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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water↗
USGS2021

High elevation ice patch documents Holocene climate variability in the northern Rocky Mountains

Paleoclimate records from ice cores generally are considered to be the most direct indicators of environmental change, but are rare from mid-latitude, continental regions such as the western United States. High-elevation ice patches are known to be important archaeological archives in alpine regions and potentially could provide records important for Earth System Model evaluation and to understand linkages between climate and early human activities, but this potential largely is unexplored. Here we use a well-dated ice-core record from a shallow ice patch to investigate Rocky Mountain winter-season climate during the Holocene. Our records indicate that this ice patch consistently accumulated ice over the past 10 kyr, preserving a regionally representative climate record of stable water isotopes and ice accretion rates that documented generally cooler and wetter conditions during the early Holocene and 500 years of anomalous winter season warmth centered at 4100 cal yr BP followed by a rapid cooling and 1500 years of cooler and wetter winters.

Montana, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2017

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1,000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (¹⁴C, ²³⁴U/²³⁰Th, OSL, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes, and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2013

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.

California↗
USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Science data in support of environmental health studies in the U.S.-Mexico border region

The border region of the United States and Mexico encompasses a vast and diverse array of physical settings and habitats that include wetlands, deserts, rangeland, mountains, and forests, which are unique in terms of the diversity of their water, mineral, and biological resources. The region is interconnected economically, politically, and socially owing to its binational heritage. In 1995, nearly 11 million people lived immediately adjacent to the border. By one account, that population could more than double by 2020. This rapid population growth and consequent economic development and land-use changes are pushing the limits of environmental sustainability and quality. Infrastructure development has lagged behind the rapid growth of the region, resulting in a shortage of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial uses. These stressors threaten the quality of life in the region and raise concerns about the interdependence of environmental quality and human health. To allow for continued economic growth while protecting the area’s natural resources and fostering a high quality of life, the United States and Mexico need an improved understanding of the threats posed by these anthropogenic changes. Issues of particular concern include (1) contaminants in ground water, surface water, and biota from agricultural, municipal, and industrial activities; (2) airborne pollutants from fossil-fuel combustion and other activities; (3) contaminants from past and present mining activities and mineral deposits; and (4) pathogens, pharmaceuticals, hormones, and other contaminants released in treated and untreated human and animal wastewaters.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2021

Robust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States

Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale's climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2003

Understanding climatic impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation in the United States: Building a capacity for assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2019

Spatial and temporal variation of ecosystem properties at macroscales

Although spatial and temporal variation in ecological properties has been well-studied, crucial knowledge gaps remain for studies conducted at macroscales and for ecosystem properties related to material and energy. We test four propositions of spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem properties within a macroscale (1000 km's) extent. We fit Bayesian hierarchical models to thousands of observations from over two decades to quantify four components of variation – spatial (local and regional) and temporal (local and coherent); and to model their drivers. We found strong support for three propositions: (1) spatial variation at local and regional scales are large and roughly equal, (2) annual temporal variation is mostly local rather than coherent, and, (3) spatial variation exceeds temporal variation. Our findings imply that predicting ecosystem responses to environmental changes at macroscales requires consideration of the dominant spatial signals at both local and regional scales that may overwhelm temporal signals.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2020

Modeling soil porewater salinity in mangrove forests (Everglades, Florida, USA) impacted by hydrological restoration and a warming climate

Hydrology is a critical driver controlling mangrove wetlands structural and functional attributes at different spatial and temporal scales. Yet, human activities have negatively affected hydrology, causing mangrove diebacks and coverage loss worldwide. In fact, the assessment of mangrove water budgets, impacted by natural and human disturbances, is limited due to a lack of long-term data and information that hinders our understanding of how changes in hydroperiod and salinity control mangrove productivity and spatial distribution. In this study, we implemented a mass balance-based hydrological model (RHYMAN) that explicitly considers groundwater discharge in the Shark River estuary (SRE, southwestern Everglades) located in a karstic geomorphic setting and influenced by regional hydrological restoration. We used long-term hydroperiod and porewater salinity (PWS) datasets obtained from 2004 to 2016 for model calibration and validation and to determine spatiotemporal variability in water levels and PWS at three riverine mangrove sites (downstream, SRS-6; midstream, SRS-5; upstream, SRS-4) along SRE. Model results agree with a distinct PWS pattern along the estuarine salinity gradient where the highest PWS occurs at SRS-6 (mean: 25, range: 22–30 ppt), followed by SRS-5 (17, 14–25 ppt) and SRS-4 (5, 3–13 ppt). A commensurate increase in PWS over a thirteen-year period indicates a long-term reduction in freshwater inflow coupled with sea-level rise (SLR). Increasing freshwater scenario simulation results show a significant reduction (17–27%) in PWS along the estuary in contrast with a high SLR scenario when salinity increases up to 1.1 to 2.5 times that of control values. Model results show that freshwater inflow and SLR are key drivers controlling mangrove wetlands PWS in this karstic coastal region. Given its relatively simple structure, this mass balance-based hydrological model could be used in other environmental settings to evaluate potential habitat and regime shifts due to changes in hydrology and PWS under regional hydrological restoration management.

Florida↗
USGS2002

Coastal geoindicators of environmental change in the humid tropics

The primary geoindicators appropriate for monitoring environmental changes in the humid tropics are transitory surface water levels, shoreline position, wetlands distribution, coral reefs, landforms, and sediment sequence and composition. Lateral zonations and temporal successions of vegetation also can be used as geoindicators of riverine and shoreline changes. All of these coastal geoindicators are sensitive to regional tectonic processes and anthropogenic alterations and they typically reflect significant changes in coastal conditions such as fluvial processes, coastal energy, water quality, relative sea level, and sediment supply. Where humid tropical coasts coincide with active tectonic margins, indicators of seismic activity are critical to understanding Coastal changes associated with co-seismic subsidence or uplift, tsunamis, and liquefaction of coastal sediments. Coastal landforms and sedimentary deposits that record late Quaternary environmental changes include perched fluvial and marine terraces, delta-plain morphologies, crevassesplay deposits, peats and other paleosols, beach ridges, mud capes, and mud volcanoes. Although these features and deposits typically reflect environmental changes spanning more than 100 years, they are relevant to modern processes, management of coastal lands and resources, and prediction of future conditions. In some regions of the humid tropics, large coastal areas are unaffected by hurricanes or typhoons. Nevertheless, these tropical coasts are vulnerable to other non-storm processes, such as El Nin??o events, tsunamis, and monsoons that increase water levels, and cause widespread flooding and beach erosion. The environmental and political significance of coastal geoindicators increases when they are integrated and applied to issues of human safety and health such as hazards mapping, risk assessment, and dispersion of contaminated sediments. However, to be relevant, those socio-environmental applications demand accurate predictions of future trends and rates of change.

Environmental Geology↗
USGS2021

The extent and variability of storm‐induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long‐term and high‐frequency data

The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind‐induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long‐term and high‐frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind‐ vs. rainstorm‐induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day‐to‐day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day‐to‐day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28°C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 ± 2.7 m s −1 , 1 SD) and by 0.15°C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 ± 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed ≥2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5 th percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium‐depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm‐induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typically <2°C. Day‐to‐day temperature change, in the absence of storms, often exceeded storm‐induced temperature changes. Because storm‐induced temperature changes to lake surface waters were minimal, changes in other limnological variables (e.g., nutrient concentrations or light) from storms may have larger impacts on biological communities than temperature changes.

Limnology and Oceanography↗
USGS2015

Eruptive and environmental processes recorded by diatoms in volcanically-dispersed lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Late Pleistocene diatomaceous sediment was widely dispersed along with volcanic ash (tephra) across and beyond New Zealand by the 25.4 ka Oruanui supereruption from Taupo volcano. We present a detailed analysis of the diatom populations in the Oruanui tephra and the newly discovered floras in two other eruptions from the same volcano: the 28.6 ka Okaia and 1.8 ka Taupo eruptions. For comparison, the diatoms were also examined in Late Pleistocene and Holocene lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). Our study demonstrates how these microfossils provide insights into the lake history of the TVZ since the Last Glacial Maximum. Morphometric analysis of Aulacoseira valve dimensions provides a useful quantitative tool to distinguish environmental and eruptive processes within and between individual tephras. The Oruanui and Okaia diatom species and valve dimensions are highly consistent with a shared volcanic source, paleolake and eruption style (involving large-scale magma-water interaction). They are distinct from lacustrine sediments sourced elsewhere in the TVZ. Correspondence analysis shows that small, intact samples of erupted lake sediment (i.e., lithic clasts in ignimbrite) contain heterogeneous diatom populations, reflecting local variability in species composition of the paleolake and its shallowly-buried sediments. Our analysis also shows a dramatic post-Oruanui supereruption decline in Cyclostephanos novaezelandiae, which likely reflects a combination of (1) reorganisation of the watershed in the aftermath of the eruption, and (2) overall climate warming following the Last Glacial Maximum. This decline is reflected in substantially lower proportions of C. novaezelandiae in the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption deposits, and even fewer in post-1.8 ka sediments from modern (Holocene) Lake Taupo. Our analysis highlights how the excellent preservation of siliceous microfossils in volcanic tephra may fingerprint the volcanic source region and retain a valuable record of volcanically-influenced environmental change.

Taupo Volcanic Zone↗
USGS2022

Anthropogenic stressors compound climate impacts on inland lake dynamics: The case of Hamun Lakes

Inland lakes face unprecedented pressures from climatic and anthropogenic stresses, causing their recession and desiccation globally. Climate change is increasingly blamed for such environmental degradation, but in many regions, direct anthropogenic pressures compound, and sometimes supersede, climatic factors. This study examined a human-environmental system – the terminal Hamun Lakes on the Iran-Afghanistan border – that embodies amplified challenges of inland waters. Satellite and climatic data from 1984 to 2019 were fused, which documented that the Hamun Lakes lost 89% of their surface area between 1999 and 2001 (3809 km 2 versus 410 km 2 ), coincident with a basin-wide, multi-year meteorological drought. The lakes continued to shrink afterwards and desiccated in 2012, despite the above-average precipitation in the upstream basin. Rapid growth in irrigated agricultural lands occurred in upstream Afghanistan in the recent decade, consuming water that otherwise would have fed the Hamun Lakes. Compounding upstream anthropogenic stressors, Iran began storing flood water that would have otherwise drained to the lakes, for urban and agricultural consumption in 2009. Results from a deep Learning model of Hamun Lakes' dynamics indicate that the average lakes' surface area from 2010 to 2019 would have been 2.5 times larger without increasing anthropogenic stresses across the basin. The Hamun Lakes' desiccation had major socio-environmental consequences, including loss of livelihood, out-migration, dust-storms, and loss of important species in the region.

Science of the Total Envionrment↗
USGS2003

Eutrophication and carbon sources in Chesapeake Bay over the last 2700 yr: Human impacts in context

To compare natural variability and trends in a developed estuary with human-influenced patterns, stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) were measured in sediments from five piston cores collected in Chesapeake Bay. Mixing of terrestrial and algal carbon sources primarily controls patterns of δ 13 C org profiles, so this proxy shows changes in estuary productivity and in delivery of terrestrial carbon to the bay. Analyses of δ 15 N show periods when oxygen depletion allowed intense denitrification and nutrient recycling to develop in the seasonally stratified water column, in addition to recycling taking place in surficial sediments. These conditions produced 15 N-enriched (heavy) nitrogen in algal biomass, and ultimately in sediment. A pronounced increasing trend in δ 15 N of +4‰ started in about A.D. 1750 to 1800 at all core sites, indicating greater eutrophication in the bay and summer oxygen depletion since that time. The timing of the change correlates with the advent of widespread land clearing and tillage in the watershed, and associated increases in erosion and sedimentation. Isotope data show that the region has experienced up to 13 wet-dry cycles in the last 2700 yr. Relative sea-level rise and basin infilling have produced a net freshening trend overprinted with cyclic climatic variability. Isotope data also constrain the relative position of the spring productivity maximum in Chesapeake Bay and distinguish local anomalies from sustained changes impacting large regions of the bay. This approach to reconstructing environmental history should be generally applicable to studies of other estuaries and coastal embayments impacted by watershed development.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2017

A record of change - Science and elder observations on the Navajo Nation

A Record of Change - Science and Elder Observations on the Navajo Nation is a 25-minute documentary about combining observations from Navajo elders with conventional science to determine how tribal lands and culture are affected by climate change. On the Navajo Nation, there is a shortage of historical climate data, making it difficult to assess changing environmental conditions. This video reveals how a team of scientists, anthropologists, and translators combined the rich local knowledge of Navajo elders with recent scientific investigation to effectively document environmental change. Increasing aridity and declining snowfall in this poorly monitored region of the Southwest are accompanied by declining river flow and migrating sand dunes. The observations of Navajo elders verify and supplement this record of change by informing how shifting weather patterns are reflected in Navajo cultural practices and living conditions.

Navajo Nation↗
USGS2014

Porphyry copper assessment of East and Southeast Asia: Philippines, Taiwan (Republic of China), Republic of Korea (South Korea), and Japan

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of East and Southeast Asia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The assessment covers the Philippines in Southeast Asia, and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), and Japan in East Asia. The Philippines host world class porphyry copper deposits, such as the Tampakan and Atlas deposits. No porphyry copper deposits have been discovered in the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), or Japan. Thirteen geographic areas were delineated as tracts that are permissive for porphyry copper deposits in the assessed area. Individual tracts range from about 3,000 to 100,000 square kilometers in area. Permissive tracts are delineated on the basis of mapped distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define subduction-related magmatic arcs or magmatic belts that might contain porphyry copper deposits. Most of these magmatic arcs are subduction related, although some porphyry deposits and prospects are present in back-arc or poorly understood tectonic settings. Maps at various scales were used in the compilation; however, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Numbers of undiscovered deposits were estimated at different levels of confidence for 10 permissive tracts in the Philippines including one area that extends to eastern Taiwan (Republic of China); permissive tracts in South Korea and Japan are discussed qualitatively. Estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were combined with grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate amounts of undiscovered resources. Grades and tonnages of known porphyry copper deposits in the study area were compared with global grade and tonnage models to determine the appropriate model for simulation of undiscovered resources. Most of the known deposits are best described as copper-gold subtypes of porphyry copper deposits. For some permissive tracts, a general porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum model was used. Thirty-eight porphyry copper deposits are known in the Philippines; the mean number of undiscovered deposits was estimated to be 28. Mean (arithmetic) resources that could be associated with the undiscovered deposits are 90 million metric tons of copper and 5,800 metric tons of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. Additional resources that could be discovered in extensions to known deposits were not evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, indicate expected amounts of total contained metal and mineralized rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. The Philippines have a long history of porphyry exploration cycles and mine development, interrupted at times by political and social unrest, environmental concerns, and natural disasters. Changes in mining laws within the region and the recent high price of gold on the world market have prompted renewed interest in porphyry copper deposits in the region. South Korea and Japan have been thoroughly explored for many types of mineral deposits. Available data suggest that the permissive rocks in South Korea typically are too deeply eroded to preserve porphyry copper deposits. Porphyry copper systems may be present in Japan, but are likely to lie at depths greater than the 1 kilometer from the surface protocol adopted for this study. Descriptions of the geologic basis for delineating each tract, the data used, the geologic criteria and rationale for the assessment, and results of the assessment are included in appendixes along with the description of a geographic information system (GIS) that includes tract boundaries, known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects, and assessment results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2001

Monitoring and verifying changes of organic carbon in soil

Changes in soil and vegetation management can impact strongly on the rates of carbon (C) accumulation and loss in soil, even over short periods of time. Detecting the effects of such changes in accumulation and loss rates on the amount of C stored in soil presents many challenges. Consideration of the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of soil properties, general environmental conditions, and management history is essential when designing methods for monitoring and projecting changes in soil C stocks. Several approaches and tools will be required to develop reliable estimates of changes in soil C at scales ranging from the individual experimental plot to whole regional and national inventories. In this paper we present an overview of soil properties and processes that must be considered. We classify the methods for determining soil C changes as direct or indirect. Direct methods include field and laboratory measurements of total C, various physical and chemical fractions, and C isotopes. A promising direct method is eddy covariance measurement of CO 2 fluxes. Indirect methods include simple and stratified accounting, use of environmental and topographic relationships, and modeling approaches. We present a conceptual plan for monitoring soil C changes at regional scales that can be readily implemented. Finally, we anticipate significant improvements in soil C monitoring with the advent of instruments capable of direct and precise measurements in the field as well as methods for interpreting and extrapolating spatial and temporal information.

Climatic Change↗