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At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Cross-shore velocity shear, eddies and heterogeneity in water column properties over fringing coral reefs: West Maui, Hawaii

A multi-day hydrographic survey cruise was conducted to acquire spatially extensive, but temporally limited, high-resolution, three-dimensional measurements of currents, temperature, salinity and turbidity off West Maui in the summer of 2003 to better understand coastal dynamics along a complex island shoreline with coral reefs. These data complement long-term, high-resolution tide, wave, current, temperature, salinity and turbidity measurements made at a number of fixed locations in the study area starting in 2001. Analyses of these hydrographic data, in conjunction with numerous field observations, evoke the following conceptual model of water and turbidity flux along West Maui. Wave- and wind-driven flows appear to be the primary control on flow over shallower portions of the reefs while tidal and subtidal currents dominate flow over the outer portions of the reefs and insular shelf. When the direction of these flows counter one another, which is quite common, they cause a zone of cross-shore horizontal shear and often form a front, with turbid, lower-salinity water inshore of the front and clear, higher-salinity water offshore of the front. It is not clear whether these zones of high shear and fronts are the cause or the result of the location of the fore reef, but they appear to be correlated alongshore over relatively large horizontal distances (orders of kilometers). When two flows converge or when a single flow is bathymetrically steered, eddies can be generated that, in the absence of large ocean surface waves, tend to accumulate material. Areas of higher turbidity and lower salinity tend to correlate with regions of poor coral health or the absence of well-developed reefs, suggesting that the oceanographic processes that concentrate and/or transport nutrients, contaminants, low-salinity water or suspended sediment might strongly influence coral reef ecosystem health and sustainability.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2012

Storm-induced inner-continental shelf circulation and sediment transport: Long Bay, South Carolina

Long Bay is a sediment-starved, arcuate embayment located along the US East Coast connecting both South and North Carolina. In this region the rates and pathways of sediment transport are important because they determine the availability of sediments for beach nourishment, seafloor habitat, and navigation. The impact of storms on sediment transport magnitude and direction were investigated during the period October 2003–April 2004 using bottom mounted flow meters, acoustic backscatter sensors and rotary sonars deployed at eight sites offshore of Myrtle Beach, SC, to measure currents, water levels, surface waves, salinity, temperature, suspended sediment concentrations, and bedform morphology. Measurements identify that sediment mobility is caused by waves and wind driven currents from three predominant types of storm patterns that pass through this region: (1) cold fronts, (2) warm fronts and (3) low-pressure storms. The passage of a cold front is accompanied by a rapid change in wind direction from primarily northeastward to southwestward. The passage of a warm front is accompanied by an opposite change in wind direction from mainly southwestward to northeastward. Low-pressure systems passing offshore are accompanied by a change in wind direction from southwestward to southeastward as the offshore storm moves from south to north. During the passage of cold fronts more sediment is transported when winds are northeastward and directed onshore than when the winds are directed offshore, creating a net sediment flux to the north–east. Likewise, even though the warm front has an opposite wind pattern, net sediment flux is typically to the north–east due to the larger fetch when the winds are northeastward and directed onshore. During the passage of low-pressure systems strong winds, waves, and currents to the south are sustained creating a net sediment flux southwestward. During the 3-month deployment a total of 8 cold fronts, 10 warm fronts, and 10 low-pressure systems drove a net sediment flux southwestward. Analysis of a 12-year data record from a local buoy shows an average of 41 cold fronts, 32 warm fronts, and 26 low-pressure systems per year. The culmination of these events would yield a cumulative net inner-continental shelf transport to the south–west, a trend that is further verified by sediment textural analysis and bedform morphology on the inner-continental shelf.

South Carolina↗
USGS2026

Foraging benefits promote fitness in migratory mule deer

Although migration is widespread among ungulates, the fitness benefits associated with different migratory tactics have rarely been documented. Here, we evaluated a 9-year dataset on a migratory population of mule deer to test the hypothesis that long-distance migration provides access to seasonal forage which translates into demographic benefits. Mule deer that migrated long (>130 km) and medium distances (50–130 km) accessed higher forage quality and thus gained 1.3–2.7 times more fat over the growing season compared to mule deer that remained year-round as residents within a desert ecosystem. Elevated levels of fat translated to ∼20% higher probability of adult annual survival than residents. Mule deer that remained year-round in the desert portion of the study area were so resource-limited that they raised fawns at the expense of their own survival. Due to their higher levels of fat, annual survival, and fetal rates, migrants showed more robust population growth (λ = 1.03) compared to residents, which exhibited projected declines in population size over time (λ = 0.95). These results support the notion that migration translates into demographic benefits and highlight the urgent conservation work necessary to sustain diverse ungulate migrations amid habitat alteration due to climate change and an expanding web of linear barriers to movement.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Temporal and spatial distributions of cold-water corals in the Drake Passage: insights from the last 35,000 years

Scleractinian corals have a global distribution ranging from shallow tropical seas to the depths of the Southern Ocean. Although this distribution is indicative of the corals having a tolerance to a wide spectrum of environmental conditions, individual species seem to be restricted to a much narrower range of ecosystem variables. One way to ascertain the tolerances of corals, with particular focus on the potential impacts of changing climate, is to reconstruct their growth history across a range of environmental regimes. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of the solitary scleractinian corals Desmophyllum dianthus, Gardineria antarctica, Balanophyllia malouinensis, Caryophyllia spp. and Flabellum spp. from five sites in the Drake Passage which cross the major frontal zones. A rapid reconnaissance radiocarbon method was used to date more than 850 individual corals. Coupled with U-Th dating, an age range of present day back to more than 100 thousand years was established for corals in the region. Within this age range there are distinct changes in the temporal and spatial distributions of these corals, both with depth and latitude, and on millennial timescales. Two major patterns that emerge are: (1) D. dianthus populations show clear variability in their occurrence through time depending on the latitudinal position within the Drake Passage. North of the Subantarctic Front, D. dianthus first appears in the late deglaciation (~17,000 years ago) and persists to today. South of the Polar Front, in contrast, early deglacial periods, with a few modern occurrences. A seamount site between the two fronts exhibits characteristics similar to both the northern and southern sites. This shift across the frontal zones within one species cannot yet be fully explained, but it is likely to be linked to changes in surface productivity, subsurface oxygen concentrations, and carbonate saturation state. (2) at locations where multiple genera were dated, differences in age and depth distribution of the populations provide clear evidence that each genus has unique environmental requirements to sustain its population.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗
USGS2013

Nature's refineries — Metals and metalloids in arc volcanoes

Chemical data for fumaroles and for atmospheric gas and ash plumes from active arc volcanoes provide glimpses of the rates of release of metal and metalloids, such as Tl and Cd, from shallow and mid-crust magmas. Data from copper deposits formed in ancient volcanoes at depths of up to about 1500 m in the fractures below paleo-fumaroles, and at around 2000–4000 m in association with sub-volcanic intrusions (porphyry copper deposits) provide evidence of sub-surface deposition of Cu–Au–Ag–Mo and a range of other minor elements including Te, Se, As and Sb. These deposits, or ‘sinks’, of metals consistently record sustained histories of magmatic gas streaming through volcanic systems interspersed by continuing intrusive and eruptive activity. Here we integrate data from ancient and modern volcanic systems and show that the fluxes of metals and metalloids are controlled by a) the maintenance of fracture permeability in the stressed crust below volcanoes and b) the chemical processes that are triggered as magmatic gas, initially undersaturated with metals and metalloids, expands from lithostatic to very low pressure conditions through fracture arrays. The recognition of gas streaming may also account for the phenomenon of ‘excess degassing’, and defines an integral, but generally understated, component of active volcanic systems – a volcanic gas core – that is likely to be integral to the progression of eruptions to Plinean state. Destabilization of solvated molecular metal and metalloid species in magmatic gas mixtures and changes in their redox state are triggered, as it expands to the surface by abrupt pressure drops, or throttles' in the fracture array that guides expansion to the surface. The electronically harder, low electronegativity metals, such as copper and iron, deposit rapidly in response to expansion followed more slowly by arsenic with antimony as sulfosalts. Heavy, large radius, softer elements such as bismuth, lead, and thallium along with cadmium are strongly fractionated along the way, eventually venting their excess along with SO 2 , CO 2 , and other components of the carrier gas, into the atmosphere. These elements, many of which are toxic, may also be dispersed by mixing with groundwater in the permeable crust below volcanoes and generate potential health risks due to Hg, As, and Se contamination of drinking water resources.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2023

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions , submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Earth Science Reviews↗
USGS2024

A spatiotemporal optimization engine for prescribed burning in the Southeast US

Many ecosystems in the Southeast US are dependent upon frequent low-intensity surface fires to sustain native biodiversity, ecosystem services, and endangered species populations. Today, landscape-scale prescribed fire is required to manage these systems for conservation objectives and to mitigate wildland fire risk. Successful application of prescribed fire in this region requires careful planning and assessment of the risks and tradeoffs involved when deciding whether or not to conduct a burn. Many of these risks are closely tied to ambient environmental conditions and are reflected in sets of ‘prescription’ parameters that define safe and effective operating conditions to meet objectives or regulatory requirements. To facilitate effective decision making and acknowledge growing uncertainties related to climate change effects on wildland fire operations, we developed a spatiotemporal optimization engine to identify near-term optimal burning opportunities for prescribed fire implementation. By mining historical 3-day numerical weather forecasts and observation-based weather data for 2015–2021, we have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model for forecast verification that provides calibrated daily weather forecasts and joint uncertainty estimates on meteorological variables of interest, with the latter serving as a measure of risk associated with prescribed fire activities. Burn allocation decisions are then optimized by considering this risk jointly with the utility of burning a particular habitat parcel. The initial iteration of the optimization engine is demonstrated through a case study of short-term meteorological conditions for the Eglin Air Force Base, located in Florida, USA. Results indicate agreement between the optimization engine and the observed past decision-making, with the largest divergences likely arising primarily from differences between utility functions presumed important and used to develop the optimization engine versus the true utility functions driving management behavior in practice.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Accounting for the ecosystem services of migratory species: Quantifying migration support and spatial subsidies

Migratory species support ecosystem process and function in multiple areas, establishing ecological linkages between their different habitats. As they travel, migratory species also provide ecosystem services to people in many different locations. Previous research suggests there may be spatial mismatches between locations where humans use services and the ecosystems that produce them. This occurs with migratory species, between the areas that most support the species' population viability – and hence their long-term ability to provide services – and the locations where species provide the most ecosystem services. This paper presents a conceptual framework for estimating how much a particular location supports the provision of ecosystem services in other locations, and for estimating the extent to which local benefits are dependent upon other locations. We also describe a method for estimating the net payment, or subsidy, owed by or to a location that balances benefits received and support provided by locations throughout the migratory range of multiple species. The ability to quantify these spatial subsidies could provide a foundation for the establishment of markets that incentivize cross-jurisdictional cooperative management of migratory species. It could also provide a mechanism for resolving conflicts over the sustainable and equitable allocation of exploited migratory species.

Ecological Economics↗
USGS2018

Quantification of the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem

An important issue in biodiversity valuation is gaining a better understanding of how biodiversity conservation affects economic activities and human welfare. Quantifying the economic benefits of biodiversity for human well-being is not straightforward. Here, we expand the ecosystem service cascade by (i) attributing a methodology to the different steps of the cascade to assess the effects of changes in functional group diversity on economic activities; (ii) including multiple attributes for defining functional diversity and (iii) integrating a dynamic ecological model simulating complex interactions and feedbacks between species with an economic model assessing the effects of changes in functional group diversity for gross revenues. The stepwise methodological framework integrates a production function approach with a market price-based approach in order to investigate the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem. The methodology is applied to estimate the relationship between the gross economic value of Chinook salmon (Pacific Northwest, United States) and the diversity of freshwater macroinvertebrates. The results of our analysis emphasize the importance of biological diversity for sustaining ecosystem goods and services. The analysis provides a tractable framework for quantitatively exploring the economic consequences of changes in functional group diversity.

Ecological Economics↗
USGS2024

The economics of decarbonizing Costa Rica's agriculture, forestry and other land uses sectors

In 2018, Costa Rica demonstrated its commitment to the Paris Agreement and published its Decarbonization Plan for achieving zero net emissions by the year 2050. We evaluate the impacts of the country's strategy for decarbonizing its Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sectors by coupling the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework with high-resolution spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM+ESM). Our results show that decarbonization of AFOLU would simultaneously enhance carbon storage, water purification, water regulation and erosion mitigation ecosystem services. Moreover, the positive cumulative wealth impact of decarbonization would be approximately US$7.27 billion by 2050 while lifting an additional 3810 individuals out of poverty. From a public investment perspective, decarbonization would have a fiscally neutral impact with the economic benefits sufficient in magnitude to off-set policy implementation costs and generate economic returns of over US$852 million when changes in natural capital stocks and environmental quality are considered. This application to Costa Rica is the first integrated economy-wide analysis of a growing number of decarbonization plans globally. The IEEM+ESM approach provides an integrated framework for analyzing decarbonization plans and can be used to refine AFOLU mitigation strategies to capitalize on synergies and minimize negative trade-offs across the three dimensions of wealth and sustainable economic development, namely economy, society and the environment.

Ecological Economics↗
USGS2014

Temporal variation in development of ecosystem services from oyster reef restoration

Restoration ecology relies heavily on ecosystem development theories that generally assume development of fully functioning natural systems over time, but often fail to identify the time-frame required for provision of desired functions, or acknowledge different pathways of functional development. In estuaries, a decline of overall habitat quality and functioning has led to significant efforts to restore critical ecosystem services, recently through the creation and restoration of oyster reefs. Oyster reef restoration generally occurs with goals of (1) increasing water quality via filtration through sustainable oyster recruitment, (2) stabilizing shorelines, and (3) creating and enhancing critical estuarine habitat for fish and invertebrates. We restored over 260 m 2 of oyster reef habitat in coastal Louisiana and followed the development and provision of these ecosystem services from 2009 through 2012. Oysters recruited to reefs immediately, with densities of oysters greater than 75 mm exceeding 80 ind m −2 after 3 years, and provision of filtration rates of 1002 ± 187 L h −1 m −2 ; shoreline stabilization effects of the created reefs were minimal over the three years of monitoring, with some evidence of positive shoreline stabilization during higher wind/energy events only; increased nekton abundance of resident, but not larger transient fish was immediately measurable at the reefs, however, this failed to increase through time. Our results provide critical insights into the development trajectories of ecosystem services provided by restored oyster reefs, as well as the mechanisms mediating these changes. This is critical both ecologically to understand how and where a reef thrives, and for policy and management to guide decision-making related to oyster reef restoration and the crediting and accounting of ecosystem services.

Louisiana↗
USGS2017

Groundwater response to the 2014 pulse flow in the Colorado River Delta

During the March-May 2014 Colorado River Delta pulse flow, approximately 102 × 10 6 m 3 (82,000 acre-feet) of water was released into the channel at Morelos Dam, with additional releases further downstream. The majority of pulse flow water infiltrated and recharged the regional aquifer. Using groundwater-level and microgravity data we mapped the spatial and temporal distribution of changes in aquifer storage associated with pulse flow. Surface-water losses to infiltration were greatest around the Southerly International Boundary, where a lowered groundwater level owing to nearby pumping created increased storage potential as compared to other areas with shallower groundwater. Groundwater levels were elevated for several months after the pulse flow but had largely returned to pre-pulse levels by fall 2014. Elevated groundwater levels in the limitrophe (border) reach extended about 2 km to the east around the midway point between the Northerly and Southerly International Boundaries, and about 4 km to the east at the southern end. In the southern part of the delta, although total streamflow in the channel was less due to upstream infiltration, augmented deliveries through irrigation canals and possible irrigation return flows created sustained increases in groundwater levels during summer 2014. Results show that elevated groundwater levels and increases in groundwater storage were relatively short lived (confined to calendar year 2014), and that depressed water levels associated with groundwater pumping around San Luis, Arizona and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora cause large, unavoidable infiltration losses of in-channel water to groundwater in the vicinity.

Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2017

Effectiveness of environmental flows for riparian restoration in arid regions: A tale of four rivers

Environmental flows have become important restoration tools on regulated rivers. However, environmental flows are often constrained by other demands within the river system and thus typically are comprised of smaller water volumes than the natural flows they are meant to replace, which can limit their functional efficacy. We review environmental flow programs aimed at restoring riparian vegetation on four arid zone rivers: the Tarim River in China; the Bill Williams River in Arizona, U.S.; the delta of the Colorado River in Mexico; and the Murrumbidgee River in southern Australia. Our goal is to determine what worked and what did not work to accomplish restoration goals. The lower Tarim River in China formerly formed a “green corridor” across the Taklamakan Desert. The riparian zone deteriorated due to diversion of surface and groundwater for irrigated agriculture. A massive restoration program began in 2000 with release of 1038 million cubic meters of water over the first three years. Groundwater levels rose but the ecological response was less than expected politically, socially and within the scientific community. However, releases continued and by 2015 portions of the original iconic Populus euphratica (Euphrates poplar) forest were reestablished. The natural flow regime of the Bill Williams River was disrupted by construction of a dam in 1968, dramatically reducing peak flows along with associated fluvial processes. As a result, the channel narrowed and riparian vegetation expanded and was comprised largely of an introduced shrub species ( Tamarix spp.). Environmental flow releases including small, managed floods and sustained base flows have been implemented since the mid 1990’s to promote establishment and maintenance of native riparian trees (cottonwoods and willows) and have been successful, although in a “downsized” portion of the valley bottom. Experience from the Bill Williams was used to help design the Minute 319 environmental flow in the delta of the Colorado River in 2014. Water was released as a short, one-time pulse during spring with the intent of starting new cohorts of cottonwood and willow. However, fluvial disturbance was limited by the relatively small magnitude pulse, low flows did not continue throughout the growing season in some reaches, native tree recruitment was low, and most of the new plants recruited were Tamarix . The inundated portion of the floodplain did respond with a temporary increase in greenness as measured by satellite vegetation indices, however. The Murrumbidgee River in Australia is a tributary in the Murray-Darling River Basin, which supports iconic red gum ( Eucalyptus camaldulensis ) forests that depend on near-yearly floods for maintenance. During the recent Millennial Drought (2000–2010) environmental flows were provided on an experimental basis to small portions of the Yanga National Forest to see how much water was needed. As with the Colorado River delta, gains in vegetation vigor as measured by satellite vegetation indices following the flows were temporary. Environmental flows in the Bill Williams were able to restore enough overbank flooding and fluvial disturbance to promote some establishment of new cohorts of trees, but on the Colorado and Murrumbidgee Rivers larger volumes of total flows released over longer periods and targeted restoration will be needed to restore the ecosystems. A measure of success in restoring the Euphrates poplar forest on the Tarim and germinating new chorts of willows on the Bill Williams has been achieved after 15–20 years of environmental flows, but the Colorado River delta and Murrumbidgee Rivers have only received one or two flows. Success in enhancing native trees in the Colorado delta has been achieved in restoration plots, but the Murrumbidgee will require large overbank flows on a continuing schedule to rejuvenate the red gum forest.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2011

Estimating aboveground forest biomass carbon and fire consumption in the U.S. Utah High Plateaus using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program, Landsat, and LANDFIRE

The concentrations of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and greatly affecting global climate and socio-economic systems. Actively growing forests are generally considered to be a major carbon sink, but forest wildfires lead to large releases of biomass carbon into the atmosphere. Aboveground forest biomass carbon (AFBC), an important ecological indicator, and fire-induced carbon emissions at regional scales are highly relevant to forest sustainable management and climate change. It is challenging to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of AFBC across large areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of forest cover types and canopy structure. In this study, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, Landsat, and Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (LANDFIRE) data were integrated in a regression tree model for estimating AFBC at a 30-m resolution in the Utah High Plateaus. AFBC were calculated from 225 FIA field plots and used as the dependent variable in the model. Of these plots, 10% were held out for model evaluation with stratified random sampling, and the other 90% were used as training data to develop the regression tree model. Independent variable layers included Landsat imagery and the derived spectral indicators, digital elevation model (DEM) data and derivatives, biophysical gradient data, existing vegetation cover type and vegetation structure. The cross-validation correlation coefficient ( r value) was 0.81 for the training model. Independent validation using withheld plot data was similar with r value of 0.82. This validated regression tree model was applied to map AFBC in the Utah High Plateaus and then combined with burn severity information to estimate loss of AFBC in the Longston fire of Zion National Park in 2001. The final dataset represented 24 forest cover types for a 4 million ha forested area. We estimated a total of 353 Tg AFBC with an average of 87 MgC/ha in the Utah High Plateaus. We also estimated that 8054 Mg AFBC were released from 2.24 km 2 burned forest area in the Longston fire. These results demonstrate that an AFBC spatial map and estimated biomass carbon consumption can readily be generated using existing database. The methodology provides a consistent, practical, and inexpensive way for estimating AFBC at 30-m resolution over large areas throughout the United States.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2019

Guidance for assessing interregional ecoystem service flows

Ecosystem services (ES) assessments commonly focus on a specific biophysical region or nation and take its geographic borders as the system boundary. Most geographical regions are, however, not closed systems but are open and telecoupled with other regions through ES imports and exports, which are mediated by fluxes of matter, energy and information. Interregional ES flows are often linked to national economies and may affect issues of national security and global equity. To date, however, methodologies for interregional ES flow assessments have been published in dispersed literature. This paper provides a three-step guidance for the assessment of four different types of interregional ES flows (traded goods, passive biophysical flows, species migration and dispersal and information flows), in order to complement national ecosystem assessments. The three steps are to (i) define the goal and scope of interregional ES flow assessments, (ii) quantify the interregional ES flows using a tiered approach and (iii) interpret results in terms of uncertainties, consequences and governance options. We compile different indicators for assessing interregional ES flows and evaluate their suitability for national ES assessments. Finally, in order to value the various outcomes of telecouplings, including their implications for human well-being, we relate the interregional ES flow indicators to the Sustainable Development Goals. We discuss how regional studies can assess a country‘s dependence and impact on "overseas" ES. This guidance towards systematic assessment of interregional ES flows provides a first step to measure and quantify externalised environmental costs and can contribute to the development of indicators to address interregional imbalances in trade, foreign policy and beyond.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2019

Statistical power of dynamic occupancy models to identify temporal change: Informing the North American Bat Monitoring Program

Dynamic occupancy models provide a flexible framework for estimating and mapping species occupancy patterns over space and time for large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative). Challenges for designing surveys using the dynamic occupancy modeling framework include defining appropriate derived trend parameters, and providing usable tools for researchers to conduct project-specific sample size investigations. We present a simulation-based power analysis framework for dynamic occupancy models that allows for the incorporation of the underlying environmental space (i.e., as covariates) within a specific study region to inform sample size estimation. We investigate two definitions of temporal trend: (1) a gradual, sustained (linear or nonlinear) change over a period of many years, and (2) an abrupt increase or decrease between two time periods. We draw upon pilot data collected following NABat protocols to inform assumed data generating values in a demonstration of our approach. Due to the complicated parameter structure of dynamic occupancy models, we emphasize the importance of visualizing simulated changes over time based on different parameter settings prior to conducting a power analysis. Our simulations revealed that the linearity of short-term trends (five years in our investigation) conferred higher power with lower sample size than longer trends where occupancy probabilities approached zero (ten years in our investigation). We provide an example of how to use our tools to conduct customized investigations using questions posed by NABat, and in doing so, we shed light on general guidelines that can be applied to programs monitoring species occupancy for other taxa. Importantly, we created an R package to execute our approach for informing program-, species-, and study-specific investigations aimed at identifying changes in species occupancy.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2022

Multi-species amphibian monitoring across a protected landscape: Critical reflections on 15 years of wetland monitoring in Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks

Widespread amphibian declines were well documented at the end of the 20th century, raising concerns about the need to identify individual and interactive contributors to this global trend. At the same time, there was growing interest in the use of amphibians as ecological indicators. In the United States, wetland and amphibian monitoring programs were launched in some national parks as a necessary first step to evaluating the status and trends of amphibian populations within some of North America’s most protected areas. In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, a multi-species amphibian monitoring program was launched by many of the authors in 2006 and continues to this day. This Viewpoint Article serves as a self-evaluation of our journey from conception through implementation of an ongoing, long-term monitoring program. This self-evaluation should provide a framework and guidance for other monitoring programs. We address whether we are fulfilling the program’s main objective of describing status and trends of the four amphibian species, discuss how a one-size-fits-all monitoring approach does not serve all species equally, and describe opportunities to bolster our core work using emerging statistical approaches and thoughtful integration of remote sensing and molecular tools. We also describe how the data generated over the program’s first 15 years have been useful beyond our initial goal of characterizing status and trend. Notably, our integration of climate datasets has allowed us to describe wetland and species-specific amphibian responses to variations in climate drivers. Documenting climate links to amphibian occurrence and their primary habitats has allowed us to identify which species, habitat types, and subregions within this large, protected landscape are most vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Recognizing that tools and threats change over time, it will be important to adapt our original monitoring design to maximize opportunities and use of resulting information. Maintaining engagement by multiple stakeholders and expanding our funding portfolio will also be necessary to sustain our program into the future. Finally, collaboration has become standard for long-term, cross-jurisdictional, landscape-scale monitoring. We argue that collaborative monitoring facilitates resource sharing, leveraging of limited funds, completion of work, and mutual learning. Such collaboration also increases the efficacy of conservation.

Wyoming↗
USGS2022

A biological condition gradient for Caribbean coral reefs: Part II. Numeric rules using sessile benthic organisms

The Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is a conceptual model used to describe incremental changes in biological condition along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. As coral reefs collapse globally, scientists and managers are focused on how to sustain the crucial structure and functions, and the benefits that healthy coral reef ecosystems provide for many economies and societies. We developed a numeric (quantitative) BGC model for the coral reefs of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to transparently facilitate ecologically meaningful management decisions regarding these fragile resources. Here, reef conditions range from natural, undisturbed conditions to severely altered or degraded conditions. Numeric decision rules were developed by an expert panel for scleractinian corals and other benthic assemblages using multiple attributes to apply in shallow-water tropical fore reefs with depths <30 m. The numeric model employed decision rules based on metrics (e.g., % live coral cover, coral species richness, pollution-sensitive coral species, unproductive and sediment substrates, % cover by Orbicella spp.) used to assess coral reef condition. Model confirmation showed the numeric BCG model predicted the panel’s median site ratings for 84% of the sites used to calibrate the model and 89% of independent validation sites. The numeric BCG model is suitable for adaptive management applications and supports bioassessment and criteria development. It is a robust assessment tool that could be used to establish ecosystem condition that would aid resource managers in evaluating and communicating current or changing conditions, protect water and habitat quality in areas of high biological integrity, or develop restoration goals with stakeholders and other public beneficiaries.

Ecological Indicators↗