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Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗

Chesapeake Bay: A case study in resiliency and restoration

Chesapeake Bay (“mother of waters” or the “great shellfish Bay” in Algonquin), is the largest estuary in the United States and arguably the best studied estuary in the world. Chesapeake Bay is immense, with the main stem stretching 200 nautical miles (315 km) from the mouth of the Susquehanna River to its terminus at the Atlantic Ocean and an overall watershed encompassing 64,000 mi2 (165,000 km2). The mainstem, tributaries, and Bay islands form thousands of miles of coastline (Figure 1). Because of its prominence in estuarine science and ecosystem restoration, developing a working knowledge of Chesapeake Bay science and restoration is important. Hopefully, this overview will whet the appetite to learn more from information available both in the scientific literature and on the Chesapeake Bay Program website www.chesapeakebay.net

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Estuarine Geomorphology, Circulation, and Mixing

To understand the processes affecting the distribution and cycles of particulates, pollutants, nutrients, and organisms in estuaries, it is insufficient to focus solely on the biological and chemical aspects of the processes. Water sources and movements (e.g. evaporation, precipitation, riverine discharge, submarine ground water discharge, wetland hydrology, and tidal exchange) as well as other hydrodynamic aspects of coastal systems, including circulation patterns, stratification, mixing and flushing, must also be considered. When hydrodynamic changes occur quickly relative to biological, geological, and chemical transformations, they become the dominant controlling factors of many ecological processes in estuaries (Officer 1980), and it is now widely recognized that a thorough understanding of the marine estuarine ecology requires comprehensive knowledge and integration of physical processes affecting the system. Using the terminology of a shallow-water oceanographer, this chapter aims to organize, classify, and describe some of these important physical characteristics and processes.

Book chapter↗

Introduction to the Delta Smelt flow alteration white papers

The management of the quantity and timing of freshwater flow into and through the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) is a perennial source of controversy in California. It is well known that freshwater outflow is a major environmental driver in estuarine ecosystems, including the SFE. However, the estuary is also the hub of California’s water distribution system, which supplies water to over 25 million Californians and a multibillion-dollar agricultural industry. This tension between water supply and maintaining flows to maintain environmental quality is at the core of the controversy.

California↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Gulf of Mexico American Oyster

The American or eastern oyster (Crassostrea virrinica [Gmelin]), a bivalve in the family Ostreidae, is an important commercia and recreational species along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America and other areas (U.S. Pacific coast and Hawaii) where it has been introduced (Galtsoff 1964). It evolved over the last 25 million years (Miocene and Pliocene epochs) from an ancestral, Atlantic-Pacific species that also gave rise to the Central American oyster of the Pacific coast, Crassostrea corteziensis (Hertlein) (Stenzel 1971). It evolved to fill a eurytopic niche in coastal estuaries where it forms massive reefs in nearshore bays, sounds, lagoons, and river mouths. Its existence depends on suitable substratum (cultch and firm bottom sediments) and acceptable sal-inity conditions. The location and distribution of oyster reefs in a salt marsh-estuari ne ecosystem are not acci denta 1; rather, they result from the interacti on of many bi 01 ogi ca 1, chemica1, geo1ogi ca1, and phys i ca 1 processes (Butler 1954a; Marshall 1954; Bahr and Lanier 1981).

FWS/OBS↗

Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO 2 . Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO 2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

Estuaries↗

Comparison of the basin-scale effect of dredging operations and natural estuarine processes on suspended sediment concentration

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data from San Pablo Bay, California, were analyzed to compare the basin-scale effect of dredging and disposal of dredged material (dredging operations) and natural estuarine processes. The analysis used twelve 3-wk to 5-wk periods of mid-depth and near-bottom SSC data collected at Point San Pablo every 15 min from 1993-1998. Point San Pablo is within a tidal excursion of a dredged-material disposal site. The SSC data were compared to dredging volume, Julian day, and hydrodynamic and meteorological variables that could affect SSC. Kendall's ??, Spearman's ??, and weighted (by the fraction of valid data in each period) Spearman's ??w correlation coefficients of the variables indicated which variables were significantly correlated with SSC. Wind-wave resuspension had the greatest effect on SSC. Median water-surface elevation was the primary factor affecting mid-depth SSC. Greater depths inhibit wind-wave resuspension of bottom sediment and indicate greater influence of less turbid water from down estuary. Seasonal variability in the supply of erodible sediment is the primary factor affecting near-bottom SSC. Natural physical processes in San Pablo Bay are more areally extensive, of equal or longer duration, and as frequent as dredging operations (when occurring), and they affect SSC at the tidal time scale. Natural processes control SSC at Point San Pablo even when dredging operations are occurring.

California↗

Hydrographic characterization of two tidal creeks with implications for watershed land use, flushing times, and benthic production

Many coastal ecosystems are undergoing anthropogenic stress from large increases in population and urbanization. In many regions changes in freshwater and material inputs to the coastal zone are altering the biogeochemical and biological capacities of ecosystems. Despite increased watershed inputs, large tidal volumes and flushing indicative of macrotidal estuaries can modulate the fate of introduced materials masking some of the symptoms of eutrophication. The Land Use Coastal Ecosystem Study (LU-CES) examined linkages between land use and environmental properties of Malind and Okatee Creeks in South Carolina from 2001 to 2004. The objectives of this particular study were to assess the hydrography of the two macrotidal creek ecosystems, explore differences in dissolved oxygen (DO), and develop a better understanding of the variations in primary and benthic secondary production in southeastern creek ecosystems. Depth, pH, salinity, and DO were reduced and more variable in Malind Creek than in Okatee Creek, although both creeks had strong semidiurnal frequencies in salinity time signatures. While time series analyses of DO saturation in Malind Creek revealed a dominant semidiurnal pattern, Okatee Creek had a distinctly diel DO pattern. The strongly semidiurnal fluctuations in DO and reduced flushing time indicated that biological processes were not fast enough to influence DO in Malind Creek. The Okatee Creek system had a much greater storage volume, a wider marsh, and a dominant 25-h DO frequency. These attributes contributed to an estimated 8-10 times more phytoplankton-based carbon in Okatee Creek and twice the annual benthic production. As expected from their proximity to the upland, low surface area, and high organic content, both ecosystems were net heterotrophic. This fundamental understanding of tidal creek hydrography is being used to help define linkages among differential watershed land uses, flushing characteristics, and levels of biological production in coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States.

South Carolina↗

The effect of nitrogen loading on a brackish estuarine faunal community: A stable isotope approach

Coastal ecosystems worldwide face increased nutrient enrichment from shoreline and watershed development and atmospheric pollution. We investigated the response of the faunal community of a small microtidal estuary dominated by Ruppia maritima (widgeon grass) in Maine, United States, to increased nitrogen loading using an in situ mesocosm enrichment experiment. Community response was characterized by assessing quantitative shifts in macroin-vertebrate community composition and identifying changes in food web structure using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of producers and consumers. The community was dominated by brackish water invertebrates including midge larvae, oligochaetes, damselfly larvae, amphipods, and ostracods. Experimental nutrient additions resulted in significantly lower densities of herbivorous chironomids and predatory damselflies and greater densities of deposit feeding oligochaetes. Grazing midge larvae (Chironomidae: Dicrotendipes, Cricotopus) consumed epiphytic algae under both natural and enriched conditions. Deposit feeding Chironomus was dependent on allochthonous sources of detritus under natural conditions and exhibited a shift to autochthonous sources of detritus under enriched conditions. Predatory Enallagma primarily consumed grazing chironomids under all but the highest loading conditions. Experimental nutrient loading resulted in an increase in generalist deposit feeders dependent on autochthonous sources of detritus.

Estuaries↗

Carbon budget for a subtropical seagrass dominated coastal lagoon: How important are seagrasses to total ecosystem net primary production?

It has been assumed that because seagrasses dominate macrophyte biomass in many estuaries they also dominate primary production. We tested this assumption by developing three carbon budgets to examine the contribution of autotrophic components to the total ecosystem net primary production (TENPP) of Lower Laguna Madre, Texas. The first budget coupled average photosynthetic parameters with average daily irradiance to calculate daily production. The second budget used average photosynthetic parameters and hourly in situ irradiance to estimate productivity. The third budget integrated temperature-adjusted photosynthetic parameters (using Q 10 =2) and hourly in situ irradiance to estimate productivity. For each budget TENPP was calculated by integrating production from each autotroph based on the producers’ areal distribution within the entire Lower Laguna Madre. All budgets indicated that macroalgae account for 33–42% of TENPP and seagrasses consistently accounted for about 33–38%. The contribution by phytoplankton was consistently about 15–20%, and the contribution from the benthic microalgae varied between 8% and 36% of TENPP, although this may have been underestimated due to our exclusion of the within bed microphytobenthos component. The water column over the seagrass beds was net heterotrophic and consequently was a carbon sink consuming between 5% and 22% of TENPP, TENPP ranged between 5.41×10 10 and 2.53×10 11 g C yr −1 , depending on which budget was used. The simplest, most idealized budget predicted the highest TENPP, while the more realistic budgets predicted lower values. Annual production rates estimated using the third budget for Halodule urightii and Thalassia testudinum compare well with field data. Macroalgae and microalgae contribute 50–60% of TENPP, and seagrass may be more important as three-dimensional habitat (i.e., structure) than as a source of organic carbon to the water column in Lower Laguna Madre.

Texas↗

Use of multiple chemical tracers to define habitat use of Indo-Pacific mangrove crab, Scylla serrata (Decapoda: Portunidae)

The mangrove or mud crab, Scylla serrata, is an important component of mangrove fisheries throughout the Indo-Pacific. Understanding crab diets and habitat use should assist in managing these fisheries and could provide additional justification for conservation of the mangrove ecosystem itself. We used multiple chemical tracers to test whether crab movements were restricted to local mangrove forests, or extended to include adjacent seagrass beds and reef flats. We sampled three mangrove forests on the island of Kosrae in the Federated States of Micronesia at Lelu Harbor, Okat River, and Utwe tidal channel. Samples of S. serrata and likely food sources were analyzed for stable carbon (??13C), nitrogen (??15N), and sulfur (??34S) isotopes. Scylla serrata tissues also were analyzed for phosphorus (P), cations (K, Ca, Mg, Na), and trace elements (Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, and B). Discriminant analysis indicated that at least 87% of the crabs remain in each site as distinct populations. Crab stable isotope values indicated potential differences in habitat use within estuaries. Values for ??13C and ??34S in crabs from Okat and Utwe were low and similar to values expected from animals feeding within mangrove forests, e.g., feeding on infauna that had average ??13C values near -26.5???. In contrast, crabs from Lelu had higher ?? 13C and ??34S values, with average values of -21.8 and 7.8???, respectively. These higher isotope values are consistent with increased crab foraging on reef flats and seagrasses. Given that S. serrata have been observed feeding on adjacent reef and seagrass environments on Kosrae, it is likely that they move in and out of the mangroves for feeding. Isotope mixing model results support these conclusions, with the greatest mangrove ecosystem contribution to S. serrata diet occurring in the largest mangrove forests. Conserving larger island mangrove forests (> 1 km deep) appears to support crab foraging activities. ?? 2007 Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

Increased terrestrial to ocean sediment and carbon fluxes in the northern Chesapeake Bay associated with twentieth century land alteration

We calculated Chesapeake Bay (CB) sediment and carbon fluxes before and after major anthropogenic land clearance using robust monitoring, modeling and sedimentary data. Four distinct fluxes in the estuarine system were considered including (1) the flux of eroded material from the watershed to streams, (2) the flux of suspended sediment at river fall lines, (3) the burial flux in tributary sediments, and (4) the burial flux in main CB sediments. The sedimentary maximum in Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen marked peak land clearance (~1900 a.d.). Rivers feeding CB had a total organic carbon (TOC)/total suspended solids of 0.24??0.12, and we used this observation to calculate TOC fluxes from sediment fluxes. Sediment and carbon fluxes increased by 138-269% across all four regions after land clearance. Our results demonstrate that sediment delivery to CB is subject to significant lags and that excess post-land clearance sediment loads have not reached the ocean. Post-land clearance increases in erosional flux from watersheds, and burial in estuaries are important processes that must be considered to calculate accurate global sediment and carbon budgets. ?? 2008 Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

Effects of the herbicide diuron on cordgrass (Spartina foliosa) reflectance and photosynthetic parameters

Early indicators of salt marsh plant stress are needed to detect stress before it is manifested as changes in biomass and coverage. We explored a variety of leaf-level spectral reflectance and fluorescence variables as indicators of stress in response to the herbicide diuron. Diuron, a Photosystem II inhibitor, is heavily used in areas adjacent to estuaries, but its ecological effects are just beginning to be recognized. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed Spartina foliosa , the native cordgrass in California salt marshes, to two levels of diuron. After plant exposure to diuron for 28 days, all spectral reflectance indices and virtually all fluorescence parameters indicated reduced pigment and photosynthetic function, verified as reduced CO 2 assimilation. Diuron exposure was not evident, however, in plant morphometry, indicating that reflectance and fluorescence were effective indicators of sub-lethal diuron exposure. Several indices (spectral reflectance index ARI and fluorescence parameters EQY, Fo, and maximum rETR) were sensitive to diuron concentration. In field trials, most of the indices as well as biomass, % cover, and canopy height varied predictably and significantly across a pesticide gradient. In the field, ARI and Fo regressed most significantly and strongly with pesticide levels. The responses of ARI and Fo in both the laboratory and the field make these indices promising as sensitive, rapid, non-destructive indicators of responses of S. foliosa to herbicides in the field. These techniques are employed in remote sensing and could potentially provide a link between landscapes of stressed vegetation and the causative stressor(s), which is crucial for effective regulation of pollution.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

A simulation of historic hydrology and salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling paleoecologic assemblage data with regression models

Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between 5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

The American crocodile in Biscayne Bay, Florida

Intensive crocodile monitoring programs conducted during the late 1970s and early 1980s in southern Florida resulted in an optimistic outlook for recovery of the protected species population. However, some areas with suitable crocodile habitat were not investigated, such as Biscayne Bay and the mainland shorelines of Barnes and Card Sounds. The objective of our study was to determine status and habitat use of crocodiles in the aforementioned areas. Spotlight and nesting surveys were conducted from September 1996 to December 2005. The results revealed annual increases in the number of crocodiles. Crocodiles preferred protected habitats such as canals and ponds. Fewer crocodiles were observed in higher salinity water. The distribution and abundance of crocodilians in estuaries is directly dependent on timing, amount, and location of freshwater delivery, providing an opportunity to integrate habitat enhancement with ongoing ecosystem restoration and management activities.

Florida↗

Integrating scales of seagrass monitoring to meet conservation needs

We evaluated a hierarchical framework for seagrass monitoring in two estuaries in the northeastern USA: Little Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts, and Great South Bay/Moriches Bay, New York. This approach includes three tiers of monitoring that are integrated across spatial scales and sampling intensities. We identified monitoring attributes for determining attainment of conservation objectives to protect seagrass ecosystems from estuarine nutrient enrichment. Existing mapping programs provided large-scale information on seagrass distribution and bed sizes (tier 1 monitoring). We supplemented this with bay-wide, quadrat-based assessments of seagrass percent cover and canopy height at permanent sampling stations following a spatially distributed random design (tier 2 monitoring). Resampling simulations showed that four observations per station were sufficient to minimize bias in estimating mean percent cover on a bay-wide scale, and sample sizes of 55 stations in a 624-ha system and 198 stations in a 9,220-ha system were sufficient to detect absolute temporal increases in seagrass abundance from 25% to 49% cover and from 4% to 12% cover, respectively. We made high-resolution measurements of seagrass condition (percent cover, canopy height, total and reproductive shoot density, biomass, and seagrass depth limit) at a representative index site in each system (tier 3 monitoring). Tier 3 data helped explain system-wide changes. Our results suggest tiered monitoring as an efficient and feasible way to detect and predict changes in seagrass systems relative to multi-scale conservation objectives.

Massachusetts↗

Broad timescale forcing and geomorphic mediation of tidal marsh flow and temperature dynamics

Tidal marsh functions are driven by interactions between tides, landscape morphology, and emergent vegetation. Less often considered are the diurnal pattern of tide extremes and seasonal variation of solar insolation in the mix of tidal marsh driver interactions. This work demonstrates how high-frequency hydroperiod and water temperature variability emerges from disparate timescale interactions between tidal marsh morphology, tidal harmonics, and meteorology in the San Francisco Estuary. We compare the tidal and residual flow and temperature response of neighboring tidal sloughs, one possessing natural tidal marsh morphology, and one that is modified for water control. We show that the natural tidal marsh is tuned to lunar phase and produces tidal and fortnight water temperature variability through interacting tide, meteorology, and geomorphic linkages. In contrast, temperature variability is dampened in the modified slough where overbank marsh plain connection is severed by levees. Despite geomorphic differences, a key finding is that both sloughs are heat sinks in summer by latent heat flux-driven residual upstream water advection and sensible and long-wave heat transfer. The precession of a 335-year tidal harmonic assures that these dynamics will shift in the future. Water temperature regulation appears to be a key function of natural tidal sloughs that depends critically on geomorphic mediation. We investigate approaches to untangling the relative influence of sun versus tide on residual water and temperature transport as a function of system morphology. The findings of this study likely have ecological consequences and suggest physical process metrics for tidal marsh restoration performance.

California↗

Causes and consequences of ecosystem service regionalization in a coastal suburban watershed

The demand for ecosystem services and the ability of natural ecosystems to provide those services evolve over time as population, land use, and management practices change. Regionalization of ecosystem service activity, or the expansion of the area providing ecosystem services to a population, is a common response in densely populated coastal regions, with important consequences for watershed water and nitrogen (N) fluxes to the coastal zone. We link biophysical and historical information to explore the causes and consequences of change in ecosystem service activity—focusing on water provisioning and N regulation—from 1850 to 2010 in a coastal suburban watershed, the Ipswich River watershed in northeastern Massachusetts, USA. Net interbasin water transfers started in the late 1800s due to regionalization of water supply for use by larger populations living outside the Ipswich watershed boundaries, reaching a peak in the mid-1980s. Over much of the twentieth century, about 20 % of river runoff was diverted from reaching the estuary, with greater proportions during drought years. Ongoing regionalization of water supply has contributed to recent declines in diversions, influenced by socioecological feedbacks resulting from the river drying and fish kills. Similarly, the N budget has been greatly perturbed since the suburban era began in the 1950s due to food and lawn fertilizer imports and human waste release. However, natural ecosystems are able to remove most of this anthropogenic N, mitigating impacts on the coastal zone. We propose a conceptual model whereby the amount and type of ecosystem services provided by coastal watersheds in urban regions expand and contract over time as regional population expands and ecosystem services are regionalized. We hypothesize that suburban watersheds can be hotspots of ecosystem service sources because they retain sufficient ecosystem function to still produce services that meet increasing demand from the local population and nearby urban centers. Historical reconstruction of ecosystem service activity provides a perspective that may help to better understand coupled human–natural system processes and lead to more sustainable management of coastal ecosystems.

Massachusetts↗