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USGS2007

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗
USGS2002

Cruise report RV Moana Wave Cruise M-1-02-GM bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of the mid and outer continental shelf, head of De Soto Canyon, northeastern Gulf of Mexico June 17, through July 9, 2002 Pensacola, FL to Pensacola, FL

The mid to outer continental shelf off Mississippi-Alabama and off northwest Florida were the focus of US Geological Survey (USGS) multibeam echosounder (MBES) mapping cruises in 2000 and 2001, respectively. These areas were mapped to investigate the extent of "deep-water reefs" first suggested by Ludwick and Walton (1957). The reefs off Mississippi and Alabama were initially described in water depths of 60 to 120 m (Ludwick and Walton, 1957) but the 2000 mapping found reef and hardgrounds to be much more extensive than previously thought (Gardner et al., 2001). The persistent trend of reef-like features along the outer shelf of Mississippi-Alabama suggested the trend might continue along the northwest Florida mid and outer shelf so a MBES-mapping effort was mounted in 2001 to test this suggestion. It is critical to determine the accurate location, geomorphology, and types of the ridges and reefs that occur in this region to understand the Quaternary history of the area and to assess their importance as benthic habitats for fisheries. The 2001 survey found a series of shelf-depth platforms with ridges (possibly reefs) constructed on their surfaces (Gardner et al., 2002). The area known as the "head of De Soto Canyon" is the large unmapped region between the 2000 and 2001 mapped areas. The head of De Soto Canyon is an outer shelf zone with a relatively steep western wall and a much gentler eastern wall. It was unknown prior to this cruise whether the reefs of the Mississippi-Alabama shelf continue eastward into the head of De Soto Canyon and connect with the ridges and reefs mapped on the northwest Florida outer shelf. The existence of carbonate-cemented latest Quaternary to Holocene sandstones along the western wall of the head of De Soto Canyon (Shipp and Hopkins, 1978; Benson et al., 1997; W.W. Schroeder, personnel comm., 2002) is of interest because of the potential benthic habitats they may represent. Precisely georeferenced high-resolution mapping of bathymetry is a fundamental first step in the study of an area suspected to be critical benthic habitats. Morphology is thought to be critical to define the distribution of dominant demersal plankton/planktivores communities. Community structure and trophodynamics of demersal fishes of the outer continental shelf of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico presently are focuses of a major USGS research project. A goal of the project is to answer questions concerning the relative roles played by morphology and surficial geology in controlling biological differentiation. Deep-water ridges, reefs, and outcrops are important because they are fish havens and key spawning sites, and are critical habitats for larval, juvenile, and economically important sport/food fishes.

Gulf of Mexico, head Of De Soto Canyon↗
USGS2018

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Hope Basin Province, 2008

The Hope Basin, an independent petroleum province that lies mostly offshore in the southern Chukchi Sea north of the Chukotka and Seward Peninsulas and south of Wrangel Island, the Herald Arch, and the Lisburne Peninsula, is the largest in a series of postorogenic (successor) basins in the East Siberian-Chukchi Sea region and the only one with exploratory-well control and extensive seismic coverage. In spite of the seismic coverage and well data, the petroleum potential of the Hope Basin Province is poorly known. The adequacy of hydrocarbon charge, in combination with uncertainties in source-rock potential and maturation, was the greatest risk in this assessment. A single assessment unit was defined and assessed, resulting in mean estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable resources that include ~3 million barrels of oil and 650 billion cubic feet of nonassociated gas.

Professional Paper↗
USGS1999

Stream and aquifer biology of south-central Texas — A literature review, 1973-97

This report summarizes in table format 32 aquatic vertebrate (primarily fish), 54 aquatic invertebrate, and 13 aquatic plant studies available for the area of the South-Central Texas study unit of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment. The studies, published mostly during 1973–97, pertain to the Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces River Basins, the San Antonio-Nueces and Nueces-Rio Grande Coastal Basins, and the Edwards aquifer where it underlies the upper parts of the three river basins. The biology of the study-unit streams is determined mostly by the characteristics of the ecoregions they transect—the Edwards Plateau, Texas Blackland Prairies, East Central Texas Plains, Western Gulf Coastal Plain, and Southern Texas Plains. About 20 percent of the previous fish and invertebrate studies and about 75 percent of the aquatic plant surveys have centered on Comal Springs in Comal County and San Marcos Springs in Hays County. Although several important studies are available for the San Antonio region, documentation of aquatic biology for the remainder of the study unit is relatively sparse. The streams in the study unit, particularly in the Edwards Plateau, support three dominant biological groups—fish, aquatic invertebrates, and plants. Potential threats to these organisms include impoundments and flood-control projects, siltation from erosion, ground-water pumping, recreational activities, wastewater discharge, and introduction of non-native species. More than 30 non-native fish, invertebrate, and plant species have been introduced into the region. Of the 19 aquatic species Federally listed as endangered or threatened in Texas, 8 are associated with springs and spring runs in the study unit. All of the endangered species in the study unit are associated with springs and spring runs. A large number of endemic species in the study unit are associated with subterranean aquatic ecosystems, most likely a consequence of the unique proximity of the varied topographic and hydrologic conditions of the area and of the geological development of the Edwards aquifer. Ninety-one endemics, including 44 species found solely underground, are associated with the aquatic ecosystems (including springs) of the Edwards aquifer.

Texas↗
USGS2000

A field guide for the assessment of erosion, sediment transport, and deposition in incised channels of the southwestern United States

Deeply incised channels, commonly called arroyos, are a typical feature of the dry alluvium-filled valleys of the southwestern United States. Unlike many geological processes that operate over millions of years, the formation of many miles of arroyos is one that took place in a little more than a century. Most arroyos in the region began to form in the late 19th century. Because dry landscapes change so quickly, they present society with special problems. Rapid expansion of channels by headcut migration, deepening, and widening causes loss of productive agricultural and commercial lands and threatens infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and buildings. High rates of sedimentation shorten the life of reservoirs, clog culverts, and fill stream channels to the extent that they can no longer contain streamflow within their banks. This report presents an explanation of erosional and depositional processes in desert landscapes, especially those characterized by incised channels, for the use of those who use, manage, and live on such lands. The basic principles of erosion, sediment transport, and deposition are presented including the formation of sediment, the forces that erode and transport it, the forces that resist its erosion and transport, and the conditions that cause it to be deposited. The peculiarities of sedimentation processes in the Southwest include the infrequent and variable precipitation, the geological setting, and the sparseness of vegetation. A classification system for incised channels that is intended for users who do not necessarily have a background in fluvial hydrology has been developed and is presented in this report. The classification system is intended to enable a user to classify a reach of channel quickly on the basis of field observations. The system is based on the shape and condition of channels and on the sedimentation processes that are predominantly responsible for those conditions. Because those processes are controlled by environmental factors operating on the entire drainage basin, classification of channels can provide land managers and users with an understanding of what areas are likely to be most susceptible to erosion or the effects of high sedimentation rates and under what conditions they are most likely to occur.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

The 1952 Kern County, California earthquake: A case study of issues in the analysis of historical intensity data for estimation of source parameters

Seismic intensity data based on first-hand accounts of shaking give valuable insight into historical and early instrumental earthquakes. Comparing an observed intensity distribution to intensity-prediction models based on modern calibration events allows the magnitude to be estimated for many historic earthquakes. Magnitude estimates can also potentially be refined for earthquakes for which limited instrumental data are available. However, the complicated nature of macroseismic data and the methods used to collect and interpret the data introduce significant uncertainties. In this paper, we illustrate these challenges and possible solutions using the 1952 Kern County, California, earthquake as a case study. Published estimates of its magnitude vary from M W 7.2–7.5, making it possibly the second largest in California during the 20th century. We considered over 1100 first-hand reports of shaking, supplemented with other data, and inferred the magnitude in several ways using intensity prediction equations, yielding a preferred intensity magnitude M I 7.2 ± 0.2, where the uncertainty reflects our judgement. The revised intensity distribution reveals stronger shaking on the hanging wall, south of the surface expression of the White Wolf fault, than on the footwall. Characterizing the magnitude and shaking distribution of this early instrumental earthquake can help improve estimation of the seismic hazard of the region. Such reinterpreted intensities for historic earthquakes, combined with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Did You Feel It? data for more recent events, can be used to produce a uniform shaking dataset with which earthquake hazard map performance can be assessed.

California↗
USGS2024

An accuracy assessment of the surface reflectance product from the EMIT imaging spectrometer

The Earth surface Mineral dust source InvesTigation (EMIT) is an imaging spectrometer launched to the International Space Station in July 2022 to measure the mineral composition of Earth’s dust-producing regions. We present a systematic accuracy assessment of the EMIT surface reflectance product in two parts. First, we characterize the surface reflectance product’s overall performance using multiple independent vicarious calibration field experiments with hand-held and automated field spectrometers. We find that the EMIT surface reflectance product has a standard error of ±1.0 % in absolute reflectance units for temporally coincident observations. Discrepancies rise to ±2.7 % for spectra acquired at different dates and times of day, which we attribute mainly to changes in solar geometry. Second, we develop an error budget that explains the differences between EMIT and in-situ field spectrometer data. We find that uncertainties in spatial footprints, field spectroscopy, and the EMIT-reported measurement were sufficient to explain discrepancies in most cases. Our approach did not detect any systematic calibration or reflectance errors in the timespan considered. Together, these findings demonstrate that a space-based imaging spectrometer can acquire high-quality spectra across a wide range of observational and atmospheric conditions.

Nevada↗
USGS2007

Geophysical framework investigations influencing ground-water resources in east-central Nevada and west-central Utah, with a section on geologic and geophysical basin by basin descriptions

A geophysical investigation was undertaken as part of an effort to characterize the geologic framework influencing ground-water resources in east-central Nevada and west-central Utah. New gravity data were combined with existing aeromagnetic, drill-hole, and geologic data to help determine basin geometry, infer structural features, estimate depth to pre-Cenozoic basement rocks, and further constrain the horizontal extents of exposed and buried plutons. In addition, a three-dimensional (3D) geologic model was constructed to help illustrate the often complex geometries of individual basins and aid in assessing the connectivity of adjacent basins. In general, the thirteen major valleys within the study area have axes oriented north-south and frequently contain one or more sub-basins. These basins are often asymmetric and typically reach depths of 2 km. Analysis of gravity data helped delineate geophysical lineaments and accommodation zones. Structural complexities may further compartmentalize ground-water flow within basins and the influence of tectonics on basin sedimentation further complicates their hydrologic properties. The horizontal extent of exposed and, in particular, buried plutons was estimated over the entire study area. The location and subsurface extents of these plutons will be very important for regional water resource assessments, as these features may act as either barriers or pathways for groundwater flow. A previously identified basement gravity low strikes NW within the study area and occurs within a highly extended terrane between the Butte and Confusion synclinoria. Evidence from geophysical, geologic, and seismic reflection data suggests relatively lower density plutonic rocks may extend to moderate crustal depths and rocks of similar composition may be the source of the entire basement gravity anomaly.

Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2018

Quantifying effects of deer browsing on vegetation establishment, growth and development in large-extent overwash fans

Hurricane Sandy provided a unique opportunity to better understand the potential effects of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus borealis ) on recovering vegetation in areas overwashed by Hurricane Sandy in the Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area. White-tailed deer are the dominant herbivore on Fire Island and they are known to decrease plant diversity, limit reproduction and growth of some plant species, and facilitate growth and expansion of non-native species through selective browsing. Deer also negatively affect the federally-threatened seabeach amaranth plants along the island’s beaches. Deer impacts to forest understory and regeneration have been documented in Fire Island’s Sunken Forest for decades, though their impacts to recovering dune vegetation are less understood and could restrict the resilience and recovery of primary dunes. Through use of several vegetation assessment methods, including point intercept and paired permanent exclosures, and deer monitoring with trail cameras, we documented high variability in among-overwash species richness, vegetation cover, and local deer abundance. We observed 29 vegetation species among overwash fans between 2015 and 2016. Greater vegetation cover was observed in northern (i.e., inland) areas of all overwash fans, and greater cover and species richness were documented in fenced permanent plots than in control plots. The greatest effect of deer browsing to recovering dune vegetation was in total vegetation cover, which was significantly greater in fenced permanent plots. Any amaranth plants left open (i.e., un-exclosed) were often heavily browsed and experienced early onset mortality without reproducing. Since Hurricane Sandy, total vegetation cover in overwash fans has significantly increased each year, despite deer activity and a regional drought in 2016. While deer graze and browse vegetation in overwash fans, deer and humans trample vegetation in some overwash fans and separating effects of each is not possible from exclusion studies alone. Two overwash fans have been consistently impacted by coastal disturbances since Hurricane Sandy, further complicating their recoveries. Monitoring of dune vegetation should continue as communities transition from predominantly grasses to shrubs and forbs to assess effects of deer as palatability of vegetation improves.

New York↗
USGS1978

Geotechnical properties of northern Bering Sea sediment

The physical properties of sediments taken from the northern Bering Sea (Norton Sound area) have been determined in order to evaluate their impact on recently identified possible geologic hazards in the area. Standard identification tests (water content, Atterberg limits, grain size, specific gravity and density) as well as shear strength and compressional testing were conducted either on board the ship or in the laboratory. The greatest thickness of Holocene sediment occurs in Norton Sound and is located in the Yukon prodelta region. This sediment is predominantly sand-silt that appears to be highly overconsolidated. The observed overconsolidation, in view of the shallow water depths throughout the region, appears to be related to storm wave surges that severely affect the bottom. Indications of gas-charged sediment have been found in several areas of Norton Sound. Gas-charged sediment has been responsible for failures of structures in other resource development areas and generally will tend to reduce the strength characteristics of the sediment, as a result of generation of high excess pore pressures. The overall stability of the bottom sediment could be seriously affected, particularly if excess pore pressures are generated by storm wave activity in regions of gas-charged sediment. Because of the difficulty experienced with sampling intact gas-charged sediments, in-place testing equipment is considered necessary for future work to more accurately assess the impact and extent of the gas charging. Several cores that were taken for this study penetrated into peaty muds. The overall extent of the peaty muds and stability characteristics are not well known at this time, but should be assessed in future work with coring devices capable of greater penetration depths.

Alaska↗
USGS1997

Parasites of lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ) from Lake Superior, with special reference to use of parasites as markers of stock structure

We examined parasites of 152 lake herring ( Coregonus artedi ) collected from three locations in Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior in 1994, four locations in Wisconsin waters in 1996, and one location in Minnesota waters in 1996 to determine; 1) the species composition and relative abundances of parasites in lake herring, 2) the differences in parasite relative abundances across locations sampled, and 3) the utility of parasite relative abundances as markers of stock structure. Parasites from 19 taxa infected lake herring collected in 1994 and 1996; Henneguya zschokkei , Chloromyxum sp., and Cyatho-cephalus truncatus were reported in fishes from Lake Superior for the first time, and Clinostomum mar-ginatum was reported in lake herring for the first time. Significant differences in abundances of eight parasite taxa were found across locations sampled in 1996, with most of the differences occurring between fish from Minnesota and Wisconsin waters. Nonparametric discriminant function analyses correctly classified 105 of the 108 fish (97%) from Wisconsin waters in 1994 and 1996 and also correctly classified 9 of the 13 fish (69%) from the one location in Minnesota waters. This indicated that little mixing of lake herring from those regions occurred and that the potential exists to use parasite abundances as a marker of lake herring stock structure. This was the first time that multivariate analysis of parasites have been used in the Great Lakes to assess stock structure of fishes. Because the technique was highly successful at classifying locations of our samples, we recommend that parasite abundances in lake herring from all areas of the lake be analyzed as part of a larger study to determine whether lake herring from populations throughout the lake can be as accurately classified as were fish in our study.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2007

Regional Studies of the Potwar Plateau Area, Northern Pakistan

The papers in this volume are products of a cooperative program between the Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), sponsored by the Government of Pakistan and the U.S. Agency for International Development. The focus of the program, the Coal Resources Exploration and Assessment Program (COALREAP), was to explore and assess Pakistan?s indigenous coal resources. As part of COALREAP, GSP and USGS geologists conducted regional geologic studies from 1988 to 1991 of the coal-bearing areas in the Potwar region of northern Pakistan. A reference section was selected from which to obtain faunal and floral analyses. The composite sections at Nammal Pass and Nammal Dam served as the basis for this regional reference. Although this Bulletin 2078 is being released in 2007, the writing and technical reviews were completed in 1993, and the chapters reflect the work done until that time. During the long production process for the Bulletin, which ultimately resulted in the oversize plates being digitized, the scientific content of the chapters was not changed, and most reports published since 1993 were not cited. A change in the age of the Patala Formation is discussed below [in the full preface], but the age discussions and illustrations in the chapters were not updated.

Bulletin↗
USGS2008

Concentration and spatial distribution of selected constituents in Detroit River bed sediment adjacent to Grassy Island, Michigan, August 2006

In August 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, collected sediment?core samples from the bed of the Detroit River adjacent to Grassy Island. The goal of the sampling was to assess the distribution and concentration of chemical constituents in sediment adjacent to Grassy Island, which was operated from 1960 to 1982 as a confined disposal facility to hold dredge spoils. On August 31, 2006, seven samples were collected at four locations in the Detroit River on the north, south, east, and west sides of the island. Metals concentrations in the riverbed sediment tended to be higher on the west side of the island, whereas organic?compound concentrations were generally higher on the east side. Comparison of results from this sampling to concentrations reported in previous studies indicates that the concentrations of inorganic constituents, mainly metals, in the riverbed sediment around Grassy Island fell within the range of concentrations found regionally throughout the Detroit River and in most cases have lower mean and median values than found elsewhere regionally in the Detroit River. Comparison of results from the August 31, 2006, sampling to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk?based sediment?quality guidelines indicates that 18 organic constituents for which an ecological screening level (ESL), and (or) a threshold effect concentration (TEC), and (or) a probable effect concentration (PEC) has been defined exceeded one or more of these guidelines at least once. Further work would be needed to determine whether constituent concentrations in the river sediment are related to constituent runoff from Grassy Island.

Michigan↗
USGS2002

Factors related to well yield in the fractured-bedrock aquifer of New Hampshire

The New Hampshire Bedrock Aquifer Assessment was designed to provide information that can be used by communities, industry, professional consultants, and other interests to evaluate the ground-water development potential of the fractured-bedrock aquifer in the State. The assessment was done at statewide, regional, and well field scales to identify relations that potentially could increase the success in locating high-yield water supplies in the fractured-bedrock aquifer. statewide, data were collected for well construction and yield information, bedrock lithology, surficial geology, lineaments, topography, and various derivatives of these basic data sets. Regionally, geologic, fracture, and lineament data were collected for the Pinardville and Windham quadrangles in New Hampshire. The regional scale of the study examined the degree to which predictive well-yield relations, developed as part of the statewide reconnaissance investigation, could be improved by use of quadrangle-scale geologic mapping. Beginning in 1984, water-well contractors in the State were required to report detailed information on newly constructed wells to the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES). The reports contain basic data on well construction, including six characteristics used in this study?well yield, well depth, well use, method of construction, date drilled, and depth to bedrock (or length of casing). The NHDES has determined accurate georeferenced locations for more than 20,000 wells reported since 1984. The availability of this large data set provided an opportunity for a statistical analysis of bedrock-well yields. Well yields in the database ranged from zero to greater than 500 gallons per minute (gal/min). Multivariate regression was used as the primary statistical method of analysis because it is the most efficient tool for predicting a single variable with many potentially independent variables. The dependent variable that was explored in this study was the natural logarithm (ln) of the reported well yield. One complication with using well yield as a dependent variable is that yield also is a function of demand. An innovative statistical technique that involves the use of instrumental variables was implemented to compensate for the effect of demand on well yield. Results of the multivariate-regression model show that a variety of factors are either positively or negatively related to well yields. Using instrumental variables, well depth is positively related to total well yield. Other factors that were found to be positively related to well yield include (1) distance to the nearest waterbody; (2) size of the drainage area upgradient of a well; (3) well location in swales or valley bottoms in the Massabesic Gneiss Complex and Breakfast Hill Granite; (4) well proximity to lineaments, identified using high-altitude (1:80,000-scale) aerial photography, which are correlated with the primary fracture direction (regional analysis); (5) use of a cable tool rig for well drilling; and (6) wells drilled for commercial or public supply. Factors negatively related to well yields include sites underlain by foliated plutons, sites on steep slopes sites at high elevations, and sites on hilltops. Additionally, seven detailed geologic map units, identified during the detailed geologic mapping of the Pinardville and Windham quadrangles, were found to be positively or negatively related to well yields. Twenty-four geologic map units, depicted on the Bedrock Geologic Map of New Hampshire, also were found to be positively or negatively related to well yields. Maps or geographic information system (GIS) data sets identifying areas of various yield probabilities clearly display model results. Probability criteria developed in this investigation can be used to select areas where other techniques, such as geophysical techniques, can be applied to more closely identify potential drilling sites for high-yielding

Professional Paper↗
USGS2019

Assessing water quality from highway runoff at selected sites in North Carolina with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a cooperative agreement with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to develop a North Carolina-enhanced variation of the national Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) with available North Carolina-specific streamflow and water-quality data and to demonstrate use of the model by documenting selected simulation scenarios. The USGS developed the national SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to provide the tools and techniques necessary for performing stormwater-quality simulations. SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of flows, concentrations, and loads of stormwater constituents from the site of interest (often a highway catchment; nonhighway areas, such as a large impervious area at a shopping center complex, also can be used) and the basin upstream from the stormwater outfall to assess the risk for adverse effects of runoff. SELDM also can be used to simulate the effectiveness of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality concentration reductions by stormwater best management practices (BMPs), which are designed to help mitigate the effects of runoff on receiving water bodies. Some of the statistical inputs needed for the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM were either calculated or augmented using local or regional data from North Carolina. Streamflow statistics used by SELDM were determined for 266 streamgages across North Carolina on the basis of data available through the 2015 water year. Recession ratio statistics used for triangular hydrographs were also developed for 30 streamgages across the State. The NCDOT identified previous research reports on highway-runoff and BMP studies in North Carolina for review of potential data addition to the national FHWA Highway-Runoff Database (HRDB). Following USGS review of these data, a total of 25,087 event mean concentration values and 1,140 storm events for 39 highway-runoff sites and 195 analytes were uploaded to the national HRDB from six North Carolina highway-runoff research reports and a recent USGS bridge deck runoff study. Using data for 27 streamgages in North Carolina, a total of 57 water-quality transport curves were developed for seven constituents for use in simulating water-quality conditions in the upstream basin. Performance data for three BMPs (bioretention, grass strip or swale, and wetland channel) from NCDOT research data were incorporated into the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM for volume-reduction statistics, including the effectiveness of treating four water-quality constituents (total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite) and turbidity. Simulations using the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM are presented for two hypothetical upstream basins in the Piedmont ecoregion and one hypothetical highway site to demonstrate how simulations can be used to provide risk-based information about potential effects of stormwater runoff on downstream water quality and the potential for mitigating those risks by using BMPs. The first group of simulations explores the stochastic variability in dilution factors (the ratio of the highway runoff to the total downstream stormflow) for a hypothetical Piedmont rural creek having drainage areas ranging from 1 to 100 square miles. The second group of simulations examines dilution factors based on variations in precipitation, streamflow, and recession ratios for two hypothetical Piedmont upstream basins (rural and urban) where the drainage area was held constant at 25 square miles. These simulations indicate the sensitivity of results to variations in each of the three variables. The third group of simulations examines the effects of varied concentrations in the upstream basin on water-quality conditions downstream from the highway crossing. Variations in upstream water-quality conditions for three constituents (suspended sediment concentration, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) are based on water-quality transport curves selected from among the 57 curves developed as part of this study to represent low-, medium-, and high-concentration statistics. Simulations completed for this third group also examine the potential effects of grass swale and bioretention BMP treatment on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in highway runoff. The BMP performance data from the NCDOT research reports were applied in this group of simulations. The stochastic mass-balance approach used in SELDM analyses and simulations provides a strong tool for engineers and water-resource managers to use in exploring a wide range of possible hydrologic and water-quality inputs and their effects on downstream water quality. The results of this study can not only aid engineers and managers in planning for potential adverse effects of runoff at site-specific locations, they can also help the USGS and other Federal and State agencies with oversight responsibilities in stormwater-quality issues to continue gathering data on potential water-quality effects in receiving streams.

North Carolina↗
USGS2026

Methods for estimating selected streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Wyoming based on data through water year 2021

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wyoming Water Development Office, developed regional regression equations based on basin characteristics and streamflow statistics for streamgages through water year 2021 (October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021). The regression equations allow estimates of mean annual maximum, mean annual, mean seasonal, and mean monthly streamflows; frequency statistics for the 7-day mean low flows with 2-year and 10-year recurrence intervals, 14- and 30-day mean low flows with 5-year recurrence intervals, and 60- and 1-day mean high flow with 2-year and 5-year recurrence intervals, respectively; and the 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 4-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 50-, 60-, 70-, 75-, 80-, 90-, 95-, 98-, and 99-percent durations for annual streamflows and 0.1-, 0.5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-, 30-, 40-, 50-, 60-, 70-, 75-, 80-, 85-, 90-, 95-, and 99-percent durations for monthly streamflows for most months for ungaged locations in Wyoming that are largely unaltered by diversions or upstream reservoirs. Regression equations were developed for 243 streamflow statistics. Best-subset selection was used to assess explanatory variables for respective streamflow statistics. Exploratory data analyses determined that, of the 81 basin characteristics evaluated as potential explanatory variables, characteristics such as drainage area and precipitation often produced models with the highest adjusted coefficient of determination and lowest mean squared error, as determined in the best-subset selection. To address heteroskedasticity of model residuals, model variables were regionalized using fixed-effects models; the percentages of the streamgage basins in selected ecoregions were defined as interaction terms, which represent the model slope for specific ecoregions. Most models were determined to be statistically significant for probability values less than or equal to 0.1 for one or more regional explanatory variables. The final regional regression equations defined in this report are available for use in the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats web application at https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ .

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dako↗
USGS2007

A coupled remote sensing and simplified surface energy balance approach to estimate actual evapotranspiration from irrigated fields

Accurate crop performance monitoring and production estimation are critical for timely assessment of the food balance of several countries in the world. Since 2001, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring crop performance and relative production using satellite-derived data and simulation models in Africa, Central America, and Afghanistan where ground-based monitoring is limited because of a scarcity of weather stations. The commonly used crop monitoring models are based on a crop water-balance algorithm with inputs from satellite-derived rainfall estimates. These models are useful to monitor rainfed agriculture, but they are ineffective for irrigated areas. This study focused on Afghanistan, where over 80 percent of agricultural production comes from irrigated lands. We developed and implemented a Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model to monitor and assess the performance of irrigated agriculture in Afghanistan using a combination of 1-km thermal data and 250m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, both from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. We estimated seasonal actual evapotranspiration (ETa) over a period of six years (2000-2005) for two major irrigated river basins in Afghanistan, the Kabul and the Helmand, by analyzing up to 19 cloud-free thermal and NDVI images from each year. These seasonal ETa estimates were used as relative indicators of year-to-year production magnitude differences. The temporal water-use pattern of the two irrigated basins was indicative of the cropping patterns specific to each region. Our results were comparable to field reports and to estimates based on watershed-wide crop water-balance model results. For example, both methods found that the 2003 seasonal ETa was the highest of all six years. The method also captured water management scenarios where a unique year-to-year variability was identified in addition to water-use differences between upstream and downstream basins. A major advantage of the energy-balance approach is that it can be used to quantify spatial extent of irrigated fields and their water-use dynamics without reference to source of water as opposed to a water-balance model which requires knowledge of both the magnitude and temporal distribution of rainfall and irrigation applied to fields. ?? 2007 by MDPI.

Sensors↗
USGS2007

A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

A stochastic, stage-based population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four separate regions of Florida. This population model includes annual variability in survival and reproductive rates, demographic stochasticity, effects of changes in warm-water capacity, and catastrophes. Further, the model explicitly accounts for uncertainty in parameter estimates. This model is meant to serve as a flexible tool for use in assessments relevant to management decision making, and was used in the State of Florida's recent biological status review. The parameter estimates and model structure described herein reflect our understanding of manatee demography at the time that this status review was completed. In the Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions, the model predicts that the populations will increase over time until warm-water capacity is reached, at which point growth will taper off. In the Atlantic region, the model predicts a stable or slightly increasing population over the next decade or so, and then a decrease as industrial warm-water capacity is lost. In the Southwest region, the model predicts a decline over time, driven by high annual mortality in the short-term and exacerbated by loss of industrial warm-water winter refuges over the next 40 years. Statewide, the likelihood of a 50% or greater decline in three manatee generations was 12%; the likelihood of a 20% or greater decline in two generations was 56%. These declines are largely driven by the anticipated loss of warm-water capacity, especially in the Atlantic and Southwest regions. The estimates of probability of extinction within 100 years were 11.9% for the Southwest region, 0.6% for the Northwest, 0.04% for the Atlantic, and <0.02% for the Upper St. Johns. The estimated probability that the statewide population will fall below 1000 animals within 100 years was 2.3%. Thus, while the estimated probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

Open-File Report↗