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Geologic summary of the Appalachian basin, with reference to the subsurface disposal of radioactive waste solutions

The Appalachian basin is an elongate depression in the crystalline basement complex which contains a great volume of predominantly sedimentary stratified rocks. As defined in this paper it extends from the Adirondack Mountains in New York to central Alabama. From east to west it extends from the west flank of the Blue Ridge Mountains to the crest of the Findlay and Cincinnati arches and the Nashville dome. It encompasses an area of about 207,000 square miles, including all of West Virginia and parts of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. The stratified rocks that occupy the basin constitute a wedge-shaped mass whose axis of greatest thickness lies close to and parallel to the east edge of the basin. The maximum thickness of stratified rocks preserved in any one part of the basin today is between 35,000 and 40,000 feet. The volume of the sedimentary rocks is approximately 510,000 cubic miles and of volcanic rocks is a few thousand cubic miles. The sedimentary rocks are predominantly Paleozoic in age, whereas the volcanic rocks are predominantly Late Precambrian. On the basis of gross lithology the stratified rocks overlying the crystalline basement complex can be divided into nine vertically sequential units, which are designated "sequences" in this report. The boundaries between contiguous sequences do not necessarily coincide with the commonly recognized boundaries between systems or series. All sequences are grossly wedge shaped, being thickest along the eastern margin of the basin and thinnest along the western margin. The lowermost unit the Late Precambrian stratified sequence is present only along part of the eastern margin of the basin, where it lies unconformably on the basement complex. It consists largely of volcanic tuffs and flows but contains some interbedded sedimentary rocks. The Late Precambrian sequence is overlain by the Early Cambrian clastic sequence. Where the older sequence is absent, the Early Cambrian sequence rests on the basement complex. Interbedded fine- to coarse-grained noncarbonate detrital rocks comprise the bulk of the sequence, but some volcanic and carbonate rocks are included. Next above is the Cambrian-Ordovician carbonate sequence which consists largely of limestone and dolomite. Some quartzose sandstone is present in the lower part in the western half of the basin, and much shale is present in the upper part in the southeast part of the basin. The next higher sequence is the Late Ordovician clastic sequence, which consists largely of shale, siltstone, and sandstone. Coarse-grained light-gray to red rocks are common in the sequence along the eastern side of the basin, whereas fine-grained dark-gray to black calcareous rocks are common along the west side. The Late Ordovician clastic sequence is overlain unconformably in many places by the Early Silurian clastic sequence. The latter comprises a relatively thin wedge of coarse-grained clastic rocks. Some of the most prolific oil- and gas-producing sandstones in the Appalachian basin are included. Among these are the "Clinton" sands of Ohio, the Medina Sandstones of New York and Pennsylvania, and the Keefer or "Big Six" Sandstone of West Virginia and Kentucky. Conformably overlying the Early Silurian clastic sequence is the Silurian-Devonian carbonate sequence, which consists predominantly of limestone and dolomite. It also contains a salt-bearing unit in the north-central part of the basin and a thick wedge of coarse-grained red beds in the northeastern part. The sequence is absent in much of the southern part of the basin. Large volumes of gas and much oil are obtained from some of its rocks, especially from the Oriskany Sandstone and the Huntersville Ghert. The Silurian-Devonian carbonate sequence is abruptly overlain by the Devonian clastic sequence a thick succession of interbedded shale, mudrock, siltstone, and sandstone. Colors range from predominantly purple and red in the northeastern part of the basin to predominantly dark gray and black in the southwestern part. Many rocks in the upper part contain hydrocarbons in commercial quantities. The next higher sequence is a heterogeneous succession that comprises most rocks of Mississippian age in the basin. It is composed largely of fine-grained to very coarse-grained noncalcareous clastic rocks in the northern half of the basin, and largely of carbonate rocks in the southern part. Large quantities of oil and gas are produced from the sequence. The youngest sequence consists of coarse-grained clastic rocks largely of Pennsylvanian age. In the center of the basin a relatively small volume of lithologically similar rocks of Permian age are included. The sequence has been intensively mined for coal throughout most of its extent. The waste-disposal possibilities of the stratified rocks in the Appalachian basin are considered in terms of the following: 1) gross lithology of the sequences; 2) general lithology of the rock units composing the sequences; and 3) the structural attitudes of the sequences in different parts of the basin. The degree of exploitation of economically significant mineral* resources is considered briefly where such exploitation may affect waste-disposal possibilities. Hydrologic aspects are not in general considered. Based largely on consideration of the above geologic factors the following types of reservoirs associated with particular geologic environments offer some prospects for the disposal of radioactive waste solutions. They are: 1) artificially created cavities in thick salt beds; 2) artificially fractured thin lenticular sandstone bodies isolated in shale or mudrock sequences; 3) portions of thick noncarbonate clastic sequences possessing appreciable natural porosity and permeability; 4) thin clastic units (with natural or artificially created openings) in the plate of a thrust fault overlain by impermeable strata. Considered in its entirety the Late Ordovician clastic sequence appears to have a greater number of favorable geologic factors for waste-disposal purposes than the others. The Early Silurian clastic sequence, the Silurian-Devonian carbonate sequence, and the Devonian clastic sequence offer fewer possibilities. The Late Precambrian stratified sequence, Early Cambrian, and the Cambrian-Ordovician carbonate sequence offer few possibilities. The Mississippian and Pennsylvanian sequences appear to be generally unsuitable.

Appalachian Basin↗

Interbasin flow in the Great Basin with special reference to the southern Funeral Mountains and the source of Furnace Creek springs, Death Valley, California, U.S.

Interbasin flow in the Great Basin has been established by scientific studies during the past century. While not occurring uniformly between all basins, its occurrence is common and is a function of the hydraulic gradient between basins and hydraulic conductivity of the intervening rocks. The Furnace Creek springs in Death Valley, California are an example of large volume springs that are widely accepted as being the discharge points of regional interbasin flow. The flow path has been interpreted historically to be through consolidated Paleozoic carbonate rocks in the southern Funeral Mountains. This work reviews the preponderance of evidence supporting the concept of interbasin flow in the Death Valley region and the Great Basin and addresses the conceptual model of pluvial and recent recharge [Nelson, S.T., Anderson, K., Mayo, A.L., 2004. Testing the interbasin flow hypothesis at Death Valley, California. EOS 85, 349; Anderson, K., Nelson, S., Mayo, A., Tingey, D., 2006. Interbasin flow revisited: the contribution of local recharge to high-discharge springs, Death Valley, California. Journal of Hydrology 323, 276-302] as the source of the Furnace Creek springs. We find that there is insufficient modern recharge and insufficient storage potential and permeability within the basin-fill units in the Furnace Creek basin for these to serve as a local aquifer. Further, the lack of high sulfate content in the spring waters argues against significant flow through basin-fill sediments and instead suggests flow through underlying consolidated carbonate rocks. The maximum temperature of the spring discharge appears to require deep circulation through consolidated rocks; the Tertiary basin fill is of insufficient thickness to generate such temperatures as a result of local fluid circulation. Finally, the stable isotope data and chemical mass balance modeling actually support the interbasin flow conceptual model rather than the alternative presented in Nelson et al. [Nelson, S.T., Anderson, K., Mayo, A.L., 2004. Testing the interbasin flow hypothesis at Death Valley, California. EOS 85, 349] and Anderson et al. [Anderson, K., Nelson, S., Mayo, A., Tingey, D., 2006. Interbasin flow revisited: the contribution of local recharge to high-discharge springs, Death Valley, California. Journal of Hydrology 323, 276-302]. In light of these inconsistencies, interbasin flow is the only readily apparent explanation for the large spring discharges at Furnace Creek and, in our view, is the likely explanation for most large volume, low elevation springs in the Great Basin. An understanding of hydrogeologic processes that control the rate and direction of ground-water flow in eastern and central Nevada is necessary component of regional water-resource planning and management of alluvial and bedrock aquifers.

Journal of Hydrology↗

A multiple-point geostatistical method for characterizing uncertainty of subsurface alluvial units and its effects on flow and transport

This report provides a proof-of-concept to demonstrate the potential application of multiple-point geostatistics for characterizing geologic heterogeneity and its effect on flow and transport simulation. The study presented in this report is the result of collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Stanford University. This collaboration focused on improving the characterization of alluvial deposits by incorporating prior knowledge of geologic structure and estimating the uncertainty of the modeled geologic units. In this study, geologic heterogeneity of alluvial units is characterized as a set of stochastic realizations, and uncertainty is indicated by variability in the results of flow and transport simulations for this set of realizations. This approach is tested on a hypothetical geologic scenario developed using data from the alluvial deposits in Yucca Flat, Nevada. Yucca Flat was chosen as a data source for this test case because it includes both complex geologic and hydrologic characteristics and also contains a substantial amount of both surface and subsurface geologic data. Multiple-point geostatistics is used to model geologic heterogeneity in the subsurface. A three-dimensional (3D) model of spatial variability is developed by integrating alluvial units mapped at the surface with vertical drill-hole data. The SNESIM (Single Normal Equation Simulation) algorithm is used to represent geologic heterogeneity stochastically by generating 20 realizations, each of which represents an equally probable geologic scenario. A 3D numerical model is used to simulate groundwater flow and contaminant transport for each realization, producing a distribution of flow and transport responses to the geologic heterogeneity. From this distribution of flow and transport responses, the frequency of exceeding a given contaminant concentration threshold can be used as an indicator of uncertainty about the location of the contaminant plume boundary.

Open-File Report↗

Geophysical data collected during the 2014 minute 319 pulse flow on the Colorado River below Morelos Dam, United States and Mexico

Geophysical methods were used to monitor infiltration during a water release, referred to as a “pulse flow,” in the Colorado River delta in March and April 2014. The pulse flow was enabled by Minute 319 of the 1944 United States–Mexico Treaty concerning water of the Colorado River. Fieldwork was carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada as part of a binational effort to monitor the hydrologic effects of the pulse flow along the limitrophe (border) reach of the Colorado River and into Mexico. Repeat microgravity measurements were made at 25 locations in the southern limitrophe reach to quantify aquifer storage change during the pulse flow. Observed increases in storage along the river were greater with distance to the south, and the amount of storage change decreased away from the river channel. Gravity data at four monitoring well sites indicate specific yield equal to 0.32±0.05. Electromagnetic induction methods were used at 12 transects in the limitrophe reach of the river along the United States– Mexico border, and farther south into Mexico. These data, which are sensitive to variation in soil texture and water content, suggest relatively homogeneous conditions. Repeat direct-current resistivity measurements were collected at two locations to monitor groundwater elevation. Results indicate rapid groundwater-level rise during the pulse flow in the limitrophe reach and smaller variation at a more southern transect. Together, these data are useful for hydrogeologic characterization and hydrologic model development. Electronic data files are provided in the accompanying data release (Kennedy and others, 2016a).

Arizona, Baja California, California↗

Data management system for USGS/USEPA urban hydrology studies program

A data management system was developed to store, update, and retrieve data collected in urban stormwater studies jointly conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 11 cities in the United States. The data management system is used to retrieve and combine data from USGS data files for use in rainfall, runoff, and water-quality models and for data computations such as storm loads. The system is based on the data management aspect of the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and was used to create all the data files in the data base. SAS is used for storage and retrieval of basin physiography, land-use, and environmental practices inventory data. Also, storm-event water-quality characteristics are stored in the data base. The advantages of using SAS to create and manage a data base are many with a few being that it is simple, easy to use, contains a comprehensive statistical package, and can be used to modify files very easily. Data base system development has progressed rapidly during the last two decades and the data managment system concepts used in this study reflect the advancement made in computer technology during this era. Urban stormwater data is, however, just one application for which the system can be used. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Distribution of soil organic carbon in the conterminous United States

The U.S. Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database provides detailed soil mapping for most of the conterminous United States (CONUS). These data have been used to formulate estimates of soil carbon stocks, and have been useful for environmental models, including plant productivity models, hydrologic models, and ecological models for studies of greenhouse gas exchange. The data were compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) from 1:24,000-scale or 1:12,000-scale maps. It was found that the total soil organic carbon stock in CONUS to 1 m depth is 57 Pg C and for the total profile is 73 Pg C, as estimated from SSURGO with data gaps filled from the 1:250,000-scale Digital General Soil Map. We explore the non-linear distribution of soil carbon on the landscape and with depth in the soil, and the implications for sampling strategies that result from the observed soil carbon variability.

Book chapter↗

Activities of the Water Resources Division, California District, in the 1987 fiscal year

The mission of the Water Resources Division is to provide the hydrologic information and understanding needed for the optimum utilization and management of the Nation 's water resources for the overall benefit of the people of the United States. Several of the most relevant and visible studies being conducted by the California District deal with selenium toxicity in the western San Joaquin Valley; groundwater export from the Owens Valley, coupled with vegetation survivability studies; hydrodynamics variability in San Francisco Bay; reclaimed water use; seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara area; and involvement in the water-quality standard/water-rights hearing for the San Francisco Bay/Delta. Thirty-nine project summaries are provided. Water Resources Division basic mission and program, California District organization and funding, and 1987 water conditions are also summarized. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report↗

Water-resources activities, North Dakota District, fiscal year 1990

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, is to provide the hydrologic information and understanding needed for the optimum utilization and management of the Nation's water resources for the overall benefit of the people of the United States. This report describes waterresources activities of the Water Resources Division in North Dakota in fiscal year 1990. Information on each project includes objectives, approach, progress in fiscal year 1990, plans for fiscal year 1991, completed and planned report products, and the name of the project chief.

Open-File Report↗

Water-resources activities, North Dakota District, Fiscal Year 1992

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, is to provide the hydrologic information and understanding needed for the optimum utilization and management of the Nation's water resources for the overall benefit of the people of the United States. This report describes water-resources activities of the Water Resources Division in North Dakota in fiscal year 1992. Information on each project includes objectives, approach, progress, plans for fiscal year 1993, and completed and planned report products.

Open-File Report↗

Water-resources activities, North Dakota District, fiscal year 1994-95

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, is to provide the hydrologic information and understanding needed for the optimum utilization and management of the Nation's water resources for the overall benefit of the people of the United States. This report describes water-resources activities of the Water Resources Division in North Dakota in fiscal year 1994. Information on each project includes objectives, approach, progress, plans for fiscal year 1995, and completed and planned report products.

Open-File Report↗

Geology and hydrology of the Edwards Aquifer in the San Antonio area, Texas

The Edwards aquifer, which is the sole source of water for the city of San Antonio, is one of the most permeable and productive carbonate aquifers in the United States. The aquifer is composed of extensively faulted, fractured, and cavernous limestone and dolomite of Early Cretaceous age lying within the Balcones fault zone a series of normal en echelon strike faults that separate the Edwards Plateau from the Gulf Coastal Plain in south Texas. Along segments of some faults, the entire thickness of the aquifer is displaced vertically, and these faults then act as barriers to downdip ground-water flow. The large porosity and exceptional permeability of the unconfined part of the Edwards aquifer result from the dissolution of limestone by circulating ground water and development of a cavernous network along fractures. The large porosity and permeability of the freshwater part of the confined Edwards aquifer result primarily from dedolomitization. The small permeability of the saline-water part of the confined aquifer is caused by the limited interconnection between the pores in the rock matrix and by the lack of substantial dissolution along fractures. The large transmissivity of the Edwards aquifer is indicated by the hundreds of highyielding wells, small hydraulic gradients, and large spring discharges. The determined transmissivity throughout most of the confined freshwater aquifer ranges from 430,000 to 2,200,000 feet squared per day; the determined transmissivity of the unconfined aquifer generally is less than 430,000 feet squared per day. Faulting causes the aquifer to be highly anisotropic, and simulation indicates anisotropy ratios ranging from 0.0:1 to 1:1. The ground-water-flow system of the Edwards aquifer includes several components. These include a catchment area on the Edwards Plateau where the unconfined aquifer receives direct recharge, an area of confining beds crossed by streams draining the Edwards Plateau, a major recharge area within the Balcones fault zone where streams lose flow directly into the unconfined Edwards aquifer, and the confined Edwards aquifer that consists of the freshwater and salinewater zones. Water entering the Edwards aquifer in the Balcones fault zone moves downdip in a generally southeasterly direction into the confined parts of the aquifer. In the confined aquifer, flow is toward the east and northeast under low hydraulic gradients through fractured, highly transmissive limestone and ultimately discharges at large springs and wells. All of the base flow and some of the storm runoff of streams crossing the recharge area infiltrates to the unconfined aquifer. On the basis of streamflow losses, the average annual recharge for 1934-88 was 635,500 acre-feet. Freshwater discharges from the Edwards aquifer primarily from wells, springs, and seeps. Beginning in 1968, annual discharge from the aquifer has consistently exceeded average annual recharge largely because of a doubling of well pumpage. However, total springflow also increased because of greater-than-average recharge during most years since the late 1960's. The total volume of circulating freshwater in the Edwards aquifer is about 45 million acrefeet. Long-term hydrographs at San Antonio indicate no net decline in ground-water levels during 1911-87; thus, there was no net loss of water from storage in the freshwater zone of the Edwards aquifer during that long-term period, assuming the San Antonio hydrograph represents the entire aquifer. However, short-term changes in water levels result largely from the variability of precipitation as indicated by severe declines during the drought of the late 1940's to middle 1950's and by rises to record highs during the abnormally wet years in the 1970's and 1980's. The principal components of the groundwater budget (recharge, springflow, and pumpage) have varied greatly over 55 years (1934-88) of pertinent hydrologic records. Annual recharge varied from about 44,000 to 2,000,000 acre-feet. Annual springflow varied from about 70,000 acrefeet to about 580,000 acre-feet. Pumpage increased from about 100,000 acre-feet annually in the early 1930's to more than 500,000 acre-feet annually during some years in the 1980's. However, the average annual recharge of 635,500 acrefeet is about equal to the sum of the average annual springflow (359,500 acre-feet) and average annual pumpage (273,000 acre-feet), indicating no longterm decrease in ground-water storage because of springflow and pumpage.

Texas↗

Hotter temperatures alter riparian plant outcomes under regulated river conditions

Climate change and river regulation alter environmental controls on riparian plant occurrence and cover worldwide. Simultaneous changes to river flow and air temperature could result in unanticipated plant responses to novel environmental conditions. Increasing temperature could alter riparian plant response to hydrology and other factors, while river regulation may exacerbate environmental stress through novel flows like those resulting from power generation. Further, plant establishment and growth may require differing conditions, which may be decoupled by novel conditions. Using a large dataset that spans a natural 5°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient and a Bayesian model that integrates plant occurrence and cover, we address four questions: (1) Does hotter MAT modify plant response to hydrology, substrate composition, topography, and cover of co-occurring plant species? (2) Does the timing of hydropower tides benefit some species over others? (3) Does dam-induced erosion hinder riparian species more than upland species? (4) Do occurrence and cover respond to different environmental variables, allowing for decoupling of life history processes? We addressed these questions with data collected along 364 km of the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, United States of America. Occurrence and cover class were recorded in >10,000 plots from 2016 to 2020, along with environmental covariates that repeat across the climate gradient. For 36 species, plant occurrence and cover were modeled with respect to MAT, hydrology, substrate, topography, other plant cover, and their interactions with MAT. There were four key results. (1) Increasing MAT will not only directly influence plants but will mediate their responses to the environment, including greater dependence on stable water supplies. (2) The timing of hydropower tides shapes plant community composition. (3) Dam-related erosion has an outsized effect on riparian species, which could lead to a loss of regionally unique plant species. (4) For all species, the most important covariates driving occurrence differed from those for cover, suggesting the potential for these life stages to be decoupled. Not only will climate change and river regulation independently alter plant distributions, interactions among hotter temperature, dam-controlled flow patterns, and limited fine sediments will determine which species flourish or perish under future conditions.

Arizona↗

Land-Cover Trends of the Central Basin and Range Ecoregion

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends research project is focused on understanding the amounts, rates, trends, causes, and implications of contemporary land-use and land-cover (LU/LC) change in the United States. This project is supported by the USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). LU/LC change is a pervasive process that modifies landscape characteristics and affects a broad range of socioeconomic, biologic, and hydrologic systems. Understanding the impacts and feedbacks of LU/LC change on environmental systems requires an understanding of the rates, patterns, and driving forces of past, present, and future LU/LC change. The objectives of the Land Cover Trends project are to (1) determine and describe the amount, rates, and trends of contemporary LU/LC change by ecoregion for the period 1973-2000 for the conterminous United States, (2) document the causes, driving forces, and implications of change, and (3) synthesize individual ecoregion results into a national assessment of LU/LC change. The Land Cover Trends research team includes staff from the USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, Eastern Geographic Science Center, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center, and the Western Geographic Science Center. Other partners include researchers at South Dakota State University, University of Southern Mississippi, and State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. This report presents an assessment of LU/LC change in the Central Basin and Range ecoregion for the period 1973-2000. The Central Basin and Range ecoregion is one of 84 Level-III ecoregions as defined by the Environmental Protection Agency. Ecoregions have served as a spatial framework for environmental resource management and to denote areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of biotic and abiotic phenomena including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The established Land Cover Trends methodology generates estimates of LU/LC change using a probability sampling approach and change-detection analysis of thematic land-cover images derived from Landsat satellite imagery.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Baseflow and stormflow metal fluxes from two small agricultural catchments in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay Basin, United States

Annual yields (fluxes per unit area) of Al, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr, Co, As and Se were estimated for two small non-tidal stream catchments on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, United States - a poorly drained dissected-upland watershed in the Nanticoke River Basin, and a well-drained feeder tributary in the lower reaches of the Chester River Basin. Both watersheds are dominated by agriculture. A hydrograph-separation technique was used to determine the baseflow and stormflow components of metal yields, thus providing important insights into the effects of hydrology and climate on the transport of metals. Concentrations of suspended-sediment were used as a less-costly proxy of metal concentrations which are generally associated with particles. Results were compared to other studies in Chesapeake Bay and to general trends in metal concentrations across the United States. The study documented a larger than background yield of Zn and Co from the upper Nanticoke River Basin and possibly enriched concentrations of As, Cd and Se from both the upper Nanticoke River and the Chesterville Branch (a tributary of the lower Chester River). The annual yield of total Zn from the Nanticoke River Basin in 1998 was 18,000 g/km2/a, and was two to three times higher than yields reported from comparable river basins in the region. Concentrations of Cd also were high in both basins when compared to crustal concentrations and to other national data, but were within reasonable agreement with other Chesapeake Bay studies. Thus, Cd may be enriched locally either in natural materials or from agriculture.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Effects of surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows on the hydrology of the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin in Citrus County, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, initiated a study to quantify the inflows and outflows in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools of the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin in Citrus County, Florida. This study assesses hydrologic changes in pool stages, groundwater levels, spring flows, and streamflows caused by the diversion of streamflow from the Withlacoochee River to the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin through water-control structures. A surface-water/groundwater flow model was developed using hydraulic parameters for lakes, streams, the unsaturated zone, and the underlying surficial and Upper Floridan aquifers estimated using an inverse modeling calibration technique. After calibration, the model was used to assess the relation between inflows and outflows in the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin and changes in pool stages. Simulation results using the calibrated surface-water/groundwater flow model showed that leakage rates from the pools to the Upper Floridan aquifer were largest at the deep lake cells and that these leakage rates to the Upper Floridan aquifer were the highest in the model area. Downward leakage to the Upper Floridan aquifer occurred beneath most of the extent of the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools. These leakage rates depended on the lakebed leakance and the difference between lake stages and heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Leakage rates were higher for the Floral City pool than for the Inverness pool, and higher for the Inverness pool than for the Hernando pool. Lakebed leakance was higher for the Floral City pool than for the Hernando pool, and higher for the Hernando pool than for the Inverness pool. Simulation results showed that the average recharge rate to the surficial aquifer was 10.3 inches per year for the 2004 to 2012 simulation period. Areas that recharge the surficial aquifer covered about 86 percent of the model area. Simulations identified areas along segments of the Withlacoochee River and within land-surface depressions that receive water from the surficial aquifer. Recharge rates were largest in physiographic regions having a deep water table. Simulated heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer indicated the general flow directions in the active flow model area were from the northeast toward the southwest and then westward toward the coast, and from the southeast toward the northwest and then westward toward the coast, consistent with flow directions inferred from the estimated potentiometric surface map for May 2010. The largest inflow in the water budget of the Upper Floridan aquifer was downward leakage from the overlying hydrogeologic unit. The largest outflow in the water budget of the Upper Floridan aquifer was spring flow. The calibrated surface-water and groundwater flow model was used to simulate hydrologic scenarios that included changes in rainfall rates, projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2025 and 2035, no flow for the 2004–12 period through the eight water-control structures in the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin, and the removal of the Inglis Dam and the Inglis Bypass Spillway on Lake Rousseau. Scenario simulation results were compared to annual average calibrated water levels and flows from 2004 to 2012. Simulated declines in the Tsala Apopka Lake pool stages under the 10-percent lower rainfall scenario were about 0.8, 0.3, and 1.3 feet (ft) for the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools, respectively. Simulated groundwater levels under the same scenario declined up to 5.4 ft in the surficial aquifer and up to 2.9 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Under the projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2035 that represented an increase of 36 percent from average 2004 to 2012 pumping rates, the simulated declines in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pool stages were, in downstream order, 0.02, 0.06, and 0.04 ft. The largest drawdown under the projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2035 was 2.1 ft in the surficial aquifer and about 1.8 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer. A scenario of decreased rainfall by 10 percent caused greater declines in water levels and pool stages than projected increases in groundwater pumping rates. The simulation with no flow through the eight Tsala Apopka Lake water-control structures resulted in simulated declines in average pool stage of 1.8, 1.9, and 0.5 ft in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools, respectively. The simulated removal of the two water-control structures in Lake Rousseau caused flow to increase at Rainbow Springs by 28 cubic feet per second, an increase of 4.7 percent from the average calibrated flow for 2004 to 2012.

Florida↗

Physically based estimation of rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides in volcanic slopes of southern Italy

On the 4th and 5th of March 2005, about 100 rainfall-induced landslides occurred along volcanic slopes of Camaldoli Hill in Naples, Italy. These started as soil slips in the upper substratum of incoherent and welded volcaniclastic deposits, then evolved downslope according to debris avalanche and debris flow mechanisms. This specific case of slope instability on complex volcaniclastic deposits remains poorly characterized and understood, although similar shallow landsliding phenomena have largely been studied in other peri-volcanic areas of the Campania region underlain by carbonate bedrock. Considering the landslide hazard in this urbanized area, this study focused on quantitatively advancing the understanding of the predisposing factors and hydrological conditions contributing to the initial landslide triggering. Borehole drilling, trial pits, dynamic penetrometer tests, topographic surveys, and infiltration tests were conducted on a slope sector of Camaldoli Hill to develop a geological framework model. Undisturbed soil samples were collected for laboratory testing to further characterize hydraulic and geotechnical properties of the soil units identified. In situ soil pressure head monitoring probes were also installed. A numerical model of two-dimensional variably saturated subsurface water flow was parameterized for the monitored hillslope using field and laboratory data. Based on the observed soil pressure head dynamics, the model was calibrated by adjusting the evapotranspiration parameters. This physically based hydrologic model was combined with an infinite-slope stability analysis to reconstruct the critical unsaturated/saturated conditions leading to slope failure. This coupled hydromechanical numerical model was then used to determine intensity–duration (I-D) thresholds for landslide initiation over a range of plausible rainfall intensities and topographic slope angles for the region. The proposed approach can be conceived as a practicable method for defining a warning criterion in urbanized areas threatened by rainfall-induced shallow landslides, given the unavailability of a consistent inventory of past landslide events that prevents a rigorous empirical analysis.

Water↗

Evaluation of streamflow predictions from LSTM models in water- and energy-limited regions in the United States

The application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for streamflow predictions has been an area of rapid development, supported by advancements in computing technology, increasing availability of spatiotemporal data, and availability of historical data that allows for training data-driven LSTM models. Several studies have focused on improving the performance of LSTM models; however, few studies have assessed the applicability of these LSTM models across different hydroclimate regions. This study investigated the single-basin trained local (one model for each basin), multi-basin trained regional (one model for one region), and grand (one model for several regions) models for predicting daily streamflow in water-limited Great Basin (18 basins) and energy-limited New England (27 basins) regions in the United States using the CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) data set. The results show a general pattern of higher accuracy in daily streamflow predictions from the regional model when compared to local or grand models for most basins in the New England region. For the Great Basin region, local models provided smaller errors for most basins and substantially lower for those basins with relatively larger errors from the regional and grand models. The evaluation of one-layer and three-layer LSTM network architectures trained with 1-day lag information indicates that the addition of model complexity by increasing the number of layers may not necessarily increase the model skill for improving streamflow predictions. Findings from our study highlight the strengths and limitations of LSTM models across contrasting hydroclimate regions in the United States, which could be useful for local and regional scale decisions using standalone or potential integration of data-driven LSTM models with physics-based hydrological models.

Machine Learning with Applications↗