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At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 1: The Southern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande Regions

Maize is the New World's preeminent grain crop and it provided the economic basis for human culture in many regions within the Americas. To flourish, maize needs water, sunlight (heat), and nutrients (e. g., nitrogen). In this paper, climate and soil chemistry data are used to evaluate the potential for dryland (rainon-field) agriculture in the semiarid southeastern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande regions. Processes that impact maize agriculture such as nitrogen mineralization, infiltration of precipitation, bare soil evaporation, and transpiration are discussed and evaluated. Most of the study area, excepting high-elevation regions, receives sufficient solar radiation to grow maize. The salinities of subsurface soils in the central San Juan Basin are very high and their nitrogen concentrations are very low. In addition, soils of the central San Juan Basin are characterized by pH values that exceed 8.0, which limit the availability of both nitrogen and phosphorous. In general, the San Juan Basin, including Chaco Canyon, is the least promising part of the study area in terms of dryland farming. Calculations of field life, using values of organic nitrogen for the upper 50 cm of soil in the study area, indicate that most of the study area could not support a 10-bushel/acre crop of maize. The concepts, methods, and calculations used to quantify maize productivity in this study are applicable to maize cultivation in other environmental settings across the Americas. ?? 2010 US Government.

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory↗

Influence of hydrologic modifications on Fraxinus pennsylvanica in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA

We used tree-ring analysis to examine radial growth response of a common, moderately flood-tolerant species (<i>Fraxinus pennsylvanica</i> Marshall) to hydrologic and climatic variability for > 40 years before and after hydrologic modifications affecting two forest stands in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (USA): a stand without levees below dams and a stand within a ring levee. At the stand without levees below dams, spring flood stages decreased and overall growth increased after dam construction, which we attribute to a reduction in flood stress. At the stand within a ring levee, growth responded to the elimination of overbank flooding by shifting from being positively correlated with river stage to not being correlated with river stage. In general, growth in swales was positively correlated with river stage and Palmer Drought Severity Index (an index of soil moisture) for longer periods than flats. Growth decreased after levee construction, but swales were less impacted than flats likely because of differences in elevation and soils provide higher soil moisture. Results of this study indicate that broad-scale hydrologic processes differ in their effects on the flood regime, and the effects on growth of moderately flood-tolerant species such as <i>F. pennsylvanica</i> can be mediated by local-scale factors such as topographic position, which affects soil moisture.

Bayou Cocodrie National Wildlife Refuge, White Riv↗

Establishing a baseline of estuarine submerged aquatic vegetation resources across salinity zones within coastal areas of the northern Gulf of Mexico

Coastal ecosystems are dynamic and productive areas that are vulnerable to effects of global climate change. Despite their potentially limited spatial extent, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) beds function in coastal ecosystems as foundation species, and perform important ecological services. However, limited understanding of the factors controlling SAV distribution and abundance across multiple salinity zones (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) in the northern Gulf of Mexico restricts the ability of models to accurately predict resource availability. We sampled 384 potential coastal SAV sites across the northern Gulf of Mexico in 2013 and 2014, and examined community and species-specific SAV distribution and biomass in relation to year, salinity, turbidity, and water depth. After two years of sampling, 14 species of SAV were documented, with three species (coontail [Ceratophyllum demersum], Eurasian watermilfoil [Myriophyllum spicatum], and widgeon grass [Ruppia maritima]) accounting for 54% of above-ground biomass collected. Salinity and water depth were dominant drivers of species assemblages but had little effect on SAV biomass. Predicted changes in salinity and water depths along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast will likely alter SAV production and species assemblages, shifting to more saline and depth-tolerant assemblages, which in turn may affect habitat and food resources for associated faunal species.

Gulf of Mexico↗

Migration water temperature and heat stress assessments in western Alaska Chinook salmon overlapping the 2019 heatwave

Chinook salmon population declines span their geographic range with climate hypothesized as a major driver. Concerns of warming freshwater temperatures in their northern range gained urgency during 2019 when a heatwave coincided with premature mortality. This study examined heat stress during the 2019 heatwave compared to subsequent years and described water temperatures in western Alaska to understand the degree to which freshwater temperatures may be a stressor. Heat stress was prevalent among Chinook salmon captured in the 2019 heatwave (Kuskokwim tributaries: 90% in Kwethluk and 63% Takotna river), and variable in subsequent years (∼8% to 60% across Kuskokwim tributaries and Norton Sound rivers). A review of water temperature data indicated that potentially stressful temperatures (≥18 °C) were most common and prolonged in the Yukon River, moderately common and prolonged in the Kuskokwim River, and relatively rare in the Norton Sound region. Water temperatures in 2019 broke several records for overall maximum and frequency of temperatures ≥ 18 °C. Migration water temperatures and heat stress in northern Pacific salmon habitats vary more widely than previously recognized (up to 25 °C).

Alaska↗

Using complementary biomarkers to unravel fish lifetime exposure to hypoxia and mercury

Aquatic ecosystems are losing oxygen due to climate change. This deoxygenation can favor microbial methylation of mercury (Hg). To understand the dynamics of Hg under increasing deoxygenation, we simultaneously quantified both Hg and hypoxia (< 2 mg O2/L) lifetime chronologies in fishes. We used a novel combination of chemical biomarkers in ear stones and eye lenses. We compared these markers in two species with different life histories, benthic Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and semi-demersal Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens), from two connected ecosystems with different levels of hypoxia: the Central Basin of Lake Erie and the less hypoxic but more polluted Western Basin. Overall, Central Basin Round Goby were exposed to hypoxia throughout their lifetime and exhibited significantly elevated eye lens Hg concentrations ([Hg]) compared to their Western Basin counterparts. In contrast, the Central Basin Yellow Perch were exposed to hypoxia only at their juvenile stage. Central Basin Yellow Perch exhibited significantly lower eye lens [Hg] compared to their Western Basin counterparts. Patterns revealed by eye lens [Hg] were not detectable in muscle tissue [Hg]. Findings show that exposure to hypoxia can alter fish lifetime Hg accumulation patterns, with species-specific outcomes.

central and western basins of Lake Erie↗

Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts to support FEWS NET’s food insecurity outlooks

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. This study describes development of a new global reference evapotranspiration (ETo) seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE’s formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP’s CFSv2 and NASA’s GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores, focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. Globally, the regions where forecasts are most skillful (correlation >0.35 at lead-2) include Western U.S., northern parts of South America, parts of Sahel region and Southern Africa. The FEWS NET regions where forecasts are most skillful (correlation >0.35 at lead-3) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that ETo forecasts in combination with the precipitation forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology↗

A serological survey of Francisella tularensis exposure in wildlife on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

Tularemia is an infectious zoonotic disease caused by one of several subspecies of Francisella tularensis bacteria. Infections by F. tularensis are common throughout the northern hemisphere and have been detected in more than 250 wildlife species. In Alaska, US, where the pathogen was first identified in 1938, studies have identified F. tularensis antibodies in a diverse suite of taxa, including insects, birds, and mammals. However, few such investigations have been conducted recently and knowledge about the current distribution and disease ecology of F. tularensis is limited, particularly in Arctic Alaska, an area undergoing rapid environmental changes from climate warming. To help address these information gaps and provide insights about patterns of exposure among wildlife, we assessed the seroprevalence of F. tularensis antibodies in mammals and tundra-nesting geese from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, 2014–17. With a commercially available slide agglutination test, we detected antibodies in 14.7% of all individuals sampled ( n =722), with titers ranging from 1:20 to 1:320. We detected significant differences in seroprevalence between family groups, with Canidae (foxes, Vulpes spp.) and Sciuridae (Arctic ground squirrel, Spermophilus parryii ) having the highest seroprevalence at 21.5% and 33.3%, respectively. Mean seroprevalence for Ursidae (polar bears, Ursus maritimus ) was 13.3%, whereas Cervidae (caribou, Rangifer tarandus ) had comparatively low seroprevalence at 6.5%. Antibodies were detected in all Anatidae species sampled, with Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) having the highest seroprevalence at 13.6%. The detection of F. tularensis antibodies across multiple taxa from the Arctic Coastal Plain and its nearshore marine region provides evidence of exposure to this pathogen throughout the region and highlights the need for renewed surveillance in Alaska.

Alaska↗

The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28&ndash;0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79&ndash;0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

Heard Island↗

Late-Holocene climate evolution at the WAIS Divide site, West Antarctica: Bubble number-density estimates

A surface cooling of ∼1.7°C occurred over the ∼two millennia prior to ∼1700 CE at the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) Divide site, based on trends in observed bubble number-density of samples from the WDC06A ice core, and on an independently constructed accumulation-rate history using annual-layer dating corrected for density variations and thinning from ice flow. Density increase and grain growth in polar firn are both controlled by temperature and accumulation rate, and the integrated effects are recorded in the number-density of bubbles as the firn changes to ice. Number-density is conserved in bubbly ice following pore close-off, allowing reconstruction of either paleotemperature or paleo-accumulation rate if the other is known. A quantitative late-Holocene paleoclimate reconstruction is presented for West Antarctica using data obtained from the WAIS Divide WDC06A ice core and a steady-state bubble number-density model. The resultant temperature history agrees closely with independent reconstructions based on stable-isotopic ratios of ice. The ∼1.7°C cooling trend observed is consistent with a decrease in Antarctic summer duration from changing orbital obliquity, although it remains possible that elevation change at the site contributed part of the signal. Accumulation rate and temperature dropped together, broadly consistent with control by saturation vapor pressure.

Journal of Glaciology↗

Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall—Southern Malawi case study

During 1990s, disaster risk reduction emerged as a novel, proactive approach to managing risks from natural hazards. The World Bank, USAID, and other international donor agencies began making efforts to mainstream disaster risk reduction in countries whose population and economies were heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This approach has more significance in light of the increasing climatic hazard patterns and the climate scenarios projected for different hazard prone countries in the world. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) has been monitoring the food security issues in the sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and in Haiti. FEWS NET monitors the rainfall and moisture availability conditions with the help of NOAA RFE2 data for deriving food security status in Africa. This paper highlights the efforts in using satellite estimated rainfall inputs to develop drought vulnerability models in the drought prone areas in Malawi. The satellite RFE2 based SPI corresponding to the critical tasseling and silking phases (in the months of January, February, and March) were statistically regressed with drought-induced yield losses at the district level. The analysis has shown that the drought conditions in February and early March lead to most damage to maize yields in this region. The district-wise vulnerabilities to drought were upscaled to obtain a regional maize vulnerability model for southern Malawi. The results would help in establishing an early monitoring mechanism for drought impact assessment, give the decision makers additional time to assess seasonal outcomes, and identify potential food-related hazards in Malawi.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Spatial sampling bias in the Neotoma paleoecological archives affects species paleo-distribution models

The ability to infer paleo-distributions with limited knowledge of absence makes species distribution modeling (SDM) a useful tool for exploring paleobiogeographic questions. Spatial sampling bias is a known issue when modeling extant species. Here we quantify the spatial sampling bias in a North American packrat midden archive and explore its impact on estimating paleo-distributions. We test whether (1) spatial sampling bias inherent in this macrofossil record can influence estimates of paleo-distributions, (2) this bias can alter the ability to measure shifts in distributions and climatic niche breadth from the Northgrippian subdivision of the Holocene (8.3 ka – 4.2 ka) to present day (1950–2000 yr), and (3) bias correction methods can improve estimates of paleo-distributions and analyses of range shifts and niche breadth. We estimate spatial sampling bias for the mid-Holocene period with a three-stage statistical model, each representing a hypothesized source of bias: fossil site availability, preservation and accessibility. This approach enables the use of SDM to evaluate three separate paleo-distributions calibrated on the packrat midden archive: those without bias correction (σ-naïve), those created with a standard method (σ-standard), and those created with a novel alternative (σ-modeled) incorporating the three-stage model of bias. We find that paleo-distributions modeled for the mid-Holocene without bias correction (σ-naïve) provided poor estimates of hindcast paleo-distributions, and that the σ-modeled correction method improved paleo-distributions for our six species with, on average, 50% higher overlap to hindcast distributions than σ-naïve paleo-distributions (σ-standard results fell between σ-naïve and σ-modeled).

Journal of Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Radial growth decline of white spruce (Picea glauca) during hot summers without drought: Preliminary results from a study site south of a boreal forest border

If the modern climate trend continues for an additional 20–40 years, forests along the southern border of Canadian taiga may shift into new ranges of annual temperature and precipitation that are similar to the modern climate of central New York State, United States. Here we investigate the possible future response of white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) to a warmer climate by studying trees planted 90 years ago near the southern limit of their climate tolerance in central New York, 300 km south of the boreal forest where this species is prevalent. We employed high-frequency recording dendrometers to determine radial growth phenology of six mature white spruce trees during 2013–2017. The results demonstrate significant reductions in the length of radial growth periods inversely proportional to the number of hot days with air temperature exceeding 30 °C. During years with very hot summers, the start of radial growth began about 3 days earlier than the 2013–2017 average. However, in those same years, the end of radial growth was also about 17 days earlier resulting in a shorter (70 days versus 100 days) radial growth season. Abundant (350–500 mm) summer precipitation, which resulted in soil moisture values of 20%–30%, allowed us to dismiss drought as a factor. Instead, a likely cause of reduced radial growth was mean temperature that exceeded optimal growth ranges, exacerbated by temperature extremes in ranges that lead to photoinhibition. The latter case was evident in the two warmest growing seasons (2013 and 2017), marked by extended periods of high daytime temperature (>30 °C) followed by early cessation of radial growth independent of seasonal precipitation.

New York↗

Assessment of Alaska rain-on-snow events using dynamical downscaling

The ice formed by cold-season rainfall or rain on snow (ROS) has striking impacts on the economy and ecology of Alaska. An understanding of the atmospheric drivers of ROS events is required to better predict them and plan for environmental change. The spatially/temporally sparse network of stations in Alaska makes studying such events challenging, and gridded reanalysis or remote sensing products are necessary to fill the gaps. Recently developed dynamically downscaled climate data provide a new suite of high-resolution variables for investigating historical and projected ROS events across all of Alaska from 1979 to 2100. The dynamically downscaled reanalysis data of ERA-Interim replicated the seasonal patterns of ROS events but tended to produce more rain events than in station observations. However, dynamical downscaling reduced the bias toward more rain events in the coarse reanalysis. ROS occurred most frequently over southwestern and southern coastal regions. Extreme events with the heaviest rainfall generally coincided with anomalous high pressure centered to the south/southeast of the locations receiving the event and warm-air advection from the resulting southwesterly wind flow. ROS events were projected to increase in frequency overall and for extremes across most of the region but were expected to decline over southwestern/southern Alaska. Increases in frequency were projected as a result of more frequent winter rainfall, but the number of ROS events may ultimately decline in some areas as a result of temperatures rising above the freezing threshold. These projected changes in ROS can significantly affect wildlife, vegetation, and human activities across the Alaska landscape.

Alaska↗

Monitoring the status of forests and rangelands in the Western United States using ecosystem performance anomalies

The effects of land management and disturbance on ecosystem performance (i.e. biomass production) are often confounded by those of weather and site potential. The current study overcomes this issue by calculating the difference between actual and expected ecosystem performance (EEP) to generate ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA). This study aims to delineate and quantify average EPA from 2000–2009 within the Greater Platte and Upper Colorado River Basins, USA. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images averaged over the growing season (GSN) served as a proxy of actual ecosystem performance. Yearly EEP was determined with rule-based piecewise regression tree models of abiotic data (climate, soils, elevation, etc.), independently created for each land cover. EPA were calculated as the residuals of the EEP to GSN relationship, and characterized as normal performing, underperforming, and overperforming at the 90% confidence level. Validation revealed that EPA values were related to biomass production (R 2 = 0.56, P = 0.02) and likely to the proportion of biomass removed by livestock in the Nebraska Sandhills. Overall, 60.6% of the study area was (normal) performing near its EEP, 3.0% was severely underperforming, 5.0% was highly overperforming, and the remainder was slightly underperforming or overperforming. Generally, disturbances such as fires, floods, and insect damage, in addition to high grazing intensity, result in a negative EPA. Conversely, mature stands and appropriate management often result in positive EPA values. This method provides information critical to land managers to evaluate the appropriateness of previous management practices and restoration efforts and quantify disturbance impacts. Results are at a scale sufficient for many of the large management units of the region and for locating areas needing further investigation. Applications of EPA data to monitoring invasive species, grazing impacts, and vulnerability to plant community shifts have been suggested by land management professionals.

Arizona;Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;South ↗

Behavioral responses of Pacific lamprey to alarm cues

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), an anadromous ectoparasite, faces several challenges during adult migration to spawning grounds. Developing methods to address these challenges is critical to the success of ongoing conservation efforts. The challenges are diverse, and include anthropogenic alterations to the ecosystem resulting in loss of habitat, impassable barriers such as dams, climate change impacts, and altered predator fields. We conducted a behavioral study to understand how adult migrating Pacific lamprey respond to potential alarm cues: White Sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ), human saliva, decayed Pacific lamprey, and river otter ( Lontra canadensis ). Research has shown that some species of lamprey can be guided to a location using odors and similar cues may be useful as a management tool for Pacific lamprey. Experiments were conducted over 2 nights and measured the number of entries (count) and duration of time spent (occupancy) by adult lamprey in each arm of a two-choice maze. During the first night, no odor was added to test for selection bias between arms. During the second night odor was added to one arm of the maze. Contrary to expectations, lamprey were significantly attracted to the river otter odor in both count and occupancy. No significant differences were found in the response of lamprey to the other three odors. Results from this study indicate that Pacific lamprey do respond to some odors; however, additional tests are necessary to better identify the types of odors and concentrations that elicit a repeatable response.

Oregon, Washington↗

Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes

Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.

Alaska↗

The LTAR Grazing Land Common Experiment at the Jornada Experimental Range: Old genetics, new precision technologies, and adaptive value chains

Rangelands and the supply chains connected to them are central to the agrifood systems of the Southwestern United States. Local ranchers are simultaneously arid lands managers, herd managers, and marketing managers. To stay in business, they must constantly adapt to unpredictable forage resources and markets while conserving soils and vegetation resources for the long term. As climate warming and drying exacerbate the complexity and difficulty of day-to-day production, producers and policy-makers are seeking alternatives to “business as usual”. To meet this need, the LTAR-Jornada team has developed a package of strategies to help producers adapt to the local and inter-regional challenges. The package includes heritage cattle, precision ranching systems, and adaptive value chains. Five ranches across the Southwest have adopted different combinations of the strategies and are partnering to measure their benefits and drawbacks in real-world conditions. Opportunities for controlled experimentation differ among the ranches, so we use LTAR’s indicator system to assess and compare results. Even as we invest in co-producing knowledge about these three strategies, we recognize that progressive aridification and urbanization of Southwestern rangelands create challenges for which a single “silver bullet” agricultural innovation is unlikely to provide durable solutions. We are learning from our customers and stakeholders about ways to adjust the development of new options.

New Mexico↗

Drawdown, habitat, and kokanee populations in a western U.S. reservoir

Greater drought frequency and severity due to climate change will result in greater drawdown of water storage reservoirs. However, changes to oxythermal regimes due to drawdown are reservoir specific and interface with fish species-specific habitat requirements, producing varying effects on coldwater fish populations. We examined the effect of drawdown on the oxythermal habitat and relative abundance of kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka , a coldwater salmonid, in Island Park Reservoir on the Henrys Fork of the Snake River, Idaho. A measure of relative kokanee abundance was negatively, exponentially related to drawdown. Oxythermal patterns measured in the reservoir during 2021, a severe drought year, revealed that drawdown reduced kokanee habitat by increasing water temperatures and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations. Oxythermal refugia for kokanee appeared to relate to inflow from the spring-fed Henrys Fork and other groundwater inflows. However, we did not quantify groundwater flow or connections, and we did not study kokanee population demographics or mortality. Reducing these sources of uncertainty is a priority for future study. Still, our study highlights a potential mechanism connecting reservoir drawdown to fish populations and the unique yet predictable mechanisms by which reservoir drawdown interacts with reservoir morphometry to affect fish habitat availability.

Idaho↗