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At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming

Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events are largely unknown, despite being strongly linked to coastal hazards across time scales relevant to coastal management. Here, we present global climate-modeling evidence, based on the most comprehensive multi-method, multi-model wave ensemble, of projected changes in a core set of extreme wave indices describing high-frequency, extra-tropical storm-driven waves. We find changes in high-frequency extreme wave events of up to ∼50%–100% under RCP8.5 high-emission scenario; which is nearly double the expected changes for RCP4.5 scenario, when globally integrated. The projected changes exhibit strong inter-hemispheric asymmetry, with strong increases in extreme wave activity across the tropics and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere region, and a widespread decrease across most of the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the patterns of projected increase across these extreme wave events over the Southern Hemisphere region resemble their historical response to the positive anomaly of the Southern Annular Mode. Our findings highlight that many countries with low-adaptive capacity are likely to face increasing exposure to much more frequent extreme wave events in the future.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2003

Geochemistry of the furnace magnetite bed, Franklin, New Jersey, and the relationship between stratiform iron oxide ores and stratiform zinc oxide-silicate ores in the New Jersey highlands

The New Jersey Highlands terrace, which is an exposure of the Middle Proterozoic Grenville orogenic belt located in northeastern United States, contains stratiform zinc oxide-silicate deposits at Franklin and Sterling Hill and numerous massive magnetite deposits. The origins of the zinc and magnetite deposits have rarely been considered together, but a genetic link is suggested by the occurrence of the Furnace magnetite bed and small magnetite lenses immediately beneath the Franklin zinc deposit. The Furnace bed was metamorphosed and deformed along with its enclosing rocks during the Grenvillian orogeny, obscuring the original mineralogy and obliterating the original rock fabrics. The present mineralogy is manganiferous magnetite plus calcite. Trace hydrous silicates, some coexisting with fluorite, have fluorine contents that are among the highest ever observed in natural assemblages. Furnace bed calcite has ??13C values of -5 ?? 1 per mil relative to Peedee belemnite (PDB) and ??18O values of 11 to 20 per mil relative to Vienna-standard mean ocean water (VSMOW). The isotopic compositions do not vary as expected for an original siderite layer that decarbonated during metamorphism, but they are consistent with nearly isochemical metamorphism of an iron oxide + calcite protolith that is chemically and minerlogically similar to iron-rich sediments found near the Red Sea brine pools and isotopically similar to Superior-type banded iron formations. Other magniferous magnite + calcite bodies occur at approximately the same stratigraphic position as far 50 km from the zinc deposits. A model is presented in which the iron and zinc deposits formed along the western edge of a Middle Proterozoic marine basin. Zinc was transported by sulfate-stable brines and was precipitated under sulfate-stable conditions as zincian carbonates and Fe-Mn-Zn oxides and silicates. Whether the zincian assemblages settled from the water column or formed by replacement reactions in shallowly buried sediments is uncertain. The iron deposits formed at interfaces between anoxic and oxygenated waters. The Furnace magnetite bed resulted from seawater oxidation of hydrothermally transported iron near a brine conduit. Iron deposits also formed regionally on the basin floor at the interface betveen anoxic deep waters and oxygenated shallower waters. These deposits include not only manganiferous magnetite + calcite bodies similar to the Furnace magnetite bed but also silicate-facies deposits that formed by iron oxide accumulation where detrital sediment was abundant. A basin margin model can be extended to Grenvillian stratiform deposits in the northwest Adirondacks of New York and the Mont Laurier basin of Quebec. In these areas iron deposits (pyrite or magnetite) are found basinward of marble-hosted sphalerite deposits, such as those in the Balmat-Edwards district. Whether the iron and zinc precipitated as sulfide assemblages or carbonate-oxide-silicate assemblages depended on whether sufficient organic matter or other reductants were available in local sediments or bottom waters to stabilize H2S.

New Jersey↗
USGS2017

Analysis of seafloor change around Dauphin Island, Alabama, 1987–2015

Dauphin Island is a 26-km-long barrier island located southwest of Mobile Bay, Alabama, in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The island contains sandy beaches, dunes, maritime forests, freshwater ponds and intertidal wetlands, providing habitat for many endangered and threatened species. Dauphin Island also provides protection for and maintains estuarine conditions within Mississippi Sound, supporting oyster habitat and seagrasses. Wetland marshes along the Alabama mainland are protected by the island from wave-induced erosion during storms approaching from the Gulf of Mexico. Over the years, the island has been eroded by storms, most recently by Hurricane Ivan (2004) and Hurricane Katrina (2005) (Ivan/Katrina), which breached the island along its narrowest extent and caused damage to infrastructure. Along with storms producing significant episodic change, long-term beach erosion has exposed numerous pine tree stumps in the shoreface. The stumps are remnants of past maritime forests and reflect the consistent landward retreat of the island. Island change has prompted the State of Alabama to evaluate restoration alternatives to increase island resilience and sustainability by protecting and preserving the natural habitat, and by understanding the processes that influence shoreline change. Under a grant from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, restoration alternatives are being developed that will allow the State to make decisions on engineering and ecological restoration designs based on scientific analysis of likely outcomes and tradeoffs between impacts to stakeholder interests. Science-based assessment of the coastal zone requires accurate and up-to-date baseline data to provide a valid image of present conditions and to support modeling of coastal processes. Bathymetric elevation measurements are essential to this requirement. In August 2015, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted single beam and multibeam bathymetric surveys around Dauphin Island using a variety of shallow draft vessels and equipment. More than 95 square kilometers of seafloor was imaged. The data were integrated into a seamless digital elevation model to provide a high-resolution bathymetric map of the seafloor extending 9.5 kilometers seaward from the island’s eastern end and approximately 2 km along the rest of the island on the gulf and sound sides. Water depths range from 0.3 to 15.0 meters (m), with depths greater than 10.0 m constrained to the Mobile ship channel on the extreme eastern flank of the coverage. To measure seafloor change, two periods of historic hydrographic survey data were acquired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information data archive. The two timeframes (1987–1988 and 2005–2007) were selected for their completeness of spatial coverage and because they encompass a period of significant storm impacts to the island. These timeframes were compared to each other and with the 2015 dataset to monitor elevation gain (sediment accretion) and elevation loss (sediment erosion) over time. Sediment dynamics is by far the most significant driver of nearshore elevation change in this area. The Mississippi-Alabama inner shelf is a passive margin, and other influences on elevation change (for example, tectonic adjustment, Holocene subsidence, and eustatic sea-level rise) are neither significant nor variable enough over this time period to have an imprint.

Alabama↗
USGS2001

Critical habitat for ovigerous Dungeness crabs

The Dungeness crab, Cancer magister , supports an important fishery in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, yet there is limited knowledge of ovigerous female brooding locations and brooding behavior. Our earlier research suggests that ovigerous crabs aggregate at the same brooding locations for many years. Within these locations, ovigerous females occur in high densities, with the majority of the aggregation buried within the sediment. These locations often have similar water depths and sediment types and appear to be critical for this life history stage. Our study was designed to examine the bathymetric distribution of Dungeness crabs in bays with and without sea otters at eight locations within the Glacier Bay area by conducting transects with a video-equipped manned submersible. Two of the bays investigated contained large aggregations of ovigerous females. At both sites the substrate was composed primarily of sand. However, only a small percentage of the 33 km of transects were classified as sand. These data suggest that sand substrate may be a limiting resource. Since crab brooding aggregations represent a large portion of the crab population within a small area, and because they are a critical component of Dungeness life history, areas with these characteristics need to be investigated, mapped, and protected from development or exploitation. The areas requiring protection from the impact of anthropogenic wastes, fishing, and logging activities could be quite small, thus limiting conflict with alternative users.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2009

Toward production from gas hydrates: Current status, assessment of resources, and simulation-based evaluation of technology and potential

Gas hydrates (GHs) are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural GH accumulations, the status of the primary international research and development (R&D) programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing the commercialization of production. After a brief examination of GH accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate-production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical-simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps either are not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of GH deposits and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates across long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets; (b) methods to maximize production; and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain GH deposits undesirable for production. Copyright ?? 2009 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1973

Dolomitization model for Upper Cambrian and Lower Ordovician carbonate rocks in the eastern United States

Existing models for dolomitization emphasize that penecontemporaneous dolomitization can occur in both subtidal and supratidal environments if the necessary chemical and physical factors favorable for the development of magnesium-rich hypersaline waters exist. Holocene shallow-water hypersaline environments that have the potential to produce dolomite without deposition of more soluble evaporite minerals are found in Shark Bay, Australia, and on the Great Bahama Bank. These hypersalinity systems are characterized by near-vertical isosalinity layers of increasing concentration landward from the open ocean and show little or no relationship to bottom topography. I suggest that a similar but larger scale epicontinentalsalinity system covering the Late Cambrian and Early Ordovician carbonate continental shelf produced a broad wedge of subtidally deposited dolomite in the eastern half of the United States from Mexico to Canada. The distribution of limestone and dolomite in this region is closely keyed to the salinity gradient and accounts for the natural progression from a normal marine limestone facies through a transition zone to a highly saline dolomite facies phase. Algal stromatolite mats and domes occupied low-energy niches in both the limestone and dolomite facies, whereas stratiform algal stromatolites were confined to the areas of moderate energy within the dolomite facies.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗
USGS2006

Seismic characteristics of central Brazil crust and upper mantle: A deep seismic refraction study

[1] A two‐dimensional model of the Brazilian central crust and upper mantle was obtained from the traveltime interpretation of deep seismic refraction data from the Porangatu and Cavalcante lines, each approximately 300 km long. When the lines were deployed, they overlapped by 50 km, forming an E‐W transect approximately 530 km long across the Tocantins Province and western São Francisco Craton. The Tocantins Province formed during the Neoproterozoic when the São Francisco, the Paranapanema, and the Amazon cratons collided, following the subduction of the former Goiás ocean basin. Average crustal V P and V P /V S ratios, Moho topography, and lateral discontinuities within crustal layers suggest that the crust beneath central Brazil can be associated with major geological domains recognized at the surface. The Moho is an irregular interface, between 36 and 44 km deep, that shows evidences of first‐order tectonic structures. The 8.05 and 8.23 km s −1 P wave velocities identify the upper mantle beneath the Porangatu and Cavalcante lines, respectively. The observed seismic features allow for the identification of (1) the crust has largely felsic composition in the studied region, (2) the absence of the mafic‐ultramafic root beneath the Goiás magmatic arc, and (3) block tectonics in the foreland fold‐and‐thrust belt of the northern Brasília Belt during the Neoproterozoic. Seismic data also suggested that the Bouguer gravimetric discontinuities are mainly compensated by differences in mass distribution within the lithospheric mantle. Finally, the Goiás‐Tocantins seismic belt can be interpreted as a natural seismic alignment related to the Neoproterozoic mantle domain.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2023

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Montana’s economy

Introduction Montana, America’s fourth largest State with an area of 147,040 square miles, is defined by its diverse terrain. The western two-fifths of the State falls within the Rocky Mountains and the eastern three-fifths is in the Great Plains. Because of its location along the Continental Divide, the rivers in Montana drain into either the Pacific Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. Montana is often called the Treasure State due to its mineral wealth, which includes oil, gas, and coal, but the State’s primary economic activity is agriculture. Other economic activities include natural resources conservation, water supply and quality, infrastructure and construction management, flood risk management, and geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Montana↗
USGS2023

Sediment deposition, erosion, and bathymetric change in San Francisco Bay, California, 1971–1990 and 1999–2020

Bathymetric change analyses document historical patterns of sediment deposition and erosion, providing valuable insight into the sediment dynamics of coastal systems, including pathways of sediment and sediment-bound contaminants. In 2014 and 2015, the Office for Coastal Management, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Coastal Management, provided funding for new bathymetric surveys of large portions of San Francisco Bay. A total of 93 bathymetric surveys were conducted during this 2-year period, using a combination of interferometric sidescan and multibeam sonar systems. These data, along with recent NOAA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and private contractor surveys collected from 1999 to 2020 (hereinafter referred to as 2010s), were used to create the most comprehensive bathymetric digital elevation models (DEMs) of San Francisco Bay since the 1980s. Comparing DEMs created from these 2010s surveys with USGS DEMs created from NOAA’s 1971–1990 (hereinafter referred to as 1980s) surveys provides information on the quantities and patterns of erosion and deposition in San Francisco Bay during the 9 to 47 years between surveys. This analysis reveals that in the areas surveyed in both the 1980s and 2010s, the bay floor lost about 34 million cubic meters of sediment since the 1980s. Results from this study can be used to assess how San Francisco Bay has responded to changes in the system, such as sea-level rise and variation in sediment supply from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and local tributaries, and supports the creation of a new, system-wide sediment budget. This report provides data on the quantities and patterns of sediment volume change in San Francisco Bay for ecosystem managers that are pertinent to various sediment-related issues, including restoration of tidal marshes, exposure of legacy contaminated sediment, and strategies for the beneficial use of dredged sediment.

California↗
USGS2010

Rheologic and structural controls on the deformation of Okmok volcano, Alaska: FEMs, InSAR, and ambient noise tomography

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data indicate that the caldera of Okmok volcano, Alaska, subsided more than a meter during its eruption in 1997. The large deformation suggests a relatively shallow magma reservoir beneath Okmok. Seismic tomography using ambient ocean noise reveals two low‐velocity zones (LVZs). The shallow LVZ corresponds to a region of weak, fluid‐saturated materials within the caldera and extends from the caldera surface to a depth of 2 km. The deep LVZ clearly indicates the presence of the magma reservoir beneath Okmok that is significantly deeper (>4 km depth) compared to previous geodetic‐based estimates (3 km depth). The deep LVZ associated with the magma reservoir suggests magma remains in a molten state between eruptions. We construct finite element models (FEMs) to simulate deformation caused by mass extraction from a magma reservoir that is surrounded by a viscoelastic rind of country rock embedded in an elastic domain that is partitioned to account for the weak caldera materials observed with tomography. This configuration allows us to reduce the estimated magma reservoir depressurization to within lithostatic constraints, while simultaneously maintaining the magnitude of deformation required to predict the InSAR data. More precisely, the InSAR data are best predicted by an FEM simulating a rind viscosity of 7.5 × 10 16 Pa s and a mass flux of −4.2 × 10 9 kg/d from the magma reservoir. The shallow weak layer within the caldera provides a coeruption stress regime and neutral buoyancy horizon that support lateral magma propagation from the central magma reservoir to extrusion near the rim of the caldera.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Across borders: External factors and prior behaviour influence North Pacific albatross associations with fishing vessels

Understanding encounters between marine predators and fisheries across national borders and outside national jurisdictions offers new perspectives on unwanted interactions to inform ocean management and predator conservation. Although seabird–fisheries overlap has been documented at many scales, remote identification of vessel encounters has lagged because vessel movement data often are lacking. Here, we reveal albatrosses–fisheries associations throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We identified commercial fishing operations using Global Fishing Watch data and algorithms to detect fishing vessels. We compiled GPS tracks of adult black-footed Phoebastria nigripes and Laysan Phoebastria immutabilis albatrosses, and juvenile short-tailed albatrosses Phoebastria albatrus . We quantified albatrosses-vessel encounters based on the assumed distance that birds perceive a vessel (≤30 km), and associations when birds approached vessels (≤3 km). For each event we quantified bird behaviour, environmental conditions and vessel characteristics and then applied Boosted Regression Tree models to identify drivers and the duration of these associations. In regions of greater fishing effort short-tailed and Laysan albatrosses associated with fishing vessels more frequently. However, fishing method (e.g. longline, trawl) and flag nation did not influence association prevalence nor the duration short-tailed albatrosses attended fishing vessels. Laysan albatrosses were more likely to approach longer vessels. Black-footed albatrosses were the most likely to approach vessels (61.9%), but limited vessel encounters ( n = 21) prevented evaluation of meaningful explanatory models for this species of high bycatch concern. Temporal variables (time of day and month) and bird behavioural state helped explain when short-tailed albatrosses were in close proximity to a vessel, but environmental conditions were more important for explaining interaction duration. Laysan albatrosses were more likely to associate with vessels while searching and during the last 60% (by time) of their trips. Our results provide specific species–fisheries insight regarding contributing factors of high-risk associations that could lead to bycatch of albatrosses within national waters and on the high seas. Policy implications . Given the availability of Global Fishing Watch data, our analysis can be applied to other marine predators—if tracking data are available—to identify spatio-temporal patterns, vessel specific attributes and predator behaviours associated with fishing vessel associations, thus enabling predictive modelling and targeted mitigation measures.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right ( Eubalaena glacialis ), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), and fin ( Balaenoptera physalus ) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2016

Seasonal electrical resistivity surveys of a coastal bluff, Barter Island, North Slope Alaska

Select coastal regions of the North Slope of Alaska are experiencing high erosion rates that can be attributed in part to recent warming trends and associated increased storm intensity and frequency. The upper sediment column of the coastal North Slope of Alaska can be described as continuous permafrost underlying a thin (typically less than 1–2 m) active layer that responds variably to seasonal thaw cycles. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of the active layer and underlying permafrost is essential to better constrain how heightened erosion may impact material fluxes to the atmosphere and the coastal ocean, and how enhanced thaw cycles may impact the stability of the coastal bluffs. In this study, multi-channel electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was used to image shallow subsurface features of a coastal bluff west of Kaktovik, on Barter Island, northeast Alaska. A comparison of a suite of paired resistivity surveys conducted in early and late summer 2014 provided detailed information on how the active layer and permafrost are impacted during the short Arctic summer. Such results are useful in the development of coastal resilience models that tie together fluvial, terrestrial, climatic, geologic, and oceanographic forcings on shoreline stability.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2012

Influence of welded boundaries in anelastic media on energy flow, and characteristics of P, S-I, and S-II waves: Observational evidence for inhomogeneous body waves in low-loss solids

A general computer code, developed to calculate anelastic reflection-refraction coefficients, energy flow, and the physical characteristics for general P , S -I, and S -II waves, quantitatively describes physical characteristics for wave fields in anelastic media that do not exist in elastic media. Consideration of wave fields incident on boundaries between anelastic media shows that scattered wave fields experience reductions in phase and energy speeds, increases in maximum attenuation and Q −1 , and directions of maximum energy flow distinct from phase propagation. Each of these changes in physical characteristics are shown to vary with angle of incidence. Finite relaxation times for anelastic media result in energy flow due to interaction of superimposed radiation fields and contribute to energy flow across anelastic boundaries for all angles of incidence. Agreement of theoretical and numerical results with laboratory measurements argues for the validity of the theoretical and numerical formulations incorporating inhomogeneous wave fields. The agreement attests to the applicability of the model and helps confirm the existence of inhomogeneous body waves and their associated set of distinct physical characteristics in the earth. The existence of such body waves in layered, low-loss anelastic solids implies the need to reformulate some seismological models of the earth. The exact anelastic formulation for a liquid-solid interface with no low-loss approximations predicts the existence of a range of angles of incidence or an anelastic Rayleigh window, through which significant amounts of energy are transmitted across the boundary. The window accounts for the discrepancy apparent between measured reflection data presented in early textbooks and predictions based on classical elasticity theory. Characteristics of the anelastic Rayleigh window are expected to be evident in certain sets of wide-angle, ocean-bottom reflection data and to be useful in estimating Q −1 for some ocean bottom reflectors.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO 2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2011

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.

California↗