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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946–1975; 1976–2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

Global land cover mapping using Earth observation satellite data: Recent progresses and challenges

Land cover is an important variable for many studies involving the Earth surface, such as climate, food security, hydrology, soil erosion, atmospheric quality, conservation biology, and plant functioning. Land cover not only changes with human caused land use changes, but also changes with nature. Therefore, the state of land cover is highly dynamic. In winter snow shields underneath various other land cover types in higher latitudes. Floods may persist for a long period in a year over low land areas in the tropical and subtropical regions. Forest maybe burnt or clear cut in a few days and changes to bare land. Within several months, the coverage of crops may vary from bare land to nearly 100% crops and then back to bare land following harvest. The highly dynamic nature of land cover creates a challenge in mapping and monitoring which remains to be adequately addressed. As economic globalization continues to intensify, there is an increasing trend of land cover/land use change, environmental pollution, land degradation, biodiversity loss at the global scale, timely and reliable information on global land cover and its changes is urgently needed to mitigate the negative impact of global environment change.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

Mechanisms of methane hydrate formation in geological systems

Natural gas hydrates are ice-like mixtures of gas (mostly methane) and water that are widely found in sediments along the world’s continental margins and within and beneath permafrost in a near-surface depth interval where the pressure is sufficiently high and temperature sufficiently low for gas hydrate to be stable. Beneath this interval, gas hydrate is not stable and free gas may be present. This paper reviews the multiple quantitative models that have proposed to describe the genesis of gas hydrate in geological systems. We emphasize the importance of coupling multi-phase flow (vapor and liquid) and multicomponent reactive transport with geological history to describe the dynamical processes of gas hydrate formation and evolution in geological systems. By understanding the generation and evolution of gas hydrate through time, we will better understand their role in the carbon cycle, their potential to contribute to climate change and geohazards, and how to design optimal strategies for the environmentally safe production of gas from hydrate reservoirs.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

Using the California Waterfowl Tracker to assess proximity of waterfowl to commercial poultry in the Central Valley of California

Migratory waterfowl are the primary reservoir of avian influenza viruses (AIV) which can be spread to commercial poultry. Surveillance efforts that track the location and abundance of wild waterfowl and link those data to inform assessments of risk and sampling for AIV currently do not exist. To assist surveillance and minimize poultry exposure to AIV, here we explored the utility of remotely sensed MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery in combination with land-based climate measurements (e.g., temperature and precipitation) to predict waterfowl location and abundance in near real-time in the California Central Valley (CCV), where both wild waterfowl and domestic poultry are densely located. Specifically, remotely collected MODIS and climate data were integrated into a previously developed Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) model to predict and visualize waterfowl distributions across the CCV. Daily model-based predictions are publicly available during the winter as part of the dynamic California Waterfowl Tracker (CWT) web-app hosted on the University of California’s Cooperative Extension webpage. In this study, we analyzed 52 days of model predictions and produced daily spatio-temporal maps of waterfowl concentrations near the 605 commercial poultry farms in the CCV during January and February of 2019. Exposure of each poultry farm to waterfowl during each day was classified as “high”, “medium”, “low”, or “none” depending on the density of waterfowl within 4 km of a farm. Results indicated that farms were at substantially greater risk of “exposure” in January, when CCV waterfowl populations peak, than in February. For example, during January, 33% (199/605) of the farms were exposed ≥ 1 day to “high” waterfowl density versus 19% (115/605) of the farms in February. In addition to demonstrating the overall variability of waterfowl location and density, these data demonstrate how remote sensing can be used to better triage AIV surveillance and biosecurity efforts via the utilization of a functional web-app based tool. The ability to leverage remote sensing is an integral advancement toward improving AIV surveillance in waterfowl in close proximity to commercial poultry. Expansion of these types of remote sensing methods linked to a user-friendly web-tool could be further developed across the continental U.S. The BRT model incorporated into the CWT reflects a first attempt to give an accurate representation of waterfowl distribution and density relative to commercial poultry.

California↗

Active Mars: A dynamic world

Mars exhibits diverse surface changes at all latitudes and all seasons. Active processes include impact cratering, aeolian sand and dust transport, a variety of slope processes, changes in polar ices, and diverse effects of seasonal CO 2 frost. The extent of surface change has been surprising and indicates that the present climate is capable of reshaping the surface. Activity has important implications for the Amazonian history of Mars: understanding processes is a necessary step before we can understand their implications and variations over time.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER): Modeling population responses to habitat condition

Understanding how populations respond to spatially heterogeneous habitat disturbance is as critical to conservation as it is challenging. Here, we present a new, free, and open-source metapopulation model: Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER), which incorporates subpopulation habitat condition and connectivity into a population viability analysis framework. Modeling temporally dynamic and spatially explicit habitat disturbance of varying magnitude and duration is accomplished through the use of habitat time-series data and a mechanistic approach to adjusting subpopulation vital rates. Additionally, DyHDER uses a probabilistic dispersal model driven by site-specific habitat suitability, density dependence, and directionally dependent connectivity. In the first application of DyHDER, we explore how fragmentation and projected climate change are predicted to impact a well-studied Bonneville cutthroat trout metapopulation in the Logan River (Utah, USA). The DyHDER model predicts which subpopulations are most susceptible to disturbance, as well as the potential interactions between stressors. Further, the model predicts how populations may be expected to redistribute following disturbance. This information is valuable to conservationists and managers faced with protecting populations of conservation concern across landscapes undergoing changing disturbance regimes. The DyHDER model provides a valuable and generalizable new tool to explore metapopulation resilience to spatially and temporally dynamic stressors for a diverse range of taxa and ecosystems.

Ecosphere↗

How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological shifts. First, using existing long-term historical data series, they will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological factors have changed for marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently difficult to detect, the team will apply dynamic occupancy models to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. The project team will also synthesize regional information on a key, ecologically-important prey fish, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predator species targeted in this study as well as a range of other regional fish and wildlife of conservation and management concern. Results from this component of the project will identify coastal fish and wildlife species that are relatively more or less able to adapt and thus potentially vulnerable to climate change; determine the likely primary drivers of those changes; and identify data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be available and useful for regional coastal management and adaptation decisions that will allow managers to effectively plan for the future. In a second component of the project, researchers will focus specifically on changes in migration patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. While shifts in the distribution and time of recurring life events are adaptive responses that may help species cope with climate impacts, they can also lead to changes in how species interact with humans. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the most endangered whale species on the planet. In the North Atlantic Ocean, ship strikes and entanglements with commercial fishing gear represent fatal threats to right whales. Recent reports suggest that North Atlantic right whale migration patterns have changed. Many researchers posit that shifts in migration are responsible for recent increases in the overlap between right whales and human activities, especially fishing. To help understand how changes in right whale movements and behaviors may overlap with ship traffic, and thus put the animals at risk of encountering vessels, we will combine right whale habitat models with ship traffic maps. The end result will be a set of maps identifying risk levels.

Gulf of Maine↗

Population dynamics of the Cui-ui of Pyramid Lake, Nevada: A Potamodromous catostomid subject to failed reproduction

Fishes of the Truckee River basin (California and Nevada) evolved in an aquatic system that has been episodically diminished by extended drought. For potamodromous species, such as the endangered Cui-ui endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada, prehistoric episodic severe drought presumably led to periods of failed reproduction due to restricted access to spawning habitat. The response of the Cui-ui population to more recent failed reproduction caused by anthropogenic activity was studied to learn how to manage this species through periods of spawning disruption. Adult Cui-ui survival averaged 91% and 89% for females and males, respectively, in drought years when spawning migrations were either precluded or few fish migrated because of no or low stream flow. In each of 2 years when stream access was precluded, the adult survival was nearly 100% suggesting that Cui-ui survival is extended in the absence of a spawning migration. Survival averaged 62% and 60% for females and males, respectively, in years of spawning migrations. Strong predominant year-classes developed in the year immediately following a period of failed reproduction, indicating the species’ capacity for population rebound. Year-class predominance persisted for 6–10 years and through years of low survival associated with migration years, and this predominance is probably due, in part, to a diverse age at maturity. Contemporary water diversions from the Truckee River provided the opportunity to study the response of the Cui-ui population to years of failed reproduction. A projected drier Truckee River basin associated with global climate change will test the Cui-ui’s adaptive capacity to endure periods of reproductive failure. This study is aimed at assisting Cui-ui managers in conserving the species in this highly regulated and changing system. The study also adds insight into the prehistoric population dynamics of a potamodromous species in the arid western United States subject to wide fluctuations in annual precipitation and water availability.

California, Nevada↗

Effects of temporal hydrologic shifts on the population biology of an endangered freshwater fish in a dryland river ecosystem

Species occupying dryland river ecosystems often experience “boom-and-bust” demographic cycles that coincide with shifts in habitat availability. Knowing whether declines are within natural thresholds versus those caused by acute human disturbance is critical for managing protected species. We investigated temporal shifts in abundance and habitat use of an endangered population of the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus in southern California, where a Mediterranean climate leads to ephemeral habitat in one of the regions' least hydrologically modified rivers, the Santa Clara River. We conducted population surveys over a period of below-average rainfall in the upper watershed in Soledad Canyon, with predefined reaches surveyed multiple times per year to capture different hydrologic conditions. Abundances were stable across years but varied significantly depending on location, with some reaches remaining dry and others drying seasonally to varying degrees. Occupancy models showed that the presence of stable perennial reaches, drying regime, and other site-specific factors were important predictors of habitat use, and that certain reaches may be key to ensuring source-sink dynamics as flow dissipates over the dry season. Low occupancy in two sections was driven by different predominant mechanisms, one by diel cycles of evapotranspiration and the other by cattails ( Typha spp.), with both having greater effects during the hotter, drier parts of the year. As dryland river ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of anthropogenic-induced climate change, this study demonstrates how temporal monitoring can delimit dry-state benchmarks for improving management interventions (i.e., translocation and habitat restoration) for protected species under conditions that are predicted to worsen in the coming years.

California↗

Plasticity in physiological condition of female brown bears across diverse ecosystems

Variation in life history strategies facilitates the near global distribution of mammals by expanding realized niche width. We investigated physiological plasticity in the spring body composition of adult female brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) across 4 diverse Alaskan ecosystems. Brown bears are a highly intelligent omnivore with a historic range spanning much of North America, Europe, and Asia. We hypothesized that body mass, fat mass, lean mass, and total caloric content would increase across populations with increasing food resource availability. Throughout their range, brown bears enter a period of torpor during winter months, decreasing their metabolic rate as an adaptation to this period of reduced food availability. They also give birth to and nourish offspring during this time. Due to this specific life history strategy, we further hypothesized that proportional body fat and the proportion of total calories derived from fat would be consistent across populations. Our results supported our first hypothesis: body, fat, and lean masses, and caloric content of bears across populations increased with the quality and abundance of available food. However, the proportional body fat content and proportion of calories from fat differed across populations indicating population-specific strategies to meet the demands of reduced seasonal food availability, offspring production and rearing, and climate as well as some plasticity to respond to environmental change or ecosystem perturbations. Investigations of body condition and energetics benefit from combined assessments of absolute, proportional, and caloric metrics to understand the nuances of brown bear physiological dynamics across and within populations.

Alaska↗

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from salinity histories of adjacent lakes in southwestern Sicily (Italy)

Marked uncertainties persist regarding the climatic evolution of the Mediterranean region during the Holocene. For instance, whether moisture availability gradually decreased, remained relatively constant, or increased during the last 7000 years remains a matter of debate. To assess Holocene limnology, hydrology and moisture dynamics, the coastal lakes Lago Preola and Gorgo Basso, located in southwestern Sicily, were investigated through several stratigraphic analyses of ostracodes, including multivariate analyses of assemblages, transfer functions of salinity, and biochemical analyses of valves (Sr/Ca, δ 18 O and δ 13 C). During the early Holocene, the Gorgo Basso and Lago Preola ostracode records are similar. After an initial period of moderate salinity (1690–6100 mg/l from ca. 10,000–8190 cal yr BP), syndepositional or diagenetic dissolution of ostracode valves suggests that salinity declined to <250 mg/L from ca. 8190 to 7000 cal yr BP at both sites. After ca. 6250 cal yr BP, the ostracode records are strikingly different. Lago Preola became much more saline, with paleosalinity values that ranged from 2270 to about 24,420 mg/L. We suggest that Lago Preola's change from a freshwater to mesosaline lake at about 6250 cal yr BP was related to sea level rise and resulting intrusion of seawater-influenced groundwater. In contrast, Gorgo Basso remained a freshwater lake. The salinity of Gorgo Basso declined somewhat after 6250 cal yr BP, in comparison to the early Holocene, ranging from about 550 to 1680 mg/L. Cypria ophtalmica , a species capable of rapid swimming and flourishing in waters with low dissolved oxygen levels, became dominant at approximately the time when Greek civilization took root in Sicily (2600 cal yr BP), and it completely dominates the record during Roman occupation (roughly 2100 to 1700 cal yr BP). These freshwater conditions at Gorgo Basso suggest high effective moisture when evergreen olive-oak forests collapsed in response to increased Greco-Roman land use and fire. Ostracode valve geochemistry (Sr/Ca, δ 18 O) suggests significant changes in early vs. late Holocene hydrochemistry, either as changes in salinity or in the seasonality of precipitation. Harmonizing the autecological and geochemical data from Gorgo Basso suggests the latter was more likely, with relatively more late Holocene precipitation falling during the spring, summer, and fall, than winter compared to the early Holocene. Our ostracode-inferred paleosalinity data indicate that moisture availability did not decline during the late Holocene in the central Mediterranean region. Instead, moisture availability was lowest during the early Holocene, and most abundant during the late Holocene.

Trapani Province↗

Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.

Arizona↗

Sediment storage and transport in the Nooksack River basin, northwestern Washington, 2006–15

The Nooksack River is a dynamic gravel-bedded river in northwestern Washington, draining off Mount Baker and the North Cascades into Puget Sound. Working in cooperation with the Whatcom County Flood Control Zone District, the U.S. Geological Survey studied topographic, hydrologic, and climatic data for the Nooksack River basin to document recent changes in sediment storage, long-term bed elevation trends, rates of sediment transport, and factors influencing surficial drainage in order to support ongoing river management. Differences in elevations between topographic and bathymetric surveys in 2005/06 and 2013/15 indicate the active channel aggraded about 1–2 feet locally near the cities of Ferndale and Everson but was primarily stable between them. The active channel upstream of Nugent’s Corner generally incised. Total incision upstream of Nugent’s Corner to Glacier Creek generated 2.3 ± 1.7 million cubic yards of sediment from 2005/06 to 2013 and likely represented a significant source of coarse sediment to the lower mainstem river over that time. Long-term records of local channel-bed elevation, derived from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, show bed-elevation changes of about 1–3 feet. The river bed at most streamgages exhibits long-term trends, with relatively consistent rates of change on the order of 1 foot per decade that persist years to decades. Lagged correlations in bed-elevation trends at all seven streamgages in the North Fork Nooksack and mainstem Nooksack suggest that decadal periods of persistent aggradation and incision originate in the North Fork and translate downstream. The channel-change signal propagates downstream 0.5–2.5 miles per year, with the rate of propagation scaling closely with channel slope. The pattern of incision and aggradation in the North Fork correlates with regional climate, where persistent incision follows extended cold and wet periods, and persistent aggradation follows extended warm and dry periods. Climate-driven variation in coarse-sediment delivery, primarily from the North Fork Nooksack, then appears to be a strong control on long-term vertical channel adjustments at sites downstream. The downstream-translating climate signal generated in the North Fork would account for recently observed aggradation at Everson and Ferndale but not the observed incision in unconfined reaches upstream of Nugent’s Corner from 2005–06 to 2013. This mismatch indicates that understanding how changes in sediment-supply influence those unconfined reaches remains a key uncertainty for predicting future channel change. Continuous turbidity monitoring integrated with suspended sediment and limited bedload sampling were used to calculate annual sediment loads at five sites in the basin. The sediment load in the lower river at Ferndale ranged from 0.78 to 1.17 million tons per year and averaged 0.97 million tons per year for WYs 2012–17. Suspended sediment made up 93 percent of the load, and bedload made up 7 percent. Most of the fine sediment load of the lower river is supplied from headwaters of the North, Middle, and South Fork Nooksack basins, with relatively little net increase in fine sediment loads in the lower mainstem basin. The three forks supply approximately equal proportions of the lower-river fine sediment load. However, the glacially sourced North and Middle Fork Nooksack basins carry a notably sandier suspended-sediment load than the South Fork Nooksack. A comparison of monthly streamflow and precipitation trends since 1981 indicate statistically significant increases in total spring precipitation and the number of spring days with measurable precipitation in much of the basin, as well as increases in mean spring river stage near Ferndale. Since no trends in mean spring discharge are observed, the trends in river stage are attributed primarily to observed changes in bed elevation. Changes in bed elevation and precipitation may then both have plausibly impacted field drainage in the lower river below Ferndale.

Washington↗

Techniques for estimating peak flow on small streams in Minnesota

Two statistically-derived techniques, regional regression equation and region of influence regression, that estimate peak flow on small, ungaged streams in Minnesota were developed. Both techniques relate physical and climatic characteristics to peak flow for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. Regional regression equations were developed for each recurrence interval in each of six regions in Minnesota. The region of influence regression technique dynamically selects stations with characteristics similar to a site of interest. Thus, the region of influence regression technique allows use of a potentially unique set of stations for estimating peak flow at each site of interest. Two methods of selecting streamflow gaging stations, similarity and proximity, are recommended for use in the region of influence regression technique. The regional regression equation technique is recommended as a first estimate of peak flow in regions C, E, and F. The similarity method of the region of influence regression technique should be used as a first estimate in regions A and D. The proximity method should be used as a first estimate in region B. Tables showing the peak-flow-frequency data and basin characteristics for streamflow gaging stations, and regional peak-flow prediction equations, are documented.

Minnesota↗

Prairie basin wetlands of the Dakotas: a community profile

This description of prairie basin wetlands of the Dakotas is part of a series of community profiles on ecologically important wetlands of national significance. The shallow wetlands of the Dakotas form the bulk of the portion of the Prairie Pothole Region lying within the United States. This region is famous as the producer of at least half of North America's waterfowl and an unknown, but large, proportion of other prairie-dwelling marsh and aquatic birds.The wetlands described here lie in relatively small, shallow basins that vary greatly in their ability to maintain surface water, and in their water chemistry, which varies from fresh to hypersaline. These wetlands occur in a wide variety of hydrological settings, in an area where annual and seasonal precipitation varies greatly in form and amount. Thus the presence of surface water in these wetlands is largely unpredictable. Superimposed on these phenomena are the effects of a variety of land uses, including pasture, cultivation, mechanical forage removal, idle conditions and burning. All those factors greatly affect the plant and animal communities found in these basins.This profile covers lacustrine and palustrine basins with temporarily flooded, seasonally flooded, and semipermanently flooded water regimes. Basins with these water regimes compose about 90% of the basins in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Dakotas. This profile outlines the wetland subsystems, classes and subclasses that occur in these basins, and provides a useful reference to their geologic, climatic, hydrologic, and pedologic setting.Detailed information on the biotic environment of the wetlands dealt with in this profile will be useful to scientists and resource managers. Special recognition is paid to the macrophyte and invertebrate communities, which have dynamic qualities found in few other of the world's wetland ecosystems.The most noteworthy animal inhabitants of these basins are waterfowl, which are a resource of international concern. Because of the importance of this resource, much research on the habitat use and feeding ecology of breeding waterfowl has been conducted in the region. These topics receive special attention in this profile.The Prairie Pothole Region is a major world supplier of cereal grains. Consequently, wetlands in the region are often drained for crop production or otherwise cropped when water conditions permit. These practices degrade the value of wetlands for most species of wildlife and conflict with the aims of conservationists. The subject of human uses and impacts to prairie wetlands is thus an important part of this profile.

Biological Report↗

Multi-decadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding

Wildfires and climate change are having transformative effects on vegetation composition and structure, and post-fire management may have long-lasting impacts on ecosystem reorganization. Post-fire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time, particularly in type-converted forests which have been dramatically transformed by the effects of repeated, high-severity fire. In this study, we analyze and report on a rare long-term (23-year) dataset that documents vegetation dynamics following a 1996 post-fire aerial seed treatment and subsequent 2011 high-severity reburn in a dry conifer forest of northern New Mexico in the southwestern United States. Repeated surveys between 1997 – 2019 of 49 permanent transects were used to test for differences in vegetation cover, richness, and diversity between seeded and unseeded areas, and to characterize the development of seeded and unseeded vegetation communities through time and across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and soil-available water capacity. Post-fire seeding led to a clear and sustained divergence in herbaceous community composition. Seeded plots had much higher cover of non-native graminoids, primarily Bromus inermis , a likely contaminant in the seed mix. High-severity reburning in all plots in 2011 reduced native graminoid cover by half at seeded plots compared to both pre-fire levels and to plots that were unseeded following the initial 1996 fire. In addition, increased fire severity was associated with increased non-native graminoid cover and reduced native graminoid cover, native species richness, and species diversity. This study documents a fire-driven ecosystem transformation from a former conifer forest into a shrub-grass system, reinforced by aerial seeding of grasses and high-severity reburning. This unique long-term dataset illustrates that post-fire seeding carries significant risk of unwanted non-native species invasions that persist through subsequent fires – indicating that alternative post-fire management actions merit consideration to better support native ecosystem resilience in the face of emergent climate change and increasing disturbance. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of post-fire vegetation dynamics, as short-term assessments will miss key elements of the full complexity of ecosystem responses to fire and post-fire management actions.

New Mexico↗

Mapping and monitoring cheatgrass dieoff in rangelands of the Northern Great Basin, USA

Understanding cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) dynamics in the Northern Great Basin rangelands, USA, is necessary to effectively manage the region&rsquo;s lands. This study&rsquo;s goal was to map and monitor cheatgrass performance to identify where and when cheatgrass dieoff occurred in the Northern Great Basin and to discover how this phenomenon was affected by climatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. We also examined how fire affected cheatgrass performance. Land managers and scientists are concerned by cheatgrass dieoff because it can increase land degradation, and its causes and effects are not fully known. To better understand the scope of cheatgrass dieoff, we developed multiple ecological models that integrated remote sensing data with geophysical and biophysical data. The models&rsquo; R 2 ranged from 0.71 to 0.88, and their root mean squared errors (RMSEs) ranged from 3.07 to 6.95. Validation of dieoff data showed that 41% of pixels within independently developed dieoff polygons were accurately classified as dieoff, whereas 2% of pixels outside of dieoff polygons were classified as dieoff. Site potential, a long-term spatial average of cheatgrass cover, dominated the development of the cheatgrass performance model. Fire negatively affected cheatgrass performance 1 year postfire, but by the second year postfire performance exceeded prefire levels. The landscape-scale monitoring study presented in this paper helps increase knowledge about recent rangeland dynamics, including where cheatgrass dieoffs occurred and how cheatgrass responded to fire. This knowledge can help direct further investigation and/or guide land management activities that can capitalize on, or mitigate the effects of, cheatgrass dieoff.

Northern Great Basin↗

Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks

Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon flux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil profile, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.

Ecological Applications↗