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Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process.

Environmental Modeling and Software↗

North American osprey populations and contaminants: Historic and contemporary perspectives

Osprey ( Pandion haliaetus ) populations were adversely affected by DDT and perhaps other contaminants in the United States and elsewhere. Reduced productivity, eggshell thinning, and high DDE concentrations in eggs were the signs associated with declining osprey populations in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The species was one of the first studied on a large scale to bring contaminant issues into focus. Although few quantitative population data were available prior to the 1960s, many osprey populations in North America were studied during the 1960s and 1970s with much learned about basic life history and biology. This article reviews the historical and current effects of contaminants on regional osprey populations. Breeding populations in many regions of North America showed post-DDT-era (1972) population increases of varying magnitudes, with many populations now appearing to stabilize at much higher numbers than initially reported in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the magnitude of regional population increases in the United States between 1981 (first Nationwide Survey, ∼8,000 pairs), when some recovery had already occurred, 1994 (second survey, ∼14,200), and 2001 (third survey, ∼16,000–19,000), or any other years, is likely not a simple response to the release from earlier contaminant effects, but a response to multi-factorial effects. This indirect “contaminant effects” measurement comparing changes (i.e., recovery) in post-DDT-era population numbers over time is probably confounded by changing human attitudes toward birds of prey (shooting, destroying nests, etc.), changing habitats, changing fish populations, and perhaps competition from other species. The species' adaptation to newly created reservoirs and its increasing use of artificial nesting structures (power poles, nesting platforms, cell towers, channel markers, offshore duck blinds, etc.) are two important factors. The timing of the initial use of artificial nesting structures, which replaced declining numbers of suitable trees at many locations, varied regionally (much later in the western United States and Mexico). Because of the increasing use of artificial nesting structures, there may be more ospreys nesting in North America now than ever before. Now, with the impact of most legacy organic contaminants (DDT, other organochlorine [OC] pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins [PCDD], polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF]) greatly reduced or eliminated, and some osprey populations showing evidence of stabilizing, the species was proposed as a Worldwide Sentinel Species for evaluating emerging contaminants. Several emerging contaminants are already being studied, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and perfluorinated acids and sulfonate compounds (PFC). The many advantages for continued contaminant investigations using the osprey include a good understanding of its biology and ecology, its known distribution and abundance, and its ability to habituate to humans and their activities, which permits nesting in some of the potentially most contaminated environments. It is a top predator in most ecosystems, and its nests are relatively easy to locate and study with little researcher impact on reproductive success.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗

Significance of nearshore trace-fossil assemblages of the cambro-ordovician deadwood formation and Aladdin Sandstone, South Dakota

The Cambro-Ordovician Deadwood Formation and Aladdin Sandstone represent intertidal and subtidal, nearshore deposystems that contain few well-preserved body fossils, but contain abundant trace fossils. The present study uses the much neglected trace-fossil fauna to describe the diverse paleoenvironments represented in the Deadwood-Aladdin deposystems, and to better understand the environmental conditions that controlled benthic life in the Early Paleozoic. The Deadwood-Aladdin ichnotaxa can be separated into three distinct assemblages based on the changing sedimentologic and hydrodynamic conditions that existed across the Cambro-Ordovician shelf. Trace-fossil assemblages and corresponding lithofacies characteristics indicate that the Deadwood-Aladdin deposystems formed within an intertidal-flat and subtidal-shelf environment. Based on the distribution and numbers of preserved ichnotaxa, the intertidal flat can be subdivided further into an ecologically stressful inner sand-flat environment, and a more normal marine outer sand-flat environment, both of which belong to a mixed, Skolithos-Cruziana softground ichnofacies. The inner sand flat is characterized by low diversity, low numbers, and a general lack of complexly constructed ichnotaxa. Trace fossils common to both assemblages tend to be smaller in the inner flat compared to the outer sand flat. Taphonomic effects, such as substrate type and sediment heterogeneity, also aid in differentiating between the inner and outer sand-flat assemblages. The subtidal shelf environment is categorized in the Cruziana Ichnofacies. Ichnological evidence of periodic tempestite deposition and hardground development within this subtidal regime is manifested by high diversity and low abundance of ichnogenera.

Annals of Carnegie Museum↗

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of Pink-Footed Geese: 2014 progress summary

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest-management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their agreed target level (60 thousand) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information and its implications for the harvest management strategy. The development of a passively adaptive harvest management strategy requires specification of four elements: (a) a set of alternative population models, describing the effects of harvest and other relevant environmental factors; (b) a set of probabilities describing the relative credibility of the alternative models, which are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and monitoring information; (c) a set of alternative harvest quotas, from which a 3-year quota is chosen; and (d) an objective function, by which alternative harvest strategies can be evaluated and an optimal strategy chosen. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. Five of the models incorporate density-dependent mechanisms that would maintain the population near a carrying capacity (i.e., in the absence of harvest) of 65k – 129k depending on the specific model. The remaining four models are density independent and predict an exponentially growing population even with moderate levels of harvest. The most current set of monitoring information was used to update model weights for the period 1991 – 2013. Current model weights suggest little or no evidence for density-dependent survival and reproduction. These results suggest that the pink-footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. There was equivocal evidence for the effect of May temperature days (number of days with temperatures above freezing: TempDays) on survival and on reproduction. During the summer of 2013 we computed an optimal harvest strategy for the 3-year period 2013 – 2015. The strategy suggested that the appropriate annual harvest quota is 15 thousand. The 1-year harvest strategy calculated to determine whether an emergency closure of the hunting season is required this year suggested an allowable harvest of 25.0 thousand; thus, a hunting-season closure is not warranted. If the harvest quota of 15 thousand were met in the coming hunting season, the next population count would be expected to be 71.0 thousand. If only the most recent 4-year mean harvest were realized (11.3 thousand), a population size of 74.8 thousand would be expected. Simulations suggest that it will take approximately seven years at current harvest levels to reduce population size to the goal of 60 thousand. However, it is possible that the extension of the forthcoming hunting season in Denmark could result in a total harvest approaching 15 thousand; in this case, simulations suggest it would only take about three years to reach the goal.

Svalbard↗

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus)

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest-management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information and its implications for the harvest management strategy. The development of an adaptive harvest management (AHM) strategy requires specification of four elements: (a) a set of alternative population models, which bound the uncertainty about effects of harvest and other relevant environmental factors; (b) a set of probabilities (or weights) describing the relative credibility of the alternative models, which are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and monitoring information; (c) a set of alternative harvest quotas from which to choose; and (d) a management objective function, by which alternative harvest strategies can be evaluated and a mathematically optimal strategy identified. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models were developed. Those models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent, and the extent to which spring temperatures influence survival and reproduction. Five of the models incorporate density-dependent mechanisms that would maintain the population near a carrying capacity (i.e., in the absence of harvest) of 65,000 – 129,000 depending on the specific model. The remaining four models are density independent and predict an exponentially growing population even with moderate levels of harvest. The most current set of monitoring information was used to update model weights for the period 1991 – 2016. Current model weights suggest little evidence for density-dependent survival and reproduction. These results suggest that the pink-footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. There is equivocal evidence for the effect of May temperature days in Svalbard (number of days with temperatures above freezing) on survival and reproduction. Beginning with the 2016 hunting season, harvest quotas are chosen on an annual basis rather than every three years because of the potential to better meet management objectives. The optimal harvest strategy, however, remains “knife-edged,” meaning that small changes in resource status can precipitate large changes in the annual harvest quota. This potential outcome is likely to be of concern to hunters, and we are investigating ways in which large swings in harvest quotas might be dampened. Based on updated model probabilities, the recent observations of record-high population size (88,000), the aboveaverage proportion of the population comprised of one-year-old birds (0.196), and temperature days in Svalbard (4), the suggested harvest quota for the 2017 hunting season is 36,000. Last year the quota was 25,000, yet a harvest of only 16,143 was realized. We are increasingly concerned that with the return of average spring temperatures in Svalbard, the population will continue to grow beyond managers’ ability to control it, as is the case with many goose populations in Europe and North America.

EGMP Technical Report↗

Lead accumulation and osprey production near a mining site on the Coeur d'Alene River, Idaho

Mining and smelting at Kellogg-Smelterville, Idaho, resulted in high concentrations of lead in Coeur d'Alene (CDA) River sediments 15–65 km downstream, where ospreys ( Pandion haliaetus ) nested. Adult and nestling ospreys living along the CDA River had significantly higher blood lead concentrations than those at Lake Coeur d'Alene (intermediate area) or Pend Oreille and Flathead Lakes (reference areas). Lead concentrations in fish collected from the study areas paralleled those found in ospreys. Inhibition of blood δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD) activity and elevation of protoporphyrin concentration provided evidence of lead exposure. In adult ospreys, ALAD activity was negatively correlated with lead in blood (r=−0.57), whereas protoporphyrin was positively correlated with lead in blood (r=+0.40). Neither hemoglobin nor hematocrit was adversely affected by the relatively modest lead concentrations found in the blood. Pronounced accumulation of lead by adults or young could ultimately result in behavioral abnormalities or death, both of which would reduce productivity of the nesting osprey population. We did not observe death related to lead, behavioral abnormalities, or reduced productivity during this 1986–87 study. Despite some lead-induced biochemical changes in blood parameters, ospreys produced young at nearly identical rates in the three study areas; these rates were among the highest ever reported in the western United States. Post-fledging survival of ospreys exposed to lead early in life remains an unknown. Lead does not biomagnify in the food chain as do organochlorine pesticides and mercury and several osprey behavior traits reduce the potential for the species to accumulate critical levels of lead. Swans, which feed at a lower trophic level, continue to die from environmental lead in the region.

Idaho↗

Environmental tolerance of an invasive riparian tree and its potential for continued spread in the southwestern US

Questions: Exotic plant invasion may be aided by facilitation and broad tolerance of environmental conditions, yet these processes are poorly understood in species-rich ecosystems such as riparian zones. In the southwestern United States (US) two plant species have invaded riparian zones: tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima, T. chinensis, and their hybrids) and Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia). We addressed the following questions: (1) is Russian olive able to tolerate drier and shadier conditions than cottonwood and tamarisk? (2) Can tamarisk and cottonwood facilitate Russian olive invasion? Location: Arid riparian zones, southwestern US. Methods: We analyzed riparian tree seedling requirements in a controlled experiment, performed empirical field studies, and analyzed stable oxygen isotopes to determine the water sources used by Russian olive. Results: Russian olive survival was significantly higher in dense shade and low moisture conditions than tamarisk and cottonwood. Field observations indicated Russian olive established where flooding cannot occur, and under dense canopies of tamarisk, cottonwood, and Russian olive. Tamarisk and native riparian plant species seedlings cannot establish in these dry, shaded habitats. Russian olive can rely on upper soil water until 15 years of age, before utilizing groundwater. Conclusions: We demonstrate that even though there is little evidence of facilitation by cottonwood and tamarisk, Russian olive is able to tolerate dense shade and low moisture conditions better than tamarisk and cottonwood. There is great potential for continued spread of Russian olive throughout the southwestern US because large areas of suitable habitat exist that are not yet inhabited by this species. ?? 2010 International Association for Vegetation Science.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

Streamflow, infiltration, and ground-water recharge at Abo Arroyo, New Mexico

Abo Arroyo, an ephemeral tributary to the Rio Grande, rises in the largest upland catchment on the eastern side of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (MRGB). The 30-kilometer reach of channel between the mountain front and its confluence with the Rio Grande is incised into basin-fill sediments and separated from the regional water table by an unsaturated zone that reaches 120 meters thick. The MRGB portion of the arroyo is dry except for brief flows generated by runoff from the upland catchment. Though brief, ephemeral flows provide a substantial fraction of ground-water recharge in the southeastern portion of the MRGB. Previous estimates of average annual recharge from Abo Arroyo range from 1.3 to 21 million cubic meters. The current study examined the timing, location, and amount of channel infiltration using streamflow data and environmental tracers during a four-year period (water years 1997–2000). A streamflow-gaging station (“gage”) was installed in a bedrock-controlled reach near the catchment outlet to provide high-frequency data on runoff entering the basin. Streamflow at the gage, an approximate bound on potential tributary recharge to the basin, ranged from 0.8 to 15 million cubic meters per year. Storm-generated runoff produced about 98 percent of the flow in the wettest year and 80 percent of the flow in the driest year. Nearly all flows that enter the MRGB arise from monsoonal storms in July through October. A newly developed streambed temperature method indicated the presence and duration of ephemeral flows downstream of the gage. During the monsoon season, abrupt downward shifts in streambed temperatures and suppressed diurnal ranges provided generally clear indications of flow. Streambed temperatures during winter showed that snowmelt is also effective in generating channel infiltration. Controlled infiltration experiments in dry arroyo sediments indicated that most ephemeral flow is lost to seepage before reaching the Rio Grande. Streambed temperature records confirmed this, providing evidence of only two flows reaching the Rio Grande during a three-year period (water years 1998–2000). Sub-channel chloride concentrations indicate that approximately half of the seepage loss eventually becomes ground-water recharge. Vertical profiles of pore-water chloride in transects adjacent to the channel indicate that basin-floor recharge outside the arroyo is negligible under current climatic conditions.

New Mexico↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in an embayment in Hempstead Harbor on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked collaboratively with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering Hempstead Harbor, an embayment on the northern shore of Nassau County, Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the harbor and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, surrounding land use, and additional water-quality data (including nutrient and stable isotopes of nitrate analyses) for the location where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Our analysis revealed an abundance of human and canine fecal contamination throughout the Hempstead Harbor landscape and that water from municipal separate storm sewer system conveyances was the most likely transport mechanism of this fecal contamination. Resuspension of bed sediment may contribute to fecal contamination in the harbor, but more targeted analyses are needed to support this finding. There was little evidence of groundwater-contributing fecal bacteria by direct discharge from the subsurface. A classification scheme was developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers. Based on this classification scheme, the culvert at Glenwood Road and the outfall and the spillway at Skillman Street were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to Hempstead Harbor.

New York↗

Assessing environmental change associated with early Eocene hyperthermals in the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Eocene transient global warming events (hyperthermals) can provide insight into a future warmer world. While much research has focused on the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), hyperthermals of a smaller magnitude can be used to characterize climatic responses over different magnitudes of forcing. This study identifies two events, namely the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and H2), in shallow marine sediments of the Eocene-aged Salisbury Embayment of Maryland, based on magnetostratigraphy, calcareous nannofossil, and dinocyst biostratigraphy, as well as the recognition of negative stable carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) in biogenic calcite. We assess local environmental change in the Salisbury Embayment, utilizing clay mineralogy, marine palynology, δ 18 O of biogenic calcite, and biomarker paleothermometry (TEX 86 ). Paleotemperature proxies show broad agreement between surface water and bottom water temperature changes. However, the timing of the warming does not correspond to the CIE of the ETM2 as expected from other records, and the highest values are observed during H2, suggesting factors in addition to p CO 2 forcing have influenced temperature changes in the region. The ETM2 interval exhibits a shift in clay mineralogy from smectite-dominated facies to illite-rich facies, suggesting hydroclimatic changes but with a rather dampened weathering response relative to that of the PETM in the same region. Organic walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages show large fluctuations throughout the studied section, none of which seem systematically related to CIE warming. These observations are contrary to the typical tight correspondence between climate change and assemblages across the PETM, regionally and globally, and ETM2 in the Arctic Ocean. The data do indicate very warm and (seasonally) stratified conditions, likely salinity-driven, across H2. The absence of evidence for strong perturbations in local hydrology and nutrient supply during ETM2 and H2, compared to the PETM, is consistent with the less extreme forcing and the warmer pre-event baseline, as well as the non-linear response in hydroclimates to greenhouse forcing.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗

Geomorphic change in the Limitrophe reach of the Colorado River in response to the 2014 delta pulse flow, United States and Mexico

A pulse of water was released from Morelos Dam into the dry streambed of the Colorado River in its former delta on March 23, 2014. Although small in relation to delta floods of a century ago, this was the first flow to reach the sea in nearly two decades. The pulse flow was significant in that it resulted from an international agreement, Minute 319, which allowed Colorado River water to be used for environmental restoration. Here we present a historical perspective of channel change and the results of geomorphic and sediment transport monitoring during the pulse flow between Yuma, Arizona and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora. This reach is known as the Limitrophe, because the river channel is the legal border between the United States and Mexico. Peak discharge of the pulse flow was 120 m3/s at Morelos Dam, but decreased to 71 m3/s at the southern border because of infiltration losses to the dry streambed. In contrast, flood flows in the 1980s and 1990s peaked above 600 m3/s at the southern border, and high flows above 200 m3/s were common. The sustained high flows in the 1980s caused widening and reworking of the river channel downstream through the delta. In the Limitrophe, flooding in 1993 from the Gila River basin dissected the 1980s flood surfaces, and smaller floods in the late 1990s incised the modern “active” channel within these higher surfaces. Field observations show that most geomorphic change during the pulse flow was confined to this pre-pulse, active channel. Relatively little bank erosion was evident, particularly in upstream reaches where vegetation is most dense, but new sandbars formed in areas of flow expansion. Farther downstream, localized bed scour and deposition ranged from 10s of centimeters to more than a meter, and fluvial dunes aggraded the bed in several locations. Measurable suspended-sediment transport occurred throughout the Limitrophe. Sediment concentrations peaked during the rising limb, and suspended sand concentrations suggest deposition in the lower 7 km of the Limitrophe as the channel gradient decreases by an order of magnitude. The pulse flow was small compared to historic floods, and flood magnitudes greater than the 2014 pulse flow are therefore necessary to significantly rework stable geomorphic surfaces or induce channel widening.

Arizona and California↗

Effects of dietary cadmium on mallard ducklings

Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) ducklings were fed cadmium in the diet at 0, 5, 10, or 20 ppm from 1 day of age until 12 weeks of age. At 4-week intervals six males and six females from each dietary group were randomly selected, bled by jugular venipuncture, and necropsied. Significant decreases in packed cell volume (PCV) and hemoglobin (Hb) concentration and a significant increase in serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (GPT) were found at 8 weeks of age in ducklings fed 20 ppm cadmium. Mild to severe kidney lesions were evident in ducklings fed 20 ppm cadmium for 12 weeks. No other blood chemistry measurement, hematological parameter, or tissue histopathological measurement indicated a reaction to cadmium ingestion. Body weight, liver weight, and the ratio of the femur weight to length were not affected by dietary cadmium. Femur cadmium concentration In all ducklings 12 weeks of age declined from the values detected at 4 and 8 weeks of age. Liver cadmium concentrations were significantly higher in relation to the increased dietary levels and in relation to the length of time the ducklings were fed the cadmium diets. At 12 weeks of age the cadmium concentration in liver tissue was twice that in the diet.

Environmental Research↗

The geology of asbestos in the United States and its practical applications

Recently, naturally occurring asbestos (NOA) has drawn the attention of numerous health and regulatory agencies and citizen groups. NOA can be released airborne by (1) the disturbance of asbestos-bearing bedrocks through human activities or natural weathering, and (2) the mining and milling of some mineral deposits in which asbestos occurs as an accessory mineral(s). Because asbestos forms in specific rock types and geologic conditions, this information can be used to focus on areas with the potential to contain asbestos, rather than devoting effort to areas with minimal NOA potential. All asbestos minerals contain magnesium, silica, and water as essential constituents, and some also contain major iron and/or calcium. Predictably, the geologic environments that host asbestos are enriched in these components. Most asbestos deposits form by metasomatic replacement of magnesium-rich rocks. Asbestos-forming environments typically display shear or evidence for a significant influx of silica-rich hydrothermal fluids. Asbestos-forming processes can be driven by regional metamorphism, contact metamorphism, or magmatic hydrothermal systems. Thus, asbestos deposits of all sizes and styles are typically hosted by magnesium-rich rocks (often also iron-rich) that were altered by a metamorphic or magmatic process. Rock types known to host asbestos include serpentinites, altered ultramafic and some mafic rocks, dolomitic marbles and metamorphosed dolostones, metamorphosed iron formations, and alkalic intrusions and carbonatites. Other rock types appear unlikely to contain asbestos. These geologic insights can be used by the mining industry, regulators, land managers, and others to focus attention on the critical locales most likely to contain asbestos.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗

Shifting sands: The influence of coral reefs on shoreline erosion from short-term storm protection to long-term disequilibrium

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Nature-Based Solutions↗

Suburbanization, estrogen contamination, and sex ratio in wild amphibian populations

Research on endocrine disruption in frog populations, such as shifts in sex ratios and feminization of males, has predominantly focused on agricultural pesticides. Recent evidence suggests that suburban landscapes harbor amphibian populations exhibiting similar levels of endocrine disruption; however the endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) sources are unknown. Here, we show that sex ratios of metamorphosing frogs become increasingly female-dominated along a suburbanization gradient. We further show that suburban ponds are frequently contaminated by the classical estrogen estrone and a variety of EDCs produced by plants (phytoestrogens), and that the diversity of organic EDCs is correlated with the extent of developed land use and cultivated lawn and gardens around a pond. Our work also raises the possibility that trace-element contamination associated with human land use around suburban ponds may be contributing to the estrogenic load within suburban freshwaters and constitutes another source of estrogenic exposure for wildlife. These data suggest novel, unexplored pathways of EDC contamination in human-altered environments. In particular, we propose that vegetation changes associated with suburban neighborhoods (e.g., from forests to lawns and ornamental plants) increase the distribution of phytoestrogens in surface waters. The result of frog sex ratios varying as a function of human land use implicates a role for environmental modulation of sexual differentiation in amphibians, which are assumed to only have genetic sex determination. Overall, we show that endocrine disruption is widespread in suburban frog populations and that the causes are likely diverse.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Clutch size, reproductive success, and organochlorine contaminants in Atlantic coast black-crowned night-herons

In 1979, we gathered clutch-size and reproductive-success data on Black-crowned Night-Herons ( Nycticorax nycticorax ) nesting in three New England and two North Carolina colonies. In 1975, we gathered similar data from one of the New England and one of the North Carolina colonies. Latitudinal differences in clutch initiation were not evident. Mean clutch size was larger in the New England than in the North Carolina colonies. Mean clutch size was smaller in late nests from one New England colony studied in both years and another New England colony studied in 1979; seasonal trends in clutch size for other colonies were not found. In 1979, nest success was greater in two New England colonies than in one North Carolina colony. Within-season differences in nest success occurred but were inconsistent among colonies. In the four instances where statistical comparisons could be made, larger clutches were more successful than smaller ones in two colonies; large and small clutches had similar success in two other colonies. One egg was collected from each of several nests in each colony in 1979 for organochlorine contaminant analysis, and the fate of the remaining eggs was recorded. Concentrations of DDE and PCBs did not differ with clutch size; concentrations of PCBs were lower, however, in eggs laid late in the season. Although the data suggest an effect of DDE on hatching success in the northern more contaminated colonies, the impact of environmental contaminants on overall reproductive success appears to be minimal.

Massachusetts, North Carolina, Rhode Island↗

Studies on avian malaria in vectors and hosts of encephalitis in Kern County, California. I. Infections in avian hosts

An epizoological study of Plasmodium infections in wild birds of Kern County, California, in the years 1946 through 1951 greatly extended knowledge of the occurrence of these parasites and their behavior in nature. Examination of 10,459 blood smears from 8,674 birds representing 73 species resulted in the observation of Plasmodium spp. in 1,094 smears representing 888 individual birds of 27 species. Seven species of Plasmodium were found: relictum, elongatum, hexamerium, nucleophilum, polare, rouxi and vaughani. Plasmodium relictum was by far the most frequently observed species, occurring in at least 79 per cent of the infected birds. Twelve new host species are recorded for this parasite. Sufficient morphological variation was observed to indicate that two strains of this species probably exist in nature. Numerous new host records were made of plasmodia with elongate gametocytes. The finding of parasites believed to be P. rouxi in two new host species represents the first record of the occurrence of this Plasmodium outside of Algeria. Multiple smears were obtained from a number of individual birds over varying time periods. Evidence of prolonged parasitemia was unusual, but some individuals had parasitemia on consecutive months and even for three successive years. In most individuals, parasitemias were of short duration. The inoculation of blood from wild birds into canaries led to the demonstration of many infections not observed on blood smear examination of donors. Use of these two complementary techniques led to more complete host records and a truer picture of the prevalence of infection. Three age classes of birds were studied--nestling, immature (less than 1 year of age) and adult. Parasites were observed in all three groups but infections in the younger individuals were most susceptible to interpretation. As to time of onset, numerous records were obtained of infection in nestling birds. Prevalence rates in immature birds after a single season's exposure ranged from 64 to 100 per cent in the house finch and 17 to 68 per cent in the English sparrow in different areas and years. Marked differences were found in the prevalence rates in different summer months, years and areas. It is believed these differences reflect variation in a number of environmental factors. This study indicates the extensive distribution of Plasmodium infection in a wide range of wild avian hosts. The observations are of possible importance in epidemiological studies of other arthropod-borne diseases such as the viral encephalitides for which these birds serve as hosts.

California↗

Environmental contaminant hazards to Attwater's greater prairie-chickens

The Attwater's greater prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido attwateri ) was declared an endangered species in 1966 and exists only on the upper Gulf Coast prairie of southeast Texas. Since 1975, total numbers have declined from 2,240 to 1,456 in 1981 (Jurries 19679; W. Shifflett, Manager Attwater Prairie Chicken National Wildlife Refuge [APCNWR], personal communication). The total population of this prairie grouse is presently scattered in a norther, largely agricultural, but also urban-rangeland area of 6 counties that contained about 600 individuals in 1971, and a southern, largely rangeland, but also agricultural-urban area of 4 counties that contained about 860 individuals in 1981. During the present study, Attwater's prairie-chickens completely disappeared in Wharton and Waller counties in the northern area ( W. Shifflett, personal communication). Prairie-chickens in the northern area frequent crops of rice, soybeans, peanuts, or corn; those in the southern area frequent sorghum or cotton that are planted on or near ancestral booming grounds. The use of pesticides in the agricultural areas may have contributed to the initial decline of prairie-chicken numbers. In 1927, several hundred prairie-chickens were found dead in and near a cotton field in Wharton County shortly after it had been treated with arsenic (Lehmann and Mauermann 1963). The remains of 5 prairie-chickens were found in sorghum and soybean fields in Refugio and Colorado counties between 1975 and 1977 (R. Haeber and W. Kessler, personal communication) but were too decomposed to be analyzed for evidence of pesticide exposure. Parathion formulations had been applied to the soybeans and near the sorghum. Other pesticide use on the areas was uncertain. The objective of this study was to ascertain pesticide hazards to Attwater's greater prairie-chickens.

Texas↗