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USGS2017

Assessing the risk of non-native marine species in the Bering Sea

Invasive species are one of the leading global conservation concerns, which can have strong, negative impacts on ecosystems, vulnerable species, and valuable natural resources. Arctic regions have experienced a relatively low number of biological introductions to date. Their geographical remoteness, cold waters, and presence of sea ice present challenging conditions for both non-native organisms and the vessels that transport them, presumably leading to low rates of introduction and establishment. However, observed increases in water temperatures reductions in sea ice, and projected increases in shipping traffic are expected to render arctic marine regions more susceptible to the arrival and colonization of marine invasives. Risk assessments for these Arctic regions are important to inform management and monitoring priorities by determining which species pose the greatest risk. To this end, we developed a ranking system for non-native marine species and used this system to assess the risk of non-native species to the Bering Sea. Using species’ published physiological tolerances, we mapped habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios to identify geographic areas of current and future concern. In addition, we described shipping traffic from commercial and fishing vessels to identify ports of entry for non-native species. Collectively, these analyses identify which marine species have the greatest risk for invasion, where in the Bering Sea invasion risk and species establishment is greatest, and which ports are most likely to serve as an entry point for marine invasives into Alaska’s Bering Sea. The ranking system we developed for non-native marine species consists of 33 questions grouped into five categories. The first four categories evaluate a species’ ability to arrive and establish in the Bering Sea, its reliance on humans for introductions, its biology, and its impacts on ecological and human systems. The fifth category is not included in the total ranking score, but provides information on management considerations. The ranking system has methods to account for data deficiencies and calculates these deficiencies to allow readers to weigh the lack of knowledge with the ranking score. We prioritized non-native species for ranking based on their geographic proximity to the Bering Sea. We evaluated 46 species and ranking scores ranged from 29.1 to 74.3 (out of a possible 100), with highest scores indicating greatest risk. Taxonomy at the level of phylum did not explain variation in ranking values, likely due to the substantial biological variation relative to our ranking criteria among members of the same phylum. To investigate where non-native species may survive and persist in the Bering Sea, we compared species’ temperature and salinity thresholds to environmental conditions of the Bering Sea. Environmental conditions were obtained from three Regional Ocean Modeling Systems (ROMS) and investigated under two time periods: current (2003-2012) and mid-century (2030-2039). We identified potential habitat for survival for 42 species, and potential habitat for reproduction for 29 species. Under current conditions, all species had temperature and salinity thresholds that would allow survival in the Bering Sea for at least part of the year, and most species (79% to 83%) had thresholds that would allow for survival year-round. For species with temperature and salinity thresholds unsuitable for survival in the Bering Sea, winter temperatures appear to be the limiting factor. Most species had six to nine weeks of suitable conditions for reproduction. Future increases in water temperatures are expected to open more habitat for marine invasives. Two of the three ROMs project an increase in the number of non-native species that would be able to survive year-round by mid-century. Moreover, models project between 37% and 60% of the Bering Sea shelf habitat to become more suitable under mid-century climate condition.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

California↗
USGS2014

Mechanisms of drift-feeding behavior in juvenile Chinook salmon and the role of inedible debris in a clear water Alaskan stream

Drift-feeding fish are challenged to discriminate between prey and similar-sized particles of debris, which are ubiquitous even in clear-water streams. Spending time and energy pursuing debris mistaken as prey could affect fish growth and the fitness potential of different foraging strategies. Our goal was to determine the extent to which debris influences drift-feeding fish in clear water under low-flow conditions when the distracting effect of debris should be at a minimum. We used high-definition video to measure the reactions of drift-feeding juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to natural debris and prey in situ in the Chena River, Alaska. Among all potential food items fish pursued, 52 % were captured and quickly expelled from the mouth, 39 % were visually inspected but not captured, and only 9 % were ingested. Foraging attempt rate was only moderately correlated with ingestion rate (Kendall’s τ = 0.55), raising concerns about the common use of foraging attempts as a presumed index of foraging success. The total time fish spent handling debris increased linearly with foraging attempt rate and ranged between 4 and 25 % of total foraging time among observed groups. Our results help motivate a revised theoretical view of drift feeding that emphasizes prey detection and discrimination, incorporating ideas from signal detection theory and the study of visual attention in cognitive ecology. We discuss how these ideas could lead to better explanations and predictions of the spatial behavior, prey selection, and energy intake of drift-feeding fish.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Temporal variability in irrigated land and climate influences on salinity loading across the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2017

Freshwater salinization is a growing global concern impacting human and ecosystem needs with impacts to water availability for human and ecological uses. In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), dissolved solids in streams compound ongoing water supply challenges to further limit water availability and cause economic damages. Much effort has been dedicated to understanding dissolved solid sources, transport, and management in the region, yet temporal variability in loading from key sources such as irrigated lands and the influence of climate on dissolved solids loading remains unknown. Quantifying the contributions and temporal variability of dissolved solids loads from irrigated lands may benefit salinity management efforts. This study applies a time-varying (dynamic) modeling approach to predict annual dissolved solids loads across the UCRB from 1986 through 2017. Between 66% and 82% of the total accumulated dissolved solids load in the basin is from groundwater (storage and baseflow). Our findings link climate, irrigation, and groundwater, and confirm large storage contributions that have declined slightly with time. Dissolved solids loads increase during wet periods and decrease during dry periods, although the relative contributions of different sources vary little with time. Irrigation enhances loading efficiency relative to unirrigated areas through runoff and groundwater, and can locally be a major source of dissolved solids where irrigation occurs. Results indicate that loads from irrigated areas increase when irrigated area and/or water available for runoff increase. Increased regional aridification over the study period may have contributed to decreasing stream salinity through both quicker surface runoff and lagged groundwater storage processes. Study results may be relevant to salinity management in arid environments where water availability is limited and where irrigation influences salinity loading to streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2016

Linking field-based metabolomics and chemical analyses to prioritize contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes basin

The ability to focus on the most biologically relevant contaminants affecting aquatic ecosystems can be challenging because toxicity-assessment programs have not kept pace with the growing number of contaminants requiring testing. Because it has proven effective at assessing the biological impacts of potentially toxic contaminants, profiling of endogenous metabolites (metabolomics) may help screen out contaminants with a lower likelihood of eliciting biological impacts, thereby prioritizing the most biologically important contaminants. The authors present results from a study that utilized cage-deployed fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) at 18 sites across the Great Lakes basin. They measured water temperature and contaminant concentrations in water samples (132 contaminants targeted, 86 detected) and used 1 H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to measure endogenous metabolites in polar extracts of livers. They used partial least-squares regression to compare relative abundances of endogenous metabolites with contaminant concentrations and temperature. The results indicated that profiles of endogenous polar metabolites covaried with at most 49 contaminants. The authors identified up to 52% of detected contaminants as not significantly covarying with changes in endogenous metabolites, suggesting they likely were not eliciting measurable impacts at these sites. This represents a first step in screening for the biological relevance of detected contaminants by shortening lists of contaminants potentially affecting these sites. Such information may allow risk assessors to prioritize contaminants and focus toxicity testing on the most biologically relevant contaminants. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2493–2502.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2024

Causal inference approaches reveal both positive and negative unintended effects of agricultural and urban management practices on instream biological condition

Agricultural and urban management practices (MPs) are primarily designed and implemented to reduce nutrient and sediment concentrations in streams. However, there is growing interest in determining if MPs produce any unintended positive effects, or co-benefits, to instream biological and habitat conditions. Identifying co-benefits is challenging though because of confounding variables (i.e., those that affect both where MPs are applied and stream biota), which can be accounted for in novel causal inference approaches. Here, we used two causal inference approaches, propensity score matching (PSM) and Bayesian network learning (BNL), to identify potential MP co-benefits in the Chesapeake Bay watershed portion of Maryland, USA. Specifically, we examined how MPs may modify instream conditions that impact fish and macroinvertebrate indices of biotic integrity (IBI) and functional and taxonomic endpoints. We found evidence of positive unintended effects of MPs for both benthic macroinvertebrates and fish indicated by higher IBI scores and specific endpoints like the number of scraper macroinvertebrate taxa and lithophilic spawning fish taxa in a subset of regions. However, our results also suggest MPs have negative unintended effects, especially on sensitive benthic macroinvertebrate taxa and key instream habitat and water quality metrics like specific conductivity. Overall, our results suggest MPs offer co-benefits in some regions and catchments with largely degraded conditions but can have negative unintended effects in some regions, especially in catchments with good biological conditions. We suggest the number and types of MPs drove these mixed results and highlight carefully designed MP implementation that incorporates instream biological data at the catchment scale could facilitate co-benefits to instream biological conditions. Our study underscores the need for more research on identifying effects of individual MP types on instream biological and habitat conditions.

Maryland↗
USGS2015

Large fractions of CO 2 -fixing microorganisms in pristine limestone aquifers appear to be involved in the oxidation of reduced sulfur and nitrogen compounds

The traditional view of the dependency of subsurface environments on surface-derived allochthonous carbon inputs is challenged by increasing evidence for the role of lithoautotrophy in aquifer carbon flow. We linked information on autotrophy (Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle) with that from total microbial community analysis in groundwater at two superimposed—upper and lower—limestone groundwater reservoirs (aquifers). Quantitative PCR revealed that up to 17% of the microbial population had the genetic potential to fix CO 2 via the Calvin cycle, with abundances of cbbM and cbbL genes, encoding RubisCO (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase) forms I and II, ranging from 1.14 × 10 3 to 6 × 10 6 genes liter −1 over a 2-year period. The structure of the active microbial communities based on 16S rRNA transcripts differed between the two aquifers, with a larger fraction of heterotrophic, facultative anaerobic, soil-related groups in the oxygen-deficient upper aquifer. Most identified CO 2 -assimilating phylogenetic groups appeared to be involved in the oxidation of sulfur or nitrogen compounds and harbored both RubisCO forms I and II, allowing efficient CO 2 fixation in environments with strong oxygen and CO 2 fluctuations. The genera Sulfuricella and Nitrosomonas were represented by read fractions of up to 78 and 33%, respectively, within the cbbM and cbbL transcript pool and accounted for 5.6 and 3.8% of 16S rRNA sequence reads, respectively, in the lower aquifer. Our results indicate that a large fraction of bacteria in pristine limestone aquifers has the genetic potential for autotrophic CO 2 fixation, with energy most likely provided by the oxidation of reduced sulfur and nitrogen compounds.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗
USGS2023

Climate change and pulse migration: Intermittent Chugach Inuit occupation of glacial fiords on the Kenai Coast, Alaska

For millennia, Inuit peoples of the Arctic and Subarctic have been challenged by the impacts of climate change on the abundance of key subsistence species. Responses to climate-induced declines in animal populations included switching to alternative food sources and/or migrating to regions of greater availability. We examine these dynamics for the Chugach Inuit (Sugpiat) people of southern coastal Alaska by synthesizing a large body of evidence from archeological sites, including radiocarbon dates and archaeofaunal assemblages, and by applying contemporary knowledge of glaciomarine ecosystems, spatial patterns of resource richness, and ocean-climate induced regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska. We hypothesize that Chugach groups migrated from Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula during periods of low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to harvest harbor seals, which were seasonally aggregated near tidewater glaciers during pupping season, as well as piscivorous seabirds, Pacific cod, and other species that thrive under cool ocean conditions. During warming phases, the Chugach returned to Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to fish for salmon and other species that abound during higher SSTs. Drivers of this coupled human-natural system of repeated (pulse) migration include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific that has been shown to generate step-like regime shifts in the marine food web; and coastal glaciers that structure the functioning of fiord ecosystems and support high levels of biological productivity. The culturally-constructed Chugach niche in the glaciomarine habitat of the Gulf of Alaska was based on intergenerationally transmitted ecological knowledge that enabled a resilient, mobile response to climate and resource variation.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Prior knowledge-based approach for associating contaminants with biological effects: A case study in the St. Croix River basin, MN, WI, USA

Evaluating potential adverse effects of complex chemical mixtures in the environment is challenging. One way to address that challenge is through more integrated analysis of chemical monitoring and biological effects data. In the present study, water samples from five locations near two municipal wastewater treatment plants in the St. Croix River basin, on the border of MN and WI, USA, were analyzed for 127 organic contaminants. Known chemical-gene interactions were used to develop site-specific knowledge assembly models (KAMs) and formulate hypotheses concerning possible biological effects associated with chemicals detected in water samples from each location. Additionally, hepatic gene expression data were collected for fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) exposed in situ , for 12 d, at each location. Expression data from oligonucleotide microarrays were analyzed to identify functional annotation terms enriched among the differentially-expressed probes. The general nature of many of the terms made hypothesis formulation on the basis of the transcriptome-level response alone difficult. However, integrated analysis of the transcriptome data in the context of the site-specific KAMs allowed for evaluation of the likelihood of specific chemicals contributing to observed biological responses. Thirteen chemicals (atrazine, carbamazepine, metformin, thiabendazole, diazepam, cholesterol, p-cresol, phenytoin, omeprazole, ethyromycin, 17β-estradiol, cimetidine, and estrone), for which there was statistically significant concordance between occurrence at a site and expected biological response as represented in the KAM, were identified. While not definitive, the approach provides a line of evidence for evaluating potential cause-effect relationships between components of a complex mixture of contaminants and biological effects data, which can inform subsequent monitoring and investigation.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

The efficacy of combined educational and site management actions in reducing off-trail hiking in an urban-proximate protected area

Park and protected area managers are tasked with protecting natural environments, a particularly daunting challenge in heavily visited urban-proximate areas where flora and fauna are already stressed by external threats. In this study, an adaptive management approach was taken to reduce extensive off-trail hiking along a popular trail through an ecologically diverse and significant area in the Chesapeake and Ohio National Historical Park near Washington DC. Substantial amounts of off-trail hiking there had created an extensive 16.1 km network of informal (visitor-created) trails on a 39 ha island in the Potomac Gorge. A research design with additive treatments integrating educational and site management actions was applied and evaluated using self-reported behavior from an on-site visitor survey and unobtrusive observations of off-trail hiking behavior at two locations along the trail. Study treatments included: 1) trailhead educational signs developed using attribution theory and injunctive-proscriptive wording, 2) symbolic “no hiking” prompter signs attached to logs placed across all informal trails, 3) placement of concealing leaf litter and small branches along initial sections of informal trails, 4) restoration work on selected trails with low fencing, and 5) contact with a trail steward to personally communicate the trailhead sign information. The final, most comprehensive treatment reduced visitor-reported intentional off-trail hiking from 70.3% to 43.0%. Direct observations documented reduction in off-trail hiking from 25.9% to 2.0%. The educational message and site management actions both contributed to the decline in off-trail travel and the two evaluation methods enhanced our ability to describe the efficacy of the different treatments in reducing off-trail travel.

Bear Island↗
USGS2019

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program—2018 year in review

The Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units (CRU) program had an interesting and challenging year in 2018. We made significant strategic advances on many fronts and had setbacks in others. Our relationship with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the agency we belonged to from 1935 to the mid-1990s, was further reinforced through strategic efforts with the Service’s Science Applications senior staff. This is bearing fruit in terms of research collaborations and funding support. As part of a larger effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Ecosystems Mission Area and the Service’s endangered species program, we are also collaborating to address science needs for species in pre-listing status. Barry Grand, Unit Supervisor (South), has been instrumental in this effort. Tom Edwards of the Utah Unit has met with representatives of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies to promote training of leaders and “hands dirty” biologists in species distribution modeling. The Association passed a unanimous resolution endorsing the training at their midyear meeting in March. Tom held a workshop at the annual meeting of the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies in September, and future workshops, supported by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, will be held bringing State agency and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologists together to work on species of common concern. Wyoming Unit Leader Matt Kauffman’s pioneering work in identifying and mapping big-game migration corridors has captured the attention of conservationists far and wide. In the spring, the Secretary of the Interior signed Secretarial Order No. 3362, "Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors" directing efforts of several U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) bureaus to collaborate with States in identifying and protecting big-game corridors in 11 States. Matt has conducted several workshops that directly support the Secretarial order, and more are planned. Corridor mapping efforts supported by the USGS and the DOI, based in the States and coordinated by Matt, are unfolding. Unit Administrative Officer Shana Coulby and her staff hosted a training program for university support staff at USGS National Headquarters in March. Shana’s team did a superb job, and the camaraderie among all was evident. We co-sponsored the third in a series of workshops at the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference in March on bridging the gap between science and management. The State Department requested that we coordinate a workshop that would bring CRU scientists and other U.S. representatives together with Brazilian, Colombian, and Peruvian scientists and decision makers to develop best practices to minimize environmental damage from infrastructure development in the Amazon and to collaborate on science needs. The workshop was held in Iquitos, Peru, in the heart of the Amazon during August. Our cooperator community, represented by the National Cooperators Coalition, was very active in response to the President’s budget proposal that would have redirected funding for the CRU program to other priorities. Their efforts are reflected in the House and Senate marks on the fiscal year 2019 budget that not only restored funding, but recommended increases. You will see in this report many other accomplishments of our individual scientists and students during 2018. It was an impressive and productive year! What you won’t see chronicled is the work of the CRU headquarters staff and University support staff. These folks are extraordinary in their dedication to working with cooperators and scientists to solve problems and ensure the important work gets accomplished with minimal interference. We are truly fortunate to have such skilled and dedicated folks in the trenches. I was fortunate to visit several units during 2018. For me, this is the most enriching part of my duties. I get to see firsthand the work our scientists do, the incredible students being mentored, and meet our cooperators on their turf. As we look forward towards the horizon, 2019 looks brighter for the CRU program. Efforts by our cooperators to generate support for filling our vacancies are materializing. Our cadre of scientists is second to none, and the breadth and depth of our work are nothing short of impressive. Thanks to all who are part of this cooperative endeavor—conservation is the ultimate winner in our efforts!

Circular↗
USGS2026

Post-wildfire water quality and aquatic ecosystem response in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: science and monitoring gaps

An increase in the occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the western Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, has created an urgent need for science to better inform forest management and policy decisions to maintain source water quality in the region. The western PNW faces similar challenges to other regions with shifting wildfire regimes and large population centers reliant on surface water from forested catchments. However, the uniquely wet and highly seasonal climate of the western PNW suggests that findings from other, more frequently burned regions may not be directly applicable. To identify science, monitoring, and management gaps and opportunities in the western PNW, this review was collaboratively undertaken by academics, non-government and industry representatives, and local, state, and federal government entities who have been working together since the 2020 Labor Day fires in Oregon. Focusing on Oregon and Washington, we found that monitoring networks for continuous water quantity and quality cover much of the state with greater representation in western U.S. ecoregions, but few studies have analyzed and published these data to capture and communicate the post-wildfire response. Approximately half of the streamgages in Oregon and Washington record major water quality parameters, and hundreds of sites in the area have discrete sampling for a wide range of water quality constituents. Still, numerous gaps exist in understanding the short- and long-term impacts of wildfire on hydrology, water chemistry, including pH and dissolved oxygen, mobilization of metals, aquatic ecosystems, and downstream drinking water treatment. Collective action to further collect, analyze, interpret, and publish the key data could help improve our understanding of post-wildfire water quality impacts in this and other increasingly wildfire-affected regions.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λ mean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87–1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2024

Survey effort and targeted landbird community metrics at Indiana lowland forest restoration sites

Many sampling and analytical methods can estimate the abundance, distributions, and diversity of birds and other wildlife. However, challenges with sample size and analytical capacity can make these methods difficult to implement for resource-limited monitoring programs. To apprise efficient and attainable sampling designs for landbird monitoring programs with limited observational data, we used breeding season bird point survey data collected in 2016 at four forest restoration sites in Indiana, USA. We evaluated three subsets of observed species richness, total possibly breeding landbirds, Partners in Flight Regional Conservation Concern (PIF RCC) landbirds, and interior forest specialists (IFSs). Simulated surveys based on field data were used to conduct Bayesian Michaelis–Menten curve analyses estimating observed species as a function of sampling effort. On comparing simulated survey sets with multiple habitat types versus those with one habitat, we found that those with multiple habitat types had estimated 39%–83% greater observed PIF RCC species richness and required 41%–55% fewer visits per point to observe an equivalent proportion of PIF RCC species. Even with multiple habitats in a survey set, the number of visits per point required to detect 50% of observable species was 30% higher for PIF RCC species than for total breeding landbird species. Low detection rates of IFS species at two field sites made precise estimation of required effort to observe these species difficult. However, qualitatively, we found that only sites containing mature forest fragments had detections of several bird species designated as high-confidence IFS species. Our results suggest that deriving specialized species diversity metrics from point survey data can add value when interpreting those data. Additionally, designing studies to collect these metrics may require explicitly planning to visit multiple habitat types at a monitoring site and increasing the number of visits per survey point.

Indiana↗
USGS2020

Evidence for rapid gut clearance of microplastic polyester fibers fed to Chinook Salmon: A tank study

Marine and freshwater plastic pollution is a challenging issue receiving large amounts of research and media attention. Yet, few studies have documented the impact of microplastic ingestion to aquatic organisms. In the Pacific Northwest, Chinook salmon are a culturally and commercially significant fish species. The presence of marine and freshwater microplastic pollution is well documented in Chinook salmon habitat, yet no research has investigated the impacts to salmon from microplastic ingestion. The majority of the marine microplastics found in the Salish Sea are microfibers, synthetic extruded polymers that come from commonly worn clothing. To understand the potential impacts of microfiber ingestion to fish, we ran a feeding experiment with juvenile Chinook salmon to determine if ingested fibers are retained or digestion rates altered over a 10 day digestion period. The experiment was completed in two trials, each consisted of 20 control and 20 treatment fish. Treatment fish were each fed an amended ration of 12 food pellets spiked with 20 polyester microfibers and control fish were fed the same ration without added microfibers. Fish were sampled at day 0, 3, 5, 7, and 10 to assess if fibers were retained in their gastrointestinal tract and to determine the rate of digestion. Fibers for the experiment came from washing a red polyester fleece jacket in a microfiber retention bag. Fibers had a mean length of 4.98 mm. Results showed fish were able to clear up to 94% of fed fibers over 10 days. Differences in mean gastrointestinal mass were not statistically significant at any sampled time between treatment and controls, suggesting that the ingestion of microfibers did not alter digestion rates. Further work is needed to understand if repeated exposures, expected in the environment, alter digestion or food assimilation for growth.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2025

Reconciling scale using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework to improve management of woody encroachment in grasslands

Implementing strategies to navigate large-scale ecological transitions in grasslands is one of this century's greatest conservation challenges. In the US Great Plains, managing areas impacted by woody transitions have been reactive, short-lived, costly, and ineffective. Along with current technological innovation in rangeland monitoring, the promise of early warning science is to provide managers with sufficient time to be better prepared for novel signals of ecological change. Combining the science of early warning signals and frameworks such as the Resist – Accept – Direct (RAD) can provide land managers with guidelines to identify proactive strategies when facing ecological change. Using this approach, we found that opportunities to resist woody transitions decreased from 84 % to 60 % between 1990 and 2020 over the entire biome but remained highest in the northern and western Great Plains, which contributes to large scale conservation targets. These are key areas to prioritize resist opportunities. In contrast, 11 % of the biome exhibited early warning transition signals across all hierarchical scales by 2020, a fourfold increase since 1990. Lastly by 2020, 30 % of the biome exhibited early warning signals across multiple but not all scales. Here, efforts may be more effective when management is directed to conserve fragmented grassland legacies within a woody-dominated matrix and avoid large-scale monocultures of problematic encroaching woody species. Our multi-scale study indicates that 1) anchoring to the last remaining grassland core areas with no early warning of transitions and 2) strategically investing in these intact grasslands may provide the best results for grassland conservation.

Great Plains↗
USGS2019

Comparison of a simple hydrostatic and a data-intensive 3D numerical modeling method of simulating sea-level rise induced groundwater inundation for Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA

Groundwater inundation (GWI) is a particularly challenging consequence of sea-level rise (SLR), as it progressively inundates infrastructure located above and below the ground surface. Paths of flooding by GWI differ from other types of SLR flooding (i.e., wave overwash, storm-drain backflow) such that it is more difficult to mitigate, and thus requires a separate set of highly innovative adaptation strategies to manage. To spur consideration of GWI in planning, data-intensive numerical modeling methods have been developed that produce locally specific visualizations of GWI, though the accessibility of such methods is limited by extensive data requirements. Conversely, the hydrostatic (or 'bathtub') modeling approach is widely used in adaptation planning owing to easily accessed visualizations (i.e., NOAA SLR Viewer), yet its capacity to simulate GWI has never been tested. Given the separate actions necessary to mitigate GWI relative to marine overwash, this is a significant gap. Here we compare a simple hydrostatic modeling method with a more deterministic, dynamic and robust 3D numerical modeling approach to explore the effectiveness of the hydrostatic method in simulating equilibrium aquifer effects of multi-decadal sea-level rise, and in turn GWI for Honolulu, Hawai'i. We find hydrostatic modeling in the Honolulu area and likely other settings may yield similar results to numerical modeling when referencing the local mean higher-high water tide datum (generally typical of flood studies). These findings have the potential to spur preliminary understanding of GWI impacts in municipalities that lack the required data to conduct rigorous groundwater-modeling investigations. We note that the methods explored here for Honolulu do not simulate dynamic coastal processes (i.e., coastal erosion, sediment accretion or changes in land cover) and thus are most appropriately applied to regions that host heavily armored shorelines behind which GWI can develop.

Hawaii↗