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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Estimating greater sage-grouse population sizes within Oregon, 2017–24

We fit a binomial mixture ( N -mixture) model to lek (breeding area) count data to estimate annual population sizes of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) within Oregon between 2017 and 2024. Population estimates were delineated among 24 priority areas for conservation, and additional sources of information were considered, including male-to-female sex ratios, lek attendance rates, numbers of unmodeled leks, and the existence of unsampled/unknown leks. In 2024, Oregon was estimated to contain approximately 41,875 sage-grouse (95-percent credible interval [CRI=38,980–54,634]), which was down from a high of 50,869 (95-percent CRI=41,794–66,238) in 2017. A nadir (low point) was identified during 2019, when the median statewide population estimate was 30,644 birds. A complete population oscillation was not evident during the inferential period based on local maxima that were observed during the start (2017) and stop (2024) years of analysis. In addition to estimating population sizes, we evaluated N -mixture model estimates for precision and accuracy after randomly removing single and repeat counts in 10-percent increments (relative to total sample size). We estimated an increase in absolute bias of approximately 1.6 percent for every 10-percent reduction in effort.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Standardized guide to the examination and necropsy of the horseshoe crab using Limulus polyphemus as Limulidae prototype

The Atlantic, or American, horseshoe crab (L imulus polyphemus ) has existed largely unchanged for over 100 million years. Millions of individuals are commonly observed ashore in spring and summer months during spawning events along the entire North American coastline expanding from the East to the Gulf coasts of the United States and Mexico. Other species can be found in the Indian and Pacific Ocean. The massive deposit of eggs in nearshore sand provides a critical source of food for endangered migrating birds, especially the Red Knot ( Calidruis canutus rufa ) in the Delaware Bay. Horseshoe crabs are also an important component of the sea turtle diet. In addition to the ecological importance, horseshoe crabs are used commercially for bait in eel and conch fisheries and for biomedical purposes in the production of Limulus Amebocyte Lysate (LAL) to detect bacterial toxins in injectable drugs and implantable devices. Commercial demands have led to population declines in some regions. Fisheries are regulated by state and the current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) listing for L. polyphemus is vulnerable. A small number of individuals are housed in public aquaria for educational purposes. With growing interest in animal welfare, the health and stability of populations, and potential stressors that can contribute to decline , it is important to have clear and detailed descriptions of horseshoe crab anatomy and necropsy techniques. The purpose of this guide is to illustrate the normal anatomy and the step-by-step technique for dissection of horseshoe crabs. The contents are largely excerpts of the master’s thesis of artist, Katie (Bergdale) Roorda, which was based on photographs from C. Meteyer documenting the sequence and procedure used for necropsy dissection.

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2026

Incorporating data sets with multiple sources of uncertainty in integrated species distribution models

Data integration methods aim to improve species distribution estimates by incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty across datasets. Two major sources of uncertainty are: (1) variation in sampling effort across space and within datasets, and (2) variation in reliability associated with data collection protocols or timing among datasets. Our goal was to evaluate how different approaches to address these uncertainties influence predictive performance of integrated models. We modeled distributions of four bird species using three datasets that differed in sampling design. We examined three strategies to reduce uncertainty: (1) filtering data, (2) incorporating functions that account for uncertainty in observation models, and (3) varying how datasets are integrated into a single estimate. We first examine methods to account for variable effort in observations, focusing on both spatial differences in sampling intensity and effort given to a single observation record. We then examine approaches to account for data sets with differing reliability. Sampling effort was best addressed through conservative filtering, including spatial thinning and excluding observations with highly variable effort. Next, we considered how to account for potential false positive detections—due to either misidentification or changes in distributions. We found that treating less reliable data as a covariate, an approach previously suggested for data integration that can greatly speed up model fitting, performed well. Other effective approaches included directly modeling false positive rates and complete exclusion of less reliable data sets. Our results provide insights into best practices in integrated modeling for handling uncertainty in integrated models. We demonstrate the flexible options available when using integrated models to address uncertainty.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2004

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Oecologia↗

USGS2026

Estimating greater sage-grouse population sizes within the state of Oregon, USA 2017–2024

We fit an N -mixture model to lek (breeding area) count data to estimate annual population sizes of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) within the state of Oregon, USA between 2017–2024. Population estimates were delineated among 24 Priority Areas for Conservation (PACs) and considered additional sources of information including male-to-female sex ratios, lek attendance rates, numbers of unmodeled leks, and the existence of unsampled/unknown leks. In 2024, the state of Oregon was estimated to contain approximately 41,875 sage-grouse (95% credible interval [CRI] = 38,980–54,634), which was down from a high of 50,869 (95% CRI = 41,794–66,238) in 2017. A nadir (low point) was identified during 2019, when the median statewide population estimate was 30,644 birds. A complete population oscillation was not evident during the inferential period based on local maxima that were observed during the start (2017) and stop (2024) years of analysis. In addition to estimating population sizes, we evaluated N -mixture model estimates for precision and accuracy after randomly removing single and repeat counts in 10% increments (relative to total sample size). We estimated an increase in absolute bias of approximately 1.6% for every 10% reduction in effort.

BioRxiv↗

USGS2017

No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper ( Loxops mana ) and Hawai`i `Ākepa ( L . coccineus ). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2015

Aerial-broadcast application of diphacinone bait for rodent control in Hawai`i: Efficacy and non-target species risk assessment

Introduced rats ( Rattus rattus, R. exulans , and R. norvegicus ) have been implicated in the decline or extinction of numerous species of plants and animals in Hawai‘i. This study investigated the efficacy of aerial-broadcast application of Ramik® Green baits containing 50 ppm (0.005%) diphacinone in reducing rat and mouse populations and the risk to non-target species. The study was undertaken in paired 45.56-ha treatment and non-treatment plots in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park. All 21 radio-collared rats in the treatment plot died within nine days of bait application, whereas none of the 18 radio-collared rats in the non-treatment plot died. There was a 99% drop in both the rat capture rate and percentage of non-toxic census bait blocks gnawed by rats in the treatment plot relative to the non-treatment plot three weeks after bait application. The only rat captured in the treatment plot three weeks after bait application was not ear-tagged (i.e., it was not a recapture), whereas 44% of the 52 rats captured in the non-treatment plot were ear-tagged. Most of the bait had disappeared from the forest floor within about one month of application. No birds likely to have eaten bait were found dead, although residues of diphacinone were found in the livers of three species of introduced seed-eating/omnivorous birds captured alive after bait application. No predatory birds were found dead one month or three months after bait application. The remains of a Hawaiian hawk (Buteo solitarius) were found six months after bait application, but it was not possible to determine the cause of death. This study demonstrated the efficacy of aerially broadcast diphacinone bait for control of rats and mice in Hawaiian montane forests, and was part of the dataset submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the national registration of a diphacinone bait for the control of rat populations in conservation areas.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Dynamics of the nesting group of the steppe eagle in Aktobe region in 2018-2023

Kazakhstan is a key area for the conservation of the steppe eagle, which is classified as an endangered species by the IUCN. Systematic work on monitoring changes in its number and reproductive success is carried out in protected areas. The remaining steppe spaces are explored sporadically. Our work partially fills this gap. Over 5 years of monitoring the nesting group in the north of the Aktobe region, 85 successful nests of the steppe eagle were identified. 160 fledglings were counted. Data have been collected on the spatial distribution and population dynamics of this bird.

Aktobe region↗

USGS1997

Effects of the landscape on shorebird movements at spring migration stopovers

We monitored the inter-wetland movements of 115 radio-tagged Pectoral Sandpipers (Calidris melanotos) at three migration stopovers in the Great Plains of North America during April and May from 1992 to 1995. While resident at a stopover, individuals were very localized in their movements. Over 40% of the birds made no inter, wetland movements, and over 90% of individuals moved less than 10 km from their original release site. Characteristics of wetlands where birds were released did not affect bird movements. However, the structure of the surrounding landscape explained up to 46% of variation in individual bird movements. As the distance between wetlands decreased, and the proportion of the landscape composed of wetlands increased, individual birds moved between wetlands more frequently and moved longer distances from their release site. These movement patterns indicate that a more connected landscape allows shorebirds to exploit more feeding sites with reduced searching costs; a result consistent with foraging theory. We estimate a degree of landscape connectivity at which a wetland complex functions as a single large wetland as measured by sandpiper feeding patterns. Our data provide support for the idea that complexes of small, closely spaced wetlands can be important migration stopovers and may have significant conservation value.

Condor↗

USGS2002

Waterbird use of bayland wetlands in the San Francisco Bay estuary: Movements of long-billed dowitchers during the winter

The San Francisco Bay estuary is a migration and wintering area for more than 1.5 million waterbirds on the west coast of North America. Because the estuary is located in a metropolitan area, development and diking of baylands (the region between the edge of the bay and the historical high tide line) have greatly altered the wetland landscape. Recently, conservation interests have promoted restoration of diked baylands to tidal salt marshes for the benefit of endangered native species. However, effects of tidal marsh conversion on the existing community of waterbirds in the baylands are largely unknown, especially in muted tidal marshes with restricted inflows and in artificial salt evaporation ponds where high waterbird densities are found. The first radio-marking study of the Long-billed Dowitcher ( Limnodromus scolopaceus ) was conducted in November-December 2000 to examine their use of baylands. We captured 32 birds by rocket netting in a muted tidal marsh on the North Bay and radio-marked them with 1.2 g transmitters affixed with glue. Individuals were tracked for an average of 20.3 d (±8.5 SD) and obtained 217 high tide and 195 low tide locations. Movements between tides (x̄ = 1.29±1.48 SD km) and home range sizes (x̄ = 17.7±16.0 SD km 2 ) were highly variable. Long-billed Dowitchers preferred open habitats such as muted tidal marshes during the high tide, but the majority (78.5%) also remained in these wetlands during low tide rather than feeding at nearby mud flats. Their avoidance of mud flats contrasted sharply with Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ) but was similar to Black-necked Stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ). Seven Long-billed Dowitchers flew 110 km inland to Central Valley wetlands in mid-December, a regional movement documented earlier for Dunlin ( Calidris alpina ) wintering on the coast. However, unlike Dunlin, their movements were not in response to rainfall but may have been in response to a low pressure front or possibly predictable flooding of fields in the Central Valley. Although the estuary is a major wintering area supporting large numbers of waterbirds, some birds such as Long-billed Dowitchers move inland to freshwater wetlands in the Central Valley.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2018

Mercury concentrations in multiple tissues of Kittlitz's murrelets (Brachyramphus brevirostris)

Mercury (Hg) is a non-essential, toxic metal that is distributed worldwide. Mercury biomagnifies in food webs and can threaten the health of top predators such as seabirds. The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a seabird endemic to Alaska and the Russian Far East and is a species of conservation concern in the region. We determined Hg concentrations in eggshells, guano, blood, and feathers of Kittlitz's murrelets sampled from four locations in Alaska. Mercury concentrations in eggshells, guano, and blood were low compared to other seabird species. Mean Hg concentrations of breast feathers from Adak Island and Glacier Bay were significantly greater than those from Agattu Island or Icy Bay. Two Kittlitz's murrelets at Glacier Bay and one Kittlitz's murrelet at Adak Island had Hg concentrations above those associated with impaired reproduction in other bird species, and may merit further investigation as a potential threat to individuals and populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Across borders: External factors and prior behaviour influence North Pacific albatross associations with fishing vessels

Understanding encounters between marine predators and fisheries across national borders and outside national jurisdictions offers new perspectives on unwanted interactions to inform ocean management and predator conservation. Although seabird–fisheries overlap has been documented at many scales, remote identification of vessel encounters has lagged because vessel movement data often are lacking. Here, we reveal albatrosses–fisheries associations throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We identified commercial fishing operations using Global Fishing Watch data and algorithms to detect fishing vessels. We compiled GPS tracks of adult black-footed Phoebastria nigripes and Laysan Phoebastria immutabilis albatrosses, and juvenile short-tailed albatrosses Phoebastria albatrus . We quantified albatrosses-vessel encounters based on the assumed distance that birds perceive a vessel (≤30 km), and associations when birds approached vessels (≤3 km). For each event we quantified bird behaviour, environmental conditions and vessel characteristics and then applied Boosted Regression Tree models to identify drivers and the duration of these associations. In regions of greater fishing effort short-tailed and Laysan albatrosses associated with fishing vessels more frequently. However, fishing method (e.g. longline, trawl) and flag nation did not influence association prevalence nor the duration short-tailed albatrosses attended fishing vessels. Laysan albatrosses were more likely to approach longer vessels. Black-footed albatrosses were the most likely to approach vessels (61.9%), but limited vessel encounters ( n = 21) prevented evaluation of meaningful explanatory models for this species of high bycatch concern. Temporal variables (time of day and month) and bird behavioural state helped explain when short-tailed albatrosses were in close proximity to a vessel, but environmental conditions were more important for explaining interaction duration. Laysan albatrosses were more likely to associate with vessels while searching and during the last 60% (by time) of their trips. Our results provide specific species–fisheries insight regarding contributing factors of high-risk associations that could lead to bycatch of albatrosses within national waters and on the high seas. Policy implications . Given the availability of Global Fishing Watch data, our analysis can be applied to other marine predators—if tracking data are available—to identify spatio-temporal patterns, vessel specific attributes and predator behaviours associated with fishing vessel associations, thus enabling predictive modelling and targeted mitigation measures.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2009

Progress Report: Stratton Ecological Research Site - An Experimental Approach to Assess Effects of Various Grazing Treatments on Vegetation and Wildlife Communities Across Managed Burns and Habitat Controls

Understanding how management practices affect wildlife is fundamental to wise decisions for conservation of public lands. Prescribed fire and grazing timing are two management tools frequently used within publicly owned sagebrush ecosystems. We conducted a variety of surveys in order to assess the impacts of grazing timing strategies (early summer before peak green-up, mid-summer at peak green-up, and late summer after peak green-up) in conjunction with prescribed fire on avian and small mammal populations in a high-elevation sagebrush ecosystem. Avian surveys resulted in a large detection sample size for three bird species: Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri), horned lark (Eremophila alpestris), and vesper sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus). Brewer's sparrows had the lowest number of detections within the mid-summer grazing treatment compared to early and late summer grazing treatments, while horned larks and vesper sparrows had higher detection frequencies within the late summer grazing treatment. Summer and fall sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) pellet counts revealed that the greatest over-winter and over-summer use by sage-grouse occurred within the early summer grazing treatment with minimal use of burn treatment areas across all grazing treatments. Deer-mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) represented approximately 90 percent of small mammals captured and were most prevalent within the mid-summer grazing treatment. Sagebrush cover was greatest within the mid-summer grazing treatment. We monitored 50 and 103 nests in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The apparent success rate for shrub-obligate nesting species was 58 percent in 2007 and 63 percent in 2008. This research will support management of sagebrush ecosystems by providing public land managers with direct comparisons of wildlife response to management regimes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

The distribution and conservation status of the Gull-billed Tern (Gelochelidon nilotica) in North America

The Gull-billed Tern (Gelochelidon nilotica) has until recently received little conservation and management attention within North America despite a relatively low overall population size and significant declines in parts of the breeding range. This lack of attention may stem in part from the wide distribution of the species, encompassing parts of six continents, and from its tendency to nest in relatively small, scattered and often ephemeral colonies. Populations of North American subspecies are alarmingly small. The current population of the eastern subspecies aranea in the U.S. is unlikely to exceed 3,600 pairs, with over 60% of these birds occurring in Texas. The Texas population has remained generally stable, but declines of populations in Maryland (where probably extirpated), Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and possibly Georgia give cause for concern for this subspecies. For the western subspecies vanrossemi, as few as 250 pairs nest at only two locations in the U.S., both in California. When populations in western Mexico are considered, the entire vanrossemi population numbers only 600-800 pairs. Currently the Gull-billed Tern is listed as ?endangered? or ?threatened? in four states, and is considered to be of management concern in five others. The breeding range of the species has contracted and shifted slightly from its known historic range in the middle Atlantic states, but otherwise occupies its historic range in the United States and has expanded slightly to coastal southern California. Some range contraction in Mexico (e.g., in Sonora) may have occurred. In eastern Mexico, historical information is almost non-existent and knowledge of current distribution and abundance is incomplete. Main threats to populations in North America include loss of natural nesting islands through beach erosion or perturbations to estuarine functions, development or modification of upland habitats near breeding areas that may be important for foraging, and disturbances to colonies by humans and feral or human-subsidized predators. This species often nests on man-made substrates suggesting it could be responsive to management of breeding sites. Key research needs include more frequent and refined population monitoring, a better understanding of demographics, metapopulation dynamics and factors limiting populations as well as refinement of subspecies? breeding distributions and wintering ranges.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2022

MTAB 101, September 2022

This Memo to All Banders (MTAB 101) was released in September 2022. Subjects in this this memo are 1. The Chief’s Chirp; 2. Alerts – Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza; 3. Staff updates – staff spotlight: BBL’s new contractor database manager; 4. News – Gamebirds Release, 1-Year Anniversary of Banders Without Borders, Latino Conservation Week, and Bander Portal Update Release; 5. A note from the permitting shelves; 6. A note from the supply room; 7. Data management – including important information regarding Bandit,, How to sign up for a Bander Portal account, why you should sign up for a bander portal account, and cleaning up your locations; 8. Banding and encounter highlights; 9. Auxiliary marker corner; 10. Message to the Flyways; 11. Message regarding the Banding Associations; 12. Moments in history; 13. Recent Publications; 14. Upcoming events; 15. Message from Canada’s Bird Banding Office; and 16. Request for information.

Memo to All Banders (MTAB)↗

USGS2016

Ecology and conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairies

Sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) prairies are unique ecosystems endemic to sandy soils of eastern New Mexico, northwestern Texas, and western Oklahoma; the historic and current distribution of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) overlaps these prairie systems. Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations in sand shinnery oak prairies of the Southern Great Plains have declined substantially since the late 1980s, most likely due to conversion of nesting and brood-rearing habitat to row-crop agriculture and extended periods of drought. In addition to threats universal throughout the species distribution, this population is susceptible to a changing climate in an area that is already representative of an extreme environment for ground-nesting birds. Recent studies of Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairies have expanded our knowledge on the ecology and management of the species, but a thorough review of the historic and current literature is lacking. In addition, current management guidelines exist for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in mixed grass and sand sagebrush prairies, but there are no comprehensive management guidelines for the species in sand shinnery oak prairies. This information is paramount given unique aspects of the vegetation community, relative ecosystem drivers, and environmental variation in sand shinnery oak prairie and the species’ current status as a proposed threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. Herein, we provide a thorough synthesis of literature pertaining to the life history, habitat requirements, habitat management, and population management for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in sand shinnery oak prairie, provide management guidelines and recommendations for the species in this ecoregion, and highlight current and future research needs. Within our objectives, we place emphasis on two recently completed long-term investigations into Lesser Prairie-Chicken ecology in sand shinnery oak prairie - a 10-year vegetation data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, 2001–2011 and a 6-year Lesser Prairie-Chicken data set collected in Roosevelt County, New Mexico and Cochran, Hockley, Terry, and Yoakum counties, Texas, 2006–2012.

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Current range of the eastern population of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris). Part 1: Breeding

This paper presents the current breeding range of Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) in a series of maps and a narrative, in particular that of the eastern population, which is restricted to the states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Some conservation measures are recommended to protect this population. In light of the extensive habitat loss in the Outer Coastal Plain of these states, which comprise the areas of the population's greatest density, it is imperative that a consortium of diverse interests work together to provide sufficient habitats for this colorful native songbird.

North American Birds↗

USGS2021

Integrating wildlife habitat models with state-and-transitions models to enhance the management of rangelands for multiple objectives

State-and-transition models (STMs) are tools used in rangeland management to describe linear and nonlinear vegetation dynamics as conceptual models. STMs can be improved by including additional ecosystem services, such as wildlife habitat, so that managers can predict how local populations might respond to state changes and to illustrate the tradeoffs in managing for different ecosystem services. Our objective was to incorporate songbird density into an STM developed for sagebrush rangelands in northwest Colorado to guide local management of sagebrush birds. The STM included two shrub-dominated community phases, a native grassland state, and a shrubland and grassland phase within an exotic-dominated state. We surveyed plots for songbirds, collected a suite of vegetation indicators at each plot, and quantified songbird habitat relationships with count-based regression models. We then used the estimated models to predict songbird density based on average vegetation conditions per state or community phase. Moderate or increasing shrub cover were important predictors for shrubland-associated species, and responses to understory components varied by species. In the STM, we predicted higher densities of shrubland-associated bird species in the shrub-dominated phases and higher densities of grassland-associated bird species in the state and phase lacking shrub cover. No single state or phase captured the highest density for all songbirds, illustrating the value of alternative states. Our results also demonstrate the utility of displaying traditional wildlife count models against the range of vegetation conditions associated with each state or phase to understand how wildlife density can vary within states and phases. Our approach can assist land managers to gauge the potential impacts of land-use decisions and natural vegetation variability on wildlife, especially for species of conservation concern.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗