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Maximizing the utility of monitoring to the adaptive management of natural resources

Data collection is an important step in any investigation about the structure or processes related to a natural system. In a purely scientific investigation (experiments, quasi-experiments, observational studies), data collection is part of the scientific method, preceded by the identification of hypotheses and the design of any manipulations of the system to test those hypotheses. Data collection and the manipulations that precede it are ideally designed to maximize the information that is derived from the study. That is, such investigations should be designed for maximum power to evaluate the relative validity of the hypotheses posed. When data collection is intended to inform the management of ecological systems, we call it monitoring. Note that our definition of monitoring encompasses a broader range of data-collection efforts than some alternative definitions – e.g. Chapter 3. The purpose of monitoring as we use the term can vary, from surveillance or “thumb on the pulse” monitoring (see Nichols and Williams 2006), intended to detect changes in a system due to any non-specified source (e.g. the North American Breeding Bird Survey), to very specific and targeted monitoring of the results of specific management actions (e.g. banding and aerial survey efforts related to North American waterfowl harvest management). Although a role of surveillance monitoring is to detect unanticipated changes in a system, the same result is possible from a collection of targeted monitoring programs distributed across the same spatial range (Box 4.1). In the face of limited budgets and many specific management questions, tying monitoring as closely as possible to management needs is warranted (Nichols and Williams 2006). Adaptive resource management (ARM; Walters 1986, Williams 1997, Kendall 2001, Moore and Conroy 2006, McCarthy and Possingham 2007, Conroy et al. 2008a) provides a context and specific purpose for monitoring: to evaluate decisions with respect to achievement of specific management objectives; and to evaluate the relative validity of predictive system models. This latter purpose is analogous to the role of data collection within the scientific method, in a research context.

Book chapter↗

Distribution of the non-native gastropod Melanoides tuberculatus in Biscayne National Park, Florida

Introduction Melanoides tuberculatus (fig. 1), a gastropod that is not native to South Florida, was identified in Biscayne National Park (BNP) while researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey were conducting other studies around the Black Point canals in the summer of 2003. A study to determine the distribution, genetics, and salinity tolerance of this freshwater species began in 2004. For park managers and the recreational users of BNP, the presence of Melanoides tuberculatus is cause for concern because it is the intermediate host for several trematode parasites that affect humans and animals in multiple ways: Human health concerns include parasites (trematode worms) that affect the lung (Paragonimus westermani) and the liver ( Clonorchis sinensis , and Opisthorchis sp. ). Skin irritations and lesions can also be caused by trematodes that normally infect other species. Animal health concerns include parasites that affect the eyes of waterfowl ( Philophthalmus megalurus ), a trematode that burrows into the cartilage of fish and can lead to death ( Centrocestus formosanus ), and a trematode that infects the muscle tissue of fish and causes multiple abnormalities ( Haplorchis sp. ). When parasite-infected fish or crustaceans are eaten by birds or mammals, the next stage of the life cycle is in place (fig. 2). Native snail species concerns include the potential displacement of invertebrate species that make up the natural nearshore benthic communities in BNP. M. tuberculatus has very high reproductive rates, reproduces via parthenogenesis, and is live bearing, factors which increase the survivability of the offspring and increase competition for limited resources. These snails are considered to be freshwater animals in their native habitat of Southeast Asia. However, they have been collected in BNP in both estuarine and marine waters along the western margins of BNP and, as far as 1.7 kilometers (km) from shore at the Black Point canal inflow into Biscayne Bay (383 live per square meter (/m 2 ). In BNP, M. tuberculatus is a benthic inhabitant grazing on micro algal components at the sediment surface. A documented population with as many as 23,000/m 2 was observed at Snapper Creek, near Coral Gables, FL (Roessler and others, 1977), north of BNP.

Florida↗

Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus) abundance in a National Conservation Area in Idaho has increased since the 1970s–1990s

The Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA), in southwestern Idaho, USA supports a large population of breeding Prairie Falcons ( Falco mexicanus ). Abundance of Prairie Falcons in the NCA was previously monitored in 1976–1978 and 1990–1994. That research indicated maximum counts for each period in 1976 and 1992 and a possible population decline across that time span. We assessed the abundance and nesting success of Prairie Falcons in the NCA in 2002–2003 and 2019–2021, and we compared results to data from before 2000 to assess possible population change. Number of nesting pairs increased over 45 years from peak counts of 206, 193, and 217 in the 1970s, 1990s, and early 2000s, respectively, to 257 in 2021. Increases were not concentrated in one region, but widely distributed across the study area. Rates of nesting success in 2002–2003 and 2019–2021 averaged 57 ± 11.8% (SD) at 49.8 ± 3.3 nests observed each year and did not differ from pre-2000 rates. Finally, our analysis showed that in all 10 years in which a full census was conducted, a sampling approach to surveys would have been effective at estimating the number of falcons nesting within the NCA. Prairie Falcons are of conservation concern because of possible population declines in parts of their range. These results illustrate an area with apparently increasing numbers of this important species and highlight the importance of long-term surveys for tracking population fluctuations and the value of a national conservation area for providing raptor breeding habitat.

Idaho↗

Instream cover and shade mediate avian predation on trout in semi-natural streams

Piscivory by birds can be significant, particularly on fish in small streams and during seasonal low flow when available cover from predators can be limited. Yet, how varying amounts of cover may change the extent of predation mortality from avian predators on fish is not clear. We evaluated size-selective survival of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) in replicated semi-natural stream sections. These sections provided high (0.01 m2 of cover per m2 of stream) or low (0.002 m2 of cover per m2 of stream) levels of instream cover available to trout and were closed to emigration. Each fish was individually tagged, allowing us to track retention of individuals during the course of the 36-day experiment, which we attributed to survival from predators, because fish had no other way to leave the streams. Although other avian predators may have been active in our system and not detected, the only predator observed was the belted kingfisher Megaceryle alcyon, which is known to prey heavily on fish. In both treatments, trout >20.4 cm were not preyed upon indicating an increased ability to prey upon on smaller individuals. Increased availability of cover improved survival of trout by 12% in high relative to low cover stream sections. Trout also survived better in stream sections with greater shade, a factor we could not control in our system. Collectively, these findings indicate that instream cover and shade from avian predators can play an important role in driving survival of fish in small streams or during periods of low flow.

Oregon↗

Integrated wetland management for waterfowl and shorebirds at Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina

Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) offers a mix of open water, marsh, forest, and cropland habitats on 20,307 hectares in coastal North Carolina. In 1934, Federal legislation (Executive Order 6924) established MNWR to benefit wintering waterfowl and other migratory bird species. On an annual basis, the refuge staff decide how to manage 14 impoundments to benefit not only waterfowl during the nonbreeding season, but also shorebirds during fall and spring migration. In making these decisions, the challenge is to select a portfolio, or collection, of management actions for the impoundments that optimizes use by the three groups of birds while respecting budget constraints. In this study, a decision support tool was developed for these annual management decisions. Within the decision framework, there are three different management objectives: shorebird-use days during fall and spring migrations, and waterfowl-use days during the nonbreeding season. Sixteen potential management actions were identified for impoundments; each action represents a combination of hydroperiod and vegetation manipulation. Example hydroperiods include semi-permanent and seasonal drawdowns, and vegetation manipulations include mechanical-chemical treatment, burning, disking, and no action. Expert elicitation was used to build a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model that predicts shorebird- and waterfowl-use days for each potential management action. The BBN was parameterized for a representative impoundment, MI-9, and predictions were re-scaled for this impoundment to predict outcomes at other impoundments on the basis of size. Parameter estimates in the BBN model can be updated using observations from ongoing monitoring that is part of the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring (IWMM) program. The optimal portfolio of management actions depends on the importance, that is, weights, assigned to the three objectives, as well as the budget. Five scenarios with a variety of objective weights and budgets were developed. Given the large number of possible portfolios (16 14 ), a heuristic genetic algorithm was used to identify a management action portfolio that maximized use-day objectives while respecting budget constraints. The genetic algorithm identified a portfolio of management actions for each of the five scenarios, enabling refuge staff to explore the sensitivity of their management decisions to objective weights and budget constraints. The decision framework developed here provides a transparent, defensible, and testable foundation for decision making at MNWR. The BBN model explicitly structures and parameterizes a mental model previously used by an expert to assign management actions to the impoundments. With ongoing IWMM monitoring, predictions from the model can be tested, and model parameters updated, to reflect empirical observations. This framework is intended to be a living document that can be updated to reflect changes in the decision context (for example, new objectives or constraints, or new models to compete with the current BBN model). Rather than a mandate to refuge staff, this framework is intended to be a decision support tool; tool outputs can become part of the deliberations of refuge staff when making difficult management decisions for multiple objectives.

North Carolina↗

Towards sustainable management of huntable migratory waterbirds in Europe

The EU Birds Directive and the African-Eurasian Waterbird Agreement provide an adequate legal framework for sustainable management of migratory waterbird populations. The main shortcoming of both instruments is that it leaves harvest decisions of a shared resource to individual Member States and Contracting Parties without providing a shared information base and mechanism to assess the impact of harvest and coordinate actions in relation to mutually agreed objectives. A recent update of the conservation status of waterbirds in the EU shows that almost half of the populations of species listed on Annex II of the Birds Directive have a declining short-term trend and over half of them are listed in Columns A and B of AEWA. This implies that their hunting could either only continue under the framework of an adaptive harvest management plan or their hunting should be regulated with the view of restoring them in favourable conservation status. We argue that a structured approach to decision-making (such as adaptive management) is needed, supported with adequate organisational structures at flyway scale. We review the experience with such an approach in North America and assess the applicability of a similar approach in the European context. We show there is no technical reason why adaptive harvest management could be not applied in the EU or even AEWA context. We demonstrate that an informed approach to setting allowable harvests does not require detailed demographic information. Essential to the process, however, are estimates of either the observed growth rate from a monitoring program or the growth rate expected under ideal conditions. In addition, periodic estimates of population size are needed, as well as either empirical information or reasonable assumptions about the form of density dependence. We show that such information exists for many populations, but improvements are needed to improve geographic coverage, reliability and timely data availability. We highlight the importance of the International Waterbird Census and specialised goose and seaduck monitoring in estimating population sizes and observed growth rate of the populations. We encourage further investments into the development of these schemes. We also recognise the importance of migration studies to improve our understanding of delineations of populations. We also highlight that, with a few exceptions, the available data does not allow the European Commission, competent authorities of the Members States or other AEWA Contracting Parties to assess levels of harvest and their sustainability and, therefore, regulate hunting accordingly. Therefore, we recommend that annual reporting on 2 harvest levels of waterbird populations would be gradually introduced in the EU and the AEWA region. We propose that future AEWA and EU action plans and management plans for Annex II species should apply the principles of adaptive harvest management framework and make provisions for setting up adequate monitoring and information management systems and organisational structures to manage the decision-making process. We suggest that internationally coordinated management structures are established to facilitate dialogue, learning and communication between stakeholders with different interests and cultural backgrounds.

Report↗

Habitat heterogeneity, temperature, and primary productivity drive elevational gradients in avian species diversity

Aim Anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change on species diversity in montane ecosystems requires a mechanistic understanding of drivers of current patterns of diversity. We documented the shape of elevational gradients in avian species richness in North America and tested a suite of a priori predictions for each of five mechanistic hypotheses to explain those patterns. Location United States Methods We used predicted occupancy maps generated from species distribution models for each of 646 breeding birds to document elevational patterns in avian species richness across the six largest U.S. mountain ranges. We used spatially explicit biotic and abiotic data to test five mechanistic hypotheses proposed to explain geographic variation in species richness. Results Elevational gradients in avian species richness followed a consistent pattern of low elevation plateau-mid-elevation peak (as per McCain, 2009). We found support for three of the five hypotheses to explain the underlying cause of this pattern: the habitat heterogeneity, temperature, and primary productivity hypotheses. Main Conclusions Species richness typically decreases with elevation, but the primary cause and precise shape of the relationship remain topics of debate. We used a novel approach to study the richness-elevation relationship and our results are unique in that they show a consistent relationship between species richness and elevation among 6 mountain ranges, and universal support for three hypotheses proposed to explain the underlying cause of the observed relationship. Taken together, these results suggest that elevational variation in food availability may be the ecological process that best explains elevational gradients in avian species richness in North America. Although much attention has focused on the role of abiotic factors, particularly temperature, in limiting species’ ranges, our results offer compelling evidence that other processes also influence (and may better explain) elevational gradients in species richness.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Testing the use of bulk organic δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and C org :N tot ratios to estimate subsidence during the 1964 great Alaska earthquake

During the M w 9.2 1964 great Alaska earthquake, Turnagain Arm near Girdwood, Alaska subsided 1.7 ± 0.1 m based on pre- and postearthquake leveling. The coseismic subsidence in 1964 caused equivalent sudden relative sea-level (RSL) rise that is stratigraphically preserved as mud-over-peat contacts where intertidal silt buried peaty marsh surfaces. Changes in intertidal microfossil assemblages across these contacts have been used to estimate subsidence in 1964 by applying quantitative microfossil transfer functions to reconstruct corresponding RSL rise. Here, we review the use of organic stable C and N isotope values and C org :N tot ratios as alternative proxies for reconstructing coseismic RSL changes, and report independent estimates of subsidence in 1964 by using δ 13 C values from intertidal sediment to assess RSL change caused by the earthquake. We observe that surface sediment δ 13 C values systematically decrease by ∼4‰ over the ∼2.5 m increase in elevation along three 60- to 100-m-long transects extending from intertidal mud flat to upland environments. We use a straightforward linear regression to quantify the relationship between modern sediment δ 13 C values and elevation ( n = 84, R 2 = 0.56). The linear regression provides a slope–intercept equation used to reconstruct the paleoelevation of the site before and after the earthquake based on δ 13 C values in sandy silt above and herbaceous peat below the 1964 contact. The regression standard error (average = ±0.59‰) reflects the modern isotopic variability at sites of similar surface elevation, and is equivalent to an uncertainty of ±0.4 m elevation with respect to Mean Higher High Water. To reduce potential errors in paleoelevation and subsidence estimates, we analyzed multiple sediment δ 13 C values in nine cores on a shore-perpendicular transect at Bird Point. Our method estimates 1.3 ± 0.4 m of coseismic RSL rise across the 1964 contact by taking the arithmetic mean of the differences ( n = 9) between reconstructed elevations for sediment above and below the 1964 earthquake subsidence contact. This estimate compares well with independent subsidence estimates derived from post-earthquake leveling in Turnagain Arm, and from microfossil transfer functions at Girdwood (1.50 ± 0.32 m). While our results support the use of bulk organic δ 13 C for reconstructing RSL change in southern Alaska, the variability of stable isotope values in modern and buried intertidal sediment required the analysis of multiple samples to reduce error.

Alaska↗

Detecting stochasticity in population time series using a non-parametric test of intrinsic predictability

1. Many ecological systems dominated by stochastic dynamics can produce complex time series that inherently limit forecast accuracy. The ‘intrinsic predictability’ of these systems can be approximated by a time series complexity metric called weighted permutation entropy (WPE). While WPE is a useful metric to gauge forecast performance prior to model building, it is sensitive to noise and may be biased depending on the length of the time series. Here, we introduce a simple randomized permutation test (rWPE) to assess whether a time series is intrinsically more predictable than white noise. 2. We apply rWPE to both simulated and empirical data to assess its performance and usefulness. To do this, we simulate population dynamics under various scenarios, including a linear trend, chaotic, periodic and equilibrium dynamics. We further test this approach with observed abundance time series for 932 species across four orders of animals from the Global Population Dynamics Database. Finally, using Adélie ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) and emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) time series as case studies, we demonstrate the application of rWPE to multiple populations for a single species. 3. We show that rWPE can determine whether a system is significantly more predictable than white noise, even with time series as short as 10 years that show an apparent trend under biologically realistic stochasticity levels. Additionally, rWPE has statistical power close to 100% when time series are at least 30 time steps long and show chaotic or periodic dynamics. Power decreases to ~10% under equilibrium dynamics, irrespective of time series length. Among four classes of animal taxa, mammals have the highest relative frequency (28%) of time series that are both longer than 30 time steps and indistinguishable from white noise in terms of complexity, followed by insects (16%), birds (16%) and bony fishes (11%). 4. rWPE is a straightforward and useful method widely applicable to any time series, including short ones. By informing forecasters of the inherent limitations to a system's predictability, it can guide a modeller's expectations for forecast performance.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Detection probability and occupancy of American woodcock during Singing-ground surveys

The Singing-ground Survey (SGS) was designed to exploit the conspicuous breeding-season display of male American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ; hereafter, woodcock) to monitor these otherwise inconspicuous birds. The SGS was standardized in 1968 and has since been conducted annually to derive an index of abundance and population trend. Counts of singing male woodcock on the SGS have generally declined through time, but without knowledge of the relationship among counts, woodcock abundance, and the factors affecting detection, considerable uncertainty remains in interpretation of SGS data. Using modified SGS protocols, we surveyed SGS routes in Pine County, Minnesota, in 2009 and 2010 and developed models to assess factors associated with detection probability and estimated occupancy. The intercept-only model (i.e., constant detection and occupancy probabilities across sites and no covariates) included overall detection probability of 0.59 (SE = 0.018) in 2009 and 0.66 (SE = 0.017) in 2010 with an occupancy estimate of 0.74 (SE = 0.049) in 2009 and 0.81 (SE = 0.044) in 2010. The best-supported model of detection probability for both years combined included detection as a function of woodcock abundance, observer, date, disturbance level (i.e., ambient noise that interfered with detecting woodcock), and wind speed. High wind speeds were negatively related to detection, different observers had different detection probabilities, date was quadratically related to detection (indicating a mid-period peak in detection), and high woodcock abundance and low disturbance levels were positively related to detection. We provide suggestions for incorporating these resulting into SGS protocol and analyses.

Minnesota↗

Comparison of seven DNA metabarcoding sampling methods to assess diet in a large avian predator

DNA metabarcoding is a rapidly advancing tool for diet assessment in wildlife ecology. Studies have used a variety of field collection methods to evaluate diet; however, there is a pressing need to understand the differences among sampling methods and the downstream inferential consequences they may have on our ability to document diet accurately and efficiently. We evaluated seven DNA metabarcoding sampling methods to assess the diet of a large avian predator: Buteo lagopus (rough-legged hawk). We collected beak swabs, talon swabs, cheek (buccal) swabs, cloacal swabs, and cloacal loops from captured birds, and collected fecal samples from both captured and uncaptured birds. We described and compared variation in prey recovery within and among the seven sampling methods and identified appropriate analytical methods to compare diet among individuals sampled via different methods. Beak and talon swabs produced the highest prey detection rates, yielded the greatest prey richness per sample, and contributed the most to an individual's total prey richness per sampling occasion compared to other sampling methods. Within individuals sampled using five methods during a single capture occasion, cloacal swabs and cheek swabs positively predicted prey richness and average prey mass, respectively, from fecal samples. While all methods identified similar dominant prey taxa that were consistent with prior diet studies, beak and talon swabs detected greater prey richness at both the individual and population levels. We propose a food residue duration hypothesis whereby methods which sample areas containing food DNA consumed from longer and more continuous pre-sampling time intervals explain variation among sampling methods in observed prey richness. Choice of sampling method can influence predator diet characterization and is particularly important if researchers wish to quantify uncommon diet items or compare diet metrics using samples collected via different methods.

Environmental DNA↗

An evaluation of transmitter effects on adult and juvenile Common Terns using leg-loop harness attachments

Marking birds with transmitters allows for the collection of data that are critical for fully understanding avian life history, but researchers must also be confident that performing such studies is as safe as possible for transmittered individuals. While much could be learned from tracking juveniles across dependency periods and first migration, doing so would require a harness-based attachment method which has not been evaluated on any species of juvenile tern. Therefore, we monitored the reproductive success and behavior of adult Common Terns ( Sterna hirundo ) and the growth and behavior of juvenile Common Terns after attaching transmitters to adults and juveniles with leg-loop harnesses made of elastic cord. We found that transmittered adults had similar reproductive success to untransmittered controls (hatching success for nests of transmittered adults = 0.553; nests of control adults = 0.665). Transmittered adults also expressed minimal behavioral differences from untransmittered controls when the groups were compared via paired treatment-control nest observations along with observations away from the nest. Transmittered juveniles had similar fledging success and growth rates to untransmittered control juveniles (fledging success for transmittered juveniles = 0.766; control juveniles = 0.817). Transmittered juveniles exhibited slight differences in behavior from controls, with increased rates of preening, although these differences did not appear to be detrimental. Finally, monitoring efforts during the breeding season following transmitter deployment found no difference in the return rate, nesting attempt rate, or hatching success rate based on treatment (P > 0.05). However, despite evidence of an individual retaining its transmitter into fall migration, no individuals retained their transmitters when resighted the following breeding season. While our results show that leg-loop harnesses made of elastic cord present a potential option for transmitter attachment to both adult and juvenile Common Terns, additional testing could provide further insight into potential long-term impacts.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Wind energy development: Methods for assessing risks to birds and bats pre-construction

Wind power generation is rapidly expanding. Although wind power is a low-carbon source of energy, it can impact negatively birds and bats, either directly through fatality or indirectly by displacement or habitat loss. Pre-construction risk assessment at wind facilities within the United States is usually required only on public lands. When conducted, it generally involves a 3-tier process, with each step leading to more detailed and rigorous surveys. Preliminary site assessment (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Tier 1) is usually conducted remotely and involves evaluation of existing databases and published materials. If potentially at-risk wildlife are present and the developer wishes to continue the development process, then on-site surveys are conducted (Tier 2) to verify the presence of those species and to assess site-specific features (e.g., topography, land cover) that may influence risk from turbines. The next step in the process (Tier 3) involves quantitative or scientific studies to assess the potential risk of the proposed project to wildlife. Typical Tier-3 research may involve acoustic, aural, observational, radar, capture, tracking, or modeling studies, all designed to understand details of risk to specific species or groups of species at the given site. Our review highlights several features lacking from many risk assessments, particularly the paucity of before-and-after-control- impact (BACI) studies involving modeling and a lack of understanding of cumulative effects of wind facilities on wildlife. Both are essential to understand effective designs for pre-construction monitoring and both would help expand risk assessment beyond eagles.

Human-Wildlife Interactions↗

What constitutes a nesting attempt? Variation in criteria causes bias and hinders comparisons across studies

Because reliable estimates of nesting success are very important to avian studies, the defnition of a “successful nest” and the use of different analytical methods to estimate success have received much attention. By contrast, variation in the criteria used to determine whether an occupied site that did not produce offspring contained a nesting attempt is a source of bias that has been largely ignored. This problem is especially severe in studies that deal with species whose nest contents are relatively inaccessible because observers cannot determine whether or not an egg was laid for a large proportion of occupied sites. Burrowing Owls ( Athene cunicularia ) often lay their eggs ≥3 m below ground, so past Burrowing Owl studies have used a variety of criteria to determine whether a nesting attempt was initiated. We searched the literature to document the extent of that variation and examined how that variation influenced estimates of daily nest survival. We found 13 different sets of criteria used by previous authors and applied each criterion to our data set of 1,300 occupied burrows. We found significant variation in estimates of daily nest survival depending on the criteria used. Moreover, differences in daily nest survival among populations were apparent using some sets of criteria but not others. These inconsistencies may lead to incorrect conclusions and invalidate comparisons of the productivity and relative site quality among populations. We encourage future authors working on cavity-, canopy-, or burrow-nesting birds to provide specific details on the criteria they used to identify a nesting attempt.

The Auk↗

Detailed study of irrigation drainage in and near wildlife management areas, west-central Nevada, 1987-90; Part B, Effect on biota in Stillwater and Fernley Wildlife Management Areas and other nearby wetlands

A water-quality reconnaissance study during 1986-87 found high concentrations of several potentially toxic elements in water, bottom sediment, and biota in and near Stillwater Wildlife Management Area (WMA). This study prompted the U.S. Department of the Interior to initiate a more detailed study to determine the hydrogeochemical processes that control water quality in the Stillwater WMA, and other nearby wetlands, and the resulting effects on biota, especially migratory birds. Present wetland size is about 10% of historical size; the dissolved- solids load in the water in these now-isolated wetlands has increased only moderately, but the dissolved-solids concentration has increased more than seven-fold. Wetland vegetation has diminished and species composition in flow water has shifted to predominant salt-tolerant species in many areas. Decreased vegetative cover for nesting is implicated in declining waterfowl production. Decreases in numbers or virtual absence of several wildlife species are attributed to degraded water quality. Results of toxicity tests indicate that water in some drains and wetland areas is acutely toxic to some fish and invertebrates. Toxicity is attributed to the combined presence of arsenic, boron, lithium, and molybdenum. Biological pathways are involved in the transport of mercury and selenium from agricultural drains to wetlands. Hatch success of both artificially incubated and field-reared duck eggs was greater than/= 90 percent; no teratogenesis was observed. Mercury in muscle tissue of waterfowl harvested from Carson Lake in October 1987 exceeded the human health criterion six-fold.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Establishing Forster’s Tern ( Sterna forsteri ) nesting sites at pond A16 using social attraction for the South Bay Salt Pond restoration project

Forster’s terns ( Sterna forsteri ), historically one of the most numerous colonial-breeding waterbirds in South San Francisco Bay, California, have experienced recent decreases in the number of nesting colonies and overall breeding population size. The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project aims to restore 50–90 percent of former salt evaporation ponds to tidal marsh habitat in South San Francisco Bay. During phase 1 of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, the breaching of several pond levees to begin the process of tidal marsh restoration inundated island nesting habitat that had been used by Forster’s terns, American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), and other waterbirds. Additional nesting habitat could be lost as more managed ponds are converted to tidal marsh in the future. To address this issue, the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project organized the construction of new nesting islands in managed ponds that will not be restored to tidal marsh, thereby providing enduring island nesting habitat for waterbirds. In 2012, 16 new islands were constructed in Pond A16 in the Alviso complex of the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, which increased the number of islands in this pond from 4 to 20. However, despite a long history of nesting on the four islands in Pond A16 before the 2012 construction activities, no Forster’s terns have nested in Pond A16 during the 7-year period (2012–18) after island construction. During the 2017 and 2019 breeding seasons, we used social attraction measures (decoys and colony call playback systems) to attract Forster’s terns to islands within Pond A16 to re-establish nesting colonies. We maintained these systems from March through August in each year. To evaluate the effect of these social attraction measures, we completed surveys (between April and August) where we recorded the number and location of all Forster’s terns and other waterbirds using Pond A16, and we monitored waterbird nests. We compared bird survey and nest monitoring data collected in 2017 and 2019 to data collected in 2015 and 2016, prior to the implementation of social attraction measures, allowing for direct evaluation of the effect of social attraction efforts on Forster’s terns. To increase the visibility and stakeholder involvement of this project, we engaged in multiple outreach activities in 2017, 2019, and 2020, including the development of a project website and educational video; publication of popular articles in 2017 and 2020; the development of outreach materials describing the project to the general public; and public presentations to relay findings to managers, stakeholders, and the general public. The relative abundance of Forster’s terns in Pond A16, after adjusting for the overall South San Francisco Bay breeding population each year, was higher during the nesting period in 2017 and 2019 (when social attraction was used) than in 2015 and 2016 (before social attraction was used). Furthermore, more Forster’s terns were observed during the pre-nesting and nesting periods in the areas of Pond A16 where decoys and call systems were deployed. Although no Forster’s tern nests were observed in Pond A16 before social attraction was implemented (2015, 2016), or during the first-year social attraction was implemented (2017), 35 Forster’s tern nests were recorded during the second year of social attraction implementation in 2019. These 35 nests represent a re-establishment of a Forster’s tern nesting colony to Pond A16 for the first time in 8 years. As social attraction efforts often benefit from multiple years of decoy and call system deployment, results from 2017 and 2019 suggest that continued implementation of social attraction measures could help to ensure Forster’s tern breeding colonies persist in Pond A16 and other areas of South San Francisco Bay.

California↗

Vegetation characteristics important to common songbirds in east Texas

Multivariate studies of breeding bird communities have used principal component analysis (PCA) or several-group (three or more groups) discriminant function analysis (DFA) to ordinate bird species on vegetational continua (Cody 1968, James 1971, Whitmore 1975). In community studies, high resolution of habitat requirements for individual species is not always possible with either PCA or several-group DFA. When habitat characteristics of several species are examined with a DFA the resultant axes optimally discriminate among all species simultaneously. Hence, the characteristics assigned to a particular species reflect in part the presence of other species in the analyses. A better resolution of each species' habitat requirements may be obtained from a two-group DFA, wherein habitats selected by a species are discriminated from all other available habitats. Analyses using two-group DFAs to compare habitat used by a species with habitat unused by the same species have the potential to provide an optimal frame of reference from which to examine habitat variables (Martinka 1972, Conner and Adkisson 1976, Whitmore 1981). Mathematically (DFA) it is possible to maximally separate two groups of multivariate observations with a single axis (Harner and whitmore 1977). A line drawn in three or n-dimensional space can easily be positioned to intersect two multivariate means (centroids). If three or more centroids for species are analyzed simultaneously, a single line can no longer intersect all centroids unless a perfectly linear relationship exists for the species being examined. The probability of such an occurrence is extremely low. Thus, a high degree of resolution can be realized when a two-group DFA is used to determine habitat parameters important to individual species. We have used two-group DFA to identify vegetation variable important to 12 common species of songbirds in East Texas.

Texas↗

Earth history and the passerine superradiation

Avian diversification has been influenced by global climate change, plate tectonic movements, and mass extinction events. However, the impact of these factors on the diversification of the hyperdiverse perching birds (passerines) is unclear because family level relationships are unresolved and the timing of splitting events among lineages is uncertain. We analyzed DNA data from 4060 nuclear loci and 137 passerine families using concatenation and coalescent approaches to infer a comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis that clarifies relationships among all passerine families. Then, we calibrated this phylogeny using 13 fossils to examine the effects of different events in Earth history on the timing and rate of passerine diversification. Our analyses reconcile passerine diversification with the fossil and geological records, suggest that passerines originated on the Australian landmass ~47 Ma, and show that subsequent dispersal and diversification of passerines was affected by a number of climatological and geological events, such as Oligocene glaciation and inundation of the New Zealand landmass. Although passerine diversification rates fluctuated throughout the Cenozoic, we find no link between the rate of passerine diversification and Cenozoic global temperature, and our analyses show that the increases in passerine diversification we observe are disconnected from the colonization of new continents. Taken together, these results suggest more complex mechanisms than temperature change or ecological opportunity have controlled macroscale patterns of passerine speciation.

PNAS↗