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A global search for stress shadows

[1] Debate continues regarding the relative proportion of earthquakes triggered by passing seismic waves versus static stress changes from a main shock. Static stress changes are expected to have long‐term effects on earthquake probabilities, whereas dynamic stress changes due to the passing of seismic waves should not. Both mechanisms are expected to raise seismicity rates in some areas, but only static stress change calculations predict rate decrease shadows. Thus, identification of post‐main‐shock earthquake suppression is diagnostic of a static stress change process. We note that in principle, static stress change theory predicts suppression of particular earthquake mechanisms in a shadow zone rather than an overall rate reduction. A stress shadow can therefore be characterized by a change in the average earthquake focal mechanism before and after a main shock that results from suppression of a given mechanism type. We examined average mechanisms from ±2° radii and 5‐year periods before and after 119 M s ≥ 7 main shock earthquakes drawn from the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Significant average mechanism changes caused by earthquake suppression were found in only two cases. However, by stacking the data, we were able to resolve statistically significant suppression of particular post‐main‐shock focal mechanisms. This indicates that, while static stress shadows are subtle, they are indeed present in the global catalog.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Physical property changes in hydrate-bearing sediment due to depressurization and subsequent repressurization

Physical property measurements of sediment cores containing natural gas hydrate are typically performed on material exposed, at least briefly, to non-in situ conditions during recovery. To examine the effects of a brief excursion from the gas-hydrate stability field, as can occur when pressure cores are transferred to pressurized storage vessels, we measured physical properties on laboratory-formed sand packs containing methane hydrate and methane pore gas. After depressurizing samples to atmospheric pressure, we repressurized them into the methane-hydrate stability field and remeasured their physical properties. Thermal conductivity, shear strength, acoustic compressional and shear wave amplitudes, and speeds of the original and depressurized/repressurized samples are compared. X– ray computed tomography images track how the gas-hydrate distribution changes in the hydrate-cemented sands owing to the depressurizaton/repressurization process. Because depressurization-induced property changes can be substantial and are not easily predicted, particularly in water-saturated, hydrate-bearing sediment, maintaining pressure and temperature conditions throughout the core recovery and measurement process is critical for using laboratory measurements to estimate in situ properties.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Improved tests reveal that the accelarating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant

We test the hypothesis that accelerating moment release (AMR) is a precursor to large earthquakes, using data from California, Nevada, and Sumatra. Spurious cases of AMR can arise from data fitting because the time period, area, and sometimes magnitude range analyzed before each main shock are often optimized to produce the strongest AMR signal. Optimizing the search criteria can identify apparent AMR even if no robust signal exists. For both 1950-2006 California-Nevada M ??? 6.5 earthquakes and the 2004 M9.3 Sumatra earthquake, we can find two contradictory patterns in the pre-main shock earthquakes by data fitting: AMR and decelerating moment release. We compare the apparent AMR found in the real data to the apparent AMR found in four types of synthetic catalogs with no inherent AMR. When spatiotemporal clustering is included in the simulations, similar AMR signals are found by data fitting in both the real and synthetic data sets even though the synthetic data sets contain no real AMR. These tests demonstrate that apparent AMR may arise from a combination of data fitting and normal foreshock and aftershock activity. In principle, data-fitting artifacts could be avoided if the free parameters were determined from scaling relationships between the duration and spatial extent of the AMR pattern and the magnitude of the earthquake that follows it. However, we demonstrate that previously proposed scaling relationships are unstable, statistical artifacts caused by the use of a minimum magnitude for the earthquake catalog that scales with the main shock magnitude. Some recent AMR studies have used spatial regions based on hypothetical stress loading patterns, rather than circles, to select the data. We show that previous tests were biased and that unbiased tests do not find this change to the method to be an improvement. The use of declustered catalogs has also been proposed to eliminate the effect of clustering but we demonstrate that this does not increase the statistical significance of AMR. Given the ease with which data fitting can find desired patterns in seismicity, future studies of AMR-like observations must include complete tests against synthetic catalogs that include spatiotemporal clustering.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Exponential decline of aftershocks of the M7.9 1868 great Kau earthquake, Hawaii, through the 20th century

The remarkable catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes going back to the 1820s is based on missionary diaries, newspaper accounts, and instrumental records and spans the great M 7.9 Kau earthquake of April 1868 and its aftershock sequence. The earthquake record since 1868 defines a smooth curve complete to M 5.2 of the declining rate into the 21st century, after five short volcanic swarms are removed. A single aftershock curve fits the earthquake record, even with numerous M 6 and 7 main shocks and eruptions. The timing of some moderate earthquakes may be controlled by magmatic stresses, but their overall long‐term rate reflects one of aftershocks of the Kau earthquake. The 1868 earthquake is, therefore, the largest and most controlling stress event in the 19th and 20th centuries. We fit both the modified Omori (power law) and stretched exponential (SE) functions to the earthquakes. We found that the modified Omori law is a good fit to the M ≥ 5.2 earthquake rate for the first 10 years or so and the more rapidly declining SE function fits better thereafter, as supported by three statistical tests. The switch to exponential decay suggests that a possible change in aftershock physics may occur from rate and state fault friction, with no change in the stress rate, to viscoelastic stress relaxation. The 61‐year exponential decay constant is at the upper end of the range of geodetic relaxation times seen after other global earthquakes. Modeling deformation in Hawaii is beyond the scope of this paper, but a simple interpretation of the decay suggests an effective viscosity of 10 19 to 10 20 Pa s pertains in the volcanic spreading of Hawaii's flanks. The rapid decline in earthquake rate poses questions for seismic hazard estimates in an area that is cited as one of the most hazardous in the United States.

Hawaii↗

Observations and interpretation of fundamental mode Rayleigh wavefields recorded by the Transportable Array (USArray)

Broadband recordings of the dense Transportable Array (TA) in the western United States provide unparalleled detailed images of long-period seismic surface wavefields. With 400 stations spanning most of the western United States, wavefronts of fundamental mode Rayleigh waves may be visualized coherently across the array at periods ???40 s. In order to constrain the Rayleigh wave phase velocity structure in the western United States, I assemble a data set of vertical component seismograms from 53 teleseismic events recorded by the TA from April 2006 to October 2007. Complex amplitude spectra from these recordings at peni ods 27-100 s are interpreted using the multiplane wave tomographic method of Friederich and Wielandt (1995) and Pollitz (1999). This analysis yields detailed surface wave phase velocity and three-dimensional shear wave velocity patterns across the North American plate boundary zone, elucidating the active processes in the highly heterogeneous western U.S. upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Tidal asymmetry and residual circulation over linear sandbanks and their implication on sediment transport: a process-oriented numerical study

A series of process-oriented numerical simulations is carried out in order to evaluate the relative role of locally generated residual flow and overtides on net sediment transport over linear sandbanks. The idealized bathymetry and forcing are similar to those present in the Norfolk Sandbanks, North Sea. The importance of bottom drag parameterization and bank orientation with respect to the ambient flow is examined in terms of residual flow and overtide generation, and subsequent sediment transport implications are discussed. The results show that although the magnitudes of residual flow and overtides are sensitive to bottom roughness parameterization and bank orientation, the magnitude of the generated residual flow is always larger than that of the locally generated overtides. Also, net sediment transport is always dominated by the nonlinear interaction of the residual flow and the semidiurnal tidal currents, although cross-bank sediment transport can occur even in the absence of a cross-shore residual flow. On the other hand, net sediment divergence/convergence increases as the bottom drag decreases and as bank orientation increases. The sediment erosion/deposition is not symmetric about the crest of the bank, suggesting that originally symmetric banks would have the tendency to become asymmetric.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Role of aquifer heterogeneity in fresh groundwater discharge and seawater recycling: An example from the Carmel coast, Israel

A case study is shown in which the pattern of submarine groundwater discharge and of seawater recycling is controlled by local hydrogeological variability. The coastal aquifer in Dor Bay is composed of two units: a partly confined calcaranitic sandstone (Kurkar) and an overlying loose sand. Groundwater in the Kurkar has elevated activities of 222 Rn (∼390 dpm/L) and relatively low 224 Ra/ 223 Ra activity ratios (3–4), while the sand groundwater is significantly less radiogenic (6–90 dpm/L) and shows higher 224 Ra/ 223 Ra ratios. Groundwater discharging from sand-covered areas of the bay has salinities of 16–31 and an average 222 Rn activity of 168 dpm/L, which lies on a mixing line between Rn-rich Kurkar fresh water and Rn-poor seawater. Another key observation is that seawater infiltrates to some extent into onshore sand groundwater, while the fresh water within the submarine Kurkar can be traced up to 40 m offshore. This implies that while fresh water mainly discharges from the Kurkar unit, seawater recycling is limited to the loose sand, and that the discharge from sand-covered areas is a mixture of Kurkar water with recycled seawater. Advection rates from the bay floor were calculated from Rn time series and found to vary between 0 and 36 cm/d, correlating negatively with bay water depth. The average flux was 8.1 cm/d, and it did not seem to change much during March, May, and July 2006. The average amount of fresh water discharging to the bay was 5.0 m 3 /d per meter of shoreline. Radon activity in the sand groundwater also fluctuates due to influx of Kurkar-type groundwater.

Carmel Coast, Dor Bay↗

Generation and propagation of nonlinear internal waves in Massachusetts Bay

During the summer, nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) are commonly observed propagating in Massachusetts Bay. The topography of the area is unique in the sense that the generation area (over Stellwagen Bank) is only 25 km away from the shoaling area, and thus it represents an excellent natural laboratory to study the life cycle of NLIWs. To assist in the interpretation of the data collected during the 1998 Massachusetts Bay Internal Wave Experiment (MBIWE98), a fully nonlinear and nonhydrostatic model covering the generation/shoaling region was developed, to investigate the response of the system to the range of background and driving conditions observed. Simplified models were also used to elucidate the role of nonlinearity and dispersion in shaping the NLIW field. This paper concentrates on the generation process and the subsequent evolution in the basin. The model was found to reproduce well the range of propagation characteristics observed (arrival time, propagation speed, amplitude), and provided a coherent framework to interpret the observations. Comparison with a fully nonlinear hydrostatic model shows that during the generation and initial evolution of the waves as they move away from Stellwagen Bank, dispersive effects play a negligible role. Thus the problem can be well understood considering the geometry of the characteristics along which the Riemann invariants of the hydrostatic problem propagate. Dispersion plays a role only during the evolution of the undular bore in the middle of Stellwagen Basin. The consequences for modeling NLIWs within hydrostatic models are briefly discussed at the end.

Massachusetts↗

Crop area estimation using high and medium resolution satellite imagery in areas with complex topography

Reliable estimates of cropped area (CA) in developing countries with chronic food shortages are essential for emergency relief and the design of appropriate market-based food security programs. Satellite interpretation of CA is an effective alternative to extensive and costly field surveys, which fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity at the country-level. Bias-corrected, texture based classifications show little deviation from actual crop inventories, when estimates derived from aerial photographs or field measurements are used to remove systematic errors in medium resolution estimates. In this paper, we demonstrate a hybrid high-medium resolution technique for Central Ethiopia that combines spatially limited unbiased estimates from IKONOS images, with spatially extensive Landsat ETM+ interpretations, land-cover, and SRTM-based topography. Logistic regression is used to derive the probability of a location being crop. These individual points are then aggregated to produce regional estimates of CA. District-level analysis of Landsat based estimates showed CA totals which supported the estimates of the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development. Continued work will evaluate the technique in other parts of Africa, while segmentation algorithms will be evaluated, in order to automate classification of medium resolution imagery for routine CA estimation in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Influences of specific land use/land cover conversions on climatological normals of near-surface temperature

Quantification of the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on proximal measurements of near-surface air temperature is crucial to a better understanding of natural and anthropogenically induced climate change. In this study, data from stations utilized in deriving U.S. climatological temperature normals were analyzed in conjunction with NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis (NNR) estimates and highly accurate LULC change maps in order to isolate the effects of LULC change from other climatological factors. While the “Normals” temperatures exhibited considerable warming in both minima and maxima, the NNR data revealed that the majority of the warming of maximum temperatures was not due to nearby LULC change. Warming of minimum temperatures was roughly evenly split between the effects of LULC change and other influences. Furthermore, the effects of LULC change varied considerably depending upon the particular type of land cover conversion that occurred. Urbanization, in particular, was found to result in warming of minima and maxima, while some LULC conversions that might be expected to have significantly altered nearby temperatures (e.g., clear-cutting of forests) did not.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Magnesium and calcium sulfate stabilities and the water budget of Mars

Magnesium sulfate probably plays a dominant role in the water cycle of Mars away from the polar ice caps through hydration and dehydration reactions. This prominence is due to its abundance, its occurrence in numerous hydration states, and its ability to hydrate and dehydrate rapidly. New experimental studies on the metastable reaction between hexahydrite (MgSO4??6H2O) and starkeyite (MgSO4-4H2O) as a function of temperature and relative humidity, supplemented by recent investigations of the stable reaction between epsomite (MgSO4??7H2O) and hexahydrite and by phase equilibrium calculations, suggest that the most important magnesium sulfate phases involved in the Martian water cycle are MgSO4??11 H2O, epsomite, starkeyite, and possibly kieserite (MgSO4??H2O). Hexahydrite is not predicted to be stable on the surface of Mars. During diurnal variations in temperature and relative humidity, 1 kg of MgSO4 can release or remove from the atmosphere 1.5 kg of H2O by cycling between kieserite and MgSO4??11 H2O. Despite subequal abundances of calcium sulfate, calcium sulfates are not likely to be important in the water cycle of the planet because of sluggish rates of hydration and dehydration and a more limited range of H2O concentrations per kilogram of CaSO4 (0.00 to 0.26 kg kg-1). Modern or recent erosion on Mars attributed to liquid water may be due to the dehydration Of MgSO4??11 H2O because of the inferred abundance and likelihood of occurrence of this phase and its limited stability relative to known variations in temperature and relative humidity.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Composition and origin of the Dewar geochemical anomaly

Dewar crater is a 50-km diameter impact structure located in the highlands northwest of the South Pole–Aitken basin on the lunar farside. A low-albedo area with enhanced Th and Sm values is centered east-northeast of Dewar crater. This area also exhibits elevated FeO abundances (9.0–16.6 wt %) and TiO 2 values (0.6–2 wt %). The range of FeO and TiO 2 abundances determined for the darkest portions of the geochemical anomaly overlap the range of FeO and TiO 2 values determined for nearside mare basalt deposits. Analysis of Clementine spectra obtained from the darkest portions of the Dewar geochemical anomaly indicates that the low-albedo materials contain large amounts of high-Ca clinopyroxene consistent with the presence of major amounts of mare basalt. Cryptomare deposits have played an important role in the formation of the Dewar geochemical anomaly. The evidence indicates that buried basalt, or cryptomare, was excavated from depth during impact events that formed dark-haloed craters in the region. We show that an early Imbrian- or Nectarian-age, low-TiO 2 mare basalt deposit with enhanced Th concentrations (6–7 μ g/g) exists in the Dewar region. This ancient mare unit was buried by ejecta from Dewar crater, creating a cryptomare. Although most mare units on the central farside of the Moon exhibit low Th abundances, the enhanced Th values associated with the Dewar cryptomare deposit indicate that at least some portions of the underlying lunar interior (mantle and crust) on the farside of the Moon were not Th poor.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

MGS-TES thermal inertia study of the Arsia Mons Caldera

Temperatures of the Arsia Mons caldera floor and two nearby control areas were obtained by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES). These observations revealed that the Arsia Mons caldera floor exhibits thermal behavior different from the surrounding Tharsis region when compared with thermal models. Our technique compares modeled and observed data to determine best fit values of thermal inertia, layer depth, and albedo. Best fit modeled values are accurate in the two control regions, but those in the Arsia Mons' caldera are consistently either up to 15 K warmer than afternoon observations, or have albedo values that are more than two standard deviations higher than the observed mean. Models of both homogeneous and layered (such as dust over bedrock) cases were compared, with layered-cases indicating a surface layer at least thick enough to insulate itself from diurnal effects of an underlying substrate material. Because best fit models of the caldera floor poorly match observations, it is likely that the caldera floor experiences some physical process not incorporated into our thermal model. Even on Mars, Arsia Mons is an extreme environment where CO2 condenses upon the caldera floor every night, diurnal temperatures range each day by a factor of nearly 2, and annual average atmospheric pressure is only around one millibar. Here, we explore several possibilities that may explain the poor modeled fits to caldera floor and conclude that temperature dependent thermal conductivity may cause thermal inertia to vary diurnally, and this effect may be exaggerated by presence of water-ice clouds, which occur frequently above Arsia Mons.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Middle UV to near-IR spectrum of electron-excited SO 2

We investigated the electron impact–induced fluorescence spectrum of SO 2 to provide excitation cross sections for modeling Io's emission spectrum and analyzing Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem observations. The electron-excited middle-ultraviolet visible optical near-infrared (VOIR) emission spectrum of SO 2 gas was generated in the laboratory and studied from 2000 to 11,000 Å at a resolution of Δ λ ∼ 2.5 Å full width at half maximum (FWHM). The VOIR laboratory spectrum longward of 6000 Å consists entirely of S I, II and O I, II multiplets for electron impact energies above ∼15 eV. Between 2000 and 6000 Å, we find previously identified molecular bands from both SO and SO 2 . This work represents a significant improvement in spectral resolution over our earlier work done at 18 Å FWHM. From a measurement of the medium-resolution spectrum, we provide detailed 25- and 100-eV emission cross sections for spectral features from 2000 to 11,000 Å. On the basis of these data, we suggest future ground-based and satellite telescopic observations in the VOIR that are of promise for understanding Io's atmosphere.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Near-infrared spectral mapping of Titan's mountains and channels

We investigate the spectral reflectance properties of channels and mountain ranges on Titan using data from Cassini's Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) obtained during the T9 encounter (26 December 2005). We identify the location of channels and mountains using synthetic aperture radar maps obtained from Cassini's RADAR instrument during the T13 (30 April 2006) flyby. Channels are evident even in VIMS imaging with spatial resolution coarser than the channel size. The channels share spectral characteristics with Titan's dark blue terrain (e.g., the Huygens landing site) that is consistent with an enhancement in water ice content relative to the rest of Titan. We use this fact to measure widths of ???1 km for the largest channels. Comparison of the data sets shows that in our study area within the equatorial bright spectral unit east of Xanadu, mountains are darker and bluer than surrounding smooth terrain. These results are consistent with the equatorial bright terrain possessing a veneer of material that is thinner in the regions where there are mountains and streambeds that have likely undergone more recent and extensive erosion. We suggest a model for the geographic relationship of the dark blue, dark brown, and equatorial bright spectral units based on our findings.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Mars global digital dune database and initial science results

A new Mars Global Digital Dune Database (MGD 3 ) constructed using Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) infrared (IR) images provides a comprehensive and quantitative view of the geographic distribution of moderate‐ to large‐size dune fields (area >1 km 2 ) that will help researchers to understand global climatic and sedimentary processes that have shaped the surface of Mars. MGD 3 extends from 65°N to 65°S latitude and includes ∼550 dune fields, covering ∼70,000 km 2 , with an estimated total volume of ∼3,600 km 3 . This area, when combined with polar dune estimates, suggests moderate‐ to large‐size dune field coverage on Mars may total ∼800,000 km 2 , ∼6 times less than the total areal estimate of ∼5,000,000 km 2 for terrestrial dunes. Where availability and quality of THEMIS visible (VIS) or Mars Orbiter Camera narrow‐angle (MOC NA) images allow, we classify dunes and include dune slipface measurements, which are derived from gross dune morphology and represent the prevailing wind direction at the last time of significant dune modification. For dunes located within craters, the azimuth from crater centroid to dune field centroid (referred to as dune centroid azimuth) is calculated and can provide an accurate method for tracking dune migration within smooth‐floored craters. These indicators of wind direction are compared to output from a general circulation model (GCM). Dune centroid azimuth values generally correlate to regional wind patterns. Slipface orientations are less well correlated, suggesting that local topographic effects may play a larger role in dune orientation than regional winds.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Veneers, rinds, and fracture fills: Relatively late alteration of sedimentary rocks at Meridiani Planum, Mars

Veneers and thicker rinds that coat outcrop surfaces and partially cemented fracture fills formed perpendicular to bedding document relatively late stage alteration of ancient sedimentary rocks at Meridiani Planum, Mars. The chemistry of submillimeter thick, buff-colored veneers reflects multiple processes at work since the establishment of the current plains surface. Veneer composition is dominated by the mixing of silicate-rich dust and sulfate-rich outcrop surface, but it has also been influenced by mineral precipitation, including NaCl, and possibly by limited physical or chemical weathering of sulfate minerals. Competing processes of chemical alteration (perhaps mediated by thin films of water or water vapor beneath blanketing soils) and sandblasting of exposed outcrop surfaces determine the current distribution of veneers. Dark-toned rinds several millimeters thick reflect more extensive surface alteration but also indicate combined dust admixture, halite precipitation, and possible minor sulfate removal. Cemented fracture fills that are differentially resistant to erosion occur along the margins of linear fracture systems possibly related to impact. These appear to reflect limited groundwater activity along the margins of fractures, cementing mechanically introduced fill derived principally from outcrop rocks. The limited thickness and spatial distribution of these three features suggest that aqueous activity has been rare and transient or has operated at exceedingly low rates during the protracted interval since outcropping Meridiani strata were exposed on the plains surface.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Soil sedimentology at Gusev Crater from Columbia Memorial Station to Winter Haven

A total of 3140 individual particles were examined in 31 soils along Spirit's traverse. Their size, shape, and texture were quantified and classified. They represent a unique record of 3 years of sedimentologic exploration from landing to sol 1085 covering the Plains Unit to Winter Haven where Spirit spent the Martian winter of 2006. Samples in the Plains Unit and Columbia Hills appear as reflecting contrasting textural domains. One is heterogeneous, with a continuum of angular-to-round particles of fine sand to pebble sizes that are generally dust covered and locally cemented in place. The second shows the effect of a dominant and ongoing dynamic aeolian process that redistributes a uniform population of medium-size sand. The texture of particles observed in the samples at Gusev Crater results from volcanic, aeolian, impact, and water-related processes.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗