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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Estimating global natural wetland methane emissions using process modelling: spatio-temporal patterns and contributions to atmospheric methane fluctuations

Aim The fluctuations of atmospheric methane ( CH 4 ) that have occurred in recent decades are not fully understood, particularly with regard to the contribution from wetlands. The application of spatially explicit parameters has been suggested as an effective method for reducing uncertainties in bottom-up approaches to wetland CH 4 emissions, but has not been included in recent studies. Our goal was to estimate spatio-temporal patterns of global wetland CH 4 emissions using a process model and then to identify the contribution of wetland emissions to atmospheric CH 4 fluctuations. Location Global. Methods A process-based model integrated with full descriptions of methanogenesis (TRIPLEX-GHG) was used to simulate global wetland CH 4 emissions. Results Global annual wetland CH 4 emissions ranged from 209 to 245 Tg CH 4 year −1 between 1901 and 2012, with peaks occurring in 1991 and 2012. There is a decreasing trend between 1990 and 2010 with a rate of approximately 0.48 Tg CH 4 year −1 , which was largely caused by emissions from tropical wetlands showing a decreasing trend of 0.44 Tg CH 4 year −1 since the 1970s. Emissions from tropical, temperate and high-latitude wetlands comprised 59, 26 and 15% of global emissions, respectively. Main conclusion Global wetland CH 4 emissions, the interannual variability of which was primary controlled by tropical wetlands, partially drive the atmospheric CH 4 burden. The stable to decreasing trend in wetland CH 4 emissions, a result of a balance of emissions from tropical and extratropical wetlands, was a particular factor in slowing the atmospheric CH 4 growth rate during the 1990s. The rapid decrease in tropical wetland CH 4 emissions that began in 2000 was supposed to offset the increase in anthropogenic emissions and resulted in a relatively stable level of atmospheric CH 4 from 2000 to 2006. Increasing wetland CH 4 emissions, particularly after 2010, should be an important contributor to the growth in atmospheric CH 4 seen since 2007.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2017

On extracting sediment transport information from measurements of luminescence in river sediment

Accurately quantifying sediment transport rates in rivers remains an important goal for geomorphologists, hydraulic engineers, and environmental scientists. However, current techniques for measuring long-time scale (102–106 years) transport rates are laborious, and formulae to predict transport are notoriously inaccurate. Here we attempt to estimate sediment transport rates by using luminescence, a property of common sedimentary minerals that is used by the geoscience community for geochronology. This method is advantageous because of the ease of measurement on ubiquitous quartz and feldspar sand. We develop a model from first principles by using conservation of energy and sediment mass to explain the downstream pattern of luminescence in river channel sediment. We show that the model can accurately reproduce the luminescence observed in previously published field measurements from two rivers with very different sediment transport styles. The model demonstrates that the downstream pattern of river sand luminescence should show exponential-like decay in the headwaters which asymptotes to a constant value with further downstream distance. The parameters from the model can then be used to estimate the time-averaged virtual velocity, characteristic transport lengthscale, storage time scale, and floodplain exchange rate of fine sand-sized sediment in a fluvial system. The sediment transport values predicted from the luminescence method show a broader range than those reported in the literature, but the results are nonetheless encouraging and suggest that luminescence demonstrates potential as a sediment transport indicator. However, caution is warranted when applying the model as the complex nature of sediment transport can sometimes invalidate underlying simplifications.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2006

Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis).

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2009

The influence of use-related, environmental, and managerial factors on soil loss from recreational trails

Recreational uses of unsurfaced trails inevitably result in their degradation, with the type and extent of resource impact influenced by factors such as soil texture, topography, climate, trail design and maintenance, and type and amount of use. Of particular concern, the loss of soil through erosion is generally considered a significant and irreversible form of trail impact. This research investigated the influence of several use-related, environmental, and managerial factors on soil loss on recreational trails and roads at Big South Fork National River and Recreation Area, a unit of the U.S. National Park Service. Regression modeling revealed that trail position, trail slope alignment angle, grade, water drainage, and type of use are significant determinants of soil loss. The introduction of individual and groups of variables into a series of regression models provides improved understanding and insights regarding the relative influence of these variables, informing the selection of more effective trail management actions. Study results suggest that trail erosion can be minimized by avoiding “fall-line” alignments, steep grades, and valley-bottom alignments near streams, installing and maintaining adequate densities of tread drainage features, applying gravel to harden treads, and reducing horse and all-terrain vehicle use or restricting them to more resistant routes. This research also sought to develop a more efficient Variable Cross-Sectional Area method for assessing soil loss on trails. This method permitted incorporation of CSA measures in a representative sampling scheme applied to a large (24%) sample of the park's 526 km trail system. The variety of soil loss measures derived from the Variable CSA method, including extrapolated trail-wide soil loss estimates, permit an objective quantification of soil erosion on recreational trails and roads. Such data support relational analyses to increase understanding of trail degradation, and long-term monitoring of the natural and recreational integrity of the trail system infrastructure.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2025

Exploring the use of non-invasive drone-based Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) to characterize biogenic gas dynamics in subtropical peat soils

Peat soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle as natural producers of biogenic greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and carbon dioxide) that accumulate within the soil matrix and are episodically released to the atmosphere. Previous studies have showed the unique ability of ground-based minimally-invasive geophysical methods like ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to characterize carbon dynamics in peat soils. However, the GPR methods are still limited by the scale of measurements and soil disturbance potentially altering biogenic gas releases during deployment. Here we explore the potential of drone-based GPR for identification of hot spots and hot moments of gas accumulation and release in subtropical peat soils. We collected drone-based GPR datasets across two grids (~ 17,500 m2) in the Florida Everglades during January, September, and November of 2023 to characterize peat thickness and seasonal variability of gas content. Results show that drone-based GPR is effective and efficient for: 1) capturing the temporal variation of in-situ biogenic gas content in peat soils with changes between 1-25% volumetric gas content over repeatable grids; 2) inferring peat thickness from discrete measurements ranging between 0.8-1.2 m; and 3) estimating methane flux releases of 63 and 135 mg CH4 m-2 day-1 for specific locations and time periods that are strikingly consistent with our coincident gas trap measurements. This work also indicates that (1) spatial distribution of gas content in the Everglades is strongly controlled by landscape morphology such as ridges and sloughs and (2) the temporal variation of gas content is seasonal with increased gas production during the wet season.

Florida↗
USGS2008

Differences in evaporation between a floating pan and class a pan on land

Research was conducted to develop a method for obtaining floating pan evaporation rates in a small (less than 10,000 m 2 ) wetland, lagoon, or pond. Floating pan and land pan evaporation data were collected from March 1 to August 31, 2005, at a small natural wetland located in the alluvium of the Canadian River near Norman, Oklahoma, at the U.S. Geological Survey Norman Landfill Toxic Substances Hydrology Research Site. Floating pan evaporation rates were compared with evaporation rates from a nearby standard Class A evaporation pan on land. Floating pan evaporation rates were significantly less than land pan evaporation rates for the entire period and on a monthly basis. Results indicated that the use of a floating evaporation pan in a small free‐water surface better simulates actual physical conditions on the water surface that control evaporation. Floating pan to land pan ratios were 0.82 for March, 0.87 for April, 0.85 for May, 0.85 for June, 0.79 for July, and 0.69 for August.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2017

Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

Maine, Massachusetts↗
USGS2015

Evaluating species richness: biased ecological inference results from spatial heterogeneity in species detection probabilities

Accurate estimates of species richness are necessary to test predictions of ecological theory and evaluate biodiversity for conservation purposes. However, species richness is difficult to measure in the field because some species will almost always be overlooked due to their cryptic nature or the observer's failure to perceive their cues. Common measures of species richness that assume consistent observability across species are inviting because they may require only single counts of species at survey sites. Single-visit estimation methods ignore spatial and temporal variation in species detection probabilities related to survey or site conditions that may confound estimates of species richness. We used simulated and empirical data to evaluate the bias and precision of raw species counts, the limiting forms of jackknife and Chao estimators, and multi-species occupancy models when estimating species richness to evaluate whether the choice of estimator can affect inferences about the relationships between environmental conditions and community size under variable detection processes. Four simulated scenarios with realistic and variable detection processes were considered. Results of simulations indicated that (1) raw species counts were always biased low, (2) single-visit jackknife and Chao estimators were significantly biased regardless of detection process, (3) multispecies occupancy models were more precise and generally less biased than the jackknife and Chao estimators, and (4) spatial heterogeneity resulting from the effects of a site covariate on species detection probabilities had significant impacts on the inferred relationships between species richness and a spatially explicit environmental condition. For a real dataset of bird observations in northwestern Alaska, the four estimation methods produced different estimates of local species richness, which severely affected inferences about the effects of shrubs on local avian richness. Overall, our results indicate that neglecting the effects of site covariates on species detection probabilities may lead to significant bias in estimation of species richness, as well as the inferred relationships between community size and environmental covariates.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2000

Land-subsidence and ground-water storage monitoring in the Tucson Active Management Area, Arizona

The Tucson Active Management Area (TAMA) comprises two basins--Tucson Basin and Avra Valley. The TAMA has been directed by Arizona ground-water law to attain an annual balance between groundwater withdrawals and recharge by the year 2025. This balance is defined by the statute as "safe yield." Current ground-water withdrawals exceed recharge, resulting in conditions of ground-water overdraft, which causes removal of water from ground-water storage and subsidence of the land surface. Depletion of storage and associated land subsidence will not be halted until all discharge from the system, both natural and human induced, is balanced by recharge. The amount of the ground-water overdraft has been difficult to estimate until recently because it could not be directly measured. Overdraft has been estimated using indirect water-budget methods that rely on uncertain estimates of recharge. As a result, the status of the ground-water budget could not be known with great certainty. Gravity methods offer a means to directly measure ground-water overdraft through measurement of changes in the gravitational field of the Earth that are caused by changes in the amount of water stored in the subsurface. Changes in vertical position also affect the measured gravity value and thus subsidence also must be monitored. The combination of periodic observations of gravity and vertical positions provide direct measures of changes in stored ground water and land subsidence.

Arizona↗
USGS2002

Water-quality monitoring and studies of the formation and fate of trihalomethanes during the third injection, storage and recovery test at Lancaster, Antelope Valley, California, March 1998 through April 1999

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works and the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency, conducted three cycles of injection, storage, and recovery tests to evaluate the feasibility of artificially recharging ground water in the Lancaster area of Antelope Valley, California. During the third cycle (March 1998 through April 1999), the tests included investigations of the formation and fate of trihalomethanes in the aquifer. Trihalomethanes are disinfection by-products formed by reaction between natural dissolved organic carbon that is present in water and chlorine that is added during the drinking-water-treatment process. This report includes a discussion of the design of the investigation; descriptions of the sampling, analytical, and experimental methods used in the investigation; and a presentation of the data collected. During the third cycle, 60 million gallons of chlorinated water was injected into the aquifer through well 7N/12W-27P2 in the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works well field in Lancaster between April 15 and June 16, 1998. One hundred fifty million gallons of water was extracted from the same well between June 30, 1998, and April 29, 1999. Water-quality samples were collected during the entire cycle from the well and from a nearby set of nested piezometers, and were analyzed for residual chlorine, dissolved organic carbon, trihalomethane, major anion, and dissolved solid concentrations; ultraviolet absorbance spectra; and a number of field water-quality parameters. A statistical analysis was done to evaluate the analytical precision of the residual chlorine, dissolved organic carbon, trihalomethane, and ultraviolet absorbance measurements on these samples. The formation of trihalomethanes in the injection water was examined in laboratory experiments: Trihalomethane concentrations in samples of injection water were monitored during a storage period, and trihalomethane formation potential in the presence of excess chlorine was measured. The role of mixing between injection water and ground water and the conservative or non-conservative behavior of trihalomethanes was studied by adding a conservative tracer, sulfur hexafluoride, to the injection water and monitoring its concentration in the extraction water. The potential for biodegradation of trihalomethanes by aquifer bacteria was assessed in laboratory experiments: Microcosms containing ground water or extraction water and sediment or concentrated bacteria were spiked with trihalomethanes, and the amount of trihalomethanes was monitored during an incubation period. The potential for sorption of trihalomethanes to aquifer sediments was assessed in laboratory experiments: Mixtures of sediment and water were spiked with trihalomethanes, and then the trihalomethane concentrations were measured after an equilibration period.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Notes on interpretation of geophysical data over areas of mineralization in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has the potential to contain substantial metallic mineral resources. Although valuable mineral deposits have been identified, much of the country’s potential remains unknown. Geophysical surveys, particularly those conducted from airborne platforms, are a well-accepted and cost-effective method for obtaining information on the geological setting of a given area. This report summarizes interpretive findings from various geophysical surveys over selected mineral targets in Afghanistan, highlighting what existing data tell us. These interpretations are mainly qualitative in nature, because of the low resolution of available geophysical data. Geophysical data and simple interpretations are included for these six areas and deposit types: (1) Aynak: Sedimentary-hosted copper; (2) Zarkashan: Porphyry copper; (3) Kundalan: Porphyry copper; (4) Dusar Shaida: Volcanic-hosted massive sulphide; (5) Khanneshin: Carbonatite-hosted rare earth element; and (6) Chagai Hills: Porphyry copper.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Water use trends and demand projections in the Northwest Florida Water Management District

The Northwest Florida Water Management District is located in the western panhandle of Florida and encompasses about 11,200 square miles. In 1995, the District had an estimated population of 1.13 million, an increase of about 47 percent from the 1975 population of 0.77 million. Over 50 percent of the resident population lives within 10 miles of the coast. In addition, hundreds of thousands of visitors come to the coastal areas of the panhandle during the summer months for recreation or vacation purposes. Water withdrawn to meet demands for public supply, domestic self-supplied, commercial-industrial, agricultural irrigation, and recreational irrigation purposes in the District increased 18 percent (52 million gallons per day) between 1970 and 1995. The greatest increases were for public supply and domestic self-supplied (99 percent increase) and for agricultural irrigation (60 percent increase) between 1970 and 1995. In 1995, approximately 70 percent of the water withdrawn was from ground-water sources, with the majority of this from the Floridan aquifer system. The increasing water demands have affected water levels in the Floridan aquifer system, especially along the coastal areas. The Northwest Florida Water Management District is mandated under the Florida Statutes (Chapter 373) to protect and manage the water resources in this area of the State. The mandate requires that current and future water demands be met, while water resources and water-dependent natural systems are sustained. For this project, curve fitting and extrapolation were used to project most of the variables (population, population served by public supply, and water use) to the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. This mathematical method involves fitting a curve to historical population or water-use data and then extending this curve to arrive at future values. The population within the region is projected to reach 1,596,888 by the year 2020, an increase of 41 percent between 1995 and 2020. Most of the population in this region will continue to reside in the urban areas of Pensacola and Tallahassee, and along the coastal areas. The population served by public water supply is projected to reach 1,353,836 by the year 2020, an increase of nearly 46 percent between 1995 and 2020. Total water demand for the Northwest Florida Water Management District is projected to reach 940.2 million gallons per day in 2000, 1,003.1 million gallons per day in 2010, and 1,059.1 million gallons per day in 2020. Excluding water withdrawn for power generation from these totals, water demands will increase 34 percent between 1995 and 2020, and 58 percent between 1970 and 2020. Specifically, public supply demands are projected to increase 74.1 million gallons per day (53 percent) and domestic self-supplied and small public supply systems demands are projected to increase 9.1 million gallons per day (28 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Commercial- industrial self-supplied demands are projected to increase about 16.9 million gallons per day (13 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Agricultural and recreational irrigation demands combined are projected to increase 16.8 million gallons per day (48 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Water demands for power generation are projected to increase about 53.9 million gallons per day (10 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Although power generation water use shows a projected increase during this time, plant capacities are not expected to change dramatically.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Developing fluvial fish species distribution models across the conterminous United States—A framework for management and conservation

This report explains the steps and specific methods used to predict fluvial fish occurrences in their native ranges for the conterminous United States. In this study, boosted regression tree models predict distributions of 271 ecologically important fluvial fish species using relations between fish presence/absence and 22 natural and anthropogenic landscape variables. Models developed for the freshwater portions of the ranges for species represented 28 families. Cyprinidae was the family with the most species (87 of 271) modeled for this study, followed by Percidae (34) and Ictaluridae (17). Model predictive performance was evaluated using four metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and True Skill Statistic, which are all from tenfold cross-validation results. The relative importance of the predictor variables in the boosted regression tree models was calculated and ranked for each species. The three strongest natural predictors of fish distributions were network catchment area, the mean annual air temperature of the local catchment, and the maximum elevation of the local catchment, while the three strongest anthropogenic predictors were downstream main stem dam density, distance to downstream main stem dam, and the percentage of pasture/hay land use area within network catchment boundaries. Study results showed 61 fish species were sensitive to climate variables, and 40 fish species were sensitive to anthropogenic stressors. The models developed in this study can be used to derive critical information regarding habitat protection priorities, anthropogenic threats, and potential effects of climate change on habitat suitability, aiding in efforts to conserve fluvial fishes now and into the future.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗
USGS1984

Thermal conductivity determinations on solid rock - a comparison between a steady-state divided-bar apparatus and a commercial transient line-source device

Two apparatuses were used to measure thermal conductivities on pairs of contiguous samples from 17 specimens of solid rock: the USGS divided-bar apparatus, a steadystate comparative method, and the Shotherm "Quick Thermal Meter" (QTM), which employs a transient strip heat source. Both devices were calibrated relative to fused silica. Both devices have a reproducibility of ??5% or better depending, to some extent, on the physical nature of the specimen being tested. For solid rocks, specimen preparation for the divided bar is much more tedious and expensive than for the QTM, which seems insensitive to minor surface roughness. The QTM does, however, require quite large specimens (30 mm ?? 60 mm ?? 100 mm as a minimum for rocks) with even larger specimens (50 mm ?? 100 mm ?? 100 mm) required for higher conductivity material (3.5 W m-1 K-1 and greater). Experimental times are comparable; however, the QTM is a self-contained unit that can be transported easily and set up quickly and requires no more space than a standard desk top. From a formal statistical comparison, it appears that, over a large range of conductivities (1.4 to ???5 W m-1 K-1) and rock types, the two instruments will yield the same value of thermal conductivity for isotropic rocks. ?? 1984.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2022

Gaining decision-maker confidence through community consensus: Developing environmental DNA standards for data display on the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species database

To advance national efforts for the detection and biosurveillance of aquatic invasive species (AIS), we employed a community consensus process to enable the incorporation of environmental DNA (eDNA) detection data into the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database (https://nas.er.usgs.gov/eDNA/). Our goal was to identify minimum standards and best practices for the verification of eDNA data by working closely with AIS eDNA community practitioners and natural resource managers across government, private and academic sectors. To better inform management decisions, verified AIS eDNA data will be displayed on a separate mapping layer alongside visual sighting data with the inclusion of additional information on the eDNA methods employed to collect and produce the data. To allow for eDNA data display, we produced consensus derived online documents including a submission application and data submission template and are developing a guidance document for detailing the eDNA data submission process. We also developed a communication plan including a mechanism for reporting detections to appropriate managers for consideration prior to display. The products of these efforts are an application and data submission process that will be used in the new environmental DNA data layer on the Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database. Herein, we detail how we engaged the eDNA community for consensus of our standards, share lessons learned from the process, and describe the benefits of such an approach at instilling confidence among the research and decision-maker community.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2011

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Journal of Environmental Management↗