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At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Shallow stratigraphy and sedimentation history during high-frequency sea-level changes on the central California shelf

Analyses of high-resolution seismic-reflection data and sediment cores indicate that an extensive sediment deposit on the central California continental shelf is comprised of several late-Pleistocene to Holocene age facies. Offshore of the littoral zone, in water depths of 30-90 m, a 3-6 m thick veneer of fine sediment referred to as the mid-shelf mudbelt has formed along 50-100 km of the coast. The mudbelt drapes a parasequence characterized by prograding clinoforms that in places overlies a 1-3 m thick basal transgressive lag deposit. These facies overlie a prominent erosional unconformity that extends from the shore to the outer shelf. Eighteen calibrated 14CAMS ages of marine molluscs and terrestrial wood detritus sampled in cores range 15,800 yr BP to modern indicating a postglacial age for these sediments (one >55,000 yr BP represents relict sand). We model accumulation of these facies using (1) the topography of the underlying erosional unconformity interpreted from seismic reflection profiles, (2) observed sediment facies (grain size) distribution across the shelf (a proxy for wave/current sediment partitioning), and published estimates of (3) eustatic sea-level history, and (4) regional tectonics. Our model and data indicate that deposition of the transgressive lag began during early, slow postglacial sea-level rise and that a notable change in depositional environment occurred across an area of more than 200 km2 of the outer shelf likely in response to abrupt drowning during Meltwater Pulse 1B (11,500 yr BP). We propose that rapid progradation of clinoforms may have occurred during transgression because of the unique interaction of modest rates of sediment input and tectonic uplift, variable rates of eustatic sea-level rise and a complex stepped antecedent topography.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2006

Bottom instrumented tripods: History, applications, and impacts

Instrumented bottom tripods have provided important data on sediment transport processes on continental shelves and in estuaries for four decades. Since the initial deployment in a tidal channel in Puget Sound, WA, in 1965 numerous tripods have been constructed to investigate bottom boundary layer and sediment dynamics worldwide. Tripod data have led to new understanding of near-bottom wave and current flows in the coastal ocean, and have been crucial to the development of shelf circulation and sediment transport models. Calculations of bottom stress, bottom roughness, and sediment flux that resulted directly from tripod data have been compared to bottom boundary layer model results. Where these have differed, new or revised model components have been developed to improve the skill of the models. The many discoveries that have been made from tripod experiments include dense, near-bottom fluid mud layers that transport large quantities of suspended sediment offshore into deeper regions of the continental shelf. This process has been linked to the seaward progradation of subaqueous deltas and to the boundaries of mid-shelf mud deposits off rivers with high fine-sediment discharge.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2007

A deep reef in deep trouble

The well-documented degradation of shallower reefs which are often closer to land and more vulnerable to pollution, sewage and other human-related stressors has led to the suggestion that deeper, more remote offshore reefs could possibly serve as sources of coral and fish larvae to replenish the shallower reefs. Yet, the distribution, status, and ecological roles of deep (>30 m) Caribbean reefs are not well known. In this report, an observation of a deep reef which has undergone a recent extensive loss of coral cover is presented. In stark contrast to the typical pattern of coral loss in shallow reefs, the deeper corals were most affected. This report is the first description of such a pattern of coral loss on a deep reef.

Virgin Islands↗
USGS2007

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine in 1993 and 1994: A comparative modeling study

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense commonly occur in the western Gulf of Maine but the amount of toxin observed in coastal shellfish is highly variable. In this study, a coupled physical-biological model is used to investigate the dynamics underlying the observed A. fundyense abundance and shellfish toxicity in 1993 (a high toxicity year) and 1994 (low toxicity year). The physical model simulates the spring circulation, while the biological model estimates the germination and population dynamics of A. fundyense based on laboratory and field data. The model captures the large-scale aspects of the initiation and development of A. fundyense blooms during both years, but small-scale patchiness and the dynamics of bloom termination remain problematic. In both cases, the germination of resting cysts accounts for the magnitude of A. fundyense populations early in the spring. Simulations with low net A. fundyense growth rates capture the mean observed concentration during the bloom peak, which is of similar magnitude during both years. There is little evidence that large-scale changes in biological dynamics between 1993 and 1994 were a primary driver of the differences in shellfish toxicity. Results instead suggest that the persistent southwesterly flow of the western Maine Coastal Current led to A. fundyense populations of similar alongshore extent by late May of both years. This period coincides with peak cell abundance in the region. Variations in wind forcing (downwelling favorable in 1993, upwelling favorable in 1994) and subsequent cell transport (inshore in 1993, offshore in 1994) in early June then provides a plausible explanation for the dramatic mid-June differences in shellfish toxicity throughout the western Gulf of Maine. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2007

River plume patterns and dynamics within the Southern California Bight

Stormwater river plumes are important vectors of marine contaminants and pathogens in the Southern California Bight. Here we report the results of a multi-institution investigation of the river plumes across eight major river systems of southern California. We use in situ water samples from multi-day cruises in combination with MODIS satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns and dynamics of the freshwater plumes. River discharge was exceptionally episodic, and the majority of storm discharge occurred in a few hours. The combined plume observing techniques revealed that plumes commonly detach from the coast and turn to the left, which is the opposite direction of Coriolis influence. Although initial offshore velocity of the buoyant plumes was ∼50 cm/s and was influenced by river discharge inertia (i.e., the direct momentum of the river flux) and buoyancy, subsequent advection of the plumes was largely observed in an alongshore direction and dominated by local winds. Due to the multiple day upwelling wind conditions that commonly follow discharge events, plumes were observed to flow from their respective river mouths to down-coast waters at rates of 20–40 km/d. Lastly, we note that suspended-sediment concentration and beam-attenuation were poorly correlated with plume salinity across and within the sampled plumes (mean r 2 =0.12 and 0.25, respectively), while colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence was well correlated (mean r 2 =0.56), suggesting that CDOM may serve as a good tracer of the discharged freshwater in subsequent remote sensing and monitoring efforts of plumes.

California↗
USGS2010

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

California↗
USGS2011

A buoyant plume adjacent to a headland-Observations of the Elwha River plume

Small rivers commonly discharge into coastal settings with topographic complexities – such as headlands and islands – but these settings are underrepresented in river plume studies compared to more simplified, straight coasts. The Elwha River provides a unique opportunity to study the effects of coastal topography on a buoyant plume, because it discharges into the Strait of Juan de Fuca on the western side of its deltaic headland. Here we show that this headland induces flow separation and transient eddies in the tidally dominated currents (O(100 cm/s)), consistent with other headlands in oscillatory flow. These flow conditions are observed to strongly influence the buoyant river plume, as predicted by the “small-scale” or “narrow” dynamical classification using Garvine's (1995) system. Because of the transient eddies and the location of the river mouth on the headland, flow immediately offshore of the river mouth is directed eastward twice as frequently as it is westward. This results in a buoyant plume that is much more frequently “bent over” toward the east than the west. During bent over plume conditions, the plume was attached to the eastern shoreline while having a distinct, cuspate front along its westernmost boundary. The location of the front was found to be related to the magnitude and direction of local flow during the preceding O(1 h), and increases in alongshore flow resulted in deeper freshwater mixing, stronger baroclinic anomalies, and stronger hugging of the coast. During bent over plume conditions, we observed significant convergence of river plume water toward the frontal boundary within 1 km of the river mouth. These results show how coastal topography can strongly influence buoyant plume behavior, and they should assist with understanding of initial coastal sediment dispersal pathways from the Elwha River during a pending dam removal project.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Waves and tides responsible for the intermittent closure of the entrance of a small, sheltered tidal wetland at San Francisco, CA

Crissy Field Marsh (CFM; http://www.nps.gov/prsf/planyourvisit/crissy-field-marsh-and-beach.htm ) is a small, restored tidal wetland located in the entrance to San Francisco Bay just east of the Golden Gate. The marsh is small but otherwise fairly typical of many such restored wetlands worldwide. The marsh is hydraulically connected to the bay and the adjacent Pacific Ocean by a narrow sandy channel. The channel often migrates and sometimes closes completely, which effectively blocks the tidal connection to the ocean and disrupts the hydraulics and ecology of the marsh. Field measurements of waves and tides have been examined in order to evaluate the conditions responsible for the intermittent closure of the marsh entrance. The most important factor found to bring about the entrance channel closure is the occurrence of large ocean waves. However, there were also a few closure events during times with relatively small offshore waves. Examination of the deep-water directional wave spectra during these times indicates the presence of a small secondary peak corresponding to long period swell from the southern hemisphere, indicating that CFM and San Francisco Bay in general may be more susceptible to long period ocean swell emanating from the south or southwest than the more common ocean waves coming from the northwest. The tidal records during closure events show no strong relationship between closures and tides, other than that closures tend to occur during multi-day periods with successively increasing high tides. It can be inferred from these findings that the most important process to the intermittent closure of the entrance to CFM is littoral sediment transport driven by the influence of ocean swell waves breaking along the CFM shoreline at oblique angles. During periods of large, oblique waves the littoral transport of sand likely overwhelms the scour potential of the tidal flow in the entrance channel.

California↗
USGS2013

Characterizing wave- and current- induced bottom shear stress: U.S. middle Atlantic continental shelf

Waves and currents create bottom shear stress, a force at the seabed that influences sediment texture distribution, micro-topography, habitat, and anthropogenic use. This paper presents a methodology for assessing the magnitude, variability, and driving mechanisms of bottom stress and resultant sediment mobility on regional scales using numerical model output. The analysis was applied to the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), off the U.S. East Coast, and identified a tidally-dominated shallow region with relatively high stress southeast of Massachusetts over Nantucket Shoals, where sediment mobility thresholds are exceeded over 50% of the time; a coastal band extending offshore to about 30 m water depth dominated by waves, where mobility occurs more than 20% of the time; and a quiescent low stress region southeast of Long Island, approximately coincident with an area of fine-grained sediments called the “Mud Patch”. The regional high in stress and mobility over Nantucket Shoals supports the hypothesis that fine grain sediment winnowed away in this region maintains the Mud Patch to the southwest. The analysis identified waves as the driving mechanism for stress throughout most of the MAB, excluding Nantucket Shoals and sheltered coastal bays where tides dominate; however, the relative dominance of low-frequency events varied regionally, and increased southward toward Cape Hatteras. The correlation between wave stress and local wind stress was lowest in the central MAB, indicating a relatively high contribution of swell to bottom stress in this area, rather than locally generated waves. Accurate prediction of the wave energy spectrum was critical to produce good estimates of bottom shear stress, which was sensitive to energy in the long period waves.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2015

Strongly-sheared wind-forced currents in the nearshore regions of the central Southern California Bight

Contrary to many previous reports, winds do drive currents along the shelf in the central portion of the Southern California Bight (SCB). Winds off Huntington Beach CA are the dominant forcing for currents over the nearshore region of the shelf (water depths less than 20 m). Winds control about 50–70% of the energy in nearshore alongshelf surface currents. The wind-driven current amplitudes are also anomalously high. For a relatively weak 1 dyne/cm2 wind stress, the alongshelf surface current amplitudes in this region can reach 80 cm/s or more. Mid-depth current amplitudes for the same wind stress are around 30–40 cm/s. These wind-driven surface current amplitudes are much larger than previously measured over other nearshore shelf regions, perhaps because this program is one of the few that measured currents within a meter of the surface. The near-bed cross-shelf currents over the nearshore region of the Huntington Beach shelf have an Ekman response to winds in that they upwell (downwell) for down (up) coast winds. This response disappears further offshore. Hence, there is upwelling in the SCB, but it does not occur across the entire shelf. Subthermocline water in the nearshore region that may contain nutrients and plankton move onshore when winds are southeastward, but subthermocline water over the shelf break is not transported to the beach. The currents over the outer shelf are not predominately controlled by winds, consistent with previous reports. Instead, they are mainly driven by cross-shelf pressure gradients that are independent of local wind stress.

California↗
USGS2015

Characteristics of storms driving wave-induced seafloor mobility on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf

This study investigates the relationship between spatial and temporal patterns of wave-driven sediment mobility events on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf and the characteristics of the storms responsible for them. Mobility events, defined as seafloor wave stress exceedance of the critical stress of 0.35 mm diameter sand (0.2160 Pa) for 12 or more hours, were identified from surface wave observations at National Data Buoy Center buoys in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) over the period of 1997-2007. In water depths ranging from 36-48 m, there were 4-9 mobility events/year of 1-2 days duration. Integrated wave stress during events (IWAVES) was used as a combined metric of wave-driven mobility intensity and duration. In the MAB, over 67% of IWAVES was caused by extratropical storms, while in the SAB, greater than 66% of IWAVES was caused by tropical storms. On average, mobility events were caused by waves generated by storms located 800+ km away. Far-field hurricanes generated swell 2-4 days before the waves caused mobility on the shelf. Throughout most of the SAB, mobility events were driven by storms to the south, east, and west. In the MAB and near Cape Hatteras, winds from more northerly storms and low-pressure extratropical systems in the mid-western U.S. also drove mobility events. Waves generated by storms off the SAB generated mobility events along the entire U.S. East Coast shelf north to Cape Cod, while Cape Hatteras shielded the SAB area from swell originating to the north offshore of the MAB.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2019

Alongshore momentum balance over shoreface-connected ridges, Fire Island, NY

Hydrodynamic and hydrographic data collected on the inner shelf of Fire Island, NY, over a region of shoreface-connected ridges (SFCRs) are used to describe wind-driven circulation over uneven topographies along relatively straight coastlines. The data revealed a predominantly alongshore flow, under westward wind forcing, with localized offshore current veering over the SFCR crests associated with an onshore veering over the adjacent troughs. Momentum balance analysis of the observations revealed that local acceleration, advective acceleration, and bottom stress are balanced by wind stress and regional (>100 km) pressure gradient force. Numerical model results based on simulations of an idealized SFCR bathymetry, as in Warner et al. (2014) but forced with the observed winds, are used to verify the experimentally derived results and constraint inaccuracies in the momentum balance term relationships revealed using the field data. As with previous SFCR studies, our experimental results indicate a current veering over ridge crests. Veering is driven primarily by two processes: cross-shore variation of alongshore advective acceleration which creates cross-shore pressure gradient and drives flow (described as a Bernoulli-like process), and, bottom frictional-torque. A synthesis of the numerical and experimental data revealed that the total pressure gradient force can be considered as the sum of a local and a regional pressure gradient force. The former is correlated with the alongshore advective acceleration that develops over the crest of the ridges resembling a Bernoulli-like pressure-flow relationship. The regional pressure gradient force is related to wind stress with which maintains a strong, negative relationship. The realistic driving force analysis revealed the different contributions of the local and regional scale pressure gradients. Under realistic and variable wind conditions the regional pressure gradients are more important and the influence of the local scale pressure gradient increases as the flow reaches quasi steady-state conditions. A time scale of 6 hours was defined as the temporal scale required for the local pressure gradients to have an effect

New York↗
USGS2009

Bioenergetic model estimates of interannual and spatial patterns in consumption demand and growth potential of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the Gulf of Alaska

A bioenergetic model of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) was used to estimate daily prey consumption and growth potential of four ocean habitats in the Gulf of Alaska during 2001 and 2002. Growth potential was not significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 at an alpha level of 0.05 (P=0.073). Average differences in growth potential across habitats were minimal (slope habitat=0.844 g d -1 , shelf habitat=0.806 g d -1 , offshore habitat=0.820 g d -1 , and nearshore habitat=0.703 g d -1 ) and not significantly different (P=0.630). Consumption demand differed significantly between hatchery and wild stocks (P=0.035) when examined within year due to the interaction between hatchery verses wild origin and year. However, the overall effect of origin across years was not significant (P=0.705) due to similar total amounts of prey consumed by all juvenile pink salmon in both study years. We anticipated that years in which ocean survival was high would have had high growth potential, but this relationship did not prove to be true. Therefore, modeled growth potential may not be useful as a tool for forecasting survival of Prince William Sound hatchery pink salmon stocks. Significant differences in consumption demand and a two-fold difference in nearshore abundance during 2001 of hatchery and wild pink salmon confirmed the existence of strong and variable interannual competition and the importance of the nearshore region as being a potential competitive bottleneck.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗
USGS2014

Investigating the importance of sediment resuspension in Alexandrium fundyense cyst population dynamics in the Gulf of Maine

Cysts of Alexandrium fundyense , a dinoflagellate that causes toxic algal blooms in the Gulf of Maine, spend the winter as dormant cells in the upper layer of bottom sediment or the bottom nepheloid layer and germinate in spring to initiate new blooms. Erosion measurements were made on sediment cores collected at seven stations in the Gulf of Maine in the autumn of 2011 to explore if resuspension (by waves and currents) could change the distribution of over-wintering cysts from patterns observed in the previous autumn; or if resuspension could contribute cysts to the water column during spring when cysts are viable. The mass of sediment eroded from the core surface at 0.4 Pa ranged from 0.05 kg m −2 near Grand Manan Island, to 0.35 kg m −2 in northern Wilkinson Basin. The depth of sediment eroded ranged from about 0.05 mm at a station with sandy sediment at 70 m water depth on the western Maine shelf, to about 1.2 mm in clayey–silt sediment at 250 m water depth in northern Wilkinson Basin. The sediment erodibility measurements were used in a sediment-transport model forced with modeled waves and currents for the period October 1, 2010 to May 31, 2011 to predict resuspension and bed erosion. The simulated spatial distribution and variation of bottom shear stress was controlled by the strength of the semi-diurnal tidal currents, which decrease from east to west along the Maine coast, and oscillatory wave-induced currents, which are strongest in shallow water. Simulations showed occasional sediment resuspension along the central and western Maine coast associated with storms, steady resuspension on the eastern Maine shelf and in the Bay of Fundy associated with tidal currents, no resuspension in northern Wilkinson Basin, and very small resuspension in western Jordan Basin. The sediment response in the model depended primarily on the profile of sediment erodibility, strength and time history of bottom stress, consolidation time scale, and the current in the water column. Based on analysis of wave data from offshore buoys from 1996 to 2012, the number of wave events inducing a bottom shear stress large enough to resuspend sediment at 80 m ranged from 0 to 2 in spring (April and May) and 0 to 10 in winter (October through March). Wave-induced resuspension is unlikely in water greater than about 100 m deep. The observations and model results suggest that a millimeter or so of sediment and associated cysts may be mobilized in both winter and spring, and that the frequency of resuspension will vary interannually. Depending on cyst concentration in the sediment and the vertical distribution in the water column, these events could result in a concentration in the water column of at least 10 4 cysts m −3 . In some years, resuspension events could episodically introduce cysts into the water column in spring, where germination is likely to be facilitated at the time of bloom formation. An assessment of the quantitative effects of cyst resuspension on bloom dynamics in any particular year requires more detailed investigation.

Bay Of Fundy;Grand Manan Island;Gulf Of Maine;Jord↗
USGS2017

Patterns of distribution, abundance, and change over time in a subarctic marine bird community

Over recent decades, marine ecosystems of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, have experienced concurrent effects of natural and anthropogenic perturbations, including variability in the climate system of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We documented spatial and temporal patterns of variability in the summer marine bird community in relation to habitat and climate variability using boat-based surveys of marine birds conducted during the period 1989–2012. We hypothesized that a major factor structuring marine bird communities in PWS would be proximity to the shoreline, which is theorized to relate to aspects of food web structure. We also hypothesized that shifts in physical ecosystem drivers differentially affected nearshore-benthic and pelagic components of PWS food webs. We evaluated support for our hypotheses using an approach centered on community-level patterns of spatial and temporal variability. We found that an environmental gradient related to water depth and distance from shore was the dominant factor spatially structuring the marine bird community. Responses of marine birds to this onshore-offshore environmental gradient were related to dietary specialization, and separated marine bird taxa by prey type. The primary form of temporal variability over the study period was monotonic increases or decreases in abundance for 11 of 18 evaluated genera of marine birds; 8 genera had declined, whereas 3 had increased. The greatest declines occurred in genera associated with habitats that were deeper and farther from shore. Furthermore, most of the genera that declined primarily fed on pelagic prey resources, such as forage fish and mesozooplankton, and few were directly affected by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our observations of synchronous declines are indicative of a shift in pelagic components of PWS food webs. This pattern was correlated with climate variability at time-scales of several years to a decade.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Trends in vegetation and height of the topographic surface in a tidal freshwater swamp experiencing rooting zone saltwater intrusion

A decrease in the ground surface height of coastal wetlands is of worldwide concern because of its relationship to peat loss, coastal carbon, and biodiversity in freshwater wetlands. We asked if it is possible to determine indicators of impending transitions of freshwater swamps to other coastal types by examining long-term changes in the environment and vegetation. In a tidal Taxodium distichum swamp in Hickory Point State Forest, Maryland, the topographic surface height (ground surface height) decreased by as much as 25.6 ± 2.2 to 50.8 ± 3.8 cm at two Surface Elevation Tables from 2015 to 2021 following salinity intrusion events related to hurricanes and offshore storms (e.g., Hurricane Melissa). In 2019, rooting zone salinity exceeded 5 ppt for >24.9 % of the time, with a maximum salinity level of 12.5 ppt. Tree growth of T. distichum trees declined and 60 % of these trees died along a 4 m wide × 125 m transect in 2014–2016. Root biomass and ground surface height decreased roughly in conjunction with a salinity pulse in the rooting zone during Hurricane Melissa in 2019. Saplings survived but T. distichum seedlings were uncommon and did not survive in the study area. Typha × glauca increased in cover (0.2 to 5.6 % cover plot −1 ) from 2014 to 2016 so a vegetation shift toward T. × glauca was apparent by 2021. This work captures a multi-year trend of decreasing ground surface height, tree growth and health, and freshwater status in the rooting zone that may be an indicator of impending vegetation transition.

Maryland↗
USGS2014

The effect of adjusting model inputs to achieve mass balance on time-dynamic simulations in a food-web model of Lake Huron

Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a widely used modeling tool in fishery research and management. Ecopath requires a mass-balanced snapshot of a food web at a particular point in time, which Ecosim then uses to simulate changes in biomass over time. Initial inputs to Ecopath, including estimates for biomasses, production to biomass ratios, consumption to biomass ratios, and diets, rarely produce mass balance, and thus ad hoc changes to inputs are required to balance the model. There has been little previous research of whether ad hoc changes to achieve mass balance affect Ecosim simulations. We constructed an EwE model for the offshore community of Lake Huron, and balanced the model using four contrasting but realistic methods. The four balancing methods were based on two contrasting approaches; in the first approach, production of unbalanced groups was increased by increasing either biomass or the production to biomass ratio, while in the second approach, consumption of predators on unbalanced groups was decreased by decreasing either biomass or the consumption to biomass ratio. We compared six simulation scenarios based on three alternative assumptions about the extent to which mortality rates of prey can change in response to changes in predator biomass (i.e., vulnerabilities) under perturbations to either fishing mortality or environmental production. Changes in simulated biomass values over time were used in a principal components analysis to assess the comparative effect of balancing method, vulnerabilities, and perturbation types. Vulnerabilities explained the most variation in biomass, followed by the type of perturbation. Choice of balancing method explained little of the overall variation in biomass. Under scenarios where changes in predator biomass caused large changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., high vulnerabilities), variation in biomass was greater than when changes in predator biomass caused only small changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., low vulnerabilities), and was amplified when environmental production was increased. When standardized to mean changes in biomass within each scenario, scenarios when vulnerabilities were low and when fishing mortality was increased explained the most variation in biomass. Our findings suggested that approaches to balancing Ecopath models have relatively little effect on changes in biomass over time, especially when compared to assumptions about how mortality rates of prey change in response to changes in predator biomass. We concluded that when constructing food-web models using EwE, determining the effect of changes in predator biomass on mortality rates of prey should be prioritized over determining the best way to balance the model.

Lake Huron↗
USGS2024

Modeling nearshore total phosphorus in Lake Michigan using linked hydrodynamic and water quality models

Although the offshore water of Lake Michigan has been below the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) total phosphorus (TP) spring target concentration of 7 µg L −1 for several decades, higher TP concentrations occur in the nearshore, contributing to the resurgence of Cladophora and other nutrient related issues. The most recent update of the GLWQA specifically calls for the assessment of current nearshore conditions. Such assessment would require an intensive monitoring program supported by water quality models. Here we applied multiple versions of a phosphorus-based model linked to an unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model. We focus on the nearshore regions of Lake Michigan around the Grand and Muskegon rivers – a region with strong riverine TP influence and intensive monitoring. Results from a TP model were compared to observational data and to a previously published Phosphorus-based Nutrient–Phytoplankton–Zooplankton–Detrital–Mussel (NPZDM) model. Model results and observational data show that parts of the nearshore can be well above the target TP concentrations but, due to the dynamic nature of this region, the TP concentrations can change rapidly. The models’ skill statistics in predicting individual observations were variable, but it was able to simulate temporal and spatial trends and captured the distribution of observations in our study area. The similarity between the results of the TP and NPZDM models demonstrated the TP concentrations in this nearshore area are driven by hydrodynamics and river TP loads, which are likely the reasons for the higher observed TP concentrations. Simplicity, transparency, and ease of use of the TP model make it a useful tool for supporting nearshore assessments and estimating existing and future nearshore TP concentrations.

Michigan↗