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USGS2024

Simulating present and future groundwater/surface-water interactions and stream temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

In many places, coldwater ecosystems are facing increasing pressure from anthropogenic warming. This study examined stream temperatures and the water balance in the Beaver Creek watershed on the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska—an area that is experiencing rapid warming. Low-gradient streams near the Kenai coast provide important spawning and rearing habitat for salmon but may be especially vulnerable to rising temperatures, because of long residence times, inflows from abundant riparian wetlands, and reliance on groundwater discharge that may also warm, or decrease in volume with rising evapotranspiration. In recent decades, observed maximum 7-day temperatures have consistently exceeded statistical (regression-based) projections. Here we simulate total streamflows and temperatures with a physics-based model that links the Soil Water Balance, MODFLOW 6 and SNTEMP simulation codes on a 7-day timestep. The model is based on existing data and groundwater levels, instream flows, and stream temperatures collected during 2019–23. Future climate scenarios were developed for 2023–50 from downscaled climate projections. Results indicate that groundwater discharge is about 64 percent of the total streamflow during the months of May through September. Total streamflow and groundwater discharge are expected to remain similar to current conditions through 2050. Stream temperatures are expected to rise; by midcentury, near the Beaver Creek mouth the model predicts 34 to 63 additional days per year with average weekly temperatures above 13 degrees Celsius, 14 to 81 additional days with average weekly temperatures above 15 degrees Celsius, and routine exceedances of 20 degrees Celsius during the warmest periods. Projected stream temperatures vary spatially. Areas of high groundwater inflows in the lower main stem and some tributaries may be most resilient to warming air temperatures during dry conditions. During storm events, groundwater-dominated tributaries may have the coolest stream temperatures.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

USGS approach to real-time estimation of earthquake-triggered ground failure - Results of 2015 workshop

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards and Landslide Hazards Programs are developing plans to add quantitative hazard assessments of earthquake-triggered landsliding and liquefaction to existing real-time earthquake products (ShakeMap, ShakeCast, PAGER) using open and readily available methodologies and products. To date, prototype global statistical models have been developed and are being refined, improved, and tested. These models are a good foundation, but much work remains to achieve robust and defensible models that meet the needs of end users. In order to establish an implementation plan and identify research priorities, the USGS convened a workshop in Golden, Colorado, in October 2015. This document summarizes current (as of early 2016) capabilities, research and operational priorities, and plans for further studies that were established at this workshop. Specific priorities established during the meeting include (1) developing a suite of alternative models; (2) making use of higher resolution and higher quality data where possible; (3) incorporating newer global and regional datasets and inventories; (4) reducing barriers to accessing inventory datasets; (5) developing methods for using inconsistent or incomplete datasets in aggregate; (6) developing standardized model testing and evaluation methods; (7) improving ShakeMap shaking estimates, particularly as relevant to ground failure, such as including topographic amplification and accounting for spatial variability; and (8) developing vulnerability functions for loss estimates.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Assessment and characterization of ephemeral stream channel stability and mechanisms affecting erosion in Grand Valley, western Colorado, 2018–21

The Grand Valley in western Colorado is in the semiarid Southwest United States. The north side of the Grand Valley has many ungaged ephemeral streams, which are of particular interest because (1) the underlying bedrock geology, Late Cretaceous Mancos Shale, is a sedimentary rock deposit identified as a major salinity contributor to the Colorado River and (2) despite infrequent streamflows of short duration, monsoon-derived floods in these ephemeral streams can carry substantial amounts of sediment downstream, affecting upstream and downstream banks and channel cross sections. The study area is of interest, because salinity, or the total dissolved solids concentration, in the Colorado River causes an estimated $300 million to $400 million per year in economic damages in the United States, and it is estimated 62 percent of the Upper Colorado River Basin’s total dissolved solid loads originate from geologic sources. In an effort to minimize salt contributions to the Colorado River from public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, a comprehensive salinity control approach is typically used to reduce nonpoint sources of salinity through land management techniques and practices. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, began an assessment of ephemeral streams located on the north side of the Grand Valley, western Colorado, to characterize stream channel stability and identify mechanisms affecting erosion. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a method for automatically extracting channel cross-section geometry from existing remotely sensed terrain models. Based on estimated flood stage and surrogate streamflows, hydraulic characteristics were calculated. Furthermore, the channel geometries and hydraulic characteristics were used to estimate channel stability using a statistical model. Cross-section stabilities were determined from a stream channel stability assessment for a subset of 1,406 visited (field observed) locations out of 13,415 cross sections, which were delineated from remotely sensed terrain models. The application of Manning’s resistance equation in combination with multiple logistic regression models demonstrated channel stability can be estimated with a 0.845 goodness of fit for a validation dataset when using a combination of drainage area, width-to-depth ratio, sinuosity, and shear stress as the explanatory variables. Stream channel stability was extrapolated for 13,415 unvisited (not field observed) cross sections using the multiple logistic regression model and defined explanatory variables. Mapping of the ephemeral streams and their associated stabilities may be used by the Bureau of Land Management to prioritize areas for remediation or changes in management strategies to reduce sediment and salinity loading to the Colorado River. The study found channel stability within the ephemeral streams to be spatially variable, longitudinally discontinuous, and dictated by changes in channel bed slope. The stable ephemeral streams were relatively wide and shallow and often had smaller drainage areas with less potential for producing shear stresses capable of overcoming channel adhesion. A change in channel bed slope can provide the means necessary to generate shear stresses appropriate to initiate erosion and a subsequent stability transition to incising channels. Channel widening happens when either or both banks of an incising channel reach a critical height for mass wasting, or when channel curvature causes higher sidewall stress. Regardless, widening channels can promote increases in sinuosity and subsequently reduce steep channel bed slopes. Consequently, stable and widening channels can have comparable bed slopes, making channel bed slope a poor explanatory variable to predict channel stability overall, despite its function to initiate channel instability. The results were based on a surrogate 0.10 annual exceedance probability (AEP; return period equal to the 10-year flood) interval streamflow, although it was recognized fluctuations in streamflow would also affect channel stability. Past and current changes within the study area affect streamflow; therefore, mechanisms affecting erosion include land use disturbances, soil compaction, loss of vegetation cover, drought, less frequent and more extreme precipitation, and fires—which all intensify the potential runoff and erosion within the study area.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

Population trends of native Hawaiian forest birds, 1976–2008: the data and statistical analyses

The Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project has produced a centralized database of forest bird survey data collected in Hawai`i since the mid-1970s. The database contains over 1.1 million bird observation records of 90 species from almost 600 surveys on the main Hawaiian Islands—a dataset including nearly all surveys from that period. The primary objective has been to determine the status and trends of native Hawaiian forest birds derived from this comprehensive dataset. We generated species-specific density estimates from each survey and tested for changes in population densities over the longest possible temporal period. Although this cumulative data set seems enormous and represents the best available information on status of Hawaiian forest birds, detecting meaningful population distribution, density, and trends for forest birds in Hawai`i has been difficult. These population parameters are best derived from long-term, large-scale, standardized monitoring programs. The basis for long-term population monitoring in Hawai`i was established by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey of 1976-1983 (Scott et al. 1986). Since then, however, only key areas have been resurveyed, primarily to monitor rare species. The majority of surveys since the early 1980s have been conducted by numerous, independent programs, resulting in some inconsistencies in methodology and sampling that in some cases has been intermittent and usually at limited scale (temporally or spatially). Thus, despite the consolidation of data into a centralized database, our understanding of population patterns is rather limited, especially at the regional and landscape scales. To rectify their deficiency, we present a framework to improve the understanding of forest bird trends in Hawai`i through an overarching monitoring design that allocates sampling at appropriate regional and temporal scales. Despite the limitations of the current monitoring effort, important generalities stand out vividly from the multiplicity of species-specific trends. Overall, in marginal habitats the Hawaiian passerine fauna continues to decline, with populations of most species shrinking in size and distribution. Since the early 1980s, 10 species that were rare at the time may now be extinct, although one, the `Alalā (Corvus hawaiiensis), survives in captivity. Dedicated search effort for the remaining nine species has been inadequate. Of the 22 species remaining, eight have declined, five appear to be stable, two are increasing, and the trend for seven species is unclear. On the bright side, native passerines, including endangered species, appear to be stable or increasing in areas with large tracts of native forest above 1,500 m elevation, even while decreasing in more fragmented or disturbed habitats, particularly at lower elevation. For example, all eight native species resident at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge have shown stable trends or significant increases in density over the long-term. Thus, native birds are ever more restricted to high-elevation forest and woodland refugia. It is these upland habitats that require sustained and all-out restoration to prevent further extinctions of Hawaiian forest birds.

Technical Report↗

USGS2015

Groundwater quality in Geauga County, Ohio: status, including detection frequency of methane in water wells, 2009, and changes during 1978-2009

Domestic wells that are not safeguarded by regular water-quality testing provide drinking water for 79 percent of the residents of Geauga County, in northeastern Ohio. Since 1978, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has worked cooperatively with the Board of Commissioners and Geauga County Planning Commission to monitor the quality of groundwater in four commonly used aquifers in county—the glacial deposits, the Pottsville Formation, the Cuyahoga Group, and the Berea Sandstone. A 33-percent growth in population from 1980 to 2009 increased the potential for humans to influence groundwater resources by withdrawing more groundwater, disposing of more human waste near the land surface, treating an expanded network of township roads with deicing salt, and likely using more solvents, pesticides, and other chemicals on the land surface than were used in preceding decades. To describe the status of groundwater quality in 2009 and its suitability for drinking, USGS personnel collected samples of water prior to treatment from 16 wells (mostly domestic) during June 9–19. The samples were analyzed for 92 properties and constituents, 41 of which had human-health benchmarks to which analytical results could be compared to evaluate suitability for drinking. Four of these benchmarks were exceeded at the following frequencies: arsenic (2 of 16 wells, 12.5 percent), total coliform bacteria (2 of 16 wells, 12.5 percent), fecal coliform bacteria (1 of 14 wells, 7 percent), and sodium (6 of 16 wells, 38 percent). No domestic wells sampled in 2009 exceeded the health-based benchmark of 300 micrograms per liter (µg/L) for manganese, although 5 of 65 wells (8 percent) sampled since 1978 have. Analyses from domestic wells were augmented with water-quality data from seven public-supply well fields that were obtained from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. These public-supply data were typically collected between 2000 and 2010 and represent water samples that were collected prior to treatment or that were treated by a method that does not effectively remove the constituents of interest. Similar to the domestic-well data, these data indicated that some samples from public-supply wells have also exceeded health-based benchmarks for arsenic and sodium, along with occasional exceedances of health-based benchmarks for cadmium and lead. Concentrations of nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in ground-water samples from domestic and (or) public-supply wells were either considerably less than the human-health benchmarks for these constituents or were not detected. Water-quality data collected in 2009 were also compared to aesthetically based benchmarks developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, called Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (SMCLs). Iron and manganese most frequently exceeded SMCLs (in samples from 10 of 16 domestic wells and in untreated water from 3 of 4 public-supply well fields). To evaluate the frequency of methane detection in water wells in the county, the USGS sampled 16 wells across the county and screened the samples for combustible gas within the headspace (the air above the water in a closed container). Water from three (19 percent) of the wells contained detectable combustible gas (0.10 to 0.40 percent by volume). All three detections were from wells tapping the Cuyahoga Group or the Berea Sandstone, and all detections were less than the lower explosive limit of 5 percent by volume—the concentration at which methane in air can be flammable if an ignition source is present. Analyses of dissolved gas composition in water from these three wells showed methane concentrations ranging from 0.007 to 1.8 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The primary effect of human activities on groundwater quality found during this study is the input of salinity, or chloride, near land surface. On the basis of ratios of chloride to bromide, the main sources of chloride are road salt and septic leachate rather than oil-field brines (either spilled at land surface or sprayed on roads for dust control). The correlation of chloride concentration to distance of well from road for 31 wells in the county sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1999 suggests that road salt is the dominant source of chloride. The majority of constituents exceeding health-based and aesthetically based benchmarks in groundwater were those that are naturally present in aquifer rocks and sediments rather than constituents introduced by human activities. Concentrations of such natural contaminants are controlled by geochemical processes in the subsurface, particularly by oxidation-reduction (redox) reactions. The categorization of redox conditions based on the water quality of 116 samples collected from 65 wells in Geauga County during 1978 through 2009 indicates that most groundwater samples were strongly reducing (60 percent) or oxic (18 percent). Oxic waters were found only in the Pottsville Formation and Berea Sandstone and were generally associated with nitrate at concentrations of 0.38 to 6.0 mg/L. Strongly reducing waters occurred in all four commonly used aquifers and were associated with the following naturally occurring contaminants: (1) arsenic and manganese at concentrations exceeding the health-based benchmarks (10 µg/L and 300 µg/L, respectively) in some samples, (2) iron and manganese at concentrations exceeding the aesthetically based standards (300 µg/L and 50 µg/L, respectively) in most samples, and (3) total sulfides (consisting of hydrogen sulfide gas with its characteristic rotten-egg odor and [or] iron sulfide minerals that appear as finely disseminated particulates in water). Because of the association of redox conditions with specific contaminants, attempts were made to further document spatially where oxic and strongly reducing conditions occur so that contaminant occurrence can be better anticipated by planners and well owners. Within the Pottsville Formation, wells tapping strongly reducing groundwater tended to have a greater thickness of overlying low-permeability (recharge-inhibiting) material such as clay and shale than other wells tapping oxic or nitrate-reducing groundwater. In the Berea Sandstone, oxic conditions were found at well locations where either depth to groundwater was shallow (less than 45 feet [ft] below land surface) or the measured water level was within the open interval (uncased portion) of the well, whereas strongly reducing groundwater was found at well locations where depths to water were greater than 60 ft below land surface and measured water levels were 15 ft or more above the open interval of the well. To evaluate whether constituent concentrations consistently increased or decreased over time, the strength of the association between sampling year (time) and constituent concentration was statistically evaluated for 116 water-quality samples collected by the USGS in 1978, 1980, 1986, 1999, and 2009 from a total of 65 wells across the county (generally domestic wells or wells serving small businesses or churches). Results indicate that many of the constituents that have been analyzed for decades exhibited no consistent temporal trends at a statistically significant level (p-value less than 0.05); fluctuations in concentrations of these constituents represent natural variation in groundwater quality. Dissolved oxygen, calcium, and sulfate concentrations and chloride:bromide ratios increased over time in one or more aquifers, while pH and concentrations of bromide and dissolved organic carbon decreased over time. Detections of total coliform bacteria and nitrate did not become more frequent from 1986 to 2009, even though potential sources of these constituents, such as number of septic systems (linked to population) and percent developed land in the county, increased during this period.

Geauga County↗

USGS2006

A simulation model of land-use change in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada, as used in a decision-support system

The Tahoe Land-Use Change model is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation of future land-use change—in particular, development and retirement of individual parcels—in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. The Federal, State, and regional management agencies responsible for the basin are revising and integrating their 20-year plans to meet various goals, including maintaining or improving several environmental (e.g., lake clarity, forest health) and socioeconomic (e.g., affordable housing) characteristics. To assist this effort, the model projects the long-term outcomes of land-use-management decisions, including those relating to existing and potential government regulations, development activities, and conservation practices. The model results are probabilistic maps of parcel-specific changes in land use and the resulting changes in the amount and locations of developed parcels and land-use change. To capture the uncertainties and variation in the exact parcels of land selected for development or retirement by individuals acting in the basin, a single model run includes multiple iterations, from which cumulative statistics are taken to describe the results. The purpose of the model is to generate changes in the amounts and types of land use and land cover that form inputs to a basinwide model of pollutant loading to Lake Tahoe, which, in turn, generates inputs to a lake-clarity model. Together, these three models form a chain of tools that link land-use decisions to changes in a critical environmental quality—the clarity of Lake Tahoe—within a decision-support context. Eventually, these three models will become part of a larger, more complete decision-support system.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Linking modern pollen accumulation rates to biomass: Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the western Klamath Mountains, NW California, USA

Quantitative reconstructions of vegetation abundance from sediment-derived pollen systems provide unique insights into past ecological conditions. Recently, the use of pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm −2 year −1 ) has shown promise as a bioproxy for plant abundance. However, successfully reconstructing region-specific vegetation dynamics using PAR requires that accurate assessments of pollen deposition processes be quantitatively linked to spatially-explicit measures of plant abundance. Our study addressed these methodological challenges. Modern PAR and vegetation data were obtained from seven lakes in the western Klamath Mountains, California. To determine how to best calibrate our PAR-biomass model, we first calculated the spatial area of vegetation where vegetation composition and patterning is recorded by changes in the pollen signal using two metrics. These metrics were an assemblage-level relevant source area of pollen (aRSAP) derived from extended R-value analysis ( sensu Sugita, 1993) and a taxon-specific relevant source area of pollen (tRSAP) derived from PAR regression ( sensu Jackson, 1990). To the best of our knowledge, aRSAP and tRSAP have not been directly compared. We found that the tRSAP estimated a smaller area for some taxa (e.g. a circular area with a 225 m radius for Pinus ) than the aRSAP (a circular area with a 625 m radius). We fit linear models to relate PAR values from modern lake sediments with empirical, distance-weighted estimates of aboveground live biomass (AGL dw ) for both the aRSAP and tRSAP distances. In both cases, we found that the PARs of major tree taxa – Pseudotsuga, Pinus, Notholithocarpus , and TCT (Taxodiaceae, Cupressaceae, and Taxaceae families) – were statistically significant and reasonably precise estimators of contemporary AGL dw . However, predictions weighted by the distance defined by aRSAP tended to be more precise. The relative root-mean squared error for the aRSAP biomass estimates was 9% compared to 12% for tRSAP. Our results demonstrate that calibrated PAR-biomass relationships provide a robust method to infer changes in past plant biomass.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2022

Characterization of and temporal changes in groundwater quality of the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, El Paso County, Colorado, 2018–20

In 2018–20, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Upper Black Squirrel Creek Ground Water Management District, sampled 48 wells for Phase III of a multiphase plan investigating groundwater quality in the alluvial aquifer of the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin (UBSB), El Paso County, Colorado. Results for samples collected from October to December each year were used to assess spatial and temporal changes in groundwater quality and to differentiate sources of nitrate. Groundwater was predominantly classified as mixed-cation and mixed-anion water type in the aquifer, with variable chemistry along the periphery. Concentrations of constituents in groundwater were generally less than regulatory standards, except for nitrate in four wells. Isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen in nitrate identified four different potential sources or processes affecting nitrate in the alluvial aquifer: naturally occurring nitrate from soils, nitrate from animal and (or) human waste, and an unknown source, along with evidence of denitrification. Pharmaceutical compounds and personal-care products were detected in seven wells, with three wells having multiple detections. Stable isotopes of water indicated variability in seasonality of recharge throughout the UBSB alluvial aquifer. Nitrate concentrations from the 1984 study and the 1996 study were compared to the more recent concentrations in the 2013 study and the 2018–20 study. The northern one-third of the UBSB alluvial aquifer had a statistically significant increase in nitrate concentration from the 2013 study to the 2018–20 study, but no change was shown from the 1984 study to the 1996 study. The opposite was found true for the southern two-thirds of the UBSB alluvial aquifer with no statistically significant difference in nitrate concentration from the 2013 study to the 2018–20 study. Analysis of temporal changes indicated an increase in median and maximum nitrate concentrations from the 2013 study to the 2018–20 study throughout the UBSB alluvial aquifer. Continued sampling of wells in the UBSB would be beneficial to better determine temporal changes in groundwater quality, characterize human effects on water quality, and understand characteristics of the alluvial aquifer pertaining to sustainability of the resource.

Colorado↗

USGS2001

A spatially referenced regression model (SPARROW) for suspended sediment in streams of the Conterminous U.S.

Suspended sediment has long been recognized as an important contaminant affecting water resources. Besides its direct role in determining water clarity, bridge scour and reservoir storage, sediment serves as a vehicle for the transport of many binding contaminants, including nutrients, trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds, a nd numerous pesticides (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000a). Recent efforts to addr ess water-quality concerns through the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process have iden tified sediment as the single most prevalent cause of impairment in the Nation’s streams a nd rivers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000b). Moreover, sediment has been identified as a medium for the tran sport and sequestration of organic carbon, playing a potentia lly important role in understa nding sources and sinks in the global carbon budget (Stallard, 1998). A comprehensive understanding of sediment fate a nd transport is considered essential to the design and implementation of effective plans for sediment management (Osterkamp and others, 1998, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1990). An exte nsive literature addr essing the problem of quantifying sediment transport has produced a nu mber of methods for estimating its flux (see Cohn, 1995, and Robertson and Roerish, 1999, for us eful surveys). The accuracy of these methods is compromised by uncertainty in the concentration measurements and by the highly episodic nature of sediment movement, particul arly when the methods are applied to smaller basins. However, for annual or decadal flux es timates, the methods are generally reliable if calibrated with extended periods of data (Robertson and Roerish, 1999). A substantial literature also supports the Universal Soil Loss Equation (U SLE) (Soil Conservation Service, 1983), an engineering method for estimating sheet and rill erosion, although the empirical credentials of the USLE have recently been questioned (Tri mble and Crosson, 2000). Conversely, relatively little direct evidence is available concerning the fate of sediment. The common practice of quantifying sediment fate with a sediment deliv ery ratio, estimated from a simple empirical relation with upstream basin area, does not artic ulate the relative importance of individual storage sites within a basin (Wolman, 1977). Rates of sediment deposition in reservoirs and flood plains can be determined from empirical measurement s , but only a limited number of sites have been monitored, and net rates of deposition or loss from other potential sinks and sources is largely unknown (Stallard, 1998). In particular, little is known about how much sediment loss from fields ultimately makes its way to stream channels, and how much sediment is subsequently stored in or lost from th e streambed (Meade and Parker, 1985, Trimble and Crosson, 2000). This paper reports on recent progress made to a ddress empirically the question of sediment fate and transport on a national scale. The model pres ented here is based on the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attr ibutes (SPARROW) methodology, fi rst used to estimate the distribution of nutrients in str eams and rivers of the United Stat es, and subsequently shown to describe land and stream processes affecting the delivery of nutrients (Smith and others, 1997, Alexander and others, 2000, Preston and Brakeb ill, 1999). The model makes use of numerous spatial datasets, available at the national level, to explain long-term sediment water-quality conditions in major streams and rivers throughou t the United States. Sediment sources are identified using sediment erosion rates from the National Resources I nventory (NRI) (Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2000) and apportioned over the landscape according to 30- meter resolution land-use information from th e National Land Cover Data set (NLCD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000a). More than 76,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engin eers, 1996) are identified as pot ential sediment sinks. Other, non-anthropogenic sources and sinks are identified using soil in formation from the State Soil Survey Geographic (STATSGO) data base (Schwarz and Alexander, 1995) and spatial coverages representing surficial rock t ype and vegetative cover. The SPA RROW model empirically relates these diverse spatial datasets to estimates of long-term, mean annual sediment flux computed from concentration and flow measurements co llected over the period 1985 -95 from more than 400 monitoring stations maintained by the Na tional Stream Quality Accounting Network (Alexander and others, 1998), the National Wa ter Quality Assessment Program, and U.S. Geological Survey District offices (Turcios and Gray, in press). Th e calibrated model is used to estimate sediment flux for over 60,000 stream segments included in the River Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network (Alexander and others, 1999). SPARROW uses statis tical methods to calibrate a simple, structural model of riverine water quality, one that imposes mass ba lance in accounting for changes in contaminant flux. As applied here, the mass-balance approach facilitates the interpretation of model results in terms of physical processes affecting sediment transport, and makes possible the estimation of various rates of sediment generation and loss associated with stream channels and features of the landscape. The statistical approach provides a basi s for assessing the error of these inferred rates and of the error in extrapolated estimates of sediment flux made for streams in the RF1 network. An important implication of the holistic modeling approach adopted in this analysis is that estimates of sediment production and loss ar e based on, and therefore consistent with, measurements of in-stream flux. Other ancillary information, such as direct measurements of long-term sediment storage and release from rese rvoirs (Steffen, 1996), is incorporated into the analysis by specifying additional equations expl aining these ancillary variables. The imposition of cross-equation constraints affords this info rmation a statistically consistent weight in explaining in-stream sediment flux. Thus, the me thodology described here represents a general framework for synthesizing a wide spectrum of available information relevant to the understanding of sediment fate and transport.

Conterminous United States↗

USGSDate not supplied

Development of stochastic modeling systems using deterministic models and GIS: Principles and a case study in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica

The most important requirements for large-area environmental modeling are a tight integration between models and data, and a close match of the spatial scale at which the model is developed with the scale at which the model is to be applied. To better match the scale of data with that of the model, we propose a set of principles for the development of stochastic modeling systems based on linkage of deterministic models with GIS data. For modeling purposes, a region is usually rasterized into cells and the environmental conditions of those cells are specified by ranges or classes using GIS data layers. It is not necessary to simulate each and every GIS cell in the study area because many cells may have similar environmental conditions and can be grouped together to form cohorts. We define a cohort as the assembly of the cells sharing a unique combination of environmental conditions within the study region. Multiple model simulations can be performed for any given cohort. For each simulation, some of the parameter values can be randomly generated within the specified environmental conditions of the cohort according to a certain statistical distribution which, in turn, can be specified by GIS data layers. By this method the variance and covariance of environmental variables in space and time are integrated into the simulation processes with these modeling systems to make full use of the available data and to assess the uncertainties of the simulated results. An integrated simulation system between CENTURY model and GIS was developed to demonstrate the value of the concepts imbedded in stochastic simulation systems for large area studies.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

Quantifying landscape change in an arctic coastal lowland using repeat airborne LiDAR

Increases in air, permafrost, and sea surface temperature, loss of sea ice, the potential for increased wave energy, and higher river discharge may all be interacting to escalate erosion of arctic coastal lowland landscapes. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired in 2006 and 2010 to detect landscape change in a 100 km 2 study area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain of northern Alaska. We detected statistically significant change (99% confidence interval), defined as contiguous areas (>10 m 2 ) that had changed in height by at least 0.55 m, in 0.3% of the study region. Erosional features indicative of ice-rich permafrost degradation were associated with ice-bonded coastal, river, and lake bluffs, frost mounds, ice wedges, and thermo-erosional gullies. These features accounted for about half of the area where vertical change was detected. Inferred thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion of coastal and river bluffs likely accounted for the dominant permafrost-related degradational processes with respect to area (42%) and volume (51%). More than 300 thermokarst pits significantly subsided during the study period, likely as a result of storm surge flooding of low-lying tundra (<1.4 m asl) as well as the lasting impact of warm summers in the late-1980s and mid-1990s. Our results indicate that repeat airborne LiDAR can be used to detect landscape change in arctic coastal lowland regions at large spatial scales over sub-decadal time periods.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Water-resources-related information for the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District planning area, Wisconsin, 1970-2002

The Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) Corridor Study is a three-phase project designed to improve the understanding of water resources in the stream corridors of the MMSD planning area by initially compiling existing data and using the compiled information to develop 3-year baseline and long-term monitoring plans. This report is one of the products of Phase I of the Corridor Study. A literature review of surface-water-quality, surface water- quantity, and ecology studies conducted from 1970 through 2001 was completed and is summarized in this report. An inventory of Geographic Information System spatial coverages available for the MMSD planning area has been assembled. A database of water, sediment, and tissue (fish, shellfish, and others) chemistry, macroinvertebrates, fish, algae, habitat, geomorphic, and other physical and ecological data was compiled from data sets from MMSD, U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. More than 2.7 million results are available in the MMSD Corridor Study database and the compilation of multiple datasets allows for retrieving data from a central database rather than from each of the source datasets. Data for 1970 through 2002 were collected for the 420-square-mile planning area by various agencies using different field data-collection and laboratory analysis methods. Chemical constituents and ecological components that are important to an urban setting and well represented in the database were selected for further investigation. Each constituent or component is described in this report with some or all of the following: a text summary, map of sampling locations, and in some cases median concentrations, statistical distributions of concentrations by subwatershed, table of summary statistics by subwatershed, and graphs of temporal and (or) seasonal trends. Physical data presented in the report include streamflow, stream stage, and precipitation data. Chemical indicators of water quality presented in the report include field measurements and miscellaneous constituents (pH, alkalinity, specific conductance, hardness, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and chloride), sediment (total suspended solids and suspended sediment), nutrients (total nitrogen, nitrate, Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved phosphorus), trace elements (cadmium, mercury, copper, lead, arsenic, chromium, nickel, and zinc), pesticides (historically used pesticides and pesticides still in use), and polychlorinated biphenyls. Ecological indicators of water quality discussed in the report include community surveys of macroinvertebrates and fish, chlorophyll a concentrations, habitat assessments and channel-measurement data, and fecal coliform and E. coli bacterial counts. In addition to the compilation of the database, a major purpose of this investigation was to identify additional sampling that should be conducted under the baseline monitoring phase, which will be the second phase of the Corridor Study. Additional sampling may include: • Some subwatersheds, such as those in the headwaters. • Emerging contaminants such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), human hormones, organic wastewater contaminants, and other constituents that result from human activity. • E. coli, which can serve as an indicator of health risk to swimmers and other recreational water users. • Pesticides in all media. • PCBs. • Trace elements in water, bed sediment, and tissues (fish, shellfish, and others). • Samples during winter months or during early snowmelt episodes to address constituents such as chloride and some nutrients that have seasonal variability and that may be affected by factors such as road deicing during the winter. • Samples for macroinvertebrate and fish-community data and habitat assessments. • Physical data such as stream-channel cross-section profiles, bridge-scour assessments, flood-plain maps, structures, and shoreline conditions.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1994

Analysis of data on nutrients and organic compounds in ground water in the upper Snake River basin, Idaho and western Wyoming, 1980-91

Nutrient and organic compound data from the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency STORET data bases provided information for development of a preliminary conceptual model of spatial and temporal ground-water quality in the upper Snake River Basin. Nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen; hereafter referred to as nitrate) concentrations exceeded the Federal drinking-water regulation of 10 milligrams per liter in three areas in Idaho" the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, the area north of Pocatello (Fort Hall area), and the area surrounding Burley. Water from many wells in the Twin Falls area also contained elevated (greater than two milligrams per liter) nitrate concentrations. Water from domestic wells contained the highest median nitrate concentrations; water from industrial and public supply wells contained the lowest. Nitrate concentrations decreased with increasing well depth, increasing depth to water (unsaturated thickness), and increasing depth below water table (saturated thickness). Kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations decreased with increasing well depth and depth below water table. The relation between kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations and depth to water was poor. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations in water from wells were correlated among three hydrogeomorphic regions in the upper Snake River Basin, Concentrations of nitrate were statistically higher in the eastern Snake River Plain and local aquifers than in the tributary valleys. There was no statistical difference in total phosphorus concentrations among the three hydrogeomorphic regions. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations were correlated with land-use classifications developed using the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System. Concentrations of nitrate were statistically higher in area of agricultural land than in areas of rangeland. There was no statistical difference in concentrations between rangeland and urban land and between urban land and agricultural land. There was no statistical difference in total phosphorus concentrations among any of the land-use classifications. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations also were correlated with land-use classifications developed by the Idaho Department of Water Resources for the Idaho part of the upper Snake River Basin. Nitrate concentrations were statistically higher in areas of irrigated agriculture than in areas of dryland agriculture and rangeland. There was no statistical difference in total phosphorus concentrations among any of the Idaho Department of Water Resources land-use classifications. Data were sufficient to assess long-term trends of nitrate concentrations in water from only eight wells: four wells north of Burley and four wells northwest of Pocatello. The trend in nitrate concentrations in water from all wells in upward. The following organic compounds were detected in ground water in the upper Snake River Basin: cyanazine, 2,4-D DDT, dacthal, diazinon, dichloropropane, dieldrin, malathion, and metribuzin. Of 211 wells sampled for organic compounds, water from 17 contained detectable concentrations.

Idaho;Montana;Nevada;Utah;Wyoming↗

USGS1997

Daily air temperature interpolated at high spatial resolution over a large mountainous region

Two methods are investigated for interpolating daily minimum and maximum air temperatures ( T min and T max ) at a 1 km spatial resolution over a large mountainous region (830000 km 2 ) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The methods were selected because of their ability to (1) account for the effect of elevation on temperature and (2) efficiently handle large volumes of data. The first method, the neutral stability algorithm (NSA), used the hydrostatic and potential temperature equations to convert measured temperatures and elevations to sea-level potential temperatures. The potential temperatures were spatially interpolated using an inverse-squared-distance algorithm and then mapped to the elevation surface of a digital elevation model (DEM). The second method, linear lapse rate adjustment (LLRA), involved the same basic procedure as the NSA, but used a constant linear lapse rate instead of the potential temperature equation. Cross-validation analyses were performed using the NSA and LLRA methods to interpolate T min and T max each day for the 1990 water year, and the methods were evaluated based on mean annual interpolation error (IE). The NSA method showed considerable bias for sites associated with vertical extrapolation. A correction based on climate station/grid cell elevation differences was developed and found to successfully remove the bias. The LLRA method was tested using 3 lapse rates, none of which produced a serious extrapolation bias. The bias-adjusted NSA and the 3 LLRA methods produced almost identical levels of accuracy (mean absolute errors between 1.2 and 1.3°C), and produced very similar temperature surfaces based on image difference statistics. In terms of accuracy, speed, and ease of implementation, LLRA was chosen as the best of the methods tested.

Columbia River basin↗

USGS2023

A comprehensive plan for in-water sea turtle data collection in the US Gulf of Mexico

The Deepwater Horizon Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group (OO TIG) released a Final Open Ocean Restoration Plan 2 in 2019, which included a project titled Developing a Gulf-wide Comprehensive Plan for In-water Sea Turtle Data Collection. This document, A Comprehensive Plan for In-water Sea Turtle Data Collection in the US Gulf of Mexico (Plan), is the culmination of that OO TIG project. This Plan serves as the OO TIG project’s technical report as well as a framework for a biologically and statistically-sound plan to support coordinated in-water sea turtle data collection in the United States (US) Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to determine sea turtle abundance and population trends. The purpose of this Plan is to act as a guide for collecting biologically and statistically robust, in-water sea turtle data in a comprehensive, coordinated, and standardized fashion in the US GoM. Several sea turtle in-water monitoring efforts are underway in the GoM; however, additional coordination and standardization of these efforts will benefit current restoration and recovery objectives. These efforts will aid in restoration project design, assess long-term effectiveness of restoration activities, and create abundance and distribution baselines across the GoM. This Plan provides guidance for researchers investigating sea turtle abundance and demographic questions, as well as for management agencies and restoration planners. A Steering Committee (SC) was assembled to develop this Plan and to recommend a coordinated approach to the formulation of an improved understanding of sea turtle population baselines in the GoM, from which determination of large-scale population changes, effects of specific threats (e.g., oil spills, anthropogenic hazards), and effects of changes in ocean conditions (e.g., climate change) can later be evaluated. In crafting this guidance, the SC considered species distribution and life history characteristics, spatial and logistical considerations, level of effort required to detect trends, methods available and the pros and cons of each, associated assumptions and biases with suggested monitoring methods, and standardization of data collection. Given the current level of data available, the SC has recommended species monitoring in two main phases in neritic and oceanic waters, with additional recommended sampling for surface pelagic drift communities. The two phases in this Plan focus on 1) monitoring a limited number of sites in the first 5 to 8 years, followed by 2) a refined monitoring design. To support implementation of this Plan, the SC also considered broader programmatic needs, including supplemental data collection, program and data management, potential international partnerships, program expansion, and applications including future technology.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Elk Monitoring Protocol for Lewis and Clark National Historical Park, Version 1.0

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources. Elk were critical to sustaining the members of the Lewis and Clark expedition by providing food and clothing over the winter of 1805-1806. Today, elk viewing opportunities in the park and surrounding region generate broad appeal with the visiting public, which number over 250,000 per year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. This protocol describes procedures for monitoring trends in the use of the Fort Clatsop area by Roosevelt elk. Specific objectives of elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark NHP are to measure the relative use and proportion of area used by elk during winter in the Fort Clatsop Unit of the park, and the rate at which elk are sighted from roads in and around the park. Relative use and the proportion of area used by elk are determined from elk fecal pellet surveys conducted every other year in the Fort Clatsop park unit. Pairs of observers visit a systematic array of permanent plots in the fall to clear them of elk fecal pellets, and return to the plots in late winter to count elk fecal pellets that have accumulated during winter. Half of the subplots are counted by two independent observers, which allows for the estimation of relative use and proportion of area occupied by elk with analyses of detection biases that account for unseen elk pellet groups. Standardized road surveys are conducted in and near the Fort Clatsop park unit three or four times monthly during alternate months. Data from road surveys are used to quantify the rate that park visitors would be expected to see elk, when driving the selected set of routes. The monitoring protocol is based on three field seasons of development and testing. The protocol narrative describes the background, rationale, sampling design, field methods, analytical methods, data management, reporting, personnel requirements, and operational requirements for elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark NHP. The sampling design reflects tradeoffs between statistical and ecological considerations, safety, and current budget considerations. The protocol provides adequate power to detect a doubling or halving of elk use in the Fort Clatsop unit and surrounding areas within 15 years. Step-by-step guidance for planning and completing the monitoring tasks are in the attached standard operating procedures (SOPs). Information on the status and trends of elk use in Lewis and Clark NHP will allow park managers to assess the effects on elk of restoration programs within the park, build community partnerships, and identify potential linkages between regional land use changes and elk use of the Park. Lewis and Clark NHP has an active ecological restoration program that aims to recreate, where possible, ecological conditions that Lewis and Clark encountered. The restoration program includes an extensive exotic plant removal program, wetland restoration, and silvicultural treatments that will hasten development of late-seral conditions in recently acquired forest lands of the Fort Clatsop park unit. In the future, monitoring results can be used to test for spatial associations between ecological restoration treatments and relative use by elk. The park also plans to feature results from elk monitoring prominently in its educational outreach activities to help interpret the historical and current ecological context of the Lewis and Clark story, and engender public support for the park mission and management activities. Although NPS does not manage non-park lands, information about trends in the distribution of elk use will be valuable in public outreach and discussions with other partnering agencies and regional private landowners.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2011

Unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance

Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.

Journal of Statistical Software↗