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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Investing in a nest egg: Intraspecific variation in the timing of egg laying across a latitudinal gradient

Avian reproductive strategies vary widely, and many studies of life-history variation have focused on the incubation and hatching stages of nesting. Birds make proximate decisions regarding reproductive investment during the laying stage, and these decisions likely constrain and tradeoff with other traits and subsequent behaviors. However, we know relatively little about egg-laying stage behaviors given the difficulty of locating and monitoring nest sites from the onset of laying. We used non-invasive continuous video recording to quantify variation in the egg-laying behaviors of burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia) along a 1400-km latitudinal gradient in western North America. Burrowing owls laid eggs disproportionately in the morning hours, and that tendency was strongest among first eggs in a clutch. However, selection appeared to act more strongly on laying intervals (the time between laying of consecutive eggs) than on the diel time of laying, and laying intervals varied widely among and within clutches. Laying intervals declined seasonally and with increasing clutch size but increased with increasing burrow temperature and as a function of laying stage nest attentiveness, which may be a strategy to preserve egg viability. Laying interval was positively correlated with the duration of hatching intervals, suggesting that laying interval duration is one mechanism (along with timing of incubation onset) that generates variation in hatching asynchrony. Our results lend support to two general hypotheses to explain laying schedules; selection favors laying eggs in the morning, but other selective pressures may override that pattern. These conclusions indicate that allocation decisions during laying are an important part of avian life-history strategies which are subject to energetic constraints and tradeoffs with other traits.

Oecologia↗
USGS2019

Total grain size distribution of an intense Hawaiian fountaining event: Case study of the1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption

The 1959 eruption of Kīlauea Iki on the Island of Hawai’i is a principal example of powerful Hawaiian fountaining. Over 36 days (including repose periods), 16 fountaining episodes created a small cone, a downwind tephra blanket of approximately 0.003 km 3 and a lava lake of about 0.04 km 3 volume. During the explosive activity, the maximum fountain heights reached 600 m. Based on a dataset of more than 450 tephra grain size samples, we present both a total grain size distribution (TGSD) of the entire downwind tephra deposit, and also TGSDs for two eruptive subunits (the opening and the closing stages). The opening stage was characterized by persistent fountaining over a period of 8 days with fountain heights averaging ∼ 100 m; in contrast, the closing stage was characterized by two short (hours-long) but powerful fountaining episodes (up to 600 m). The significantly different fountaining intensities are reflected in the characteristics of the TGSDs. For the closing stages, we link bimodality of TGSDs to periods of simultaneous deposition of ballistics and fallout from the convective cloud, both of which are a function of the maximum fountain height. The 1959 Kīlauea Iki case study presents a well-constrained set of TGSD data linked with Hawaiian-style fountaining of two contrasting intensities and can be used as a valuable reference point for eruption source parameters in future modeling of pyroclast dispersal during Hawaiian fountaining eruptions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2019

Bayesian analysis of the impact of rainfall data product on simulated slope failure for North Carolina locations

In the past decades, many different approaches have been developed in the literature to quantify the load-carrying capacity and geotechnical stability (or the Factor of Safety, F_s) of variably saturated hillslopes. Much of this work has focused on a deterministic characterization of hillslope stability. Yet, simulated F_s values are subject to considerable uncertainty due to our inability to characterize accurately the soil mantle’s properties (hydraulic, geotechnical and geomorphologic) and spatiotemporal variability of the moisture content of the hillslope interior. This is particularly true at larger spatial scales. Thus, uncertainty-incorporating analyses of physically based models of rain-induced landslides are rare in the literature. Such landslide modeling is typically conducted at the hillslope scale using gauge-based rainfall forcing data with rather poor spatiotemporal coverage. For regional landslide modeling, the specific advantages and/or disadvantages of gauge-only, radar-merged and satellite-based rainfall products are not clearly established. Here, we compare and evaluate the performance of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) model for three different rainfall products using 112 observed landslides in the period between 2004 and 2011 from the North Carolina Geological Survey database. Our study includes the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis Version 7 (TMPA V7), the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) analysis, and the reference ‘truth’ Stage IV precipitation. TRIGRS model performance was rather inferior with the use of literature values of the geotechnical parameters and soil hydraulic properties from ROSETTA using soil textural and bulk density data from SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic database). The performance of TRIGRS improved considerably after Bayesian estimation of the parameters with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm using Stage IV precipitation data. Hereto, we use a likelihood function that combines binary slope failure information from landslide event and ‘null’ periods using multivariate frequency distribution-based metrics such as the False Discovery and False Omission Rates. Our results demonstrate that the Stage IV-inferred TRIGRS parameter distributions generalize well to TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation data, particularly at sites with considerably larger TMPA and NLDAS-2 rainfall amounts during landslide events than null periods. TRIGRS model performance is then rather similar for all three rainfall products. At higher elevations, however, the TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation volumes are insufficient and their performance with the Stage IV-derived parameter distributions indicate their inability to accurately characterize hillslope stability.

North Carolina↗
USGS1994

Isotopic evidence for the source of sulfur in the Upper Freeport coal bed (west-central Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

Sulfur isotopic variations were used to determine the sources of sulfur in a medium-sulfur coal (???2 wt%S) that lacked marine influence, which is often cited as a major source of sulfur in coal. Variations in the amount and isotopic composition of the organic and pyritic sulfur among the coal-bed facies of the Upper Freeport coal bed (Middle Pennsylvanian) are attributed to differential incorporation of syngenetic and epigenetic sulfur. These variations reflect varying environmental conditions during paleopeat formation, porosity and permeability, and the availability of sulfate and iron. A large increase in the abundance and sulfur isotopic value of pyritic sulfur in the upper facies of the coal bed, in proximity to the overlying lacustrine shale, corresponds to an increase in massive and irregular forms of pyrite. This relationship is attributed to at least two stages of epigenetic pyrite incorporation. An early stage of epigenetic pyrite, moderately enriched in 34S, apparently formed during the fluvial-lacustrine period immediately following peat accumulation. A late stage of epigenetic pyrite, highly enriched in 34S, formed after compaction of the original peat as cleat- and fracture-filling pyrite; this sulfur was probably derived from bacterial reduction of dissolved sulfate in groundwater. Isotopic mass-balance calculations indicate that this late-stage epigenetic pyrite may account for up to ???50% of the pyritic sulfur in some upper facies of the coal bed. These results suggest that most of the pyritic sulfur in the Upper Freeport coal bed may be epigenetic, incorporated either soon after peat accumulation or later during coalification. ?? 1994.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS1972

Silicate melt inclusions and glasses in lunar soil fragments from the Luna 16 core sample

More than 2000 fragments were studied microscopically, and electron microprobe analyses were made of 39 selected areas, from a few square mm of polished surface, through 75- to 425-μm fragments of lunar soil from two samples of the Luna 16 core. The silicate melt inclusions and glasses differ in important details from those observed earlier in the Apollo samples. Melt inclusions in olivine contain epitaxially oriented daughter crystals, but also show a similar epitaxy around the outside of the crystals not observed in previous lunar samples. Melt inclusions in ilmenite suggest trapping at successive stages in a differentiation sequence. There is abundant evidence for late-stage silicate liquid immiscibility, with melt compositions similar but not identical to those from Apollo 11 and 12. A comparison of the alkali ratio of any given bulk rock analysis with that of its late-stage, high-silica melt shows gross differences for different rocks. This is pertinent to understanding late-stage differentiation processes. Glass fragments and spherules exhibit a wide range of crystallization textures, reflecting their wide range of compositions and cooling histories. No significant differences were found between the two portions of core examined (Zones A and D).

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS1984

Evaluation of the efficiency of streamflow data collection strategies for alluvial rivers

Streamflow discharge is usually determined indirectly from measurements of the river stage at gaging stations and through the use of stage-discharge relationships (rating curves). However, in alluvial streams, stage-discharge relationships change continually and, sometimes, quite markedly. Such changes may be caused by major floods, seasonal variations, or long-term secular trends associated with changes in the river channel. Consequently, reliable estimates of discharge using rating curves are not possible unless frequent direct measurements of discharge are made. Such measurements involve appreciable costs, and it is important to evaluate their contribution in increasing the accuracy of estimation of quantities of interest such as mean daily, monthly or annual flow. A methodology for the evaluation of the efficiency of data-collection strategies for alluvial rivers is developed and applied to stations on the Missouri River, U.S.A. A flexible and expedient model describing the variability of discharges and shifts in the stage-discharge relationship is developed. Procedures for the estimation of parameters and the validation of the model using actual data are presented. The calibrated and validated model is then employed in simulations to evaluate the effect of sampling strategies (such as frequency and accuracy of discharge measurements) on the accuracy of estimated mean daily, monthly and annual flow. Curves relating the cost of sampling to the achieved accuracy can be generated, and the optimization of sampling strategies given accuracy or budget objectives or constraints can be achieved.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS1989

The geology, botany and chemistry of selected peat-forming environments from temperate and tropical latitudes

Peat has been studied in several geologic settings: (1) glaciated terrain in cold temperate Maine and Minnesota, U.S.A.; (2) an island in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Maine, where sea level is rising; (3) the warm temperate U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, where sea level has changed often; and (4) the tropical coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, and the tropical delta of the Batang Hari River, Sumatra, Indonesia. Most of these deposits are domed (ombrotrophic or partly ombrotrophic) bogs in which peat accumulation continued above the surface of the surrounding soil. However, the bogs of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains are comparatively not as domed, and many have almost level surfaces. In some bogs, aquatic or semi-aquatic plant materials accumulated, replaced water in the depressions, and formed a surface on which marsh or swamp vegetation could subsequently live, die, and accumulate. In others, the plant materials accumulated initially on level silt or sand surfaces supporting marshes or swamps. As the peat dome formed, plants growing on it changed from luxuriant ones near the base of the dome, where nutrients were brought into the bog by surface and ground water, to stunted ones at the top of the dome, where the raised bogs are fed by nutrient-poor precipitation. The physical and chemical changes that take place in the sequence of environments from the pond stage of deposit development, through the grassy marsh stage, through the forested swamp stage, and finally through the heath dome stage can be measured in terms of acidity and ash, volatile matter, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur and oxygen contents, as well as in the kind and distribution of trace elements. The organic and inorganic contents of the deposits relate to geomorphology, and geomorphology relates to their settings. As models of coal formation, some domed peat deposits may help in solving problems of distribution and character of ancient coal beds. But clearly not all peat deposits are precursors of coal. Most Holocene peat deposits are subject to destruction by erosion, fire and decomposition through microbial and chemical oxidation before burial. The best environments for coal precursors have biomass accumulation, a continuously rising water table within the mass, and minimum influx of clay and silt until preservation by burial. The most suitable settings for future economic coal deposits are domed bogs that accumulate thick, widespread peat having low ash and low sulfur contents. The ombrotrophic peat deposits of tropical Sarawak and Sumatra are thick and extensive, contain low-ash and low-sulfur peat, and have high heating values. They are considered to be the best tropical coal analogs because of their extent and chances of preservation; the base of the peat is below adjacent river levels, and chemical and structural conditions are favorable for accumulation.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2008

Rates of zinc and trace metal release from dissolving sphalerite at pH 2.0-4.0

High-Fe and low-Fe sphalerite samples were reacted under controlled pH conditions to determine nonoxidative rates of release of Zn and trace metals from the solid-phase. The release (solubilization) of trace metals from dissolving sphalerite to the aqueous phase can be characterized by a kinetic distribution coefficient, (Dtr), which is defined as [(Rtr/X(tr)Sph)/(RZn/X(Zn) Sph)], where R is the trace metal or Zn release rate, and X is the mole fraction of the trace metal or Zn in sphalerite. This coefficient describes the relationship of the sphalerite dissolution rate to the trace metal mole fraction in the solid and its aqueous concentration. The distribution was used to determine some controls on metal release during the dissolution of sphalerite. Departures from the ideal Dtr of 1.0 suggest that some trace metals may be released via different pathways or that other processes (e.g., adsorption, solubility of trace minerals such as galena) affect the observed concentration of metals. Nonoxidative sphalerite dissolution (mediated by H+) is characterized by a "fast" stage in the first 24-30 h, followed by a "slow" stage for the remainder of the reaction. Over the pH range 2.0-4.0, and for similar extent of reaction (reaction time), sphalerite composition, and surface area, the rates of release of Zn, Fe, Cd, Cu, Mn and Pb from sphalerite generally increase with lower pH. Zinc and Fe exhibit the fastest rates of release, Mn and Pb have intermediate rates of release, and Cd and Cu show the slowest rates of release. The largest variations in metal release rates occur at pH 2.0. At pH 3.0 and 4.0, release rates show less variation and appear less dependent on the metal abundance in the solid. For the same extent of reaction (100 h), rates of Zn release range from 1.53 ?? 10-11 to 5.72 ?? 10-10 mol/m2/s; for Fe, the range is from 4.59 ?? 10-13 to 1.99 ?? 10-10 mol/m2/s. Trace metal release rates are generally 1-5 orders of magnitude slower than the Zn or Fe rates. Results indicate that the distributions of Fe and Cd are directly related to the rate of sphalerite dissolution throughout the reaction at pH 3.0 and 4.0 because these two elements substitute readily into sphalerite. These two metals are likely to be more amenable to usage in predictive acid dissolution models because of this behavior. The Pb distribution shows no strong relation to sphalerite dissolution and appears to be controlled by pH-dependent solubility, most likely related to trace amounts of galena. The distribution of Cu is similar to that of Fe but is the most-dependent of all metals on its mole fraction ratio (Zn:Cu) in sphalerite. The Mn distributions suggest an increase in the rate of Mn release relative to sphalerite dissolution occurs in low Mn samples as pH increases. The Mn distribution in high Mn samples is nearly independent of pH and sphalerite dissolution at pH 2.0 but shows a dependence on these two parameters at higher pH (3.0-4.0).

Applied Geochemistry↗
USGS2014

Relationships between water and gas chemistry in mature coalbed methane reservoirs of the Black Warrior Basin

Water and gas chemistry in coalbed methane reservoirs of the Black Warrior Basin reflects a complex interplay among burial processes, basin hydrodynamics, thermogenesis, and late-stage microbial methanogenesis. These factors are all important considerations for developing production and water management strategies. Produced water ranges from nearly potable sodium-bicarbonate water to hypersaline sodium-chloride brine. The hydrodynamic framework of the basin is dominated by structurally controlled fresh-water plumes that formed by meteoric recharge along the southeastern margin of the basin. The produced water contains significant quantities of hydrocarbons and nitrogen compounds, and the produced gas appears to be of mixed thermogenic-biogenic origin. Late-stage microbial methanogenesis began following unroofing of the basin, and stable isotopes in the produced gas and in mineral cements indicate that late-stage methanogenesis occurred along a CO 2 -reduction metabolic pathway. Hydrocarbons, as well as small amounts of nitrate in the formation water, probably helped nourish the microbial consortia, which were apparently active in fresh to hypersaline water. The produced water contains NH 4 + and NH 3 , which correlate strongly with brine concentration and are interpreted to be derived from silicate minerals. Denitrification reactions may have generated some N 2 , which is the only major impurity in the coalbed gas. Carbon dioxide is a minor component of the produced gas, but significant quantities are dissolved in the formation water. Degradation of organic compounds, augmented by deionization of NH 4 + , may have been the principal sources of hydrogen facilitating late-stage CO 2 reduction.

Alabama↗
USGS2024

Contrasting demographic responses under future climate for two populations of a montane amphibian

For species with complex life histories, climate change can have contrasting effects for different life stages within locally adapted populations and may result in responses counter to general climate change predictions. Using data from two, 14-year demographic studies for a North American montane amphibian, Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ), we quantified how aspects of current climate influenced annual survival of larvae and adult stages and modeled the stochastic population growth rate (λ s ) of each population for current (1980–2006) and future periods (2080s). Climate drivers of survival for the populations were similar for larvae (i.e., decreases in precipitation lead to pond drying and mortality), but diverged for terrestrial stages where decreases in winter length and summer precipitation had opposite effects. By the 2080s, we predict one population will be in sharp decline (λ s = 0.90), while the other population will remain nearly stable (λ s = 0.99) in the absence of other stressors, such as mortality due to disease. Our case study demonstrates a result counter to many climate envelope predictions in that stage-specific responses to local climate and hydrology result in a higher extinction risk for the more northern population.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2007

Effects of Phos-Chek® G75-F and Silv-Ex® on red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) embryos

Effects of field application levels of wildfire control chemicals, Phos-Chek ® G75-F (PC) and Silv-Ex ® (SE), were examined on red-winged blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) embryos. Embryos were more sensitive to PC and SE when eggs were immersed for 10 s at an early developmental stage (days 3–5 of incubation) than at a later stage (days 6–9 of incubation). The LC 50 (concentration causing 50% mortality) for early stage embryos exposed to PC was 213.3 g/L (slope = 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 129.1–326.1). The no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was below 135 g PC/L, which caused a significant increase in embryonic mortality and represents the lowest field coverage level of 1 gal/100 feet 2 . The LC 50 for early stage embryos exposed to SE was 19.8 g/L (slope = 1.5; 95% CI = 11.7–52.2). Significant mortality was observed at 10 g SE/L and marginal at 7.5 g SE/L with an apparent NOEC around 5 g SE/L. Neither chemical resulted in apparent developmental malformations.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2020

Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting

Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way – using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational forecast model designed specifically for conservation management purposes including water management. It provides up to six-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Everglades. We validated EverForecast quarterly to measured historical values at 207 gages (1 Jan 2000 – 31 Dec 2019). EverForecast hindcasted water stage accurately captured measured stage variation, with a low percentage of measured stage exceeding hindcasted values. Over the whole spatial extent, the mean RMSE is 20.98 cm, the mean MAE is 14.42 cm, and the mean MBE is 0.91 cm.

Florida↗
USGS2015

Day-roost tree selection by northern long-eared bats - What do non-roost tree comparisons and one year of data really tell us?

Bat day-roost selection often is described through comparisons of day-roosts with randomly selected, and assumed unused, trees. Relatively few studies, however, look at patterns of multi-year selection or compare day-roosts used across years. We explored day-roost selection using 2 years of roost selection data for female northern long-eared bats ( Myotis septentrionalis ) on the Fort Knox Military Reservation, Kentucky, USA. We compared characteristics of randomly selected non-roost trees and day-roosts using a multinomial logistic model and day-roost species selection using chi-squared tests. We found that factors differentiating day-roosts from non-roosts and day-roosts between years varied. Day-roosts differed from non-roosts in the first year of data in all measured factors, but only in size and decay stage in the second year. Between years, day-roosts differed in size and canopy position, but not decay stage. Day-roost species selection was non-random and did not differ between years. Although bats used multiple trees, our results suggest that there were additional unused trees that were suitable as roosts at any time. Day-roost selection pattern descriptions will be inadequate if based only on a single year of data, and inferences of roost selection based only on comparisons of roost to non-roosts should be limited.

Kentucky↗
USGS2021

Coffee plantations, hurricanes and avian resiliency: Insights from occupancy, and local colonization and extinction rates in Puerto Rico

Insights on impacts and resiliency of avian species with respect to hurricanes in the Caribbean have largely focused on responses measured in protected habitats. We assessed avian responses in non-protected habitat, specifically shade-restored coffee plantations, because their structural complexity retains many attributes of secondary forests, and may contribute to landscape scale species resiliency. We tallied species richness, and estimated occupancy probability of 12 resident avian species, after adjusting for imperfect detection, to assess the impact of hurricane Maria (20 September 2017) in the context of two stages of shade-restored coffee plantations. For 5 of those species, we also estimated local colonization and extinction probabilities to assess their prospect of rebounding (resiliency). We used survey data collected March-June 2015-2017 (pre-hurricane) and 2018 (post-hurricane) in 58 coffee farms and satellite imagery to assess vegetation structure. Restored farms were grouped into two categories based on time-since-restoration: newly-restored and fully-restored. We predicted that mean percent forest cover in fully-restored farms (~30-40%) would revert to levels in newly-restored farms (<15%), with concomitant changes in occupancy by avian species. As predicted, mean percent forest cover (16.17 4.27%) in fully-restored farms post-hurricane reverted to pre-hurricane levels in newly-restored farms (15.00 5.61%). The loss represented 30-38% relative to the pre-hurricane cover levels. Detections of focal species dropped an average of 41% post-hurricane, with associated reductions in occupancy for 9/11 species. Occupancy of the Puerto Rican Bullfinch and Puerto Rican Spindalis reverted to levels detected in newly-restored plantations prior to the hurricane as predicted. Prospects of rebounding were more likely for species with invariant or increases in colonization probability (e.g., Yellow-faced Grassquit, Northern Mockingbird, Puerto Rican Spindalis). Rebounding for frugivores like the Puerto Rican Bullfinch would be protracted given that colonization rates dropped from 0.56 0.12 (pre-hurricane) to 0.04 0.2 (post-hurricane), regardless of restoration stage. Our work showed that the avian community associated with restored coffee farms exhibited as high degree of ecological resistance as the similarity in species composition before and after the hurricane was 81%, and all 12 focal species continued to occupy farms under both restoration stages. The prospect of the focal species to rebound (resiliency) was specific-specific, and in some cases, mediated by their affinity to a particular farm restoration stage. The strength of hurricanes is projected to intensify with global warming. Pockets of undamaged or partially damaged shade-grown or fully-restored coffee plantations may contribute to species resiliency by increasing landscape level habitat redundancy, and facilitate habitat shifts to secure food resources or harbor source populations to colonize recovering, hurricane-damaged habitat tracts.

Greater Antilles↗
USGS2025

Partial diel vertical migration and niche partitioning in Mysis revealed by stable isotopes

Diel vertical migration (DVM) is critical for moving energy and nutrients between surface and deep waters. Mysis sp. (Crustacea: Mysidae) facilitates this process by serving as predator and prey in both benthic and pelagic habitats. Mysis can also exhibit partial DVM (pDVM), where some individuals do not migrate into the pelagia at night or to the benthos during the day. However, whether Mysis pDVM is a fixed (i.e., same individuals migrate) or random (i.e., random individuals migrate) behavior remains unclear. To evaluate that, we tested whether Mysis exhibit pDVM and niche partitioning in Lake Superior by collecting Mysis from benthic and pelagic habitats day and night across depths ranging from 50 to 250 m and estimating their isotopic niche size (δ 13 C, δ 15 N; Corrected Standard Ellipse Area − SEA c ) and overlap among three life stages. At the population level, Mysis exhibited fixed pDVM structured by life stage. Benthic Mysis (12.9 ± 3.2 mm, mean ± SD) were larger than pelagic Mysis during night (9.6 ± 3.6 mm) and day (8.5 ± 3.6 mm). Adult Mysis (> 15 mm) had larger SEA c (1.8 ± 0.4 ‰ 2 ) compared to juveniles (< 10 mm; 0.3 ± 0.1 ‰ 2 ) and sub-adults (10–15 mm; 0.7 ± 0.2 ‰ 2 ), and their isotopic niche did not overlap with smaller life stages. Adults exhibited random pDVM (i.e., high isotopic niche overlap), whereas juveniles exhibited fixed pDVM (i.e., low overlap). Our observations indicate complex behaviors across and within Mysis life stages, likely due to varying pressures including size-selective predation, light and temperature thresholds, and nutritional requirements. Consequently, the benthic behavior of adult Mysis needs to be considered in monitoring programs.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2018

Computing under-ice discharge: A proof-of-concept using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept

Under-ice discharge is estimated using open-water reference hydrographs; however, the ratings for ice-affected sites are generally qualified as poor. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted a proof-of-concept to develop an alternative method for computing under-ice discharge using hydroacoustics and the Probability Concept. The study site was located south of Minturn, Colorado (CO), USA, and was selected because of (1) its proximity to the existing USGS streamgage 09064600 Eagle River near Minturn, CO, and (2) its ease-of-access to verify discharge using a variety of conventional methods. From late September 2014 to early March 2015, hydraulic conditions varied from open water to under ice. These temporal changes led to variations in water depth and velocity. Hydroacoustics (tethered and uplooking acoustic Doppler current profilers and acoustic Doppler velocimeters) were deployed to measure the vertical-velocity profile at a singularly important vertical of the channel-cross section. Because the velocity profile was non-standard and cannot be characterized using a Power Law or Log Law, velocity data were analyzed using the Probability Concept, which is a probabilistic formulation of the velocity distribution. The Probability Concept-derived discharge was compared to conventional methods including stage-discharge and index-velocity ratings and concurrent field measurements; each is complicated by the dynamics of ice formation, pressure influences on stage measurements, and variations in cross-sectional area due to ice formation. No particular discharge method was assigned as truth. Rather one statistical metric (Kolmogorov-Smirnov; KS), agreement plots, and concurrent measurements provided a measure of comparability between various methods. Regardless of the method employed, comparisons between each method revealed encouraging results depending on the flow conditions and the absence or presence of ice cover. For example, during lower discharges dominated by under-ice and transition (intermittent open-water and under-ice) conditions, the KS metric suggests there is not sufficient information to reject the null hypothesis and implies that the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating represent similar distributions. During high-flow, open-water conditions, the comparisons are less definitive; therefore, it is important that the appropriate analytical method and instrumentation be selected. Six conventional discharge measurements were collected concurrently with Probability Concept-derived discharges with percent differences (%) of −9.0%, −21%, −8.6%, 17.8%, 3.6%, and −2.3%. This proof-of-concept demonstrates that riverine discharges can be computed using the Probability Concept for a range of hydraulic extremes (variations in discharge, open-water and under-ice conditions) immediately after the siting phase is complete, which typically requires one day. Computing real-time discharges is particularly important at sites, where (1) new streamgages are planned, (2) river hydraulics are complex, and (3) shifts in the stage-discharge rating are needed to correct the streamflow record. Use of the Probability Concept does not preclude the need to maintain a stage-area relation. Both the Probability Concept and index-velocity rating offer water-resource managers and decision makers alternatives for computing real-time discharge for open-water and under-ice conditions.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Uncertainty in remote sensing of streams using noncontact radars

Accounting for freshwater resources and monitoring floods are vital functions for societies throughout the world. Remote-sensing methods offer great prospects to expand stream monitoring in developing countries and to smaller, headwater streams that are largely ungauged worldwide. This study evaluates the potential to estimate discharge using eight radar units that have been installed over streams in diverse hydrologic and hydraulic settings across the United States. The research highlights error characteristics associated with the measurements of stage using pulsed wave radars, mean channel velocity from continuous wave Doppler radars, and their combined use to estimate discharge at sites that were collocated with conventional streamgauges. Potential stage biases caused by the thermal expansion and contraction of supporting structures due to diurnal temperature changes were examined. A dry concrete, flume showed the temperature-dependent stage variations were no more than 2 cm. Surface velocity retrievals needed to be adjusted to represent the mean channel velocity when estimating discharge. Different approaches were evaluated and application of two different, depth-dependent adjustment factors was found to yield the most accurate estimates. This study found that it is possible to get accurate discharge estimates from noncontact radar measurements, providing cost-effective solutions for remote sensing of ungauged streams. Lastly, radar measurements of the raw variables (i.e., stage and surface velocity) can be used in an early alerting context to detect flash floods in ungauged streams.

Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas↗
USGS2023

Decadal shifts in the population growth, regeneration, and health of Taxodium distichum in swamps of the Cache River Watershed, Illinois

Population projection models based on long-term trends in regeneration and tree survival can be used to predict the future stability of swamp forest species using water management. Population growth and regeneration of a foundational tree species in North American cypress swamps ( Taxodium distichum ) were compared in the Cache River watershed of southern Illinois USA over several decades. This study examined T. distichum population growth in several regional swamps within the Cache River watershed along a moisture gradient to model growth, stability, or decline based on data of life history stage transitions, using data from the following time periods: the 1990s, 2002–2011, and 2012–2022. Using data from the 1990s, T. distichum populations in Crawford Tract in Buttonland Swamp were projected to increase over time because of the high frequency of juvenile stages at elevations with growing season drawdown and winter flooding. The situation in Crawford Tract had changed by 2019–2021 because T. distichum seedlings had not transitioned (i.e., saplings and young trees were absent) although no old-growth trees had died during or after the 1990s. In other regional swamps, projection models were constructed over two decades (2006–2021) along a dry-to-wet flood gradient including Section 8 Woods, Deer Pond, Wildcat Bluff, Snake Hole, and Heron Pond. Populations in swamps on the drier end of the gradient had more support from juvenile stages. In a tree health survey in 2022 within the impounded interior of Buttonland Swamp (not Crawford Tract), seventy percent of the old-growth T. distichum trees were stressed or declining. Coupled with the fact that no seedlings or saplings were observed, the populations in the interior of the swamp were not stable. Many factors could further stress these ancient T. distichum including interactions of impoundment with chemicals, disease, and changes in air temperature and precipitation. Overall, the seedling abundance in these swamps increased in these environments from 2012 to 2021, except in the most flooded swamps. From a management perspective, drier conditions were more conducive to the success of the earlier life history stages of T. distichum in these old-growth forests.

Illinois↗