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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Current range of the eastern population of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris). Part II: Winter range

The importance of wintering areas for Neotropical migrants is well established. The wintering range of the eastern population of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) is described in detail and presented in maps. The paper also discusses extralimital records from islands in the Caribbean Basin as well as scattered wintering individuals outside the winter range. The possibility of eastern birds wintering on the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent Central America is considered. An extensive treatment of the protected areas of Peninsular Florida, the northern Bahamas, and Cuba describes the importance of upland habitats within these protected areas for wintering buntings. This information should be useful to land management agencies, conservation organizations, and private landholders for the welfare of the bunting and biodiversity in general and may also be of interest to ornithologists, other biological disciplines, naturalists, and birders.

North American Birds↗

USGS2006

Mapping South San Francisco Bay's seabed diversity for use in wetland restoration planning

In an effort to understand the role of sediment of South San Francisco Bay (South Bay) salt ponds, an acoustic seabed classification was performed with the condition of over two hundred sediment samples. The success of the large-scale tidal wetland restoration of up to 15,000 acres of South Bay partly depends on the ability of the converted ponds to acquire and retain enough sediment to support marsh growth. Determining the distribution of South Bay's seabed sediment types and understanding their potential erosive properties helps answer critical planning questions about sediment budgets and sediment transportation. Acoustic seabed classification is the organization of the seafloor into discrete units based on the characteristics of the acoustic response generated by an echosounder. Acoustic diversity is considered a proxy for geoacoustical parameters including acoustic impedance contrast, scatter and volume reverberation which all vary with sediment type. In addition, biological and anthropogenic features can influence the acoustic response. Data for an acoustic seabed classification were collected as a part of a California Coastal Conservancy funded bathymetric survey of South Bay in early 2005. A QTC VIEW seabed classification system recorded echoes from a sungle bean 50 kHz echosounder. Approximately 450,000 seabed classification records were generated from an are of of about 30 sq. miles. Ten district acoustic classes were identified through an unsupervised classification system using principle component and cluster analyses. One hundred and sixty-one grab samples and forty-five benthic community composition data samples collected in the study area shortly before and after the seabed classification survey, further refined the ten classes into groups based on grain size. A preliminary map of surficial grain size of South Bay was developed from the combination of the seabed classification and the grab and benthic samples. The initial seabed classification map, the grain size map, and locations of sediment samples will be displayed along with the methods of acousitc seabed classification.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

Individual characteristics and abiotic factors influence out-migration dynamics of juvenile bull trout

Fragmentation of rivers through anthropogenic modifications poses an imminent threat to the persistence of migratory fish, necessitating direct actions such as trap-and-haul programs to restore and conserve the migratory life-history component in populations of partially migratory species such as bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. We used a PIT-tag system to assess how biological and abiotic factors influence the out-migration dynamics of juvenile bull trout in Graves Creek, Montana, USA. The largest fish within a cohort were more likely to out-migrate at age 1 when compared to smaller fish within the cohort, and this was particularly evident in a high-density year-class (2018), where large bull trout out-migrated an average of 115 days earlier than bull trout in the medium size category, and 181 days earlier than bull trout in the small size category. Relative changes in abiotic factors, including discharge, water temperature, and photoperiod, appeared to act as cues to out-migration, with the direction of change varying by season. These results highlight the complex interplay between individual characteristics, population dynamics, and environmental conditions, which influence out-migration dynamics and can be used to inform management actions to conserve the migratory component in bull trout populations.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2013

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Eco↗

USGS2015

A formalized approach to making effective natural resource management decisions for Alaska National Parks

A fundamental goal of the National Park Service (NPS) is the long-term protection and management of resources in the National Park System. Reaching this goal requires multiple approaches, including the conservation of essential habitats and the identification and elimination of potential threats to biota and habitats. To accomplish these goals, the NPS has implemented the Alaska Region Vital Signs Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program to monitor key biological, chemical, and physical components of ecosystems at more than 270 national parks. The Alaska Region has four networks—Arctic, Central, Southeast, and Southwest. By monitoring vital signs over large spatial and temporal scales, park managers are provided with information on the status and trajectory of park resources as well as a greater understanding and insight into the ecosystem dynamics. While detecting and quantifying change is important to conservation efforts, to be useful for formulating remedial actions, monitoring data must explicitly relate to management objectives and be collected in such a manner as to resolve key uncertainties about the dynamics of the system (Nichols and Williams 2006). Formal decision making frameworks (versus more traditional processes described below) allow for the explicit integration of monitoring data into decision making processes to improve the understanding of system dynamics, thereby improving future decisions (Williams 2011).

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Long-term predictive modeling of stream condition suggests wide-spread changes within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Stream ecosystems worldwide face ongoing degradation, underscoring the urgent need for conservation and restoration. Regional analyses of stream condition have been limited by sparse spatial and temporal data, particularly at long time scales. To address this gap, we used observed data to predict annual biological condition for 360,893 small, nontidal stream reaches in the Chesapeake Bay watershed from 1985 to 2023 (39 years). Predictions were generated using random forest models trained on extensive benthic macroinvertebrate data sets and predictors including natural landscape features, land cover, and climate variables. Four biological metrics were assessed: percent Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera excluding Hydropsychidae (EPT-H), percent Ephemeroptera, percent clinger functional group, and the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI). Results revealed degraded biological conditions near Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, Maryland, with declining trends across all metrics in these urbanized areas. Spatial heterogeneity was evident: IBI and clinger percentages increased in many southern streams but declined in northern streams, whereas EPT-H and Ephemeroptera decreased watershed wide except in the Southeastern Plains bioregion. By 2021, watershed wide IBI improvements were predicted for 0.9–1.1% of stream length, falling short of management goals. This study demonstrates the utility of long-term data and machine learning for predicting stream condition, identifying key stressors, and guiding restoration and conservation site selection.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2002

Prioritizing conservation potential of arid-land montane natural springs and associated riparian areas

Using inventory data and input from natural resource professionals, we developed a classification system that categorizes conservation potential for montane natural springs. This system contains 18 classes based on the presence of a riparian patch, wetland species, surface water, and evidence of human activity. We measured physical and biological components of 276 montane springs in the Oscura Mountains above 1450 m and the San Andres Mountains above 1300 m in southern New Mexico. Two of the 18 classes were not represented during the inventory, indicating the system applies to conditions beyond the montane springs in our study area. The class type observed most often (73 springs) had a riparian patch, perennial surface water, and human evidence. We assessed our system in relation to 13 other wetland and riparian classification systems regarding approach, area of applicability, intended users, validation, ease of use, and examination of system response. Our classification can be used to rapidly assess priority of conservation potential for isolated riparian sites, especially springs, in arid landscapes. We recommend (1) including this classification in conservation planning, (2) removing deleterious structures from high-priority sites, and (3) assessing efficiency and use of this classification scheme elsewhere. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2021

The snag’s the limit: Habitat selection modeling for the western purple martin in a managed forest landscape

The western purple martin ( Progne subis arboricola ), an avian insectivore, is a species of conservation concern throughout the Pacific Northwest. Compared to the well-studied eastern subspecies ( Progne subis subis ), little is known of the life history and biology of the western subspecies. Availability of breeding habitat is believed to be a major limiting factor for western purple martins in forested habitat, but fundamental information on their current distribution and selection of nesting habitat is deficient. To fill this gap, we compared habitat characteristics at three spatial scales (snag-level, stand-level [48.6 ha], landscape-level [314 ha]) surrounding nest snags occupied by purple martins in western Oregon to unoccupied sites. We found habitat for nesting purple martins was defined by the presence of moderately decayed snags with nest cavities, located well away from closed-canopy forest in sufficiently large (>15 ha) open areas. Our modeling efforts suggested suitable habitat was rare within the study region because: 1) snags were scarce on private industrial forest lands and 2) large disturbed patches were uncommon on federal lands. We conclude that a disturbance regime characterized by infrequent but major stand-replacing events, such as fire or timber harvest, is likely the key to maintaining breeding habitat for purple martins in upland forests in western Oregon.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Pedological and geological relationships with soil lichen and moss distribution in the eastern Mojave Desert, CA, USA

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are ubiquitous in drylands globally. Lichens and mosses are essential biocrust components and provide a variety of ecosystem services, making their conservation and management of interest. Accordingly, understanding what factors are correlated with their distribution is important to land managers. We hypothesized that cover would be related to geologic and pedologic factors. We sampled 32 sites throughout the eastern Mojave Desert, stratifying by parent material and the age of the geomorphic surfaces. The cover of lichens and mosses on ‘available ground’ (L + M av ; available ground excludes ground covered by rocks or plant stems) was higher on limestone and quartzite-derived soils than granite-derived soils. Cover was also higher on moderately younger-aged geomorphic surfaces (Qya2, Qya3, Qya4) and cutbanks than on very young (Qya1), older-aged surfaces (Qia1, Qia2), or soils associated with coppice mounds or animal burrowing under Larrea tridentata. When all sites and parent materials were combined, soil texture was the most important factor predicting the occurrence of L + M av , with cover positively associated with higher silt, very fine sand, and fine sand fractions and negatively associated with the very coarse sand fraction. When parent materials were examined separately, nutrients such as available potassium, iron, and calcium became the most important predictors of L + M av cover.

California↗

USGS2013

Relating hyporheic fluxes, residence times, and redox-sensitive biogeochemical processes upstream of beaver dams

Abstract. Small dams enhance the development of patchy microenvironments along stream corridors by trapping sediment and creating complex streambed morphologies. This patchiness drives intricate hyporheic flux patterns that govern the exchange of O 2 and redox-sensitive solutes between the water column and the stream bed. We used multiple tracer techniques, naturally occurring and injected, to evaluate hyporheic flow dynamics and associated biogeochemical cycling and microbial reactivity around 2 beaver dams in Wyoming (USA). High-resolution fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing was used to collect temperature data over 9 vertical streambed profiles and to generate comprehensive vertical flux maps using 1-dimensional (1-D) heat-transport modeling. Coincident with these locations, vertical profiles of hyporheic water were collected every week and analyzed for dissolved O 2 , pH, dissolved organic C, and several conservative and redox-sensitive solutes. In addition, hyporheic and net stream aerobic microbial reactivity were analyzed with a constant-rate injection of the biologically sensitive resazurin (Raz) smart tracer. The combined results revealed a heterogeneous system with rates of downwelling hyporheic flow organized by morphologic unit and tightly coupled to the redox conditions of the subsurface. Principal component analysis was used to summarize the variability of all redox-sensitive species, and results indicated that hyporheic water varied from oxic-stream-like to anoxic-reduced in direct response to the hydrodynamic conditions and associated residence times. The anaerobic transition threshold predicted by the mean O 2 Damko ¨hler number seemed to overestimate the actual transition as indicated by multiple secondary electron acceptors, illustrating the gradient nature of anaerobic transition. Temporal flux variability in low-flux morphologies generated a much greater range in hyporheic redox conditions compared to high-flux zones, and chemical responses to changing flux rates were consistent with those predicted from the empirical relationship between redox condition and residence time. The Raz tracer revealed that hyporheic flow paths have strong net aerobic respiration, particularly at higher residence time, but this reactive exchange did not affect the net stream signal at the reach scale.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2025

A comprehensive freshwater mussel database for the Duck River Drainage, Tennessee

We have developed a comprehensive database for freshwater mussels for the Duck River drainage in Tennessee, including its largest tributary, the Buffalo River. This database is intended to serve as an expandable template that could be applied statewide. The Duck River is one of the most biologically diverse rivers in the world, with historically over 70 mussel species, and it has been selected as a priority watershed by multiple management and conservation entities. The database for this system compiles over 7,000 mussel records, spanning 200 years, from multiple Federal, State, academic, and private entities, representing 77 native species. The database is spatially explicit and includes temporal and methodological data for each record, and notes of negative survey data were made when possible. The database can facilitate the creation of distribution maps for each species and temporal maps of species richness to show watershed-wide trends. This project addresses the present lack of a centralized mussel database in Tennessee for a critical system. It will be available to facilitate species status assessments, inform conservation planning, and serve as a model for similar databases for other Tennessee watersheds.

Tennessee↗

USGS2017

Assessing the risk of non-native marine species in the Bering Sea

Invasive species are one of the leading global conservation concerns, which can have strong, negative impacts on ecosystems, vulnerable species, and valuable natural resources. Arctic regions have experienced a relatively low number of biological introductions to date. Their geographical remoteness, cold waters, and presence of sea ice present challenging conditions for both non-native organisms and the vessels that transport them, presumably leading to low rates of introduction and establishment. However, observed increases in water temperatures reductions in sea ice, and projected increases in shipping traffic are expected to render arctic marine regions more susceptible to the arrival and colonization of marine invasives. Risk assessments for these Arctic regions are important to inform management and monitoring priorities by determining which species pose the greatest risk. To this end, we developed a ranking system for non-native marine species and used this system to assess the risk of non-native species to the Bering Sea. Using species’ published physiological tolerances, we mapped habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios to identify geographic areas of current and future concern. In addition, we described shipping traffic from commercial and fishing vessels to identify ports of entry for non-native species. Collectively, these analyses identify which marine species have the greatest risk for invasion, where in the Bering Sea invasion risk and species establishment is greatest, and which ports are most likely to serve as an entry point for marine invasives into Alaska’s Bering Sea. The ranking system we developed for non-native marine species consists of 33 questions grouped into five categories. The first four categories evaluate a species’ ability to arrive and establish in the Bering Sea, its reliance on humans for introductions, its biology, and its impacts on ecological and human systems. The fifth category is not included in the total ranking score, but provides information on management considerations. The ranking system has methods to account for data deficiencies and calculates these deficiencies to allow readers to weigh the lack of knowledge with the ranking score. We prioritized non-native species for ranking based on their geographic proximity to the Bering Sea. We evaluated 46 species and ranking scores ranged from 29.1 to 74.3 (out of a possible 100), with highest scores indicating greatest risk. Taxonomy at the level of phylum did not explain variation in ranking values, likely due to the substantial biological variation relative to our ranking criteria among members of the same phylum. To investigate where non-native species may survive and persist in the Bering Sea, we compared species’ temperature and salinity thresholds to environmental conditions of the Bering Sea. Environmental conditions were obtained from three Regional Ocean Modeling Systems (ROMS) and investigated under two time periods: current (2003-2012) and mid-century (2030-2039). We identified potential habitat for survival for 42 species, and potential habitat for reproduction for 29 species. Under current conditions, all species had temperature and salinity thresholds that would allow survival in the Bering Sea for at least part of the year, and most species (79% to 83%) had thresholds that would allow for survival year-round. For species with temperature and salinity thresholds unsuitable for survival in the Bering Sea, winter temperatures appear to be the limiting factor. Most species had six to nine weeks of suitable conditions for reproduction. Future increases in water temperatures are expected to open more habitat for marine invasives. Two of the three ROMs project an increase in the number of non-native species that would be able to survive year-round by mid-century. Moreover, models project between 37% and 60% of the Bering Sea shelf habitat to become more suitable under mid-century climate condition.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Organization of marine phenology data in support of planning and conservation in ocean and coastal ecosystems

Among the many effects of climate change is its influence on the phenology of biota. In marine and coastal ecosystems, phenological shifts have been documented for multiple life forms; however, biological data related to marine species' phenology remain difficult to access and is under-used. We conducted an assessment of potential sources of biological data for marine species and their availability for use in phenological analyses and assessments. Our evaluations showed that data potentially related to understanding marine species' phenology are available through online resources of governmental, academic, and non-governmental organizations, but appropriate datasets are often difficult to discover and access, presenting opportunities for scientific infrastructure improvement. The developing Federal Marine Data Architecture when fully implemented will improve data flow and standardization for marine data within major federal repositories and provide an archival repository for collaborating academic and public data contributors. Another opportunity, largely untapped, is the engagement of citizen scientists in standardized collection of marine phenology data and contribution of these data to established data flows. Use of metadata with marine phenology related keywords could improve discovery and access to appropriate datasets. When data originators choose to self-publish, publication of research datasets with a digital object identifier, linked to metadata, will also improve subsequent discovery and access. Phenological changes in the marine environment will affect human economics, food systems, and recreation. No one source of data will be sufficient to understand these changes. The collective attention of marine data collectors is needed—whether with an agency, an educational institution, or a citizen scientist group—toward adopting the data management processes and standards needed to ensure availability of sufficient and useable marine data to understand marine phenology.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2014

Estimating habitat carrying capacity for migrating and wintering waterfowl: Considerations, pitfalls and improvements

Population-based habitat conservation planning for migrating and wintering waterfowl in North America is carried out by habitat Joint Venture (JV) initiatives and is based on the premise that food can limit demography (i.e. food limitation hypothesis). Consequently, planners use bioenergetic models to estimate food (energy) availability and population-level energy demands at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, and translate these values into regional habitat objectives. While simple in principle, there are both empirical and theoretical challenges associated with calculating energy supply and demand including: 1) estimating food availability, 2) estimating the energy content of specific foods, 3) extrapolating site-specific estimates of food availability to landscapes for focal species, 4) applicability of estimates from a single species to other species, 5) estimating resting metabolic rate, 6) estimating cost of daily behaviours, and 7) estimating costs of thermoregulation or tissue synthesis. Most models being used are daily ration models (DRMs) whose set of simplifying assumptions are well established and whose use is widely accepted and feasible given the empirical data available to populate such models. However, DRMs do not link habitat objectives to metrics of ultimate ecological importance such as individual body condition or survival, and largely only consider food-producing habitats. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a possible alternative for creating more biologically realistic models under some conditions; however, ABMs require different types of empirical inputs, many of which have yet to be estimated for key North American waterfowl. Decisions about how JVs can best proceed with habitat conservation would benefit from the use of sensitivity analyses that could identify the empirical and theoretical uncertainties that have the greatest influence on efforts to estimate habitat carrying capacity. Development of ABMs at restricted, yet biologically relevant spatial scales, followed by comparisons of their outputs to those generated from more simplistic, deterministic models can provide a means of assessing degrees of dissimilarity in how alternative models describe desired landscape conditions for migrating and wintering waterfowl.

Wildfowl↗

USGS2012

Endangered river fish: factors hindering conservation and restoration

Globally, riverine fish face many anthropogenic threats including riparian and flood plain habitat degradation, altered hydrology, migration barriers, fisheries exploitation, environmental (climate) change, and introduction of invasive species. Collectively, these threats have made riverine fishes some of the most threatened taxa on the planet. Although much effort has been devoted to identifying the threats faced by river fish, there has been less effort devoted to identifying the factors that may hinder our ability to conserve and restore river fish populations and their watersheds. Therefore, we focus our efforts on identifying and discussing 10 general factors (can also be viewed as research and implementation needs) that constrain or hinder effective conservation action for endangered river fish: (1) limited basic natural history information; (2) limited appreciation for the scale/extent of migrations and the level of connectivity needed to sustain populations; (3) limited understanding of fish/river-flow relationships; (4) limited understanding of the seasonal aspects of river fish biology, particularly during winter and/or wet seasons; (5) challenges in predicting the response of river fish and river ecosystems to both environmental change and various restoration or management actions; (6) limited understanding of the ecosystem services provided by river fish; (7) the inherent difficulty in studying river fish; (8) limited understanding of the human dimension of river fish conservation and management; (9) limitations of single species approaches that often fail to address the broader-scale problems; and (10) limited effectiveness of governance structures that address endangered river fish populations and rivers that cross multiple jurisdictions. We suggest that these issues may need to be addressed to help protect, restore, or conserve river fish globally, particularly those that are endangered.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2020

Comparison of fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations in hand‐ versus parent‐reared whooping cranes (Grus americana)

Endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) have been produced in captivity for reintroduction programs since the 1980s, using techniques such as artificial insemination, multiple clutching, and captive‐rearing to speed recovery efforts. Chicks are often hand‐reared (HR) by caretakers in crane costumes, socialized into groups and released together, unlike parent‐reared (PR) cranes that are raised individually by a male/female crane pair and released singly. HR cranes historically exhibit greater morbidity rates during development than PR cranes, involving musculoskeletal and respiratory system disease, among others. We hypothesized that HR crane chicks exhibit a higher baseline fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentrations during the development compared with PR chicks. Fecal samples were collected between 15 and 70 days of age from HR ( n = 15) and PR ( n = 8) chicks to test for differences in FGM concentrations using a radioimmunoassay technique following ethanol extraction for steroids. Linear mixed model analysis suggests increasing age of the chick was associated with an increase in FGM ( p < .001). Analysis also supported the interaction between rearing strategy and sex of the crane chick ( p < .01). Female PR chicks had greater FGM concentrations than all other groups (PR male, p < .01; HR female, p < .001; and HR male, p < .001). This result suggests that there may be an effect of rearing strategy on stress physiology of whooping crane chicks, especially among females. Further research is needed to investigate whether the FGM concentrations are reflective of true differences in stress physiology of young cranes and whether this may impact health and conservation success.zo

Zoo Biology↗

USGS2002

Ontogenetic behavior and migration of Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis

The Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis , is an anadromous protected species that presently only spawns in the Yangtze River. Using laboratory experiments, we examined the behavioral preference of young Chinese sturgeon to physical habitat (water depth, illumination intensity, substrate color, and cover) and monitored their downstream migration. Hatchling free embryos were photopositive, preferred open habitat, and immediately upon hatching, swam far above the bottom using swim-up and drift. Downstream migration peaked on days 0–1, decreased about 50% or more during days 2–7, and ceased by day 8. Days 0–1 migrants were active both day and night, but days 2–7 migrants were most active during the day. After ceasing migration, days 8–11 embryos were photonegative, preferred dark substrate and sought cover. Free embryos developed into larvae and began feeding on day 12, when another shift in behavior occurred–larvae returned to photopositive behavior and preferred white substrate. The selective factor favoring migration of free embryos upon hatching and swimming far above the bottom may be avoidance of benthic predatory fishes. Free embryos, which must rely on yolk energy for activity and growth, only used 19 cumulative temperature degree-days for peak migration compared to 234 degree-days for growth to first feeding larvae, a 1 : 12 ratio of cumulative temperature units. This ratio suggests that sturgeon species with large migratory embryos, like Chinese sturgeon, which require a high level of energy to swim during migration, may migrate only a short time to conserve most yolk energy for growth.

Jingzhou↗

USGS2021

Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years

Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark–recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one‐half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top‐ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature‐associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.

Global Change Biology↗