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USGS2026

Measurements of wave runup on an atoll island using LiDAR

Coral atoll islands are highly susceptible to flooding and overwash due to their low-lying nature and the impacts of climate change. This study presents the first long-term, high-resolution field dataset of wave runup on a coral atoll island, collected over 6 weeks using a shore-mounted LiDAR scanner. The LiDAR data captured swash dynamics on a steep coral rubble beach fronted by a conglomerate platform. Results demonstrate the limitations of depth-based swash extraction methods, particularly for thin swash events, where depth thresholds lead to significant underprediction. Further analyses show that low-frequency oscillations (infragravity and very-low-frequency bands) and high-frequency components (transitional bores) dominate the spectra on the reef platform and are reflected in the swash signal. The displayed swash spectra highlight the critical role of low-frequency oscillations in extreme runup events, emphasizing their contribution to island flooding and overwash.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Influence of land use and hydrologic variability on seasonal dissolved organic carbon and nitrate export: Insights from a multi-year regional analysis for the northeastern USA

Land use/land cover (LULC) change has significant impacts on nutrient loading to aquatic systems and has been linked to deteriorating water quality globally. While many relationships between LULC and nutrient loading have been identified, characterization of the interaction between LULC, climate (specifically variable hydrologic forcing) and solute export across seasonal and interannual time scales is needed to understand the processes that determine nutrient loading and responses to change. Recent advances in high-frequency water quality sensors provide opportunities to assess these interannual relationships with sufficiently high temporal resolution to capture the unpredictable, short-term storm events that likely drive important export mechanisms for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO 3 − –N). We deployed a network of in situ sensors in forested, agricultural, and urban watersheds across the northeastern United States. Using 2 years of high-frequency sensor data, we provide a regional assessment of how LULC and hydrologic variability affected the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate export, and the status of watershed fluxes as either supply or transport controlled. Analysis of annual export dynamics revealed systematic differences in the timing and magnitude of DOC and NO 3 − –N delivery among different LULC classes, with distinct regional similarities in the timing of DOC and NO 3 − –N fluxes from forested and urban watersheds. Conversely, export dynamics at agricultural sites appeared to be highly site-specific, likely driven by local agricultural practices and regulations. Furthermore, the magnitude of solute fluxes across watersheds responded strongly to interannual variability in rainfall, suggesting a high degree of hydrologic control over nutrient loading across the region. Thus, there is strong potential for climate-driven changes in regional hydrologic cycles to drive variation in the magnitude of downstream nutrient fluxes, particularly in watersheds where solute supply and/or transport has been modified.

Delaware, Rhode Island, Vermont↗

USGS2018

Multi-year data from satellite- and ground-based sensors show details and scale matter in assessing climate’s effects on wetland surface water, amphibians, and landscape conditions

Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km 2 landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ≥ 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Consumer isoscapes reveal heterogeneous food webs in deep-sea submarine canyons and adjacent slopes

The deep sea is the largest biome on earth, but one of the least studied despite its critical role in global carbon cycling and climate buffering. Deep-sea organisms largely rely on particulate organic matter from the surface ocean for energy – these organisms in turn play critical roles in energy transport, transformation, storage, and sequestration of carbon. Within the deep sea, submarine canyons are amongst the most complex and dynamic environments in our oceans, where varied morphology, powerful currents, and variable nutrient conditions influence the distribution of species and transport of organic material throughout the water column and the seafloor. Significant habitat heterogeneity provides ideal substrates for cold-water corals, making submarine canyons of interest to conservation and management. However, how these and other topographic features in the deep ocean influence energy flow and trophic pathways is poorly known. Thus, submarine canyons serve as model systems to track variability in organic material flux and consequential utilization and assimilation by the benthos. In this study, we used an extensive stable isotope dataset to examine food-web structure in Baltimore and Norfolk submarine canyons and compared them to their adjacent slopes located along the U.S. Atlantic margin. Linear models were used to construct geospatially-explicit consumer isoscapes that predicted variation in carbon and nitrogen isotopes across the canyon-slope seascape, providing a predictive map from which to test hypotheses on the distribution and flow of energy resources, relevant to understanding whole community function. Communities were composed of isotopically diverse feeding groups with photosynthetically-derived organic carbon providing the basal food resource. Canyon communities were distinct from the slope, with canyon consumers significantly 13 C-depleted, indicating a greater supply and/or utilization of fresh organic matter compared to the slope. Isoscapes for benthic and suspension feeders were distinct, possibly due to the consumption of different quality organic matter sources (fresh = suspension feeders, old = benthic feeders), each with distinct isotope composition. To our knowledge, our modeled isoscapes represent the first spatially extensive isotopic maps of deep-sea consumers, providing insights into regional-scale variation in stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes for different consumer groups. They provide a baseline for tracking climate-change induced fluctuations in the quality and availability of surface primary production and the consequential impact to benthic communities, which play critical roles in carbon cycling in our world’s oceans.

Progress in Oceanography↗

USGS2020

Thermokarst amplifies fluvial inorganic carbon cycling and export across watershed scales on the Peel Plateau, Canada

As climate warming and precipitation increase at high latitudes, permafrost terrains across the circumpolar north are poised for intensified geomorphic activity and sediment mobilization that are expected to persist for millennia. In previously glaciated permafrost terrain, ice-rich deposits are associated with large stores of reactive mineral substrate. Over geological timescales, chemical weathering moderates atmospheric CO 2 levels, raising the prospect that mass wasting driven by terrain consolidation following thaw (thermokarst) may enhance weathering of permafrost sediments and thus climate feedbacks. The nature of these feedbacks depends upon the mineral composition of sediments (weathering sources) and the balance between atmospheric exchange of CO 2 vs. fluvial export of carbonate alkalinity ( Σ [ HCO 3 - "> HCO − 3 , CO 3 2 - "> CO 2 − 3 ]). Working in the fluvially incised, ice-rich glacial deposits of the Peel Plateau in northwestern Canada, we determine the effects of slope thermokarst in the form of retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity on mineral weathering sources, CO 2 dynamics, and carbonate alkalinity export and how these effects integrate across watershed scales ( ∼ 2 to 1000 km 2 ). We worked along three transects in nested watersheds with varying connectivity to RTS activity: a 550 m transect along a first-order thaw stream within a large RTS, a 14 km transect along a stream which directly received inputs from several RTSs, and a 70 km transect along a larger stream with headwaters that lay outside of RTS influence. In undisturbed headwaters, stream chemistry reflected CO 2 from soil respiration processes and atmospheric exchange. Within the RTS, rapid sulfuric acid carbonate weathering, prompted by the exposure of sulfide- and carbonate-bearing tills, appeared to increase fluvial CO 2 efflux to the atmosphere and propagate carbonate alkalinity across watershed scales. Despite covering less than 1 % of the landscape, RTS activity drove carbonate alkalinity to increase by 2 orders of magnitude along the largest transect. Amplified export of carbonate alkalinity together with isotopic signals of shifting DIC and CO 2 sources along the downstream transects highlights the dynamic nature of carbon cycling that may typify glaciated permafrost watersheds subject to intensification of hillslope thermokarst. The balance between CO 2 drawdown in regions where carbonic acid weathering predominates and CO 2 release in regions where sulfides are more prevalent will determine the biogeochemical legacy of thermokarst and enhanced weathering in northern permafrost terrains. Effects of RTSs on carbon cycling can be expected to persist for millennia, indicating a need for their integration into predictions of weathering–carbon–climate feedbacks among thermokarst terrains.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2017

Predicting the impacts of Mississippi River diversions and sea-level rise on spatial patterns of eastern oyster growth rate and production

There remains much debate regarding the perceived tradeoffs of using freshwater and sediment diversions for coastal restoration in terms of balancing the need for wetland restoration versus preserving eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) production. Further complicating the issue, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence are also expected to affect estuarine water quality. In this study, we developed a process-based numerical modeling system that couples hydrodynamic, water quality, and oyster population dynamics. We selected Breton Sound Estuary (BSE) (∼2740 km 2 ) in the eastern Mississippi River Deltaic Plain since it is home to several of the largest public oyster seed grounds and private leases for the Gulf coast. The coupled oyster population model was calibrated and validated against field observed oyster growth data. We predicted the responses of oyster population in BSE to small- (142 m 3 s −1 ) and large-scale (7080 m 3 s −1 ) river diversions at the Caernarvon Freshwater Diversion structure planned in the 2012 Coastal Master Plan (Louisiana) under low (0.38 m) and high (1.44 m) relative sea-level rise (RSLR = eustatic SLR + subsidence) compared to a baseline condition (Year 2009). Model results showed that the large-scale diversion had a stronger negative impact on oyster population dynamics via freshening of the entire estuary, resulting in reduced oyster growth rate and production than RSLR. Under the large-scale diversion, areas with optimal oyster growth rates (>15 mg ash-free dry weight (AFDW) oyster −1 wk −1 ) and production (>500 g AFDW m −2 yr −1 ) would shift seaward to the southeastern edge of the estuary, turning the estuary into a very low oyster production system. RSLR however played a greater role than the small-scale diversion on the magnitude and spatial pattern of oyster growth rate and production. RSLR would result in an overall estuary-wide decrease in oyster growth rate and production as a consequence of decreased salinities in the middle and lower estuary because rising sea level likely causes increased stage and overbank flow downstream along the lower Mississippi River.

Louisiana↗

USGS2016

Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty. A total of 18 performance metrics associated with 8 out of 12 resource goals (fundamental objectives) were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service in partnership with subject-matter teams composed of Federal, State, tribal, and private experts. A total of 19 long-term strategies associated with 7 alternatives were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cooperating Agencies. The 19 long-term strategies were evaluated against the 18 performance metrics using a series of coupled simulation models, taking into account the effects of several important sources of uncertainty. A total of 27 Federal, State, tribal, and nongovernmental agencies were invited by the Assistant Secretary of Interior to participate in a swing-weighting exercise to understand the range of perspectives about how to place relative value on the resource goals and performance metrics; 14 of the 27 chose to participate. The results of the swing-weighting exercise were combined with the evaluation of the alternatives to complete a multicriteria decision analysis. The effects of uncertainty on the ranking of long-term strategies were evaluated through calculation of the value of information. The alternatives and their long-term strategies differed across performance metrics, producing unavoidable tradeoffs; thus, there was no long-term strategy that was dominated by another across all performance metrics. When the performance of each alternative was weighted across performance metrics, three alternatives (B, D, and G) were top-ranked depending on the set of weights proposed: Alternative B was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on hydropower; Alternative G was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on the restoration of natural processes, like beachbuilding and natural vegetation; and Alternative D was favored by the remaining stakeholders. Surprisingly, these rankings were not sensitive to the critical uncertainties that were evaluated; that is, the choice of a preferred long-term strategy was sensitive to the value-based judgment about how to place relative weight on the resource goals but was not sensitive to the uncertainties in the system dynamics that were evaluated in this analysis. The one area of uncertainty that did slightly affect the ranking of alternatives was the long-term pattern of hydrological input; because of this sensitivity, some attention to the possible effects of climate change is warranted. The results of the decision analysis are meant to serve as only one of many sources of information that can be used to evaluate the alternatives proposed in the Environmental Impact Statement. These results only focus on those resource goals for which quantitative performance metrics could be formulated and evaluated; there are other important aspects of the resource goals that also need to be considered. Not all the stakeholders who were invited to participate in the decision analysis chose to do so; thus, the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Interior may want to consider other input.

Arizona↗

USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Restoring the Florida Everglades: Insights on integrating sea level rise into decision-support tools

Although coastal ecosystems are impacted by climate change and sea-level rise, many ecological and hydrological models do not yet incorporate sea-level rise projections in their modeling outputs. Therefore, this research examined the various challenges that may prevent sea-level rise from being effectively incorporated in modeling and decision-support tools. We conducted semi-structured interviews with twenty-six professionals involved in Florida’s Everglades restoration. We applied the Diffusions of Innovations Theory to better understand factors that can impact practitioners’ adoption of newly designed decision-support tools that examine sea-level rise in the freshwater Everglades. The Diffusions of Innovations Theory provided insights into practitioners’ perceptions of these tools. We found that these practitioners have a strong interest in using dynamic decision-support tools to plan for sea-level rise impacts on Everglades restoration, particularly when they receive information at appropriate geographic and temporal scales and are given hands-on tools and training. However, challenges that prevent developing these tools include outdated data, limited organizational capacity and funding, limited use of long-term indicators, uncertainty about climate change impacts on local ecosystems, and lack of integration between hydrological and ecological models. Our research also highlights that greater availability of different types of tools can help to meet the needs of the scientific and non-scientific audiences involved in Everglades restoration.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data

Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (20122018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower (<0.95) for individuals aged <5 years, remained high (>0.95) for individuals aged 722 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (1015 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2022

Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics

In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-based metrics. To address this knowledge gap, we developed and examined 27 climate and ecological drought metrics across dryland areas of the western U.S. Included in the 27 metrics is a suite of 19 largely new “ecological drought metrics” that are designed to quantify multiple aspects of environmental limitation in drylands, including overall growing conditions, seasonal fluctuations, seasonal moisture timing, exposure to extreme drought, and recruitment potential for perennial plants. To quantify these metrics, we simulated water balance pools and fluxes of daily soil moisture at multiple depths with historical weather from 1970-2010 using the SOILWAT2 ecosystem water balance model. We assessed the relationships among these metrics and their spatial and temporal patterns. We found that the inclusion of ecological drought metrics substantially increased the dimensionality of the climate metrics dataset; the number of independent variables needed to explain 90% of the variance in the dataset increased with the addition of ecological drought metrics. Spatial patterns in overall growing conditions represented well-known differences among ecoregions, for example high temperatures and low precipitation in the southwest and cool temperatures and greater precipitation in the northeast. Seasonal fluctuation in soil water availability (SWA) was greatest in the southwest (Mojave Desert) while fluctuation in climatic water deficit (CWD) was greatest in the northwest (northern Great Basin and Columbia Plateau). Seasonal timing of moisture also differed among metrics; the timing of wet degree days (WDD), SWA and CWD were only weakly related to seasonal timing of precipitation. Plant recruitment metrics varied strongly across western drylands. In the Great Plains, recruitment events occurred more frequently and lasted longer than in the intermountain regions, where recruitment events were comparatively rare and short. These ecological drought metrics provide new insight into patterns of soil moisture and temperature that shape the structure and function of dryland ecosystems. The metrics will be useful for assessing the potential impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and developing adaptive resource management strategies to sustain dryland ecosystem services in a changing world.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2013

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (D est ) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

North Dakota↗

USGS2013

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Utah↗

USGS2022

Detection and characterization of coastal tidal wetland change in the northeastern US using Landsat time series

Coastal tidal wetlands are highly altered ecosystems exposed to substantial risk due to widespread and frequent land-use change coupled with sea-level rise, leading to disrupted hydrologic and ecologic functions and ultimately, significant reduction in climate resiliency. Knowing where and when the changes have occurred, and the nature of those changes, is important for coastal communities and natural resource management . Large-scale mapping of coastal tidal wetland changes is extremely difficult due to their inherent dynamic nature. To bridge this gap, we developed an automated algorithm for DEtection and Characterization of cOastal tiDal wEtlands change (DECODE) using dense Landsat time series. DECODE consists of three elements, including spectral break detection, land cover classification and change characterization. DECODE assembles all available Landsat observations and introduces a water level regressor for each pixel to flag the spectral breaks and estimate harmonic time-series models for the divided temporal segments. Each temporal segment is classified (e.g., vegetated wetlands, open water, and others – including unvegetated areas and uplands) based on the phenological characteristics and the synthetic surface reflectance values calculated from the harmonic model coefficients, as well as a generic rule-based classification system. This harmonic model-based approach has the advantage of not needing the acquisition of satellite images at optimal conditions (i.e., low tide status) to avoid underestimating coastal vegetation caused by the tidal fluctuation. At the same time, DECODE can also characterize different kinds of changes including land cover change and condition change (i.e., land cover modification without conversion). We used DECODE to track status of coastal tidal wetlands in the northeastern United States from 1986 to 2020. The overall accuracy of land cover classification and change detection is approximately 95.8% and 99.8%, respectively. The vegetated wetlands and open water were mapped with user's accuracy of 94.6% and 99.0%, and producer's accuracy of 98.1% and 93.5%, respectively. The cover change and condition change were mapped with user's accuracy of 68.0% and 80.0%, and producer's accuracy of 80.5% and 97.1%, respectively. Approximately 3283 km 2 of the coastal landscape within our study area in the northeastern United States changed at least once (12% of the study area), and condition changes were the dominant change type (84.3%). Vegetated coastal tidal wetland decreased consistently (~2.6 km 2 per year) in the past 35 years, largely due to conversion to open water in the context of sea-level rise.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2024

Need and vision for global medium-resolution Landsat and Sentinel-2 data products

Global changes in climate and land use are threatening natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem services people rely on. This is why it is necessary to track and monitor spatiotemporal change at a level of detail that can inform science, management, and policy development. The current constellation of multiple Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellites collecting imagery at predominantly ≤ "> ≤ 30-m spatial resolution affords an opportunity for the generation of global medium- resolution products every few days. Our goal is to both identify the information needs and provide direction towards the generation of a suite of global, high-level, systematically-generated, medium-resolution products designed for both management and science. Our vision builds on the success of the NASA MODIS/VIIRS product suite, while recognizing the unique strengths of medium-resolution satellite data given their higher spatial resolution and longer time series. We propose a suite of 13 essential products that enable the characterization of the current state and changes in the biosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere, and would fill information needs identified by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites for the Global Climate Observing System and the Global Terrestrial Observing System, by the National Research Council of the US National Academies in the decadal survey, and by others. These products are: land cover, land cover change, burned area, forest loss, vegetation indices, phenology, dynamic habitat indices, albedo, land surface temperature, snow cover, ice extent, surface water extent, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, we provide a list of desirable products poised for addition to the essential products (e.g., crop type, emissivity, and ice sheet velocity). Lastly, we suggest aspirational products requiring further algorithm development (e.g., forest structure and crop yield). For the identified essential products, algorithms are in place, making it feasible to begin generating products systematically. These products should be accompanied by quality and accuracy assessments undertaken following consensus protocols. Five decades after the first Landsat satellite, and two decades after the MODIS products were first produced, it is time now for readily available, standardized, and consistent high-level products built upon medium-resolution imagery, thereby fulfilling the promise and the vision that inspired the Landsat program since its inception.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2019

An integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America

Climate change is increasing the severity and extent of extreme droughts events, posing a critical threat to freshwater ecosystems, particularly with increasing human demands for diminishing water supplies. Despite the importance of drought as a significant driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, current understanding of drought consequences for freshwater biodiversity is very limited. We describe key barriers that hinder integrative drought research and monitoring across riverscapes. The primary constraint limiting understanding of ecological drought is an existing monitoring framework focused on human water consumption and flood risk in mainstem rivers. This approach is misaligned with escalating needs for research and data collection that illuminate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (i.e., vulnerability) of biota to drought across entire riverscapes. We present a hierarchical framework for integrated ecological drought monitoring and research that addresses drought vulnerability across riverscapes, and describe how this approach can directly inform natural-resource management.

BioScience↗

USGS1985

Optimal management strategies in variable environments: Stochastic optimal control methods

Dynamic optimization was used to investigate the optimal defoliation of salt desert shrubs in north-western Utah. Management was formulated in the context of optimal stochastic control theory, with objective functions composed of discounted or time-averaged biomass yields. Climatic variability and community patterns of salt desert shrublands make the application of stochastic optimal control both feasible and necessary. A primary production model was used to simulate shrub responses and harvest yields under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The simulation results then were used in an optimization model to determine optimal defoliation strategies. The latter model encodes an algorithm for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Three questions were addressed: (i) What effect do changes in weather patterns have on optimal management strategies? (ii) What effect does the discounting of future returns have? (iii) How do the optimal strategies perform relative to certain fixed defoliation strategies? An analysis was performed for the three shrub species, winterfat (Ceratoides lanata), shadscale (Atriplex confertifolia) and big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). In general, the results indicate substantial differences among species in optimal control strategies, which are associated with differences in physiological and morphological characteristics. Optimal policies for big sagebrush varied less with variation in climate, reserve levels and discount rates than did either shadscale or winterfat. This was attributed primarily to the overwintering of photosynthetically active tissue and to metabolic activity early in the growing season. Optimal defoliation of shadscale and winterfat generally was more responsive to differences in plant vigor and climate, reflecting the sensitivity of these species to utilization and replenishment of carbohydrate reserves. Similarities could be seen in the influence of both the discount rate and the climatic patterns on optimal harvest strategics. In general, decreases in either the discount rate or in the frequency of favorable weather patterns lcd to a more conservative defoliation policy. This did not hold, however, for plants in states of low vigor. Optimal control for shadscale and winterfat tended to stabilize on a policy of heavy defoliation stress, followed by one or more seasons of rest. Big sagebrush required a policy of heavy summer defoliation when sufficient active shoot material is present at the beginning of the growing season. The comparison of fixed and optimal strategies indicated considerable improvement in defoliation yields when optimal strategies are followed. The superior performance was attributable to increased defoliation of plants in states of high vigor. Improvements were found for both discounted and undiscounted yields.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS1989

Effects of runoff changes and sea level rise on salinity in the Delaware River estuary

The objective of this study is to investigate changes in the spatial distribution of salt in the Delaware Estuary resulting from climate induced changes in freshwater inflows and in the position of mean sea level. The approach adopted for this study is composed of two parts: An analysis of existing physical data in order to derive a basic understanding of the salt dynamics, and numerical simulation of future conditions based upon this analysis.

Conference Paper↗