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USGS2020

Social Values for Ecosystem Services, version 4.0 (SolVES 4.0)—Documentation and user manual

The geographic information system tool, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES), was developed to incorporate quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem service assessments. SolVES 4.0 provides an open-source version of SolVES, which was designed to assess, map, and quantify the social values of ecosystem services. Social values—the perceived, nonmarket values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, such as aesthetics and recreation—can be evaluated for various stakeholder groups. These groups are distinguishable by factors such as their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses (for example, motorized recreation and logging). As with previous versions, SolVES 4.0 derives a quantitative 10-point, social-values metric—the value index—from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public value and preference surveys. The tool also calculates metrics characterizing the underlying environment, such as average distance to water and dominant landcover. SolVES 4.0 has been developed with Python using a QGIS user interface and a PostgreSQL database for required data. SolVES is integrated with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps and offer robust statistical models describing the relation between the value index and explanatory environmental variables. A model’s goodness of fit to a primary study area and its potential performance in transferring social values to similar areas using value-transfer methods can be evaluated. SolVES 4.0 provides an improved open-source, public-domain tool for decision makers and researchers to evaluate the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding the tradeoffs among ecosystem services in a variety of biophysical and social contexts including mountain, forest, coastal, riparian, agricultural, and urban environments around the globe.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2016

Trophic magnification of organic chemicals: A global synthesis

Production of organic chemicals (OCs) is increasing exponentially, and some OCs biomagnify through food webs to potentially toxic levels. Biomagnification under field conditions is best described by trophic magnification factors (TMFs; per trophic level change in log-concentration of a chemical) which have been measured for more than two decades. Syntheses of TMF behavior relative to chemical traits and ecosystem properties are lacking. We analyzed >1500 TMFs to identify OCs predisposed to biomagnify and to assess ecosystem vulnerability. The highest TMFs were for OCs that are slowly metabolized by animals (metabolic rate k M < 0.01 day –1 ) and are moderately hydrophobic (log K OW 6–8). TMFs were more variable in marine than freshwaters, unrelated to latitude, and highest in food webs containing endotherms. We modeled the probability that any OC would biomagnify as a combined function of K OW and k M . Probability is greatest (&sim;100%) for slowly metabolized compounds, regardless of K OW , and lowest for chemicals with rapid transformation rates ( k M > 0.2 day –1 ). This probabilistic model provides a new global tool for screening existing and new OCs for their biomagnification potential.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2007

Natural landscape and stream segment attributes influencing the distribution and relative abundance of riverine smallmouth bass in Missouri

Protecting and restoring fish populations on a regional basis are most effective if the multiscale factors responsible for the relative quality of a fishery are known. We spatially linked Missouri's statewide historical fish collections to environmental features in a geographic information system, which was used as a basis for modeling the importance of landscape and stream segment features in supporting a population of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu. Decision tree analyses were used to develop probability-based models to predict statewide occurrence and within-range relative abundances. We were able to identify the range of smallmouth bass throughout Missouri and the probability of occurrence within that range by using a few broad landscape variables: the percentage of coarse-textured soils in the watershed, watershed relief, and the percentage of soils with low permeability in the watershed. The within-range relative abundance model included both landscape and stream segment variables. As with the statewide probability of occurrence model, soil permeability was particularly significant. The predicted relative abundance of smallmouth bass in stream segments containing low percentages of permeable soils was further influenced by channel gradient, stream size, spring-flow volume, and local slope. Assessment of model accuracy with an independent data set showed good concordance. A conceptual framework involving naturally occurring factors that affect smallmouth bass potential is presented as a comparative model for assessing transferability to other geographic areas and for studying potential land use and biotic effects. We also identify the benefits, caveats, and data requirements necessary to improve predictions and promote ecological understanding. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2007

Evaluating nephrotoxicity of high-molecular-weight organic compounds in drinking water from lignite aquifers

High-molecular-weight organic compounds such as humic acids and/or fulvic acids that are naturally mobilized from lignite beds into untreated drinking-water supplies were suggested as one possible cause of Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN) and cancer of the renal pelvis. A lab investigation was undertaken in order to assess the nephrotoxic potential of such organic compounds using an in vitro tissue culture model. Because of the infeasibility of exposing kidney tissue to low concentrations of organics for years in the lab, tangential flow ultrafiltration was employed to hyperconcentrate samples suitable for discerning effects in the short time frames necessitated by tissue culture systems. Effects on HK-2 kidney cells were measured using two different cell proliferation assays (MTT and alamarBlue). Results demonstrated that exposure of kidney tissue to high-molecular-weight organics produced excess cell death or proliferation depending on concentration and duration of exposure. Copyright ?? Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗

USGS1999

Evaluating sediment chemistry and toxicity data using logistic regression modeling

This paper describes the use of logistic-regression modeling for evaluating matching sediment chemistry and toxicity data. Contaminant- specific logistic models were used to estimate the percentage of samples expected to be toxic at a given concentration. These models enable users to select the probability of effects of concern corresponding to their specific assessment or management objective or to estimate the probability of observing specific biological effects at any contaminant concentration. The models were developed using a large database (n = 2,524) of matching saltwater sediment chemistry and toxicity data for field-collected samples compiled from a number of different sources and geographic areas. The models for seven chemicals selected as examples showed a wide range in goodness of fit, reflecting high variability in toxicity at low concentrations and limited data on toxicity at higher concentrations for some chemicals. The models for individual test endpoints (e.g., amphipod mortality) provided a better fit to the data than the models based on all endpoints combined. A comparison of the relative sensitivity of two amphipod species to specific contaminants illustrated an important application of the logistic model approach.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2010

The Border Environmental Health Initiative: Investigating the transboundary Santa Cruz watershed

In 2004 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched the Border Environmental Health Initiative (BEHI), a major project encompassing the entire U.S.-Mexico border region. In 2009, a study of the Santa Cruz River Watershed (SCW), located in the border region of Arizona and Sonora, Mexico, was initiated as part of the BEHI. In this borderland region of the desert Southwest, human health and the ecosystems on which humans rely depend critically on limited water resources. Surface water is scarce during much of the year, and groundwater is the primary source for industrial, agricultural, and domestic use. In order to identify risks to water resources in the SCW, and the potential consequences to riparian ecosystems and ultimately human health, the USGS is using an interdisciplinary and integrative approach that incorporates the expertise of geographers, hydrologists, biologists, and geologists to track organic and inorganic contaminants and their effects from sources to sinks in sediment, water, plants, and animals. Existing groundwater and surface-water models are being used and modified to assess contaminant and sediment transport.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2015

A framework for effective use of hydroclimate models in climate-change adaptation planning for managed habitats with limited hydrologic response data

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981–2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule’s Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3–100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10–20 to 40–60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

California↗

USGS1996

Small watershed studies: Analytical approaches for understanding ecosystem response to environmental change

Biogeochemical studies in small watersheds provide an analytical approach to understand how ecosystems respond to natural climatic variations and human-induced environmental change. Small watersheds, usually less than 5 km2, are small enough to permit characterization and understanding of ecosystem processes within relatively simple, homogeneous biological and physical settings; yet they are large enough to incorporate more complex processes and element cycles than can be studied at plot scales. Watersheds comprise discrete hydrochemical environments allowing quantification of hydrologic, element, and energy budgets. Element budgets, or mass balances, can be quantified as the difference between the mass of a solute that enters a watershed in wet and dry deposition and leaves a watershed in streamflow. Element budgets are primary tools used to investigate biogeochemical processes. Monitoring various aspects of element budgets to assess ecosystem health and stability is analogous to measuring the pulse or blood chemistry of a patient. Monitoring streamwater chemistry, basic climate, soil, and biotic variables provide a means to integrate complex biogeochemical processes and evaluate trends in water quality. Small watershed studies provide a scientific basis to develop predictive models of watershed function. Major emphases of small watershed studies include investigation of hydrologic and chemical responses to natural climate variation, anthropogenic stressors, and alternate forest-management practices. The nature and significance of biogeochemical research in small watersheds is reviewed by Moldan and Cerny (1994). The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, and other federal agencies support several long-term small watershed studies to provide insight into a variety of ecosystem processes. Long-term records are essential to distinguish trends resulting from natural climatic variations or other stressors. The following sites, with noted periods of records, are examples of intensively studied forested watersheds in eastern USA supported by federal agencies: ■ Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, (1939-present), Swank and Crossley (1988). ■ Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, (1956-present), Bormann and Likens (1979). ■ Sleepers River Research Watershed, Vermont, (1958-present), Shanley et al. (1995). ■ Walker Branch Watershed, Tennessee, (1967-present), Johnson and Van Hook (1989). ■ Catoctin Mountains Research Site, Maryland, (1982-present), Rice and Bricker (1995). ■ Catskill Stream Network, New York, (1983- present), Murdoch and Stoddard (1992). ■ Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, (1985-present), Huntington et al. (1993). Small watershed studies also provide essential baseline information for understanding variations in water quality and element cycling in "pristine" ecosystems that can be used as benchmarks to evaluate anthropogenic impacts and alternate watershed management practices. This paper provides examples of how analytical tools developed through watershed research provide insight into ecosystem processes and can contribute to the management of watershed resources.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Investigating the morphological and genetic divergence of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) populations in lakes of arctic Alaska

Polymorphism facilitates coexistence of divergent morphs (e.g., phenotypes) of the same species by minimizing intraspecific competition, especially when resources are limiting. Arctic char ( Salvelinus sp.) are a Holarctic fish often forming morphologically, and sometimes genetically, divergent morphs. In this study, we assessed the morphological and genetic diversity and divergence of 263 individuals from seven populations of arctic char with varying length-frequency distributions across two distinct groups of lakes in northern Alaska. Despite close geographic proximity, each lake group occurs on landscapes with different glacial ages and surface water connectivity, and thus was likely colonized by fishes at different times. Across lakes, a continuum of physical (e.g., lake area, maximum depth) and biological characteristics (e.g., primary productivity, fish density) exists, likely contributing to characteristics of present-day char populations. Although some lakes exhibit bimodal size distributions, using model-based clustering of morphometric traits corrected for allometry, we did not detect morphological differences within and across char populations. Genomic analyses using 15,934 SNPs obtained from genotyping by sequencing demonstrated differences among lake groups related to historical biogeography, but within lake groups and within individual lakes, genetic differentiation was not related to total body length. We used PERMANOVA to identify environmental and biological factors related to observed char size structure. Significant predictors included water transparency (i.e., a primary productivity proxy), char density (fish·ha -1 ), and lake group. Larger char occurred in lakes with greater primary production and lower char densities, suggesting less intraspecific competition and resource limitation. Thus, char populations in more productive and connected lakes may prove more stable to environmental changes, relative to food-limited and closed lakes, if lake productivity increases concomitantly. Our findings provide some of the first descriptions of genomic characteristics of char populations in arctic Alaska, and offer important consideration for the persistence of these populations for subsistence and conservation.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

A preliminary assessment of the spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment in the Ohio River basin, United States, using water quality data from the NASQAN programme in a source tracing procedure

Reliable information on catchment scale suspended sediment sources is required to inform the design of management strategies for helping abate the numerous environmental issues associated with enhanced sediment mobilization and off‐site loadings. Since sediment fingerprinting techniques avoid many of the logistical constraints associated with using more traditional indirect measurement methods at catchment scale, such approaches have been increasingly reported in the international literature and typically use data sets collected specifically for sediment source apportionment purposes. There remains scope for investigating the potential for using geochemical data sets assembled by routine monitoring programmes to fingerprint sediment provenance. In the United States, routine water quality samples are collected as part of the US Geological Survey's revised National Stream Quality Accounting Network programme. Accordingly, the geochemistry data generated from these samples over a 10‐year period (1996–2006) were used as the basis for a fingerprinting exercise to assess the key tributary sub‐catchment spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment transported by the Ohio River. Uncertainty associated with the spatial source estimates was quantified using a Monte Carlo approach in conjunction with mass balance modelling. Relative frequency weighted means were used as an alternative way of summarizing the spatial source contributions, thereby avoiding the need to use confidence limits. The results should be interpreted in the context of the routine, but infrequent nature, of the suspended sediment samples used to assemble geochemistry as a basis for the sourcing exercise. Nonetheless, the study demonstrates how routine monitoring samples can be used to provide some preliminary information on sediment provenance in large drainage basins.

Tennessee, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indi↗

USGS1984

Experimental studies in natural groundwater recharge dynamics: Assessment of recent advances in instrumentation

To quantify and model the natural groundwater-recharge process, two sites in south-central Kansas, U.S.A., were instrumented with various modern sensors and data microloggers. The atmospheric-boundary layer and the unsaturated and saturated soil zones were monitored as a unified regime. Data from the various sensors were collected using microloggers in combination with magnetic-cassette tape, graphical and digital recorders, analog paper-tape recorders, and direct observations to evaluate and automate data collection and processing. Atmospheric sensors included an anemometer, a tipping-bucket raingage, an air-temperature thermistor, a relative-humidity probe, a net radiometer, and a barometric-pressure transducer. Sensors in the unsaturated zone consisted of soil-temperature thermocouples, tensiometers coupled with pressure transducers and dial gages, gypsum blocks, and a neutron moisture probe operated by an observer. The saturated-zone sensors consisted of a water-level pressure transducer, a conventional float gage connected to a variable potentiometer, soil thermocouples, and a number of multiple-depth piezometers. Evaluation of the operation of these sensors and recorders indicated that certain types of equipment such as pressure transducers are very sensitive to environmental conditions. Extraordinary steps had to be taken to protect some of the equipment, whereas other equipment seemed to be reliable under all conditions. Based on such experiences, a number of suggestions aimed at improving such investigations are outlined.

Kansas↗

USGS2004

VOCs in shallow groundwater in new residential/commercial areas of the United States

The quality of shallow groundwater in urban areas was investigated by sampling 518 monitoring wells between 1996 and 2002 as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Well networks were installed primarily in new residential/commercial areas less than about 30 years old (17 studies) and in small towns (2 studies) by randomly locating as many as 30 monitoring wells in each study area. The median well depth was 10 m. Based on samples with age-date information, almost all groundwater was recharged after 1950. Samples were analyzed for 53 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Concentrations ranged from about 0.001 to 1000 ??g/L (median 0.04), with less than 1% of the samples exceeding a Maximum Contamination Level or Drinking Water Advisory established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Using uncensored concentration data, at least one VOC was detected in 88% of the samples, and at least two VOCs were detected in 69% of the samples. Chloroform, toluene, and perchloroethene were the three most frequently detected VOCs. Dissolved oxygen concentration, estimated recharge index, and land-use were significant variables in logistic regression models that explained the presence of the commonly detected VOCs. Dissolved oxygen concentration was the most important explanatory variable in logistic regression models for 6 of the 14 most frequently detected VOCs. Bromodichloromethane, chloroform, and 1,1,1-trichloroethane had a positive correlation with dissolved oxygen; in contrast, dichloroethane, benzene, and toluene had a negative correlation with dissolved oxygen.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2020

Modeling occupancy of rare stream fish species in the upper Cumberland and Kentucky River Basins

Biological conservation often requires an understanding of how environmental conditions affect species occurrence and detection probabilities. We used a hierarchical framework to evaluate these effects for several Appalachian stream fish species of conservation concern: Chrosomus cumberlandensis (BSD; blackside dace), Etheostoma sagitta (CAD; Cumberland arrow darter), and Etheostoma spilotum (KAD; Kentucky arrow darter). Etheostoma susanae (Cumberland darter) also is present in the study area but was too rare to model in this analysis. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, fish and habitat data were collected from 205 randomly selected stream sites in the upper Cumberland and Kentucky River Basins (120 and 85 sites, respectively) of Kentucky and Tennessee. Sites were sampled with 10 spatial replicates (2 meter x 5 meter electrofishing zones) to enable estimation of detection probabilities and environmental effects. The best models (that is, lowest Akaike information criterion scores) showed the effects of agriculture (negative) on occurrence of BSD and stream conductivity (negative) on occurrence of CAD and KAD. These effects were statistically more important than measures of basin area, elevation, and substrate size. Conductivity and agriculture showed nonlinear effects on species occurrence, and effects of conductivity were more precise above 400 microsiemens per centimeter than below this threshold. Models incorporated detection-level effects of electrofishing time (positive), flow velocity (negative), sand substrate (positive), and gravel/cobble substrate (negative). Models accounting for detection of BSD estimated occupancy rates similar to the observed proportion of occupied sites (0.10), but the best-supported models for CAD and KAD increased expected occupancy by about 4 percent for each species (from 0.17 to 0.21 for CAD and from 0.07 to 0.11 for KAD). Results of this study provide new inferences for modeling stream fish occurrence and detection processes and highlight the importance of continued monitoring and assessment of rare fish species in Appalachian headwater streams.

Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia↗

USGS2012

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2013

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems? We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ~80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ~30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era

This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2018

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

A lagrangian-to-eulerian metric to identify estuarine pelagic habitats

Estuaries are among the world’s most productive ecosystems, but recent natural and anthropogenic changes have stressed these ecosystems. Tools to assess estuarine pelagic habitats are important to support and maintain healthy ecosystem function. In this work, we demonstrate that estuarine pelagic habitats can be identified by a simple ratio, termed the LE ratio, that takes into account the tidal excursion along a channel (a Lagrangian length scale) and the distance along that channel (an Eulerian length scale). To develop and assess this concept, numerical simulations of the 1D advection–dispersion equation of a conservative tracer and tidal excursion estimates based on data were used to formulize a conceptual model and to define exchange zones within a tidal channel. This conceptual model was then used to predict the extent of pelagic habitats in a terminal channel network in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Exchange zones mapped onto these channels were found to be in good agreement with independent estimates of residence time. Sensitivity analyses of the numerical model suggest that productive pelagic habitats can be expanded by a factor of 2 by either increasing dispersion or increasing spring–neap variability in mean tidal velocity. Such changes can also enhance flushing in upper channel reaches. These findings are relevant for tidal marsh restoration projects that aim to expand beneficial aquatic habitats by varying exchange or residence time over the spring–neap cycle, because this variability may interact synergistically with varying rates of phytoplankton growth due to spatiotemporal changes in environmental conditions.

Estuaries and Coasts↗