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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Population ecology of variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in Virginia

Variegate darters ( Etheostoma variatum ) were listed as endangered in Virginia in 1992. Reasons for listing included habitat degradation and concerns about current and future impacts of coal mining throughout their Virginia range. Prior to this research, little was known about variegate darter distribution, habitat use, or populations in Virginia. Two primary goals of this research were to gain knowledge about the current population ecology and the relationship between landscape-level factors (e.g., land cover changes, watershed size, isolation from other populations) on current and past variegate darter population sizes. We investigated distribution, habitat suitability, population genetics, and population size and structure of variegate darters in the upper Big Sandy River drainage, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Wise Co., Virginia. Our results indicate variegate darters are primarily found in the Levisa Fork, with highest densities and abundances between its confluence with Dismal Creek and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Sporadic occurrences in smaller tributaries to the Levisa and Tug forks indicate they exist more widely in low densities, especially near the confluence with the Tug and Levisa mainstems. Detection of variegate darters in smaller tributaries was inconsistent, with reach-level occupancy estimates varying among years. We detected young-of-year variegate darters every year we sampled, but age 1 + darters were indistinguishable from older darters based on standard length. Variegate darter population size and stability in Virginia were estimated via multiple methods, including site occupancy surveys, mark-recapture studies, and population genetic analysis. Using mark-recapture methods at five sites, we estimated overall population size in 2011 to be approximately 12,800 individuals in the 35-km reach between the Levisa Fork - Dismal Creek confluence and the Virginia-Kentucky border. Age structure seemed stable, with breeding adults and young-of-year collected annually during 2008-2011. Population genetic analysis indicated variegate darters in the Levisa Fork and its tributaries are part of a single genetic population. Historical and current genetic stability were seen in our analysis of the variegate darter population, with no genetic differentiation among riffles across the upper Levisa Fork watershed, indicating dispersal among these sites is enough to overcome random genetic drift. This population is genetically isolated from downstream populations by the dam at Fishtrap Lake, Pike Co., Kentucky, and is beginning to show genetic isolation from other nearby populations. As expected, the Virginia population is most closely related to those in the Russell Fork and Levisa Fork downstream of the dam. Regular monitoring of variegate darters in the Levisa Fork mainstem from the Dismal Creek confluence to the Virginia-Kentucky border would facilitate better understanding of normal fluctuations of population size and distribution, as well as assessments of population status. This reach encompasses the core of the variegate darter population in Virginia, and its persistence will determine long-term viability of this species. Given that little is known about long-term population trends, we suggest that annual site-occupancy and population size estimates be made at ten randomly selected riffles for at least ten years to understand normal levels of variability. Thereafter, these population parameters could be monitored bi-annually as a way to detect shrinking distribution or abundance, especially after any fish kill or other pollution event in the Levisa Fork. We further suggest that the sites upstream and downstream of the saline diffusor pipe be monitored to detect changes in the extent of the impact zone. Overall, the variegate darter population in Virginia appears stable, although primarily confined to the lower 35 km of the Levisa Fork. Nevertheless, variegate darters in Virginia remain susceptible to extirpation due to catastrophic events, both physical (chemical spill) and biological (disease outbreak or invasive species introduction).

Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2005

Contaminants as viral cofactors: assessing indirect population effects

Current toxicological methods often miss contaminant effects, particularly when immune suppression is involved. The failure to recognize and evaluate indirect and sublethal effects severely limits the applicability of those methods at the population level. In this study, the Vitality model is used to evaluate the population level effects of a contaminant exerting only indirect, sublethal effects at the individual level. Juvenile rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) were injected with 2.5 or 10.0 mg/kg doses of the model CYP1A inducer, β-naphthoflavone (BNF) as a pre-stressor, then exposed to a challenge dose of 10 2 or 10 4 pfu/fish of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), an important viral pathogen of salmonids in North America. At the end of the 28-d challenge, the mortality data were processed according to the Vitality model which indicated that the correlation between the average rate of vitality loss and the pre-stressor dose was strong: R 2 = 0.9944. Average time to death and cumulative mortality were dependent on the BNF dose, while no significant difference between the two viral dosages was shown, implying that the history of the organism at the time of stressor exposure is an important factor in determining the virulence or toxicity of the stressor. The conceptual framework of this model permits a smoother transfer of results to a more complex stratum, namely the population level, which allows the immunosuppressive results generated by doses of a CYP1A inducer that more accurately represent the effects elicited by environmentally-relevant contaminant concentrations to be extrapolated to target populations. The indirect effects of other environmental contaminants with similar biotransformation pathways, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), could be assessed and quantified with this model and the results applied to a more complex biological hierarchy.

Aquatic Toxicology↗
USGS2007

Vision for a worldwide fluvial-sediment information network

The nations of the world suffer both from the deleterious effects of some natural and human-altered fluxes of fluvial sediment and a lack of consistent and reliable information on the temporal and spatial occurrence of fluvial sediments. Decades ago, this difficulty was unavoidable due to a lack of understanding of the magnitude and scope of environmental influences exerted by fluvial sediment coupled with a dearth of tools for monitoring and studying the data. Such is no longer the case. Fluvial sediment has a broad influence on the environment and humanity. Data needs that were once limited primarily to reservoir and channel maintenance now include issues associated with public water supply; contaminated sediment management; productivity of agricultural lands; stream restoration and watershed health; in-stream biotic stability; post-wildfire channel morphology; dam decommissioning, rehabilitation, or removal; and legal requirements for sediment management (Gray and Glysson, 2005). The adverse effects of poorly managed or unmanaged sediment movement related to these and other issues are well-known qualitatively, and in some cases quantitatively. For example, physical, chemical, and biological damages attributable to fluvial sediment in North America alone are now estimated to range between $20 billion and $50 billion annually (Pimental and others, 1995; Osterkamp and others, 1998; 2004). Capabilities for monitoring, analyzing, storing, and sharing fluvial-sediment data have been developed and, in many cases, are sufficiently mature for consideration for global utilization. Hence, there is not only a strong and expanding need for a global effort to gauge and understand fluvial-sediment characteristics and processes better, but the knowledge and tools to achieve these ends are largely available and ready for their applicability to be evaluated. Given the increasing importance of erosion and sediment processes for water-resources management, an International Sedimentation Initiative (ISI, 2007a), under the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s International Hydrologic Programme (IHP, 2007) was adopted in 2004. The ISI, the focus of which is on sustainable water-resources management on the global scale, features six major activities and projects, which are listed as part of the section entitled, “Relation of the WoFSIN concept to the thrusts of the International Sedimentation Initiative,” that precedes the “Conclusions” section of this paper. Based on the need for more, and more consistent and reliable fluvial-sediment information and on the existence of the ISI and other international and national sediment programs, we envision the need for a Worldwide Fluvial Sediment-Information Network (WoFSIN) with a focus on data acquisition, storage, and dissemination globally. Envisioned components of a WoFSIN, administered largely via the Internet and relying mostly on the benefits derived from existing resources and programs, follow that summary. The goal of the WoFSIN is to maximize the availability and usefulness of the world’s historical and current fluvial-sediment and ancillary data through collaboration with existing programs so as to require few additional resources in the long-term. Thus, the WoFSIN concept was developed recognizing that informed resource management is predicated on the availability of adequate and reliable information. The WoFSIN is described in the ensuing sections in stand-alone fashion, followed by a section that describes the complementary aspects of the WoFSIN and the International Sediment Initiative. Thus, our first objective is to describe the fundamental components of a WoFSIN. Our second objective is to identify overlap or gaps between the WoFSIN and ISI concepts that might be useful in refining the ISI’s ability to meet its global mission to develop decision support for sediment management at the global scale more fully, cost-effectively, and (or) with enhanced quality.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

Space use of wintering waterbirds in India: Influence of trophic ecology on home-range size

Relationship between species' home range and their other biological traits remains poorly understood, especially in migratory birds due to the difficulty associated with tracking them. Advances in satellite telemetry and remote sensing techniques have proved instrumental in overcoming such challenges. We studied the space use of migratory ducks through satellite telemetry with an objective of understanding the influence of body mass and feeding habits on their home-range sizes. We marked 26 individuals, representing five species of migratory ducks, with satellite transmitters during two consecutive winters in three Indian states. We used kernel methods to estimate home ranges and core use areas of these waterfowl, and assessed the influence of body mass and feeding habits on home-range size. Feeding habits influenced the home-range size of the migratory ducks. Carnivorous ducks had the largest home ranges, herbivorous ducks the smallest, while omnivorous species had intermediate home-ranges. Body mass did not explain variation in home-range size. To our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind on migratory ducks, and it has important implications for their conservation and management.

Current Zoology↗
USGS2016

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2014

Toxicity of copper sulfate and rotenone to Chinese mystery snail ( Bellamya chinensis )

The Chinese mystery snail ( Bellamya chinensis ) is a freshwater snail native to Southeast Asia, Japan, and Russia and is currently classified as an invasive species in at least 27 states in the USA. The species tolerates a wide range of environmental conditions, making management of established populations difficult. We tested the efficacy of two traditional chemical treatments, rotenone and copper sulfate, on the elimination of adult Chinese mystery snails in laboratory experiments. All snails (N=50) survived 72-hour exposure to rotenone-treated lake water, and 96% (N=25) survived 72-hour exposure to pre-determined rotenone concentrations of 0.25, 2.5, and 25.0 mg/L. All snails (N=10) survived exposure to 1.25 mg/L copper sulfate solution, 90% (N=10) survived exposure to 2.50 mg/L copper sulfate solution, and 80% (N=5) survived exposure to 5.0 mg/L copper sulfate solution. Neither rotenone nor copper sulfate effectively killed adult Chinese mystery snails in laboratory experiments, most likely due to their relatively large size, thick shell, and operculum. Therefore, it appears that populations will be very difficult to control once established, and management should focus on preventing additional spread or introductions of this species.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2014

New insight into the spawning behavior of lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush , from a recovering population in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Spawning behavior of lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush , is poorly understood, relative to stream-dwelling salmonines. Underwater video records of spawning in a recovering population from the Drummond Island Refuge (Lake Huron) represent the first reported direct observations of lake trout spawning in the Laurentian Great Lakes. These observations provide new insight into lake trout spawning behavior and expand the current conceptual model. Lake trout spawning consisted of at least four distinct behaviors: hovering, traveling, sinking, and gamete release. Hovering is a new courtship behavior that has not been previously described. The apparent concentration of hovering near the margin of the spawning grounds suggests that courtship and mate selection might be isolated from the spawning act (i.e., traveling, sinking, and gamete release). Moreover, we interpret jockeying for position displayed by males during traveling as a unique form of male-male competition that likely evolved in concert with the switch from redd-building to itinerant spawning in lake trout. Unlike previous models, which suggested that intra-sexual competition and mate selection do not occur in lake trout, our model includes both and is therefore consistent with evolutionary theory, given that the sex ratio on spawning grounds is skewed heavily towards males. The model presented in this paper is intended as a working hypothesis, and further revision may become necessary as we gain a more complete understanding of lake trout spawning behavior.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2012

Persistence and extirpation in invaded landscapes: patch characteristics and connectivity determine effects of non-native predatory fish on native salamanders

Studies have demonstrated negative effects of non-native, predatory fishes on native amphibians, yet it is still unclear why some amphibian populations persist, while others are extirpated, following fish invasion. We examined this question by developing habitat-based occupancy models for the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and nonnative fish using survey data from 1,749 water bodies across 470 catchments in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We first modeled the habitat associations of salamanders at 468 fishless water bodies in 154 catchments where non-native fish were historically, and are currently, absent from the entire catchment. Wethen applied this habitat model to the complete data set to predict the probability of salamander occupancy in each water body, removing any effect of fish presence. Finally, we compared field-observed occurrences of salamanders and fish to modeled probability of salamander occupancy. Suitability models indicated that fish and salamanders had similar habitat preferences, possibly resulting in extirpations of salamander populations from entire catchments where suitable habitats were limiting. Salamanders coexisted with non-native fish in some catchments by using marginal quality, isolated (no inlet or outlet) habitats that remained fishless. They rarely coexisted with fish within individual water bodies and only where habitat quality was highest. Connectivity of water bodies via streams resulted in increased probability of fish invasion and consequently reduced probability of salamander occupancy.These results could be used to identify and prioritize catchments and water bodies where control measures would be most effective at restoring amphibian populations. Our approach could be useful as a framework for improved investigations into questions of persistence and extirpation of native species when non-native species have already become established.

Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2015

Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km 2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km 2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km 2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km 2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km 2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km 2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat models to evaluate the effects of potential climate-induced habitat change. Under the 2050 IPCC A1B scenario, 11.6% of currently identified nesting habitat was lost, and 0.002% of new potential habitat was gained, with 4% of summer habitat lost and 0.039% gained. Our results demonstrate the successful ability of remote sensing based sagebrush components, when coupled with precipitation, to forecast future component response using IPCC precipitation scenarios. Our approach also enables future quantification of greater sage-grouse habitat under different precipitation scenarios, and provides additional capability to identify regional precipitation influence on sagebrush component response.

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Barrier displacement on a neutral landscape: Towards a theory of continental biogeography

Macroevolutionary theory posits three processes leading to lineage diversification and the formation of regional biotas: dispersal (species geographic range expansion), speciation (species lineage splitting), and extinction (species lineage termination). The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts species richness values using just two of these processes; dispersal and extinction. Yet most species on Earth live on continents or continental shelves, and the dynamics of evolutionary diversification at regional and continental scales are qualitatively different from those that govern the formation of species richness on biogeographic islands. Certain geomorphological processes operating perennially on continental platforms displace barriers to gene flow and organismal dispersal, and affect all three terms of macroevolutionary diversification. For example, uplift of a dissected landscape and river capture both merge and separate portions of adjacent areas, allowing dispersal and larger geographic ranges, vicariant speciation and smaller geographic ranges, and extinction when range sizes are subdivided below a minimum persistence threshold. The TIB also does not predict many biogeographic and phylogenetic patterns widely observed in continentally distributed taxa, including: 1, power function-like species-area relationships; 2, log-normal distribution of species geographic range sizes, in which most species have restricted ranges (are endemic) and few species have broad ranges (are cosmopolitan); 3, mid-domain effects with more species towards the geographic center, and more early-branching, species-poor clades towards the geographic periphery; 4, exponential rates of net diversification with log-linear accumulation of lineages through geological time; and 5, power function-like relationships between species-richness and clade diversity, in which most clades are species-poor and few clades are species-rich. Current theory does not provide a robust mechanistic framework to connect these seemingly disparate patterns. Here we present SEAMLESS (Spatially-Explicit Area Model of Landscape Evolution by SimulationS) that generates clade diversification by moving geographic barriers on a continuous, neutral landscape. SEAMLESS is a neutral Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) that treats species and barriers as functionally equivalent with respect to model parameters. SEAMLESS differs from other model-based biogeographic methods (e.g. Lagrange, GeoSSE, BayArea, BioGeoBEARS) by modeling properties of dispersal barriers rather than areas, and by modeling the evolution of species lineages on a continuous landscape, rather than the evolution of geographic ranges along branches of a phylogeny. SEAMLESS shows how dispersal is required to maintain species richness and avoid clade-wide extinction, demonstrates that ancestral range size does not predict species richness, and provides a unified explanation for the suite of commonly observed biogeographic and phylogenetic patterns listed above. SEAMLESS explains how a simple barrier-displacement mechanism affects lineage diversification under neutral conditions, and is advanced here towards the formulation of a general theory of continental biogeography.

Systematic Biology↗
USGS2015

Porphyry copper assessment of northeast Asia: Far East Russia and northeasternmost China: Chapter W in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey assesses resources (mineral, energy, water, environmental, and biologic) at regional, national, and global scales to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources in undiscovered deposits. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in northeast Asia—composed mainly of Far East Russia and a small part of northeasternmost China—was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. Porphyry copper deposits are the main source of copper globally. Russia is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as 6th, 7th, or 8th in world production since 2000, and ranked 7th in 2014. Most of this production has been from magmatic copper-nickel-platinum-group element, volcanogenic massive sulfide, and sediment-hosted copper deposit types. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The assessment was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with geologists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and industry consultants. The database of known deposits, significant prospects, and prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in two known porphyry copper deposits, as well as key characteristics derived from available exploration reports for 70 significant porphyry copper prospects and 86 other prospects. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through February 2013.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2004

The effects of mixotrophy on the stability and dynamics of a simple planktonic food web

Recognition of the microbial loop as an important part of aquatic ecosystems disrupted the notion of simple linear food chains. However, current research suggests that even the microbial loop paradigm is a gross simplification of microbial interactions due to the presence of mixotrophs—organisms that both photosynthesize and graze. We present a simple food web model with four trophic species, three of them arranged in a food chain (nutrients–autotrophs–herbivores) and the fourth as a mixotroph with links to both the nutrients and the autotrophs. This model is used to study the general implications of inclusion of the mixotrophic link in microbial food webs and the specific predictions for a parameterization that describes open ocean mixed layer plankton dynamics. The analysis indicates that the system parameters reside in a region of the parameter space where the dynamics converge to a stable equilibrium rather than displaying periodic or chaotic solutions. However, convergence requires weeks to months, suggesting that the system would never reach equilibrium in the ocean due to alteration of the physical forcing regime. Most importantly, the mixotrophic grazing link seems to stabilize the system in this region of the parameter space, particularly when nutrient recycling feedback loops are included.

Theoretical Population Biology↗
USGS2022

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2015

Re-colonization by common eiders Somateria mollissima in the Aleutian Archipelago following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus

Islands provide refuges for populations of many species where they find safety from predators, but the introduction of predators frequently results in elimination or dramatic reductions in island-dwelling organisms. When predators are removed, re-colonization for some species occurs naturally, and inter-island phylogeographic relationships and current movement patterns can illuminate processes of colonization. We studied a case of re-colonization of common eiders Somateria mollissima following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Aleutian Archipelago, Alaska. We expected common eiders to resume nesting on islands cleared of foxes and to re-colonize from nearby islets, islands, and island groups. We thus expected common eiders to show limited genetic structure indicative of extensive mixing among island populations. Satellite telemetry was used to record current movement patterns of female common eiders from six islands across three island groups. We collected genetic data from these and other nesting common eiders at 14 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA control region to examine population genetic structure, historical fluctuations in population demography, and gene flow. Our results suggest recent interchange among islands. Analysis of microsatellite data supports satellite telemetry data of increased dispersal of common eiders to nearby areas and little between island groups. Although evidence from mtDNA is suggestive of female dispersal among island groups, gene flow is insufficient to account for recolonization and rapid population growth. Instead, near-by remnant populations of common eiders contributed substantially to population expansion, without which re-colonization would have likely occurred at a much lower rate. Genetic and morphometric data of common eiders within one island group two and three decades after re-colonization suggests reduced movement of eiders among islands and little movement between island groups after populations were re-established. We predict that re-colonization of an island group where all common eiders are extirpated could take decades.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

The risk of rodent introductions from shipwrecks to seabirds on Aleutian and Bering Sea islands

Accidental introductions of rodents present one of the greatest threats to indigenous island biota, especially seabirds. On uninhabited remote islands, such introductions are likely to come from shipwrecks. Here we use a comprehensive database of shipwrecks in Western Alaska to model the frequency of shipwrecks per Aleutian and Bering Sea island, taken as a proxy for the threat of rodent introductions, using physical variables, and the intensity of nearby fishing traffic and activity as predictors. Using data spanning from 1950 to 2013, we found that shipwrecks were particularly common in the 1980s to early 2000s, with a major peak in wrecks during the late 1980s. Amount of fishing activity within 5 km of an island was the strongest predictor of shipwrecks, followed by the strength of tidal currents and density of large-vessel traffic. Islands with the highest frequency of shipwrecks are all in the eastern Aleutians, including Unimak, Unalaska, and Akun Islands. By contrast, the largest seabird colonies are in the western Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, including Buldir, Kiska, and Saint George islands. Multiplying the frequency of a shipwreck by the number of seabirds breeding per island provides a measure of risk. The risk of rodent introductions from shipwrecks to seabirds was then greatest for Saint George (Bering Sea), Buldir (Western Aleutians) and Saint Matthew islands (Bering Sea). Keeping these high-risk islands rodent free would maintain their high a conservation value. Most islands with a high predicted frequency of shipwrecks already have established rodent populations and therefore few remaining seabirds. Of those islands with established rodent populations, Attu and Kiska Islands would make suitable targets for eradication, given their relatively low expected frequency of shipwrecks for their size. Further improvements in rat prevention on vessels and shipping safety would benefit the economy, human health and safety, and to the long-term conservation of island ecosystems.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet Endangered status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2011

Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models

Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus ), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens ) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.

Chihuahuan Desert↗