Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Landscape Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources
USGS2009

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Defining conservation priorities for freshwater fishes according to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity

To date, the predominant use of systematic conservation planning has been to evaluate and conserve areas of high terrestrial biodiversity. Although studies in freshwater ecosystems have received recent attention, research has rarely considered the potential trade-offs between protecting different dimensions of biodiversity and the ecological processes that maintain diversity. We provide the first systematic prioritization for freshwaters (focusing on the highly threatened and globally distinct fish fauna of the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA) simultaneously considering scenarios of: taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity; contemporary threats to biodiversity (including interactions with nonnative species); and future climate change and human population growth. There was 75% congruence between areas of highest conservation priority for different aspects of biodiversity, suggesting that conservation efforts can concurrently achieve strong complementarity among all types of diversity. However, sizable fractions of the landscape were incongruent across conservation priorities for different diversity scenarios, underscoring the importance of considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity and highlighting catchments that contribute disproportionately to taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity in the region. Regions of projected human population growth were not concordant with conservation priorities; however, higher human population abundance will likely have indirect effects on native biodiversity by increasing demand for water. This will come in direct conflict with projected reductions in precipitation and warmer temperatures, which have substantial overlap with regions of high contemporary diversity. Native and endemic fishes in arid ecosystems are critically endangered by both current and future threats, but our results highlight the use of systematic conservation planning for the optimal allocation of limited resources that incorporates multiple and complementary conservation values describing taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

Per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters: A statewide assessment, associated sources, and land-use relations

The objectives of this study are to identify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Pennsylvania surface waters, corresponding associations with potential sources of PFAS contamination (PSOC) and other parameters, and compare raw surface water concentrations to human and ecological benchmarks. Surface water samples from 161 streams were collected in September 2019 and were analyzed for 33 target PFAS and water chemistry. Land use and physical attributes in upstream catchments and geospatial counts of PSOC in local catchments are summarized. The hydrologic yield of the sum of 33 PFAS (∑PFAS) for each stream was computed by normalizing each site's load by the drainage area of the upstream catchment. Utilizing conditional inference tree analysis, the percentage of development (>7.58 %) was identified as a primary driver of the ∑PFAS hydrologic yields. When percentage of development was removed from analysis, ∑PFAS yields were closely related to surface water chemistry associated with landscape alteration (e.g., development or agricultural cropland), such as concentrations of total nitrogen, chloride, and ammonia, but also to count of water pollution control facilities (agricultural, industrial, stormwater, and/or municipal waste pollution abatement facilities). In oil and gas development regions, ∑PFAS yields were associated with combined sewage outfalls. Sites surrounded by ≥2 electronic manufacturing facilities had elevated ∑PFAS yields (median = 241 ng/s/km 2 ). Study results are critical to guide future research, regulatory policy, best practices that will mitigate PFAS contamination, and the communication of human health and ecological risks associated with PFAS exposure from surface waters.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2016

Land cover changes associated with recent energy development in the Williston Basin; Northern Great Plains, USA

The Williston Basin in the Northern Great Plains has experienced rapid energy development since 2000. To evaluate the land cover changes resulting from recent (2000 – 2015) development, the area and previous land cover of all well pads (pads) constructed during this time was determined, the amount of disturbed and reclaimed land adjacent to pads was estimated, land cover changes were analyzed over time for three different well types, and the effects from future development were predicted. The previous land cover of the 12,990 ha converted to pads was predominately agricultural (49.5%) or prairie (47.4%) with lesser amounts of developed (2.3%), aquatic (0.5%), and forest (0.4%). Additionally, 12,121 ha have likely been disturbed and reclaimed. The area required per gas well remained constant through time while the land required per oil well increased initially and then decreased as development first shifted from conventional to unconventional drilling and then to multi-bore pads. For non-oil-and- gas wells (i.e. stratigraphic test wells, water wells, injection wells, etc.), the area per well increased through time likely due to increased produced water disposal requirements. Future land cover change is expected to be 2.7 times greater than recent development with much of the development occurring in five counties in the core Bakken development area. Direct land cover change and disturbance from recent and expected development are predicted to affect 0.4% of the landscape across the basin; however, in the core Bakken development area, 2.3% of the landscape will be affected including 2.1% of the remaining grassland. Although future development will result in significant land cover change, evolving industry practices and proactive siting decisions, such as development along energy corridors and placing pads in areas previously altered by human activity, have the potential to reduce the ecological effects of future energy development in the Williston Basin.

Williston Basin↗
USGS2016

Pelagic nekton abundance and distribution in the northern Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Knowledge of the habitats occupied by species is fundamental for the development of effective conservation and management actions. The collapse of pelagic fish species in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, has triggered a need to better understand factors that drive their distribution and abundance. A study was conducted in summer–fall 2014 in an attempt to identify physical and biological habitat conditions that drive the abundance and distribution of pelagic species in the northern region of the system. The study was conducted in the three largest channels in the northern Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta by dimension, volume, and flow capacity. The pelagic community was dominated by three nonnative species, Siberian prawn Exopalaemon modestus , which comprised 56% of the total number of organisms, and two fish species, Threadfin Shad Dorosoma petenense and Mississippi Silversides Menidia audens , which together comprised 43% of the total number of organisms. Total fish and total shrimp abundance were sensitive to the most extreme values of turbidity and temperature encountered and positively associated with total zooplankton biomass. The results suggested that habitat conditions in terminal channels, historically a common feature on the landscape, support higher abundances of pelagic species and zooplankton than open-ended channels. These results provide resource managers with useful information on the habitat associations of pelagic species and on how the future distribution and abundance of pelagic species will likely change in response to climate or other ecological factors.

California↗
USGS1996

Sampling design for assessing water quality of the Red River of the North basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1993-1995

This map report describes the sampling design for a comprehensive regional assessment of water quality in the Red River of the North Basin, a study unit under the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sampling design was developed to address questions about the presence, distribution, and loads of nutrients and pesticides associated with large agricultural regions in the basin and across the Nation. The design also begins to address major local and regional concerns about suspended sediment in surface water and naturally occurring salinity in ground water. Recognizing that the Red River of the North Basin study unit realistically could not be analyzed as a single homogeneous area, a hierarchical sampling stratification for assessing water quality was developed. Landscape features consisting of physiography, soils, land cover and land use, and cropping patterns provided the environmental framework for stratification of streams and surficial aquifers. The environmental framework characterizes the climate and hydrology and relates closely to an ecoregions framework. The environmental and ecoregions frameworks were considered in locating ecological sampling sites. For the subsurface framework, buried sand and gravel aquifers in study unit were subdivided into two general subregions of differing potential saline recharge from underlying bedrock aquifers. Actual sampling sites for streams, aquatic biology, and ground water were described within the proposed sampling stratification. Practical considerations of previously established sampling sites, background information from previous hydrologic investigations, and site suitability for sampling protocols also were considered for final site selection.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2022

The role of monitoring and research in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in framing our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians

Emerging infectious disease threatens amphibian biodiversity worldwide, including in landscapes that are protected from many anthropogenic stressors. We summarized data from studies in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), one of the largest and most complete temperate-zone ecosystems on Earth, to assess the current state of knowledge about ranaviruses and the novel amphibian chytrid fungus (Bd) in this landscape, and to provide insight into future threats and conservation strategies. Our comprehension of these amphibian diseases in the GYE is based on >20 years of monitoring, surveys, population studies, and opportunistic observations of mortality events. Research indicates that local species are affected differently, depending on temperature, community structure, and location in the GYE. Bd has not been linked to die-offs in the GYE but evidence for ongoing reductions in survival contributes to foundational data about the effects of this pathogen in North America. Localized mortality events attributed to, or consistent with, disease from ranaviruses, are widespread in the GYE, but there is less information on how ranaviruses affect amphibian vital rates. The significance of disease in the long-term persistence of amphibians in the GYE is linked to anticipated changes in climate, especially drought. Additionally, expected increases in visitor use, and its associated impacts, have the potential to exacerbate the effects of disease. Long-term information from this large, intact landscape helps to frame our understanding of the effects of disease on amphibians and provides data that can contribute to management decisions, mitigation strategies, and forecasting efforts.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Converting CRP grasslands to cropland, grazing land, or hayland: Effects on breeding bird abundances in the northern Great Plains of the United States

Recent declines of grassland bird populations in North America are linked to habitat loss and fragmentation associated with agricultural practices. One tool used to conserve soil, water and wildlife habitat on agricultural fields is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural conservation program in the United States. Managers and conservationists recognize CRP as an important component of conserving grassland birds in the central portion of the United States. However, recent widespread expiration of CRP contracts could negatively influence grassland bird populations. Few studies have evaluated how former CRP-enrolled fields may function as grassland bird habitat. In this paper, we analyzed data from a long-term (1990–2017) study aimed at comparing grassland bird abundance (24 species) between idled CRP grasslands and fields where the CRP contracts expired. Some of these fields where contracts expired were maintained as pasture or hayland, and others were converted back to cropland. Estimated abundances of most species were considerably higher in idled CRP than in fields with expired CRP contracts. Post-CRP land use also appeared to affect most bird abundances, with lower abundance in grazed grasslands and haylands relative to idled CRP, but higher abundance than cropland. The responses of obligate and facultative grassland specialists to post-CRP management varied among species, with some being negative and some being positive depending on post-CRP land use, which is unsurprising given the variable habitat requirements of grassland birds. Our results have implications for wildlife managers who must design conservation strategies around the land use decisions of private landowners. Our results support the idea of maintaining a mosaic of undisturbed CRP grasslands and post-CRP grasslands that are hayed or grazed, which should guarantee some undisturbed nesting cover in the landscape for some bird species and some disturbed grasslands that may have long-term benefits for other species.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2015

Bird species turnover is related to changing predation risk along a vegetation gradient

Turnover in animal species along vegetation gradients is often assumed to reflect adaptive habitat preferences that are narrower than the full gradient. Specifically, animals may decline in abundance where their reproductive success is low, and these poor-quality locations differ among species. Yet habitat use does not always appear adaptive. The crucial tests of how abundances and demographic costs of animals vary along experimentally manipulated vegetation gradients are lacking. We examined habitat use and nest predation rates for 16 bird species that exhibited turnover with shifts in deciduous and coniferous vegetation. For most bird species, decreasing abundance was associated with increasing predation rates along both natural and experimentally modified vegetation gradients. This landscape-scale approach strongly supports the idea that vegetation-mediated effects of predation are associated with animal distributions and species turnover.

Montana↗
USGS2024

Hunting mode and habitat selection mediate the success of human hunters

Background As a globally widespread apex predator, humans have unprecedented lethal and non-lethal effects on prey populations and ecosystems. Yet compared to non-human predators, little is known about the movement ecology of human hunters, including how hunting behavior interacts with the environment. Methods We characterized the hunting modes, habitat selection, and harvest success of 483 rifle hunters in California using high-resolution GPS data. We used Hidden Markov Models to characterize fine-scale movement behavior, and k-means clustering to group hunters by hunting mode, on the basis of their time spent in each behavioral state. Finally, we used Resource Selection Functions to quantify patterns of habitat selection for successful and unsuccessful hunters of each hunting mode. Results Hunters exhibited three distinct and successful hunting modes (“coursing”, “stalking”, and “sit-and-wait”), with coursings as the most successful strategy. Across hunting modes, there was variation in patterns of selection for roads, topography, and habitat cover, with differences in habitat use of successful and unsuccessful hunters across modes. Conclusions Our study indicates that hunters can successfully employ a diversity of harvest strategies, and that hunting success is mediated by the interacting effects of hunting mode and landscape features. Such results highlight the breadth of human hunting modes, even within a single hunting technique, and lend insight into the varied ways that humans exert predation pressure on wildlife.

California↗
USGS2014

Estimating habitat carrying capacity for migrating and wintering waterfowl: Considerations, pitfalls and improvements

Population-based habitat conservation planning for migrating and wintering waterfowl in North America is carried out by habitat Joint Venture (JV) initiatives and is based on the premise that food can limit demography (i.e. food limitation hypothesis). Consequently, planners use bioenergetic models to estimate food (energy) availability and population-level energy demands at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, and translate these values into regional habitat objectives. While simple in principle, there are both empirical and theoretical challenges associated with calculating energy supply and demand including: 1) estimating food availability, 2) estimating the energy content of specific foods, 3) extrapolating site-specific estimates of food availability to landscapes for focal species, 4) applicability of estimates from a single species to other species, 5) estimating resting metabolic rate, 6) estimating cost of daily behaviours, and 7) estimating costs of thermoregulation or tissue synthesis. Most models being used are daily ration models (DRMs) whose set of simplifying assumptions are well established and whose use is widely accepted and feasible given the empirical data available to populate such models. However, DRMs do not link habitat objectives to metrics of ultimate ecological importance such as individual body condition or survival, and largely only consider food-producing habitats. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide a possible alternative for creating more biologically realistic models under some conditions; however, ABMs require different types of empirical inputs, many of which have yet to be estimated for key North American waterfowl. Decisions about how JVs can best proceed with habitat conservation would benefit from the use of sensitivity analyses that could identify the empirical and theoretical uncertainties that have the greatest influence on efforts to estimate habitat carrying capacity. Development of ABMs at restricted, yet biologically relevant spatial scales, followed by comparisons of their outputs to those generated from more simplistic, deterministic models can provide a means of assessing degrees of dissimilarity in how alternative models describe desired landscape conditions for migrating and wintering waterfowl.

Wildfowl↗
USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost—A review

Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2018

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Landscape conservation design for enhancing the adaptive capacity of coastal wetlands in the face of sea-level rise and coastal development

Coastal wetlands provide many valuable benefits to people and wildlife, including critical habitat, improved water quality, reduced flooding impacts, and protected coastlines. However, in the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. The future of coastal wetlands is uncertain, challenging coastal environmental managers to develop conservation strategies that will increase the resilience of these valuable ecosystems to change and preserve the benefits they provide. One strategy for preparing for the effects of sea-level rise is to ensure that there is space available for coastal wetlands to migrate inland. In a recent study, we identified areas where coastal wetlands may move inland along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most wetland-rich and sea-level rise sensitive regions of the world. Building on these findings, this project produced customized landscape conservation-design products focused on identifying landward migration routes for coastal wetlands. The resulting products provide environmental managers with information to make decisions to enhance the capacity of coastal wetlands to adapt to sea-level rise and coastal development, protecting these ecosystems and the critical economic and ecological benefits that they provide.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2026

Seasonal migrations and other movements

In the past 25 years new information has been obtained on the migrations and movements of mountain sheep (bighorn [Ovis canadensis], thinhorn [Ovis dalli]). This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of mountain sheep migration and other movements across their broad distribution in western North America. Across the range of mountain sheep, migrations and other seasonal movements define a complex movement portfolio that relates to and supports all aspects of mountain sheep ecology. Bighorn and thinhorn species have examples of migratory behaviors that span the continuum between annual residents and long-distance migrants. Migratory behaviors can be characterized as low- or high-elevation residents; elevational migrations and other variants; and geographic migrants. Native populations that have been extant on the landscape without notable human intervention have greater migratory propensity and more diverse migratory portfolios due to the maintenance of migration through cultural learning and social transmission. Restored and augmented populations, where the population-level knowledge of migration has been lost or greatly reduced, are largely nonmigratory, although translocations show some ability to restore short-distance elevational migrations. Seasonal spring and fall migrations are less common in desert bighorn sheep (O. canadensis spp.) or bighorn sheep living in canyon or prairie breaks landscapes. Mineral lick visitation is important and common across the range of mountain sheep. Managing for migratory diversity can help to sustain migratory behavior in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures, which can limit landscape connectivity between seasonal ranges or alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional phenology with cascading effects to other biotic and abiotic interactions such as the need to balance forage and predation risk or the spatial refugia with increased temperatures.

Book chapter↗
USGS2021

Evaluating natural experiments in ecology: Using synthetic controls in assessments of remotely sensed land treatments

Many important ecological phenomena occur on large spatial scales and/or are unplanned and thus do not easily fit within analytical frameworks that rely on randomization, replication, and interspersed a priori controls for statistical comparison. Analyses of such large‐scale, natural experiments are common in the health and econometrics literature, where techniques have been developed to derive insight from large, noisy observational data sets. Here, we apply a technique from this literature, synthetic control, to assess landscape change with remote sensing data. The basic data requirements for synthetic control include (1) a discrete set of treated and untreated units, (2) a known date of treatment intervention, and (3) time series response data that include both pre‐ and post‐treatment outcomes for all units. Synthetic control generates a response metric for treated units relative to a no‐action alternative based on prior relationships between treated and unexposed groups. Using simulations and a case study involving a large‐scale brush‐clearing management event, we show how synthetic control can intuitively infer treatment effect sizes from satellite data, even in the presence of confounding noise from climate anomalies, long‐term vegetation dynamics, or sensor errors. We find that accuracy depends on the number and quality of potential control units, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate control populations. Although we consider the synthetic control approach in the context of natural experiments with remote sensing data, we expect the methodology to have wider utility in ecology, particularly for systems with large, complex, and poorly replicated experimental units.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

Long-term monitoring in transition: Resolving spatial mismatch and integrating multistate occupancy data

The success of long-term wildlife monitoring programs can be influenced by many factors and study designs often represent compromises between spatial scales and costs. Adaptive monitoring programs can iteratively manage this tension by adopting new cost-efficient technologies, which can provide projects the opportunity to reallocate costs to address new hypotheses, adapt to changing ecological conditions, or adjust sampling scale or resolution. If there is interest in longer time series of monitoring data, methodological transitions may necessitate integrated models to link newer data with historical data. However, data integration can be difficult if spatial or temporal scales are mismatched. Here, we develop an integrated multistate site-occupancy model and resolve sample unit spatial mismatch to link datasets from two northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitoring schemes that broadly overlapped during a methodological transition. The first dataset was obtained from a decades-long spotted owl monitoring program using call-playback and mark-resight surveys on historical territories of varying size and shape. This monitoring program has recently transitioned to passive acoustic monitoring of randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons over larger spatial extents. Both monitoring datasets overlapped with areas in which barred owl ( Strix varia ), an invasive competitor that has played an important role in northern spotted owl declines, were being removed experimentally. Reconciling spatial mismatch substantially increased the representation of the call-playback dataset and integrating the two datasets increased precision of spotted owl use and paired occupancy estimates relative to single dataset estimates. Estimates of spotted owl pair occupancy across the study area were lower than previous territory-based estimates based on call-playback surveys. Our integrated model further showed that a concurrent barred owl removal experiment increased landscape use and site occupancy by pairs of spotted owls. Our empirical application of an integrated modelling approach demonstrates a useful analytical framework for long-term monitoring efforts undergoing methodological transitions (e.g. mark-recapture to non-invasive population monitoring). This framework allows monitoring programs to maintain continuity of monitoring objectives across methodological transitions, rigorously incorporate previous findings, and adaptively respond to changing ecological conditions.

Oregon↗