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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Turbidity alters pre-mating social interactions between native and invasive stream fishes

Environmental degradation can result in the loss of aquatic biodiversity if impairment promotes hybridisation between non-native and native species. Although aquatic biological invasions involving hybridisation have been attributed to elevated water turbidity, the extent to which impaired clarity influences reproductive isolation among non-native and native species is poorly understood. We examined whether turbidity influences intraspecific and interspecific pre-mating social interactions between invasive red shiner ( Cyprinella lutrensis ) and native blacktail shiner ( Cyprinella venusta ) from the Upper Coosa River Basin (U.S.A.). We found that the number or duration of conspecific and heterospecific interactions increased under turbid conditions. Additionally, we found evidence indicating that native blacktail shiner females are especially likely to interact with invasive red shiner males due to species- and sex-specific responses to turbid conditions. These findings suggest that elevated turbidity can increase pre-mating social interactions between native and invasive species, which could result in greater hybridisation and promote the genetic assimilation of native species following species introductions. Thus, integrating knowledge of species behaviour into conservation and management planning can help deter the establishment and spread of invasive species.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2018

Congruent population genetic structure but differing depths of divergence for three alpine stoneflies with similar ecology and geographic distributions

Comparative population genetic studies provide a powerful means for assessing the degree to which evolutionary histories may be congruent among taxa while also highlighting the potential for cryptic diversity within existing species. In the Rocky Mountains, three confamilial stoneflies ( Zapada glacier , Lednia tumana , and Lednia tetonica ; Plecoptera, Nemouridae) occupy cold alpine streams that are primarily fed by melting ice. Lednia tumana and L. tetonica are sister species diagnosed from systematic morphological differences, and they are endemic to areas surrounding Glacier National Park and Grand Teton National Park, respectively, in the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Zapada glacier is also present in alpine streams from Glacier National Park to the Teton Range, sometimes co‐occurring with either Lednia species. We used mitochondrial sequence data to clarify species boundaries, compare population genetic patterns, and test demographic models in a coalescent framework for the three stoneflies. We addressed four questions: (1) Is there genetic support for the morphology‐based species boundaries in Lednia ? (2) Is there genetic support for cryptic, or as‐yet undescribed, diversity within Z. glacier ? (3) Do similar geographic distributions and ecological requirements yield spatial congruence of genetic structure between high‐elevation Lednia and Z. glacier populations? (4) Is there evidence for contemporary gene flow among isolated populations in either group? Our results supported the existing taxonomy with Z. glacier and the two Lednia species differing in their depths of divergence among study regions (e.g. maximum sequence divergence within Z. glacier = 1.2% versus 5% between L. tumana and L. tetonica ). However, spatial population genetic patterns were broadly congruent, indicating stonefly populations isolated on mountaintop islands. Coalescent modelling supported the possibility of rare, extremely limited contemporary gene flow among Z. glacier populations, with no support for gene flow between L. tumana and L. tetonica . The focal stoneflies and associated assemblages occupy the highest elevation, coldest permanent alpine streams in the study region. This lotic habitat type faces an uncertain future under a diminishing alpine cryosphere. Given spatial congruence of genetic structure demonstrating unique biodiversity associated with individual alpine islands, we encourage conservation management strategies be developed and applied at corresponding spatial scales.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Aquatic macroinvertebrate community responses to wetland mitigation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Wetlands are critical components of freshwater biodiversity and provide ecosystem services, but human activities have resulted in large-scale loss of these habitats across the globe. To offset this loss, mitigation wetlands are frequently constructed, but their ability to replicate the functions of natural wetlands remains uncertain. Further, monitoring of mitigation wetlands is limited and often focused exclusively on vegetation and physical characteristics. 2. Wetland fauna are assumed to be present if suitable habitat restoration is achieved, but this assumption is rarely tested. We used the macroinvertebrate community as a proxy for wetland function to compare created mitigation wetlands, natural wetlands impacted but not destroyed by road construction activity, and unimpacted reference wetlands along a highway corridor in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Unlike most other studies of invertebrate communities in created wetlands which have occurred in warm climates, our study area has a cold temperate climate with short growing seasons. 3. We estimated macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness and used linear models to test for effects of wetland design features (wetland age, isolation, depth, vegetation, size, and pH) on invertebrate richness. We also used non-metric multidimensional scaling to examine differences in community composition among wetland types and used indicator species analysis to determine which taxa were causing observed differences. 4. Taxonomic richness of macroinvertebrates was lower in created wetlands than impacted or reference wetlands, whereas richness was similar in impacted and reference wetlands. Wetland age was positively correlated with taxonomic richness. The amount of aquatic vegetation in wetlands had the greatest influence on taxonomic richness, so that recently created wetlands with little vegetation had the simplest invertebrate communities. Community composition of invertebrates in created wetlands also differed from community composition in reference and impacted wetlands. Most notably, created wetlands lacked some passive dispersers that were common in other wetland types, although we found no relationship between taxonomic richness and wetland isolation. 5. Overall, constructed wetlands had diminished and altered macroinvertebrate communities relative to reference and impacted wetlands, suggesting that longer times may be required for wetland mitigation projects in cold temperate climates to attain full functionality.

Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Multiple dimensions of functional diversity affect stream fish β-diversity

When investigating metacommunity dynamics, functional differences among species are often assumed to be as important as environmental differences between sites in determining β-diversity. However, few studies have examined the influence of functional diversity on β-diversity. We examine the relative importance of regional functional diversity partitioned by niche dimensions and environmental variation in structuring taxonomic β-diversity of stream fishes using a large dataset of stream fish assemblages (hereafter, simply β-diversity). We predicted that both functional diversity and environmental variation play a role in determining β-diversity. We tested this prediction by modelling the patterns of stream fish β-diversity as a function of environmental variation, functional diversity and γ-richness across 10,220 sites for 329 fish species using a series of conceptual path models. Environmental variation consistently affected β-diversity across all models, whereas functional diversity and γ-richness influenced β-diversity only in some models. We show that including relevant trait differences among species in path models can improve their ability to explain β-diversity, suggesting that functional traits influence β-diversity. The ability of path models to explain β-diversity varied depending on the trait grouping included in the model, demonstrating that specific path models representing different niche dimensions can improve the ability of a model to explain β-diversity. In addition, parsing traits into different niche dimensions revealed alternative patterns of functional diversity–β-diversity relationships that otherwise would have been missed. The selection of relevant traits and linked niche dimensions is critical for detecting relationships between functional diversity and β-diversity. Using traits associated with different niche dimensions allows for the identification of niche dimensions most strongly associated with species sorting and the detection of patterns missed by focusing on a single niche dimension. Determining the niche dimensions that influence β-diversity could provide insights into the processes driving biodiversity and metacommunity dynamics, improving our ability to conserve or restore aquatic communities.

Eastern United States↗
USGS2024

Fish assemblage and functional trait responses to small-dam removal

Dams are one of the greatest threats to freshwater biodiversity and efforts to remove dams to restore riverine systems are increasing. However, dam-removal studies have primarily focused on taxonomic responses to large dam removals with little work on the functional trait responses of fish to small-dam removals; such a focus limits the application of results in regions with different taxonomic compositions. We explored taxonomic and functional trait responses of fish assemblages to two small-dam removals over 10 years using a Multiple Before After Control Impact design at a dammed and an undammed river. Eight life-history traits were used to calculate functional diversity (RaoQ) and determine the position of each fish species within a multivariate life-history space relative to three life-history strategy endpoints: opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium. The distance of each species relative to these endpoints was used to calculate community weighted means (CWM), allowing us to examine the shift in life-history strategy of a given assemblage after dam removal. Based on life-history theory, we predicted a decrease in the CWM of equilibrium strategists and an increase in the CWM opportunistic strategists after dam removal. For the dammed river, we observed changes in assemblage structure at both the control and impact sites driven primarily by shifts from a lentic to lotic assemblage, with the most apparent change occurring in the formerly impounded sites. These changes tended to occur within 1 year, suggesting rapid colonization by lotic species after habitat change. By contrast, no change in assemblage structure was found for the undammed river, suggesting that dam removal was the primary driver of the shifts in assemblage structure observed in the dammed river. We found no change in the CWM of periodic strategists or RaoQ of all life-history traits at any site after dam removal. Based on CWM, life-history strategies shifted in response to dam removal at impounded sites where equilibrium strategists decreased and opportunistic strategists tended to increase after the impounded sites changed from a stable lentic environment to an unstable lotic environment, supporting predictions made by life-history theory. Our results suggest that small-dam removal may provide ecological benefits by restoring fish assemblages to a more natural riverine state and reversing the negative effects of dam construction on the ecosystem. We demonstrate that combining both trait-based and taxonomic approaches can improve our ecological understanding of the impacts of dam removal on fish assemblages and provide relevant data for local management.

South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Fish size structures in lakes of the Lower Mississippi River floodplain

The Lower Mississippi River has a floodplain that includes >1350 perennial lakes carved by shifts in river courses and other hydro-fluvial processes over eons. Notwithstanding their similar provenances, these waterbodies exhibit an immense variety of morphologies and successional stages that illustrate their natural trajectory from aquatic to forested wetlands. A result of this geographical, morphological and temporal diversity is dynamic and varied fish communities. We examined how size structures of fish communities in these floodplain lakes were associated with key in-lake and off-lake environmental drivers. Fish lengths were collected with standardised procedures in a sample of 30 of these lakes to construct a lake-by-length group matrix. Likewise, in-lake and off-lake environmental descriptors were collected to construct a lake-by-covariate matrix. Distance-based linear models were used to assess associations between fish size structure and environmental descriptors. Smaller fish were typically associated with increasing levels of turbidity, chlorophyll- a , phycocyanin and surrounding agriculture. Shallow, hypereutrophic floodplain lakes associated with agricultural landscapes and reduced connectivity experience harsh physicochemical environments. These conditions appeared to hinder the formation of sustained fish communities but may confer a survival advantage to juveniles or small short-lived species. Conversely, larger fish were associated with increasing lake depth, water clarity, connectivity, and extent of surrounding forests-wetlands. Enhanced stability and size structure were observed in communities residing in deeper and clearer lakes, suggesting that these conditions facilitated the development of longer-lived species spanning multiple age groups. The enhanced connectivity that facilitated this increased stability also permitted the presence of larger itinerant species. Size-structure assessments can serve as a valuable ecological and biodiversity indicator in floodplain lakes. Size-structure assessments could supplement and, depending on objectives, even supplant conventional taxonomic analyses, and enhance surveillance of this vast and important natural resource.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗
USGS2012

Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models

Concern over rapid global changes and the potential for interactions among multiple threats are prompting scientists to combine multiple modelling approaches to understand impacts on biodiversity. A relatively recent development is the combination of species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and dynamic population models to predict the relative and combined impacts of climate change, land‐use change, and altered disturbance regimes on species' extinction risk. Each modelling component introduces its own source of uncertainty through different parameters and assumptions, which, when combined, can result in compounded uncertainty that can have major implications for management. Although some uncertainty analyses have been conducted separately on various model components – such as climate predictions, species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and population models – a unified sensitivity analysis comparing various sources of uncertainty in combined modelling approaches is needed to identify the most influential and problematic assumptions. We estimated the sensitivities of long‐run population predictions to different ecological assumptions and parameter settings for a rare and endangered annual plant species ( Acanthomintha ilicifolia , or San Diego thornmint). Uncertainty about habitat suitability predictions, due to the choice of species distribution model, contributed most to variation in predictions about long‐run populations.

California↗
USGS2013

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2013

Convergent responses of nitrogen and phosphorus resorption to nitrogen inputs in a semiarid grassland

Human activities have significantly altered nitrogen (N) availability in most terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences for community composition and ecosystem functioning. Although studies of how changes in N availability affect biodiversity and community composition are relatively common, much less remains known about the effects of N inputs on the coupled biogeochemical cycling of N and phosphorus (P), and still fewer data exist regarding how increased N inputs affect the internal cycling of these two elements in plants. Nutrient resorption is an important driver of plant nutrient economies and of the quality of litter plants produce. Accordingly, resorption patterns have marked ecological implications for plant population and community fitness, as well as for ecosystem nutrient cycling. In a semiarid grassland in northern China, we studied the effects of a wide range of N inputs on foliar nutrient resorption of two dominant grasses, Leymus chinensis and Stipa grandis . After 4 years of treatments, N and P availability in soil and N and P concentrations in green and senesced grass leaves increased with increasing rates of N addition. Foliar N and P resorption significantly decreased along the N addition gradient, implying a resorption-mediated, positive plant–soil feedback induced by N inputs. Furthermore, N : P resorption ratios were negatively correlated with the rates of N addition, indicating the sensitivity of plant N and P stoichiometry to N inputs. Taken together, the results demonstrate that N additions accelerate ecosystem uptake and turnover of both N and P in the temperate steppe and that N and P cycles are coupled in dynamic ways. The convergence of N and P resorption in response to N inputs emphasizes the importance of nutrient resorption as a pathway by which plants and ecosystems adjust in the face of increasing N availability.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2016

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Tundra be dammed: Beaver colonization of the Arctic

Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293 km 2 ) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Climatically driven changes in primary production propagate through trophic levels

Climate and land‐use change are the major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Their effects are particularly acute for wide‐ranging consumers, but little is known about how these factors interact to affect the abundance of large carnivores and their herbivore prey. We analyzed population densities of a primary and secondary consumer (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus , and mountain lion, Puma concolor ) across a climatic gradient in western North America by combining satellite‐based maps of plant productivity with estimates of animal abundance and foraging area derived from Global Positioning Systems telemetry data (GPS). Mule deer density exhibited a positive, linear relationship with plant productivity ( r 2 = 0.58), varying by a factor of 18 across the climate‐vegetation gradient (range: 38–697 individuals/100 km 2 ). Mountain lion home range size decreased in response to increasing primary productivity and consequent changes in the abundance of their herbivore prey (range: 20–450 km 2 ). This pattern resulted in a strong, positive association between plant productivity and mountain lion density ( r 2 = 0.67). Despite varying densities, the ratio of prey to predator remained constant across the climatic gradient (mean ± SE = 363 ± 29 mule deer/mountain lion), suggesting that the determinacy of the effect of primary productivity on consumer density was conserved across trophic levels. As droughts and longer term climate changes reduce the suitability of marginal habitats, consumer home ranges will expand in order for individuals to meet basic nutritional requirements. These changes portend decreases in the abundance of large‐bodied, wide‐ranging wildlife through climatically driven reductions in carrying capacity, as well as increased human–wildlife interactions stemming from anthropogenic land use and habitat fragmentation.

Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, Mojave Desert↗
USGS2021

Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years

Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark–recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one‐half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top‐ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller‐bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature‐associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2021

Linking climate niches across seasons to assess population vulnerability in a migratory bird

Global loss of biodiversity has placed new urgency on the need to understand factors regulating species response to rapid environmental change. While specialists are often less resilient to rapid environmental change than generalists, species-level analyses may obscure the extent of specialization when locally adapted populations vary in climate tolerances. Until recently, quantification of the degree of climate specialization in migratory birds below the species level was hindered by a lack of genomic and tracking information, but recent technological advances have helped to overcome these barriers. Here we take a genome-wide genetic approach to mapping population-specific migratory routes and quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct populations of a migratory bird, the willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ), which exhibits variation in the severity of population declines across its breeding range. While our sample size is restricted to the number of genetically distinct populations within the species, our results support the idea that locally adapted populations of the willow flycatcher with narrow climatic niches across seasons are already federally listed as endangered or in steep decline, while populations with broader climatic niches have remained stable in recent decades. Overall, this work highlights the value of quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct groups across time and space when attempting to understand the factors that facilitate or constrain the response of locally adapted populations to rapid environmental change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make ‘Functional Types’ more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of ‘Plant Functional Types’ (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, i.e. to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. We review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages (‘Lineage Functional Types’) will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2023

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change (‘global change’) are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modelled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how this model projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999–2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005–2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modelled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages’ intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

Bringing traits back in the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift–trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Global Change Biology↗