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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

Context Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. Objectives We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats. Methods We compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling. Results Blackpoll warbler ( Setophaga striata ), wood thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), and Louisiana ( Parkesia motacilla ) and northern waterthrush ( P. noveboracensis ) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapilla ), blackburnian ( Setophaga fusca ) and cerulean warbler ( Setophaga cerulea )], as all were positively related to occupancy data. Conclusions LC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2015

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series: Admiralty Inlet

In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the Puget Sound Estuary's environment by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded by the Assistance Program request for proposals process, which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues. The issues include the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature (Van Cleve and others, 2009), which endorses a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and recommendations for action. This publication is the first of four U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Maps that make up the Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project. The remaining three map blocks to be published in the future, located south of Admiralty Inlet, are shown in figure 1. Puget Sound is a deep, fjord-type estuary covering an area of 2,330 km 2 in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (fig. 1). It is connected to the ocean by the Strait of Juan de Fuca, a turbulent passage approximately 160 km in length and 22 km wide at its west end, expanding to over 40 km wide at its east end (Thomson, 1994). During the Pleistocene, the area was occupied several times by lobes of continental ice, resulting in a complex basin-fill of glacial and interglacial deposits that are locally as thick as 1100 m (Johnson and others, 2001). The last glaciation, called the Fraser glaciation, began after 28,800±740 14 C yr B.P. when ice started a slow expansion (Clague, 1981). At peak advance the westward Juan de Fuca lobe reached the edge of the continental shelf through the Juan de Fuca Strait shortly before 14,460±200 14 C yr B.P. (Herzer and Bornhold, 1982). The southward Puget lobe advanced to its terminal position in Puget Sound by around 14,150 14 C yr B.P. (Porter and Swanson, 1998). Ice retreated from its maximum to northern Whidbey Island by 13,650±350 14 C yr B.P. (Dethier and others, 1995). Retreating glaciers resulted in a thick sequence of ice-contact, glacial-marine sediment, and early post-glacial sediments (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). These deposits have experienced the effects of a marine transgression followed by regression, resulting in a sea-level several tens of meters lower than the present day (Linden and Schurrer, 1988). A second transgression brought sea level to about the present level by around 5,470±120 14 C yr B.P. (Clague and others, 1982) establishing the present oceanographic and geologic environment Puget Sound is separated into four interconnected basins; Whidbey, Central (Main), Hood Canal, and South (Thomson, 1994). The Whidbey, Central, and Hood Canal basins are the three main branches of the Puget Sound estuary and are separated from the Strait of Juan de Fuca by a double sill at Admiralty Inlet. The Admiralty Inlet map area includes the Inlet and a portion of the Whidbey Basin (fig. 1). The shallower South Basin is separated by a sill at Tacoma Narrows and is highly branched with numerous finger inlets. Flow within Puget Sound is dominated by tidal currents of as much as 1 m/s at Admiralty Inlet, reducing to approximately 0.5 m/s in the Central Basin (Lavelle and others, 1988). The lack of silt and clay-sized sediments in the Admiralty Inlet map area is likely a result of the strong currents (see Ground-Truth Studies for the Admiralty Inlet Map Area, sheet 3). The subtidal component of flow reaches approximately 0.1 m/s and is driven by density gradients arising from the contrast in salty ocean water at the entrance and freshwater inputs from stream flow (Lavelle and others, 1988). The total freshwater input to Puget Sound is approximately 3.4 x 10 6 m 3 /day, primarily from the Skagit River (Cannon, 1983). The subtidal circulation mostly consists of a two-layered flow in the basins with fresher water exiting at the surface and saltier water entering at depth (Ebbesmeyer and Cannon, 2001). In general, surface waters flow north and deeper waters flow south; variations arise from wind effects that can drive a surface current in the same direction as the wind, and a baroclinic response in the lower layer to about 100-m depth (Matsuura and Cannon, 1997). Oceanographic properties are influenced by temporal forcing parameters such as reduced stream flow during the 2000-01 drought that increased surface salinity and decreased differences between surface and bottom waters (Newton and others, 2003). On offshore seismic-reflection profiles, Pleistocene strata (excluding latest Pleistocene glacial and post-glacial deposits) form a distinct seismic unit, bounded below by pre-Tertiary or Tertiary basement and above by typically flat-lying latest Pleistocene to Holocene deposits that fill in erosional or depositional relief (Johnson and others, 2001). Cores from central Puget Sound have accumulation rates that range from 85 to 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr, or 0.12 to 2.4 cm/yr; the highest accumulation rates are near the southern end of central Puget Sound (Carpenter and others, 1985). Carpenter and others (1985) un-weighted arithmetic mean of accumulation rates for central Puget Sound deeper stations is 480±340 (± one standard deviation) mg/cm 2 /yr. Lavelle and others (1985) also found rates as high as 1200 mg/cm 2 /yr over the past approximately 70 years in cores in the Central Basin off of and north and south of Elliott Bay. Puget Sound basin rates are comparable to rates in midshelf silt deposits on the Washington coast north of the Columbia River (Nittrouer and others, 1979). The deep subtidal (in other words, below SCUBA depths) habitats of Puget Sound are relatively poorly known. A few subtidal surveys exist for several habitat types from the 1960s and 1970s (reviewed in Dethier, 1990), using grab and box core data. The Dethier (1990) review divides habitat up into Coast and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) substrate, water column energy, and depth zones but does not attempt to map these habitats, rather it is an inventory of habitats found in the area and the flora and fauna associated with each habitat. The approach of the Southern Salish Sea Mapping project is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data (the undersea equivalent of satellite remote-sensing data in terrestrial mapping), acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, and bottom-sediment sampling data. This approach is based in part on methods presented and data collection and product needs identified at the Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop (Washington State Seafloor Mapping Workshop Steering Committee, 2008), attended by coastal and marine managers and scientists. The map products display seafloor geomorphology and substrate, and identify potential marine benthic habitats. It is emphasized that the more interpretive habitat and geology maps rely on the integration of multiple, new high-resolution datasets and that mapping at small scales would not be possible without such data. Oceanographic current and wave data is not included in this analysis, however, the accompanying geographic information system (GIS) data set is designed and intended to be combined with oceanographic and biologic data sets assembled by others in the future and some of the GIS data has already been incorporated in the unpublished Nature Conservancy Benthic Habitats of Puget Sound database. This publication includes four map sheets, explanatory text, and a descriptive pamphlet. Each map sheet is published as a portable document format (PDF) file. ESRI ArcGIS compatible geotiffs (for example, bathymetry) and shapefiles (for example video observation points) will be available for download in the data catalog associated with this publication (Cochrane, 2015). An ArcGIS Project File with the symbology used to generate the map sheets is also provided. For those who do not own the full suite of ESRI GIS and mapping software, the data can be read using ESRI ArcReader, a free viewer that is available at http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcreader/index.html .

Washington↗
USGS2017

Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations

Conservation and management of spatially structured populations is challenging because solutions must consider where individuals are located, but also differential individual space use as a result of landscape heterogeneity. A recent extension of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, the ecological distance model, uses spatial encounter histories of individuals (e.g., a record of where individuals are detected across space, often sequenced over multiple sampling occasions), to estimate the relationship between space use and characteristics of a landscape, allowing simultaneous estimation of both local densities of individuals across space and connectivity at the scale of individual movement. We developed two model-based estimators derived from the SCR ecological distance model to quantify connectivity over a continuous surface: (1) potential connectivity—a metric of the connectivity of areas based on resistance to individual movement; and (2) density-weighted connectivity (DWC)—potential connectivity weighted by estimated density. Estimates of potential connectivity and DWC can provide spatial representations of areas that are most important for the conservation of threatened species, or management of abundant populations (i.e., areas with high density and landscape connectivity), and thus generate predictions that have great potential to inform conservation and management actions. We used a simulation study with a stationary trap design across a range of landscape resistance scenarios to evaluate how well our model estimates resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC. Correlation between true and estimated potential connectivity was high, and there was positive correlation and high spatial accuracy between estimated DWC and true DWC. We applied our approach to data collected from a population of black bears in New York, and found that forested areas represented low levels of resistance for black bears. We demonstrate that formal inference about measures of landscape connectivity can be achieved from standard methods of studying animal populations which yield individual encounter history data such as camera trapping. Resulting biological parameters including resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC estimate the spatial distribution and connectivity of the population within a statistical framework, and we outline applications to many possible conservation and management problems.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: 'All hands on deck'

The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus plexippus ) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed ( Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.

Conservation Letters↗
USGS2006

Organic Compounds and Trace Elements in Fish Tissue and Bed Sediment in the Delaware River Basin, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and Delaware, 1998-2000

As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program activities in the Delaware River Basin (DELR), samples of fish tissue from 21 sites and samples of bed sediment from 35 sites were analyzed for a suite of organic compounds and trace elements. The sampling sites, within subbasins ranging in size from 11 to 600 square miles, were selected to represent 5 main land-use categories in the DELR -forest, low-agricultural, agricultural, urban, and mixed use. Samples of both fish tissue and bed sediment were also collected from 4 'large-river' sites that represented drainage areas ranging from 1,300 to 6,800 square miles, areas in which the land is used for a variety of purposes. One or more of the organochlorine compounds-DDT and chlordane metabolites, polychlorinated biphenyls (total PCBs), and dieldrin- were detected frequently in samples collected over a wide geographic area. One or more of these compounds were detected in fish-tissue samples from 92 percent of the sites and in bed-sediment samples from 82 percent of the sites. Concentrations of total DDT, total chlordanes, total PCBs, and dieldrin in whole white suckers and in bed sediment were significantly related to urban/industrial basin characteristics, such as percentage of urban land use and population density. Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs)-total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), total phthalates, and phenols- were detected frequently in bed-sediment samples. All three types of SVOCs were detected in samples from at least one site in each land-use category. The highest detection rates and concentrations typically were in samples from sites in the urban and mixed land-use categories, as well as from the large-river sites. Concentrations of total PAHs and total phthalates in bed-sediment samples were found to be statistically related to percentages of urban land use and to population density in the drainage areas represented by the sampling sites. The samples of fish tissue and bed sediment collected throughout the DELR were analyzed for a large suite of trace elements, but results of the analyses for eight elements-arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, mercury, and zinc- that are considered contaminants of concern are described in this report. One or more of the eight trace elements were detected in samples from every fish tissue and bed-sediment sampling site, and all of the trace elements were detected in samples from 97 percent of the bed-sediment sites. The concentrations of organic compounds and trace elements in the DELR samples were compared to applicable guidelines for the protection of wildlife and other biological organisms. Concentrations of total DDT, total chlordanes, total PCBs, and dieldrin in fish-tissue samples from 14 sites exceeded one or more of the Wildlife Protective Guidelines established by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Concentrations of one or more organic compounds in samples from 16 bed-sediment sites exceeded the Threshold Effects Concentrations (TEC) of the Canadian Sediment Quality Guidelines, and concentrations of one or more of the eight trace elements in samples from 38 bed-sediment sites exceeded the TEC. (The TEC is the concentration below which adverse biological effects in freshwater ecosystems are expected to be rare.) Concentrations of organic compounds in samples from some bed-sediment sites exceeded the Canadian Probable Effects Concentrations (PEC), and concentrations of trace elements in samples from 18 sites exceeded the PEC. (The PEC is the concentration above which adverse effects to biological organisms are expected to occur frequently). Concentrations of organic compounds and trace elements in samples from the DELR were compared to similar data from other NAWQA study units in the northeastern United States and also data from the Mobile River (Alabama) Basin and the Northern Rockies Intermontane Basin study units. Median concentrations of to

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2025

Freshwater and diadromous Fishes of Puerto Rico

Freshwater and Diadromous Fishes of Puerto Rico describes the diversity of fishes in Puerto Rico’s freshwater environments and provides information on the history of research, management and conservation, and culture of fish and fisheries in Puerto Rico. This book’s catalog of fishes guides the reader in the identification of more than 50 native and nonnative species of fish from 22 families that occur in Puerto Rico’s freshwater lagoons, rivers, streams, and reservoirs. Each species account includes a map of known occurrences, and a description of each species’ morphological characteristics, biology, and distribution. Freshwater and Diadromous Fishes of Puerto Rico is the result of decades of scientific research; however, it is intended to be accessible and useful to readers with a variety of backgrounds, including scientists, students, and outdoor enthusiasts such as recreational anglers and freshwater snorkelers. Conservation and management are underlying themes of Freshwater and Diadromous Fishes of Puerto Rico . Though the main goal of this book is to be a resource for the identification of Puerto Rico’s freshwater fishes, and on their biology and ecology, it is also intended to increase awareness of threats to these fishes and their value to people and ecosystems.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2015

Management applications of discontinuity theory

Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems. We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity. Synthesis and applications . We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS1999

North Dakota

North Dakota prairies contain numerous wetlands. The complex functions of these prairie wetlands have been of interest for decades. The hydrology, water chemistry, and biological characteristics of these wetlands are highly variable because of extreme warm/cold and wet/dry conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been conducting studies (fig. 1) to gain insight into the functions of the prairie wetlands. The USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown has maintained an active wetland research program since the mid-1960’s. Current work in North Dakota began in 1978, and focuses on the response of biological communities to climate-induced variations in hydrology and chemistry, and on evaluating the success of previously drained wetlands restored under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and on similar lands. The information provided from this long-term study has provided the bulk of our knowledge about prairie wetlands, and has provided land managers with valuable information to manage the Nation’s prairie wetland resource.

North Dakota↗
USGS2006

Modeling habitat distribution from organism occurrences and environmental data: Case study using anemonefishes and their sea anemone hosts

We demonstrate the KGSMapper (Kansas Geological Survey Mapper), a straightforward, web-based biogeographic tool that uses environmental conditions of places where members of a taxon are known to occur to find other places containing suitable habitat for them. Using occurrence data for anemonefishes or their host sea anemones, and data for environmental parameters, we generated maps of suitable habitat for the organisms. The fact that the fishes are obligate symbionts of the anemones allowed us to validate the KGSMapper output: we were able to compare the inferred occurrence of the organism to that of the actual occurrence of its symbiont. Characterizing suitable habitat for these organisms in the Indo-West Pacific, the region where they naturally occur, can be used to guide conservation efforts, field work, etc.; defining suitable habitat for them in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is relevant to identifying areas vulnerable to biological invasions. We advocate distinguishing between these 2 sorts of model output, terming the former maps of realized habitat and the latter maps of potential habitat. Creation of a niche model requires adding biotic data to the environmental data used for habitat maps: we included data on fish occurrences to infer anemone distribution and vice versa. Altering the selection of environmental variables allowed us to investigate which variables may exert the most influence on organism distribution. Adding variables does not necessarily improve precision of the model output. KGSMapper output distinguishes areas that fall within 1 standard deviation (SD) of the mean environmental variable values for places where members of the taxon occur, within 2 SD, and within the entire range of values; eliminating outliers or data known to be imprecise or inaccurate improved output precision mainly in the 2 SD range and beyond. Thus, KGSMapper is robust in the face of questionable data, offering the user a way to recognize and clean such data. It also functions well with sparse datasets. These features make it useful for biogeographic meta-analyses with the diverse, distributed datasets that are typical for marine organisms lacking direct commercial value. ?? Inter-Research 2006.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2022

Spatial scale selection for informing species conservation in a changing landscape

Identifying the relevant spatial scale at which species respond to features in a landscape (scale of effect) is a pressing research need as managers work to reduce biodiversity loss amid a variety of environmental challenges. Until recently, researchers often evaluated a subset of potential scales of effect inferred from previous studies in other locations, often based on different biological responses and environmental variables. These approaches, however, can create uncertainty as to whether relevant spatial scales were identified, and whether the effects of environmental variables at scale were accurately estimated. Identifying scales of effect is particularly relevant for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a sagebrush-obligate species of conservation concern requiring large areas of intact sagebrush cover ( Artemisia spp.) for habitat. We demonstrate the application of a scale selection approach that jointly estimates the scale of effect and the effect of sagebrush cover on trends in population size using counts from 584 sage-grouse leks in southwestern Wyoming (2003–2019) and annual estimates of sagebrush cover from a remote sensing product. From this approach, we estimated a positive effect of mean sagebrush cover with a 95% probability that the scale of effect occurred within 5.02 km of leks. In an average year, we found that lower levels of sagebrush cover within these estimated scales could support increasing trends in sage-grouse population size when populations were small, but higher levels of sagebrush cover were needed to sustain growing populations when populations were larger. With standardized monitoring and annual estimates of vegetation from remote sensing, this scale selection approach can be applied to identify relevant scales for other populations, species, and biological responses such as demography and movement.

Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane ( Grus americana ), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of offspring produced. These results show that using decision-analytic tools to account for uncertainty in captive breeding can improve the rate at which such programs contribute to wildlife reintroductions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

A decision framework for the management of established biological invasions

In some cases, managing an established invasive species may do more harm to an ecosystem than allowing the invader to persist. Given limited resources available to land managers and the realities of conservation triage, we recognized the need for systematic guidance for management decisions made at the “late end” of the invasion curve. We gathered an interdisciplinary group of experts and practitioners to address the question of “under what circumstances is the active management of an established aquatic invasive species warranted?” Our working group identified three key dimensions to this question: (1) the efficacy of available management options; (2) the net benefits of management actions weighed against the null scenario of no control; and (3) the socio-ecological context that defines management goals, a manager’s ability to achieve said goals, and perceptions of management outcomes. These considerations were used to structure a consensus decision tree that supports a multi-criteria approach to decision-making. Our approach promotes interdisciplinarity and systems thinking and emphasizes the need to consider costs and benefits comprehensively, for example by considering the persistence or reversibility of impacts from both the invasive species and from efforts to suppress or eradicate it.

Facets↗
USGS2017

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr −1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species ( n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Impacts of rural development on Yellowstone wildlife: linking grizzly bear Ursus arctos demographics with projected residential growth

Exurban development is consuming wildlife habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem with potential consequences to the long-term conservation of grizzly bears Ursus arctos. We assessed the impacts of alternative future land-use scenarios by linking an existing regression-based simulation model predicting rural development with a spatially explicit model that predicted bear survival. Using demographic criteria that predict population trajectory, we portioned habitats into either source or sink, and projected the loss of source habitat associated with four different build out (new home construction) scenarios through 2020. Under boom growth, we predicted that 12 km 2 of source habitat were converted to sink habitat within the Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone (RZ), 189 km 2 were converted within the current distribution of grizzly bears outside of the RZ, and 289 km 2 were converted in the area outside the RZ identified as suitable grizzly bear habitat. Our findings showed that extremely low densities of residential development created sink habitats. We suggest that tools, such as those outlined in this article, in addition to zoning and subdivision regulation may prove more practical, and the most effective means of retaining large areas of undeveloped land and conserving grizzly bear source habitat will likely require a landscape-scale approach. We recommend a focus on land conservation efforts that retain open space (easements, purchases and trades) coupled with the implementation of ‘bear community programmes’ on an ecosystem wide basis in an effort to minimize human-bear conflicts, minimize management-related bear mortalities associated with preventable conflicts and to safeguard human communities. Our approach has application to other species and areas, and it has illustrated how spatially explicit demographic models can be combined with models predicting land-use change to help focus conservation priorities.

Yellowstone National Park↗
USGS2018

Incorporating productivity as a measure of fitness into models of breeding area quality of Arctic peregrine falcons

Using empirical location data from individuals to model habitat quality and species distributions is valuable towards understanding habitat use of wildlife, especially for conservation and management planning. Incorporating measures of reproductive success or survival into these models helps address the role of vital rates (a surrogate of fitness) in affecting a species’ distribution. We used 24-year datasets of Arctic peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus tundrius ) nest-site locations and productivity from the Colville River Special Area, Alaska, USA to model suitability of breeding habitat and the relative quality of used and potential nest sites. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models and covariates describing nest-site productivity, area of surrounding prey habitat, geology, topography, and land-cover type to model and predict intensity of Arctic peregrine falcon nest-site use along the Colville River, and developed a predictive map of intensity of nest-site use. Regions of higher predicted intensity of use were characterized by steeper slopes, greater area of prey habitat, and higher average productivity, which are likely attributed to minimizing predation risk, gaining advantages for hunting, having sufficient prey resources, site quality, and overall fitness. Including productivity in intensity of nest-site use models improved the models, supporting our supposition that adding a fitness parameter enhanced the predictive capability of the species distribution model. Areas predicted to have higher intensity of use by our model can be used to focus efforts of continued protection of areas with frequently occupied and productive nest sites, and conversely, identify areas where protection of nest sites is likely to have few conservation benefits.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Preserving and increasing water resources—Natural infrastructure in dryland streams in Baja California Sur, Mexico

The Los Planes watershed of Baja California Sur, Mexico, and its underlying aquifer are experiencing groundwater decline owing to low average annual rainfall (28.1 centimeters per year) and rising water demand from population growth and agricultural activities. This decline in water availability can lead to desertification—a process that changes arable land to desert by degrading soil and vegetation—and can pose serious challenges to livelihoods that depend on the land. To address these issues, a ranch in the Los Planes watershed has installed many natural infrastructures in dryland streams (NIDS) in channels for soil and water conservation. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began working with regional researchers and land managers to investigate the effects of NIDS on natural biological, geochemical, and physical processes and determine the efficacy of NIDS for water augmentation in the Los Planes watershed. The USGS also worked with local academic institutions and nonprofit organizations to create public educational opportunities focused on the area’s hydrogeology. These and other collaborative efforts with the U.S. Water Partnership and Innovaciones Alumbra aim at enhancing water resources in the Baja California Sur region and promoting water security and safeguarding community well-being. Resume La cuenca de Los Planes, ubicada en Baja California Sur, México, y su acuífero subyacente, están sufriendo una disminución de las aguas subterráneas debido a la baja precipitación media anual (28.1 centímetros por año) y la alta demanda de agua por parte de una población creciente y la actividad agrícola. Esta disminución de la disponibilidad de agua puede conducir a la desertificación—un proceso que por medio de la degradación del suelo y la vegetación convierte a la tierra cultivable en desierto—representando un serio desafío para los medios de vida de las personas. Para abordar estos problemas, un rancho en la cuenca de Los Planes ha instalado numerosas obras de Infraestructura Natural en Arroyos de Tierras Áridas (INATS) para conservación del suelo y del agua. En 2022, el Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos (USGS, por sus siglas en inglés) comenzó a trabajar con investigadores regionales y gestores de tierras para estudiar los efectos de INATS en los procesos biológicos, geoquímicos y físicos, y determinar su eficacia en el aumento de los recursos hídricos en la cuenca de Los Planes. El USGS se ha asociado con instituciones académicas y organizaciones locales sin fines de lucro para crear oportunidades educativas públicas centradas en la hidrogeología de la zona. Estos y otros esfuerzos colaborativos con la Asociación del Agua de Estados Unidos (U.S. Water Partnership) e Innovaciones Alumbra, tienen como objetivo mejorar el uso de los recursos hídricos en la región de Baja California Sur, promover la seguridad hídrica y proteger el bienestar de la comunidad.

Baja California Sur↗
USGS2015

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2012

The endangered West Indian manatee ( Trichechus manatus ), especially the Florida subspecies (T. m. latirostris), has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act. On the basis of the best information available as of December 2012, the threats facing the Florida manatee were determined to be less severe than previously thought, either because the conservation efforts have been successful, or because our knowledge of the demographic effects of those threats is increased, or both. Using the manatee Core Biological Model, we estimated the probability of the Florida manatee population on either the Atlantic or Gulf coast falling below 500 adults in the next 150 years to be 0.92 percent. The primary threats remain watercraft-related mortality and long-term loss of warm-water habitat. Since 2009, however, there have been a number of unusual events that have not yet been incorporated into this analysis, including several severely cold winters, a severe red-tide die off, and substantial loss of seagrass habitat in Brevard County, Fla. Further, the version of the Core Biological Model used in 2012 makes a number of assumptions that are under investigation. A revision of the Core Biological Model and an update of this quantitative threats analysis are underway as of 2015.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1975

Water and the South Florida environment

Ecological problems are a major concern to Florida as well as to the Nation. National attention was focused on these problems in September 1968, when the Port Authority of Dade County began to con- struct a jetport for supersonic aircraft on a 39-square-mile tract 6 miles north of Everglades National Park and on the east edge of the Big Cypress Swamp. Conservation groups and citizens raised questions as to the effects of a regional jetport and the attendant satellite growth on the water resources and biological communities of the National Park. The Department of the Interior began studies to investigate the situation. One study, Leopold (1969), reported on the unfavorable ecological effects of the attendant satellite growth. Then Secretary of the Interior, Walter J. Hickel, directed the U.S. Geological Survey to study the water resources of the Big Cypress to determine which parts of the Big Cypress contribute the major part of the water necessary to maintain adequate water supplies for Everglades National Park. This was done in a report by Klein and others (1970). At about the same time, the Departments of interior and Transportation, the State of Florida, and the Dade County Port Authority con-curred in assigning to the Secretary of the Interior certain responsibilities for planning, developing, and coordinating an ecological study of south Florida. A primary objective of the ecological study is to provide information that will assist in the formulation of land-use policy consistent with the protection of the environment of Everglades National Park, the adjacent estuaries, and the public water supplies. The part of the investigation describing the surface-water and ground-water resources of south Florida was assigned to the Geological Survey. The quantity and quality of surface water and ground water and their interrelation with estuarine and marine waters are here considered. Also considered are the problems, present or future, related to the hydrologic environment that involve human, animal, and plant life. Changes taking place, apparent trends, and projections for the future are also considered, as well as alternatives for water management. The Geological Survey effort began in January 1971, when aerial photography and selected qualitative hydrologic data were obtained. However, most of the information upon which this report Is based was obtained by the Geological Survey in cooperative programs with several local, State, and Federal agencies since about 1940. The long-term support of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service, U.S. Navy, Florida Department of Natural Resources, Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier Counties, Miami and Miami Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Naples and others in the collection of data is gratefully acknowledged. A prolonged drought throughout south Florida from September 1970 to May 1971 accentuated the importance and timeliness of the study. The drought brought about a readvance of sea-water intrusion in many coastal areas, which necessitated restrictions on water use. The effect of drought on the regional water supply, continued population growth and increased water demands, and deterioration of the water quality in many of the canals and waterways of the urban areas accentuated the need for improved water management and land-use planning. As a result of the water crisis, the Governor of Florida called a special conference in September 1971. The conference, attended by foremost scientific and government personnel, proposed creation of an agency that would develop and implement comprehensive land and water-use plans for south Florida that would minimize environmental degradation.

Florida↗