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Identifying management-relevant research priorities for responding to disease-associated amphibian declines

A research priority can be defined as a knowledge gap that, if resolved, identifies the optimal course of conservation action. We (a group of geographically distributed and multidisciplinary research scientists) used tools from nominal group theory and decision analysis to collaboratively identify and prioritize information needs within the context of disease-associated amphibian decline , in order to develop a strategy that would support US management agency needs. We developed iterated influence diagrams to create and assess a unified research strategy. We illustrated a transparent process for identifying specific knowledge gaps in amphibian disease ecology relevant to environmental management, and then constructed a research plan to address these uncertainties. The resulting priorities include a need to: (1) understand the drivers of the community-disease relationship, (2) determine the mechanisms by which exposure to contaminants influence disease outcomes, (3) identify elements of terrestrial and aquatic habitats that stabilize host-pathogen dynamics, (4) discuss how metapopulations may be managed to reduce the speed and intensity of disease outbreaks, and (5) define the relationship between habitat management and the environmental and host microbiomes. Along with identifying research priorities for disease management, we present the details of the process used to develop a consensus plan for addressing disease-related declines in amphibians on federally managed lands of the United States.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

Ultra‐high‐resolution mapping of biocrusts with Unmanned Aerial Systems

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) occur in drylands globally where they support ecosystem functioning by increasing soil stability, reducing dust emissions and modifying soil resource availability (e.g. water, nutrients). Determining biocrust condition and extent across landscapes continues to present considerable challenges to scientists and land managers. Biocrusts grow in patches, cover vast expanses of rugged terrain and are vulnerable to physical disturbance associated with ground‐based mapping techniques. As such, remote sensing offers promising opportunities to map and monitor biocrusts. While satellite‐based remote sensing has been used to detect biocrusts at relatively large spatial scales, few studies have used high‐resolution imagery from Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to map fine‐scale patterns of biocrusts. We collected sub‐centimeter, true color 3‐band imagery at 10 plots in sagebrush and pinyon‐juniper woodland communities in a semiarid ecosystem in the southwestern US and used object‐based image analysis (OBIA) to segment and classify the imagery into maps of light and dark biocrusts, bare soil, rock and various vegetation covers. We used field data to validate the classifications and assessed the spatial distribution and configuration of different classes using fragmentation metrics. Map accuracies ranged from 46 to 77% (average 65%) and were higher in pinyon‐juniper (average 70%) versus sagebrush (average 60%) plots. Biocrust classes showed generally high accuracies at both pinyon‐juniper plots (average dark crust = 70%; light crust = 80%) and sagebrush plots (average dark crust = 69%; light crust = 77%). Point cloud density, sun elevation and spectral confusion between vegetation cover explained some differences in accuracy across plots. Spatial analyses of classified maps showed that biocrust patches in pinyon‐juniper plots were generally larger, more aggregated and contiguous than in sagebrush plots. Pinyon‐juniper plots also had greater patch richness and a lower Shannon evenness index than sagebrush plots, suggesting greater soil cover heterogeneity in this plant community type.

Utah↗

Comparing the role of fuel breaks across southern California national forests

Fuel treatment of wildland vegetation is the primary approach advocated for mitigating fire risk at the wildland–urban interface (WUI), but little systematic research has been conducted to understand what role fuel treatments play in controlling large fires, which factors influence this role, or how the role of fuel treatments may vary over space and time. We assembled a spatial database of fuel breaks and fires from the last 30 years in four southern California national forests to better understand which factors are consistently important for fuel breaks in the control of large fires. We also explored which landscape features influence where fires and fuel breaks are most likely to intersect. The relative importance of significant factors explaining fuel break outcome and number of fire and fuel break intersections varied among the forests, which reflects high levels of regional landscape diversity. Nevertheless, several factors were consistently important across all the forests. In general, fuel breaks played an important role in controlling large fires only when they facilitated fire management, primarily by providing access for firefighting activities. Fire weather and fuel break maintenance were also consistently important. Models and maps predicting where fuel breaks and fires are most likely to intersect performed well in the regions where the models were developed, but these models did not extend well to other regions, reflecting how the environmental controls of fire regimes vary even within a single ecoregion. Nevertheless, similar mapping methods could be adopted in different landscapes to help with strategic location of fuel breaks. Strategic location of fuel breaks should also account for access points near communities, where fire protection is most important.

California↗

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting ( Calamospiza melanocorys ) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Colorado↗

Long-term vegetation change at a fully protected Sonoran Desert site

To investigate desert vegetation dynamics, I undertook an open—ended study of a site that offers a combination of multiple observations through time with continuous protection from domestic livestock and other human impacts. The site is MacDougal Crater in the Sierra del Pinacate Reserve, Sonora, Mexico. Three sources of data have been used: a series of exactly matched photographs, begun in 1907; detailed permanent—plot maps, dating from 1959—1960; and an age—distribution analysis of a 170—yr—old population of Carnegiea gigantea. The crater vegetation is dominated by the woody perennials Cercidium microphyllum, Encelia farinosa, Prosopis sp., and Larrea tridentata, and the columnar cactus Carnegiea gigantea. Various populations of Larrea tridentata declined 50—90%, and Cercidium declined 60%, during the first half of this century with little or no recruitment since. Carnegiea numbers increased fourfold over the same period. A 200—fold increase in Prosopis in the playa—like crater center occurred in the early 1970s. Elsewhere on the crater floor, Encelia density increased markedly during the same period from insignificant levels in the early 1960s. Age distribution analysis for the Carnegiea population reveals three major establishment peaks during the 1790 period. Recruitment and morality records from the three sources of data are compared with regional climate records. The high mortality for some of the species was probably the result of the prolonged drought during 1936—1964. Establishment surges for some appear related to periods of unusually heavy precipitation during certain seasons. Clearly, desert communities are highly responsive to changes in the climate regime under which they grow.

Sonora↗

Ecological indicators of water quality in the Spokane River, Idaho and Washington, 1998 and 1999

A water-quality investigation of the Spokane River was completed during summer low-flow conditions in 1998 and 1999 as part of the USGS NAWQA Program, in cooperation with the WDOE. (Abbreviations used in this report are defined on the last page.) Samples for analyses of water chemistry; bed sediment; aquatic communities (fish, macroinvertebrates, and algae); contaminants in tissue (fish and macroinvertebrates); and associated measures of habitat were collected at six sites downstream from Coeur d’Alene Lake between river miles 63 and 100. These data provided baseline information to evaluate the water-quality status of the Spokane River and can be used to determine the ecological risk to aquatic organisms from contaminants.

Washington;Idaho↗

Approaches for assessment of terrestrial vertebrate responses to contaminants: moving beyond individual organisms

Conclusions: A need for a broader range ofinformation on effects of contaminants on individuals exists among the 4 classes of terrestrial vertebrates, especially mammals, reptiles, and amphibians. Separation of contaminant effects from other effects and reduction of speculative extrapolation within and among species requires information that can be produced only by combined field and laboratory investigations that incorporate seasonal or annual cycles and important spatial and interaction conditions. Assessments of contaminant effects at the population level and higher are frequently dependent on extrapolations from a lower organizational level. Actual measurements of the effects of contaminants on populations or communities, possibly in conjunction with case studies that establish relations between effects on individuals and effects on populations, are needed to reduce the uncertainty associated with these extrapolations. Associated with these assessment levels is the need for acceptable definitions of what we mean when we refer to a 'meaningful population change' or an 'effect on communities or ecosystems.' At these higher levels of organization we are also confronted with the need for procedures useful for separating contaminant effects from effects caused by other environmental conditions. Although the bulk of literature surveyed was of the focused cause-and-effect type that is necessary for proving relations between contaminants and wildlife, community or ecosystem field assessments, as sometimes performed with reptiles and amphibians, might be a useful alternative for estimating the potential of a contaminant to cause environmental harm. Assumptions about the special usefulness of reptiles and amphibians as environmental indicators ought to be tested with comparisons to mammals and birds. Information on the effects of contaminants above the individual level is needed to generate accurate estimates of the potential consequences of anthropogenic pollution (e.g., ecological risk assessments). However, realized population, or higher, levels of effects should not be part of regulatory guidelines because the threshold of harm would be too high to be used as a catalyst for action. Measures of realized population or community effects could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of regulatory actions and assess chronic or difficult environmental problems. Some of these information needs can be satisfied with modest effort and expense, but much of the suggested work that incorporates great complexity or long duration is likely to be difficult to accomplish. Cooperation among investigators with different specialties and a willingness by government, academia, and corporate organizations to support the most challenging work will be necessary. Because we are unlikely to have the financial resources to evaluate more than a small number of contaminants for effects at the levels of population, community, or ecosystem, we might need to thoroughly study a few contaminants and then extend the findings to functionally similar contaminants. If sufficient cooperation and organizational support does not materialize, the pursuit of estimation methods will overshadow the collection of actual information on relations between contaminants and wildlife.

Book chapter↗

A synthesis of the characteristics and drivers of introduced fishes in prairie streams: Can we manage introduced harmful fishes in these dynamic environments?

Prairie streams of North America support native fishes that are adapted to the dynamic environment that characterizes these ecologically and economically important ecosystems. However, prairie streams have been altered by landscape changes that may affect the proportions of native and introduced species in fish communities. Herein, we investigate drivers of introduced fish in prairie streams, detail common introduced species and their traits and effects, investigate how climate change may alter the balance between native and introduced species, and summarize management options. Commonly introduced fishes are those with the ability to tolerate extreme variations in temperature, hydrology, and salinity and, as a result, most of the introduced fishes were native to other prairie streams within the Great Plains ecoregion. This suggests environmental extremes may act as a filter for establishment or that short-distance translocations are more common than introductions from other ecoregions. The mechanisms or extent to which introduced species affect native fishes is often assumed or understudied. Climate change may amplify environmental disturbances in ways that may favor native or introduced fishes depending on species traits and biotic interactions. Actions such as habitat modifications or disturbances may favor introduced fishes over native fishes. Research to understand the relative roles of trait preadaptation and spatial proximity of source populations in introduced species establishment could benefit future management. Moreover, patterns observed in other ecosystems may not be transferrable to prairie streams, highlighting the need to understand the context dependency of effects of introduced species.

North American Great Plains↗

Ranking river basins for stream temperature research and monitoring in the contiguous United States

There is a need to prioritize research and data collection in river basins by integrating information from environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic datasets to maintain acceptable water quality for human uses and ecosystem health. Multiple anthropogenic and natural stressors are responsible for driving changes in stream temperatures that can alter ecosystems and degrade water quality. These stressors are variable spatially and temporally, which can be challenging for prioritizing monitoring and research. In this study, an evaluation of variables related to stream temperature was performed for 163 candidate basins of the contiguous United States to highlight potential focal areas. Thirty variables were combined in six components: anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing, climate change, ecological sensitivity, socioeconomic sensitivity, and data availability. The components were incorporated into three themes: vulnerability of streams to thermal change, vulnerability of ecosystems, and vulnerability of communities. By evaluating each theme separately, patterns of vulnerability and potential resiliency were identified as well as consistency in ranks within the themes. For example, results of the national scale ranking indicated the Southern California Coastal basin (within California-Nevada region) was the highest-ranking priority in vulnerability of streams to thermal change and vulnerability of ecosystems. The analysis also identified vulnerable basins with gaps in monitoring. For example, the Missouri-Oahe basin (within the Northern High Plains region) was the highest-ranking priority for vulnerable communities with limitations in data availability. The ranking approach provides insight into basins that are resilient and are ideal candidates for monitoring and research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

The influence of forest management on headwater stream amphibians at multiple spatial scales

Understanding how habitat structure at multiple spatial scales influences vertebrates can facilitate development of effective conservation strategies, but until recently most studies have focused on habitat relationships only at fine or intermediate scales. In particular, patterns of amphibian occurrence across broad spatial scales are not well studied, despite recent concerns over regional and global declines. We examined habitat relationships of larval and neotenic Pacific giant salamanders (Dicamptodon tenebrosus), larval and adult Pacific tailed frogs (Ascaphus truei) (hereafter “tailed frogs”), and torrent salamanders (Rhyacotriton spp.) at three spatial scales (2-m sample unit, intermediate, and drainage). In 1998 and 1999, we captured 1568 amphibians in 702 sample units in 16 randomly chosen drainages in the Oregon Coast Range. We examined species–habitat associations at each spatial scale using an information-theoretic approach of analysis to rank sets of logistic regression models developed a priori. At the 2-m sample unit scale, all groups were negatively associated with proportion of small substrate and positively associated with stream width or elevation. At the intermediate scale, Pacific giant salamanders, adult tailed frogs, and torrent salamanders were positively associated with presence of a 46-m band of forested habitat on each side of the stream, and larval tailed frogs were positively associated with presence of forest >105 years old. Aspect was important for Pacific giant salamanders and larval tailed frogs at the intermediate scale. At the drainage scale, all groups except torrent salamanders were positively associated with proportion of stream length having forested bands >46 m in width, but further analysis suggests narrower bands may provide adequate protection for some groups. Population- and community-level responses at broad spatial scales may be reflected in species-level responses at fine spatial scales, and our results suggest that geophysical and ecological characteristics, as well as measures of instream habitat, can be used together to prioritize conservation emphasis areas for stream amphibians in managed landscapes.

Ecological Applications↗

A snapshot evaluation of stream environmental quality in the Little Conestoga Creek basin, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

Many Lancaster County residents are interested in stream monitoring and habitat restoration to maintain or improve stream water quality and to keep contaminants from reaching ground water used to supply drinking water. To promote resident involvement and environmental stewardship, the Alliance for the Chesapeake Bay (ACB) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) designed this “snapshot” study of water quality and aquatic-insect communities in the Little Conestoga Creek Basin. Citizen-based restoration programs can improve water quality at a local level; such efforts will ultimately improve the ecological integrity of the Lower Susquehanna River and the Chesapeake Bay. The Little Conestoga Creek Basin was studied for several reasons. It was felt the project should benefit Lancaster County residents because funding was provided by Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection funds generated in Lancaster County. The small drainage area size, 65.5 mi 2 (square miles), allowed resident involvement in the necessary training and the snapshot sampling plan. Also, a previous study within south-central Pennsylvania reported the highest nutrient yields entering the Susquehanna River are contributed by the Conestoga River and its tributary subbasins, and the Basin’s location within the Conestoga River watershed made it a potential contributor of high nutrient loads. However, few data had been collected in this Basin to characterize the water quality and aquatic-insect populations. Ongoing studies by a “stream team” from Lancaster County Academy and by students and staff at Millersville University did not fully document the level of stream impairment throughout the Basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Biodiversity connections—‘ties that bind’

Connectivity is a foundational concept in ecology and conservation and was the organising theme for the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Southeastern Fishes Council, a professional organisation dedicated to the study and conservation of freshwater fishes native to the southeast region of the United States (US). We introduce a Special Contribution of six papers selected from presentations at that meeting that illustrate perspectives on connections created by fish migration and dispersal, evolved life histories and habitat affinities and interspecific facilitation. Although focused on streams of the southeast US, each of these topics is broadly relevant to freshwater fish conservation, particularly with respect to causes and consequences of migratory fish depletion, population fragmentation and species declines. Many other connections relevant to the ecology and conservation of freshwater fishes remain relatively unexplored but could substantively advance conservation. We highlight the potential that species evolutionary histories, that is connections through time, reconstructed using species distributions and phylogenies may improve predictions of species responses to environmental change. Identifying species interdependencies, including undiscovered interactions that support survival or reproduction, could provide insights into how species losses may cascade as aquatic communities unravel. Finally, efforts to elucidate diverse connections between people and freshwater biodiversity, particularly where fisheries are historic and streams mostly go unnoticed, may prove essential to building public support for conservation measures. A research agenda anchored on ‘biodiversity connections’ has the potential to advance ecological understanding and public engagement, elements essential to conserving freshwater fishes.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

Building adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change

Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development, and climate change and other stressors are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient in the face of such disturbances. We sought to identify potential ways in which local conservation interests in the Lowcountry of South Carolina (USA) could participate in a social process of adaptation planning, and how that process might ultimately be broadened to engage a more diverse set of partners. We engaged participants through a combination of informal meetings, workshops, and other collaborative interactions to explore how the conservation community perceives and pursues its various missions, and how that community might confront the threats and opportunities in its future. Coproduction of knowledge and meaning were facilitated by collaborative scenario planning and strategic planning evaluation, which illuminated how the conservation community is integral to the broader governance of the region and highlighted how responses to forces of change are mediated through local culture, economics, and politics. We suggest an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objectives of both social and ecological systems might be prioritized in tandem, rather than narrowly focusing on environmental protection without consideration of the social landscape. Ultimately, adaptive capacity depends on the ability to act collectively, and social capital, trust, and organization greatly influence the capacity to act. Thus, we conclude that the presence of strong social networks, coordination and deliberation among diverse stakeholders, mechanisms for experiential feedback, and emphasis on social learning are key elements needed to build adaptive capacity. Central to the evolving perspective of governance of the commons is recognition that social and ecological systems are coupled; the issues and problems of one cannot be addressed without considering the consequences for the other. Moreover, a dominant theme emerging from our research and that of other scholars is the importance of culture and place attachment, which generates social cohesion and facilitates problem solving. These ideas have important implications for when, where, and how stakeholders are engaged to address the rapid changes being experienced by social-ecological systems.

South Carolina↗

An overview and participatory framework for choosing spatial boundaries in social–ecological systems modeling

A common challenge when modeling social–ecological systems (SESs) is defining the spatial extent of the system. Boundaries that do not adequately capture both social and ecological processes and their interactions can lead to mischaracterization of the system, while expanding boundaries too widely can impact model complexity and required resources. Socially, boundaries can invoke and influence identity, culture, power, and sense of place. Boundary decisions benefit from flexible, iterative approaches and the expertise of local communities. Here, we use a structured database search supplemented with citation searching to identify and review the literature that addresses choosing or defining spatial boundaries in SESs mapping or modeling and, when applicable, how participatory methods were used in the research process. In a review of the resulting 79 studies, we discovered that pre-existing social or ecological boundaries were used most frequently (36 and 18 publications, respectively). Twenty-one publications combined social and ecological boundaries or data to create custom boundaries, and four studies used an alternative approach to conventional boundaries. Informed by the literature review, we present a general framework for defining boundaries at the outset of SES research. We then connect the framework to a specific case study based on a collaborative project with Tribal, university, and federal scientists to develop a social–ecological climate adaptation plan. We present guiding questions alongside candidate boundaries for our study system and explore the tradeoffs of these boundary options, which can function as a useful template for other social–ecological research collaborations.

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information↗

Conservation and management of fisheries and aquatic communities in Great Lakes connecting channels

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes are linked by a unique series of riverine and lacustrine waters known as the Great Lakes connecting channels that are as integral to the basin's ecology and economies as the lakes themselves. The St. Marys River (SMR) is the northernmost channel and flows from Lake Superior to Lake Huron. Waters from the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron) empty from Lake Huron via the St. Clair–Detroit River system (SCDRS, also known as the Huron–Erie Corridor) into Lake Erie. The SCDRS is composed of the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, and the Detroit River. The Niagara River (NR) serves as the outflow from Lake Erie into Lake Ontario. The NR above Niagara Falls is bisected by Grand Island and contains several other islands and man-made embayments whereas the NR below the falls is more linear. The outflow from Lake Ontario, representing the natural outlet of all the Great Lakes, is the St. Lawrence River (SLR) which empties into the Gulf of St. Lawrence in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.

Great Lakes↗

Bison grazing ecology at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge, Colorado

The Rocky Mountain Arsenal (RMA) National Wildlife Refuge reintroduced bison to a small pasture in 2007. Refuge managers needed information on the effects of bison grazing on vegetation communities in the bison pasture as well as information on how bison might affect other management priorities at RMA. In particular, RMA managers were interested in bison grazing effects on vegetation productivity, amount of vegetation utilization by bison, and habitat selection by bison to inform RMA herd managers and for potential expansion of bison range on the refuge. In 2007, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) designed a study to investigate bison grazing effects through measurement of vegetation in the 600-hectare enclosure where the bison are currently pastured. This research was a collaborative effort between USGS and RMA refuge staff and had active field components in 2007 and 2010. We found that the effects and intensity of bison grazing on vegetation in the RMA bison pasture is linked to prairie dog presence. Where both species were present, they were removing a significant amount of biomass compared to areas where only bison were present. Also, prairie dogs appeared to enhance the greater production of native forbs, but we were not able to identify the mechanism for this increased production. We were not able, however, to generate an accurate vegetation map for the bison pasture, and this limited our ability to achieve the level of statistical precision necessary to identify grazing impacts and habitat selection of bison.

Colorado↗

Kelp forest monitoring at Naval Base Ventura County, San Nicolas Island, California: Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, fifth annual report

Introduction Kelp forests and rocky reefs are among the most recognized marine ecosystems and provide the primary habitat for several species of fishes, invertebrates, and algal assemblages (Stephens and others, 2006). In addition, kelp forests have been shown to be important carbon dioxide sinks (Wilmers and others, 2012) and are an important source of nearshore marine primary production (Duggins and others, 1989). These highly dynamic ecosystems are extremely variable, and both top-down and bottom-up ecological controls drive this rich trophic environment. Giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) forests and the species that inhabit these ecosystems are influenced by several environmental conditions, such as wave exposure, water temperature, water clarity, bottom depth and composition, species composition, and the density of kelp and other algal assemblages (Schiel and Foster, 2015). However, in addition to “normal” variability, kelp forests can undergo extreme regime shifts from kelp canopy forested areas to barrens characterized by high densities of urchins and encrusting coralline algae (Harrold and Reed, 1985). San Nicolas Island (SNI), outermost of the California Channel Islands, is home to a diverse group of terrestrial and marine organisms and includes kelp bed and rocky reef habitats ( fig. 1 ). The SNI kelp forests not only provide food and shelter for fishes and invertebrates within the habitat, but also they support higher trophic level consumers such as marine birds and several marine mammal species including the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis) , a major predator on sea urchins and other marine invertebrates. Owing to concern about the vulnerability of the California population, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) translocated 140 southern sea otters from the central California coast to SNI between 1987 and 1990. Although only approximately 14 translocated otters are thought to have remained at SNI (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012), their population at the island has increased and is currently greater than 120 individuals (Hatfield and others, 2019). Sea otters are a natural part of the kelp forest ecosystem, but their presence has implications for community dynamics as they repopulate a region from which they were extirpated in the 19th century. At SNI, sea otters have been concentrated mostly around the west end of the island, with some use of the south side and very little, but expanding, use of the northeast side. An ecosystem shift from urchin dominated to kelp dominated, that occurred at a site at the west end of the island in the early 2000s, though initiated by sea urchin disease, was likely facilitated to some degree by sea otter foraging (Kenner and Tinker, 2018). These ecosystems also are the target of many fisheries, including urchin and lobster. Urchin fisheries, which target the larger red sea urchin, may release the smaller but more mobile purple sea urchin from competitive control (Dayton and others, 1998). Lobster fisheries may release purple sea urchins from predatory control (Lafferty, 2004). Owing to the distance from the mainland, however, SNI kelp forests and reefs have been somewhat protected from the degree of harvest and other anthropogenic impacts experienced by the southern California mainland. Invasive species are another issue, and there are a few invasive subtidal macroalgae of concern in southern California waters. Although the brown alga Sargassum muticum has been established at the island for decades, S. horneri has only recently been seen at SNI and, so far, the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida and the green alga Caulerpa taxifolia have not been observed there. Sargassum horneri , in particular, has demonstrated a capability to outcompete native kelps at some of the other Channel Islands but it is unclear what indirect effects it may have on community structure (Marks and others, 2015). Because the surrounding kelp forests fall within the management boundary of the SNI Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP; U.S. Navy, 2015), USGS works with the Navy to provide surveys of this ecologically important ecosystem that inform natural resource managers of trends in the population abundance of particular species. In addition, long-term surveys allow for an understanding of potential changes in species diversity and community composition as a result of trophic or other interactions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented a kelp forest monitoring program for the U.S. Navy at San Nicolas Island in 2014, building on sites and methods established by USFWS scientists in 1980 ( appendix 1 ). This report focuses on data collected during sampling expeditions to these sites in fall 2018 (October 2–5) and spring 2019 (April 3–6). Together they will be herein referred to as year 5 because, although the trips were made in different calendar years, they were approximately 6 months apart and were conducted under the fifth year of this contract. The previous sampling year (fall 2017 and spring 2018) is referred to as year 4. The year 5 data are compared with data collected during eight trips from fall 2014 through spring 2018. Differences in counts between these expeditions can result from seasonal factors, stochastic variation, or sampling error, but temporal comparison can reveal population trends. Where appropriate, long-term data collected during the 33 years prior to the implementation of these slightly revised protocols will be presented in order to lend some context to the observations reported here. Genus and species names used in this report are those currently recognized as valid in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS.gov). Upon first use, the name recognized as valid by the World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS; marinespecies.org) is shown in brackets if different. The exception is Sargassum horneri which does not show up in any discernable form in ITIS.gov.

California↗

South China Sea

The South China Sea is poorly understood in terms of its marine biota, ecology and the human impacts upon it. What is known is most often contained in reports and workshop and conference documents that are not available to the wider scientific community. The South China Sea has an area of some 3.3 million km 2 and depths range from the shallowest coastal fringe to 5377 m in the Manila Trench. It is also studded with numerous islets, atolls and reefs many of which are just awash at low tide. It is largely confined within the Tropic of Cancer and, therefore, experiences a monsoonal climate being influenced by the Southwest Monsoon in summer and the Northeast Monsoon in winter. The South China Sea is a marginal sea and, therefore, largely surrounded by land. Countries that have a major influence on and claims to the sea include China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, although Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan have some too. The coastal fringes of the South China Sea are home to about 270 million people that have had some of the fastest developing and most vibrant economies on the globe. Consequently, anthropogenic impacts, such as over-exploitation of resources and pollution, are anticipated to be huge although, in reality, relatively little is known about them. The Indo-West Pacific biogeographic province, at the centre of which the South China Sea lies, is probably the world's most diverse shallow-water marine area. Of the three major nearshore habitat types, i.e., coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses, 45 mangrove species out of a global of 51, most of the currently recognised 70 coral genera and 20 of 50 known seagrass species have been recorded from the South China Sea. The island groups of the South China Sea are all disputed and sovereignty is claimed over them by a number of countries. Conflicts have in recent decades arisen over them because of perceived national rights. It is perhaps because of this that so little research has been undertaken on the South China Sea. What data are available, however, and if Hong Kong is used , as it is herein, as an indicator of what the perturbations of other regional cities upon the South China Sea are like, then it is impacted grossly and an ecological disaster has probably already, but unknowingly, happened.

Marine Pollution Bulletin↗