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Trade-offs in adapting to changes in climate, land use, and water availability in California

Changes in land use and land cover, water systems, and climate are inextricably linked, and their combined stresses have had severe impacts in many regions worldwide. Integrated adaptation planning can support adaptive capacity by helping institutions manage land and water resources at regional to local scales. Linkages between these stressors mean that planners are often faced with potential trade-offs, and how to couple social and environmental sustainability remains a key question. We explore these questions in California’s Central Coast, a region that is already experiencing serious water shortages, housing shortages, rapid expansion of perennial agriculture, and severe droughts that are projected to become worse with climate change. Linked models of land use change (the Land Use and Carbon + Water Simulator [LUCAS-W]), water resources (LUCAS-W), and climate (the Basin Characterization Model [BCM]) produced forecasts of exposure to regional changes at 270-m resolution. We worked with regional stakeholders to develop a matrix of nine vulnerability measures that assessed key sensitivities to these changes. Each vulnerability measure combined one of the three exposure projections with spatial datasets representing one of three sensitivity communities (agricultural, domestic, or ecological). We assessed how five scenarios of land-use and water management strategies under consideration by regional planners could provide institutional, top-down adaptive capacity, and whether there were trade-offs in sustainable development goals for these communities. We found that specific land and water management strategies could greatly reduce regional vulnerability, particularly programs to cap water extractions to sustainable levels. The most dramatic trade-off was between the strategy of water demand caps that increased risk of habitat loss and ecosystem preservation that increased water vulnerability. However, trade-offs were usually limited and spatially localized, suggesting local tailoring of the strategies we assessed could reduce them. Trade-offs were more frequent across exposure classes (land use vs. water vs. climate changes) rather than sensitivity classes (agricultural vs. domestic vs. ecological communities), suggesting win-win opportunities for natural resource management. Our vulnerability maps can inform prioritization efforts for local adaptation planning.

California↗

Hydrogeomorphic features mediate the effects of land use/cover on reservoir productivity and food webs

Although effects of land use/cover on nutrient concentrations in aquatic systems are well known, half or more of the variation in nutrient concentration remains unexplained by land use/cover alone. Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) landscape features can explain much remaining variation and influence food web interactions. To explore complex linkages among land use/cover, HGM features, reservoir productivity, and food webs, we sampled 11 Ohio reservoirs, ranging broadly in agricultural catchment land use/cover, for 3 years. We hypothesized that HGM features mediate the bottom-up effects of land use/cover on reservoir productivity, chlorophyll a , zooplankton, and recruitment of gizzard shad, an omnivorous fish species common throughout southeastern U.S. reservoirs and capable of exerting strong effects on food web and nutrient dynamics. We tested specific hypotheses using a model selection approach. Percent variation explained was highest for total nitrogen ( R 2 = 0.92), moderately high for total phosphorus, chlorophyll a , and rotifer biomass ( R 2 = 0.57 to 0.67), relatively low for crustacean zooplankton biomass and larval gizzard shad hatch abundance ( R 2 = 0.43 and 0.42), and high for larval gizzard shad survivor abundance ( R 2 = 0.79). The trophic status models included agricultural land use/cover and an HGM predictor, whereas the zooplankton models had few HGM predictors. The larval gizzard shad models had the highest complexity, including more than one HGM feature and food web components. We demonstrate the importance of integrating land use/cover, HGM features, and food web interactions to investigate critical interactions and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of linked land-water ecosystems.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

Land use statistics for West Virginia, Part I

The West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey and the United States Geological Survey have completed a cooperative program to provide land-use and land-cover maps and data for the State. This program begins to satisfy a longstanding need for a consistent level of detail, standardization in categorization, and scale of compilation for land-use and land-cover maps and data. The statistical information contained in this Bulletin provides land-use acreage tabulations for the first 20 counties that have been completed. Statistics are being compiled for the remaining counties and will be published shortly. This information has been derived from the recently completed Land-Use Map of West Virginia (on open file at the West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey - Environmental Section). In addition to land-use acreage, we have also included land-use percent. All statistics throughout this Bulletin are in the same format for ease of comparison.

West Virginia↗

Interim program for land cover mapping in Alaska utilizing Landsat digital data

The enactment of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) in 1980 imposed mandates on all major land management agencies in Alaska to prepare comprehensive resource and management plans to assess wildlife habitat, oil and gas exploration and development, wild and scenic river, land disposals, timber production, and archaeological and cultural resources, To meet these objective, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) has embarked on a plan to classify land cover for the entire State of Alaska using Landsat digital data. the USGS, in cooperation with other agencies, has completely Landsat-derived land use and land cover classification of 115 million acres for the State of Alaska. With this work as a substantial foundation, the USGS has prepared a comprehensive plan for classifying the remaining areas of Alaska. The development of this program will lead to a complete interim land use and land cover classification system for Alaska and provide for the dissemination of map products, statistics, and acreage summaries for all areas of Alaska at 1:250,000 scale. It also allows for the dissemination of Landsat digital data for those areas.

Alaska↗

Implementation strategy for production of National Land-Cover Data (NLCD) from the Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper satellite

As environmental programs within and outside the federal government continue to move away from point-based studies to larger and larger spatial (not cartographic) scale, the need for land-cover and other geographic data have become ineluctable. The national land-cover mapping project of MRLC marks the first consistently classified conterminous land-cover data set, effectively replacing USGS' Land Use Data Analysis (LUDA) system derived from high altitidue aerial photography acquired in the early 1970's. Because of the continually changing nature of the earth's surface due to anthropogenic activities and other factors, a single point-in-time land-cover product is insufficient for many applications. Production of a second point-in-time land-cover product is proposed as a database. That proposed database design includes: (1) second, independently classified land-cover data set derived from Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper data; (2) the land-cover product being produced under the current effort, (3) selected spectral-based change estimates (e.g., temporal NDVI), (4) thirty-meter DEMS; and (5) selected landscape metrics. Development of the database for the conterminous United States will start after evaluation of the prototype.

Technical Report↗

Non-native animals on public lands

Non-native plants and animals have become part of our surroundings, in cities, agricultural areas, and wildlands. While there are many beneficial purposes for non-native animals, such as for food and sport hunting and as agricultural animals, the introduction of some has had major negative economic consequences (Palmer 1899), and adverse effects on native wildlife, plants, and habitats. The British ecologist Charles Elton, in a major review of introduced species, described the increasing number of invasions as constituting "one of the great historical convulsions in the world's flora and fauna" (Elton 1958, p. 31). Non-native species are significant problems on large areas of state and federal public lands, and areas set aside to protect native plant and animal communities are not immune to such harm. Science and conservation journals have devoted entire issues to the threats posed by non-native plants and animals in nature reserves (e.g., Usher et al. 1988). In a compilation of threats to U.S. national parks, non-native plants and animals were the most often reported threat, and were reported by the most areas; feral cats ( Felis catus ), feral dogs ( Canis familiaris ), and wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) were the non-native animals cited most often (NPCA 1977). Non-native species present serious threats, but at the same time, coordinated efforts on public lands offer the best possibility for controlling some harmful non-native species, and protecting both native plant and animal communities and human interests and needs. We compiled information on non-native animals on public and private land-management areas by conducting a mail survey to assess their occurrence and management status in land-management areas. Survey results represent contributions from 937 national parks, national forests, national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management field areas, and state and private land-management areas. The results reflect those species that land managers considered of greatest concern, and their general distribution on public lands. Non-native invertebrate animals, particularly forest insects and agricultural pests, cause severe economic and environmental damage as well (OTA 1993), but were not the focus of this survey.

Book chapter↗

Land-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast

Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling from a historical land change record: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU; 1992–2016) and a recent-modern scenario (RM; 2002–2016). We modeled the scenarios in the stochastic, empirically based, spatially explicit LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model at a high resolution (270-m) for the years 2001–2100 across 10 Monte Carlo simulations, applying current land zoning restrictions. Under the BAU scenario, regional water demand increased by an estimated ~222.7 Mm 3 by 2100, driven by the continuation of perennial cropland expansion as well as higher than modern urbanization rates. Since 2000, mandates have been in place restricting new development unless adequate water resources could be identified. Despite these restrictions, water demand dramatically increased in the RM scenario by 310.6 Mm 3 by century’s end, driven by the projected continuation of dramatic orchard and vineyard expansion trends. Overall, increased perennial cropland leads to a near doubling to tripling perennial water demand by 2100. Our scenario projections can provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures based on observed land change and water use trends, helping to better inform land and resource management decisions.

California↗

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Ecosphere↗

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Divergent effects of land-use, propagule pressure, and climate on woody riparian invasion

Landscape-scale analyses of biological invasion are needed to understand the relative importance of environmental drivers that vary at larger scales, such as climate, propagule pressure, resource availability, and human disturbance. One poorly understood landscape-scale question is, how does human land-use influence riparian plant invasion? To evaluate the relative importance of land-use, climate, propagule pressure, and water availability in riparian invasion, we examined tamarisk ( Tamarix ramosissima, T. chinensis , hybrids), Russian olive ( Elaeagnus angustifolia ), and Siberian elm ( Ulmus pumila ) occurrence, abundance, and dominance in 238 riparian sites in developed, cultivated, and undeveloped areas of four western USA river basins (281,946 km 2 ). Temperature and propagule pressure from individuals planted nearby largely drove invasive species occurrence, whereas factors likely to affect resource availability (e.g., land-use, precipitation, streamflow intermittency) were more important to abundance and dominance, supporting the argument that species distribution models based on occurrence alone may fail to identify conditions where invasive species have the greatest impact. The role of land-use varied among taxa: urban and suburban land-use increased Siberian elm occurrence, abundance, and dominance, and urban land-use increased Russian olive occurrence, whereas suburban land-use reduced tamarisk dominance. Surprisingly, Siberian elm, which has received scant prior scientific and management attention, occurred as or more frequently than tamarisk and Russian olive (except in undeveloped areas of the Colorado River headwaters) and had higher density and dominance than tamarisk and Russian olive in developed areas. More research is needed to understand the impacts of this largely unrecognized invader on riparian ecosystem services, particularly in urban and suburban areas.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

Analysis of local slopes at the InSight landing site on Mars

To evaluate the topography of the surface within the InSight candidate landing ellipses, we generated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) at lander scales and those appropriate for entry, descent, and landing simulations, along with orthoimages of both images in each stereopair, and adirectional slope images. These products were used to assess the distribution of slopes for each candidate ellipse and terrain type in the landing site region, paying particular attention to how these slopes impact InSight landing and engineering safety, and results are reported here. Overall, this region has extremely low slopes at 1-meter baseline scales and meets the safety constraints of the InSight lander. The majority of the landing ellipse has a mean slope at 1-meter baselines of 3.2°. In addition, a mosaic of HRSC, CTX, and HiRISE DTMs within the final landing ellipse (ellipse 9) was generated to support entry, descent, and landing simulations and evaluations. Several methods were tested to generate this mosaic and the NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline program dem_mosaic produced the best results. For the HRSC-CTX-HiRISE DTM mosaic, more than 99 % of the mosaic has slopes less than 15°, and the introduction of artificially high slopes along image seams was minimized.

Space Science Reviews↗

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗

Land-cover change in the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000

Land-cover change in the conterminous United States was quantified by interpreting change from satellite imagery for a sample stratified by 84 ecoregions. Gross and net changes between 11 land-cover classes were estimated for 5 dates of Landsat imagery (1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000). An estimated 673,000 km 2 (8.6%) of the United States’ land area experienced a change in land cover at least one time during the study period. Forest cover experienced the largest net decline of any class with 97,000 km2 lost between 1973 and 2000. The large decline in forest cover was prominent in the two regions with the highest percent of overall change, the Marine West Coast Forests (24.5% of the region experienced a change in at least one time period) and the Eastern Temperate Forests (11.4% of the region with at least one change). Agriculture declined by approximately 90,000 km 2 with the largest annual net loss of 12,000 km 2 yr −1 occurring between 1986 and 1992. Developed area increased by 33% and with the rate of conversion to developed accelerating rate over time. The time interval with the highest annual rate of change of 47,000 km 2 yr −1 (0.6% per year) was 1986–1992. This national synthesis documents a spatially and temporally dynamic era of land change between 1973 and 2000. These results quantify land change based on a nationally consistent monitoring protocol and contribute fundamental estimates critical to developing understanding of the causes and consequences of land change in the conterminous United States.

Global Environmental Change↗

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

California↗

Mapping moderate-scale land-cover over very large geographic areas within a collaborative framework: A case study of the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP)

Land-cover mapping efforts within the USGS Gap Analysis Program have traditionally been state-centered; each state having the responsibility of implementing a project design for the geographic area within their state boundaries. The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) was the first formal GAP project designed at a regional, multi-state scale. The project area comprises the southwestern states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The land-cover map/dataset was generated using regionally consistent geospatial data (Landsat ETM+ imagery (1999-2001) and DEM derivatives), similar field data collection protocols, a standardized land-cover legend, and a common modeling approach (decision tree classifier). Partitioning of mapping responsibilities amongst the five collaborating states was organized around ecoregion-based "mapping zones". Over the course of 21/2 field seasons approximately 93,000 reference samples were collected directly, or obtained from other contemporary projects, for the land-cover modeling effort. The final map was made public in 2004 and contains 125 land-cover classes. An internal validation of 85 of the classes, representing 91% of the land area was performed. Agreement between withheld samples and the validated dataset was 61% (KHAT = .60, n = 17,030). This paper presents an overview of the methodologies used to create the regional land-cover dataset and highlights issues associated with large-area mapping within a coordinated, multi-institutional management framework. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Landsat continuity: Issues and opportunities for land cover monitoring

Initiated in 1972, the Landsat program has provided a continuous record of earth observation for 35 years. The assemblage of Landsat spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, over a reasonably sized image extent, results in imagery that can be processed to represent land cover over large areas with an amount of spatial detail that is absolutely unique and indispensable for monitoring, management, and scientific activities. Recent technical problems with the two existing Landsat satellites, and delays in the development and launch of a successor, increase the likelihood that a gap in Landsat continuity may occur. In this communication, we identify the key features of the Landsat program that have resulted in the extensive use of Landsat data for large area land cover mapping and monitoring. We then augment this list of key features by examining the data needs of existing large area land cover monitoring programs. Subsequently, we use this list as a basis for reviewing the current constellation of earth observation satellites to identify potential alternative data sources for large area land cover applications. Notions of a virtual constellation of satellites to meet large area land cover mapping and monitoring needs are also presented. Finally, research priorities that would facilitate the integration of these alternative data sources into existing large area land cover monitoring programs are identified. Continuity of the Landsat program and the measurements provided are critical for scientific, environmental, economic, and social purposes. It is difficult to overstate the importance of Landsat; there are no other systems in orbit, or planned for launch in the short-term, that can duplicate or approach replication, of the measurements and information conferred by Landsat. While technical and political options are being pursued, there is no satellite image data stream poised to enter the National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive should system failures occur to Landsat-5 and -7.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Improving land resource evaluation using fuzzy neural network ensembles

Land evaluation factors often contain continuous-, discrete- and nominal-valued attributes. In traditional land evaluation, these different attributes are usually graded into categorical indexes by land resource experts, and the evaluation results rely heavily on experts' experiences. In order to overcome the shortcoming, we presented a fuzzy neural network ensemble method that did not require grading the evaluation factors into categorical indexes and could evaluate land resources by using the three kinds of attribute values directly. A fuzzy back propagation neural network (BPNN), a fuzzy radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), a fuzzy BPNN ensemble, and a fuzzy RBFNN ensemble were used to evaluate the land resources in Guangdong Province. The evaluation results by using the fuzzy BPNN ensemble and the fuzzy RBFNN ensemble were much better than those by using the single fuzzy BPNN and the single fuzzy RBFNN, and the error rate of the single fuzzy RBFNN or fuzzy RBFNN ensemble was lower than that of the single fuzzy BPNN or fuzzy BPNN ensemble, respectively. By using the fuzzy neural network ensembles, the validity of land resource evaluation was improved and reliance on land evaluators' experiences was considerably reduced. ?? 2007 Soil Science Society of China.

Pedosphere↗

Influence of grazing and land use on stream-channel characteristics among small dairy farms in the Eastern United States

Rotational grazing (RG) is a livestock management practice that rotates grazing cattle on a scale of hours to days among small pastures termed paddocks. It may beneficially affect stream channels, relative to other livestock management practices. Such effects and other beneficial effects on hydrology are important to RG's potential to provide a highly multifunctional mode of livestock farming. Previous comparisons of effects of RG and confinement dairy (CD) on adjoining streams have been restricted in scale and scope. We examined 11 stream-channel characteristics on a representative sample of 37 small dairy farms that used either RG or CD production methods. Our objectives were: (1) to compare channel characteristics on RG and CD farms, as these production methods are implemented in practice, in New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, USA; and (2) to examine land use on these farms that may affect stream-channel characteristics. To help interpret channel characteristic findings, we examined on-farm land use in riparian areas 50 m in width along both sides of stream reaches and whole-farm land use. In all states, stream-channel characteristics on RG and CD farms did not differ. Whole-farm land use differed significantly between farm types; CD farms allocated more land to annual row crops, whereas RG farms allocated more land to pasture and grassland. However, land cover in 50 m riparian areas was not different between farm types within states; in particular, many RG and CD farms had continuously grazed pastures in riparian areas, typically occupied by juvenile and non-lactating cows, which may have contributed sediment and nutrients to streams. This similarity in riparian management practices may explain the observed similarity of farm types with respect to stream-channel characteristics. To realize the potential benefits of RG on streams, best management practices that affect stream-channel characteristics, such as protection of riparian areas, may improve aggregate effects of RG on stream quality and also enhance other environment, economic and social benefits of RG.

Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems↗