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3-D simulations of M9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key parameters and uncertainty

Geologic and historical records indicate that the Cascadia subduction zone is capable of generating large, megathrust earthquakes up to magnitude 9. The last great Cascadia earthquake occurred in 1700, and thus there is no direct measure on the intensity of ground shaking or specific rupture parameters from seismic recordings. We use 3-D numerical simulations to generate broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for 50 M9 rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust. Slip consists of multiple high-stress drop subevents (~M8) with short rise times on the deeper portion of the fault, superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. We find a >4x variation in the intensity of ground shaking depending upon several key parameters, including the down-dip limit of rupture, the slip distribution and location of strong-motion-generating subevents, and the hypocenter location. We find that extending the down-dip limit of rupture to the top of the non-volcanic tremor zone results in a ~2-3x increase in peak ground acceleration for the inland city of Seattle, Washington, compared to a completely offshore rupture. However, our simulations show that allowing the rupture to extend to the up-dip limit of tremor (i.e., the deepest rupture extent in the National Seismic Hazard Maps), even when tapering the slip to zero at the down-dip edge, results in multiple areas of coseismic coastal uplift. This is inconsistent with coastal geologic evidence (e.g., buried soils, submerged forests), which suggests predominantly coastal subsidence for the 1700 earthquake and previous events. Defining the down-dip limit of rupture as the 1 cm/yr locking contour (i.e., mostly offshore) results in primarily coseismic subsidence at coastal sites. We also find that the presence of deep subevents can produce along-strike variations in subsidence and ground shaking along the coast. Our results demonstrate the wide range of possible ground motions from an M9 megathrust earthquake in Cascadia, and the potential to further constrain key rupture parameters using geologic and geophysical observations, ultimately improving our estimation of seismic hazard associated with the Cascadia megathrust.

Conference Paper↗

Safety and survival in an earthquake

Many earth scientists in this country and abroad are focusing their studies on the search for means of predicting impending earthquakes, but, as yet, an accurate prediction of the time and place of such an event cannot be made. From past experience, however, one can assume that earthquakes will continue to harass mankind and that they will occur most frequently in the areas where they have been relatively common in the past. In the United States, earthquakes can be expected to occur most frequently in the western states, particularly in Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. The danger, however, is not confined to any one part of the country; major earthquakes have occurred at widely scattered locations.

General Information Product↗

Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic model for earthquake hazards evaluation

The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust earthquake, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate earthquakes from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large earthquakes are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual earthquake sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity models developed using local earthquake tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation models based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs model anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the modeling process. Significant results from the velocity models include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity models. This buttress occurs under the North Cascades region of Washington and under southern Vancouver Island. We find that regional faults zones such as the Devils Mt. and Darrington zones follow the margin of this buttress and the Olympic-Wallowa lineament forms its southern boundary east of the Puget Lowland. Thick, high-velocity, lower-crustal rocks are interpreted to be a mafic/ultramafic wedge occuring just above the subduction thrust. This mafic wedge appears to be jointly deformed with the arch, suggesting strong coupling between the subducting plate and upper plate crust in the Puget Sound region at depths >30 km. Such tectonic coupling is possible if brittle-ductile transition temperatures for mafic/ultramafic rocks on both sides of the thrust are assumed. The deformation models show that dominant north-south compression in the coast ranges of Washington and Oregon is controlled by a highly mafic crust and low heat flow, allowing efficient transmission of margin-parallel shear from Pacific plate interaction with North America. Complex stress patterns which curve around the Puget Sound region require a concentration of northwest-directed shear in the North Cascades of Washington. The preferred model shows that greatest horizontal shortening occurs across the Devils Mt. fault zone and the east end of the Seattle fault.

Open-File Report↗

Hazard information management during the autumn 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens volcano, Washington

The 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens quickly caught the attention of government agencies as well as the international news media and the public. Immediate concerns focused on a repeat of the catastrophic landslide and blast event of May 18, 1980, which remains a vivid memory for many individuals. Within several days of the onset of accelerating seismicity, media inquiries increased exponentially. Personnel at the U.S. Geological Survey, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and the Gifford Pinchot National Forest soon handled hundreds of press inquiries and held several press briefings per day. About one week into the event, a Joint Information Center was established to help maintain a consistent hazard message and to provide a centralized information source about volcanic activity, hazards, area closures, and media briefings. Scientists, public-affairs specialists, and personnel from emergency-management, health, public-safety, and land-management agencies answered phones, helped in press briefings and interviews, and managed media access to colleagues working on science and safety issues. For scientists, in addition to managing the cycle of daily fieldwork, challenges included (1) balancing accurate interpretations of data under crisis conditions with the need to share information quickly, (2) articulating uncertainties for a variety of volcanic scenarios, (3) minimizing scientific jargon, and (4) frequently updating and effectively distributing talking points. Success of hazard information management during a volcanic crisis depends largely on scientists’ clarity of communication and thorough preplanning among interagency partners. All parties must commit to after-action evaluation and improvement of communication plans, incorporating lessons learned during each event.

Washington↗

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of US..Geological Survey activities, January 2018 through December 2018

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize populations and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns. We used Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT)-tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead have been planted in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated to be less than one percent of spawners in most years (pers comm. Thomas Buehrens, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife). Our repeated headwater sampling of consistent sites in the Wind River subbasin has also allowed us to track relative abundance of Brook Trout, a non-native species to the Wind River. Our work is contributing to understanding of Steelhead population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, where our PTISs are helping to quantify adult response. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/ViewProgramStrategySummary/1). Specifically this work addresses the sub-strategies of: 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and to Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. Our headwaters parr PIT tagging, WDFW parr, smolt, and adult tagging and our instream PTISs are providing data on movements and life histories of parr, smolt, and adult Steelhead. During summer 2018, we PIT-tagged 1,592 age-0 and age-1 Steelhead parr in headwater areas of the Wind River subbasin to characterize population traits and investigate life-history diversity, including growth and pre-smolt downstream movement. Repeat headwater sampling and smolt trap operations provide opportunities for recapture, and instream PTISs and Columbia River infrastructure provide opportunity for detection of PIT-tagged fish. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead parr, smolts, and adults. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Substantial numbers of parr make downstream movements as age-1 fish. We have estimated that from 15 to 33 percent of parr tagged as age-0 fish make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing. We have estimated that from 1 to 27 percent of parr tagged as age-1 fish make downstream migrations during fall. These findings raise many questions about parr rearing strategies, habitat use, and success of these migrants and suggest a need for broader monitoring of juvenile Steelhead in some river systems to fully document juvenile production. Long-term monitoring of PIT-tagged fish is providing information on contribution of various life-history strategies to smolt production and adult returns. Movements of PIT-tagged adult Steelhead were recorded at instream PTISs. These data have allowed assessment of adult returns to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Detection efficiency of adult PIT-tagged Steelhead at our primary adult-monitoring PTIS in Trout Creek has been greater than 92 percent during 6 of the past 7 years. This is providing excellent data to estimate adult returns to this watershed. Determination of adult use of tributary watersheds is providing data to help evaluate the efficacy of the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek. Hemlock Dam, located at rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek, was removed in summer 2009. The dam contributed to hydrologic impairment of Trout Creek and had potential negative effects on Steelhead. The improvements made to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU at rkm 28.3; better site characteristics and grid power) during 2016 and 2017, and a planned new site in the Mine Reach of the upper Wind River, will allow estimates of subbasin adult escapement like those in Trout Creek. During 2018, we also completed planning and permitting with U.S. Forest Service for a new PTIS site at rkm 36 of the Wind River (the Mine Reach, mentioned above). This site will replace two sites (one in Paradise Creek and one at rkm 41 of the Wind River), which had operational challenges due to lack of adequate solar power and winter difficulties. The new Mine Reach PTIS site at rkm 36, will have better solar exposure, fewer winter operations difficulties, and provide opportunity to detect fish from juvenile sampling sites that were downstream of the previous two PTISs. The more consistent operation of the new Mine Reach PTIS site will increase our ability to estimate migrant abundance as all the juveniles tagged upstream of it will be subject to the same potential detection history, instead of three different potential detection histories as before. Additionally, with the new Mine Reach PTIS site lower in the watershed, it will subject more PIT-tagged adult Steelhead to detection and provide ability to generate a nonbiased adult-detection efficiency estimate for the WRU PTIS at rkm 28.3 of the Wind River. This will provide the opportunity to estimate yearly adult Steelhead abundance to the upper Wind watershed area. Permitting is complete and some supplies have been purchased to build and install this new site in 2019. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has allowed investigation into juvenile Steelhead growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer are similar across the subbasin, but lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly growth for parr tagged at age-0 is similar across the subbasin. Yearly growth for parr tagged at age-1 is lowest in Martha Creek, but similar elsewhere. Non-native Brook Trout are present in portions of the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling has allowed us to index their prevalence. Percentage of catch that is Brook Trout at each of four sample sites in Trout Creek have declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2018. There was a pattern of decline in percent of catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2016, though a slight upward trend during 2017 and 2018 has been evident. Evaluating and planning restoration efforts are of interest to many managers and agencies to ensure efficient use of resources. The evaluation of various life-histories of Steelhead within the Wind River subbasin will provide information to better track populations, and to direct habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead parr raises many questions regarding estimating juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead parr are increasingly allowing us to investigate such questions. Increasingly detailed Viable Salmonid Population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTISs networks like those in the Wind River subbasin, provide data to inform policy and management, as life-history strategies and production bottlenecks are identified and understood.

Washington↗

Salmon habitat assessment for conservation planning in the lower White Salmon River, Washington

In 2011, Condit Dam was removed from the White Salmon River, Washington. Since dam removal, there has been interest among scientists (State and Federal), Tribes, non-profit organizations, and the general public in assessing Pacific salmon habitat and use in the White Salmon River for conservation planning and potential fishery management actions. The study area extended from the lower 6 miles of the White Salmon River to the confluence with the Columbia River, including the former reservoir area. The Mid-Columbia Fisheries Enhancement Group received a grant to initiate efforts to plan for salmon habitat protection in the lower 6 river miles of the White Salmon River. As part of efforts by the Mid-Columbia Fisheries Enhancement Group to conduct conservation planning, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used current and historical habitat information to assist in the planning process. The USGS compiled existing georeferenced habitat data into a Geographic Information System to identify areas of high quality habitat for salmon, potential areas for restoration/improvement, and areas that could be threatened. The primary sources of georeferenced data for this project include a lidar flight contracted by PacifiCorp, bathymetry from USGS, and fall Chinook salmon redd surveys from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Redd observations provided support that the study area is a migratory corridor for salmon and steelhead and that the lowest 2–3 miles had the highest concentration of documented fall Chinook salmon redds. The study area has potential for restoration/conservation areas to improve/conserve salmon habitat.

Washington↗

Mining claim activity on federal land in the contiguous United States, 1976 through 2004

Statistical compilations of mining claim activity on Federal Land derived from the Bureau of Land Management's LR2000 database have been published by the U.S Geological Survey. This report updates Causey (2005) by adding statistics for an additional year of mining claim records, incorporating any corrections in older data done by BLM, adding a Public Land Survey spatial database for South Dakota, and improving correlation of the statistics to spatial databases in Washington and Nevada. The statistics compiled from the LR2000 database are counts of number of active mining claims in a section each year from 1976 to 2004 for all states within the contiguous United States. Claims are broken down by lode and placer types and a dataset is provided summarizing all claims including millsite and tunnel-site claims. One table presents data by case type, case status, and number of claims in a section. This report includes a spatial database for each state in which mining claims were recorded. A field is present in both datasets that allows the statistical data to be joined to the spatial databases so that spatial displays and analysis can be done using appropriate software. The data show how mining claim activity has changed in intensity, space, and time. Variations can be examined on a state, as well as a national level. The data are tied to a section of land, approximately 640 acres, which allows it to be used at regional, as well as local scale. It is restricted in that it only encompasses Federal land.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, ↗

Transport pathways in the lower reaches of Hood Canal

In 2003, studies revealed that the waters in the lower reaches of Hood Canal in Washington State had very low dissolved-oxygen concentrations, low enough to cause some fish kills between June and October of that year. In order to determine the transport patterns and the persistence of the low oxygen level in this portion of the canal, the U. S. Geological Survey deployed two instrumented platforms on the seabed near the head of the canal that measured currents over the whole water column, water level, near-bed temperature, salinity and oxygen for 2 months in the fall of 2004. Tidal currents, the dominant current component in the canal, flowed primarily along the canal axis and had speeds of 15-20 cm/s. There was also a persistent internal seiche that caused currents to flow along the canal axis with speeds of a few cm/s. The seiche, which had a period of a few days, caused currents in the surface layer to flow in an opposite direction to currents in water depths deeper than 15 m. A pool of warmer, saltier and more oxygenated water moved past the measurement sites toward the head of the canal with a speed of 1 cm/s. CTD measurements taken near the 2 measurement sites during the deployment indicated that this more oxygenated layer of water extended from the bed to the thermocline. Oxygen data from the tripods showed that this water remained in the region until at least the end of October 2004, when the tripods were recovered.

Washington↗

Preliminary report on the petrography and geochemistry of basalt from the Pribilof Islands and vicinity, southern Bering Sea

Alkali basalt from the Pribilof Islands has been described by several workers (Washington and Keyes, 1930; Barth, 1956; Cox and others, 1966; and Kay, 1977). This report complements the previous reports by providing new petrographic and geochemical data for samples from St. Paul and St. George Islands and from two dredge hauls near St. George Island (Fig. 1). The geologic setting of the Pribilof Islands region is given by Barth (1956), Hopkins and Einarsson (1965), Cox and others (1966), Hopkins and others (1969), Marlow and others (1976), and Hopkins and Silberman (1978). Quaternary basalt (Table 1) (Cox and others, 1966; Hopkins, 1976; Simpson and others, 1979) is extruded onto the structurally high Pribilof Ridge (Marlow and others, 1976) which consists of rocks as old as late Jurassic (Vallier and others, 1979). Barth (1956) recognized the structural implication of alkalic volcanism in back-arc environments. We plan to interpret alkalic volcanism in the Pribilof Islands within the context of recent tectonic and petrologic findings in the southern Bering Sea. Funds for this project were provided jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Land Management. Funds from the Bureau of Land Management were managed by the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program (OCSEAP) office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Alaska↗

Assessment of arsenic concentrations in domestic well water, by town, in Maine 2005-09

Prior studies have established that approximately 10 percent of domestic wells in Maine have arsenic levels greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant limit (10 micrograms per liter (ug/L)). Of even greater concern are multiple discoveries of wells with very high arsenic levels (> 500 ug/L) in several areas of the State. A study was initiated to assist the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ME-CDC) in developing a better understanding of the statewide spatial occurrence of wells with elevated arsenic levels at the individual town level, identify areas of the State that should be targeted for increased efforts to promote well-water testing, and generate data for potential use in predicting areas of the State likely to have very high levels of arsenic. The State's Health and Environmental and Testing Laboratory (HETL) annually analyzes samples from thousands of domestic wells for arsenic. Results of arsenic analyses of domestic well water submitted to the HETL from 2005 to 2009 were screened and organized, by town, in order to summarize the results for all towns with samples submitted to the HETL. In order to preserve the privacy of well owners, the screening and organization of samples was conducted in the offices of the ME-CDC, following applicable Maine and United States laws, rules, and privacy policies. After screening, the database contained samples from 531 towns in Maine and from 11,111 individual wells. Of those towns, 385 had samples from 5 or more individual wells, 174 towns had samples from 20 or more individual wells, and 49 towns had samples from 60 or more wells. These samples, because they were submitted by homeowners and were not part of a random sample, may not be representative of all wells in a given area. The minimum, maximum, and median arsenic values for the towns with five or more samples were calculated, and the maximum and median values were mapped for the State. The percentages of samples exceeding 10, 50, 100, and 500 ug/L were calculated for the 174 towns with 20 or more sampled wells, and statewide maps were prepared for each of these categories. More than 25 percent of the sampled wells in 44 towns exceeded 10 ug/L. Many fewer towns had wells with samples that exceeded the 50, 100, or 500 ug/L categories. For 19 towns, more than 10 percent of the sampled wells had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 50 ug/L, and in 45 towns, 1 percent or more exceeded 100 ug/L. Of these, Surry in Hancock County had 120 wells tested, and 23 percent of those wells had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 100 ug/L, which is a much higher rate than for other towns. In only four towns (Danforth in Washington County, Surry and Blue Hill in Hancock County, and Woolwich in Sagadahoc County), 1 percent or more of the sampled wells had arsenic concentrations greater than 500 ug/L during 2005-09. The distribution of high arsenic concentrations in wells follows some geographic patterns, which are generally geologically controlled. There are clusters or belts of towns with high arsenic concentrations (> 50 ug/L), such as in southern coastal areas, the Kennebec County area, and towns along the central coastal part of Maine. In contrast, there are areas of the State with low arsenic concentrations, such as the northernmost towns, as well as towns in the western and west-central areas. There appear to be three distinct large-scale areas of high concentrations of arsenic in groundwater-one in southern coastal areas, one in central Kennebec County, and one in the town of Ellsworth (Hancock County) and the surrounding areas. In addition, several smaller clusters of isolated high concentrations of arsenic in groundwater exist. Earlier testing has identified other clusters of very high arsenic concentrations in groundwater in the towns of Northport, Buxton/Hollis, and Waldoboro, but those samples were collected before 2005 and did not factor in this analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Earthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Crims Island-Restoration and monitoring of juvenile salmon rearing habitat in the Columbia River Estuary, Oregon, 2004-10

Under the 2004 Biological Opinion for operation of the Federal Columbia River Power System released by the National Marine Fisheries Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) were directed to restore more than 4,047 hectares (10,000 acres) of tidal marsh in the Columbia River estuary by 2010. Restoration of Crims Island near Longview, Washington, restored 38.1 hectares of marsh and swamp in the tidal freshwater portion of the lower Columbia River. The goal of the restoration was to improve habitat for juveniles of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmon stocks and ESA-listed Columbian white-tailed deer. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitored and evaluated the fisheries and aquatic resources at Crims Island in 2004 prior to restoration (pre-restoration), which began in August 2004, and then post-restoration from 2006 to 2009. This report summarizes pre- and post-restoration monitoring data used by the USGS to evaluate project success. We evaluated project success by examining the interaction between juvenile salmon and a suite of broader ecological measures including sediments, plants, and invertebrates and their response to large-scale habitat alteration. The restoration action at Crims Island from August 2004 to September 2005 was to excavate a 0.6-meter layer of soil and dig channels in the interior of the island to remove reed canary grass and increase habitat area and tidal exchange. The excavation created 34.4 hectares of tidal emergent marsh where none previously existed and 3.7 hectares of intertidal and subtidal channels. Cattle that had grazed the island for more than 50 years were relocated. Soil excavated from the site was deposited in upland areas next to the tidal marsh to establish an upland forest. Excavation deepened and widened an existing T-shaped channel to increase tidal flow to the interior of the island. The western arm of the existing 'T-channel' was extended westward and connected to Bradbury Slough to create a second outlet to the main river. New intertidal channels were constructed from the existing 'T-channel' and tidal mudflats became inundated at high tide to increase rearing habitat for juvenile salmonids. The restoration action resulted in a 95-percent increase in available juvenile salmon rearing habitat. We collected juvenile salmon and other fishes at Crims Island and a nearby reference site using beach seines and fyke nets annually from March through August during all years. Benthic invertebrates were collected with sediment corers and drift invertebrates were collected with neuston nets. Juvenile salmon stomach contents were sampled using lavage. Vegetation and sediments characteristics were surveyed and we conducted a topographic/bathymetric survey using a RTK (real time kinematic) GPS (global positioning system). The fish assemblage at Crims Island, composed primarily of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), non-native banded killifish (Fundulus diaphanus), peamouth chub (Mylocheilus caurinus), subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) (hereinafter referred to as subyearlings), and small numbers of juvenile chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), did not differ appreciably pre- and post-restoration. Subyearlings were the primary salmonid collected and were seasonally abundant from April through May during all years. The abundance of juvenile salmon declined seasonally as water temperature exceeded 20 degrees C in the Reference site by mid-June; however, subyearlings persisted at the Mainstem site and in subtidal channels of the Restoration site through the summer in water temperatures exceeding 22 degrees C. Residence times of subyearlings in Crims Island backwaters generally were short consisting of one or two tidal cycles. Median residence time was longer in the Restoration site than in the Reference site pre- and post-restoration. Small (mean = 55.7 millimeters) subyea

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Using broad landscape level features to predict redd densities of steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Methow River watershed, Washington

We used broad-scale landscape feature variables to model redd densities of spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Methow River watershed. Redd densities were estimated from redd counts conducted from 2005 to 2007 and 2009 for steelhead trout and 2005 to 2009 for spring Chinook salmon. These densities were modeled using generalized linear mixed models. Variables examined included primary and secondary geology type, habitat type, flow type, sinuosity, and slope of stream channel. In addition, we included spring effect and hatchery effect variables to account for high densities of redds near known springs and hatchery outflows. Variables were associated with National Hydrography Database reach designations for modeling redd densities within each reach. Reaches were assigned a dominant habitat type, geology, mean slope, and sinuosity. The best fit model for spring Chinook salmon included sinuosity, critical slope, habitat type, flow type, and hatchery effect. Flow type, slope, and habitat type variables accounted for most of the variation in the data. The best fit model for steelhead trout included year, habitat type, flow type, hatchery effect, and spring effect. The spring effect, flow type, and hatchery effect variables explained most of the variation in the data. Our models illustrate how broad-scale landscape features may be used to predict spawning habitat over large areas where fine-scale data may be lacking.

Washington↗

Enhanced landslide mobility by basal liquefaction: the 2014 SR530 (Oso), Washington landslide

Landslide mobility can vastly amplify the consequences of slope failure. As a compelling example, the March 22, 2014 landslide near Oso, Washington (USA) was particularly devastating, traveling across a 1-km+ wide river valley, killing 43 people, destroying dozens of homes, and temporarily closing a well-traveled highway. To resolve causes for the landslide’s behavior and mobility, we conducted detailed post-event field investigations and material testing. Geologic and structure mapping revealed a progression of geomorphological structures ranging from debris flow lobes at the distal end, through hummock fields, laterally continuous landslide blocks, back-rotated blocks, and finally colluvial slides and falls at the landslide headscarp. Primary structures, as well as stratigraphic and vegetation patterns, in the landslide deposit indicated rapid extensional motion of the approximately nine-million-m3 source volume in a closely timed sequence of events. We identified hundreds of transient sand boils in the landslide runout zone – evidence of widespread elevated pore-water pressures with consequent shear-strength reduction at the base of the slide. During the event, underlying wet alluvium liquefied and allowed quasi-intact slide hummocks to extend and translate long distances across the flat valley. Most of the slide material itself did not liquefy. Using geotechnical testing and numerical modeling, we examined rapid undrained loading, shear and collapse of loose saturated alluvium, and strong ground shaking as potential liquefaction mechanisms. Our analyses show that some layers in the alluvium can liquefy when sheared, as could occur with rapid undrained loading. Simultaneous ground shaking could have contributed to pore-pressure generation as well. Two key elements, a large and rapid failure overriding wet liquefiable sediments, enabled the landslide’s high mobility. Basal liquefaction may enhance mobility of other landslides in similar settings.

Washington↗

North American Commission on Stratigraphic Nomenclature Note 70: Records of the Stratigraphic Commission 2014-2017

NACSN (North American Commission on Stratigraphic Nomenclature) Note 70 is a summary of the activities of the Commission from October 2014-October 2017. This note is condensed from the minutes of the 69th through the 72nd meetings of the NACSN held in conjunction with the Annual Meetings of the Geological Society of America. The 69th meeting of the NACSN was held October 20, 2014, in Vancouver, British Columbia; the 70th meeting on November 2, 2015, in Baltimore, Maryland; the 71st meeting on September 26, 2016, in Denver, Colorado; and the 72nd meeting on October 23, 2017, in Seattle, Washington. Members of the NACSN who served as officers during the period 2014-2017 serve as co-authors of this note and are listed with their roles in Appendix A. The mission of the NACSN is to develop statements of stratigraphic principles, recommend procedures applicable to the classification of nomenclature of stratigraphic units, review problems in classifying and naming stratigraphic and related units, and formulate expressions of judgement on these matters. Commissioners of the NACSN represent various geoscience professional organizations from Canada, Mexico, and the United States who have an interest in maintaining a stable stratigraphic nomenclature. Commissioners and their constituencies for 2014-2017 are listed in Appendix B.

Stratigraphy↗

Grain-size distribution and selected major and trace element concentrations in bed-sediment cores from the Lower Granite Reservoir and Snake and Clearwater Rivers, eastern Washington and northern Idaho, 2010

Lower Granite Dam impounds the Snake and Clearwater Rivers in eastern Washington and northern Idaho, forming Lower Granite Reservoir. Since 1975, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has dredged sediment from the Lower Granite Reservoir and the Snake and Clearwater Rivers in eastern Washington and northern Idaho to keep navigation channels clear and to maintain the flow capacity. In recent years, other Federal agencies, Native American governments, and special interest groups have questioned the negative effects that dredging might have on threatened or endangered species. To help address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, collected and analyzed bed-sediment core samples (hereinafter cores) in Lower Granite Reservoir and impounded or backwater affected parts of the Snake and Clearwater Rivers. Cores were collected during the spring and fall of 2010 from submerged sampling locations in the Lower Granite Reservoir, and Snake and Clearwater Rivers. A total of 69 cores were collected by using one or more of the following corers: piston, gravity, vibrating, or box. From these 69 cores, 185 subsamples were removed and submitted for grain size analyses, 50 of which were surficial-sediment subsamples. Fifty subsamples were also submitted for major and trace elemental analyses. Surficial-sediment subsamples from cores collected from sites at the lower end of the reservoir near the dam, where stream velocities are lower, generally had the largest percentages of silt and clay (more than 80 percent). Conversely, all of the surficial-sediment subsamples collected from sites in the Snake River had less than 20 percent silt and clay. Most of the surficial-sediment subsamples collected from sites in the Clearwater River contained less than 40 percent silt and clay. Surficial-sediment subsamples collected near midchannel at the confluence generally had more silt and clay than most surficial-sediment subsamples collected from sites on the Snake and Clearwater Rivers or even sites further downstream in Lower Granite Reservoir. Two cores collected at the confluence and all three cores collected on the Clearwater River immediately upstream from the confluence were extracted from a thick sediment deposit as shown by the cross section generated from the bathymetric surveys. The thick sediment deposits at the confluence and on the Clearwater River may be associated with floods in 1996 and 1997 on the Clearwater River. Fifty subsamples from 15 cores were analyzed for major and trace elements. Concentrations of trace elements were low, with respect to sediment quality guidelines, in most cores. Typically, major and trace element concentrations were lower in the subsamples collected from the Snake River compared to those collected from the Clearwater River, the confluence of the Snake and Clearwater Rivers, and Lower Granite Reservoir. Generally, lower concentrations of major and trace elements were associated with coarser sediments (larger than 0.0625 millimeter) and higher concentrations of major and trace elements were associated with finer sediments (smaller than 0.0625 millimeter).

Idaho, Washington↗