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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Predicting effects of large-scale reforestation on native and exotic birds

Aim Ecological restoration is critical for recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet designing interventions to achieve particular outcomes remains fraught with challenges. In the extensive regions where non-native species are firmly established, it is unlikely that historical conditions can be fully reinstated. To what degree, and how rapidly, can human-dominated areas be shifted via restoration into regimes that benefit target species, communities or processes? Location We explore this question in a >20-year-old reforestation effort underway at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge in montane Hawaii. This large-scale planting of Acacia koa trees is designed to secure populations of globally threatened bird species by transitioning the site rapidly from pasture to native forest. Methods We surveyed all forest birds in multiple corridors of young planted trees, remnant corridors of mature trees along gulches and at sites within mature forest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we identified which factors (distance from forest, habitat type and surrounding tree cover) had the most important influence on native and exotic bird abundance in the reforestation area. Results We found that 90% of native and exotic bird species responded quickly, occupying corridors of native trees approximately a decade after planting. However, native and exotic forest birds responded to markedly different characteristics of the reforested area. Native bird abundance was strongly predicted by proximity to mature forest and remnant corridors; conversely, exotic bird abundance was best predicted by overall tree cover throughout the area reforested. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that large-scale tree planting in corridors adjacent to mature forest can catalyse rapid recovery (both increased abundance and expanded distribution) of forest birds and that it is possible to design reforestation to benefit native species in novel ecosystems.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Patterns of species richness hotspots and estimates of their protection are sensitive to spatial resolution

Aim Species richness is a measure of biodiversity often used in spatial conservation assessments and mapped by summing species distribution maps. Commission errors inherent those maps influence richness patterns and conservation assessments. We sought to further the understanding of the sensitivity of hotspot delineation methods and conservation assessments to commission errors, and choice of threshold for hotspot delineation. Location United States. Methods We created range maps and 30‐m and 1‐km resolution habitat maps for terrestrial vertebrates in the United States and generated species richness maps with each dataset. With the richness maps and the GAP Protected Areas Dataset, we created species richness hotspot maps and calculated the proportion of hotspots within protected areas; calculating protection under a range of thresholds for defining hotspots. Our method allowed us to identify the influence of commission errors by comparing hotspot maps. Results Commission errors from coarse spatial grain data and lack of porosity in the range data inflated richness estimates and altered their spatial patterns. Coincidence of hotspots from different data types was low. The 30‐m hotspots were spatially dispersed, and some were very long distances from the hotspots mapped with coarser data. Estimates of protection were low for each of the taxa. The relationship between estimates of hotspot protection and threshold choice was nonlinear and inconsistent among data types (habitat and range) and grain size (30‐m and 1‐km). Main conclusions Coarse mapping methods and grain sizes can introduce commission errors into species distribution data that could result in misidentifications of the regions where hotspots occur and affect estimates of hotspot protection. Hotspot conservation assessments are also sensitive to choice of threshold for hotspot delineation. There is value in developing species distribution maps with high resolution and low rates of commission error for conservation assessments.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2018

Drivers of chaparral type conversion to herbaceous vegetation in coastal Southern California

Aim In Southern California, native woody shrublands known as chaparral support exceptional biodiversity. However, large‐scale conversion of chaparral into largely exotic herbaceous cover is a major ecological threat and serious conservation concern. Due to substantial uncertainty regarding the causes and extent of this vegetation change, we aimed to quantify the primary drivers of and map potentially vulnerable locations for vegetation type conversion from woody into herbaceous cover. Location Santa Monica Mountains National Recreational Area, Southern California, USA. Methods We used air photograph image interpretation to quantify the extent to which chaparral shrublands transitioned to herbaceous cover from 1943 to 2014 across nearly 800 randomly located plots. Comparing plots that remained chaparral to those that converted to herbaceous cover, we performed hierarchical partitioning to quantify the independent contribution of a range of explanatory variables, and then used classification trees to explore variable interactions. We also developed a spatial model to create a seamless map delineating relative probability of type conversion. Results Of the original plots that were chaparral in 1943, 284 (36%) changed cover by 2014, with 79 completely converting, and 142 mostly converting to herbaceous cover. The primary mechanism behind shrubland decline and replacement was short intervals between fires (<=10 years), and type conversion was most likely to occur in arid parts of the landscape with low topographic heterogeneity and close proximity to trails and roads. Predictive maps delineated several hotspots with environmental conditions similar to those of type‐converted plots. Main conclusions Chaparral type conversion is a widespread conservation concern, and results here suggest that short‐interval fire and landscape disturbance are the most likely factors to exacerbate it, particularly in water‐limited portions of the landscape where chaparral is subject to greater physiological stress and slower recovery. Reducing fire ignitions and mapping vulnerable areas may be important strategies for prevention.

California↗
USGS2019

Clustering and ensembling approaches to support surrogate-based species management

Aim Surrogate species can provide an efficient mechanism for biodiversity conservation if they encompass the needs or indicate the status of a broader set of species. When species that are the focus of ongoing management efforts act as effective surrogates for other species, these incidental surrogacy benefits lead to additional efficiency. Assessing surrogate relationships often relies on grouping species by distributional patterns or by species traits, but there are few approaches for integrating outputs from multiple methods into summaries of surrogate relationships that can inform decision‐making. Location Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Methods We evaluated how well five upland‐nesting waterfowl species that are a focus of management may act as surrogates for other wetland‐dependent birds. We grouped species by their patterns of relative abundance at multiple scales and by different sets of traits, and evaluated whether empirical validation could effectively select among the resulting species groupings. We used an ensemble approach to integrate the different estimated relationships among species and visualized the ensemble as a network diagram. Results Estimated relationships among species were sensitive to methodological decisions, with qualitatively different relationships arising from different approaches. An ensemble provided an effective tool for integrating across different estimates and highlighted the Sora ( Porzana carolina ), American Avocet ( Recurvirostra Americana ) and Black Tern ( Chlidonias niger ) as the non‐waterfowl species expected to show the strongest incidental surrogacy relationships with the waterfowl that are the focus of ongoing management. Main conclusions An ensemble approach integrated multiple estimates of surrogate relationship strength among species and allowed for intuitive visualizations within a network. By accounting for methodological uncertainty while providing a simple continuous metric of surrogacy, our approach is amenable to both further validation and integration into decision‐making.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗
USGS2020

Regional coordination between riparian dependence and atmospheric demand in willows (Salix L.) of western North America

Aim Plants vary in their hydrological and climatic niches. How these niche dimensions covary among closely related species can help identify co‐adaptations to hydrological and climatic factors, as well as predict biodiversity responses to environmental change. Location Western United States. Methods Relationships between riparian dependence and climate niches of willows ( Salix L.) were assessed, incorporating phylogenetics and functional traits to understand the adaptive nature of those relationships. The riparian dependence niche was estimated as the mean distance between georeferenced occurrence records and the nearest stream based on the National Hydrography Database. Results were compared to oaks ( Quercus L.), a less riparian‐dependent clade, with the expectation of different niche relationships. Results Willows generally occurred closer to streams than expected by chance, but riparian dependence varied substantially among species. Riparian dependence was positively correlated with mean annual temperature and diurnal temperature range niche, both indicators of atmospheric demand on evapotranspiration. Phylogenetic independent contrast correlations for these relationships were significant as well, and the high degree of niche convergence among species indicated evolutionarily labile co‐adaptations to riparian dependence and atmospheric demand. Plant height increased with mean annual temperature niche, and specific leaf area increased with residual variation in height, indicating underlying morphological correlates of niche variation. Oaks, on the other hand, exhibited no relationship between atmospheric demand and riparian dependence, and weaker niche relationships with riparian dependence overall. Main conclusions These results support the assertion that hydric‐adapted, woody riparian plants compensate for increased atmospheric demand on transpiration with a reliable supply of water provided by riparian habitats and that this trade‐off may be unique from mesic–xeric woody plants. Conservation of warm‐adapted riparian trees and shrubs under increasing temperatures and atmospheric demand may necessitate reversal of groundwater depletion. Cool‐adapted species may be best conserved through maintenance or expansion of riparian buffers as they become more riparian obligate with warming.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2021

Biotic and abiotic determinants of finescale dace distribution at the southern edge of their range

Aim The factors that set range limits for animal populations can inform management plans aimed at maintaining regional biodiversity. We examine abiotic and biotic drivers of the distribution of finescale dace ( Chrosomus neogaeus ) in two Great Plains basins to identify limiting factors for a threatened freshwater fish population at the edge of their range. Location Great Plains, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming, USA. Methods We investigated abiotic and biotic factors influencing the contemporary distribution of finescale dace in the Belle Fourche and Niobrara River basins with Random Forests classification models using fish surveys from multiple agencies spanning 2008–2019 and GIS-derived environmental data. Results In both basins, finescale dace occurrence exhibited a nonlinear response to mean August water temperature. Abiotic covariates, including streamflow, water temperature and channel slope, were important limiting factors in the final model fit with Belle Fourche River basin surveys ( n = 131). In contrast, a biotic covariate, native minnow richness, was the most important predictor of finescale dace occurrence in the Niobrara River basin model ( n = 27). In the Niobrara River, native minnow richness was lower at sites with non-native northern pike ( Esox lucius ). Main conclusions Basin-specific analyses revealed context dependencies for species–environment relationships, which can inform targeted restoration actions. Similar relationships between water temperature and finescale dace occurrence across both basins suggest summer thermal habitat as a regional limiting factor. The importance of biotic interactions in the Niobrara River highlights an emergent threat from invasive predators to a distinct assemblage of native prairie fishes.

Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

The demographic and ecological factors shaping diversification among rare Astragalus species

Aim Evolutionary radiations are central to the origin and maintenance of biodiversity, yet we rarely understand how they are jointly shaped by demography and ecological opportunity. Astragalus is the largest plant genus in the world and is disproportionately comprised of rare species restricted to narrow geographic and ecological regions. Here, we explored the demographic and ecological mechanisms underlying patterns of diversification in a threatened Astragalus species complex endemic to a small desert region in the western United States. Location Southeast Utah, USA. Methods We used high‐throughput DNA sequencing to infer genetic structure, genetic diversity, and demographic history (i.e., the timing of population divergence, effective population sizes and gene flow) among Astragalus taxa. We performed landscape genetic analyses to quantify the relationships between genetic differentiation, geographic distance, and ecological distance based on bioclimatic and soil variables. Finally, we identified putative adaptive loci that show higher genetic differentiation between taxa than expected based on our inferred neutral demographic model. Results We found evidence of low gene flow between three highly differentiated taxa (currently delineated as A . iselyi , A . sabulosus var. sabulosus and A. sabulosus var. vehiculus ) that rapidly diverged from a small ancestral population near the beginning of the last glacial period. Genomic signatures revealed long‐term effective population sizes are 2–10× larger than recent census sizes, perhaps due to the maintenance of standing genetic variation through seed banks. Consistent with limited dispersal and local adaptation, genome‐wide patterns of differentiation are shaped by geographic distance (isolation‐by‐distance) and climate and soil variation (isolation‐by‐environment). Taxon‐specific adaptation is further supported by uncovering putative adaptive loci. Main Conclusions Our findings suggest that interactions between demography (i.e., dispersal limitations and seeds banks) and ecological opportunity (i.e., spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity) may promote diversification, endemism, and rarity among closely related Astragalus species and similar plant clades distributed across complex landscapes.

Utah↗
USGS2021

A new composite abundance metric detects stream fish declines and community homogenization during six decades of invasions

Aim We developed a new technique, utilizing species-specific counts of individuals from historical fish community samples, to examine landscape-level, spatio-temporal trends in relative abundance distributions. Abundance-based historical distribution analyses are often plagued by data comparability issues, but provide critical information about community composition trends inaccessible to those using analyses based only on species presence–absence. We established trends in native and non-native fish abundance and community homogenization, uniqueness and diversity to help local conservation managers prioritize targets and motivate similar studies globally to support fish conservation. Location Upper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA. Methods We compiled catch data from 61 years of fish community surveys (1958–2019) and tested for community homogenization by comparing data from repeatedly sampled sites (1900s versus 2000s samples) using dispersion analyses. We measured community uniqueness (site contributions to beta diversity) and species diversity (Shannon index) at sampled streams to identify potential conservation hotspots. We then used regression analyses and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests to examine species-specific basin-wide and local abundance trends and identify species of potential conservation concern. Results Dispersion of sites in species abundance space was significantly greater in the 1900s compared with the 2000s, indicating homogenization had occurred. Of 36 native species analysed, 44.4% (16) showed basin-wide declines. Non-native species exhibited mixed patterns; site-level abundance increased in 2 of 15 species analysed (13%). Main conclusions Our results indicate basin-wide community homogenization has occurred within the UMNR, but many unique and diverse communities persist. If conserved, these could help maintain regional fish diversity. We found basin-wide declines in four endemic species, as well as spread patterns of non-native and native species that were not detected by a presence–absence analysis applied within the same study area. This finding illustrates the importance of considering both species’ abundance and occurrence patterns as separate dimensions of biodiversity to inform conservation planning.

North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2022

Biogeography of freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) in Texas and implications on conservation biology

Aim Biogeography seeks to identify and explain the spatial distributions of species and has become an important tool used by conservationists to protect and manage aquatic organisms. Texas, located in the southwestern United States, is home to 52 species of freshwater mussels, 9 of which are endemic to Texas and 7 that are endemic to Texas and neighboring states or countries. There have been two major attempts to classify this fauna into biogeographical provinces; however, both efforts relied on limited distribution information and outdated taxonomy. To address both issues, we set out to delineate biogeographic provinces for freshwater mussels in Texas by using a comprehensive distributional dataset of >28,000 records and molecular information. Location Southwestern United States. Methods We compiled community and molecular data for 48 of the 52 freshwater mussel species that occur in Texas. We performed algorithmic hierarchal cluster analysis (HCA) and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) based on Euclidean distance to identify biogeographic groupings. We conducted a similar analysis using molecular sequence data for our target species. Results Based on the results from community and molecular data, we identified seven biogeographic provinces for freshwater mussels in Texas: Great Plains, Mississippi Embayment, Sabine-Neches, Trinity-San Jacinto, Central Texas, Rio Grande and Coastal. However, the Coastal and Great Plains provinces were not included in our analysis and were recognized based on previous work. Main conclusions Our approach integrating community and molecular datasets provides a comprehensive assessment of the biogeography of freshwater mussels in Texas, which serves as a model for future biogeographic studies. Our findings also shed light on the ecological, evolutionary and geologic processes shaping freshwater mussel communities in Texas, which is important for the conservation of remaining biodiversity in the state.

Texas↗
USGS2022

Riparian buffers provide refugia during secondary forest succession

Aim Secondary forests regenerating from human disturbance are increasingly becoming a predominant forest type in many regions, and they play a significant role in forest community dynamics. Understanding the factors that underlie the variation in species responses during secondary succession is important for understanding community assembly and biodiversity monitoring and management. Because species vary in ecology and behaviour, responses to ecosystem change should vary among species. Here, we show that habitat type (riparian, upland), phylogeny, and species traits mediate anuran and lizard probability of occurrence and species richness in pasture and secondary forest. Location Sarapiquí and Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. Methods We used phylogenetic occupancy models to estimate assemblage-level and species-specific responses to forest succession in 30 chronosequence sites that include pasture, secondary forest regenerating from pasture, and mature forest sites. Results For the majority of species, we found increasing probability of occurrence in upland habitats as forest regenerated from pasture to secondary forest and similar probability of occurrence in riparian habitats across pasture, secondary forest, and mature forest sites. Species' responses to forest stage were phylogenetically correlated, and the trend was especially strong for anuran response to pasture sites. Anurans with lentic larval habitat had a positive occupancy response to pasture upland habitat, and anurans with lotic larval habitat had a variable response to different forest stages compared to mature forest. Main Conclusions Our study, which focuses on sites that are minimally isolated from mature forest reference sites, indicated that anuran and lizard occupancy rapidly recovered to a level similar to mature forest in a relatively short time span (approximately 20 years). Riparian habitats are key ecosystem features in our system and provide refugia for organisms in early successional stages. Maintenance of vegetation along streams shows that we can mitigate forest conversion by maintaining riparian buffers.

Osa Peninsula, Sarapiquí↗
USGS2022

Winter severity affects occupancy of spring- and summer-breeding anurans across the eastern United States

Aim Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well-studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines. Location Eastern United States. Time period 2001–2015. Major taxa studied Anurans. Methods We used large-scale citizen science data from the eastern half of the United States, a diverse biogeographic and climatic region, to assess how variation in winter severity influenced occupancy dynamics (i.e. presence or absence of species across sites and years) of 11 spring and summer breeding anuran species. Results Most species had increased occupancy in years with greater than average snow cover and warmer than average mean winter temperatures. Surprisingly, climatic conditions in winter affected occupancy dynamics of species with varying life history characteristics, including both spring and summer breeding species, those that overwinter under the soil, and those that overwinter in ponds and stream beds. For two wide-ranging species ( Lithobates catesbeianus and Lithobates clamitans ), colder winter temperatures reduced occupancy more at northern latitudes, while the association between days of snow cover and latitude was equivocal. Main conclusions As the climate continues to change, expected reductions in snowpack may reduce occupancy of already declining anuran populations, while milder winters may improve overwinter survival for some species. The contradictory impacts of temperature and snow cover illustrate the importance of considering multi-dimensional impacts of climate change on anuran populations.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2015

A centroid model of species distribution with applications to the Carolina wren Thryothorus ludovicianus and house finch Haemorhous mexicanus in the United States

Drastic shifts in species distributions are a cause of concern for ecologists. Such shifts pose great threat to biodiversity especially under unprecedented anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Many studies have documented recent shifts in species distributions. However, most of these studies are limited to regional scales, and do not consider the abundance structure within species ranges. Developing methods to detect systematic changes in species distributions over their full ranges is critical for understanding the impact of changing environments and for successful conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. Yearly abundance-weighted range centroids are estimated. As case studies, we derive annual centroids for the Carolina wren and house finch in their ranges in the U.S. We further evaluate the first-difference correlation between species’ centroid movement and changes in winter severity, total population abundance. We also examined associations of change in centroids from sub-ranges. Change in full-range centroid movements of Carolina wren significantly correlate with snow cover days (r = −0.58). For both species, the full-range centroid shifts also have strong correlation with total abundance (r = 0.65, and 0.51 respectively). The movements of the full-range centroids of the two species are correlated strongly (up to r = 0.76) with that of the sub-ranges with more drastic population changes. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of centroids for analyzing distribution changes in a two-dimensional spatial context. Particularly it highlights applications that associate the centroid with factors such as environmental stressors, population characteristics, and progression of invasive species. Routine monitoring of changes in centroid will provide useful insights into long-term avian responses to environmental changes.

Ecography↗
USGS2020

Multi‐species occupancy models: Review, roadmap, and recommendations

Recent technological and methodological advances have revolutionized wildlife monitoring. Although most biodiversity monitoring initiatives are geared towards focal species of conservation concern, researchers are increasingly studying entire communities, specifically the spatiotemporal drivers of community size and structure and interactions among species. This has resulted in the emergence of multi‐species occupancy models (MSOMs) as a promising and efficient approach for the study of community ecology. Given the potential of MSOMs for conservation and management action, it is critical to know whether study design and model assumptions are consistent with inference objectives. This is especially true for studies that are designed for a focal species but can give insights about a community. Here, we review the recent literature on MSOMs, identify areas of improvement in the multi‐species study workflow, and provide a reference model for best practices for focal species and community monitoring study design. We reviewed 92 studies published between 2009 and early 2018, spanning 27 countries and a variety of taxa. There is a consistent under‐reporting of details that are central to determining the adequacy of designs for generating data that can be used to make inferences about community‐level patterns of occupancy, including the spatial and temporal extent, types of detectors used, covariates considered, and choice of field methods and statistical tools. This reporting bias could consequently result in skewed estimates, affecting conservation actions and management plans. On the other hand, comprehensive reporting is likely to help researchers working on MSOMs assess the robustness of inferences, in addition to making strides in terms of reproducibility and reusability of data. We use our literature review to inform a roadmap with best practices for MSOM studies, from simulations to design considerations and reporting, for the collection of new data as well as those involving existing datasets.

Ecography↗
USGS2017

Catchment-scale determinants of nonindigenous minnow richness in the eastern United States

Understanding the drivers of biological invasions is critical for preserving aquatic biodiversity. Stream fishes make excellent model taxa for examining mechanisms driving species introduction success because their distributions are naturally limited by catchment boundaries. In this study, we compared the relative importance of catchment-scale abiotic and biotic predictors of native and nonindigenous minnow (Cyprinidae) richness in 170 catchments throughout the eastern United States. We compared historic and contemporary cyprinid distributional data to determine catchment-wise native/nonindigenous status for 152 species. Catchment-scale model predictor variables described natural (elevation, precipitation, flow accumulation) and anthropogenic (developed land cover, number of dams) abiotic features, as well as native congener richness. Native congener richness may represent either biotic resistance via interspecific competition, or trait preadaptation according to Darwin's naturalisation hypothesis. We used generalised linear mixed models to examine evidence supporting the relative roles of abiotic and biotic predictors of cyprinid introduction success. Native congener richness was positively correlated with nonindigenous cyprinid richness and was the most important variable predicting nonindigenous cyprinid richness. Mean elevation had a weak positive effect, and effects of other abiotic factors were insignificant and less important. Our results suggest that at this spatial scale, trait preadaptation may be more important than intrageneric competition for determining richness of nonindigenous fishes.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗
USGS2020

A call for global action to conserve native trout in the 21st century and beyond

Trout and char (hereafter, trout ) represent some of the more culturally, economically and ecologically important taxa of freshwater fishes worldwide (Kershner, Williams, Gresswell, & Lobón‐Cerviá, 2019a ). Native to all continents in the Northern Hemisphere (as well as western Mediterranean Africa), trout belong to seven genera ( Oncorhynchus , Salvelinus, Salmo , Hucho, Parahucho, Brachymystax and Salvethymus ), which are distributed across more than 60 countries (Muhlfeld et al., 2019 ). Despite their broad importance as indicators of biodiversity in cold‐water ecosystems (Haak & Williams, 2013 ), as well as cultural icons for food and recreation, nearly half of the world's recognised trout species (IUCN, 2018 ) are imperilled or at risk of global extinction (Muhlfeld et al., 2018 , 2019 ). The root causes of their vulnerability include broad‐scale alteration of landscapes and watersheds, dams, overharvest, pollution, interactions with hatchery‐bred conspecifics and non‐native species. However, emerging threats such as climate change and related problems such as the spread of diseases and parasites pose significant challenges and uncertainties to native trout and their habitats (Kovach et al., 2016 ; Muhlfeld et al., 2018 ). Ultimately, conservation of native trout depends on understanding their diversity, a willingness to address threats at their root causes and implementing progressive conservation solutions that promote persistence of these iconic species in the face of growing human pressures.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗
USGS2020

Hydrogeomorphological controls on reach‐scale distributions of cichlid nest sites in a small neotropical river

The Cichlidae are among the most diversified families of fish in the Neotropics and represent an important component of aquatic biodiversity. Understanding cichlid nest‐site selection is important for assemblages facing uncertain futures due to species invasions and environmental change. This information could be used to predict how inter‐ and intraspecific competition for reproductive space may affect populations with changing community dynamics or to identify areas as targets for conservation. We investigated which hydrogeomorphological factors correlated to preferred nest sites of four native cichlid species in the Bladen River, Belize. We recorded the locations of nest sites and collected habitat data through the study reach, including flow velocity, depth, sediment type, fish cover type richness and distance to the bank. Nest locations and physical habitat data were used to construct spatially explicit habitat models using boosted regression trees (BRTs). The models provided statistically significant evidence that physical habitat variables influence the distribution of the nest sites. We found that all species except Archocentrus spilurus were associated with substrate, specifically sand. Thorichthys meeki was also associated with lower water velocities, whereas Cichlasoma salvini was influenced by all five variables. Vieja maculicauda and Archocentrus spilurus were both influenced by flow velocity, distance to bank and depth, although A. spilurus preferred deeper, slightly faster locations about the same distance to the bank. This study suggests that the spatial distribution of nest sites within this cichlid community is significantly different than random and is at least partially governed by physical controls.

Monkey River Basin↗
USGS2017

Moving forward in circles: Challenges and opportunities in modeling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2020

Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.

Ecology Letters↗