

USGS2016

An integrated moral obligation model for landowner conservation norms

This study applies an integrated moral obligation model to examine the role of environmental and cultural values, and beliefs in the activation of landowner conservation norms. Data for this study were collected through a self-administered survey of riparian landowners in two Minnesota watersheds: Sand Creek and Vermillion River watersheds. Study findings suggest that collectivistic and biospheric–altruistic values form the bases for the activation of personal norms. Further, beliefs about local responsibility and ability to act influence personal norms to protect water resources. Findings suggest that landowners’ personal norms of water conservation are more likely to be activated by conservation strategies that appeal to biospheric–altruistic and collectivistic values, emphasize adverse consequences of water pollution, highlight water resource protection as a local responsibility, and provide the resources needed to protect water resources.

Society & Natural Resources: An International Jour↗

USGS2023

Sea-ice conditions predict polar bear land use around military installations in Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently opening the Arctic to natural resource extraction and a broader scope of national security responsibilities. Mitigating the risk of human–bear conflicts is an emerging challenge as many polar bears spend longer ice-free summers on land where they have limited access to food and come into more frequent contact with people. We investigated a suite of physical and ecological variables that influence the timing of polar bear arrival on, and departure from, land using remote-sensing data on sea-ice extent and satellite telemetry data from 72 radio-collared adult female polar bears from 1986 to 2015. Analyses encompassed the coastline of the Southern Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, USA, and focused on zones within a 35-km radius (mean daily travel distance of a polar bear) of 5 military installations. Sea ice in the Southern Beaufort Sea retreated approximately 1 month earlier in spring, and reformed 1 month later in fall, in 2015 compared to 1979. In generalized linear mixed models, the most important predictors of polar bear arrival and departure were the dates of sea-ice breakup and formation, respectively, in localized marine areas surrounding each military zone. Region-wide sea-ice conditions also influenced land use, although to a lesser extent. We found that polar bears spent longer periods on land in the military zones compared to outside the zones, which may reflect increased land use in areas with human activity and potential attractants (noting that some military installations were in proximity to other human settlements). Our results demonstrate that the timing of polar bear land use in northern Alaska is influenced by sea-ice conditions on multiple spatial scales. This information can be used to predict and manage the presence of polar bears around military installations and other places of interest.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

CRESCENT earthquake dynamic rupture, earthquake cycle, and tsunami code verification platform

Physics-based simulations are critical for understanding natural hazards. The increasing complexity of numerical codes requires benchmark exercises to verify that different computational methods yield consistent results when solving the same governing equations. Here, we present an open-access web platform designed for the verification of earthquake dynamic rupture, seismic cycle, and tsunami simulations. The platform architecture utilizes a modular, serverless backend on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide scalable file processing and visualization. A lightweight static web application provides a secure interface for uploading and managing results, while the browser-based data visualization enables interactive analysis of time series and surface grid data. By using structured JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) text files to define benchmark structures, the system remains fully extensible, allowing the addition of new scenarios without modifying the underlying software logic. The platform hosts the "The Tsunami Problem Versions" (TTPV) 1 & 2, two benchmarks for 3D fully coupled earthquake dynamic rupture and tsunami generation, and provides a framework for earthquake cycle models. This community resource aims to build trust in numerical simulations and facilitate long-term collaborative code verification as modeling software continues to evolve.

Seismica↗

USGS2011

Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and height of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Minnesota↗

USGS2003

Potential for saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer near Bonita Springs, southwestern Florida

A study was conducted to examine the potential for saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer beneath Bonita Springs in southwestern Florida. Field data were collected, and constant- and variable-density ground-water flow simulations were performed that: (1) spatially quantified modern and seasonal stresses, (2) identified potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion, and (3) estimated the potential extent of saltwater intrusion for the area of concern. MODFLOW and the inverse modeling routine UCODE were used to spatially quantify modern and seasonal stresses by calibrating a constant-density ground-water flow model to field data collected in 1996. The model was calibrated by assuming hydraulic conductivity parameters were accurate and by estimating unmonitored ground-water pumpage and potential evapotranspiration with UCODE. Uncertainty in these estimated parameters was quantified with 95-percent confidence intervals. These confidence intervals indicate more uncertainty (or less reliability) in the estimates of unmonitored ground-water pumpage than estimates of pan-evaporation multipliers, because of the nature and distribution of observations used during calibration. Comparison of simulated water levels, streamflows, and net recharge with field data suggests the model is a good representation of field conditions. Potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer include: (1) lateral inland movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface from the southwestern coast of Florida; (2) upward leakage from deeper saline water-bearing zones through natural upwelling and upconing, both of which could occur as diffuse upward flow through semiconfining layers, conduit flow through karst features, or pipe flow through leaky artesian wells; (3) downward leakage of saltwater from surface-water channels; and (4) movement of unflushed pockets of relict seawater. Of the many potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion, field data and variable-density ground-water flow simulations suggest that upconing is of utmost concern, and lateral encroachment is of second-most concern. This interpretation is uncertain, however, because the predominance of saltwater intrusion through leaky artesian wells with connection to deeper, more saline, and higher pressure aquifers was difficult to establish. Effective management of ground-water resources in southwestern Florida requires an understanding of the potential extent of saltwater intrusion in the lower Tamiami aquifer near Bonita Springs. Variable-density, ground-water flow simulations suggest that when saltwater is at dynamic equilibrium with 1996 seasonal stresses, the extent of saltwater intrusion is about 100 square kilometers areally and 70,000 hectare-meters volumetrically. The volumetric extent of saltwater intrusion was most sensitive to changes in recharge, ground-water pumpage, sea level, salinity of the Gulf of Mexico, and the potentiometric surface of the sandstone aquifer, respectively.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Exploring basin-scale relations and unsupervised classification to quantify and automate the definition of assessment units in USGS continuous oil and gas resource assessments

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assesses potential for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in priority geologic provinces and quantifies resource volume estimates within subdivisions called assessment units (AUs). AU boundaries are defined by USGS geologists using quantitative and qualitative geologic information. Variables contained in IHS Markit’s well and production databases can quantify and/or function as proxies for many of the qualitative, boundary-defining variables. This research explores a new approach to determine AU boundaries and the potential to automate their definition, using data analytics and machine learning algorithms on key, qualitative variables within the IHS Markit databases. Well and production data from the U.S. onshore Gulf Coast region for the Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Group and Austin Chalk are used in this analysis because each is relatively geologically uniform in Texas and both have recently been assessed by the USGS. The Eagle Ford is an example of an in situ continuous oil and gas accumulation, and the overlying Austin Chalk is an example of a combined conventional and continuous resource, sourced from the underlying Eagle Ford. Wellspecific values were extracted or calculated from data in IHS Markit’s well and production databases for depth to top and base of the formations, formation thickness, bottom-hole temperature, temperature gradient, temperature at base of formation, cumulative oil and gas production values, barrels of oil equivalent, oil and gas gravities, mud weights from initial well test, depth pressure ratio, and excess pressure. A raster for each variable was interpolated using the natural neighbor technique from the spatial analyst toolbox in ArcGIS. Rasters were then transformed using minimum-maximum scaling, which rescales the distribution to the range of 0–1. Clustering was completed using the iso cluster unsupervised classification tool on the normalized rasters. Raster cell groupings from two to ten were explored, with initial results demonstrating that four to six classes return the most differentiable groups, with depth to formation, oil gravity, pressure, and temperature variables containing the greatest between-group differences. Modeled clusters have spatial similarities to the geologically defined AUs, with indication that temperature and pressure are the most fundamental to AU definition. Input from geologists will remain crucial for further dividing clusters and defining final AUs, since AUs are defined by both qualitative and quantitative information; however, this research documents promising cluster modeling results for the automation of initial AU definitions.

Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2014

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the “social carrying capacity for development” – or SK d – for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem “acceptable” within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by −15.9% and −3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2023

Water, water everywhere, but every drop unique: Emerging challenges in the science to understand the role of contaminants in management of drinking water supplies

The protection and management of water resources continues to be challenged by multiple and ongoing factors such as shifts in demographic, social, economic, and public health requirements. Physical limitations placed on access to potable supplies include natural and human-caused factors such as aquifer depletion, aging infrastructure, saltwater intrusion, floods, and drought. These factors, although varying in magnitude, spatial extent, and timing, can exacerbate the potential for contaminants of concern (CECs) to be present in sources of drinking water, infrastructure, premise plumbing and associated tap water. This monograph examines how current and emerging scientific efforts and technologies increase our understanding of the range of CECs and drinking water issues facing current and future populations. It is not intended to be read in one sitting, but is instead a starting point for scientists wanting to learn more about the issues surrounding CECs. This text discusses the topical evolution CECs over time (Section 1), improvements in measuring chemical and microbial CECs, through both analysis of concentration and toxicity (Section 2) and modeling CEC exposure and fate (Section 3), forms of treatment effective at removing chemical and microbial CECs (Section 4), and potential for human health impacts from exposure to CECs (Section 5). The paper concludes with how changes to water quantity, both scarcity and surpluses, could affect water quality (Section 6). Taken together, these sections document the past 25 years of CEC research and the regulatory response to these contaminants, the current work to identify and monitor CECs and mitigate exposure, and the challenges facing the future.

GeoHealth↗