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USGS2022

A biological condition gradient for Caribbean coral reefs: Part II. Numeric rules using sessile benthic organisms

The Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is a conceptual model used to describe incremental changes in biological condition along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. As coral reefs collapse globally, scientists and managers are focused on how to sustain the crucial structure and functions, and the benefits that healthy coral reef ecosystems provide for many economies and societies. We developed a numeric (quantitative) BGC model for the coral reefs of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to transparently facilitate ecologically meaningful management decisions regarding these fragile resources. Here, reef conditions range from natural, undisturbed conditions to severely altered or degraded conditions. Numeric decision rules were developed by an expert panel for scleractinian corals and other benthic assemblages using multiple attributes to apply in shallow-water tropical fore reefs with depths <30 m. The numeric model employed decision rules based on metrics (e.g., % live coral cover, coral species richness, pollution-sensitive coral species, unproductive and sediment substrates, % cover by Orbicella spp.) used to assess coral reef condition. Model confirmation showed the numeric BCG model predicted the panel’s median site ratings for 84% of the sites used to calibrate the model and 89% of independent validation sites. The numeric BCG model is suitable for adaptive management applications and supports bioassessment and criteria development. It is a robust assessment tool that could be used to establish ecosystem condition that would aid resource managers in evaluating and communicating current or changing conditions, protect water and habitat quality in areas of high biological integrity, or develop restoration goals with stakeholders and other public beneficiaries.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2015

Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: river channel and floodplain geomorphic change

A substantial increase in fluvial sediment supply relative to transport capacity causes complex, large-magnitude changes in river and floodplain morphology downstream. Although sedimentary and geomorphic responses to sediment pulses are a fundamental part of landscape evolution, few opportunities exist to quantify those processes over field scales. We investigated the downstream effects of sediment released during the largest dam removal in history, on the Elwha River, Washington, USA, by measuring changes in riverbed elevation and topography, bed sediment grain size, and channel planform as two dams were removed in stages over two years. As 10.5 million t (7.1 million m 3 ) of sediment was released from two former reservoirs, downstream dispersion of a sediment wave caused widespread bed aggradation of ~ 1 m (greater where pools filled), changed the river from pool–riffle to braided morphology, and decreased the slope of the lowermost river. The newly deposited sediment, which was finer than most of the pre-dam-removal bed, formed new bars (largely pebble, granule, and sand material), prompting aggradational channel avulsion that increased the channel braiding index by almost 50%. As a result of mainstem bed aggradation, floodplain channels received flow and accumulated new sediment even during low to moderate flow conditions. The river system showed a two- to tenfold greater geomorphic response to dam removal (in terms of bed elevation change magnitude) than it had to a 40-year flood event four years before dam removal. Two years after dam removal began, as the river had started to incise through deposits of the initial sediment wave, ~ 1.2 million t of new sediment (~ 10% of the amount released from the two reservoirs) was stored along 18 river km of the mainstem channel and 25 km of floodplain channels. The Elwha River thus was able to transport most of the released sediment to the river mouth. The geomorphic alterations and changing bed sediment grain size along the Elwha River have important ecological implications, affecting aquatic habitat structure, benthic fauna, salmonid fish spawning and rearing potential, and riparian vegetation. The response of the river to dam removal represents a unique opportunity to observe and quantify fundamental geomorphic processes associated with a massive sediment influx, and also provides important lessons for future river-restoration endeavors.

Washington↗

USGS2009

LANDFIRE: A nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment

LANDFIRE is a 5-year, multipartner project producing consistent and comprehensive maps and data describing vegetation, wildland fuel, fire regimes and ecological departure from historical conditions across the United States. It is a shared project between the wildland fire management and research and development programs of the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and US Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE meets agency and partner needs for comprehensive, integrated data to support landscape-level fire management planning and prioritization, community and firefighter protection, effective resource allocation, and collaboration between agencies and the public. The LANDFIRE data production framework is interdisciplinary, science-based and fully repeatable, and integrates many geospatial technologies including biophysical gradient analyses, remote sensing, vegetation modelling, ecological simulation, and landscape disturbance and successional modelling. LANDFIRE data products are created as 30-m raster grids and are available over the internet at www.landfire.gov , accessed 22 April 2009. The data products are produced at scales that may be useful for prioritizing and planning individual hazardous fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration projects; however, the applicability of data products varies by location and specific use, and products may need to be adjusted by local users.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2014

Controls of vegetation structure and net primary production in restored grasslands

1. Vegetation structure and net primary production (NPP) are fundamental properties of ecosystems. Understanding how restoration practices following disturbance interact with environmental factors to control these properties can provide insight on how ecosystems recover and guide management efforts. 2. We assessed the relative contribution of environmental and restoration factors in controlling vegetation structure, above- and below-ground investment in production across a chronosequence of semiarid Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields recovering from dryland wheat cropping relative to undisturbed grassland. Importantly, we determined the role of plant diversity and how seeding either native or introduced perennial grasses influenced the recovery of vegetation properties. 3. Plant basal cover increased with field age and was highest in CRP fields seeded with native perennial grasses. In contrast, fields seeded with introduced perennial grasses had tall-growing plants with relatively low basal cover. These vegetation structural characteristics interacted with precipitation, but not soil characteristics, to influence above-ground NPP (ANPP). Fields enrolled in the CRP program for >7 years supported twice as much ANPP as undisturbed shortgrass steppe in the first wet year of the study, but all CRP fields converged on a common low amount of ANPP in the following dry year and invested less than half as much as the shortgrass steppe in below-ground biomass. 4. ANPP in CRP fields seeded with native perennial grasses for more than 7 years was positively related to species richness, whereas ANPP in CRP fields seeded with introduced perennial grasses were controlled more by dominant species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Seeding with introduced, instead of native, perennial grasses had a strong direct influence on vegetation structure, including species richness, which indirectly affected NPP through time. However, the effects of restoring either native or introduced grasses on NPP were secondary to low water availability. Therefore, restoration strategies that maximize basal cover and below-ground biomass, which promote water acquisition, may lead to high resilience in semiarid and arid regions.

Colorado↗

USGS2012

Introduction to emergent wetlands: Chapter A in Emergent wetlands status and trends in the northern Gulf of Mexico: 1950-2010

Throughout the past century, emergent wetlands have been declining across the Gulf of Mexico. Emergent wetland ecosystems provide a plethora of resources including plant and wildlife habitat, commercial and recreational economic activity, water quality improvement, and natural barriers against storms. As emergent wetland losses increase, so does the need for information on the causes and effects of these losses, for emergent wetland mapping, for monitoring and restoration efforts, and for increased education. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Gulf of Mexico Program Office (EPA GMPO) are committed to providing the best science to restore, enhance, and protect these important ecosystems. The Emergent Wetlands Status and Trends Report is a continuation of the completed Seagrass Status and Trends in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Report (Handley and others, 2007), both of which serve to update the EPA GMPO Status and Trends of Emergent and Submerged Vegetated Habitats of Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters, USA Report (Duke and Kruczynski, 1992). The Emergent Wetlands Status and Trends Report is also part of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Ecosystems Integration and Assessment Priority Issue Team’s work plan to provide resources that will aid in the ecological and economic enhancement of the Gulf of Mexico region. The purpose of this report is to provide scientists, managers, and citizens with valuable baseline information on the status and trends of emergent wetlands along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The study upon which this report is based examines the emergent wetlands of eight individual estuarine areas within the northern Gulf of Mexico region and presents statewide summaries for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Each estuarine area is detailed in vignettes that address current status and historical trends of estuarine and palustrine emergent wetlands, emergent wetlands mapping and monitoring, causes of status change, restoration and enhancement activities, background information for the study area, and the methodology employed to analyze and document the historical trends and current status of emergent wetlands. The eight individual estuarine areas examined in this report are:  Corpus Christi/ Nueces/Aransas Bays, Tex.  Galveston Bay, Tex.  Barataria/Terrebonne Bay, La.  Mississippi Delta, La.  Mississippi Sound, Miss.  Mobile Bay, Ala.  Florida Panhandle, Fla.  Tampa Bay, Fla.

Report↗

USGS2019

The unprecedented loss of Florida's reef-building corals and the emergence of a novel coral-reef assemblage

Over the last half century, climate change, coral disease, and other anthropogenic disturbances have restructured coral-reef ecosystems on a global scale. The disproportionate loss of once-dominant, reef-building taxa has facilitated relative increases in the abundance of “weedy” or stress-tolerant coral species. Although the recent transformation of coral-reef assemblages is unprecedented on ecological timescales, determining whether modern coral reefs have truly reached a novel ecosystem state requires evaluating the dynamics of reef composition over much longer periods of time. Here, we provide a geologic perspective on the shifting composition of Florida's reefs by reconstructing the millennial-scale spatial and temporal variability in reef assemblages using 59 Holocene reef cores collected throughout the Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). We then compare the relative abundances of reef-building species in the Holocene reef framework to data from contemporary reef surveys to determine how much Florida's modern reef assemblages have diverged from long-term baselines. We show that the composition of Florida's reefs was, until recently, remarkably stable over the last 8000 yr. The same corals that have dominated shallow-water reefs throughout the western Atlantic for hundreds of thousands of years, Acropora palmata , Orbicella spp., and other massive coral taxa, accounted for nearly 90% of Florida's Holocene reef framework. In contrast, the species that now have the highest relative abundances on the FKRT, primarily Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea , were rare in the reef framework, suggesting that recent shifts in species assemblages are unprecedented over millennial timescales. Although it may not be possible to return coral reefs to pre-Anthropocene states, our results suggest that coral-reef management focused on the conservation and restoration of the reef-building species of the past, will optimize efforts to preserve coral reefs, and the valuable ecosystem services they provide into the future.

Florida↗

USGS2017

The future of fish passage science, engineering, and practice

Much effort has been devoted to developing, constructing and refining fish passage facilities to enable target species to pass barriers on fluvial systems, and yet, fishway science, engineering and practice remain imperfect. In this review, 17 experts from different fish passage research fields (i.e., biology, ecology, physiology, ecohydraulics, engineering) and from different continents (i.e., North and South America, Europe, Africa, Australia) identified knowledge gaps and provided a roadmap for research priorities and technical developments. Once dominated by an engineering‐focused approach, fishway science today involves a wide range of disciplines from fish behaviour to socioeconomics to complex modelling of passage prioritization options in river networks. River barrier impacts on fish migration and dispersal are currently better understood than historically, but basic ecological knowledge underpinning the need for effective fish passage in many regions of the world, including in biodiversity hotspots (e.g., equatorial Africa, South‐East Asia), remains largely unknown. Designing efficient fishways, with minimal passage delay and post‐passage impacts, requires adaptive management and continued innovation. While the use of fishways in river restoration demands a transition towards fish passage at the community scale, advances in selective fishways are also needed to manage invasive fish colonization. Because of the erroneous view in some literature and communities of practice that fish passage is largely a proven technology, improved international collaboration, information sharing, method standardization and multidisciplinary training are needed. Further development of regional expertise is needed in South America, Asia and Africa where hydropower dams are currently being planned and constructed.

Fish and Fisheries↗

USGS2007

An Assessment of the Potential Effects of Aquifer Storage and Recovery on Mercury Cycling in South Florida

Mercury contamination in the environment is a global concern, especially in areas with abundant wetlands, such as south Florida. As the causal factors of this concern improve, scientists find that many factors that do not necessarily affect mercury concentrations, such as flooding and drying cycles, or changes to carbon and sulfate loading, can profoundly affect net mercury toxicity. Especially important are ecological factors that alter the conversion of mercury to methylmercury, which is the most bioaccumulative and toxic form of mercury in the environment. Resource managers, therefore, need to be aware of possible deleterious affects to mercury toxicity that could result from land and water management decisions. Several aspects of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), including the planned Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) program, have the potential to affect the abundance of methylmercury. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collaborated on a study to evaluate how the proposed ASR program may affect mercury cycling and toxicity. This project was conducted as an initial assessment of the possible effects of the CERP ASR program on mercury in the south Florida environment. A twofold approach was employed: field sampling and controlled laboratory benchmark experiments. The field sampling survey collected ground-water samples from the Floridan and surficial aquifer systems for the ASR program to determine existing levels of mercury and methylmercury. Laboratory experiments, on the other hand, were designed to determine how the injected surface water would interact with the aquifer during storage periods. Overall, very low levels of mercury and methylmercury (mean values of 0.41 and 0.07 nanograms per liter, respectively) were observed in ground-water samples collected from the Floridan and surficial aquifer systems. These results indicate that 'recovered water' from the CERP ASR program would not represent a significant additional direct load of mercury and methyl-mercury to ASR 'receiving waters'. Net production of methylmercury, however, can result from additions of sulfate or natural organic carbon. Thus, because the Upper Floridan aquifer generally has elevated concentrations of sulfate (relative to ambient Everglades conditions) and surface waters near Lake Okeechobee (the assumed target for ASR receiving waters) are elevated in organic carbon and sulfate, at least some potential for increased methylmercury production might arise from the release of recovered ASR water to locations in or near the Everglades.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Hydrology and water quality of a dune-and-swale wetland adjacent to the Grand Calumet River, Indiana, 2019–22

Adverse ecological and water-quality effects associated with industrial land-use changes are common for littoral wetlands connected to river mouth ecosystems in the Grand Calumet River-Indiana Harbor Canal Area of Concern. These effects can be exacerbated by recent high Lake Michigan water levels that are problematic for wetland restoration. Wetlands in the adjacent Clark and Pine Nature Preserve and Pine Station Nature Preserve are intended to mitigate wetland destruction in the area of concern by restoring residual dune-and-swale wetlands and preserving habitat for endangered and threatened plant species. Physical hydrology and water-quality monitoring of restored wetland cells at the preserves were initiated during 2019 to evaluate changes after wetland restoration efforts in 2015 and near record-low water levels in early 2013. Lake Michigan water levels rose steadily between late 2013 and 2018 to record-high water levels in 2019 and 2020. In this report, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and groundwater and surface-water levels are analyzed to better understand wetland inundation controls and flow directions in restored northern dune-and-swale wetland settings relative to the Grand Calumet River. Continuous specific conductance data and discrete water-quality samples were collected and analyzed to provide a synoptic view of water quality for the restored wetlands. High Lake Michigan water levels affected Grand Calumet River stage and shallow groundwater elevations in the study area after the onset of peak lake levels in June 2019, that persisted through summer 2020, before finally receding in September 2020. Grand Calumet River stage peaked soon after lake levels in July 2019, whereas groundwater elevations in the study area peaked in October 2019. Specific conductance values in closed-basin wetland cells in the western and central parts of the nature preserves indicated a dilution trend and contrasted those of interconnected wetland cells along an eastern corridor, where alterations to wetland cells were more pronounced. Monitoring results indicate that varying seasonal wetland inundation trends with low stands in autumn have returned after high water table conditions owing to high water levels on Lake Michigan. Wetland water balance results during the study period indicated that the wetland ecosystem partially moderated flooding during high lake levels through summer evapotranspiration.

Indiana↗

USGS2021

Landscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs in Midwest grasslands

Context It is estimated that over one billion milkweed stems need to be restored to sustain the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies; where and in what context the stems should be placed on the landscape is key to addressing habitat deficits. Objectives We assessed how the amount of appropriate habitat surrounding a particular patch of monarch habitat affects monarch presence and reproduction. To ensure that habitat restoration efforts are targeted towards areas that maximize monarch population growth, it is important to understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on monarch occurrence in habitat patches (i.e. grasslands with milkweeds) across the landscape. Methods Over two summers (2018–2019), we surveyed monarch adults, larvae, and eggs at sixty grassland sites in Wisconsin that varied in patch size and landscape context (proportion grassland, forest edge density, and road density). We also estimated milkweed density and floral richness to characterize local patch quality. Results Adult monarch abundance was highest at patches with the lowest proportion of surrounding grassland and lowest road density, and was heavily influenced by patch quality variables. Egg and larva density in a patch increased with milkweed density and floral richness within a patch. Patch size was unrelated to monarch abundance. Conclusions These results suggest that optimal sites for monarch habitat restoration are within landscapes which contain little habitat and that high milkweed density and floral richness and abundance should be conservation goals.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Urban stream restorations increase floodplain soil carbon and nutrient retention along a chronosequence

Stream restoration is a common management practice to meet regulatory or voluntary efforts to improve water quality via nutrient and carbon (C) retention, including in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. However, most restoration projects have few quantifiable measures of project success, no standard metrics, and rarely collect pre-restoration data. Storage of nutrients, such as phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), in floodplain soils of restored streams can act as an easily quantifiable indicator of restoration success, particularly when the project goals include improved water quality. To determine how floodplains of restored streams change in their P and C storage as time since restoration increases, floodplain surficial soil samples (10 cm depth) were collected from 18 streams in the urbanized Piedmont region of northern Virginia, representing a chronosequence of time (1–10+ yrs.) since restoration as well as unrestored streams with high impervious surface cover (ISC) and unrestored streams with low ISC. The samples were analyzed for total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) storage, whereas C turnover rate and equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC 0 ) were measured as metrics of C and P loss. These metrics were compared to time since restoration and potential environmental drivers, including soil moisture, pH, median particle size (D50), organic matter content (OM), and bioavailable P, iron (Fe), and aluminum (Al). These stream restorations demonstrated increasing nutrient storage for TC, TN, and TP along the chronosequence to values greater than both unrestored or reference streams, as well as decreasing C turnover and no significant changes in EPC 0 . Soil wetness and OM, key drivers in nutrient retention, also increased as restoration projects aged increasing C, N, and P storage. Overall, stream restoration did improve soil C, N, and P retention in floodplains as compared to unrestored sites and exceeded those of low ISC ‘reference’ sites.

Virginia↗

USGS2002

Fish mortality and physicochemistry in a managed floodplain wetland

Patterns of fish mortality and associated physicochemical factors were studied during late spring in a managed wetland canal along the lower Missouri River, Missouri. Mean dawn dissolved oxygen was lower and mean un-ionized ammonia and turbidity were higher during the fish kill than before or after the kill, or than was observed in a nearby wetland canal where no fish kill occurred. Dissolved oxygen at dawn and un-ionized ammonia concentrations were at critically low and high levels respectively, so that both likely contributed to the fish mortality. Timing and magnitude of observed carcasses suggested that Ameiurus melas Rafinesques was the most tolerant species for the sizes observed compared to Ictiobuscyprinellus Valenciennes, Lepomis macrochirus Rafinesque, Cyprinus carpio Linneaus, and Lepomis cyanellus Rafinesque. Decreasing mean lengths of fish carcasses during the fish kill for C.carpio, L. cyanellus , and A. melas , indicate that smaller fishes may have been more tolerant of harsh environmental conditions than larger individuals of the same species. Differential mortalities among species and sizes during drawdowns in actively managed wetland pools may have intentional and unintentional ramifications on wetland and riverine fish community structure, fish-avian interactions, and implementing an ecosystem management perspective to restoring more naturalized river floodplain wetland functions. Late summer and early autumn draining of managed wetlands might be used to benefit a wider diversity of wildlife and fishes.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

USGS2016

Controls on methane concentrations and fluxes in streams draining human-dominated landscapes

Streams and rivers are active processors of carbon, leading to significant emissions of CO 2 and possibly CH 4 to the atmosphere. Patterns and controls of CH 4 in fluvial ecosystems remain relatively poorly understood. Furthermore, little is known regarding how major human impacts to fluvial ecosystems may be transforming their role as CH 4 producers and emitters. Here, we examine the consequences of two distinct ecosystem changes as a result of human land use: increased nutrient loading (primarily as nitrate), and increased sediment loading and deposition of fine particles in the benthic zone. We did not find support for the hypothesis that enhanced nitrate loading down-regulates methane production via thermodynamic or toxic effects. We did find strong evidence that increased sedimentation and enhanced organic matter content of the benthos lead to greater methane production (diffusive + ebullitive flux) relative to pristine fluvial systems in northern Wisconsin (upper Midwest, USA). Overall, streams in a human-dominated landscape of southern Wisconsin were major regional sources of CH 4 to the atmosphere, equivalent to ~20% of dairy cattle emissions, or ~50% of a landfill’s annual emissions. We suggest that restoration of the benthic environment (reduced fine deposits) could lead to reduced CH 4 emissions, while decreasing nutrient loading is likely to have limited impacts to this ecosystem process.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Comparison of longitudinal stream temperature profiles and significant thermal features from airborne thermal infrared and float surveys of the Skykomish, Snoqualmie, and Middle Fork Snoqualmie Rivers, King and Snohomish Counties, Washington, summer 2020 and 2021

Summer water temperatures in the Skykomish, Snoqualmie, and Middle Fork Snoqualmie Rivers in western Washington have in recent decades exceeded the water temperature criteria for aquatic life uses set by the Washington Department of Ecology. This temperature increase is of particular concern because these rivers provide critical habitat for several salmonid populations, including Endangered Species Act-listed Chinook salmon ( Onchorhynchus tshawytscha ), steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ), and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), thus helping sustain Endangered Species Act-listed Southern Resident orcas ( Orcinus orca ). To inform salmonid restoration efforts within these rivers, this study used high-resolution thermal infrared (TIR) and three-band red, green, blue imagery acquired from repeated airborne surveys conducted in August 2020 and 2021 to (1) quantify longitudinal stream temperature profiles (LTPs) and (2) identify and characterize significant thermal features (STFs), including cold-water anomalies that could represent thermal refuges and serve as salmonid habitat. In addition, drag-probe water temperature surveys (“float surveys”) were performed on the Skykomish and Middle Fork Snoqualmie Rivers during August–September 2020 and on a segment of the Middle Fork Snoqualmie River in August 2021. These float surveys were intended to evaluate this thermal profiling method in comparison to airborne TIR surveys, by employing a novel method of processing float survey data to adjust for diurnal heating. The Middle Fork Snoqualmie River warmed about 7 degrees Celsius (°C) from upstream to downstream in the 2020 airborne TIR survey and 9 °C in the 2021 airborne TIR survey, and the Snoqualmie River warmed about 4 °C in both surveys. The water temperature of the Skykomish River cooled in the 2020 and 2021 surveys, primarily because of cold inflow from the Sultan River. The overall shapes of airborne TIR LTPs of the same river were similar in the 2020 and 2021 surveys, with increasing and decreasing gradients in temperature tending to be nearly parallel over the same reaches and abrupt changes in temperature typically identified at the same locations. A total of 854 STFs were identified in the 2020 TIR imagery, and 732 STFs were identified in the 2021 TIR imagery. Interannual persistence was detected in 36.4 to 61.3 percent of lateral groundwater, side channel, and small tributary STFs, depending on the river surveyed, and in 14.8 to 28.7 percent of hyporheic and diffuse groundwater STFs. Hyporheic flow was commonly detected at the downstream end of a riffle, but not often detected directly downstream from large woody debris. Shade from riparian vegetation did not reduce water temperatures but rather maintained the water temperature recorded just upstream from the shaded section. The adjusted average water temperature profiles from the float surveys were comparable to the LTPs derived from the airborne TIR surveys, with differences in temperature gradient primarily because the surveys were performed under different streamflow, radiation, and shading conditions. Though float surveys were found to be a valuable means of obtaining thermal profiles comparable to profiles obtained by airborne TIR surveys, one key advantage of airborne TIR surveys is that they may be used to precisely locate STFs over long distances, during a short survey duration, and in areas inaccessible to most watercraft.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Advancing estuarine ecological forecasts: Seasonal hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement uncertainty through a flexible Bayesian hierarchical framework. Results illustrate the benefits of (1) adopting forecast metrics and drivers that strike an optimal balance between predictability and relevance to management, (2) incorporating multiple data sources in the calibration data set to separate and propagate different sources of uncertainty, and (3) using the model in scenario mode to probabilistically evaluate the effects of alternative management decisions on future ecosystem state. In the Chesapeake Bay, the subject of this case study, we find that average summer or total annual hypoxia metrics are more predictable than monthly metrics and that measurement error represents an important source of uncertainty. Application of the model in scenario mode suggests that absent watershed management actions over the past decades, long-term average hypoxia would have increased by 7% compared to 1985. Conversely, the model projects that if management goals currently in place to restore the Bay are met, long-term average hypoxia would eventually decrease by 32% with respect to the mid-1980s.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2008

The human footprint in the west: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts.

Anthropogenic features such as urbanization, roads, and power lines, are increasing in western United States landscapes in response to rapidly growing human populations. However, their spatial effects have not been evaluated. Our goal was to model the human footprint across the western United States. We first delineated the actual area occupied by anthropogenic features, the physical effect area. Next, we developed the human footprint model based on the ecological effect area, the zone influenced by features beyond their physical presence, by combining seven input models: three models quantified top-down anthropogenic influences of synanthropic predators (avian predators, domestic dog and cat presence risk), and four models quantified bottom-up anthropogenic influences on habitat (invasion of exotic plants, human-caused fires, energy extraction, and anthropogenic wildland fragmentation). Using independent bird population data, we found bird abundance of four synanthropic species to correlate positively with human footprint intensity and negatively for three of the six species influenced by habitat fragmentation. We then evaluated the extent of the human footprint in relation to terrestrial (ecoregions) and aquatic systems (major rivers and lakes), regional management and conservation status, physical environment, and temporal changes in human actions. The physical effect area of anthropogenic features covered 13% of the western United States with agricultural land (9.8%) being most dominant. High-intensity human footprint areas (class 8 – 10) overlapped highly productive low-elevation private landholdings and covered 7% of the western United States compared to 48% for low-intensity areas (class 1 – 3), which were confined to low-productivity high-elevation federal landholdings. Areas within 1 km of rivers were more affected by the human footprint compared to lakes. Percentage human population growth was higher in low-intensity human footprint areas. The disproportional regional effects of the human footprint on landscapes in the western United States create a challenge to management of ecosystems and wildlife populations. Using footprint models, managers can plan land use actions, develop restoration scenarios, and identify areas of high conservation value at local landscapes within a regional context. Moreover, human footprint models serve as a tool to stratify landscapes for studies investigating floral and faunal response to human disturbance intensity gradients.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2023

Stress gradients structure spatial variability in coastal tidal marsh plant composition and diversity in a major Pacific coast estuary

Understanding the drivers of variability in plant diversity from local to landscape spatial scales is a challenge in ecological systems. Environmental gradients exist at several spatial scales and can be nested hierarchically, influencing patterns of plant diversity in complex ways. As plant community dynamics influence ecosystem function, understanding the drivers of plant community variability across space is paramount for predicting potential shifts in ecosystem function from global change. Determining the scales at which stress gradients influence vegetation composition is crucial to inform management and restoration of tidal marshes for specific functions. Here, we analyzed vegetation community composition in 51 tidal marshes from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA. We used model-based compositional analysis and rank abundance curves to quantify environmental (elevation/tidal frame position, distance to channel, and channel salinity) and species trait (species form, wetland indicator status, and native status) influences on plant community variability at the marsh site and estuary scales. While environmental impacts on plant diversity varied by species and their relationships to each other, overall impacts increased in strength from marsh to estuary scales. Relative species abundance was important in structuring these tidal marsh communities even with the limited species pools dominated by a few species. Rank abundance curves revealed different community structures by region with higher species evenness at plots higher in the tidal frame and adjacent to freshwater channels. By identifying interactions (species–species, species–environment, and environment–trait) at multiple scales (local, landscape), we begin to understand how variability measurements could be interpreted for conservation and land management decisions.

California↗