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Catalogue of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) maternal den locations in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and nearby areas, 1910–2018

This report presents data on the approximate locations and methods of discovery of 530 polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) maternal dens observed in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and neighboring areas from 1910 to 2018, and archived partly by the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, and partly by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Marine Mammals Management, in Anchorage, Alaska. A description of data collection methods and their associated biases, primary data collection time periods, and estimated position uncertainty are provided. Polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas den on sea ice and land. Standardized very high frequency (VHF) aircraft surveys and satellite radio telemetry data provide a general understanding of where polar bears have denned in this region over the past 3 decades. Den observations made during other research activities and anecdotal reports from other government agencies, coastal residents, and industry personnel also are reported. These data on past polar bear maternal den locations are provided to inform decision making by natural resource agencies and for public use.

Alaska↗

Fort Collins Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey's Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) is one of 17 USGS biological science centers nationwide. FORT conducts research and develops technical applications to assist land managers in understanding and managing biological resources, habitats, and ecosystems. Although the majority of FORT's activities are conducted within the 15-state Central Region of the USGS, many FORT projects are national or international in scope. FORT serves all Department of the Interior land management bureaus and other natural resource agencies. In addition, FORT scientists partner with DOI and other federal entities such as CDC, DOE, EPA, NASA, NIH, and USDA to share expertise and resources. FORT also partners with several universities and works cooperatively with states and nongovernmental organizations. Products and services include reports and publications, predictive models and software, maps and GIS products, and other technical assistance in the form of meetings, workshops, training, field visits, and needs assessments.

Fact Sheet↗

Powder X-ray diffraction laboratory, Reston, Virginia

The powder x-ray diffraction (XRD) laboratory is managed jointly by the Eastern Mineral and Environmental Resources and Eastern Energy Resources Science Centers. Laboratory scientists collaborate on a wide variety of research problems involving other U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science centers and government agencies, universities, and industry. Capabilities include identification and quantification of crystalline and amorphous phases, and crystallographic and atomic structure analysis for a wide variety of sample media. Customized laboratory procedures and analyses commonly are used to characterize non-routine samples including, but not limited to, organic and inorganic components in petroleum source rocks, ore and mine waste, clay minerals, and glassy phases. Procedures can be adapted to meet a variety of research objectives.

Virginia↗

USGS response to an urban earthquake, Northridge '94

The urban centers of our Nation provide our people with seemingly unlimited employment, social, and cultural opportunities as a result of the complex interactions of a diverse population embedded in an highly-engineered environment. Catastrophic events in one or more of the natural earth systems which underlie or envelop urban environment can have radical effects on the integrity and survivability of that environment. Earthquakes have for centuries been the source of cataclysmic events on cities throughout the world. Unlike many other earth processes, the effects of major earthquakes transcend all political, social, and geomorphic boundaries and can have decided impact on cities tens to hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter. In modern cities, where buildings, transportation corridors, and lifelines are complexly interrelated, the life, economic, and social vulnerabilities in the face of a major earthquake can be particularly acute. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake was a major test for parts of what many consider the most earthquake-prepared and best-engineered metropolitan region in the United States. While the combined efforts of concerned professionals at all levels of government, academia, and the private sector have produced significant advances in our knowledge of the causes and potential effects of earthquakes, and of ways to reduce their impact, it remains unfortunately true that actual earthquakes provide important opportunities to test those advances in our knowledge. In the hours and days following the Northridge Earthquake, the four Federal member agencies of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) laid out a detailed plan for collecting, analyzing, archiving, and reporting information that would benefit the Nation in future earthquake hazards reduction efforts. Congress provided a special appropriation to FEMA to carry out this plan and FEMA distributed those funds to the four NEHRP agencies. The USGS was responsible for conducting geophysical and geological investigations in support of the NEHRP Post-earthquake Study. For the past 2 years, the USGS has rigorously pursued over 40 tasks focused on the USGS Northridge Earthquake Mission. This document is a summary report of the USGS findings; additional technical reports on specific USGS tasks are appearing in various scientific journals and USGS publications.

California↗

The National Map 2.0 Tactical Plan: "Toward the (Integrated) National Map"

The National Map's 2-year goal, as described in this plan, is to provide a range of geospatial products and services that meet the basic goals of the original vision for The National Map while furthering the National Spatial Data Infrastructure that underpins U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science. To accomplish this goal, the National Geospatial Program (NGP) will acquire, store, maintain, and distribute base map data. The management team for the NGP sets priorities for The National Map in three areas: Data and Products, Services, and Management. Priorities for fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (October 1, 2007 through September 30, 2009), involving the current data inventory, data acquisition, and the integration of data, are (1) incorporating current data from Federal, State, and local organizations into The National Map to the degree possible, given data availability and program resources; (2) collaborating with other USGS programs to incorporate data that support the USGS Science Strategy; (3) supporting the Department of the Interior (DOI) high-priority geospatial information needs; (4) emergency response; (5) homeland security, natural hazards; and (6) graphics products delivery. The management team identified known constraints, enablers, and drivers for the acquisition and integration of data. The NGP management team also identified customer-focused products and services of The National Map. Ongoing planning and management activities direct the development and delivery of these products and services. Management of work flow processes to support The National Map priorities are identified and established through a business-driven prioritization process. This tactical plan is primarily for use as a document to guide The National Map program for the next two fiscal years. The document is available to the public because of widespread interest in The National Map. The USGS collaborates with a broad range of customers and partners who are essential to the success of The National Map, including the science community, State and Federal agencies involved in homeland security, planners and emergency responders at the local level, and private companies. Partner contributions and data remain a primary input and foundation of The National Map. Partnership strategies for each of The National Map's component data themes are outlined in this plan. Because of the importance of The National Map customers, a reassessment of customer needs will be completed during 2008. Results of the assessment will be incorporated into future decisions and priorities. A performance milestone matrix has been developed that contains the full list of milestones, major deliverables, and major tasks. The matrix forms the basis for reporting on accomplishments and issues. However, a number of risks, dependencies, and issues have been identified that could affect meeting milestones in the matrix, such as: the USGS is not the Circular A-16 lead for boundaries, transportation, and structures; availability of sufficient and sustainable funding; availability of Federal workforce and contractors with necessary skills, and numerous competing customer and stakeholder requirements.

Open-File Report↗

Integrating refugia modeling and decision science to support climate-adaptive conservation in the Sierra Nevada

To reduce detrimental impacts of anthropogenic change, natural resource managers often look for place-based solutions to minimize biodiversity loss. Climate-change refugia, areas buffered from contemporary climate change, can enable the persistence of valued natural resources and prolong the benefits of conservation action. Here we combine climate-change refugia modeling with structured decision-making to inform conservation decisions for the endangered foothill yellow-legged frog ( Rana boylii ) in the Sierra Nevada region of California, USA. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to identify areas projected to remain suitable into the 2040s and the 2080s under an RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, as well as areas projected to transition to suitable habitat during this time. We integrated these projections with a structured decision-making process to align management strategies with refugia model outcomes for R. boylii in a subset of the study area. Habitat suitability for R. boylii is projected to decline in the study area by over 90% by the 2040s and by a subsequent 15% by the 2080s. Climate-change refugia are projected to occupy ~7% of present-day suitable habitat, with high agreement between GCMs and model timesteps. Areas projected to transition to suitable habitat within the existing R. boylii clade boundaries are negligible. Collectively, climate-change refugia modeling and structured decision-making provide opportunities to improve resource allocation and empower conservation practitioners in climate change adaptation for at-risk species.

California↗

Greater Platte River Basins - Science to sustain ecosystems and communities

The Greater Platte River Basins (GPRB), located in the heartland of the United States, provides a collaborative opportunity for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners to understand the sustainability of natural and managed ecosystems under changing climate and resource requirements.The Greater Platte River Basins, an area of about 140,000 square miles, sustains thousands of acres of lakes and wetlands, which provide a staging and resting area for the North American Central Flyway. Part of the GPRB is within the U.S. Corn Belt, one of the most productive agricultural ecosystems on Earth. Changes in water and land use, changing patterns of snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains, drought, and increasing demands for irrigation have reduced flows in the Platte River. These changes raise questions about the sustainability of the region for both wildlife and agriculture.The USGS and partners are developing a science strategy that will help natural-resource managers address and balance the needs of this region.

Fact Sheet↗

The web of life: Natural science information on the Internet

As society has come to equate economic prosperity with the health of our living resources, national science policy has called for the development of a comprehensive digital knowledge base to support informed decision making and wise resource management. The Internet and World Wide Web demonstrate the earliest stages of this evolving virtual library of the natural world, offering an increasing array of high-quality, innovative resources and services in the natural science arena. This article discusses the leading providers of natural science information on the Internet and highlights some of the exemplary resources they are delivering online. The discussion concludes with a brief discussion of the role of the librarian in developing the Web of natural science knowledge online and provides a short Webliography of starting points for further exploration of this subject area. PDF

Journal of Library Administration↗

Strategic directions for U.S. Geological Survey water science, 2012-2022 - Observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the Nation

Executive Summary This report expands the Water Science Strategy that was begun in the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). The report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Strategic Science Plan is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences . The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 130-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report. Priority actions focus on the following: Improve integrated science planning for water. Expand and enhance water-resource monitoring networks. Characterize the water cycle through development of state-of-the-art 3-D/4-D hydrogeologic framework models at multiple scales. Clarify the linkage between human water use (engineered hydrology) and the water cycle (natural hydrology). Advance ecological flow science. Provide flood-inundation science and information. Develop rapid deployment teams for water-related emergencies. Conduct integrated watershed assessment, research, and modeling. Deliver water data and analyses to the Nation. The body of the report is presented as a hierarchal set of 5 goals, 14 objectives, and 27 strategic actions that the USGS should undertake to advance water science through year 2022. The goals deal with: Providing society the information it needs regarding the amount and quality of water in all components of the water cycle at high temporal and spatial resolution, nationwide; Advancing our understanding of processes that determine water availability; Predicting changes in the quantity and quality of water resources in response to changing climate, population, land use, and management scenarios; Anticipating and responding to water-related emergencies and conflicts; and Delivering timely hydrologic data, analyses, and decision-support tools seamlessly across the Nation to support water-resource decisions. Scientific information produced on water resources would be without value if it were not communicated to society in a fashion that can inform decisions and actions. Therefore, the chapter following the goals describes how the USGS should inform, involve, and educate society about the science it produces. This includes discussions on local outreach and the use of social media for effective communication. This report concludes with a chapter devoted to the crosscutting science issues of the Water Mission Area with the other USGS Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and Minerals, Environmental Health Science, and Natural Hazards. Not one of these Mission Areas stands alone—all must work together and integrate their actions to fulfill the USGS science mission for the future. This final chapter identifies the important linkages that must be realized and maintained for this integration to occur.

Open-File Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey Appalachian region integrated science workshop proceedings, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, October 22-26, 2001

Some of nature's most magnificent creations on Earth are the picturesque landscape and the terrestrial and aquatic inhabitants of the Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States. Mother Nature has been kind to the region but man, often, has not. The Appalachian mountains and valleys have been home to a variety of human cultures, dating back approximately 12,000 years. A series of Native American peoples, including most recently the Cherokee Nation, inhabited the region prior to European settlement which began in the 1600's. All of these peoples have had the desire to reap the benefits of the land. Current and historic use of the land ranges from mineral extraction to agricultural development to timber production to industrial and residential development, all of which have now threatened the landscape. Many individuals and organizations desire to save the awe and beauty of the Appalachians for the generations to come, in a way that is environmentally and economically sustainable. They have tried for years to raise alarms that this area is threatened and worth the attention of all who are interested in an effort of restitution and preservation. Residents, environmental groups, land managers, scientists, business groups, and the multitude of visitors who pass through the national parks and other public lands located within the Appalachians have raised these same alarms. There is a need to not only identify the issues resulting from anthropogenic pressures on the landscape, but also to collect the information and conduct the science that will allow land managers and policy makers to become better informed and better able to execute their responsibilities.

Appalachia↗

Analytical group decision making in natural resources: Methodology and application

Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups have provided insights into the impediments to effective group processes and on techniques that can be applied in a group context. Nevertheless, little integration and few applications of these results have occurred in resource management decision processes, where formal groups are integral, either directly or indirectly. A group decision-making methodology is introduced as an effective approach for temporary, formal groups (e.g., workshops). It combines the following three components: (1) brainstorming to generate ideas; (2) the analytic hierarchy process to produce judgments, manage conflict, enable consensus, and plan for implementation; and (3) a discussion template (straw document). Resulting numerical assessments of alternative decision priorities can be analyzed statistically to indicate where group member agreement occurs and where priority values are significantly different. An application of this group process to fire research program development in a workshop setting indicates that the process helps focus group deliberations; mitigates groupthink, nondecision, and social loafing pitfalls; encourages individual interaction; identifies irrational judgments; and provides a large amount of useful quantitative information about group preferences. This approach can help facilitate scientific assessments and other decision-making processes in resource management.

Forest Science↗

Effects of tidally varying river flow on entrainment of juvenile salmon into Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs

Survival of juvenile salmonids in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) varies by migration route, and thus the proportion of fish that use each route affects overall survival through the Delta. Understanding factors that drive routing at channel junctions along the Sacramento River is therefore critical to devising management strategies that maximize survival. Here, we examine entrainment of acoustically tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs from the Sacramento River. Because these sloughs divert fish away from the downstream entrances of the Delta Cross Channel and Georgiana Slough (where fish access the low-survival region of the interior Delta), management actions to increase fish entrainment into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs are being investigated to increase through-Delta survival. Previous studies suggest that fish generally “go with the flow”—as net flow into a divergence increases, the proportion of fish that enter that divergence correspondingly increases. However, complex tidal hydrodynamics at sub-daily time-scales may be decoupled from net flow. Therefore, we modeled routing of acoustic tagged juvenile salmon as a function of tidally varying hydrodynamic data, which was collected using temporary gaging stations deployed between March and May of 2014. Our results indicate that discharge, the proportion of flow that entered the slough, and the rate of change of flow were good predictors of an individual’s probability of being entrained. In addition, interactions between discharge and the proportion of flow revealed a non-linear relationship between flow and entrainment probability. We found that the highest proportions of fish are likely to be entrained into Steamboat Slough and Sutter Slough on the ascending and descending limbs of the tidal cycle, when flow changes from positive to negative. Our findings characterize how patterns of entrainment vary with tidal flow fluctuations, providing information critical for understanding the potential effect of management actions (e.g., fish guidance structures) to modify routing probabilities at this location. Main Content View Larger 1 Sponsored by the Delta Science Program and the UC Davis Muir Institute ABSTRACT Survival of juvenile salmonids in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) varies by migration route, and thus the proportion of fish that use each route affects overall survival through the Delta. Understanding factors that drive routing at channel junctions along the Sacramento River is therefore critical to devising management strategies that maximize survival. Here, we examine entrainment of acoustically tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs from the Sacramento River. Because these sloughs divert fish away from the downstream entrances of the Delta Cross Channel and Georgiana Slough (where fish access SFEWS Volume 19 | Issue 2 | Article 4 https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss2art4 * Corresponding author: rperry@usgs.gov 1 Western Fisheries Research Center US Geological Survey Cook, WA 98605 USA 2 California Water Science Center US Geological Survey Sacramento, CA 95819 USA 3 Current address: Mid-Columbia Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office Yakima Basin Program US Fish and Wildlife Service Yakima, WA 98903 USA the low-survival region of the interior Delta), management actions to increase fish entrainment into Sutter and Steamboat sloughs are being investigated to increase through-Delta survival. Previous studies suggest that fish generally “go with the flow”—as net flow into a divergence increases, the proportion of fish that enter that divergence correspondingly increases. However, complex tidal hydrodynamics at sub-daily time-scales may be decoupled from net flow. Therefore, we modeled routing of acoustic tagged juvenile salmon as a function of tidally varying hydrodynamic data, which was collected using temporary gaging stations deployed between March and May of 2014. Our results indicate that discharge, the proportion of flow that entered the slough, and the rate of change of flow were good predictors of an individual’s probability of being entrained. In addition, interactions between discharge and the proportion of flow revealed a non-linear relationship between flow and entrainment probability. We found that the highest proportions of fish are likely to be entrained into Steamboat Slough and Sutter Slough on the ascending and descending limbs of the tidal cycle, when flow changes from positive to negative. Our findings characterize how patterns of entrainment vary with tidal flow fluctuations, providing information critical for understanding the potential effect of management RESEARCH Effects of Tidally Varying River Flow on Entrainment of Juvenile Salmon into Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs Jason G. Romine 1,3 , Russell W. Perry* 1 , Paul R. Stumpner 2 , Aaron R. Blake 2 , Jon R. Burau 2 2 VOLUME 19, ISSUE 2, ARTICLE 4 actions (e.g., fish guidance structures) to modify routing probabilities at this location. KEY WORDS Telemetry, juvenile salmon, migration routing, survival INTRODUCTION The Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter referred to as “the Delta”) is a complex series of channels and embayments in west central California of the United States. The Delta has undergone drastic transformation through construction of dikes, levees, reclaimed land, dredged canals and cuts, and water export projects (Nichols et al. 1986). The loss of habitat coupled with introduction of non-native piscivorous fishes has led to the decline of several salmonid stocks that utilize the Delta (Lindley 2009; National Marine Fisheries Service 2014). The physical complexity of the Delta poses significant challenges for understanding how juvenile salmon negotiate the complex channel network and survive in different migration routes. Yet such information is critical for understanding how water-management actions, such as operation of water diversions, influence survival of juvenile salmon. Through-Delta survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon that emigrate from the Sacramento River ranges from 10% to 80%, depending on river flow and migration route (Perry et al. 2018). The Delta can be broken down into four primary routes: (1) Sacramento River, (2) Steamboat and Sutter sloughs, (3) Georgiana Slough, and (4) Delta Cross Channel (DCC). Fish that remain in the Sacramento River consistently have the highest survival (Perry et al. 2010, 2013, 2018). However, fish that enter the interior Delta—the region to the south of the Sacramento River (Figure 1)—have the lowest survival among all routes and survive at less than half the rate of fish in the Sacramento River, likely as a result of longer migration times and exposure to non-native predators (Newman and Brandes 2010; Perry et al. 2018). On average, fish that migrate through Steamboat and Sutter sloughs exhibit survival similar to fish that remain in the Sacramento River at high flows but have lower survival at low flows (Perry et al. 2018). Because of differences in survival among migration routes, the proportion of fish that use each route affects the total survival of the population. Therefore, understanding the drivers behind fish routing in the Delta is imperative to inform management actions that help in the recovery of imperiled salmonid populations in the Central Valley. For example, Perry et al. (2013) found that total survival through the Delta could be increased by up to 7 percentage points by eliminating entrainment into Georgiana Slough and the DCC. These findings led to investigation of management actions to reduce entrainment into the DCC (Plumb et al. 2016) and Georgiana Slough (Perry et al. 2014). Both physical and non-physical barriers have been tested at the entrance to Georgiana Slough divergence (Perry et al. 2014; Romine et al. 2016). A non-physical barrier was able to reduce entrainment to the interior Delta through Georgiana Slough (Perry et al. 2014), but a floating fish-guidance structure reduced entrainment to a lesser extent (Romine et al. 2016). Research and engineering solutions to minimize entrainment have focused on the Georgiana Slough divergence, the DCC divergence, and the Old River divergence in the San Joaquin River (Buchanan et al. 2013; SJRG 2013). However, there has been little focus on understanding fish routing dynamics at other primary river junctions in the Delta, such as Sutter and Steamboat sloughs. Sutter and Steamboat sloughs diverge from the Sacramento about 10 km upstream from the DCC and Georgiana slough, and represent the first major junction that juvenile salmon encounter as they enter the Delta from the Sacramento River ( Figure 1 ). Because Sutter and Steamboat sloughs are upstream of the entrance to the interior Delta via the DCC and Georgiana Slough (Figure 1), juvenile salmon that enter Sutter and Steamboat sloughs avoid entrainment into the interior Delta where survival is low. Thus, management actions to increase entrainment could increase overall.

Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta↗

Statistical facilitation in environmental science: Integrating results from complementary statistical analyses can improve ecological interpretations

Professionals working in biological conservation seek to understand, manage, and restore populations of native organisms using many techniques. A common approach for this discipline is using long-term data collections to inform decision making. However, several quantitative issues complicate statistical analysis of monitoring datasets and can reduce the utility of results for conservation decision making. Integrating results from multiple analyses applied to the same dataset (i.e., approaching the same biological problem using different techniques) is one way to address concerns related to field data that violate statistical assumptions. This process allows data analysts, researchers, and managers to assemble insights based on the weight of evidence. Here we tested whether three different statistical techniques [(1) multiple logistic regression on original data, (2) multiple logistic regression on standardized data (i.e., mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1), and (3) random forest analysis] identified a similar hierarchy for selecting natural and anthropogenic habitat regressors. Our examination of how environmental variables affected Plains Minnow ( Hybognathus placitus ), a state-threatened fish, is relevant to other taxa and locations. We gained useful information from redundancies (i.e., agreements across analyses). New directions also emerged by addressing ambiguities (i.e., disagreements among results across analyses). When multiple analyses were integrated into one ecological story, a clearer interpretation emerged. Viewing different statistical tests as facilitators that provide mutual advantages can advance the understanding and application of statistical analyses applied to non-experimental field datasets.

Kansas↗

Utah Science Activities, Update 2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a bureau of the U.S. Department of the Interior, serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. The USGS has become a world leader in the natural sciences thanks to our scientific excellence and responsiveness to society's needs. This newsletter describes some of the current and recently completed USGS earth-science activities in Utah. As an unbiased, multi-disciplinary science organization that focuses on biology, geography, geology, and water, we are dedicated to the timely, relevant, and impartial study of the landscape, our natural resources, and the natural hazards that threaten us. Learn more about our goals and priorities for the coming decade in the USGS Science Strategy at http://www.usgs.gov/science_strategy/ .

General Information Product↗

Best practices for incorporating climate change science into Department of the Interior analyses, consultations, and decision making

The purpose of this document is to provide technical guidance, practical application examples, and resource lists for those who conduct, manage, and/or interpret technical workflows within the Department of the Interior. This document is intended to support implementation of Department of the Interior policy 526 DM 1 and establish best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision making. The Earth’s climate is an interconnected system that distributes energy, heat, and water around the planet. Due to human-driven increases in long-lived greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is now changing. For Departmental decision-making purposes, assuming a static, unchanging baseline climate is no longer consistent with current knowledge about the climate system. There are uncertainties about future climate and how resources or assets (RoAs) will respond to new conditions. To depict the possibilities, the global climate science community develops scenarios and models to explore how future climate may respond to socioeconomic and technological development in the world. Principles for informing policy development, planning and decisions, and regulatory processes using climate change science must: 1) consider the effects of future climate change, 2) characterize the risks, and 3) characterize the uncertainties. Best practices include: Use multiple scenarios to assess risks from a range of plausible societal pathways. When constraints prevent the use of multiple scenarios or if decision makers are risk averse, ensure that the chosen scenario considers higher risk outcomes. This is particularly important for large investments or irreversible decisions and reduces the chances of overconfident decision making. Use multiple climate models within each scenario to account for the range of outcomes due to model uncertainty. Do not rely solely on a single model or an ensemble average. Use relevant climate data . Use a time-period for model projections of the future climate change consistent with the relevant timeframe of the policy, action, or decision being considered. Historical observations are useful for understanding past conditions and climate trends for the next several years, but not beyond the next decade. Consult with climate data and modeling experts to assess which data and model resources are most appropriate for any given application. Clearly describe key analysis uncertainties (including with any climate observations, models, and scenarios used), and how they were addressed in the analysis and/or decision process. This ensures transparency and learning among analysts and decision makers.

Report↗

Flood-inundation maps for a 6.5-mile reach of the Kentucky River at Frankfort, Kentucky

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.5-mile reach of Kentucky River at Frankfort, Kentucky, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Frankfort Office of Emergency Management. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Kentucky River at Lock 4 at Frankfort, Kentucky (station no. 03287500). Current conditions for the USGS streamgage may be obtained online at the USGS National Water Information System site (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/inventory?agency_code=USGS&site_no=03287500). In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the Kentucky River reach by using HEC–RAS, a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current (2013) stage-discharge relation for the Kentucky River at Lock 4 at Frankfort, Kentucky, in combination with streamgage and high-water-mark measurements collected for a flood event in May 2010. The calibrated model was then used to calculate 26 water-surface profiles for a sequence of flood stages, at 1-foot intervals, referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from a stage near bankfull to the elevation that breached the levees protecting the City of Frankfort. To delineate the flooded area at each interval flood stage, the simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area by using geographic information system software. The DEM consisted of bare-earth elevations within the study area and was derived from a Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) dataset having a 5.0-foot horizontal resolution and an accuracy of 0.229 foot. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stages from USGS streamgages and forecasted stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and local residents with critical information for flood response activities such as evacuations, road closures, and postflood recovery efforts.

Kentucky↗

Assessing ecological integrity of Ozark rivers to determine suitability for protective status

Preservation of extraordinary natural resources, protection of water quality, and restoration of impaired waters require a strategy to identify and protect least-disturbed streams and rivers. We applied two objective, quantitative methods to determine stream ecological integrity of headwater reaches of 10 Ozark rivers, 5 with Wild and Scenic River federal protective status. Thirty-four variables representing macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage characteristics, in-stream habitat, riparian vegetation, water quality, and watershed attributes were quantified for each river and analyzed using two multivariate approaches. The first approach, cluster and discriminant analyses, identified two groups of river with only one variable (% forested watershed) reliably distinguishing groups. Our second approach employed ordinal scaling to compare variables for each river to conceptually ideal conditions that were developed as a composite of optimal attributes among the 10 rivers. The composite distance of each river from ideal was then calculated using a unidimensional ranking technique. Two rivers without Wild and Scenic River designation ranked highest relative to ideal (highest ecological integrity), and two others, also without designation, ranked most distant from ideal (lowest ecological integrity). Fish density, number of intolerant fish species, and invertebrate density were influential biotic variables for scaling. Contributing physical variables included riparian forest cover, water nitrate concentration, water turbidity, percentage of forested watershed, percentage of private land ownership, and road density. These methods provide a framework for refinement and application in other regions to facilitate the process of establishing least-disturbed reference conditions and identifying rivers for protection and restoration. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Environmental Management↗