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USGS2017

Wave dynamics and flooding on low-lying tropical reef-lined coasts

Many tropical islands and coasts are lined with coral reefs. These reefs are host to valuable ecosystems that support abundant marine species and provide resources for fisheries and recreation. As a flood defense, reefs protect coastlines from coastal storm damage and flooding by reducing the majority of incident wave energy. However, during storm and large swell conditions, coastal wave-driven flooding and overwash still occur due to high water levels, (infra) gravity waves, and/or low-frequency wave resonance. The wave and flooding effects cause erosion, damage to infrastructure, agricultural crops, and salinization of precious drinking water supplies. These impacts, which are likely to increase due to climate change and ongoing development on the islands, may cause many low-lying tropical islands and coastal areas to become uninhabitable before the end of the century. This paper investigates aspects of wave dynamics for the case of a small island in the tropical Pacific Ocean, shows projections of flooding under climate change scenarios, and outlines approaches to generalize the results to other islands, including mitigation options.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ 2 H, δ 18 O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

Luquillo Mountains↗

USGS2015

Holocene variability in the intensity of wind-gap upwelling in the tropical eastern Pacific

Wind-driven upwelling in Pacific Panamá is a significant source of oceanographic variability in the tropical eastern Pacific. This upwelling system provides a critical teleconnection between the Atlantic and tropical Pacific that may impact climate variability on a global scale. Despite its importance to oceanographic circulation, ecology, and climate, little is known about the long-term stability of the Panamanian upwelling system or its interaction with climatic forcing on millennial time scales. Using a combination of radiocarbon and U-series dating of fossil corals collected in cores from five sites across Pacific Panamá, we reconstructed the local radiocarbon reservoir correction, ΔR, from ~6750 cal B.P. to present. Because the ΔR of shallow-water environments is elevated by upwelling, our data set represents a millennial-scale record of spatial and temporal variability of the Panamanian upwelling system. The general oceanographic gradient from relatively strong upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá to weak-to-absent upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí was present throughout our record; however, the intensity of upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá varied significantly through time. Our reconstructions suggest that upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá is weak at present; however, the middle Holocene was characterized by periods of enhanced upwelling, with the most intense upwelling occurring just after of a regional shutdown in the development of reefs at ~4100 cal B.P. Comparisons with regional climate proxies suggest that, whereas the Intertropical Convergence Zone is the primary control on modern upwelling in Pacific Panamá, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation drove the millennial-scale variability of upwelling during the Holocene.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2016

Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida?

Distributional limits of many tropical species in Florida are ultimately determined by tolerance to low temperature. An unprecedented cold spell during 2–11 January 2010, in South Florida provided an opportunity to compare the responses of tropical American crocodiles with warm-temperate American alligators and to compare the responses of nonnative Burmese pythons with native warm-temperate snakes exposed to prolonged cold temperatures. After the January 2010 cold spell, a record number of American crocodiles ( n = 151) and Burmese pythons ( n = 36) were found dead. In contrast, no American alligators and no native snakes were found dead. American alligators and American crocodiles behaved differently during the cold spell. American alligators stopped basking and retreated to warmer water. American crocodiles apparently continued to bask during extreme cold temperatures resulting in lethal body temperatures. The mortality of Burmese pythons compared to the absence of mortality for native snakes suggests that the current population of Burmese pythons in the Everglades is less tolerant of cold temperatures than native snakes. Burmese pythons introduced from other parts of their native range may be more tolerant of cold temperatures. We documented the direct effects of cold temperatures on crocodiles and pythons; however, evidence of long-term effects of cold temperature on their populations within their established ranges remains lacking. Mortality of crocodiles and pythons outside of their current established range may be more important in setting distributional limits.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2016

Combined use of isotopic and hydrometric data to conceptualize ecohydrological processes in a high-elevation tropical ecosystem

Few high-elevation tropical catchments worldwide are gauged and even fewer are studied using combined hydrometric and isotopic data. Consequently, we lack information needed to understand processes governing rainfall-runoff dynamics and to predict their influence on downstream ecosystem functioning. To address this need, we present a combination of hydrometric and water stable isotopic observations in the wet Andean páramo ecosystem of the Zhurucay Ecohydrological Observatory (7.53 km2). The catchment is located in the Andes of south Ecuador between 3400 and 3900 m a.s.l. Water samples for stable isotopic analysis were collected during 2 years (May 2011 – May 2013), while rainfall and runoff measurements were continuously recorded since late 2010. The isotopic data reveal that Andosol soils predominantly situated on hillslopes drain laterally to Histosols (Andean páramo wetlands) mainly located at the valley bottom. Histosols, in turn, feed water to creeks and small rivers throughout the year, establishing hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and the drainage network. Runoff is primarily comprised of pre-event water stored in the Histosols, which is replenished by rainfall that infiltrates through the Andosols. Contributions from the mineral horizon and the top of the fractured bedrock are small and only seem to influence discharge in small catchments during low flow generation (non-exceedance flows < Q35). Variations in source contributions are controlled by antecedent soil moisture, rainfall intensity, and duration of rainy periods. Saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soils, higher than the year-round low precipitation intensity, indicates that Hortonian overland flow rarely occurs during high intensity precipitation events. Deep groundwater contributions to discharge seem to be minimal. These results suggest that, in this high-elevation tropical ecosystem: 1) subsurface flow is a dominant hydrological process and 2) (Histosols) wetlands are the major source of stream runoff. Our study highlights that detailed isotopic characterization during short time periods provides valuable information about ecohydrological processes in regions where very few basins are gauged.

Zhurucay River Ecohydrological Observatory↗

USGS2015

Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: Propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models

Many tropical islands have limited water resources with historically increasing demand, all potentially affected by a changing climate. The effects of climate change on island hydrology are difficult to model due to steep local precipitation gradients and sparse data. This work uses 10 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios to evaluate the uncertainty propagated from GCMs in projecting the effects of climate change on water resources in a tropical island system. The assessment is conducted using a previously configured hydrologic model, the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) for Puerto Rico. Projected climate data and their modelled hydrologic variables versus historical measurements and their modelled hydrologic variables are found to have empirical distribution functions that are statistically different with less than 1 year of daily data aggregation. Thus, only annual averages of the projected hydrologic variables are employed as completely bias‐corrected model outputs. The magnitude of the projected total flow decreases in the four regions covering Puerto Rico, but with a large range of uncertainty depending on the makeup of the GCM ensemble. The multi‐model mean projected total flow decreases by 49–88% of historical amounts from the 1960s to the 2090s for the high emissions scenarios and by 39–79% for the low emissions scenarios. Subsurface flow contributions decreased the least and groundwater flow contributions decreased the most across the island. At locations critical to water supply for human use, projected streamflow is shown to decrease substantially below projected withdrawals by 2099.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2002

Geoindicators for river and river-valley monitoring in the humid tropics

Geoindicators for rivers and river valleys in the humid tropics are suggested to indicate environmental change during periods of up to a century. Geoindicators suggested for upland areas of supply are rainfall-runoff relations, rates of soil movement and slope failure, and analyses of drainage density. Data applicable to sediment storage in lowlands are rates of sediment deposition as shown by monuments, short-lived radioisotopes, and pollen. Discharges of water, sediment, and dissolved solids are basic geoindicators for large streams, especially when analyses include flood frequency, stage-discharge relations, flow duration, sediment-rating curves, and comparisons of dissolved loads to sediment loads. The utility of geoindicators in the humid tropics may be greatest if observation sites are selected with a network design to permit comparisons of sites with similar conditions of climate and drainage-basin characteristics.

Environmental Geology↗

USGS2013

The regional forcing of Northern hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events

Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Niño-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Niña events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988–1989, 1998–2000, 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Niña events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Niña event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2012

Isotope geochemistry and fluxes of carbon and organic matter in tropical small mountainous river systems and adjacent coastal waters of the Caribbean

Recent studies have shown that small mountainous rivers (SMRs) may act as sources of aged and/or refractory carbon (C) to the coastal ocean, which may increase organic C burial at sea and subsidize coastal food webs and heterotrophy. However, the characteristics and spatial and temporal variability of C and organic matter (OM) exported from tropical SMR systems remain poorly constrained. To address this, the abundance and isotopic character (δ13C and Δ14C) of the three major C pools were measured in two Puerto Rico SMRs with catchments dominated by different land uses (agricultural vs. non-agricultural recovering forest). The abundance and character of C pools in associated estuaries and adjacent coastal waters were also examined. Riverine dissolved and particulate organic C (DOC and POC, respectively) concentrations were highly variable with respect to land use and sampling month, while dissolved inorganic C (DIC) was significantly higher at all times in the agricultural catchment. In both systems, riverine DOC and POC ranged from modern to highly aged (2,340 years before present), while DIC was always modern. The agricultural river and irrigation canals contained very old DOC (1,184 and 2,340 years before present, respectively), which is consistent with findings in temperate SMRs and indicates that these tropical SMRs provide a source of aged DOC to the ocean. During months of high river discharge, OM in estuarine and coastal waters had C isotope signatures reflective of direct terrestrial input, indicating that relatively unaltered OM is transported to the coastal ocean at these times. This is also consistent with findings in temperate SMRs and indicates that C transported to the coastal ocean by SMRs may differ from that of larger rivers because it is exported from smaller catchments that have steeper terrains and fewer land-use types.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2017

Sampling bees in tropical forests and agroecosystems: A review

Bees are the predominant pollinating taxa, providing a critical ecosystem service upon which many angiosperms rely for successful reproduction. Available data suggests that bee populations worldwide are declining, but scarce data in tropical regions precludes assessing their status and distribution, impact on ecological services, and response to management actions. Herein, we reviewed >150 papers that used six common sampling methods (pan traps, baits, Malaise traps, sweep nets, timed observations and aspirators) to better understand their strengths and weaknesses, and help guide method selection to meet research objectives and development of multi-species monitoring approaches. Several studies evaluated the effectiveness of sweep nets, pan traps, and malaise traps, but only one evaluated timed observations, and none evaluated aspirators. Only five studies compared two or more of the remaining four sampling methods to each other. There was little consensus regarding which method would be most reliable for sampling multiple species. However, we recommend that if the objective of the study is to estimate abundance or species richness, malaise traps, pan traps and sweep nets are the most effective sampling protocols in open tropical systems; conversely, malaise traps, nets and baits may be the most effective in forests. Declining bee populations emphasize the critical need in method standardization and reporting precision. Moreover, we recommend reporting a catchability coefficient, a measure of the interaction between the resource (bee) abundance and catching effort. Melittologists could also consider existing methods, such as occupancy models, to quantify changes in distribution and abundance after modeling heterogeneity in trapping probability, and consider the possibility of developing monitoring frameworks that draw from multiple sources of data.

Journal of Insect Conservation↗

USGS1983

Latest Oligocene through early middle Miocene diatom biostratigraphy of the eastern tropical Pacific

Study of DSDP Sites 71, 77, and 495 has allowed the development of a refined diatom biostratigraphy for the latest Oligocene through early middle Miocene of the eastern tropical Pacific which is well correlated to the low-latitude zonations for planktonic foraminifers, coccoliths, and radiolarians. Six zones and 7 subzones are proposed, and correlation with high-latitude diatoms zonations for the North Pacific, the Norwegian Sea, and the Southern Ocean is suggested by the discovery of selected diatoms in these tropical sediments which were previously thought to be restricted to high latitudes. Six new species and one new variety of diatoms which are stratigraphically useful are proposed: Actinocyclus hajosiae , n. sp., A. radionovae , n. sp., Coscinodiscus blysmos , n. sp., C. praenodulifer , n. sp., Craspedodiscus rydei , n. sp., Thalassiosira bukryi , n. sp., and Coscinodiscus lewisianus var. robustus n. var.

Marine Micropaleontology↗

USGS2015

Stable-isotope and solute-chemistry approaches to flow characterization in a forested tropical watershed, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

The prospect of changing climate has led to uncertainty about the resilience of forested mountain watersheds in the tropics. In watersheds where frequent, high rainfall provides ample runoff, we often lack understanding of how the system will respond under conditions of decreased rainfall or drought. Factors that govern water supply, such as recharge rates and groundwater storage capacity, may be poorly quantified. This paper describes 8-year data sets of water stable isotope composition ( δ 2 H and δ 18 O) of precipitation (4 sites) and a stream (1 site), and four contemporaneous stream sample sets of solute chemistry and isotopes, used to investigate watershed response to precipitation inputs in the 1780-ha Río Mameyes basin in the Luquillo Mountains of northeastern Puerto Rico. Extreme δ 2 H and δ 18 O values from low-pressure storm systems and the deuterium excess ( d -excess) were useful tracers of watershed response in this tropical system. A hydrograph separation experiment performed in June 2011 yielded different but complementary information from stable isotope and solute chemistry data. The hydrograph separation results indicated that 36% of the storm rain that reached the soil surface left the watershed in a very short time as runoff. Weathering-derived solutes indicated near-stream groundwater was displaced into the stream at the beginning of the event, followed by significant dilution. The more biologically active solutes exhibited a net flushing behavior. The d- excess analysis suggested that streamflow typically has a recent rainfall component (∼25%) with transit time less than the sampling resolution of 7 days, and a more well-mixed groundwater component (∼75%). The contemporaneous stream sample sets showed an overall increase in dissolved solute concentrations with decreasing elevation that may be related to groundwater inputs, different geology, and slope position. A considerable amount of water from rain events runs off as quickflow and bypasses subsurface watershed flowpaths, and better understanding of shallow hillslope and deeper groundwater processes in the watershed will require sub-weekly data and detailed transit time modeling. A combined isotopic and solute chemistry approach can guide further studies to a more comprehensive model of the hydrology, and inform decisions for managing water supply with future changes in climate and land use.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2021

Marine ecotourism for small pelagics as a source of alternative income generating activities to fisheries in a tropical community

Overharvest has led to marine ecosystem degradation and declining fishery catches in many tropical communities. To allow stocks to recover and provide increased flows of food and income, reductions in fishing effort are necessary. The development of Alternative Income Generating Activities can help to reduce the economic reliance of coastal communities on fishing, potentially reducing pressure on fish stocks. Here we assess the local conditions which have enabled the creation of Alternative Income Generating Activities to fishing based on marine ecotourism in Moalboal, Philippines. Importantly, while marine ecotourism typically centers around charismatic megafauna, a combination of nearshore fringing reefs, the establishment of nearshore marine protected areas and the occurrence of a massive herring aggregation provide a large tourism draw to this community. Using a combination of regional and local economic statistics and stakeholder surveys, we implement an economic valuation of the Moalboal marine ecotourism for 2018 and compare this valuation to an independent estimate of the extractive value of the herring aggregation. The Moalboal case indicates that a combination of strong community engagement in the governance of the ecotourism resource, a network of locally managed marine protected areas and the retention and distribution of economic benefits within the local community have led to a significant marine ecotourism sector. We contextualize these conditions into a set of potential enabling conditions for marine ecotourism as an Alternative Income Generating Activity to fishing to contribute insights to diversifying livelihood opportunities beyond extractive fishing for coastal communities in the tropics.

Moalboal, Cebu Island↗

USGS2010

Cyclic changes in Pennsylvanian paleoclimate and effects on floristic dynamics in tropical Pangaea

Wetland floras narrowly define perceptions of Pennsylvanian tropical ecosystems, the so-called Coal Age. Such wetlands reflect humid to perhumid climate, leading to characterizations of Pennsylvanian tropics as everwet, swampy. These views are biased by the high preservation potential of wetlands. Sedimentation patterns, paleosols, and fossil floras indicate the presence of vegetation tolerant of subhumid to dry-subhumid, perhaps semi-arid climate in basins between peat formation times. Understanding the significance of this seasonally-dry vegetation has suffered from conceptual and terminological confusion. A clearer view has emerged as models for framing the data have improved. Basinal floras typical of seasonally-dry conditions, relatively low soil moisture regimes, are well documented but mainly from isolated deposits. Some of the earliest, dominated by primitive pteridosperms ("Fl??zfern" floras), occur in clastic rocks between European Early Pennsylvanian coal beds. Later Early Pennsylvanian, fern-cordaitalean vegetation, different from coal floras, is preserved in marine goniatite bullions. Conifers are first suggested by late Mississippian Potoniesporites pollen. About the same time, in North America, broadleaf foliage, Lesleya and Megalopteris occur in basin-margin settings, on drought-prone limestone substrates. The best known, xeromorphic floras found between coal beds appear in the Middle through Late Pennsylvanian, containing conifers, cordaitaleans, and pteridosperms. The Middle Pennsylvanian appearances of this flora are mainly allochthonous, though parautochthonous occurrences have been reported. Parautochthonous assemblages are mostly Late Pennsylvanian. The conifer flora became dominant in western and central Pangaean equatorial lowlands in earliest Permian. Location of the humid-perhumid wetland flora during periods of relative dryness, though rarely discussed, is as, or more, perplexing than the spatial location of seasonally-dry floras through time - wetland plants had few migratory options and possibly survived in small refugia, within and outside of basins. Coupled oscillations in climate, sea level, and vegetation were driven most likely by glacial-interglacial fluctuations, perhaps controlled by orbital cyclicity. ?? 2010.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2007

Evaluation of a non-point source pollution model, AnnAGNPS, in a tropical watershed

Impaired water quality caused by human activity and the spread of invasive plant and animal species has been identified as a major factor of degradation of coastal ecosystems in the tropics. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of AnnAGNPS (Annualized Non-Point Source Pollution Model), in simulating runoff and soil erosion in a 48 km2 watershed located on the Island of Kauai, Hawaii. The model was calibrated and validated using 2 years of observed stream flow and sediment load data. Alternative scenarios of spatial rainfall distribution and canopy interception were evaluated. Monthly runoff volumes predicted by AnnAGNPS compared well with the measured data (R2 = 0.90, P < 0.05); however, up to 60% difference between the actual and simulated runoff were observed during the driest months (May and July). Prediction of daily runoff was less accurate (R2 = 0.55, P < 0.05). Predicted and observed sediment yield on a daily basis was poorly correlated (R2 = 0.5, P < 0.05). For the events of small magnitude, the model generally overestimated sediment yield, while the opposite was true for larger events. Total monthly sediment yield varied within 50% of the observed values, except for May 2004. Among the input parameters the model was most sensitive to the values of ground residue cover and canopy cover. It was found that approximately one third of the watershed area had low sediment yield (0-1 t ha-1 y-1), and presented limited erosion threat. However, 5% of the area had sediment yields in excess of 5 t ha-1 y-1. Overall, the model performed reasonably well, and it can be used as a management tool on tropical watersheds to estimate and compare sediment loads, and identify "hot spots" on the landscape. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2008

Soil nutrient-landscape relationships in a lowland tropical rainforest in Panama

Soils play a crucial role in biogeochemical cycles as spatially distributed sources and sinks of nutrients. Any spatial patterns depend on soil forming processes, our understanding of which is still limited, especially in regards to tropical rainforests. The objective of our study was to investigate the effects of landscape properties, with an emphasis on the geometry of the land surface, on the spatial heterogeneity of soil chemical properties, and to test the suitability of soil-landscape modeling as an appropriate technique to predict the spatial variability of exchangeable K and Mg in a humid tropical forest in Panama. We used a design-based, stratified sampling scheme to collect soil samples at 108 sites on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Stratifying variables are lithology, vegetation and topography. Topographic variables were generated from high-resolution digital elevation models with a grid size of 5 m. We took samples from five depths down to 1 m, and analyzed for total and exchangeable K and Mg. We used simple explorative data analysis techniques to elucidate the importance of lithology for soil total and exchangeable K and Mg. Classification and Regression Trees (CART) were adopted to investigate importance of topography, lithology and vegetation for the spatial distribution of exchangeable K and Mg and with the intention to develop models that regionalize the point observations using digital terrain data as explanatory variables. Our results suggest that topography and vegetation do not control the spatial distribution of the selected soil chemical properties at a landscape scale and lithology is important to some degree. Exchangeable K is distributed equally across the study area indicating that other than landscape processes, e.g. biogeochemical processes, are responsible for its spatial distribution. Lithology contributes to the spatial variation of exchangeable Mg but controlling variables could not be detected. The spatial variation of soil total K and Mg is mainly influenced by lithology. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2016

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

Global and Planetary Change↗