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USGS2025

Earth Mapping Resources Initiative protocols—Sampling hard-rock mine waste and perpetual mine water sources

Supporting the overarching goal to evaluate critical minerals nationwide, the mine waste characterization effort in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Mapping Resources Initiative has created a series of protocols to standardize sampling carried out under this effort by the participating State geological surveys and their cooperators. The protocols are based on published, reviewed methods that can be deployed in the field. The protocols include (1) collecting and processing composite samples of mine and mill waste, including tailings, waste rock, gangue, heap leach piles, ore stockpiles, slag, or other mineralized and processed materials and (2) collecting and preserving water samples from perpetual or long-term mine water sources. The protocols also specify information to document on field sheets and detail the collection of geospatial data. The analytical methods used by the USGS and USGS contract laboratories are described in this report, including the data delivery pathway for USGS-derived data.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2025

Quantitative mineral resource assessment of lithium pegmatite deposits in the Appalachian Orogen, USA

Lithium is classified as a U.S. critical mineral commodity, and its demand is projected to drastically increase through 2040, driven by electric vehicle production and energy storage applications (IEA 2021).Most global lithium production is not in the United States increasing vulnerability to a supply disruption. The U.S. Geological Survey is actively assessing domestic lithium deposits including lithium-bearing pegmatites in the Appalachian orogen. Permissive tracts for lithium pegmatite deposits were delineated by integrating lithological, tectonic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral occurrence data. The geospatial data and permissive tracts were used to estimate the number of undiscovered lithium pegmatite deposits. Estimates were then integrated into probabilistic simulations along with a new global lithium pegmatite grade and tonnage dataset to quantify potential contained undiscovered lithium resources. An economic filter was used to estimate the amount of potentially recoverable undiscovered resources. Preliminary computations for the northern Appalachians, including application of the economic filter to the median recoverable contained resource, yields 900,000 metric tons of Li 2 O that correspond to enough Li 2 O to replace 127 years of import reliance at the current rate (7,100 t Li 2 O/yr; USGS, 2025). For the southern Appalachians, preliminary computations yielded 1,430,000 metric tons of Li 2 O, which corresponds to 201 years of import reliance.

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Maine, Ma↗
USGS2025

Machine learning provides reconnaissance-type estimates of carbon dioxide storage resources in oil and gas reservoirs

Oil and gas reservoirs represent suitable containers to sequester carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in a supercritical state because they are accessible, reservoir properties are known, and they previously contained stored buoyant fluids. However, planners must quantify the relative magnitude of the CO 2 storage resource in these reservoirs to formulate a comprehensive strategy for CO 2 mitigation. Even reconnaissance-type estimates of CO 2 storage resources of known oil and gas reservoirs may require complicated calculations involving 1) estimates of recoverable oil and gas, 2) reservoir properties (depth, temperature, pressure, etc.), and 3) the physical qualities of the retained fluids. We demonstrate the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to bypass these computations to yield more rapid estimates of CO 2 storage resources in reservoirs capable of hosting CO 2 in a supercritical state. ML algorithms are computationally efficient because they do not impose the strong assumptions on the data-generating process that standard statistical or engineering procedures require. Further, ML algorithms can capture highly complex, particularly nonlinear, relationships among predictor variables. We demonstrate the application of four different ML algorithms using data from onshore and offshore oil and gas reservoirs in Europe, and show they perform well when predictions are compared to engineering estimates. The proposed methods and models provide an effective and novel way to more rapidly and directly determine the subsurface CO 2 storage capacity of oil and gas reservoirs around the world, information that operators, researchers, and policymakers alike require to meet energy transition and decarbonization goals.

Frontiers in Enviornmental Science↗
USGS2026

Effect of mineral deposit data on predictions from the three-part approach to quantitative mineral resource assessment—A study of 16 previous U.S. Geological Survey assessments

The three-part approach to quantitative mineral resource assessment requires information about the properties of undiscovered mineral deposits in an assessment area. These properties are unknown, so the properties of discovered mineral deposits of the same mineral deposit type are used instead. In the three-part approach, these discovered mineral deposits come from around the world, and their properties constitute the pooled data for that mineral deposit type. Alternatively, these discovered mineral deposits could come from the assessment area, and their properties constitute the tract data for that mineral deposit type. Tract data may be more representative of the undiscovered mineral deposits in the assessment area than the pooled data. The goal of this study was to determine whether resource predictions using pooled data are equivalent to resource predictions using tract data. To this end, 16 previous U.S Geological Survey assessments were studied. For each assessment, resources were predicted for one undiscovered mineral deposit in the assessment area. One set of predictions used pooled data, and another used tract data. The two sets of predictions were compared with an equivalence test, using the six assessment statistics that are commonly reported for mineral resource assessments. Practical equivalence is the condition that two corresponding assessment statistics are within a factor of 1.5 of one another. For each of 2 assessments, all 6 assessment statistics were practically equivalent. For both assessments, the assessment statistics from the pooled data, relative to the corresponding assessment statistics from the tract data, ranged from 1.30 times smaller to 1.03 times larger. For each of 14 assessments, 1 or more of the 6 assessment statistics were not practically equivalent. The assessment statistics from the pooled data, relative to the corresponding assessment statistics from the tract data, ranged from 26.6 times smaller to 5.53 times larger. The use of pooled data has been a standard procedure in the three-part approach since at least 1986. The 16 assessments in this study are not a representative sample of those prior assessments that used pooled data. So, it is inappropriate to use the study results to infer whether pooled data affected the resource predictions for those prior assessments.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of the lithium resource in the Smackover Formation brines of southern Arkansas using machine learning

Global demand for lithium, the primary component of lithium-ion batteries, greatly exceeds known supplies, and this imbalance is expected to increase as the world transitions away from fossil fuel energy sources. High concentrations of lithium in brines have been observed in the Smackover Formation in southern Arkansas (>400 milligrams per liter). We used published and newly collected brine lithium concentration data to train a random forest machine-learning model using geologic, geochemical, and temperature explanatory variables and create a map of predicted lithium concentrations in Smackover Formation brines across southern Arkansas. Using these predicted lithium maps with reservoir parameters and geologic information, we calculated that there are 5.1 to 19 million tons of lithium in Smackover Formation brines in southern Arkansas, which represents 35 to 136% of the current US lithium resource estimate. Based on these calculations, in 2022, 5000 tons of dissolved lithium were brought to the surface within brines as waste streams of the oil, gas, and bromine industries.

Arkansas↗
USGS2025

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California↗
USGS2025

The role of alkali bicarbonate-sulfate brines in the genesis of carbonatite REE resources at the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, Wyoming

Rare-earth element (REE) resources in the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, Wyoming, are hosted in a variably leached carbonatite dike swarm spatially related to bodies of diatreme breccia. This study examines fluid inclusions in carbonatite dikes, peripheral fluorite breccias, and smoky quartz veins to reconstruct the physiochemical conditions of REE mineralization. Results reveal a multi-stage evolution of carbonatitic fluids: 1) high-temperature (330–432°C), CO 2 -rich magmatic fluids, 2) REE-enriched alkali bicarbonate-sulfate brines, and 3) low-temperature meteoric (117–182°C) or diluted magmatic fluids. Multiphase inclusions (stage-2) contain burbankite, nahcolite, and alkali sulfate daughter crystals, linking the brines to early burbankite [(Na,Ca) 3 (Sr,Ba,REE) 3 (CO 3 ) 5 ] mineralization in carbonatite. REE mobility has been linked to the stability of aqueous complexes with ligands such as Cl-, SO 4 2- , and HCO 3 - . However, light REEs were not initially transported significant distances, rather they crystallized as burbankite from brines or brine-melts associated with the carbonatite magma. Crystallization of burbankite removed Na from the system, leaving residual fluids with high K/Na ratios and promoting potassic fenitization throughout the complex. Fractionation of light and heavy REEs and involvement of low temperature (<300°C), high K/Na bicarbonate brines may have facilitated transport and formation of peripheral occurrences that are more enriched in heavy REEs at Bear Lodge.

Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Background and geologic model for the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered conventional petroleum resources in the Norphlet Formation, U.S. Gulf Coast

The Upper Jurassic Norphlet Formation is a stratigraphic unit located in the subsurface of the United States Gulf coastal plain and offshore Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). The Norphlet consists of clastic sediments derived from the southern Appalachian highlands, and was deposited in a continental dryland setting on the margins of the early Gulf of America rift basin. The formation contains a variety of sedimentary facies, including facies representing updip alluvial fans, wadis, red beds, and a widespread erg, or eolian sand sea. The erg facies form the primary reservoirs from which hydrocarbons sourced from the overlying Smackover Formation are produced. Development of the Norphlet began in earnest in the late 1960s, with new discoveries, including large fields at Flomaton, Hatters Pond, and Mobile Bay, continuing through the 2000s–2010s with the discovery of major oil fields in the offshore Desoto Canyon area. Onshore, Norphlet hydrocarbon traps typically are faulted salt anticlines, although many fields also have a stratigraphic trapping component because of the preservation of dune-scale bedforms. Thermal maturity across the Norphlet play varies significantly with depth, resulting in oil production transitioning downdip to natural gas liquids production, then dry gas production; production depths reach to greater than 21,000 feet. A 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment divided the Norphlet into four conventional assessment units defined by the type and frequency of trapping mechanisms, sedimentology, and thermal maturity of each area, with little potential for hydrocarbon development observed west of the Mississippi River. Although petroleum resources in the Norphlet were revised downward, it is probable that significant resources remain to be discovered.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi↗
USGS2025

Shallow geologic framework of the Mississippi Sound and the potential for sediment resources

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2026

Uranium—Deposits, production and resources, market dynamics, and supply chain risks

Introduction Interest in nuclear power for the generation of electricity has risen with the increase in the need for more diverse baseload power, enhanced energy security, and the development of new technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), which could provide power for remote areas, industrial applications, and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy received $2.7 billion in congressional funding to bolster the domestic uranium production and nuclear fuel supply chain and address reliance on imports from foreign suppliers. In 2025, the U.S. Government issued several Executive and Secretary’s orders aimed at revitalizing the U.S. nuclear sector. If SMRs are to be as widely deployed in the United States and worldwide as envisioned, demand for uranium (nuclear reactor fuel) will likely increase. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the market spot price of uranium began a decline, followed by a decrease in U.S. and global uranium exploration and mine development expenditures that led to a uranium supply deficit until 2020, when prices started to recover, prompting a resurgence in uranium exploration and development. In January of 2024, the uranium spot price rose to a 17-year high $106 (U.S. dollars) per pound of U3O8 (triuranium oxide, commonly known as “yellowcake”), which is expected to increase uranium exploration, mine development, and uranium production domestically and worldwide.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Estimation of dynamic geologic CO2 storage resources in the Illinois Basin, including effects of brine extraction, anisotropy, and hydrogeologic heterogeneity

Since the vast majority of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resources in the United States are in deep saline aquifers, optimizing the use of these saline storage resources could be crucial for efficient development of geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) resources and basin- or larger-scale deployment of GCS in the country. Maximum CO 2 injection rates can be enhanced by extracting brine from the CO 2 storage unit. However, disposal of the extracted brine is both a technological and economic challenge. The lowest-cost option would likely be reinjection of the extracted brine into another formation above or below the CO 2 storage unit. Therefore, it is important to estimate brine injectivity as it will constrain the potential to increase CO 2 injectivity at an injection site that has access to multiple geologic storage units where either CO 2 or brine can be injected. Using a simulation-optimization framework, coupled with a non-isothermal, multiphase CO 2 -water-salt equation-of-state module, we developed a computationally efficient method for evaluating optimization of simultaneous CO 2 injection, brine extraction, and brine (re)injection at hypothetical injection sites deployed across a geologic basin. The Illinois basin is ideal for testing our methodology because it contains multiple geologic storage units with seals in between them to isolate injection of CO 2 in one unit from interfering with the injection of either brine or CO 2 in another unit above or below it. In addition, we investigated the relative effects of variation in key geologic parameters as well as two reservoir structures (hydrogeologic heterogeneity/anisotropy and homogeneity/isotropy) on CO 2 injectivities and enhancement of CO 2 injectivity through extracting brine. Results suggest that permeability, depth, and especially thickness of the storage unit could be the most influential parameters determining CO 2 injectivity. They also suggest that only injecting CO 2 into the storage unit with the greatest injectivity, enhancing that unit’s injectivity by extracting brine, and disposing of the produced brine in other suitable units could maximize total CO 2 injectivity in limited regions of the basin. At the majority of simulated injection sites, however, we found that injecting CO 2 into all of the accessible and suitable storage units was more likely to maximize the CO 2 storage resource.

Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana↗
USGS2026

Spatio-temporal modeling for assessing geoenergy resources: A workflow applied to gas in place variation in coal beds

The ability to estimate spatio-temporal changes in hydrocarbon reservoir properties and energy resources within pore volumes is essential for optimizing production, reservoir management, geologic energy storage, and safety in underground mining operations. In coal seams, predicting remaining methane gas-in-place (GIP) is critical for quantifying producible gas and improving mine safety and productivity through effective ventilation planning. Although such changes are commonly evaluated using physics-based numerical simulation models, these approaches often require extensive data, calibration effort, and time. This study presents a spatio-temporal geostatistical modeling approach that bridges the gap between purely spatial models and full numerical simulations. The method is applied to a case study of coal seam degasification in the Mary Lee coal group, Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, USA, to estimate GIP evolution over time within a selected mining district. The analysis uses published data from prior natural gas production history-matching of degasification using vertical wells. Empirical spatial and temporal statistics were calculated for reservoir pressure and water saturation, and spatio-temporal variogram models were fitted to experimental variograms. These models provided the structural basis for spatio-temporal kriging, integrated with spatial estimates of time-invariant parameters (porosity, density, and thickness) to estimate GIP. This approach enabled estimation of GIP changes over time, including periods without data. Boxplots of GIP estimates indicated systematic depletion and decreasing spatial variability, reflecting the impacts of degasification. Comparison with cumulative gas production from empirical well records showed approximately 85% agreement based on a relative similarity metric. Spatio-temporal GIP estimates were also used to estimate methane emissions to longwall ventilation systems and compared with reported emissions from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, showing similar distributions (≈80%) given data limitations. Overall, this integrated modeling approach provides time-dependent GIP estimates with broader implications for resource assessment applications.

Alabama↗
USGS2026

Prioritizing resource protection and understanding potential susceptibility of springs to surficial changes in a low-temperature geothermal system

Geothermal systems are vulnerable to changes in water budget and composition, requiring science-based management. This study uses a dataset of spring water temperatures, time series of groundwater residence time tracers (tritium and carbon-14), and stable isotopes of water to understand geothermal flow in a low-temperature geothermal system in north west Colorado, United States (Steamboat Springs). The geothermal system is bisected by the Yampa River, necessitating a stream mass balance approach to quantify total discharge. Time series analysis of water temperature data provides a ranked list of features more susceptible to surficial changes, which is corroborated using time series of tritium which indicate spatially distinct patterns of mixing between modern and pre-modern groundwater. All springs contain a portion of pre-modern groundwater that is thousands to tens of thousands of years old, a period coinciding with melting of extensive Pleistocene glaciers that was likely one of the recharge sources to the geothermal system. Stream mass balance indicates that greater than 80% of the total geothermal discharge is derived from diffuse or small springs, highlighting the extensive nature of the geothermal outflow zone and the association with local geologic structures. This study provides baseline data to support management of the Steamboat Springs geothermal system and indicates the utility of these approaches in developing science-based geothermal management.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Favorability mapping for hydrothermal power resource assessments of the Great Basin, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the 2008 assessment of conventional hydrothermal resources for the Great Basin in the western United States. As part of this work, the workflow for hydrothermal resource favorability maps is being modified to integrate modern data-driven machine learning (ML) methods. Improvements include: [1] using new and refined evidence layers (features); [2] using an order of magnitude more training sites (labeled examples); [3] utilizing simple but non-linear supervised ML algorithms; [4] representing positive training sites (wells with measured heat flow) with their ordinal value proportional to the magnitude of convective upflow (i.e., low, high, or very high convective signals instead of past strategies using positive-negative labels); [5] supplementing training sites with additional sites with low convective signals to represent diverse under-sampled areas where hydrothermal systems are unlikely to exist; [6] comparing with competing approaches; and [7] utilizing Monte Carlo cross-validation to estimate and evaluate prediction uncertainty. For the new favorability map, over half of the power-producing systems (i.e., 15 of 28) are predicted in the 99th percentile of most favorable locations (i.e., the highest 1 % of favorability, corresponding to 1 % of the map area), exceeding the performance of past models that have explicitly used power plants as training sites. Previous favorability maps predicted approximately half of the power-producing hydrothermal systems above the 80th percentile (i.e., 20 % of the map area). For the new favorability map, 93 % of power-producing systems (i.e., 26 of 28) are above the 80th percentile. The power-producing systems for which the new model does not perform well are either comparatively small, low-temperature systems or systems also not predicted well by prior modeling approaches, suggesting that these few systems are unusual when compared with most power-producing systems. Focusing research on these known, seemingly different systems may yield new insights and subsequent discovery of new prospects.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2026

Neutron scattering reveals fractionation of natural gas mixtures in unconventional petroleum reservoir pores: Perspectives on energy resource recovery and storage

In unconventional petroleum reservoirs hydrocarbon fluids are hosted by both mineral and organic matter pores. These pores can have diameters that range from microns to less than a single nanometer and, for unconventional reservoirs, there is evidence that small pores ( <20 nm diameter) may constitute a large proportion of the available space. Understanding subsurface volumes and how fluids behave in them can be helpful for predicting hydrocarbon production and storage in the subsurface. One area with knowledge gaps regarding hydrocarbon behavior in small pores is the possibility for mixtures to fractionate (i.e., unmix) based on pore size or pore type. Mixture fractionation as a function of pore size could impact recovery of hydrocarbons, drive compositional shifts during production, and limit fluid storage within candidate reservoirs. To investigate natural gas fractionation in small geologic pores, we applied total neutron scattering to probe methane-ethane mixtures at reservoir pressures (up to ≈30 MPa) and temperature (60°C) within a sample from the Upper Cretaceous Niobrara Formation. Neutron scattering data reveal only minor fractionation occurs between methane and ethane in 20-nm diameter sample mesopores. Increased fractionation is observed for sample micropores, with up to 72% (±1% at 1-sigma) methane found in 2 nm diameter pores following injection of a 50%-50% methane-ethane mixture. These data provide rarely available direct experimental observations of hydrocarbon mixture behavior under nanoconfinement in a sample from an important unconventional petroleum reservoir. Our results are discussed in the context of evaluating hydrocarbon resources in unconventional reservoir meso- and micropores, reconciling observed gas composition changes during production, and more broadly, understanding subsurface pore volumes within an energy storage framework.

Fuel↗
USGS2025

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗