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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

Statistical power of dynamic occupancy models to identify temporal change: Informing the North American Bat Monitoring Program

Dynamic occupancy models provide a flexible framework for estimating and mapping species occupancy patterns over space and time for large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative). Challenges for designing surveys using the dynamic occupancy modeling framework include defining appropriate derived trend parameters, and providing usable tools for researchers to conduct project-specific sample size investigations. We present a simulation-based power analysis framework for dynamic occupancy models that allows for the incorporation of the underlying environmental space (i.e., as covariates) within a specific study region to inform sample size estimation. We investigate two definitions of temporal trend: (1) a gradual, sustained (linear or nonlinear) change over a period of many years, and (2) an abrupt increase or decrease between two time periods. We draw upon pilot data collected following NABat protocols to inform assumed data generating values in a demonstration of our approach. Due to the complicated parameter structure of dynamic occupancy models, we emphasize the importance of visualizing simulated changes over time based on different parameter settings prior to conducting a power analysis. Our simulations revealed that the linearity of short-term trends (five years in our investigation) conferred higher power with lower sample size than longer trends where occupancy probabilities approached zero (ten years in our investigation). We provide an example of how to use our tools to conduct customized investigations using questions posed by NABat, and in doing so, we shed light on general guidelines that can be applied to programs monitoring species occupancy for other taxa. Importantly, we created an R package to execute our approach for informing program-, species-, and study-specific investigations aimed at identifying changes in species occupancy.

Ecological Indicators↗

Modeling hydrodynamics and heat transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, and implications for water quality

The three-dimensional numerical model UnTRIM was used to model hydrodynamics and heat transport in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, between mid-June and mid-September in 2005 and between mid-May and mid-October in 2006. Data from as many as six meteorological stations were used to generate a spatially interpolated wind field to use as a forcing function. Solar radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity data all were available at one or more sites. In general, because the available data for all inflows and outflows did not adequately close the water budget as calculated from lake elevation and stage-capacity information, a residual inflow or outflow was used to assure closure of the water budget. Data used for calibration in 2005 included lake elevation at 3 water-level gages around the lake, water currents at 5 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sites, and temperature at 16 water-quality monitoring locations. The calibrated model accurately simulated the fluctuations of the surface of the lake caused by daily wind patterns. The use of a spatially variable surface wind interpolated from two sites on the lake and four sites on the shoreline generally resulted in more accurate simulation of the currents than the use of a spatially invariant surface wind as observed at only one site on the lake. The simulation of currents was most accurate at the deepest site (ADCP1, where the velocities were highest) using a spatially variable surface wind; the mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) for the depth-averaged speed over a 37-day simulation from July 26 to August 31, 2005, were 0.50 centimeter per second (cm/s) and 3.08 cm/s, respectively. Simulated currents at the remaining sites were less accurate and, in general, underestimated the measured currents. The maximum errors in simulated currents were at a site near the southern end of the trench at the mouth of Howard Bay (ADCP7), where the ME and RMSE in the depth-averaged speed were 3.02 and 4.38 cm/s, respectively. The range in ME of the temperature simulations over the same period was –0.94 to 0.73 degrees Celsius (°C), and the RMSE ranged from 0.43 to 1.12°C. The model adequately simulated periods of stratification in the deep trench when complete mixing did not occur for several days at a time. The model was validated using boundary conditions and forcing functions from 2006 without changing any calibration parameters. A spatially variable wind was used. Data for the model validation periods in 2006 included lake elevation at 4 gages around the lake, currents collected at 2 ADCP sites, and temperature collected at 21 water-quality monitoring locations. Errors generally were larger than in 2005. ME and RMSE in the simulated velocity at ADCP1 were 2.30 cm/s and 3.88 cm/s, respectively, for the same 37-day simulation over which errors were computed for 2005. The ME in temperature over the same period ranged from –0.56 to 1.5°C and the RMSE ranged from 0.41 to 1.86°C. Numerical experiments with conservative tracers were used to demonstrate the prevailing clockwise circulation patterns in the lake, and to show the influence of water from the deep trench located along the western shoreline of the lake on fish habitat in the northern part of the lake. Because water exiting the trench is split into two pathways, the numerical experiments indicate that bottom water from the trench has a stronger influence on water quality in the northern part of the lake, and surface water from the trench has a stronger influence on the southern part of the lake. This may be part of the explanation for why episodes of low dissolved oxygen tend to be more severe in the northern than in the southern part of the lake.

Oregon↗

Delineation of landform and lithologic units for Ecological Landtype-Association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park, Southeast Alaska

Landform and generalized bedrock lithologic units have been delineated for ecological landtype association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park in southeast Alaska (as the Park boundaries were defined before the 1971 Alaska National Interest Lands expansion). Related U.S. Forest Service efforts have covered (1) the whole region at coarse ecological- unit scale, including domains, divisions, provinces, sections, and subsections; and (2) small parts the region at subsection scale. These small parts are generally forest-covered shoreline to timberline areas with relatively subdued topography, extensive bedrock exposures, and no active glaciers. The detailed studies established that the combination of landform and bedrock-lithologic information was a good indicator of ecosystem productivity and types of plant communities. This study of Glacier Bay National Park covers areas similar to those of the detailed studies but also includes a large proportion of high (15,300 feet), glacier-clad alpine terrain and large, active-valley glacier systems. This terrain reflects (1) the orographic and microclimatic effects associated with the high-altitude barrier that is the Fairweather Range part of the St. Elias Mountains and its rapidly retreating glaciers, and (2) the geologic, tectonic, and erosional history of this range. In this study, landforms were classified-by using topographic maps and personal experience-into eight categories similar to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. The 90 bedrock-lithologic units on the current Glacier Bay geologic map were classified into 13 generalized lithologic units corresponding exactly to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. Incomplete storm-track, storm-intensity, and limited climatic information have also been compiled.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States

The glacial aquifer system, which is a collection of aquifers within Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States, is a principal aquifer that supplies groundwater that serves about 42 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. This aquifer system (the area of maximum glacial advance) underlies parts of 25 States and covers 1.87×10 6 square kilometers. A hydrogeologic framework is presented that divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping. Each hydrogeologic terrane contains Quaternary sediment that is derived from a common depositional history and can be characterized by similar texture and thickness. Characteristics of Quaternary sediments are described using attributes computed from a lithologic database of well logs compiled from 24 States (excluding Kentucky). The hydrogeologic framework presents a nationwide picture of the glacial aquifer system and provides generalizations concerning the nature of aquifers within it (for example, whether the aquifers are shallow or deep, and unconfined or confined). In this way insights can be gained from understanding the similarities and differences in distinct parts of the glacial aquifer system and how they relate to water use and quality and to aquifer vulnerability. Delineation of hydrogeologic terranes was based on an interpretation of existing geologic mapping of Quaternary sediments and the thickness of unconsolidated material. Overall thickness of Quaternary sediment was used to qualitatively rank the generalized complexity of the hydrogeologic framework in each terrane: “lower” complexity (assigned a terrane code 1), “moderate” complexity (terrane code 2), and “higher” complexity (terrane code 3). Letter designations appended to the terrane codes (for example, 1A, 1B, or 1C) differentiate terranes of similar complexity. Two unique areas, where thick, stratified, coarse-grained sediment dominates, were assigned terrane code 4. Elements of this hydrogeologic framework include a glacial environments and surficial sediments geodatabase, which includes lithologic, geomorphic, and stratigraphic characterization of Quaternary sediments based on previous mapping; a gridded database of sediment and aquifer characteristics computed from lithologic logs obtained from water-well driller records; a water-use database with information on public-water supply systems and sources of groundwater; and estimated recharge computed from a geologically based soil-water balance model. A generalized map of the bedrock geology based on previous State-level mapping is included as well. Quaternary sediment in the glaciated United States includes glacial, postglacial (Holocene) and nonglacial sediments. At land surface, 60 percent of the glacial sediment is till. Large areas of outwash and ice contact sediments are extensive throughout the Midwest but generally are confined to valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lacustrine sediments were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the present Great Lakes and in glacial Lake Agassiz in the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. The median thickness of Quaternary sediment ranges from 6 to 45 meters across the 17 hydrogeologic terranes, but the maximum thickness is more than 500 meters in some areas. Quaternary sediments generally contain less than 10 percent coarse material; the median range is near zero percent under till to about 50 percent under ice contact and outwash sediments. About 80 percent of the coarse material lies within 25 to 40 meters of land surface. In most of the glaciated United States, there is a small likelihood of penetrating an aquifer-material interval containing coarse material at least 3 meters thick. A single aquifer-material interval was recorded in about 44 percent of lithologic logs, whereas about 11 percent of the logs penetrated multiple intervals. About 44 percent of water wells in the lithologic database are completed in Quaternary sediment, and many of these Quaternary water wells (42 percent) are confined by at least 7.5 meters of fine materials. About 33 percent of these Quaternary water wells are unconfined—the remainder are where only thin layers (less than 3 meters) of coarse material are present. The median depths of Quaternary water wells range from 13 to 40 meters among the 17 hydrogeologic terranes. Recharge ranges from more than 400 millimeters per year in the Northeast to 11 millimeters or less per year in the Dakotas and Montana (median value of 136 millimeters per year). Annual groundwater withdrawals compiled by county range on an areal basis from less than 1 to 370 millimeters per year, and the mean is 7.4 millimeters per year. About 36 percent of the withdrawals are for public-water supply, of which 70 percent are derived from Quaternary sediments. Groundwater withdrawals are less than 10 percent of recharge throughout most of the glaciated conterminous United States but are a larger proportion of recharge near urban areas in the Northeast and the Midwest, and in counties throughout drier parts of the Midwest. The salient characteristics of the 17 hydrogeologic terranes are presented through maps and a set of descriptive plots to facilitate visual comparisons between selected sediment and aquifer characteristics. The thickness of Quaternary sediment generally increases from the lower complexity terranes through the higher complexity terranes, consistent with their delineation. Median proportions of coarse material in Quaternary sediment and depths to aquifer-material intervals are highly variable (less than 10 to 50 percent, and 0 to 30 meters, respectively). Median thicknesses of aquifer-material intervals generally fall within a narrow range (10 to 20 meters), except in two terranes that contain thick coarse-grained sediment (30 to 35 meters). The source of water in wells varies from mostly bedrock wells in the lower complexity terranes to mostly Quaternary wells in the higher complexity terranes where the sediment is thickest. A tree diagram compiled from a hierarchical cluster analysis of a matrix composed of metrics based on sediment and aquifer characteristics, and the distribution of water wells in each terrane, indicates some groups of terranes that can be treated as comparable when analyzing groundwater flow and quality. Aquifer-material intervals indicated on maps prepared from the lithologic logs, including unconfined and confined conditions, correlate well with aquifer systems delineated on state maps for Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota. The large scale of the study limits the resolution at which the maps can be interpreted, however, and alluvial units are not mapped correctly for some valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lithologic logs used in the study are biased toward shallow depths because not all logs penetrate the entire thickness of Quaternary sediment, but this bias should not limit the utility of the sediment and aquifer descriptions because shallow depths are commonly exploited for water supply. The hydrogeologic framework will support ongoing studies of groundwater flow and quality in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment program for the glaciated United States.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Partridge River Basin and evaluation of hypothetical future mine pits, Minnesota

The Partridge River Basin (PRB) covers 156 square miles in northeastern Minnesota with headwaters in the Mesabi Iron Range. The basin is characterized by extensive wetlands, lakes, and streams in poorly drained and often thin glacial material overlying Proterozoic bedrock. To better understand the interaction between these extensive surface water features and the groundwater system, a three-dimensional, steady-state, groundwater-flow model of the PRB was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Great Lakes Indian Fish & Wildlife Commission using the finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state base flow in streams and groundwater interactions using the streamflow routing (SFR2) package. Existing mining features including tailings basins, stockpiles, pumped mine pits, and flooded mine pits were simulated using either high hydraulic conductivity zones or the drain (DRN) package. The unsaturated zone flow (UZF) package was used to better represent the groundwater system in areas with a high water table and for wetlands often associated with such areas. UZF typically is used to represent unsaturated zone processes but also can simulate the rejection of recharge and groundwater discharge to the land surface when the water table is near land surface. The steady-state model used data from the 2011 to 2013 period when 2011 high-resolution land surface (light detecting and ranging [lidar]) data were available that reflected land-surface and water elevations from mining activity in the basin. The parameter-estimation software suite PEST_HP was used to obtain a best fit of the modeled to measured groundwater levels, streamflow, pit inflow rates, and mapped peat deposits. The PEST calibration used the target residuals from two models with the same model parameters and targets from two separate periods: (1) a 1995–2015 calibration model, which provided a larger number of calibration targets, and (2) a 2011–2013 mining conditions model, which included calibration targets that reflected conditions consistent with the modeled mine-workings topography. Calibration of the PRB model resulted in ranges of glacial horizontal hydraulic conductivity parameters that generally agreed with literature values and other models of the region. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock was higher in the upper bedrock layers where numerous and continuous fractures have been observed and lower in the deeper bedrock layers. Average basin-wide calibrated infiltration was 5.3 inches per year. An average of 4.6 inches per year of infiltration crosses the water table and becomes recharge and 0.7 inch per year is rejected by UZF due to saturated conditions at the land surface. Simulated groundwater runoff (the sum of rejected recharge and groundwater seepage to the land surface) can either be routed to streams or removed from the model as evapotranspiration. The calibrated model indicates relatively shallow groundwater-flow paths dominating and approximately 50 percent of the stream base flow coming from groundwater runoff. The 2011–2013 mining conditions model was then used to develop five model scenarios simulating the response of the groundwater and surface-water system to potential hydrologic stress. The purpose of these mine pit scenarios is to present a possible workflow to quantify a model’s uncertainty for a given model forecast and serve as a possible guide for initial data collection that may improve a future model’s ability to make such a forecast. The scenarios included one scenario with the currently existing Peter Mitchell pit at final buildout and flooded to an elevation of 1,500 feet, and four scenarios with a hypothetical, new mine pit plus the flooded Peter Mitchell at final buildout. The five model scenarios were used to forecast streamflow at six locations in the PRB, pit inflow rates for the new mine pits and the flooded Peter Mitchell pit, and the average depth to water in 12 wetlands. A linear uncertainty analysis was performed using information from the PEST calibration and tools in the PyEMU python package to assess model uncertainty propagation to the model forecasts. Streamflows generally were reduced with future mining and the greatest streamflow reductions occurred from the flooded Peter Mitchell Pit, probably due to its large size. Average depth to groundwater in wetlands was most affected the closer the wetland was to a new mine pit. Linear uncertainty methods were also used to evaluate data worth, which is the ability for potential new groundwater elevation observations to reduce the uncertainty in scenario forecasts. Data worth was performed for a grid of new hydraulic head observations. Overall, areas with nonnegligible data worth generally corresponded to wetland areas with no groundwater seepage to land surface from UZF. These model behaviors indicated that the land-surface boundary condition simulated by the UZF package was pinning the groundwater elevations to the land surface in areas with groundwater seepage (33 percent of the 2011–2013 base conditions model) such that the sensitivity to new observations in these areas was minimal. Therefore, representing wetlands as boundary conditions minimized the usefulness of data worth calculations because wetland areas were present over a large part of the model domain. Probabilistic capture zones were estimated for each of the mines in the model scenarios. A capture zone represents the area contributing recharge to a model feature, like a well or a mine pit, and can be calculated by forward tracking particles from the water table. By using Monte Carlo techniques, it is possible to generate estimated capture zones that include the probability of recharge capture given the uncertainty present in the model. Monte Carlo techniques use randomly generated model parameter sets sampled from a plausible parameter range to create many possible realizations. The resulting capture zone arrays were calculated by tallying the total number of realizations in which a particle from a model cell was captured by the feature. Probabilities from the Monte Carlo runs ranged from 1 (captured in 100 percent of the runs) near the pits to 0 (captured in 0 percent of the runs) at the edges of the capture zone. Capture zones were not always spatially continuous; for example, the capture zone for the proposed mine pits south of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit was discontinuous with capture surrounding the proposed mine pit and north of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit. This northern section represents deeper groundwater flow paths that originate in the topographic high, move under the flooded pit, and discharge into the proposed pit. This pattern of capture indicates the possibility of some deeper flow through the upper fractured bedrock when the shallow groundwater flow system is modified. These results underscore that future site-specific applications of the base condition model require the input of site-specific data and recalibration to focus on the site of interest.

Minnesota↗

Heat as a tool for studying the movement of ground water near streams

Stream temperature has long been recognized as an important water quality parameter. Temperature plays a key role in the health of a stream’s aquatic life, both in the water column and in the benthic habitat of streambed sediments. Many fish are sensitive to temperature. For example, anadromous salmon require specific temperature ranges to successfully develop, migrate, and spawn [see Halupka and others, 2000]. Metabolic rates, oxygen requirements and availability, predation patterns, and susceptibility of organisms to contaminants are but a few of the many environmental responses regulated by temperature. Hydrologists traditionally treated streams and ground water as distinct, independent resources to be utilized and managed separately. With increasing demands on water supplies, however, hydrologists realized that streams and ground water are parts of a single, interconnected resource [see Winter and others, 1998]. Attempts to distinguish these resources for analytical or regulatory purposes are fraught with difficulty because each domain can supply (or drain) the other, with attendant possibilities for contamination exchange. Sustained depletion of one resource usually results in depletion of the other, propagating adverse effects within the watershed. An understanding of the interconnections between surface water and ground water is therefore essential. This understanding is still incomplete, but receiving growing attention from the research community. Exchanges between streams and shallow ground-water systems play a key role in controlling temperatures not only in streams, but also in their underlying sediments. As a result, analyses of subsurface temperature patterns provide information about surface-water/ground-water interactions. Chemical tracers are commonly used for tracing flow between streams and ground water. Introduction of chemical tracers in near-stream environments is, however, limited by real and perceived issues regarding introduced contamination and practical constraints. As an alternative, naturally occurring variations in temperature can be used to track (or trace) the heat carried by flowing water. The hydraulic transport of heat enables its use as a tracer. Differences between temperatures in the stream and surrounding sediments are now being analyzed to trace the movement of ground water to and from streams. As shown in the subsequent chapters of this circular, tracing the transport of heat leads to a better understanding of the magnitudes and mechanisms of stream/ground-water exchanges, and helps quantify the resulting effects on stream and streambed temperatures. Chapter 1 describes the general principals and procedures by which the natural transport of heat can be utilized to infer the movement of subsurface water near streams. This information sets the foundation for understanding the advanced applications in chapters 2 through 8. Each of these chapters provides a case study, using heat tracing as a tool, of interactions between surface water and ground water for a different location in the western United States. Technical details of the use of heat as an environmental tracer appear in appendices.

Circular↗

Procedures for the use of aircraft in wildlife biotelemetry studies

This is a report on the state of the art methodology and on questions that arise while one is preparing to use aircraft in a biotelemetry study. In general the first step in preparing to mount an antenna on an aircraft is to consult with a certified aircraft mechanic. Aircraft certification is discussed to provide background information concerning the role of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in regulating the use of biotelemetry antennas on aircraft. However, approval of any specific design of antenna mount rests with local FAA authority. Airplane and helicopter antenna attachments are described. Performance of the receiving antenna system is discussed with emphasis on how variables as aircraft type and antenna configuration may influence reception. The side-looking vs. front-looking antenna configuration and the VHF vs. HF frequency band are generally recommended for most aerial tracking studies. Characteristics of receivers, transmitters, and antennas that might influence tracking are discussed. Specific topics such as calibration of receivers and transmitter quality control are considered. Suggestions in preparing for and conducting tracking flights that will improve overall efficiency and safety are presented. Search techniques, including procedures for conducting large and specific area surveys as well as methods to improve and evaluate search efficiency, are discussed. A concluding section considers special topics such as low-level operations and the use of helicopters. Diagrams of antenna mounts, equipment check-off lists, and antenna test procedures are included as appendices.

Resource Publication↗

A two-dimensional, reach-scale implementation of space-time image velocimetry (STIV) and comparison to particle image velocimetry (PIV)

Image-based algorithms have become a powerful tool for estimating flow velocities in rivers. In this study, we generalize the space-time image velocimetry (STIV) framework for reach-scale application rather than along a cross section. The new algorithm provides information on both the magnitude and orientation of velocity vectors, and we refer to the algorithm as two-dimensional STIV, or 2D-STIV. The workflow involves setting up a grid, using centreline tangent vectors as initial estimates of flow direction, and then extracting space-time images (STIs) along search lines radiating from each grid node. The autocorrelation function is used to infer the inclination of streak lines present in STIs, which represents the advection of water surface features. Information on flow direction is obtained by evaluating various candidate search lines and identifying that which yields the highest velocity. This search can be performed exhaustively or via optimization. We applied the new 2D-STIV algorithm to three test cases, one simulated data set and two natural channels, and compared image-derived velocities to modelled or measured values. We also applied two established particle image velocimetry (PIV) algorithms to the same data sets. 2D-STIV performed as well as the two PIV algorithms for simulated images. For a natural river with distinct water surface features, 2D-STIV was effective for much of the channel but also led to a more patchy, irregular velocity field than the two PIV algorithms. For a site lacking obvious surface features, exhaustive 2D-STIV led to velocity estimates uncorrelated with field data while the optimization-based version produced erratic flow directions. 2D-STIV also required greater image sequence durations, higher frame rates, and generally longer computational run times. Overall, ensemble PIV was the most reliable algorithm.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

Comment on 'Kidron (2018): Biocrust research: A critical view on eight common hydrological‐related paradigms and dubious theses. Ecohydrology, e2061'

Kidron (2018) uses a straw man argument in an attempt to debunk eight putative hydrological‐related paradigms he believes to be “common among hydrologists, ecologists, or microbiologists that investigate biocrusts.” These paradigms relate to the roles of physical crusts and vascular plants in biocrust development, the major drivers (climate, porosity, hydrophobicity, and exopolysaccharides) of hydrology (infiltration and runoff), and the effect of mosses on hydrology and therefore vascular plants. We see two major problems with his arguments. First, they assume that the paradigms in question are generally accepted by biocrust researchers. Second, they are based on Kidron's (2018) world view of biocrusts, which has largely been informed by his own studies from a single, distinctly unique area of sand dunes at the Nizzana Research Site in the Negev Desert, Israel. This narrow focus and the selective use of published material disqualify his arguments. Our collective experience, based on more than 250 person years of biocrust research, and more than 700 scientific publications on biocrusts from all continents including Antarctica, indicates that, far from the straw man arguments proposed by Kidron (2018), there is no evidence to support the existence of a unifying theory that captures the global effects of biocrusts on hydrology. Our collective works demonstrate that, contrary to claims by Kidron (2018), the hydrological effects of biocrusts are strongly nuanced, varying with, but not limited to, differences in ecological context, landscape position, site condition, crust type and composition, climatic zone, soil texture and porosity, surface morphology, and spatial scale (reviewed in Weber, Büdel, & Belnap, 2016). Below, we critically analyse each of Kidron's (2018) paradigms, providing rigorous empirical evidence to show that none represent commonly held views among the biocrust research community.

Ecohydrology↗

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

Morphology and composition of Goldeye (Hiodontidae; Hiodon alosoides) otoliths

We provide up-to-date morphological and compositional data on otoliths of the osteoglossomorph Goldeye ( Hiodon alosoides ). Using computed tomography (CT) X-ray, we documented the location of each of the three pairs of otoliths (lapilli, sagittae, and asterisci) in relation to the swim bladder, which extended forward in close proximity to the sagittae and asterisci. The lappili were the largest otoliths in terms of surface area and volume, but the sagittae were highly modified, appearing spiral in shape when viewed dorsally, with a surface area to volume ratio more than double that of the lapilli. Using scanning electron microscopy, the surface of each otolith was viewable in great detail, and small otoconia (~10.5 μm diameter) were observed on each, but were most numerous on the sagittae. On scanning electron micrographs, the sagittae appeared to be bi-lobed, with asymmetrical lobes each oriented in the same general direction. Using neutron and X-ray diffraction methods, we found three polymorphs of calcium carbonate crystals (aragonite, vaterite, and calcite), sometimes all within the same otolith. However, in general, lapilli and sagittae were composed predominately of aragonite whereas asterisci were composed chiefly of vaterite. With these results, we provide information on a unique species, whose inclusion in future studies would benefit our understanding of fish hearing, fish evolution, and fisheries ecology.

Journal of Morphology↗

A method for quantifying cloud immersion in a tropical mountain forest using time-lapse photography

Quantifying the frequency, duration, and elevation range of fog or cloud immersion is essential to estimate cloud water deposition in water budgets and to understand the ecohydrology of cloud forests. The goal of this study was to develop a low-cost and high spatial-coverage method to detect occurrence of cloud immersion within a mountain cloud forest by using time-lapse photography. Trail cameras and temperature/relative humidity sensors were deployed at five sites covering the elevation range from the assumed lifting condensation level to the mountain peaks in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Cloud-sensitive image characteristics (contrast, the coefficient of variation and the entropy of pixel luminance, and image colorfulness) were used with a k -means clustering approach to accurately detect cloud-immersed conditions in a time series of images from March 2014 to May 2016. Images provided hydrologically meaningful cloud-immersion information while temperature-relative humidity data were used to refine the image analysis using dew point information and provided temperature gradients along the elevation transect. Validation of the image processing method with human-judgment based classification generally indicated greater than 90% accuracy. Cloud-immersion frequency averaged 80% at sites above 900 m during nighttime hours and 49% during daytime hours, and was consistent with diurnal patterns of cloud immersion measured in a previous study. Results for the 617 m site demonstrated that cloud immersion in the Luquillo Mountains rarely occurs at the previously-reported cloud base elevation of about 600 m (11% during nighttime hours and 5% during daytime hours). The framework presented in this paper will be used to monitor at a low cost and high spatial resolution the long-term variability of cloud-immersion patterns in the Luquillo Mountains, and can be applied to ecohydrology research at other cloud-forest sites or in coastal ecosystems with advective sea fog.

El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico↗

Optimum temperature for growth and preferred temperatures of age-0 lake trout

This study was performed to determine the thermal preferences and optimum temperature for growth of age-0 lake trout Salvelinus namaycush to help predict the thermal habitat they select when they leave the spawning grounds and to assess the risk posed to them in the Great Lakes by piscivorus, nonnative fishes whose thermal habitat preferences are known. The test fish were hatched in the laboratory from eggs taken from wild fish, acclimated to 5, 10, 15, and 18°C, and fed to excess with commercial trout food for 47 d. The test fish grew at all of the temperatures, and the specific growth rate was highest at about 12.5°C (3.8% wet body weight/d). Fish used in the growth study were also tested in a vertical thermal gradient tank and had a final thermal preferendum between 10.1°C and 10.2°C. These results, which generally agreed with those of an earlier laboratory study of the temperature preference of age-1 lake trout and the limited information on thermal habitat use by age-0 lake trout in the Great Lakes, indicated age-0 lake trout would tend to seek temperatures near 10°C, or as high as 12.5°C, during summer if food was abundant. Published information on thermal habitat use of age-1 and adult alewives Alosa pseudoharengus and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax indicated they would be expected to co-occur with age-0 lake trout during much of the time when the lake trout were small enough to be eaten by these two introduced piscivores.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

How do en route events around the Gulf of Mexico influence landbird populations

Habitats around the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide critical resources for Nearctic–Neotropical migratory landbirds, the majority of which travel across or around the GOM every spring and fall as they migrate between temperate breeding grounds in North America and tropical wintering grounds in the Caribbean and Central and South America. At the same time, ecosystems in the GOM are changing rapidly, with unknown consequences for migratory landbird populations, many of which are experiencing population declines. In general, the extent to which events encountered en route limit migratory bird populations is not well understood. At the same time, information from weather surveillance radar, stable isotopes, tracking, eBird, and genetic datasets is increasingly available to address many of the unanswered questions about bird populations that migrate through stopover and airspace habitats in the GOM. We review the state of the science and identify key research needs to understand the impacts of en route events around the GOM region on populations of intercontinental landbird migrants that breed in North America, including: (1) distribution, timing, and habitat associations; (2) habitat characteristics and quality; (3) migratory connectivity; and (4) threats to and current conservation status of airspace and stopover habitats. Finally, we also call for the development of unified and comprehensive long-term monitoring guidelines and international partnerships to advance our understanding of the role of habitats around the GOM in supporting migratory landbird populations moving between temperate breeding grounds and wintering grounds in Mexico, Central and South America, and the Caribbean.

The Condor↗

Phylogeographic analysis of Mudpuppies (Necturus maculosus)

The geology of the Pleistocene, and particularly the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 26.5 ka, is a critical driver of species’ present-day distributions and levels of genetic diversity in northern regions. Using mitochondrial DNA sequence data, we tested several predictions relating to the postglacial recolonization of the northern United States and southern Canada by Mudpuppies (Necturus maculosus). Our analyses revealed a significant split between western and eastern lineages, with the divide corresponding to the location of the Mississippi River. Our data support the presence of one or more Mississippian glacial refugia, with subsequent expansion and diversification of a western cluster into the upper Midwest, and an eastern cluster into the eastern Great Lakes and New England. As predicted in cases of postglacial colonization, each of these clusters contains a single widespread and common haplotype, along with numerous low-frequency, closely related haplotypes. Given recent conservation concerns about amphibians in general, and Mudpuppies specifically, we discuss our results in light of species conservation. Knowledge of a species’ genetic diversity allows for informed management and facilitates decisions that preserve local adaptation and evolutionary potential.

Journal of Herpetology↗

Shippingport, Kentucky, is the type locality for the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus (Rafinesque, 1818) (Mammalia: Rodentia: Cricetidae)

The white-footed mouse, Musculus leucopus Rafinesque, 1818 (= Peromyscus leucopus), is a common small mammal that is widespread in the eastern and central United States. Its abundance in many habitats renders it ecologically important, and its status as a reservoir for hantavirus and Lyme disease gives the species medical and economic significance. The recognition of two cytotypes and up to 17 morphological subspecies of P. leucopus indicates considerable variation in the species, and to understand this variation, it is important that the nominate subspecies be adequately defined so as to act as a standard for comparison. Relevant to this standard for the white-footed mouse is its type locality, which has generally been accepted to be either the vague "pine barrens of Kentucky" or the mouth of the Ohio River. Newly assembled information regarding the life and travels of Constantine S. Rafinesque, the North American naturalist who described P. leucopus , establishes that Rafinesque observed this species in July 1818 while visiting Shippingport, Kentucky, which is now within the city limits of Louisville, Jefferson Co., Kentucky. Shippingport is therefore the actual type locality for this species.

Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washingto↗

Structure of the Tucson Basin, Arizona from gravity and aeromagnetic data

Interpretation of gravity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data reveal the three-dimensional geometry of the Tuscson Basin, Arizona and the lithology of its basement. Limited drill hole and seismic data indicate that the maximum depth to the crystalline basement is approximately 3600 meters and that the sedimentary sequences in the upper ~2000 m of the basin were deposited during the most recent extensional episode that commenced about 13 Ma. The negative density contrasts between these upper Neogene and Quaternary sedimentary sequences and the adjacent country rock produce a Bouguer residual gravity low, whose steep gradients clearly define the lateral extent of the upper ~2000m of the basin. The aeromagnetic maps show large positive anomalies associated with deeply buried, late Cretaceous-early Tertiary and mid-Tertiary igneous rocks at and below the surface of the basin. These magnetic anomalies provide insight into the older (>13 Ma) and deeper structures of the basin. Simultaneous 2.5-dimensional modeling of both gravity and magnetic anomalies constrained by geologic and seismic data delineates the thickness of the basin and the dips of the buried faults that bound the basin. This geologic-based forward modeling approach to using geophysical data is shown to result in more information about the geologic and tectonic history of the basin as well as more accurate depth to basement determinations than using generalized geophysical inversion techniques.

Open-File Report↗

CHIPS: A New Way to Monitor Colonias Along the United States-Mexico Border

Colonias, which are unincorporated border settlements in the United States, have emerged in rural areas without the governance and services normally provided by local government. Colonia residents live in poverty and lack adequate health care, potable water, and sanitation systems. These conditions create substantial health risks for colonias and surrounding communities. By 2001, more than 1,400 colonias were identified in Texas. Cooperation with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Offices of the Texas Attorney General, Secretary of State, and the Texas Water Development Board has allowed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to improve colonia Geographic Information System (GIS) boundaries and develop the Colonia Health, Infrastructure, and Platting Status tool (CHIPS). Together, the GIS boundaries and CHIPS aid the Texas government in prioritizing the limited funds that are available for infrastructure improvement. CHIPS's report generator can be tailored to the needs of the user, providing either broad or specific output. For example, a congressman could use CHIPS to list colonias with wastewater issues in a specific county, whereas a health researcher could list all colonias without clinical access. To help cities along the United States-Mexico border manage issues related to colonias growth, CHIPS will become publicly available in an Internet-enabled GIS as part of a cooperative study between the USGS, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica.

Open-File Report↗