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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS1974

Craters on Earth, Moon, and Mars: Multivariate classification and mode of origin

Testing extraterrestrial craters and candidate terrestrial analogs for morphologic similitude is treated as a problem in numerical taxonomy. According to a principal-components solution and a cluster analysis, 402 representative craters on the Earth, the Moon, and Mars divide into two major classes of contrasting shapes and modes of origin. Craters of net accumulation of material (cratered lunar domes, Martian “calderas,” and all terrestrial volcanoes except maars and tuff rings) group apart from craters of excavation (terrestrial meteorite impact and experimental explosion craters, typical Martian craters, and all other lunar craters). Maars and tuff rings belong to neither group but are transitional. The classification criteria are four independent attributes of topographic geometry derived from seven descriptive variables by the principal-components transformation. Morphometric differences between crater bowl and raised rim constitute the strongest of the four components. Although single topographic variables cannot confidently predict the genesis of individual extraterrestrial craters, multivariate statistical models constructed from several variables can distinguish consistently between large impact craters and volcanoes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2020

Informing amphibian conservation efforts with abundance-based metapopulation models

Science-based management strategies are needed to halt or reverse the global decline of amphibians. In many cases, sound management requires reliable models built using monitoring data. Historically, monitoring and statistical modeling efforts have focused on estimating occupancy using detection–nondetection data. Spatial occupancy models are useful for studying colonization–extinction dynamics, but richer insights can be gained from estimating abundance and density-dependent demographic rates. We developed an integrated abundance-based metapopulation model of the processes contributing to spatiotemporal variation in patch population density. We fit our model to a combination of detection–nondetection and count data from a 14-yr study of a reintroduced metapopulation of federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). Pond-specific population growth rate was influenced by pond hydroperiod and frog density, such that permanent and semipermanent ponds with low densities of adult frogs experienced the highest annual population growth rates. Immigration rate declined as the distance among ponds increased. After reintroduction in 2003, metapopulation-level abundance increased and appeared to stabilize around 1300 adult frogs (95% CI = 1192–1471) by year 2015. Further, changes in metapopulation abundance were driven mostly by changes in abundance at a few ponds. These high-density populations, which would not have been identifiable with traditional occupancy-based metapopulation models, are likely especially important for species recovery in the area. Abundance-based metapopulation models can be widely applied to inform conservation efforts, by providing higher quality information needed to prioritize habitat patches for management and can be used to make more accurate predictions of metapopulation extinction risk.

Herpetologica↗
USGS2014

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project, and satellite and surface observations of fuel conditions in the form of the Fire Potential Index, to estimate two aspects of fire danger: 1) the probability that a 1 acre ignition will result in a 100+ acre fire, and 2) the probabilities of having at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 large fires within a Predictive Services Area in the forthcoming week. These statistical processes are the main thrust of the paper and are used to produce two daily national forecasts that are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and via the Wildland Fire Assessment System. A validation study of our forecasts for the 2013 fire season demonstrated good agreement between observed and forecasted values.

Book↗
USGS2020

Bayesian modeling of non-stationary, univariate, spatial data for the Earth sciences

Some Earth science data, such as geochemical measurements of element concentrations, are non-stationary—the mean and the standard deviation vary spatially. It is important to estimate the spatial variations in both statistics because such information is indicative of geological and other Earth processes. To this end, an estimation method is formulated as a Bayesian hierarchical model. The method represents the spatially varying mean and the spatially varying standard deviation with basis functions; this formulation implicitly accounts for a spatially varying covariance function. A unique advantage of this method is that it can map the mean, the standard deviation, quantiles, and exceedance probabilities. The method is demonstrated by mapping titanium concentrations, which are measured in the coastal plain of the southeastern United States. Various checks demonstrate that the model fits the data and that the estimated statistics are geologically plausible.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2025

Bayesian mapping of regionally grouped, sparse, univariate earth science data

Some earth science data are naturally grouped by region, and it is often desirable to map these data by region. However, if there are only a few samples within each region, then the map should be smoothed in an appropriate way to mitigate the problems that arise from having only a few samples. A smoothing algorithm based on a Bayesian hierarchical model is developed and presented in this report. This algorithm has several features that make it especially suitable for mapping earth science data: it can account for measurements that are censored, it can process multiple datasets with different measurement errors and different censoring thresholds, and it can calculate the uncertainty in any statistic that is mapped. The algorithm is demonstrated by mapping gold concentrations that are measured in streambed sediments in the Taylor Mountains quadrangle in southwestern Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center--providing comprehensive earth science for complex societal issues

Minerals in the environment and products manufactured from mineral materials are all around us and we use and come into contact with them every day. They impact our way of life and the health of all that lives. Minerals are critical to the Nation's economy and knowing where future mineral resources will come from is important for sustaining the Nation's economy and national security. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP) provides scientific information for objective resource assessments and unbiased research results on mineral resource potential, production and consumption statistics, as well as environmental consequences of mining. The MRP conducts this research to provide information needed for land planners and decisionmakers about where mineral commodities are known and suspected in the earth's crust and about the environmental consequences of extracting those commodities. As part of the MRP scientists of the Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center (WMERSC or 'Center' herein) coordinate the development of national, geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-resource databases and the migration of existing databases to standard models and formats that are available to both internal and external users. The unique expertise developed by Center scientists over many decades in response to mineral-resource-related issues is now in great demand to support applications such as public health research and remediation of environmental hazards that result from mining and mining-related activities. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center Results of WMERSC research provide timely and unbiased analyses of minerals and inorganic materials to (1) improve stewardship of public lands and resources; (2) support national and international economic and security policies; (3) sustain prosperity and improve our quality of life; and (4) protect and improve public health, safety, and environmental quality. The MRP supports approximately 40 USGS research specialists who utilize cooperative agreements with universities, industry, and other governmental agencies to support their collaborative research and information exchange. Scientists of the WMERSC study how and where non-fuel mineral resources form and are concentrated in the earth's crust, where mineral resources might be found in the future, and how mineral materials interact with the environment to affect human and ecosystem health. Natural systems (ecosystems) are complex - our understanding of how ecosystems operate requires collecting and synthesizing large amounts of geologic, geochemical, biologic, hydrologic, and meteorological information. Scientists in the Center strive to understand the interplay of various processes and how they affect the structure, composition, and health of ecosystems. Such understanding, which is then summarized in publicly available reports, is used to address and solve a wide variety of issues that are important to society and the economy. WMERSC scientists have extensive national and international experience in these scientific specialties and capabilities - they have collaborated with many Federal, State, and local agencies; with various private sector organizations; as well as with foreign countries and organizations. Nearly every scientific and societal challenge requires a different combination of scientific skills and capabilities. With their breadth of scientific specialties and capabilities, the scientists of the WMERSC can provide scientifically sound approaches to a wide range of societal challenges and issues. The following sections describe examples of important issues that have been addressed by scientists in the Center, the methods employed, and the relevant conclusions. New directions are inevitable as societal needs change over time. Scientists of the WMERSC have a diverse set of skills and capabilities and are proficient in the collection and integration of

Circular↗
USGS2002

Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2007

MT+, integrating magnetotellurics to determine earth structure, physical state, and processes

As one of the few deep-earth imaging techniques, magnetotellurics provides information on both the structure and physical state of the crust and upper mantle. Magnetotellurics is sensitive to electrical conductivity, which varies within the earth by many orders of magnitude and is modified by a range of earth processes. As with all geophysical techniques, magnetotellurics has a non-unique inverse problem and has limitations in resolution and sensitivity. As such, an integrated approach, either via the joint interpretation of independent geophysical models, or through the simultaneous inversion of independent data sets is valuable, and at times essential to an accurate interpretation. Magnetotelluric data and models are increasingly integrated with geological, geophysical and geochemical information. This review considers recent studies that illustrate the ways in which such information is combined, from qualitative comparisons to statistical correlation studies to multi-property inversions. Also emphasized are the range of problems addressed by these integrated approaches, and their value in elucidating earth structure, physical state, and processes. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Predicting Lake Huron Dreissena spp. spatial distribution patterns from environmental characteristics

Invasive dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) have altered Great Lakes ecosystems through a multitude of effects on benthic habitats, food web structure, and nutrient cycling. This study explores whether spatially continuous geographic data of environmental factors can be utilized to predict Dreissena spp. spatial distributions on a lake-wide scale. Categorical variables were also assessed for significant relationships with Dreissena spp. biomass. Point observations from the 2017 Lake Huron benthic survey under the Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) were utilized for in situ measurements of dreissenid presence and biomass at 119 sites across Lake Huron. Basin, bathymetric zone, and tributary influence were found to have statistically significant relationships to dreissenid biomass. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model (ROC score 0.707) was developed to spatially predict dreissenid presence probability across Lake Huron from six environmental explanatory variables: April, May, and October chlorophyll, June dissolved organic carbon, January bottom temperature, and May bottom temperature. The importance of food availability and bottom temperature illuminated relationships between dreissenid mussels and periods of benthic-pelagic mixing in the spring and fall seasons. Future models could be improved through advancements in survey technology for improved geographic characterization of mussel habitat characteristics and environmental constraints.

Lake Huron↗
USGS2017

Optical and biochemical properties of a southwest Florida whiting event

“Whiting” in oceanography is a term used to describe a sharply defined patch of water that contains high levels of suspended, fine-grained calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). Whitings have been reported in many oceanic and lake environments, and recently have been reported in southwest Florida coastal waters. Here, field and laboratory measurements were used to study optical, biological, and chemical properties of whiting waters off southwest Florida. No significant difference was found in chlorophyll a concentrations between whiting and outside waters (non-whiting water), but average particle backscattering coefficients in whiting waters were double those in outside waters, and remote sensing reflectance in whiting waters was higher at all wavelengths (400–700 nm). While other potential causes cannot be completely ruled out, particle composition and biochemical differences between sampled whiting water, contiguous water, and outside water indicate a biologically precipitated mode of whiting formation. Taxonomic examination of marine phytoplankton samples collected during a whiting event revealed a community dominated by autotrophic picoplankton and a small (<10 μm), centric diatom species, identified as Thalassiosira sp. through the use of scanning electron microscopy. Amorphous to fully formed crystals of CaCO 3 were observed along the girdle bands of Thalassiosira sp. cells and autotrophic picoplankton cells. Although carbonate parameters differed from whiting and contiguous to outside water, more sampling is needed to determine if these results are statistically significant.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Paleohydrologic phenomena recorded by lake sediments

Hydrologic phenomena are dynamic, so their understanding and prediction are difficult and challenging. Many are cyclic, ranging from diurnal, seasonal, and annual cycles to climatic fluctuations of many hundreds or thousands of years. Predicting the magnitude and recurrence intervals of long-term fluctuations of these phenomena is a primary concern of hydrologists. The best data upon which to base predictions are those that directly measure a hydrologic phenomenon, such as stream discharge, lake level, and precipitation. Programs for collection of these data over a large area on a scientific basis, however, are less than 100 years old-not a very sound statistical base for predicting events that have recurrence intervals of at least that long.

Earth and Space Science↗
USGS2001

Statistics for wildlifers: how much and what kind?

Quantitative methods are playing increasingly important roles in wildlife ecology and, ultimately, management. This change poses a challenge for wildlife practitioners and students who are not well-educated in mathematics and statistics. Here we give our opinions on what wildlife biologists should know about statistics, while recognizing that not everyone is inclined mathematically. For those who are, we recommend that they take mathematics coursework at least through calculus and linear algebra. They should take statistics courses that are focused conceptually , stressing the Why rather than the How of doing statistics. For less mathematically oriented wildlifers, introductory classes in statistical techniques will furnish some useful background in basic methods but may provide little appreciation of when the methods are appropriate. These wildlifers will have to rely much more on advice from statisticians. Far more important than knowing how to analyze data is an understanding of how to obtain and recognize good data. Regardless of the statistical education they receive, all wildlife biologists should appreciate the importance of controls, replication, and randomization in studies they conduct. Understanding these concepts requires little mathematical sophistication, but is critical to advancing the science of wildlife ecology.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2001

Planetary Interactive GIS-on-the-Web Analyzable Database (PIGWAD)

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) in Flagstaff, Arizona is producing a Web-based, user-friendly interface that integrates powerful Geographic Information Systems (GIS) statistical and spatial relational tools for analyses of planetary datasets. The interface, known as “Planetary Interactive GIS-on-the-Web Analyzable Database” (PIGWAD), provides database support for the research and academic planetary science communities, particularly for geologic mapping and other surface-related investigations.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2018

Evaluation of internet surveys for conducting statewide angler surveys in South Dakota

Stakeholder information is critical for effective fisheries management. Agencies have traditionally used infrequent mail surveys to collect human dimensions data. Internet surveys provide cost savings, but are associated with caution due to data quality issues. To improve study validity, survey access can be controlled using email invitations, but because these addresses are voluntary, results may not be applicable to the entire population. Additionally, internet surveys typically have lower response rates than mail surveys, thus, a greater potential for nonresponse bias. To identify potential coverage and nonresponse biases in information typically collected by statewide angler surveys, we emailed a link to a web-based survey to all anglers who provided South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks (SDGFP) with an email address at the end of the 2011 and 2012 fishing seasons (December 31). Next, we mailed the same questionnaire to both a random sample of anglers not providing an email address and a sample of non-respondents to the internet survey. Internet survey results were similar to both mail surveys for variables SDGFP typically monitors via statewide angler surveys with the exception of slightly over representing male anglers and younger anglers; however, these slight biases can be adjusted by weighting procedures. Results from this study were used by SDGFP to design a web-based, annual statewide angler survey that would collect angler information statistically comparable to information collected by traditional statewide mail surveys.

South Dakota↗
USGS2008

Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) in public and private wells in New Hampshire: Occurrence, factors, and possible implications

Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) concentrations ???0.2 ??g/L were found in samples of untreated water in 18% of public-supply wells (n = 284) and 9.1% of private domestic wells (n = 264) sampled in 2005 and 2006 in New Hampshire. In counties that used reformulated gasoline (RFG), MTBE occurred at or above 0.2 ??g/L in 30% of public- and 17% of private-supply wells. Additionally, 52% of public-supply wells collocated with fuel storage and 71% of mobile home park wells had MTBE. MTBE occurrence in public-supply wells was predicted by factors such as proximity to sources of fuel, land use, and population density, as well as low pH and distance from mapped lineaments. RFG use, land-use variables, and pH were important predictors of private-well MTBE occurrence. Variables representing sources of MTBE, such as the distance to known fuel sources, were not significant predictors of MTBE occurrence in private-supply wells. It is hypothesized that private wells may become contaminated from the collective effects of sources in high population areas and from undocumented incidental releases from onsite or proximal gasoline use. From 2003 to 2005, MTBE occurrence decreased in 63 public-supply wells and increased in 60 private-supply wells, but neither trend was statistically significant. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2000

Long-term impacts of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on sea otters, assessed through age-dependent mortality patterns

We use age distributions of sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) found dead on beaches of western Prince William Sound, Alaska, between 1976 and 1998 in conjunction with time-varying demographic models to test for lingering effects from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our results show that sea otters in this area had decreased survival rates in the years following the spill and that the effects of the spill on annual survival increased rather than dissipated for older animals. Otters born after the 1989 spill were affected less than those alive in March 1989, but do show continuing negative effects through 1998. Population-wide effects of the spill appear to have slowly dissipated through time, due largely to the loss of cohorts alive during the spill. Our results demonstrate that the difficult-to-detect long-term impacts of environmental disasters may still be highly significant and can be rigorously analyzed by using a combination of population data, modeling techniques, and statistical analyses.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2003

Spread of hybridization between native westslope cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, and nonnative rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss

We examined spatial and temporal patterns of hybridization between native westslope cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi , and nonnative rainbow trout, O. mykiss , in streams of the Flathead River system in Montana, U.S.A. We detected hybridization in 24 of 42 sites sampled from 1998 to 2001. We found new Oncorhynchus mykiss introgression in seven of 11 sample populations that were determined to be nonhybridized in 1984. Patterns of spatial autocorrelation and linkage disequilibrium indicated that hybridization is spreading among sites and is advancing primarily via post-F 1 hybrids. Although hybridized populations were distributed widely throughout the study area, the genetic contribution from O. mykiss decreased with increasing upstream distance from the Flathead River mainstem, suggesting that O. mykiss introgression is spreading in an upstream direction. The spread of hybridization may be constrained more by demographic than by environmental factors, given that ( i ) hybridized populations generally encompassed the range of environmental variability in nonhybridized populations, and ( ii ) hybridization status was more strongly associated with neighborhood statistics than measured environmental gradients.

Montana↗
USGS2007

The art and science of weed mapping

Land managers need cost-effective and informative tools for non-native plant species management. Many local, state, and federal agencies adopted mapping systems designed to collect comparable data for the early detection and monitoring of non-native species. We compared mapping information to statistically rigorous, plot-based methods to better understand the benefits and compatibility of the two techniques. Mapping non-native species locations provided a species list, associated species distributions, and infested area for subjectively selected survey sites. The value of this information may be compromised by crude estimates of cover and incomplete or biased estimations of species distributions. Incorporating plot-based assessments guided by a stratified-random sample design provided a less biased description of non-native species distributions and increased the comparability of data over time and across regions for the inventory, monitoring, and management of non-native and native plant species.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗