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Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated more than 500 continuous streamgages (streamflow-gaging stations) in Texas. In cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, the USGS evaluated mean annual streamflow data for 38 selected streamgages that were active as of water year 2012. The 38 streamgages have annual mean streamflow data considered natural and unregulated. Collected annual mean streamflow data for a single streamgage ranged from 49 to 97 cumulative years. The nonparametric Kendall’s tau statistical test was used to detect monotonic trends in annual mean streamflow over time. The monotonic trend analysis detected 2 statistically significant upward trends (0.01 one-tail significance), 1 statistically significant downward trend (0.01 one-tail significance level), and 35 instances of no statistically significant trend (0.02 two-tailed significance level). The Theil slope estimate of a regression slope of annual mean streamflow with time was computed for the three stations where trends in streamflow were detected: 2 increasing Theil slopes were measured (+0.40 and +2.72 cubic feet per second per year, respectively), and 1 decreasing Theil slope (–0.24 cubic feet per second per year) was measured. Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

Texas↗

Estimation of baseflow and flooding characteristics for East Canyon Creek, Summit and Morgan Counties, Utah

An improved understanding of hydrologic responses to changing climatic conditions is needed to better inform water management practices. East Canyon Creek, a perennial, snowmelt-dominated stream in the Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah, is subjected to increasing development and demands on water in the Snyderville Basin and adjacent areas. In this study, streamflow and specific conductance measured at three U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on East Canyon Creek were used to estimate daily baseflow for water years 2011–22. Trends in these estimates and correlations with climate data from two Natural Resource Conservation Service snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations within the Snyderville Basin above East Canyon Reservoir, were quantified and reported. Peak annual streamflow also was assessed for flood potential on the study reach of East Canyon Creek. The hydrograph separations showed consistent baseflow indices among all sites, with a larger baseflow component during the fall–spring period (September–April; baseflow indices approximately equal to [≈] 0.751–0.835) and smaller component during the summer period (May–August; baseflow indices ≈ 0.428–0.532). In-stream specific conductance during spring (February–April) was influenced by road salt application, limiting the utility of the hydrograph separation approach. Annual streamflow and climate data were evaluated for trends using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, with inconclusive results. Related tests for trends, the Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests, were used to evaluate data at monthly timesteps and indicated a decreasing trend in total streamflow and baseflow at all streamgages. The rank-based Kendall’s tau test for correlation was used to measure the ordinal association with climatic data at co-located SNOTEL stations. Total streamflow and baseflow were strongly correlated with precipitation and snow-water equivalent. By incorporating a predictive regression model, the nonparametric Theil–Sen line, these correlations could support the development of streamflow forecast models using climate data from SNOTEL stations. Such models would provide water managers with tools to help make proactive decisions, such as reservoir or water reclamation releases and curtailment of withdrawals, in response to regional drought or varying snowpack and spring runoff in a given year.

Utah↗

Small basin annual yield and percentage of snowmelt runoff in North Dakota, 1931–2016

The North Dakota hydrology manual prepared by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, presents methodologies primarily used for developing hydrology for onfarm conservation practices, watershed projects, Resource Conservation and Development project measures, and river basin studies. The manual includes data necessary for determining hydrologic factors and developing a design discharge for a given site and intended purpose. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Natural Resources Conservation Service, developed methods to reproduce and update the annual yield maps for chapter 7 of the North Dakota hydrology manual. Annual yields, in acre-feet per square mile, for the 50- and 80-percent exceedance probabilities and expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines were estimated using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data from 1931 to 2016 for 71 selected streamgages with drainage areas of 505 square miles or less. An application of a modified Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III was used to estimate missing annual streamflow volumes. An alternate expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines was estimated using High Plains Climatic Center precipitation and snowmelt data from 1931 to 2016 for 85 selected sites. The final expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines was estimated using streamflow data instead of precipitation and snowfall depth data. A snowmelt runoff seasonal period of March–May produced better isoline slopes than a November–May runoff seasonal period. Slopes of the expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines were sensitive to amounts of missing record. Suitable isoline slopes appeared when the missing record was set to 50 percent (43 years) and 66 percent (57 years) for the 86-year period of 1931–2016.

North Dakota↗

U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 2011 report of selected wildlife diseases

The National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) was founded in 1975 to provide technical assistance in identifying, controlling, and preventing wildlife losses from diseases, conduct research to understand the impact of diseases on wildlife populations, and devise methods to more effectively manage these disease threats. The impetus behind the creation of the NWHC was, in part, the catastrophic loss of tens of thousands of waterfowl as a result of an outbreak of duck plague at the Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge in South Dakota during January 1973. In 1996, the NWHC, along with other Department of Interior research functions, was transferred from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), where we remain one of many entities that provide the independent science that forms the bases of the sound management of the Nation’s natural resources. Our mission is to provide national leadership to safeguard wildlife and ecosystem health through dynamic partnerships and exceptional science. The main campus of the NWHC is located in Madison, Wis., where we maintain biological safety level 3 (BSL–3) diagnostic and research facilities purposefully designed for work with wildlife species. The NWHC provides research and technical assistance on wildlife health issues to State, Federal, and international agencies. In addition, since 1992 we have maintained a field station in Hawaii, the Honolulu Field Station, which focuses on marine and terrestrial natural resources throughout the Pacific region. The NWHC conducts diagnostic investigations of unusual wildlife morbidity and mortality events nationwide to detect the presence of wildlife pathogens and determine the cause of death. This is also an important activity for detecting new, emerging and resurging diseases. The NWHC provides this crucial information on the presence of wildlife diseases to wildlife managers to support sound management decisions. The data and information generated also allows for further indepth analyses for determining the biological and ecological significance of disease events, detecting disease trends over time and space, as well as detecting any significant changes to how diseases manifest in the field. Moreover, this information allows us to gain insight into the significance of future wildlife disease events. The purpose of this report is to provide a sample of NWHC data that are available from our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS). These data are presented in summary format with minimal statistical analysis and interpretation. The goal is to share these data with wildlife managers and other stakeholders, promote the use of NHWC data, and encourage the sharing of wildlife disease data to improve temporal and geographic surveillance coverage. Continued national surveillance for wildlife diseases is essential for providing early detection and warning of events that have the potential to result in harm to human health, economic losses, declines in wildlife populations, and subsequent ecological disturbances. Increased collaboration, coordination, and sharing of surveillance data will enhance this Nation’s ability to detect and respond to wildlife disease threats.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater quality and simulation of sources of water to wells in the Marsh Creek valley at the U.S. Geological Survey Northern Appalachian Research Laboratory, Tioga County, Pennsylvania

This report provides a November 2010 snapshot of groundwater quality and an analysis of the sources of water to wells at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Northern Appalachian Research Laboratory (NARL) near Wellsboro, Pennsylvania. The laboratory, which conducts fisheries research, currently (2011) withdraws 1,000 gallons per minute of high-quality groundwater from three wells completed in the glacial sand and gravel aquifer beneath the Marsh Creek valley; a fourth well that taps the same aquifer provides the potable supply for the facility. The study was conducted to document the source areas and quality of the water supply for this Department of Interior facility, which is surrounded by the ongoing development of natural gas from the Marcellus Shale. Groundwater samples were collected from the four wells used by the NARL and from two nearby domestic-supply wells. The domestic-supply wells withdraw groundwater from bedrock of the Catskill Formation. Samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace metals, radiochemicals, dissolved gases, and stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in water and carbon in dissolved carbonate to document groundwater quality. Organic constituents (other than hydrocarbon gases) associated with hydraulic fracturing and other human activities were not analyzed as part of this assessment. Results show low concentrations of all constituents. Only radon, which ranged from 980 to 1,310 picocuries per liter, was somewhat elevated. These findings are consistent with the pristine nature of the aquifer in the Marsh Creek valley, which is the reason the laboratory was sited at this location. The sources of water and areas contributing recharge to wells were identified by the use of a previously documented MODFLOW groundwater-flow model for the following conditions: (1) withdrawals of 1,000 to 3,000 gallons per minute from the NARL wells, (2) average or dry hydrologic conditions, and (3) withdrawals of 1,000 gallons per minute from a new well 3,500 feet to the southwest that was drilled to provide water for Marcellus gas-well operations. Results of simulations indicate that during average hydrologic conditions, infiltration from Straight Run, a tributary to Marsh Creek, provides nearly all the water to the NARL wells. During dry conditions, the areas contributing recharge expand such that Asaph Run contributes about half of the water to the NARL wells when withdrawals are 1,000 or 2,000 gallons per minute. The addition of a simulated withdrawal of 1,000 gallons per minute from the nearby new well does not substantially affect the sources of water captured by the NARL wells. These results are subject to some limitations. The water-quality samples represent a snapshot of groundwater chemistry for only one hydrologic condition; the concentrations of some constituents may change temporally. In addition, samples were collected and analyzed for hydrocarbon gases, but not organic constituents associated with hydraulic fracturing; additional sampling for these constituents would provide a more complete water-quality baseline. The sources contributing water to the NARL wells and the new well were simulated by use of a simplified one-layer model of the glacial sand and gravel aquifer for steady-state conditions that in reality are never achieved. Steady-state simulations of dry hydrologic conditions show that it is possible for the NARL wells to capture water from Asaph Run; however, maps of simulated groundwater time-of-travel indicate that a dry period of unusually long duration would be required. A better analysis could be done by recalibrating the groundwater-flow model with a finite-difference grid having multiple layers, cells smaller than the 200-foot by 200-foot cells used in this study, and transient stress periods.

Pennsylvania↗

Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning

The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and population-specific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation ‘rules of thumb’ for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges.

Scientific Reports↗

Hydrogeologic characterization of the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley Groundwater Basins, Riverside County, California

The relation between the groundwater and the amount of natural recharge to the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins is not well understood. During the 20th century, the reliance on groundwater near Anza, California, used for agricultural, domestic, and municipal reasons has increased, and there is the potential for changes in groundwater availability related to climate change. Several types of existing data were evaluated, and new data were collected for this study, with the goal of characterizing the region’s hydrogeology. The study’s scope included constructing a geologic framework model to show where the groundwater-bearing units are present and their relation to each other, estimating the major components of the groundwater budget, and understanding local short-term and regional long-term groundwater flow and how that has changed since the early 1900s. Two electrical resistivity tomography surveys were done in the Durasno Valley about 2,150 feet apart to identify the thickness of the alluvium, its horizontal extent, and the depth-to-basement along two profiles perpendicular to Cahuilla Creek. The subsurface sediments were mostly horizontally layered and the transitional boundary between the alluvium and basement was thinner and shallower along the upgradient profile where the depth-to-basement was about 70 feet below land surface; the depth-to-basement at the downgradient profile was more than about 140 feet below land surface. The results from the surveys were used to place four monitoring wells at two sites along the survey profiles. Artesian flow from the deepest well at the downgradient site indicated that the decomposed and competent basement likely contributed some groundwater to the overlying alluvium, laterally, from below, or both. A digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed using EarthVision software to represent the subsurface geometry of the alluvium, decomposed basement, and competent basement. Maps and cross sections of the modeled thicknesses of the alluvium and decomposed basement, and the modeled elevation of the top of the competent basement, were made to show the subsurface geometry of vertical faults, selected wells, and the groundwater-bearing units. Because natural recharge is related to the variable cycles of precipitation, estimates are difficult to quantify. Recharge and runoff have extreme interannual variability in the study area; recharge and runoff can be sporadic, and a substantive amount may not occur in some years. Estimates of recharge from a previous study and the regional-scale Basin Characterization Model for California for four different periods ranged from 3,800 acre-feet/year for 1897–1947 to 5,900 acre-feet/year for 1971–2000. Potential recharge from the disposal of domestic septic systems may have been as much as 500 acre-feet in 2020. It was estimated that between about 400 and 2,400 acre-feet/year of groundwater is lost through evapotranspiration by vegetation and evaporation from open water bodies, but the main source of discharge is through pumpage, mainly used for agriculture from the alluvium in the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins. The estimated total pumpage for 1991–2021 ranged from about 1,140 acre-feet in 2019 to about 3,450 acre-feet in 1994. When summed, the cumulative amount of estimated pumpage between 1991 and 2021 was about 81,400 acre-feet. The general direction of groundwater flow is from the northeast along the San Jacinto fault zone at the headwaters of Cahuilla and Hamilton Creeks, to the surface-water outlets at the west and southeast parts of the study area. Groundwater-level data from the 1950s and earlier indicate that there was a natural groundwater divide between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins, but the changing magnitude and extent of the groundwater depressions caused by pumping since about 1950 indicate that the location of the natural groundwater boundary between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins has migrated over time. Flow from the upper to the lower parts of the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin roughly follows the course of Cahuilla Creek through the narrow Durasno Valley where an estimated volume of flow in April 2019 was about 10–150 acre-feet/year. Short-term trends in groundwater levels, particularly in wells where groundwater is shallow and in the basement unit, show how some areas respond quickly to recharge and discharge. Wells located further to the east within the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin in the alluvium show much less of a response to recharge events; areas of sustained pumpage from the alluvium, primarily for agriculture, show long-term declines in groundwater levels and generally do not show the effects of storm events or recent runoff. Groundwater levels in wells that are farthest from where most of the recharge occurs and where pumping has been the greatest, had some of the largest long-term groundwater-level declines at a rate of about 0.8 foot/year between 1971 and 2021.

California↗

Estimating the Effects of Conversion of Agricultural Land to Urban Land on Deep Percolation of Irrigation Water in the Grand Valley, Western Colorado

The conversion of agricultural land to urban residential land is associated with rapid population growth in the Grand Valley of western Colorado. Information regarding the effects of this land-use conversion on deep percolation, irrigation-water application, and associated salt loading to the Colorado River is needed to support water-resource planning and conservation efforts. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) assessed deep percolation and estimated salt loading derived from irrigated agricultural lands in the Grand Valley in a 1985 to 2002 monitoring and evaluation study (NRCS M&E). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Salinity Control Forum and the Mesa Conservation District, quantified the current (2005-2006) deep percolation and irrigation-water application characteristics of 1/4-acre residential lots and 5-acre estates, urban parks, and urban orchard grass fields in the Grand Valley, and compared the results to NRCS M&E results from alfalfa-crop sites. In addition, pond seepage from three irrigation-water holding ponds was estimated. Salt loading was estimated for the urban study results and the NRCS M&E results by using standard salt-loading factors. A daily soil-moisture balance calculation technique was used at all urban study irrigated sites. Deep percolation was defined as any water infiltrating below the top 12 inches of soil. Deep percolation occurred when the soil-moisture balance in the first 12 inches of soil exceeded the field capacity for the soil type at each site. Results were reported separately for urban study bluegrass-only sites and for all-vegetation type (bluegrass, native plants, and orchard grass) sites. Deep percolation and irrigation-water application also were estimated for a complete irrigation season at three subdivisions by using mean site data from each subdivision. It was estimated that for the three subdivisions, 37 percent of the developed acreage was irrigated (the balance being impermeable surfaces).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater resources of the Harney Basin, southeastern Oregon

Groundwater development has increased substantially in southeastern Oregon’s Harney Basin since 2010, mainly for the purpose of large-scale irrigation. Concurrently, some areas of the basin experienced groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet, and some shallow wells have gone dry. The Oregon Water Resources Department has limited new groundwater development in the basin until an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system is available. This report describes the results of a hydrologic investigation undertaken to provide that understanding. The investigation encompasses the groundwater hydrology of the entire 5,240-square-mile Harney Basin. Most of the precipitation in the Harney Basin falls in the higher-elevation areas of the Blue Mountains and Steens Mountain. Although considerable groundwater recharge occurs in these upland areas, most (83 percent) re-emerges as streams and springs in the uplands. Groundwater recharge in the lowlands is provided through infiltration of surface water flowing onto the lowlands from rivers and streams leaving the uplands and as groundwater flow from the surrounding upland rocks. Water-balance calculations indicate that the rate of groundwater recharge to the Harney Basin lowlands (where most groundwater is withdrawn) averages 173,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). Groundwater in the Harney Basin lowlands mainly discharges through evapotranspiration from groundwater-irrigated (supplied from wells) crops or from natural vegetation drawing groundwater from the shallow water table and capillary fringe. Groundwater discharge in the lowlands is estimated to be about 283,000 acre-ft/yr, which exceeds the estimated groundwater recharge to the lowlands by about 110,000 acre-ft/yr. This imbalance results in removal of groundwater from storage in the aquifer system and is evidenced by the large declines observed in groundwater levels in the areas of greatest groundwater pumpage. To a large degree, the location and depth of pumpage dictate the timing and distribution of the effects of groundwater use in the Harney Basin. Pumpage is commonly greatest in the areas where higher-permeability geologic units allow for higher well yields. However, many of these higher-permeability units are bounded by lower-permeability units that cannot supply groundwater at a sufficient rate to replenish the areas of greatest pumpage, resulting in groundwater-level declines. Three Harney Basin areas with a combined area exceeding 140 square miles have experienced groundwater-level declines exceeding 40 feet compared to pre-development conditions: near the Weaver Spring/Dog Mountain area, in the northeastern floodplains along Highway 20, and near Crane. Areas of more modest groundwater-level decline (about 10 feet) were identified in the Virginia Valley area and the Silver Creek floodplain north of Riley. Smaller localized areas of groundwater-level depression have also formed around individual wells or groups of wells throughout the Harney Basin lowlands. Most groundwater being pumped from the Harney Basin lowlands, including all three areas experiencing large groundwater-level declines, was recharged more than 12,000 years ago, near the end of the last glacial period when the climate in the basin was cooler and wetter than today. Geochemical evidence indicates that modern recharge generally circulates to a depth no greater than 100 feet below the floodplains of major rivers and streams in the lowlands. Away from the major river and stream corridors, pre-modern water commonly is found at the water table. Recharge to groundwater and recovery of groundwater levels in the most heavily pumped areas in the Harney Basin lowlands are restricted by the limited spatial extent and depth of modern recharge in the Harney Basin lowlands and the relatively fine-grained deposits underlying most of the lowland areas.

Oregon↗

Water Use in Arkansas, 2005

The water-use program in Arkansas is a cooperative effort between the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey to inventory water use. During 2005, the amount of water withdrawn from ground- and surface-water sources in Arkansas was estimated to be 11,455 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Of this amount, about 7,510 Mgal/d (66 percent) was from ground-water and about 3,946 Mgal/d (34 percent) was from surface-water sources. Approximately 93 percent of the population (2.6 million people) in Arkansas was served by public supply systems during 2005. These systems withdrew approximately 404 Mgal/d. Most of the water, 66 percent, was from surface-water sources. The statewide average for per-capita residential use from public supply systems was 157 gallons per day and increased about 35 percent between 1965 and 2005. The largest use of water was for irrigation (8,265 Mgal/d), which accounted for 92 percent (6,942 Mgal/d) of the ground water withdrawn in Arkansas and 72 percent of the total withdrawals (both ground water and surface water). The next largest use category is thermoelectric generation (1,997 Mgal/d), followed by public supply (404 Mgal/d) and duck (hunting) clubs (269 Mgal/d). The withdrawal categories of domestic, commercial, industrial, mining, livestock, and aquaculture each withdrew less than 260 Mgal/d.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and height of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Minnesota↗

Effects of a crude-oil recovery remediation system operated 1999–2003 on groundwater plumes and unsaturated-zone vapor concentrations at a crude-oil spill site near Bemidji, Minnesota

A crude-oil spill occurred in 1979 when a pipeline burst near Bemidji, Minnesota. More than 70 percent of the 1.7 million liters of spilled crude oil was removed shortly thereafter. In response to a requirement by the State regulatory agency to remove the remaining crude to a sheen in all wells, in 1998, the pipeline company installed a dual-pump recovery system at the site. This additional remediation from 1999 to 2003 resulted in removal of about 115,000 liters of crude oil, representing between 36 and 41 percent of the volume of oil (281,000–317,000 liters) estimated to be present in 1998. Effects of the 1999–2003 remediation on groundwater plumes and unsaturated-zone vapor concentrations were evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey using several methods including measurements of oil thicknesses in wells; field water-quality properties of dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, temperature, and pH in groundwater; and vapor concentrations of methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and oxygen in the unsaturated zone. Although the recovery system decreased oil thicknesses near the remediation wells, average oil thicknesses measured in all wells at the site were not reduced substantially. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance measurements indicate that a secondary plume was created during the remediation, caused by the disposal of pumped water from the remediation wells in an upgradient infiltration gallery. This plume expanded rapidly immediately after the start of the remediation in 1999, resulting in expansion of the anoxic zone of groundwater upgradient and beneath the existing natural attenuation plume. Beginning in 2000–1, for example, specific conductance concentrations noticeably increased in many wells at the north oil pool from about 400 to more than 700 microsiemens per centimeter. The rapid expansion of the anoxic and elevated specific conductance plume indicates that the remediation contributed substantial amounts of biodegradable dissolved organic carbon to groundwater through the infiltration gallery. The trends in vapor data collected before, during, and after the remediation generally support the research hypothesis that crude-oil removal would have an insignificant effect on vapor concentrations in the unsaturated zone. Although there were some small changes in the concentration of methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and oxygen in the unsaturated zone, these changes were not coincident with the beginning or cessation of the remediation and are therefore thought to be the result of other factors affecting biodegradation rates. A decrease in methane concentrations in one representative well, for example, is thought to be the result of reduced rates of biodegradation and methane production from the increasingly more weathered crude oil. Oil-phase recovery at this site was determined to be challenging and resulted in considerable volumes of mobile and entrapped oil remaining in the subsurface despite remediation efforts.

Minnesota↗

Water quality of groundwater and stream base flow in the Marcellus Shale Gas Field of the Monongahela River Basin, West Virginia, 2011-12

The Marcellus Shale gas field underlies portions of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Maryland, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology led to extensive development of gas from the Marcellus Shale beginning about 2007. The need to identify and monitor changes in water-quality conditions related to development of the Marcellus Shale gas field prompted the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Water and Waste Management, to document water quality for comparison with water quality in samples collected at a future date. The identification of change in water-quality conditions over time is more difficult if baseline water-quality conditions have not been documented. U.S. Geological Survey personnel sampled groundwater and surface water in West Virginia’s Monongahela River Basin during 2011–12. A groundwater survey, in which 39 wells and 2 springs were sampled, was conducted during June through September 2011. A base-flow survey was conducted during July through October 2012; 50 stream sites were sampled under base-flow conditions in this survey. Because additives to hydraulic fracturing fluids are variable and decrease in flowback water over a relatively short time, water-quality analyses for this study focused on documenting the water-quality characteristics typical of water from shallow aquifers; water derived from contact with the Marcellus Shale (flowback from hydraulic fracturing or formation water); and water with constituents from conventional oil and gas development, sewage effluent, and coal-mine drainage. All samples were analyzed for field properties (water temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity), major ions, trace elements, naturally occurring radioactive materials, and stable isotopes. In addition to documenting baseline water-quality conditions for an area of shale-gas development, these data were examined for patterns in water quality. Groundwater and base-flow survey data were compared to historical data from the Monongahela River Basin in West Virginia. Additionally, groundwater- and base-flow survey samples were grouped by Marcellus Shale gas production in the subbasin in which that sampling site was located. The comparisons of data collected as part of this study with historical data identified few differences. No significant difference was found in a comparison of groundwater survey data and historical data. Base-flow survey samples differed significantly from historical data for pH, chloride, and strontium, all of which had higher concentrations in the base-flow survey samples. Differences in pH are likely related to changes in mining regulation beginning in 1977. Concentrations of chloride and strontium elevated above background concentrations may be related to saline groundwater; saline water is within 300 feet of the land surface in parts of the study area. In the comparison of base-flow survey samples grouped by shale-gas-production setting, significant differences were found for fluoride and barium. Concentrations of fluoride and barium were higher in stream subbasins with active Marcellus Shale production than in subbasins not near active Marcellus Shale production. Elevated fluoride and barium are associated with deep brines. Generally, naturally occurring radioactive materials were not found in elevated concentrations in either groundwater or base-flow samples. Only 3 samples, 2 from the groundwater survey and one from the base-flow survey, exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level for radium isotopes of 5.0 picocurie per liter for either a single isotope or a combined value of radium-226 and radium-228. Stable isotope composition indicates broad similarity among surface water, shallow groundwater, and precipitation in the region. Neither shallow groundwater nor surface water showed a marked similarity with the deep brines associated with shale gas. In most of the groundwater survey samples, 38 of 41 samples, dissolved gas profiles were similar to those previously found in samples from shallow, domestic wells in the region. This study provides a baseline of water-quality conditions in the Monongahela River Basin in West Virginia during the early phases of development of the Marcellus Shale gas field. Although not all inclusive, the results of this study provide a set of reliable water-quality data against which future data sets can be compared and the effects of shale-gas development may be determined.

West Virginia↗

The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: Lessons and conclusions

One of the greatest earthquakes of all time struck south-central Alaska on March 27, 1964. Strong motion lasted longer than for most recorded earthquakes, and more land surface was dislocated, vertically and horizontally, than by any known previous temblor. Never before were so many effects on earth processes and on the works of man available for study by scientists and engineers over so great an area. The seismic vibrations, which directly or indirectly caused most of the damage, were but surface manifestations of a great geologic event-the dislocation of a huge segment of the crust along a deeply buried fault whose nature and even exact location are still subjects for speculation. Not only was the land surface tilted by the great tectonic event beneath it, with resultant seismic sea waves that traversed the entire Pacific, but an enormous mass of land and sea floor moved several tens of feet horizontally toward the Gulf of Alaska. Downslope mass movements of rock, earth, and snow were initiated. Subaqueous slides along lake shores and seacoasts, near-horizontal movements of mobilized soil (“landspreading”), and giant translatory slides in sensitive clay did the most damage and provided the most new knowledge as to the origin, mechanics, and possible means of control or avoidance of such movements. The slopes of most of the deltas that slid in 1964, and that produced destructive local waves, are still as steep or steeper than they were before the earthquake and hence would be unstable or metastable in the event of another great earthquake. Rockslide avalanches provided new evidence that such masses may travel on cushions of compressed air, but a widely held theory that glaciers surge after an earthquake has not been substantiated. Innumerable ground fissures, many of them marked by copious emissions of water, caused much damage in towns and along transportation routes. Vibration also consolidated loose granular materials. In some coastal areas, local subsidence was superimposed on regional tectonic subsidence to heighten the flooding damage. Ground and surface waters were measurably affected by the earthquake, not only in Alaska but throughout the world. Expectably, local geologic conditions largely controlled the extent of structural damage, whether caused directly by seismic vibrations or by secondary effects such as those just described. Intensity was greatest in areas underlain by thick saturated unconsolidated deposits, least on indurated bedrock or permanently frozen ground, and intermediate on coarse well-drained gravel, on morainal deposits, or on moderately indurated sedimentary rocks. Local and even regional geology also controlled the distribution and extent of the earthquake's effects on hydrologic systems. In the conterminous United States, for example, seiches in wells and bodies of surface water were controlled by geologic structures of regional dimension. Devastating as the earthquake was, it had many long-term beneficial effects. Many of these were socioeconomic or engineering in nature; others were of scientific value. Much new and corroborative basic geologic and hydrologic information was accumulated in the course of the earthquake studies, and many new or improved investigative techniques were developed. Chief among these, perhaps, were the recognition that lakes can be used as giant tiltmeters, the refinement of methods for measuring land-level changes by observing displacements of barnacles and other sessile organisms, and the relating of hydrology to seismology by worldwide study of hydroseisms in surface-water bodies and in wells. The geologic and hydrologic lessons learned from studies of the Alaska earthquake also lead directly to better definition of the research needed to further our understanding of earthquakes and of how to avoid or lessen the effects of future ones. Research is needed on the origins and mechanisms of earthquakes, on crustal structure, and on the generation of tsunamis and local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

Alaska↗

Characterization of salinity and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2010

Salinity and selenium are naturally occurring and perva-sive in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado, includ-ing the watershed of Montrose Arroyo. Although some of the salinity and selenium loading in the Montrose Arroyo study area is from natural sources, additional loading has resulted from the introduction of intensive irrigation in the water-shed. With increasing land-use change and the conversion from irrigated agricultural to urban land, land managers and stakeholders need information about the long-term effects of land-use change on salinity and selenium loading. In response to the need to advance salinity and selenium science, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, and Colorado River Water Conservation District, developed a study to characterize salinity and selenium loading and how salinity and selenium sources may relate to land-use change in Montrose Arroyo. This report characterizes changes in salinity and selenium loading to Montrose Arroyo from March 1992 to February 2010 and the magnitude of land-use change between unirrigated desert, irrigated agricultural, and urban land-use/land-cover types, and discusses how the respective loads may relate to land-use change. Montrose Arroyo is an approximately 8-square-mile watershed in Montrose County in western Colorado. Salinity and selenium were studied in Montrose Arroyo in a 2001 study as part of a salinity- and selenium-control lateral project. The robust nature of the historical dataset indicated that Montrose Arroyo was a prime watershed for a follow-up study. Two sites from the 2001 study were used to monitor salinity and selenium loads in Montrose Arroyo in the follow-up study. Over the period of 2 water years and respective irrigation seasons (2008-2010), 27 water-quality samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made at the historical sites MA2 and MA4. Salinity and selenium concen-trations, loads, and streamflow were compared between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. No significant differences in streamflow, salinity (concen-tration and load), or selenium (concentration and load) were found at MA4 between the pre-lateral project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. The statistical analysis indicated no significant dif-ferences in streamflow or salinity (both concentration and load) between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2; however, selenium concentrations and loads were significantly greater between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2. Land-use change between MA4 and MA2 may have contributed to the determined differences in selenium values, but the specific mechanisms causing the increases between periods are unknown. The size of the urbanized area in Montrose Arroyo was quantified for 1993, 2002, and 2009 by using a geographic information system (GIS) with imagery from the specified years. The greatest change in land use from 1993 to 2009 was the increase of urban land due to conversion from irrigated agricultural land. The conversion of previously unirrigated desert to urban land or irrigated agriculture could become more common if urbanization and development expands into the eastern part of the watershed because a majority of the un-urbanized land in eastern Montrose Arroyo is unirrigated desert. By applying GIS to the City of Montrose 2008 com-prehensive growth plan, it was estimated that approximately 786 acres of previously irrigated agricultural land will be converted to urban land and 689 acres of unirrigated desert will be converted to urban land under the plan scenario. New development on previously unirrigated land in shale areas would likely increase the potential for mobilization of sele-nium and salinity from new sources to Montrose Arroyo and the Lower Gunnison River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrostratigraphic Framework of the Raton, Vermejo, and Trinidad Aquifers in the Raton Basin, Las Animas County, Colorado

Exploration for and production of coalbed methane has increased substantially in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States since the 1990s. During 1999-2004, annual production of natural gas (coalbed methane) from the Raton Basin in Las Animas County, Colorado, increased from 28,129,515 to 80,224,130 thousand cubic feet, and the annual volume of ground water coproduced by coalbed methane wells increased from about 949 million gallons to about 2,879 million gallons. Better definition of the hydrostratigraphic framework of the Raton, Vermejo, and Trinidad aquifers in the Raton Basin of southern Colorado is needed to evaluate the long-term effects of coalbed methane development on the availability and sustainability of ground-water resources. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began a study to evaluate the hydrogeology of the Raton Basin in Huerfano and Las Animas Counties, Colorado. Geostatistical methods were used to map the altitude of and depths to the bottoms and tops (structure) and the apparent thicknesses of the Trinidad Sandstone, the Vermejo Formation, and the Raton Formation in Las Animas County, based on completion reports and drillers' logs from about 1,400 coalbed methane wells in the Raton Basin. There was not enough subsurface control to map the structural surfaces and apparent thicknesses of the aquifers in Huerfano County. Geostatistical methods also were used to map the regional water table in the northern part of Las Animas County, based on reported depth to water from completion reports of water-supply wells. Although these maps were developed to better define the hydrostratigraphic framework, they also can be used to determine the contributing aquifer(s) of existing water wells and to estimate drilling depths of proposed water wells. These maps of the hydrostratigraphic framework could be improved with the addition of measured sections and mapping of geologic contacts at outcrops along the eastern and western margins of the Raton Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved selenium load and concentration in the Gunnison and Colorado Rivers near Grand Junction, Colorado, water years 1986--2008

As a result of elevated selenium concentrations, many western Colorado rivers and streams are on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2010 Colorado 303(d) list, including the main stem of the Colorado River from the Gunnison River confluence to the Utah border. Selenium is a trace metal that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains and can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other adverse impacts in birds and fish, including several threatened and endangered fish species. Salinity in the upper Colorado River has been the focus of source-control efforts for many years. Although salinity loads and concentrations have been previously characterized at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations at the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo., and at the Colorado River near the Colorado-Utah State line, trends in selenium load and concentration at these two stations have not been studied. The USGS, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Colorado River Water Conservation District, evaluated dissolved selenium (herein referred to as "selenium") load and concentration trends at these two sites to inform decision makers on the status and trends of selenium. This report presents results of the evaluation of trends in selenium load and concentration for two USGS streamflow-gaging stations: the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colo. ("Gunnison River site"), USGS site 09152500, and the Colorado River near Colorado-Utah State line ("Colorado River site"), USGS site 09163500. Flow-adjusted selenium loads were estimated for the beginning water year (WY) of the study, 1986, and the ending WY of the study, 2008. The difference between flow-adjusted selenium loads for WY 1986 and WY 2008 was selected as the method of analysis because flow adjustment removes the natural variations in load caused by changes in mean-daily streamflow, emphasizing human-caused changes in selenium load and concentration. Overall changes in human-caused effects in selenium loads and concentrations during the period of study are of primary interest to the cooperators. Selenium loads for each of the 2 water years were calculated by using normalized mean-daily streamflow, measured selenium concentration, standard linear regression techniques, and data previously collected at the two study sites. Mean-daily streamflow was normalized for each site by averaging the daily streamflow for each day of the year over the 23-year period of record. Thus, for the beginning and ending water years, estimations could be made of loads that would have occurred without the effect of year-to-year streamflow variation. The loads thus calculated are illustrative of the change in loads between water years 1986 and 2008, and are not the actual loads that occurred in those 2 water years. The estimated 50th and 85th percentile selenium concentrations associated with the selenium loads were also calculated for WY 1986 and WY 2008 at each site. Time-trends in selenium concentration at the two sites were charted by using regression techniques for partial residuals for the entire study period (WY 1986 through WY 2008). Annual selenium load for the Gunnison River site was estimated to be 23,196 pounds for WY 1986 and 16,560 pounds for WY 2008, a 28.6 percent decrease. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 1986 annual load were 22,360 and 24,032 pounds. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 2008 annual load were 15,724 and 17,396 pounds. Estimated 50th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 6.41 to 4.57 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008, whereas estimated 85th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 7.21 to 5.13 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008. Annual selenium load for the Colorado River site was estimated to be 56,587 pounds for WY 1986 and 34,344 pounds for WY 2008, a 39.3 percent decrease. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 1986 annual load were 53,785 and 59,390 pounds. Lower and upper 95-percent confidence levels for WY 2008 annual load were 31,542 and 37,147 pounds. Estimated 50th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 6.44 to 3.86 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008, whereas estimated 85th percentile daily selenium concentrations decreased from 7.94 to 4.72 micrograms/liter from WY 1986 to WY 2008.

Colorado↗

Morphodynamic evolution following sediment release from the world’s largest dam removal

Sediment pulses can cause widespread, complex changes to rivers and coastal regions. Quantifying landscape response to sediment-supply changes is a long-standing problem in geomorphology, but the unanticipated nature of most sediment pulses rarely allows for detailed measurement of associated landscape processes and evolution. The intentional removal of two large dams on the Elwha River (Washington, USA) exposed ~30 Mt of impounded sediment to fluvial erosion, presenting a unique opportunity to quantify source-to-sink river and coastal responses to a massive sediment-source perturbation. Here we evaluate geomorphic evolution during and after the sediment pulse, presenting a 5-year sediment budget and morphodynamic analysis of the Elwha River and its delta. Approximately 65% of the sediment was eroded, of which only ~10% was deposited in the fluvial system. This restored fluvial supply of sand, gravel, and wood substantially changed the channel morphology. The remaining ~90% of the released sediment was transported to the coast, causing ~60 ha of delta growth. Although metrics of geomorphic change did not follow simple time-coherent paths, many signals peaked 1–2 years after the start of dam removal, indicating combined impulse and step-change disturbance responses.

Washington↗