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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically releases updates to National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the United States and its territories leveraging current scientific knowledge and methodologies to guide public policy, building codes, and risk assessments regarding potential ground shaking due to earthquakes that may result in infrastructure damage. In subduction zones, there is a need to separate the earthquake catalog into tectonic regimes to create specific seismicity models for which the most appropriate ground‐motion models are then applied. Here, we describe newly developed methods and software, called CatSep, that classifies subduction zone events into three primary tectonic regimes: crustal, interface, and intraslab. This method incorporates information about the location of the earthquake relative to the subducting slab, the depth of the Mohorovičić discontinuity, and the earthquake’s moment tensor. Applying this method is a first step in the NSHM workflow for regions covering U.S. subduction zones. Results using this subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM earthquake catalog are presented and analyzed.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2026

The digital archivist: Automating legacy macroseismic data processing using large language models

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to automate the extraction and structuring of macroseismic observations from summary reports. We apply this workflow to the 22 March 1957 M 5.3 Daly City, California, earthquake as a case study. We used Gemini to extract addresses, originally assigned modified Mercalli intensity values, and descriptions from each report. To address coordinate precision limits, addresses were geocoded via Google’s Geocoding application programming interface. This workflow yielded over 2300 geocoded intensity reports for the Daly City earthquake. We use the geocoded accounts, with the original report intensity assignments, to develop a shaking intensity map that in some respects rivals modern Did You Feel It? Maps. We also extract and present data for the 9 February 1971 M L 6.7 Sylmar, California, earthquake. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs for reliably extracting and analyzing large, unstructured macroseismic datasets. LLMs offer a scalable solution for rapidly digitizing macroseismic archives, enabling their broader use to constrain ground‐motion models in modern seismic hazard analysis and to improve our understanding of site effects in urban areas. The concepts explored here may also be applied to the handling of other legacy seismological and earth science data.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Distinct yet adjacent earthquake sequences near the Mendocino Triple Junction: 20 December 2021 Mw 6.1 and 6.0 Petrolia, and 20 December 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale

Two earthquake sequences occurred a year apart at the Mendocino Triple Junction in northern California: first the 20 December 2021 �w 6.1 and 6.0 Petrolia sequence, then the 20 December 2022 �w 6.4 Ferndale sequence. To delineate active faults and understand the relationship between these sequences, we applied an automated deep‐learning workflow to create enhanced and relocated earthquake catalogs for both the sequences. The enhanced catalog newly identified more than 14,000 M 0–2 earthquakes and also found 852 of 860 already cataloged events. We found that deep‐learning and template‐matching approaches complement each other to improve catalog completeness because deep learning finds more M 0–2 background seismicity, whereas template‐matching finds the smallest M < 0 events near already known events. The enhanced catalog revealed that the 2021 Petrolia and 2022 Ferndale sequences were distinct in space and time, but adjacent in space. Though both the sequences happened in the downgoing Gorda slab, the shallower Ferndale sequence ruptured within the uppermost slab near the subduction interface, while the onshore Petrolia sequence occurred deeper in the mantle. Deep‐learning‐enhanced earthquake catalogs could help monitor evolving earthquake sequences, identify detailed seismogenic fault structures, and understand space–time variations in earthquake rupture and sequence behavior in a complex tectonic setting.

California↗

USGS2026

Rapid characterization of the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake

The 29 July 2025 M w 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia, earthquake was the sixth largest instrumentally recorded earthquake. This event was seismically well observed at regional and teleseismic distances, but publicly available near‐source data were sparse at the time of the event, presenting unique challenges for rapid source and impact characterization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center provides global real‐time monitoring for earthquakes, including rapid response information products that estimate source characteristics, shaking, and the resulting impacts. We describe the USGS rapid response earthquake information products following the Kamchatka event and discuss their implications for ongoing hazards in the region. We describe potential improvements to our response workflows motivated by this event, including more rapid constraints on source geometries and the automated selection of fault geometries for finite‐fault inversions. The rapid response products together support the interpretation of a unilateral southwestward rupture with significant slip on the southwestern end of the rupture extent. The M w 8.8–9.0 event in 1952, which ruptured a comparable extent of the Kuril–Kamchatka subduction interface, has many similarities to the 2025 rupture. This illustrates that slip deficits may remain following great earthquakes and highlights the usefulness of comparative studies between historic and modern events.

Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone↗

USGS1977

Reflection and refraction of type-II S waves in elastic and anelastic media

The general theory of viscoelasticity, which accounts for elastic as well as anelastic linear behavior of materials, predicts that two types of S waves propagate in anelastic earth materials. The particle motion for an inhomogeneous plane S wave of type I is elliptical in the plane defined by the directions of propagation and attenuation, while the particle motion for an inhomogeneous plane S wave of type II is linear perpendicular to this plane. The general theory predicts that an S -wave incident upon a plane boundary perpendicular to the plane defined by the directions of propagation and attenuation generates S waves only of the same type. General characteristics of the type-II S waves reflected and refracted at plane anelastic boundaries are: (a) velocities and maximum attenuations which depend on the angle of incidence and frequency, (b) maximum energy flow at a different velocity and in a different direction than phase propagation, (c) energy flow across the boundary due to interaction of the incident and reflected waves. The general theory predicts these characteristics for the waves whenever a plane type-II S wave interacts with a plane anelastic boundary such as a soil-bedrock, crust-mantle, or core-mantle interface. None of these characteristics are predicted for the plane SH waves described by elasticity theory.

Bulletin of Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1994

Wide-band analysis of the 3 March 1985 central Chile earthquake: Overall source process and rupture history

We apply a linear, finite-fault waveform inversion scheme to the near-source strong-motion records, the teleseismic body waves, and the long-period Rayleigh waves recorded for the 3 March 1985 Chile earthquake to recover the mainshock rupture history. The data contain periods between about 2 and 350 sec and are inverted by allowing a variable dislocation rise time at each point on the fault. The results indicate that the mainshock had a seismic moment of 1.5 × 10 28 dyne-cm ( M w 8.0) and ruptured mainly updip and to the south of the hypocenter for a distance of about 150 km along the Nazca-South America plate boundary. A smaller northward component of propagation is also evident, giving a total rupture length of about 200 km. The total source duration of the mainshock is 70 sec, with the majority of the slip occurring within the first 40 sec in a broad 100-km-wide zone in the northern half of the rupture area. Slip in this region extends from a depth of 55 km to within about 10 km of the surface and contains two areas of maximum slip (2.3 and 2.9 m) with rise times of approximately 14 sec. Slip in the southern portion of the fault reaches lower peak values (1.8 m) and extends downdip to depths no greater than 30 km. An independent variable rise-time inversion of the teleseismic body waves alone yields similar results, indicating that a significant component of slow fault motion is not required for this earthquake. The mainshock was preceded by several smaller precursors, the largest of which is an M w ∼ 6.6 thrust earthquake occurring at a depth of 22 km in the shallow 15° dipping portion of the plate interface.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1997

Estimating the diminution of shear-wave amplitude with distance: Application to the Los Angeles, California, urban area

The rate of decay with distance of shear-wave amplitude, computed from 20-sec S -wave spectra, is determined from TERRA scope records of small earthquakes in the greater Los Angeles area. Piecewise log-linear interpolation functions and traditional diminution functions are used to fit spectral decay to a maximum distance of 150 km. Simultaneously, isotropic source and receiver terms are determined. Separate branches of the spectral decay function are found for two categories of source depth: greater than 10 km and less than 10 km. In the hypocentral distance range of 20 to 150 km and in the frequency range of 0.5 to 8.0 Hz, an important result of the investigation is that the horizontal-component decay rate associated with deeper-crustal sources is generally greater than that associated with shallower sources and is greater than that which is estimated using more traditional models of spectral decay with distance. The same behavior generally holds for vertical-component spectra. The variation in apparent attenuation rate with source depth should affect seismic-hazard estimates associated with the rupture of blind thrust faults in the Los Angeles basin and vicinity. The results of the inversions suggest that interpolation function representations of spectral decay are sensitive to perturbations of S -wave amplitude due to crustal reflectors, such as post-critical S -wave arrivals from mid-crustal to deep-crustal velocity interfaces.

California↗

USGS1999

Fault-slip distribution of the 1995 Colima-Jalisco, Mexico, earthquake

Broadband teleseismic P waves have been analyzed to recover the rupture history of the large ( M S 7.4) Colima-Jalisco, Mexico, shallow interplate thrust earthquake of 9 October 1995. Ground-displacement records in the period range of 1-60 sec are inverted using a linear, finite-fault waveform inversion procedure that allows a variable dislocation duration on a prescribed fault. The method is applied using both a narrow fault that simulates a line source with a dislocation window of 50 sec and a wide fault with a possible rise time of up to 20 sec that additionally allows slip updip and downdip from the hypocenter. The line-source analysis provides a spatio-temporal image of the slip distribution consisting of several large sources located northwest of the hypocenter and spanning a range of rupture velocities. The two-dimensional finite-fault inversion allows slip over this rupture-velocity range and indicates that the greatest coseismic displacement (3-4 m) is located between 70 and 130 km from the hypocenter at depths shallower than about 15 km. Slip in this shallow region consists of two major sources, one of which is delayed by about 10 sec relative to a coherent propagation of rupture along the plate interface. These two slip sources account for about one-third of the total P -wave seismic moment of 8.3 × 10 27 dyne-cm ( M w 7.9) and may have been responsible for the local tsunami observed along the coast following the earthquake.

Colima-Jalisco↗

USGS2023

Recognizing political influences in participatory social-ecological systems modeling

Stakeholder participation in social-ecological systems (SES) modeling is increasingly considered a desirable way to elicit diverse sources of knowledge about SES behavior and to promote inclusive decision-making in SES. Understanding how participatory modeling processes function in the context of long-term adaptive management of SES may allow for better design of participatory processes to achieve the intended outcomes of inclusionary knowledge, representativeness, and social learning, while avoiding unintended outcomes. Long-term adaptive management contexts often include political influences -- attempts to shift or preserve power structures and authority, and efforts to represent the political and economic interests of stakeholders -- in the computer models that are used to shape policy making and implementation. In this research, we examine a period that included a major transition in the watershed model used for management of the Chesapeake Bay in the United States. The Chesapeake Bay watershed model has been in development since the 1980s, and is considered by many to be an exemplary case of participatory modeling. We use documentary analysis and interviews with participants involved in the model application and development transition to reveal a variety of ways in which participatory modeling may be subject to different kinds of political influences, some of which resulted in unintended outcomes, including: perceptions of difficulty updating the model in substantive ways, “gaming” of the model/participatory process by stakeholders, and increasing resistance against considering uncertainty in the system not captured by the model. This research suggests unintended or negative outcomes may be associated with both participatory decision-making and stakeholder learning even though they are so often touted as the benefits of participatory modeling. We end with a hypothesis that further development of a theory of computer model governance to bridge model impact and broader theories of environmental governance at the science-policy interface may result in improved SES modeling outcomes.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2011

Unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Journal of Statistical Software↗

USGS2013

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2007

Lethal and sublethal effects of ammonia to juvenile Lampsilis mussels (Unionidae) in sediment and water-only exposures

We compared the sensitivity of two juvenile unionid mussels (Lampsilis cardium and Lampsilis higginsii) to ammonia in 96-h water-only and sediment tests by use of mortality and growth measurements. Twenty mussels were placed in chambers buried 2.5 cm into reference sediments to approximate pore-water exposure (sediment tests) or elevated above the bottom of the experimental units (water-only tests). In the sediment tests, a pH gradient existed between the overlying water (mean 8.0), sediment-water interface (mean 7.7), and 2.5 cm depth (mean 7.4). We assumed that mussels were exposed to ammonia in pore water and report effect concentrations in pore water, but if they were exposed to the higher pH water, more of the ammonia would be in the toxic un-ionized (NH 3) form. The only differences in toxicity and growth between mussel species occurred in some of the water-only tests. In sediment tests, median lethal concentrations (LC50s) ranged from 124 to 125 ??g NH3-N/L. In water-only tests, LC50s ranged from 157 to 372 ??g NH3-N/L. In sediment tests, median effective concentrations (EC50s based on growth) ranged from 30 to 32 ??g NH3-N/L. Juvenile mussels in the water-only tests grew poorly and did not exhibit a dose-response relation. These data demonstrate that growth is a sensitive and valuable endpoint for studies on ammonia toxicity with juvenile freshwater mussels and that growth should be measured via sediment tests. ?? 2007 SETAC.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2007

Development of a mercury speciation, fate, and biotic uptake (BIOTRANSPEC) model: Application to Lahontan Reservoir (Nevada, USA)

A mathematically linked mercury transport, speciation, kinetic, and simple biotic uptake (BIOTRANSPEC) model has been developed. An extension of the metal transport and speciation (TRANSPEC) model, BIOTRANSPEC estimates the fate and biotic uptake of inorganic (Hg(II)), elemental (Hg(0)) and organic (MeHg) forms of mercury and their species in the dissolved, colloidal (e.g., dissolved organic matter [DOM]), and particulate phases of surface aquatic systems. A pseudo-steady state version of the model was used to describe mercury dynamics in Lahontan Reservoir (near Carson City, NV, USA), where internal loading of the historically deposited mercury is remobilized, thereby maintaining elevated water concentrations. The Carson River is the main source of total mercury (THg), of which more than 90% is tightly bound in a gold-silver-mercury amalgam, to the system through loadings in the spring, with negligible input from the atmospheric deposition. The speciation results suggest that aqueous species are dominated by Hg-DOM, Hg(OH)2, and HgClOH. Sediment-to-water diffusion of MeHg and Hg-DOM accounts for approximately 10% of total loadings to the water column. The water column acts as a net sink for MeHg by reducing its levels through two competitive processes: Uptake by fish, and net MeHg demethylation. Although reservoir sediments produce significant amounts of MeHg (4 g/d), its transport from sediment to water is limited (1.6 g/d), possibly because of its adsorption on metal oxides of iron and manganese at the sediment-water interface. Fish accumulate approximately 45% of the total MeHg mass in the water column, and 9% of total MeHg uptake by fish leaves the system because of fishing. Results from this new model reiterate the previous conclusion that more than 90% of THg input is retained in sediment, which perpetuates elevated water concentrations.

Nevada↗

USGS2008

Potential for 4- n -nonylphenol biodegradation in stream sediments

The potential for in situ biodegradation of 4-nonylphenol (4-NP) was investigated in three hydrologically distinct streams impacted by wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the United States. Microcosms were prepared with sediments from each site and amended with [U-ring- 14 C]4- n -nonylphenol (4- n -NP) as a model test substrate. Microcosms prepared with sediment collected upstream of the WWTP outfalls and incubated under oxic conditions showed rapid and complete mineralization of [U-ring- 14 C]4- n -NP to 14 CO 2 in all three systems. In contrast, no mineralization of [U-ring- 14 C]4- n -NP was observed in these sediments under anoxic (methanogenic) conditions. The initial linear rate of [U-ring-14C]4-n-NP mineralization in sediments from upstream and downstream of the respective WWTP outfalls was inversely correlated with the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) of the streambed sediments. These results suggest that the net supply of dissolved oxygen to streambed sediments is a key determinant of the rate and extent of 4-NP biodegradation in stream systems. In the stream systems considered by the present study, dissolved oxygen concentrations in the overlying water column (8–10 mg/L) and in the bed sediment pore water (1–3 mg/L at a depth of 10 cm below the sediment–water interface) were consistent with active in situ 4-NP biodegradation. These results suggest WWTP procedures that maximize the delivery of dissolved oxygen while minimizing the release of BOD to stream receptors favor efficient biodegradation of 4-NP contaminants in wastewater-impacted stream environments.

Colorado, Iowa↗

USGS2026

Identifying overwintering habitat of silver and bighead carp in the lower Mississippi River: Implications for harvesting and population reduction

A total of 41 sites along a 58 mi reach of the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) were surveyed during winter 2022 for invasive carp aggregation.* Sites consisting of scallops closest to the dike-vegetated bank interface with deeper, slow-moving water and consistent access back to the main channel were preferred. Carp avoided strong currents, and there was no trend in depth selection other than avoiding shallow (less than 20 ft) water. In January 2023, recreation-grade sonar (e.g., side-scan and down-imaging) surveys were conducted in the same reach of the LMR to demonstrate the technology and evaluate carp population size at sites with high abundances based on previous surveys. Fish density was estimated to be 32 fish/10,000 yd 3 (95% confidence interval [CI; 31–34]) using down-imaging software, which is the first estimate of assumed bigheaded carp density in the LMR. Additional fish collections are needed to confirm species composition and size abundance provided by sonar technology. Resurveying sites with high carp abundance over a range of river stages would be necessary to fully characterize habitat conditions, evaluate influence of river stage on occupancy duration, and continue to evaluate species composition and mass removal techniques as a management option in the Lower Mississippi River.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2023

Getting Started with MODFLFOW

Numerical modeling of groundwater flow systems was once accessible only to modeling specialists in the hydrogeological community. Software such as MODFLOW—the most frequently used groundwater modeling program in the world—and associated graphical user interfaces (GUIs) have made modeling possible for most groundwater scientists. This book provides the bridge from understanding to implementing models by introducing the basics of MODFLOW version 6 and providing readers who have a working knowledge of groundwater flow with a guide through construction of their first groundwater model.

Book↗

USGS2010

Algal blooms and "Marine snow": Mechanisms that enhance preservation of organic carbon in ancient fine-grained sediments

Combined petrographic and geochemical methods are used to investigate the microfabrics present in thin sections prepared from representative organic carbon-rich mudstones collected from three successions (the Kimmeridge Clay Formation, the Jet Rock Member of the Whitby Mudstone Formation, and the pebble shale and Hue Shale). This study was initiated to determine how organic carbon-rich materials were being delivered to the sediment–water interface, and what happened to them after deposition, prior to deep burial. Analyses of the fabrics present shows that they exhibit many common attributes. In particular they are all: (1) highly heterogeneous on the scale of a thin section, (2) organized into thin beds (< 10 mm thick) composed mainly of mineral mixtures of fine-grained siliciclastic detritus and carbonate materials, and (3) contain significant concentrations of organic carbon, much of which is organized into laminasets that contain abundant organomineralic aggregates and pellets. In addition, framboidal pyrite (range of sizes from < 20 μm to < 1 μm) and abundant agglutinated foraminifers are present in some units. The individual beds are commonly sharp-based and overlain by thin, silt lags. The tops of many of the beds have been homogenized and some regions of the pelleted laminasets contain small horizontal burrows. The organomineralic aggregates present in these mudstones are interpreted to be ancient examples of marine snow. This marine snow likely formed in the water column, particularly during phytoplankton blooms, and was then transported rapidly to the seafloor. The existence of the thin beds with homogenized tops and an in-situ infauna indicates that between blooms there was sufficient oxygen and time for a mixed layer to develop as a result of sediment colonization by diminutive organisms using either aerobic or dysaerobic metabolic pathways. These textures suggest that the constituents of these mudstones were delivered neither as a continuous rain of sediment nor were the bottom waters persistently anoxic. In addition, the presence of thin lags and sharp-based beds suggests that the seafloor was being episodically reworked during deposition. These fabrics indicate that conditions in the water columns and at the seafloors while these rocks were being deposited were very dynamic, and episodic fluxes of high concentrations of organic carbon to the seafloor, during phytoplankton blooms, likely enhanced preservation of organic carbon.

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗

USGS2014

Distal facies variability within the Upper Triassic part of the Otuk Formation in northern Alaska

The Triassic-Jurassic Otuk Formation is a potentially important source rock in allochthonous structural positions in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in the North Slope of Alaska. This study focuses on three localities of the Upper Triassic (Norian) limestone member, which form a present-day, 110-km-long, east-west transect in the central Brooks Range. All three sections are within the structurally lowest Endicott Mountain allochthon and are interpreted to have been deposited along a marine outer shelf with a ramp geometry. The uppermost limestone member of the Otuk was chosen for this study in order to better understand lateral and vertical variability within carbonate source rocks, to aid prediction of organic richness, and ultimately, to evaluate the potential for these units to act as continuous (or unconventional) reservoirs. At each locality, 1 to 4 m sections of the limestone member were measured and sampled in detail to capture fine-scale features. Hand sample and thin section descriptions reveal four major microfacies in the study area, and one diagenetically recrystallized microfacies. Microfacies 1 and 2 are interpreted to represent redeposition of material by downslope transport, whereas microfacies 3 and 4 have high total organic carbon (TOC) values and are classified as primary depositional organofacies. Microfacies 3 is interpreted to have been deposited under primarily high productivity conditions, with high concentrations of radiolarian tests. Microfacies 4 was deposited under the lowest relative-oxygen conditions, but abundant thin bivalve shells indicate that the sediment-water interface was probably not anoxic. The Otuk Formation is interpreted to have been deposited outboard of a southwest-facing ramp margin, with the location of the three limestone outcrops likely in relatively close proximity during deposition. All three sections have evidence of transported material, implying that the Triassic Alaskan Basin was not a low-energy, deep-water setting, but rather a dynamic system with intermittent, yet significant, downslope flow. Upwelling played an important role in the small-scale vertical variability in microfacies. The zone of upwelling and resultant oxygen-minimum zone may have migrated across the ramp during fourth- or fifth-order sea-level changes.

Alaska↗