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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Diel biogeochemical processes and their effect on the aqueous chemistry of streams: A review

This review summarizes biogeochemical processes that operate on diel, or 24-h, time scales in streams and the changes in aqueous chemistry that are associated with these processes. Some biogeochemical processes, such as those producing diel cycles of dissolved O 2 and pH, were the first to be studied, whereas processes producing diel concentration cycles of a broader spectrum of chemical species including dissolved gases, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, trace elements, nutrients, stable isotopes, and suspended particles have received attention only more recently. Diel biogeochemical cycles are interrelated because the cyclical variations produced by one biogeochemical process commonly affect another. Thus, understanding biogeochemical cycling is essential not only for guiding collection and interpretation of water-quality data but also for geochemical and ecological studies of streams. Expanded knowledge of diel biogeochemical cycling will improve understanding of how natural aquatic environments function and thus lead to better predictions of how stream ecosystems might react to changing conditions of contaminant loading, eutrophication, climate change, drought, industrialization, development, and other factors.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2024

Mast seeding in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is associated with reduced fungal sporocarp production and community diversity

Mast seeding is a well-documented phenomenon across diverse forest ecosystems. While its effect on aboveground food webs has been thoroughly studied, how it impacts the soil fungi that drive soil carbon and nutrient cycling has not yet been explored. To evaluate the relationship between mast seeding and fungal resource availability, we paired a Swiss 29-year fungal sporocarp census with contemporaneous seed production for European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.). On average, mast seeding was associated with a 55% reduction in sporocarp production and a compositional community shift towards drought-tolerant taxa across both ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds. Among ectomycorrhizal fungi, traits associated with carbon cost did not explain species' sensitivity to seed production. Together, our results support a novel hypothesis that mast seeding limits annual resource availability and reproductive investment in soil fungi, creating an ecosystem ‘rhythm’ to forest processes that is synchronized above- and belowground.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2020

Exploring overlap of feather molting and migration in Tundra Swans using δ2H analysis

Determining the processes that shape the relative timing of energetically-costly events in the annual cycle of migrating birds is important to our understanding of avian phenology and ecology. We paired satellite tracking and hydrogen stable isotope analysis (δ 2 H) to examine the relative timing of two such events – migration and feather molting – in tundra swans from four breeding areas in Alaska, USA. Our results show a trend of increasing intra-individual variability in breast feather δ 2 H values with increasing migration distance, suggesting the overlap of breast feather molting and migration. However, when individual samples were pooled by breeding area, the δ 2 H values of breast and head feathers showed no trend with migration distance, presumably resulting from high levels of inter-individual variability in δ 2 H values within each breeding area. We explore potential reasons for this variability, propose potential mechanisms influencing feather δ 2 H values of tundra swans, and recommend further research into methods for exploring the temporal configuration of events in the annual cycle of migrating birds.

Alaska↗
USGS1997

Estimating temporary emigration using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

Statistical inference for capture–recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration: completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly–Seber estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach to robust design data. Capture–recapture data arising from Pollock’s robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration. Two of these should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small-mammal capture–recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Ecology↗
USGS2006

This dynamic planet: World map of volcanoes, earthquakes, impact craters and plate tectonics

Our Earth is a dynamic planet, as clearly illustrated on the main map by its topography, over 1500 volcanoes, 44,000 earthquakes, and 170 impact craters. These features largely reflect the movements of Earth's major tectonic plates and many smaller plates or fragments of plates (including microplates). Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are awe-inspiring displays of the powerful forces of nature and can be extraordinarily destructive. On average, about 60 of Earth's 550 historically active volcanoes are in eruption each year. In 2004 alone, over 160 earthquakes were magnitude 6.0 or above, some of which caused casualties and substantial damage. This map shows many of the features that have shaped--and continue to change--our dynamic planet. Most new crust forms at ocean ridge crests, is carried slowly away by plate movement, and is ultimately recycled deep into the earth--causing earthquakes and volcanism along the boundaries between moving tectonic plates. Oceans are continually opening (e.g., Red Sea, Atlantic) or closing (e.g., Mediterranean). Because continental crust is thicker and less dense than thinner, younger oceanic crust, most does not sink deep enough to be recycled, and remains largely preserved on land. Consequently, most continental bedrock is far older than the oldest oceanic bedrock. (see back of map) The earthquakes and volcanoes that mark plate boundaries are clearly shown on this map, as are craters made by impacts of extraterrestrial objects that punctuate Earth's history, some causing catastrophic ecological changes. Over geologic time, continuing plate movements, together with relentless erosion and redeposition of material, mask or obliterate traces of earlier plate-tectonic or impact processes, making the older chapters of Earth's 4,500-million-year history increasingly difficult to read. The recent activity shown on this map provides only a present-day snapshot of Earth's long history, helping to illustrate how its present surface came to be. The map is designed to show the most prominent features when viewed from a distance, and more detailed features upon closer inspection. The back of the map zooms in further, highlighting examples of fundamental features, while providing text, timelines, references, and other resources to enhance understanding of this dynamic planet. Both the front and back of this map illustrate the enormous recent growth in our knowledge of planet Earth. Yet, much remains unknown, particularly about the processes operating below the ever-shifting plates and the detailed geological history during all but the most recent stage of Earth's development.

IMAP↗
USGS2000

Geochemistry of sulfur in the Florida Everglades: 1994 through 1999

In this report, we present data on the geochemistry of sulfur in sediments and in surface water, groundwater, and rainwater in the Everglades region in south Florida. The results presented here are part of a larger study intended to determine the roles played by the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur in the ecology of the south Florida wetlands. The geochemistry of sulfur in the region is particularly important because of its link to the production of toxic methylmercury through processes mediated by sulfate reducing bacteria. Sediment cores were collected from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA), Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) 1A and 2A, from Lake Okeechobee, and from Taylor Slough in the southern Everglades. Water collection was more widespread and includes surface water from WCAs 1A, 2A, 3A, 2B, the EAA, Taylor Slough, Lake Okeechobee, and the Kissimmee River. Groundwater was collected from The Everglades Nutrient Removal Area (ENR) and from WCA 2A. Rainwater was collected at two month intervals over a period of one year from the ENR and from WCA 2A. Water was analyzed for sulfate concentration and sulfate sulfur stable isotopic ratio (34S/32S). Sediment cores were analyzed for total sulfur concentration and/or for concentrations of sulfur species (sulfate, organic sulfur, disulfides, and acid volatile sulfides (AVS)) and for their stable sulfur isotopic ratio. Results show a decrease in total sulfur content (1.57 to 0.61 percent dry weight) with depth in two sediment cores collected in WCA 2A, indicating that there has been an increase in total sulfur content in recent times. A sediment core from the center of Lake Okeechobee shows a decrease in total sulfur content with depth (0.28 to 0.08 percent dry weight). A core from the periphery of the lake (South Bay) likewise shows a decrease in total sulfur content with depth (1.00 to 0.69 percent dry weight), however, the overall sulfur content is greater than that near the center at all depths. This suggests input of sulfur in recent times, especially near the lake margins. Sediments show a general decrease in sulfur concentration with depth, probably because of increases in sulfur input to the marshes in recent times. Regional differences in the concentrations and stable isotopic ratios of sulfate sulfur in surface water show that sulfur contamination to the northern Everglades likely originates from canals draining the EAA.

Florida↗
USGS2000

Use of risk assessment to evaluate effects and plan remediation of abandoned mines

A framework of risk assessment is elaborated for the evaluation of the effects of abandoned mines and mills. Steps in this process include environmental description, identification and characterization of sources, assessment of exposure, assessment of effects, risk characterization, and risk management of remediation. The development and use of ecological end-points for remediation is discussed in terms of the chemical constituents, toxicity tests and the biological community.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

An integrative paradigm for building causal knowledge

A core aspiration of the ecological sciences is to determine how systems work, which implies the challenge of developing a causal understanding. Causal inference has long been approached from a statistical perspective, which can be limited and restrictive for a variety of reasons. Ecologists and other natural scientists have historically pursued mechanistic knowledge as an alternative approach to causal understanding, though without explicit reference to the requirements of causal statistics. In this paper, I describe the premises of an expanded paradigm for causal studies, the Integrative Causal Investigation Paradigm, that subsumes causal statistics and mechanistic investigation into a multi-evidence approach. This paradigm is distinct from the one articulated by causal statistics in that it (1) focuses its attention on the long-term goal of building causal knowledge across multiple studies and (2) recognizes the essential role of mechanistic investigations in establishing a causal understanding. The Integrative Paradigm, consequentially, proposes that there are multiple methodological routes to building causal knowledge and thus represents a pluralistic perspective. This paper begins by describing the crux of the problem faced by causal statistics. To understand this problem, it should be recognized that the word causal has multiple meanings and a variety of evidential standards. An expanded vocabulary is developed so as to reduce ambiguities and clarify critical issues. I further show by example that there is an important ingredient typically omitted from consideration in causal statistics, which is the known information related to the mechanisms underlying relationships being evaluated. To address this issue, I describe a procedure, Causal Knowledge Analysis, that involves an evaluation and compilation of existing evidence indicative of causal content and the features of mechanisms. Causal Knowledge Analysis is applied to three example situations to illustrate the process and its potential for contributing to the development of causal knowledge. The implications of adopting the proposed paradigm and associated procedures are discussed and include the potential for advancing ecology, the potential for clarifying causal methodology, and the potential for contributing to predictive forecasting.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2013

Conceptualizing and communicating ecological river restoration

We present a general conceptual model for communicating aspects of river restoration and management. The model is generic and adaptable to most riverine settings, independent of size. The model has separate categories of natural and social-economic drivers, and management actions are envisioned as modifiers of naturally dynamic systems. The model includes a decision-making structure in which managers, stakeholders, and scientists interact to define management objectives and performance evaluation. The model depicts a stress to the riverine ecosystem as either (1) deviation in the regimes (flow, sediment, temperature, light, biogeochemical, and genetic) by altering the frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, or rate of change of the fluxes or (2) imposition of a hard structural constraint on channel form. Restoration is depicted as naturalization of those regimes or removal of the constraint. The model recognizes the importance of river history in conditioning future responses. Three hierarchical tiers of essential ecosystem characteristics (EECs) illustrate how management actions typically propagate through physical/chemical processes to habitat to biotic responses. Uncertainty and expense in modeling or measuring responses increase in moving from tiers 1 to 3. Social-economic characteristics are shown in a parallel structure that emphasizes the need to quantify trade-offs between ecological and social-economic systems. Performance measures for EECs are also hierarchical, showing that selection of measures depend on participants’ willingness to accept uncertainty. The general form is of an adaptive management loop in which the performance measures are compared to reference conditions or success criteria and the information is fed back into the decision-making process.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats

Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have led to the exploration and exploitation of shale oil and gas both nationally and internationally. Extensive development of shale resources has occurred within the United States over the past decade, yet full build out is not expected to occur for years. Moreover, countries across the globe have large shale resources and are beginning to explore extraction of these resources. Extraction of shale resources is a multistep process that includes site identification, well pad and infrastructure development, well drilling, high-volume hydraulic fracturing and production; each with its own propensity to affect associated ecosystems. Some potential effects, for example from well pad, road and pipeline development, will likely be similar to other anthropogenic activities like conventional gas drilling, land clearing, exurban and agricultural development and surface mining (e.g., habitat fragmentation and sedimentation). Therefore, we can use the large body of literature available on the ecological effects of these activities to estimate potential effects from shale development on nearby ecosystems. However, other effects, such as accidental release of wastewaters, are novel to the shale gas extraction process making it harder to predict potential outcomes. Here, we review current knowledge of the effects of high-volume hydraulic fracturing coupled with horizontal drilling on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the contiguous United States, an area that includes 20 shale plays many of which have experienced extensive development over the past decade. We conclude that species and habitats most at risk are ones where there is an extensive overlap between a species range or habitat type and one of the shale plays (leading to high vulnerability) coupled with intrinsic characteristics such as limited range, small population size, specialized habitat requirements, and high sensitivity to disturbance. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2019

Designing flows to enhance ecosystem functioning in heavily altered rivers

More than a century of dam construction and water development in the western United States has led to extensive ecological alteration of rivers. Growing interest in improving river function is compelling practitioners to consider ecological restoration when managing dams and water extraction. We developed an Ecological Response Model (ERM) for the Cache la Poudre River, northern Colorado, USA, to illuminate effects of current and possible future water management and climate change. We used empirical data and modeled interactions among multiple ecosystem components to capture system-wide insights not possible with the unintegrated models commonly used in environmental assessments. The ERM results showed additional flow regime modification would further alter the structure and function of Poudre River aquatic and riparian ecosystems due to multiple and interacting stressors. Model predictions illustrated that specific peak flow magnitudes in spring and early summer are critical for substrate mobilization, dynamic channel morphology, and overbank flows, with strong subsequent effects on instream and riparian biota that varied seasonally and spatially, allowing exploration of nuanced management scenarios. Instream biological indicators benefitted from higher and more stable base flows and high peak flows, but stable base flows with low peak flows were only half as effective to increase indicators. Improving base flows while reducing peak flows, as currently proposed for the Cache la Poudre River, would further reduce ecosystem function. Modeling showed that even presently depleted annual flow volumes can achieve substantially different ecological outcomes in designed flow scenarios, while still supporting social demands. Model predictions demonstrated that implementing designed flows in a natural pattern, with attention to base and peak flows, may be needed to preserve or improve ecosystem function of the Poudre River. Improved regulatory policies would include preservation of ecosystem-level, flow-related processes and adaptive management when water development projects are considered.

Colorado↗
USGS1980

The comparison of usage and availability measurements for evaluating resource preference

Modern ecological research often involves the comparison of the usage of habitat types or food items to the availability of those resources to the animal. Widely used methods of determining preference from measurements of usage and availability depend critically on the array of components that the researcher, often with a degree of arbitrariness, deems available to the animal. This paper proposes a new method, based on ranks of components by usage and by availability. A virtue of the rank procedure is that it provides comparable results whether a questionable component is included or excluded from consideration. Statistical tests of significance are given for the method. The paper also offers a hierarchical ordering of selection processes. This hierarchy resolves certain inconsistencies among studies of selection and is compatible with the analytic technique offered in this paper.

Ecology↗
USGS2020

Building adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change

Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development, and climate change and other stressors are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient in the face of such disturbances. We sought to identify potential ways in which local conservation interests in the Lowcountry of South Carolina (USA) could participate in a social process of adaptation planning, and how that process might ultimately be broadened to engage a more diverse set of partners. We engaged participants through a combination of informal meetings, workshops, and other collaborative interactions to explore how the conservation community perceives and pursues its various missions, and how that community might confront the threats and opportunities in its future. Coproduction of knowledge and meaning were facilitated by collaborative scenario planning and strategic planning evaluation, which illuminated how the conservation community is integral to the broader governance of the region and highlighted how responses to forces of change are mediated through local culture, economics, and politics. We suggest an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objectives of both social and ecological systems might be prioritized in tandem, rather than narrowly focusing on environmental protection without consideration of the social landscape. Ultimately, adaptive capacity depends on the ability to act collectively, and social capital, trust, and organization greatly influence the capacity to act. Thus, we conclude that the presence of strong social networks, coordination and deliberation among diverse stakeholders, mechanisms for experiential feedback, and emphasis on social learning are key elements needed to build adaptive capacity. Central to the evolving perspective of governance of the commons is recognition that social and ecological systems are coupled; the issues and problems of one cannot be addressed without considering the consequences for the other. Moreover, a dominant theme emerging from our research and that of other scholars is the importance of culture and place attachment, which generates social cohesion and facilitates problem solving. These ideas have important implications for when, where, and how stakeholders are engaged to address the rapid changes being experienced by social-ecological systems.

South Carolina↗
USGS2018

Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment—Volume II. Species and assemblages

The Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative. The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) is to compile and synthesize regional datasets to facilitate evaluation of the cumulative effects of change agents on priority ecological communities and species. In particular, the REAs identify and map the distribution of communities and wildlife habitats at broad spatial extents and provide assessments of ecological conditions. The REAs also identify where and to what degree ecological resources are currently at risk from change agents, such as development, fire, invasive species, and climate change. The REAs can help managers identify and prioritize potential areas for conservation or restoration, assess cumulative effects as required by the National Environmental Policy Act, and inform landscape-level planning and management decisions for multiple uses of public lands. Management questions form the basis for the REA framework and were developed in conjunction with the BLM and other stakeholders. Conservation elements are communities and species that are of regional management concern. Core management questions relate to the key ecological attributes and change agents associated with each conservation element. Integrated management questions synthesize the results of the primary core management questions into overall landscape-level ranks for each conservation element. The ecological communities evaluated as conservation elements are shortgrass, mixed-grass, and sand prairies; all grasslands; riparian and nonplaya wetlands; playa wetlands and saline lakes; and prairie streams and rivers. Species and species assemblages evaluated are the freshwater mussel assemblage, Arkansas River shiner ( Notropis girardi ), ferruginous hawk ( Buteo regalis ), lesser prairie chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ), snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), mountain plover ( Charadrius montanus ), long-billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), interior least tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos ), burrowing owl ( Athene cunicularia ), black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ), bat assemblage, swift fox ( Vulpes velox ), and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ). The Southern Great Plains REA is summarized in a series of three reports and associated datasets. The pre-assessment report (available online at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151003 ) summarizes the process used by the REA stakeholders to select management questions, conservation elements, and change agents. It also provides background information for each conservation element. Volume I of the Southern Great Plains REA report addresses the ecological communities (available online at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171100 ). Volume II (this volume) addresses the species and species assemblages. All source and derived datasets used to produce the maps and graphs for REAs are available online at the BLM Landscape Approach Data Portal ( https://landscape.blm.gov/geoportal/catalog/REAs/REAs.page ).

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, ↗
USGS2008

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

New Jersey↗
USGS2021

Forest thinning in the seaward fringe speeds up surface elevation increment and carbon accumulation in managed mangrove forests

Mangroves are significant carbon (C) sinks and ecological engineers as they accumulate sediments and increase soil surface elevation. Thus, the forest management practice of thinning may not only alter forest structure, but also facilitate new biogeomorphological processes that affect soil development. Thinning may create additional opportunity for understorey species, such as the light-demanding Acanthus ilicifolius , to become a more prominent vegetation component of mangroves, which may further alter soil surface elevation trajectories. Forest structure and soil surface elevation change (SEC) were monitored along transects from the landward edge (upper intertidal) to seaward fringe before and after thinning of non-native Sonneratia apetala plantations along the seaward edge of a mangrove site in China. Soil C accumulation was also evaluated. Acanthus individuals colonized the forest gaps created by Sonneratia thinning in the seaward forest edge of the intertidal zones. In the absence of other pioneer species or other mangrove propagules/seeds, Acanthus pioneers occupied the areas rapidly (from 33.6 to 72.6 stems/m 2 ), and were successful opportunists. Newly colonizing Acanthus vegetation significantly increased SEC from 25.1 mm/year before Sonneratia was thinned to 46.5 mm/year after thinning-induced Acanthus occupation. Furthermore, Acanthus occupation enhanced soil C accumulation at the seaward edge to 49.9 MgC ha −1 year −1 ; a rate twofold higher than in the Sonneratia plantation before thinning. Synthesis and applications . Prolific Acanthus growth formed small elevation mounds on the seaward forest edge, which was suspected as a positive effect induced by thinning Sonneratia plantations that further facilitated colonization of Acanthus clones. Thinning non-native Sonneratia disturbed the established zonation, altered SEC, and is facilitating further succession of these mangrove forests into un-occupied aquatic areas. Higher elevations created by Acanthus expansion (vertically and horizontally) may further promote a greater percentage of landward edge mangrove species to colonize at these more favourable intertidal elevations yielding at least short-term gains in soil carbon accumulation by altering ecosystem function. Silvicultural activity should consider unintended influences on sedimentation patterns both in situ and in adjacent habitats in tidal forests, where small elevation changes affect mangrove species habitat preferences.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

Coupling validation effort with in situ bioacoustic data improves estimating relative activity and occupancy for multiple species with cross-species misclassifications

The increasing complexity and pace of ecological change requires natural resource managers to consider entire species assemblages. Acoustic recording units (ARUs) require minimal cost and effort to deploy and inform relative activity, or encounter rates, for multiple species simultaneously. ARU-based surveys require post-processing of the recordings via software algorithms that assign a species label to each recording. The automated classification process can result in cross-species misidentifications that should be accounted for when employing statistical modelling for conservation decision-making. Using simulation and ARU-based detection counts from 17 bat species in British Columbia, Canada, we investigate three strategies for adjusting statistical inference for species misclassification: (a) ‘coupling’ ambiguous and unambiguous detections by validating a subset of survey events post-hoc, (b) using a calibration dataset on the software algorithm's (in)accuracy for species identification or (c) specifying informative Bayesian priors on classification probabilities. We explore the impact of different Bayesian prior specifications for the classification probabilities on posterior estimation. We then consider how the quantity of data validated post-hoc impacts model convergence and resulting inferences for bat species relative activity as related to nightly conditions and yearly site occupancy after accounting for site-level environmental variables. Coupled methods resulted in less bias and uncertainty when estimating relative activity and species classification probabilities relative to calibration approaches. We found that species that were difficult-to-detect and those that were often inaccurately identified by the software required more validation effort than more easily detected and/or identified species. Our results suggest that, when possible, acoustic surveys should rely on coupled validated detection information to account for false-positive detections, rather than uncoupled calibration datasets. However, if the assemblage of interest contains a large number of rarely detected or less prevalent species, an intractable amount of effort may be required, suggesting there are benefits to curating a calibration dataset that is representative of the observation process. Our findings provide insights into the practical challenges associated with statistical analyses of ARU data and possible analytical solutions to support reliable and cost-effective decision-making for wildlife conservation/management in the face of known sources of observation errors.

British Columbia↗
USGS2022

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata . We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

New Hampshire↗