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Factors affecting visibility rate of aerial waterfowl surveys in the Mississippi alluvial valley

Because visibility bias can confound attempts to detect changes in abundance, we evaluated factors that affect visibility rate in aerial surveys of wintering waterfowl. We placed waterfowl decoys in 32 2- x 0.25-km strip transects in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) during February 1990 and 1991 and observed the decoys under different experimental conditions. Visibility rate was influenced ( P < 0.10) by habitat, transect width, and decoy group size. We simulated variation in use of habitat and found that changes in use between open and wooded wetlands would cause changes in visibility rate and affect the power to detect a change in abundance. The effect of changes in visibility rate on likelihood of detecting population change depended on the magnitude and direction of population change and precision of the population index. For transect surveys of wintering ducks in the MAV we recommend reducing transect width from 250 to 150 m on each side of the aircraft and restricting comparisons between years when 70% of the population is likely to be distributed in open wetlands. Improved techniques for estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl are also needed so use of questionable population indices can be avoided.

Mississippi↗

Effects of canine parvovirus on gray wolves in Minnesota

Long-term effects of disease on wild animal population demography is not well documented. We studied a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in a 2,060-km 2 area of Minnesota for 15 years to determine its response to canine parvovirus (CPV). The CPV had little effect ( P > 0.05) on wolf population size while epizootic during 1979-83. However, after CPV became enzootic, percentage of pups captured during summer-fall 1984-93 and changes in subsequent winter wolf numbers were each inversely related to the serological prevalence of CPV in wolves captured during July-November ( r 2 = 0.39 and 0.72, P = 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively). The CPV antibody prevalence in adult wolves increased to 87% in 1993 (r2 = 0.28, P = 0.05). However, because population level remained stable, CPV-induced mortality appeared to compensate for other mortality factors such as starvation. We -predict that the winter wolf population will decline when CPV prevalence in adults consistently exceeds 76%. The CPV may become important in limiting wolf populations.

Minnesota↗

Caribou calf mortality in Denali National Park, Alaska

Calf mortality is a major component of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) population dynamics, but little is known about the timing or causes of calf losses, or of characteristics that predispose calves to mortality. During 1984-87, we radiocollared 226 calves (≤3 days old) in the Denali Caribou Herd (DCH), an unhunted population utilized by a natural complement of predators, to determine the extent, timing, and causes of calf mortality and to evaluate influences of year, sex, birthdate, and birth mass on those losses. Overall, 39% of radio-collared calves died as neonates (≤15 days old), and 98% of those deaths were attributed to predation. Most neonatal deaths (85%) occurred within 8 days of birth. Few deaths occurred after the neonatal period (5, 10, and 0% of calves instrumented died during 16-30, 31-150, and >150 days of age, respectively). Survival of neonates was lower (P = 0.038) in 1985, following a severe winter, than during the other 3 years. In years other than 1985, calves born during the peak of calving (approx 50% of the total, born 5-8 days after calving onset) experienced higher (P < 0.001) neonatal survival than did other calves. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and unknown large predators (i.e., grizzly bears or wolves) accounted for 49, 29, and 16% of the neonatal deaths, respectively. The rate of bear-caused mortalities declined (P < 0.001) with calf age, and bears killed few calves >10 days old. Wolf predation was not related (P > 0.05) to calf age and peaked 10 days after onset of calving. Grizzly bear and wolf predation on neonates during the calving season was a limiting factor for the Denali Caribou Herd.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Use of solicited bands and separation of hunting and natural mortality: a comment

We previously presented (Conroy 1985, Conroy et al. 1989) models for analysis of band recovery data stratified into those voluntarily reported and those obtained by solicitation, similar to models described by Pollock et al. (1994). We discuss differences between the 2 modeling approaches and suggest designs and analyses involving overlapping samples of standard and reward bands to enable adjustment for temporal and geographic variation in reporting and solicitation rates,

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

The effectiveness of tape playbacks in estimating Black Rail densities

Tape playback is often the only efficient technique to survey for secretive birds. We measured the vocal responses and movements of radio-tagged black rails (Laterallus jamaicensis; 26 M, 17 F) to playback of vocalizations at 2 sites in Florida during the breeding seasons of 1992-95. We used coefficients from logistic regression equations to model probability of a response conditional to the birds' sex. nesting status, distance to playback source, and time of survey. With a probability of 0.811, nonnesting male black rails were ))lost likely to respond to playback, while nesting females were the least likely to respond (probability = 0.189). We used linear regression to determine daily, monthly and annual variation in response from weekly playback surveys along a fixed route during the breeding seasons of 1993-95. Significant sources of variation in the regression model were month (F3.48 = 3.89, P = 0.014), year (F2.48 = 9.37, P < 0.001), temperature (F1.48 = 5.44, P = 0.024), and month X year (F5.48 = 2.69, P = 0.031). The model was highly significant (P < 0.001) and explained 54% of the variation of mean response per survey period (r2 = 0.54). We combined response probability data from radiotagged black rails with playback survey route data to provide a density estimate of 0.25 birds/ha for the St. Johns National Wildlife Refuge. The relation between the number of black rails heard during playback surveys to the actual number present was influenced by a number of variables. We recommend caution when making density estimates from tape playback surveys

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Alaska↗

Statistical power analysis in wildlife research

Statistical power analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of research efforts and to clarify research results. Power analysis is most valuable in the design or planning phases of research efforts. Such prospective (a priori) power analyses can be used to guide research design and to estimate the number of samples necessary to achieve a high probability of detecting biologically significant effects. Retrospective (a posteriori) power analysis has been advocated as a method to increase information about hypothesis tests that were not rejected. However, estimating power for tests of null hypotheses that were not rejected with the effect size observed in the study is incorrect; these power estimates will always be ≤ 0.50 when bias adjusted and have no relation to true power. Therefore, retrospective power estimates based on the observed effect size for hypothesis tests that were not rejected are misleading; retrospective power estimates are only meaningful when based on effect sizes other than the observed effect size, such as those effect sizes hypothesized to be biologically significant. Retrospective power analysis can be used effectively to estimate the number of samples or effect size that would have been necessary for a completed study to have rejected a specific null hypothesis. Simply presenting confidence intervals can provide additional information about null hypotheses that were not rejected, including information about the size of the true effect and whether or not there is adequate evidence to 'accept' a null hypothesis as true. We suggest that (1) statistical power analyses be routinely incorporated into research planning efforts to increase their efficiency, (2) confidence intervals be used in lieu of retrospective power analyses for null hypotheses that were not rejected to assess the likely size of the true effect, (3) minimum biologically significant effect sizes be used for all power analyses, and (4) if retrospective power estimates are to be reported, then the α -level, effect sizes, and sample sizes used in calculations must also be reported.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Comparison of tree basal area and canopy cover in habitat models: Subalpine forest

Canopy cover and basal area are 2 common measures of tree cover used in forest wildlife habitat models and resource selection studies. When choosing between these 2 measures, it is important to recognize that they may differentially estimate relative cover of coexisting tree species due to differences in bole diameter distributions, crown overlap, and crown widths as a function of bole diameter. I found moderate agreement (multivariate p = 0.62, P < 0.0001) between lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) composition estimated by relative canopy cover and relative basal area in young to old-growth stands (n = 31) in subalpine forest of northcentral Colorado. However, differences between stand compositions estimated by relative canopy cover and relative basal area (average = 17%, range = 1-44%) were predictable based on multiple regression models of canopy cover as a function of basal area and trees/ha. I attributed most (11 of 14) above average deviations (>17%) to differences in diameter distributions among species in mature to old-growth (>200 yr) stands. Low densities of large diameter lodgepole pine or Engelmann spruce were a greater proportion of the basal area than of the canopy cover, while the converse occurred for higher densities of small and large diameter subalpine fir. Only 3 of 14 deviations >17% were attributed to species differences in crown overlap and crown width as a function of bole diameter, which occurred for young (22 yr) and intermediate-aged (48-80 yr) stands. I recommend use of basal area rather than canopy cover to estimate tree cover when it is desirable to emphasize large, uncommon trees that are resources used by the wildlife species of interest or that are indicators of important forest disturbance and successional conditions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

True metabolizable energy for wood ducks from acorns compared to other waterfowl foods

Acorns of bottomland red oaks (Quercus spp.) are an important food of North American wood ducks (Aix sponsa). Barras et al. (1996) demonstrated that female wood ducks selected willow oak (Q. phellos) acorns over other species. We measured true metabolizable energy (TME) derived by captive, wild-strain, adult female wood ducks from acorns of willow oak, water oak (Q. nigra), cherrybark oak (Q. pagoda), and pin oak (Q. palustris) to determine whether female wood ducks ' preference for willow oak acorns was related to TME. Estimates of TME within acorn species were relatively precise, yet we did not detect variation in TME among acorn species (P=0.31); hence, we estimated TME across species (2.76±0.033 [SE] kcal/g dry mass; n=34). We concluded that TME apparently did not explain female wood ducks ' preference for willow oak acorns and hypothesized that morphological characteristics of willow oak acorns may be proximate cues related to selection by wood ducks . We also summarized known TME estimates for acorns fed to wood ducks and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and natural and agricultural foods fed to mallards, northern pintails (A. acuta), blue-winged teal (A. discors), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis). We found that acorns and moist-soil plant seeds and tubers provided, on average, about 76% of the TME in agricultural seeds. Thus, bottomland-hardwood and moist-soil habitats have potential to provide significant amounts of dietary energy , as well as greater diversity of foods and nutrients than croplands. Researchers should continue to determine TME of common foods (plant and animal) of waterfowl , and use TME in estimating waterfowl habitat carrying capacity (e.g., Reinecke et al. 1989). Additionally, large-scale, reliable estimates of plant and animal food availability in bottomland-hardwood and moist-soil habitats are needed to evaluate carrying capacity of landscapes important to waterfowl , such as the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV).

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Short-term bird response to harvesting switchgrass for biomass in Iowa

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) provides habitat for grassland birds, but as contracts expire, some CRP fields might be returned to rowcrop production. One alternative to returning CRP fields to rowcrops is to produce switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) for use as a biomass fuel. Because the biomass is harvested during the fall and winter, breeding birds would not be directly affected by mowing the fields bur might be influenced by changes in vegetation structure resulting from the harvest. We evaluated bird abundances and nest success in totally harvested, partially harvested (alternating cut and uncut strips), and nonharvested CRP switchgrass fields in southern Iowa, USA, in 1999 and 2000. Species richness did not differ among harvest treatments. Abundances of most species (16 of 18) were not affected by the harvesting of switchgrass fields, and strip width did not affect bird numbers in strip-harvested fields. Grasshopper sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ) were more abundant in harvested portions of fields, and more sedge wrens ( Cistothorus platensis ) were recorded in nonharvested areas. The residual vegetation in nonharvested areas provided nest cover for species that begin nesting early in the season (e.g., northern harrier [Circus cyaneus] and ring-necked pheasant [ Phasianus colchicus ]). Nest success rates of grasshopper sparrows and common yellowthroats ( Geothlypis trichas ) were similar to those reported by other studies in switchgrass fields and might be sufficient to maintain stable populations. In general, switchgrass biomass fields create breeding habitat for some grassland birds, and a mixture of harvested and nonharvested fields would be more beneficial to grassland birds than totally harvesting or partially harvesting all switchgrass fields.

Iowa↗

Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ± 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ≥ 9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

Alaska↗

Nest predation on black-tailed prairie dog colonies

Nest predation is the principal cause of mortality for many grassland birds. Predation rates may be higher on prairie dog colonies because they may have less available nesting cover and may increase predator abundance. We compared 14-day nest predation rates for 1,764 artificial nests on 102 black-tailed prairie dog ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) colonies and their paired off-colony sites (similar habitat lacking prairie dogs) from 14 May to 26 June 1998 in South Dakota and Wyoming. Predation rates on colonies (66.2 ± 2.2%; x̄ ± SE) were 29.5% higher than at off-colony sites (51.1 ± 2.7%). Nesting cover on colonies was less dense and more uniform in structure and regression analysis showed differences in nest predation rates were correlated with estimates of mean nesting cover. Avian species associated with prairie dog colonies had smaller clutches and more broods/year than species associated with off-colony sites, suggesting a mechanism that may help compensate for increased risk of nest failure. Factors that influence predator-prey dynamics (e.g., habitat fragmentation) or foraging success (e.g., insect availability) also may help explain higher risk of nest predation on prairie dog colonies. Our conclusions support others in recommending protection of large, intact prairie dog ecosystems.

Colorado, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming↗

Relationships of habitat patch size to predator community and survival of duck nests

We studied duck nest success and predator community composition in relation to size of discrete patches of nesting cover in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States in 1993-95. We focused on nests in uplands that were seeded to perennial grasses and forbs and enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. We estimated daily survival rates (DSRs) of upland duck nests and indices of activity for red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), coyotes (Canis latrans), American badgers (Taxidea taxus), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), and Franklin's ground squirrels (Spermophilus franklinii), and related these variables to habitat patch size. The effect of patch size (small vs. large) on estimated annual mean DSR was dependent on date of nest initiation (early vs. late) and year. Examination of within-year comparisons for early and late nests suggested that DSR was generally greater in larger habitat patches. Activity indices for the 5 mammalian nest predators were influenced differently by year, location, and patch size. Activity indices of the red fox were greatest in small patches. Coyote indices were the most inconsistent, demonstrating a year X location X patch size interaction. Activity indices of the striped skunk and American badger varied only among years. Franklin's ground squirrel indices were affected by study area location, with higher indices in the southeast than the northwest. Red fox activity was weakly correlated with that of the striped skunk and coyote. Although a positive relationship between habitat patch size and nest success probably exists, we believe the experiment to fully test this hypothesis will continue to be elusive.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Sampling designs for carnivore scent-station surveys

Scent stations usually are deployed in clusters to expedite data collection and increase the number of stations that can be operated for a given cost. Presumed benefits of cluster sampling may not be realized, however, unless cluster sizes are chosen with respect to sampling variation within and among clusters. To encourage and facilitate the use of efficient designs and reporting standards, we used data collected in Minnesota, USA, during 1986-1991 to (1) compare the performance of survey designs with various numbers of stations/cluster; (2) estimate relations between required sample sizes and visitation rates, changes in visitation rates, and error rates; and (3) compare 2 measures of carnivore response: proportions of scent stations ( station index) and proportions of clusters (line index) visited by red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis). Despite broad ecological differences between the species, results were similar for foxes and skunks. Foxes visited 2-21% of stations and 15-84% of lines. Skunks visited 1-16% of stations and 3-54% of lines. Station and line indices were closely related (r 2 > 0.86) and were similarly sensitive indicators of change in visitation rates. Low visitation rates greatly limited the potential usefulness of scent - station surveys because required minimum sample sizes increased exponentially as visitation rates decreased. For visitation rates below 5-10%, required minimum sample sizes were very large and difficult to anticipate. Relative to single-stage sampling , cluster sampling with 10 stations/cluster inflated sample variances, hence sample sizes required to achieve a fixed level of precision, by a factor of 1.6-2.2. Cluster sampling is advantageous only when cost savings permit increases in sample sizes that outweigh concomitant increases in sampling variability. Costs and sampling variation both should be considered when choosing survey designs , and designs should be evaluated and refined as data accumulate.

Minnesota↗

Habitat use and movements of repatriated Wyoming toads

We studied habitat use and movements of a repatriated population of federally endangered Wyoming toads (Bufo baxteri) after the breeding season at Mortenson Lake, Albany County, Wyoming , USA. We followed 8 adult toads using telemetry (n = 68 relocations) during periods of activity and observed 59 post-metamorphic juvenile toads (n = 59 locations). Adult toads used habitat with a greater mean vegetation canopy cover (mean = 52.6%) than juveniles (mean = 39.20%). We found adults farther from the shoreline (mean = 1.32 m) than juveniles (mean = 1.04 m). Substrates used by toads had a mean surface temperature of 20.31°C for adults and 23.05°C for juveniles. We found most adult and juvenile toads on saturated substrates. All adult toads sampled did not move outside of a 30 x 500 m area along the east-to-south shore where they were captured. Toads were active diurnally through the end of October. We found toads torpid at night. We compared our results to a similar study of the historic population and found that adult toads of the current population used denser vegetation than those of the historic population. Unlike many bufonids, terrestrial stages of the Wyoming toad appear to depend on saturated substrates. The best logistic regression predictors of adult and juvenile toad presence were surface temperature and distance to shore. Survey transects within the moist margin of the lake (≤10 m from water) and after substrates have reached temperatures ≥20°C will likely yield more detections.

Wyoming↗