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Finite-element modelling of physics-based hillslope hydrology, Keith Beven, and beyond

Keith Beven is a voice of reason on the intelligent use of models and the subsequent acknowledgement/assessment of the uncertainties associated with environmental simula-tion. With several books and hundreds of papers, Keith’s work is widespread, well known, and highly referenced. Four of Keith’s most notable contributions are the iconic TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979), classic papers on macropores and preferential flow (Beven and Germann, 1982, 2013), two editions of the rainfall-runoff modelling bible (Beven, 2000a, 2012), and the selection/commentary for the first volume from the Benchmark Papers in Hydrology series (Beven, 2006b). Remarkably, the thirty-one papers in his benchmark volume, entitled Streamflow Generation Processes, are not tales of modelling wizardry but describe measurements designed to better understand the dynamics of near-surface systems (quintessential Keith). The impetus for this commentary is Keith’sPhD research (Beven, 1975), where he developed a new finite-element model and conducted concept-development simu-lations based upon the processes identified by, for example, Richards (1931), Horton (1933), Hubbert (1940), Hewlett and Hibbert (1963), and Dunne and Black (1970a,b). Readers not familiar with the different mechanisms of streamflow generation are referred to Dunne (1978).

Hydrological Processes↗

Evaluation of hydrologic impact of an irrigation curtailment program in the Upper Klamath Lake Basin using Landsat satellite data

Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) is the source of the Klamath river that flows through southern Oregon and northern California. The UKL basin is home to two endangered species and provides water for 81,000+ ha (200,000+ acres) of irrigation on the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) Klamath Project located downstream of the UKL basin. Irrigated agriculture also occurs along the tributaries to UKL. During 2013–2016, water right calls resulted in various levels of curtailment of irrigation diversions from the tributaries to UKL. However, information on the extent of curtailment, how much irrigation water was saved, and its impact on the UKL is unknown. In this study, we combined Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) data obtained from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model with gridded precipitation and USGS station discharge data to evaluate the hydrologic impact of the curtailment program. Analysis was performed for five base years (2004, 2006, 2008-2010) and four target years (2013-2016) over irrigated areas above UKL. Our results indicated that the impact of the curtailment program over the June to September time-period was highest during 2013 and declined in each of the following years. The total on-field water savings were approximately 60 hm3 in 2013 and 2014, 44 hm3 in 2015, and 32 hm3 in 2016. The instream water flow change or extra water available (EWA) were found at 92, 68, 45, and 26 hm3 respectively for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Most water savings came from pasture and wetlands. Alfalfa showed the most decline in water use among grain crops. The resulting EWA from the curtailment contributed to a maximum of 19% of the lake inflows and 50% of the lake volume. This study presents the use of Landsat-based ETa and other remote sensing datasets for evaluating water-related impacts of the irrigation curtailment program.

Upper Klamath Lake Basin↗

Integrating observations and models to determine the effect of seasonally frozen ground on hydrologic partitioning in alpine hillslopes in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

This study integrated spatially distributed field observations and soil thermal models to constrain the impact of frozen ground on snowmelt partitioning and streamflow generation in an alpine catchment within the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research site, Colorado, USA. The study area was comprised of two contrasting hillslopes with notable differences in topography, snow depth and plant community composition. Time-lapse electrical resistivity surveys and soil thermal models enabled extension of discrete soil moisture and temperature measurements to incorporate landscape variability at scales and depths not possible with point measurements alone. Specifically, heterogenous snowpack thickness (~0–4 m) and soil volumetric water content between hillslopes (~0.1–0.45) strongly influenced the depths of seasonal frost, and the antecedent soil moisture available to form pore ice prior to freezing. Variable frost depths and antecedent soil moisture conditions were expected to create a patchwork of differing snowmelt infiltration rates and flowpaths. However, spikes in soil temperature and volumetric water content, as well as decreases in subsurface electrical resistivity revealed snowmelt infiltration across both hillslopes that coincided with initial decreases in snow water equivalent and early increases in streamflow. Soil temperature, soil moisture and electrical resistivity data from both wet and dry hillslopes showed that initial increases in streamflow occurred prior to deep soil water flux. Temporal lags between snowmelt infiltration and deeper percolation suggested that the lateral movement of water through the unsaturated zone was an important driver of early streamflow generation. These findings provide the type of process-based information needed to bridge gaps in scale and populate physically based cryohydrologic models to investigate subsurface hydrology and biogeochemical transport in soils that freeze seasonally.

Colorado↗

Identifying storm flow pathways in a rainforest catchment using hydrological and geochemical modelling

The hydrological model TOPMODEL is used to assess the water balance and describe flow paths for the 9??73 ha Lutz Creek Catchment in Central Panama. Monte Carlo results are evaluated based on their fit to the observed hydrograph, catchment-averaged soil moisture and stream chemistry. TOPMODEL, with a direct-flow mechanism that is intended to route water through rapid shallow-soil flow, matched observed chemistry and discharge better than the basic version of TOPMODEL and provided a reasonable fit to observed soil moisture and wet-season discharge at both 15-min and daily time-steps. The improvement of simulations with the implementation of a direct-flow component indicates that a storm flow path not represented in the original version of TOPMODEL plays a primary role in the response of Lutz Creek Catchment. This flow path may be consistent with the active and abundant pipeflow that is observed or delayed saturation overland flow. The 'best-accepted' simulations from 1991 to 1997 indicate that around 41% of precipitation becomes direct flow and around 10% is saturation overland flow. Other field observations are needed to constrain evaporative and groundwater losses in the model and to characterize chemical end-members posited in this paper. Published in 2004 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

A modular approach to addressing model design, scale, and parameter estimation issues in distributed hydrological modelling

A modular approach to model design and construction provides a flexible framework in which to focus the multidisciplinary research and operational efforts needed to facilitate the development, selection, and application of the most robust distributed modelling methods. A variety of modular approaches have been developed, but with little consideration for compatibility among systems and concepts. Several systems are proprietary, limiting any user interaction. The US Geological Survey modular modelling system (MMS) is a modular modelling framework that uses an open source software approach to enable all members of the scientific community to address collaboratively the many complex issues associated with the design, development, and application of distributed hydrological and environmental models. Implementation of a common modular concept is not a trivial task. However, it brings the resources of a larger community to bear on the problems of distributed modelling, provides a framework in which to compare alternative modelling approaches objectively, and provides a means of sharing the latest modelling advances. The concepts and components of the MMS are described and an example application of the MMS, in a decision-support system context, is presented to demonstrate current system capabilities. Copyright ?? 2002 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

Hydrological response to timber harvest in northern Idaho: Implications for channel scour and persistence of salmonids

The potential for forest harvest to increase snowmelt rates in maritime snow climates is well recognized. However, questions still exist about the magnitude of peak flow increases in basins larger than 10 km2 and the geomorphic and biological consequences of these changes. In this study, we used observations from two nearly adjacent small basins (13 and 30 km2) in the Coeur d'Alene River basin, one with recent, relatively extensive, timber harvest, and the other with little disturbance in the last 50 years to explore changes in peak flows due to timber harvest and their potential effects on fish. Peak discharge was computed for a specitic rain-on-snow event using a series of physical models that linked predicted values of snowmelt input to a runoff-routing model. Predictions indicate that timber harvest caused a 25% increase in the peak flow of the modelled event and increased the frequency of events of this magnitude from a 9-year recurrence interval to a 3-6-year event. These changes in hydrologic regime, with larger discharges at shorter recurrence intervals, are predicted to increase the depth and frequency of streambed scour, causing up to 15% added mortality of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) embryos. Mortality from increased scour, although not catastrophic, may have contributed to the extirpation of this species from the Coeur d'Alene basin, given the widespread timber harvest that occurred in this region. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

Variability in hydrologic response to wildfire between snow zones in forested headwaters

Rising temperatures and shifting fire regimes in the western United States are pushing fires upslope into areas of deep winter snowpack, where we have little knowledge of the likely hydrologic impacts of wildfire. We quantified differences in the timing and magnitude of stormflow responses to summer rainstorms among six catchments of varying levels of burn severity and seasonal snowpack cover for years 1–3 after the 2020 Cameron Peak fire. Our objectives were to (1) examine whether responsiveness, magnitude, and timing of stormflow responses to rainfall vary between burned and unburned catchments and between snow zones, and (2) identify the factors that affect these responses. We evaluated whether differences in storm hydrograph peak flow, total flow, stage rise, and lag to peak time differed by snow zone and burn category using generalised linear models. Additional predictors in these models are the maximum 60-min rainfall intensity for each storm, the cumulative potential water deficit prior to the storm, and the year post-fire. These models showed that the high snow zone (HSZ) has higher total stormflow than the low snow zone (LSZ), likely due to the higher soil moisture content in that area. In both snow zones, the biggest driver of the magnitude of the stormflow response was MI 60 . Burn category did not have a clear impact on stormflow response in the HSZ, but it did impact stage rise at the severely burned catchment in the LSZ. This was the only site that had widespread overland flow post-fire. These results demonstrate that the stormflow responses to fire vary between snow zones, indicating a need to account for elevation and snow persistence in post-fire risk assessments.

Colorado↗

Gypsies in the palace: Experimentalist's view on the use of 3-D physics-based simulation of hillslope hydrological response

As a fundamental unit of the landscape, hillslopes are studied for their retention and release of water and nutrients across a wide range of ecosystems. The understanding of these near-surface processes is relevant to issues of runoff generation, groundwater-surface water interactions, catchment export of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, contaminants (e.g. mercury) and ultimately surface water health. We develop a 3-D physics-based representation of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed experimental hillslope using the TOUGH2 sub-surface flow and transport simulator. A recent investigation of sub-surface flow within this experimental hillslope has generated important knowledge of threshold rainfall-runoff response and its relation to patterns of transient water table development. This work has identified components of the 3-D sub-surface, such as bedrock topography, that contribute to changing connectivity in saturated zones and the generation of sub-surface stormflow. Here, we test the ability of a 3-D hillslope model (both calibrated and uncalibrated) to simulate forested hillslope rainfall-runoff response and internal transient sub-surface stormflow dynamics. We also provide a transparent illustration of physics-based model development, issues of parameterization, examples of model rejection and usefulness of data types (e.g. runoff, mean soil moisture and transient water table depth) to the model enterprise. Our simulations show the inability of an uncalibrated model based on laboratory and field characterization of soil properties and topography to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response or the distributed water table within the soil profile. Although not an uncommon result, the failure of the field-based characterized model to represent system behaviour is an important challenge that continues to vex scientists at many scales. We focus our attention particularly on examining the influence of bedrock permeability, soil anisotropy and drainable porosity on the development of patterns of transient groundwater and sub-surface flow. Internal dynamics of transient water table development prove to be essential in determining appropriate model parameterization. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

The role of remote sensing observations and models in hydrology: The science of evapotranspiration

Over 15 years ago, Morton (1994) summarized the state of evapotranspiration (ET) research pessimistically: ‘There have been few significant advances in our knowledge of evaporation on an environmental scale over the past four decades, a state of affairs linked to the current sterility of hydrology and related environmental sciences. Furthermore, almost none of the advances have been used successfully in practice.’ He did not foresee the rapid progress in the ensuing years. These advances can be attributed largely to three convergent themes: 1) technical innovation; 2) synergy between disciplines; and 3) expressed need. The papers in this special issue address all of these three themes on remote sensing methods for ET estimation.

Hydrological Processes↗

Use of the chloride ion in determining hydrologic-basin water budgets - A 3-year case study in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, U.S.A.

Measurement of chloride concentration and water equivalent in precipitation and recharge at a site can be extrapolated to determine available moisture in a nearby basin. This method also may be extrapolated to a basin with similar climatic characteristics if precipitation, vegetation, and topographic data are available. The average accuracy of the total of evaporation, recharge, and runoff (assuming no storage) was about 10% of total precipitation. Soil-moisture measurements indicate the entire 10% error in moisture balance can be attributed to annual changes in storage. Data requirements for the method are considerably less than data requirements for energy-budget methods to determine available moisture. Potential applications of the method to hydrologic problem-solving are: 1. (1) Estimating total available moisture from chloride concentrations in groundwater or surface water or both. 2. (2) Modeling paleoclimate scenarios and evaluating their correctness by comparison with paleo-groundwater chloride concentrations. 3. (3) Providing an independent comparison for water budgets obtained by energy-budget methods. Obviously the method cannot be applied readily to systems with a lithologic source of chloride. Most systems primarily consisting of tuff, intrusive volcanic rock, nonmarine sediments, quartzite, and other metamorphic rocks will be suitable for application of the model.

Colorado↗

Relation of salinity and selenium in shallow groundwater to hydrologic and geochemical processes, Western San Joaquin Valley, California

Salinity and selenium concentrations in shallow groundwater of the western San Joaquin Valley, California, are related to the geomorphology and hydrology of the alluvial fans. The highest salinity and selenium concentrations in shallow groundwater occur in alluvium deposited by ephemeral streams and at the margins of the major alluvial fans, where there were naturally saline, fine-grained soils. Low-to-moderate salinity and selenium concentrations in shallow groundwater are associated with upper and middle areas of the major alluvial fans deposited by intermittent streams. Areas with the most naturally saline soils have been irrigated in the last 40 years. These are now the areas of highest salinity and selenium concentrations in the shallow groundwater. Present-day (1986) groundwater salinity is spatially correlated with natural soil salinity in these areas. Isotopic data indicate that the highest salinity and selenium concentrations in groundwater present at low altitudes resulted from evaporative concentration when the water table was shallow.

California↗

Sediment concentration versus water discharge during single hydrologic events in rivers

Relations between sediment concentration ( C ) and water discharge ( Q ) for a hydrologic event, such as a flood, are studied qualitatively by analyzing "smoothed" temporal graphs (discharge and concentration vs. time) in terms of mode, spread, and skewness. Comparing C Q ratios at a given discharge on the rising and falling limbs of the discharge hydrograph provides a consistent, reliable method for categorizing C-Q relations. Five common classes of such relations are single-valued (straight or curved), clockwise loop, counterclockwise loop, single-valued plus a loop, and figure eight. Temporal-graph mode and skewness influence the type of relation, whereas temporal-graph spread affects the details of the particular C-Q relation (its graphical breadth, shape, orientation, and plotted location). Field examples of the various types of relations are given, including varieties that heretofore have received little attention, such as the figure eight. Explanations for each type of C-Q relation are discussed.

Journal of Hydrology↗

An operational GLS model for hydrologic regression

Recent Monte Carlo studies have documented the value of generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to estimate empirical relationships between streamflow statistics and physiographic basin characteristics. This paper presents a number of extensions of the GLS method that deal with realities and complexities of regional hydrologic data sets that were not addressed in the simulation studies. These extensions include: (1) a more realistic model of the underlying model errors; (2) smoothed estimates of cross correlation of flows; (3) procedures for including historical flow data; (4) diagnostic statistics describing leverage and influence for GLS regression; and (5) the formulation of a mathematical program for evaluating future gaging activities.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Channel evolution and hydrologic variations in the Colorado River basin: Factors influencing sediment and salt loads

Suspended-sediment and dissolved-solid (salt) loads decreased after the early 1940s in the Colorado Plateau portion of the Colorado River basin, although discharge of major rivers - the Colorado, Green and San Juan - did not change significantly. This decline followed a period of high sediment yield caused by arroyo cutting. Reduced sediment loads have previously been explained by a change in sediment sampling procedures or changes in climate, land-use and conservation practices. More recent work has revealed that both decreased sediment production and sediment storage in channels of tributary basins produced the decline of sediment and salt loads. Sediment production and sediment storage are important components of incised-channel evolution, which involves sequential channel deepening, widening and finally floodplain formation. Accordingly, the widespread arroyo incision of the late nineteenth century resulted initially in high sediment loads. Since then, loads have decreased as incised channels (arroyos) have stabilized and begun to aggrade. However, during the 1940s, a period of low peak discharges permitted vegetational colonization of the valley floors, which further reduced sediment loads and promoted channel stabilization. This explanation is supported by experimental studies and field observations. Both geomorphic and hydrologic factors contributed to sediment storage and decreased sediment and salt loads in the upper Colorado River basin.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

Hydrologic properties of coal-beds in the Powder River Basin, Montana: II. Aquifer test analysis

A multiple well aquifer test to determine anisotropic transmissivity was conducted on a coal-bed in the Powder River Basin, southeastern Montana, as part of a multidisciplinary investigation to determine hydrologic conditions of coal-beds in the area. For the test, three wells were drilled equidistant from and at different angles to a production well tapping the Flowers–Goodale coal seam, a 7.6-m thick seam confined at a depth of about 110 m. The test was conducted by air-lift pumping for 9 h, and water levels were monitored in the three observation wells using pressure transducers. Drawdown data collected early in the test were affected by interporosity flow between the coal fracture network and the matrix, but later data were suitable to determine aquifer anisotropy, as the slopes of the late-time semilog time-drawdown curves are nearly identical, and the zero-drawdown intercepts are different. The maximum transmissivity, trending N87°E, is 14.9 m 2 /d, and the minimum transmissivity 6.8 m 2 /d, giving an anisotropy ratio of 2.2:1. Combined specific storage of the fractures and matrix is 2×10 −5 /m, and of the fracture network alone 5×10 −6 /m. The principal direction of the anisotropy tensor is not aligned with the face cleats, but instead is aligned with another fracture set and with dominant east–west tectonic compression. Results of the test indicate that the Flowers–Goodale coal-bed is more permeable than many coals in the Powder River Basin, but the anisotropy ratio and specific storage are similar to those found for other coal-beds in the basin.

Montana↗

Hydrologic properties of coal beds in the Powder River Basin, Montana I. Geophysical log analysis

As part of a multidisciplinary investigation designed to assess the implications of coal-bed methane development on water resources for the Powder River Basin of southeastern Montana, six wells were drilled through Paleocene-age coal bedsalong a 31-km east–west transect within the Tongue River drainage basin. Analysis of geophysical logs obtained in these wells provides insight into the hydrostratigraphic characteristics of the coal and interbedded siliciclastic rocks and their possible interaction with the local stress field. Natural gamma and electrical resistivity logs were effective in distinguishing individual coal beds. Full-waveform sonic logs were used to determine elastic properties of the coal and an attendant estimate of aquifer storage is in reasonable agreement with that computed from a pumping test. Inspection of magnetically oriented images of the borehole walls generated from both acoustic and optical televiewers and comparison with coal cores infer a face cleat orientation of approximately N33°E, in close agreement with regional lineament patterns and the northeast trend of the nearby Tongue River. The local tectonic stress field in this physiographic province as inferred from a nearby 1984 earthquake denotes an oblique strike-slip faulting regime with dominant east–west compression and north–south extension. These stress directions are coincident with those of the primary fracture sets identified from the televiewer logs and also with the principle axes of the drawdown ellipse produced from a complementary aquifer test, but oblique to apparent cleat orientation. Consequently, examination of these geophysical logs within the context of local hydrologic characteristics indicates that transverse transmissivity anisotropy in these coals is predominantly controlled by bedding configuration and perhaps a mechanical response to the contemporary stress field rather than solely by cleat structure.

Montana↗

Linkages between hydrology and seasonal variations of nutrients and periphyton in a large oligotrophic subalpine lake

Periphyton is important to lake ecosystems, contributing to primary production, nutrient cycling, and benthic metabolism. Increases in periphyton growth in lakes can be indicative of changes in water quality, shifts in ecosystem structure, and increases in nutrient fluxes. In oligotrophic lakes, conservationists are interested in characterizing the influence of hydrological drivers on excessive periphyton growth along nearshore areas. We collected nutrient samples bi-weekly from groundwater and surface water during a 9-month monitoring period to evaluate the timing and availability of nutrients to eulittoral periphyton in Lake Tahoe. Groundwater discharge rates were measured synoptically using seepage meters and estimated indirectly using continuous head gradient measurements and aquifer properties estimated by slug tests. The discharge measurements made from the seepage meter measurements provide information about the spatial variability perpendicular from shore along and the change in groundwater discharge due to wave action. Algal biomass sampled from substrates and observed using underwater photographs were used to correlate seasonal growth and nutrient concentrations in groundwater and lake water. Results indicate that groundwater and nutrient discharge are temporally variable due to seasonal changes in recharge within the watershed, wave action, and lake stage. Groundwater discharge was enhanced by the seasonally-low lake stage and episodic recharge caused by precipitation falling as rain in the watershed. Increases in dissolved phosphorus and nitrate in the lake during winter are attributed to groundwater discharge and correlates to increases in algal biomass in the nearshore area. Results indicate that nutrient-rich groundwater discharge appears to stimulate seasonal periphyton blooms along the eulittoral zone of Lake Tahoe.

California↗

Relating hydroclimatic change to streamflow, baseflow, and hydrologic partitioning in the Upper Rio Grande Basin, 1980 to 2015

Understanding how changing climatic conditions affect streamflow volume and timing is critical for effective water management. In the Rio Grande Basin of the southwest U.S., decreasing snowpack, increasing minimum temperatures, and decreasing streamflow have been observed in recent decades, but the effects of hydroclimatic changes on baseflow, or groundwater discharge to streams, have not been investigated. In this study, we determine how trends in precipitation, snowpack accumulation, and snowmelt rate relate to total streamflow, baseflow, and the hydrologic partitioning of baseflow and runoff at 12 sites in the Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) during 1980 to 2015. Total streamflow was partitioned into baseflow and runoff components at a daily time step using conductivity-mass-balance hydrograph separation. Trends in annual total streamflow, baseflow, runoff, baseflow index, precipitation, snowmelt rate, and peak snow water equivalent (SWE) were evaluated from 1980 to 2015 using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test. Results indicate that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, contributing an average of 49% of total discharge upstream of Albuquerque, NM. During 1980 to 2015, decreasing trends in total streamflow occurred at 9 of 12 sites and were almost always associated with decreases in baseflow, suggesting that baseflow volumes can respond to changing climatic and anthropogenic conditions within decades. Decreasing snowmelt rates were more frequently associated with decreases in baseflow and total streamflow than were decreases in precipitation and peak SWE, highlighting the importance of snowmelt rate as a process controlling streamflow generation. If snow accumulation and snowmelt rates continue to decrease in the future, results indicate that total streamflow and baseflow volumes will decline, and that baseflow will become a larger fraction of total streamflow in the URGB.

Colorado, New Mexico↗