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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Competition favors elk over beaver in a riparian willow ecosystem

Beaver (Castor spp.) conservation requires an understanding of their complex interactions with competing herbivores. Simulation modeling offers a controlled environment to examine long-term dynamics in ecosystems driven by uncontrollable variables. We used a new version of the SAVANNA ecosystem model to investigate beaver (C. canadensis) and elk (Cervus elaphus) competition for willow (Salix spp.). We initialized the model with field data from Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, to simulate a 4-ha riparian ecosystem containing beaver, elk, and willow. We found beaver persisted indefinitely when elk density was <= 20 elk km (2). Beaver persistence decreased exponentially as elk density increased from 30 to 60 elk km(2), which suggests the presence of an ecological threshold. The interaction of beaver and elk herbivory shifted the size distribution of willow plants from tall to short when elk densities were >= 30 elk km (2). The loss of tall willow preceded rapid beaver declines, thus willow condition may predict beaver population trajectory in natural environments. Beaver were able to persist with slightly higher elk densities if beaver alternated their use of foraging sites in a rest-rotation pattern rather than maintained continuous use. Thus, we found asymmetrical competition for willow strongly favored elk over beaver in a simulated montane ecosystem. Finally, we discuss application of the SAVANNA model and mechanisms of competition relative to beaver persistence as metapopulations, ecological resistance and alternative state models, and ecosystem regulation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2023

Alternative lifestyles: A plague persistence hypothesis

Several explanations have been posited for how the plague bacterium ( Yersinia pestis ) reemerges during sylvatic cycles within the same foci over many years, and often without direct evidence of host die-offs. One prevalent view is that transmission-optimized Y. pestis bacteria, exhibiting epizootic/enzootic behavior, almost continually replicate and survive through repeated, linked, host-centered propagation events. These bacteria, we will refer to as “ r-pestis ” type ecotype(s), represent a limited number of phenotypic lineages exhibiting optimal transmissibility and high rates of reproduction. These attributes, it is thought, assure their durability through time. For continuous r-pestis type expansions to be successful, adequate numbers of fleas and hosts must become infected to produce massive numbers of bacteria. In the process, host and flea numbers decline as they succumb to plague. Here we hypothesize that r-pestis population expansions seed the environment and confront a unique, highly competitive local milieu, where natural selection favors new ecotypes that incorporate a range of emergent adaptive survival strategies. These newly adapted survivors we recognize as a range of “ K - pestis ” ecotypes with greater durability and lower reproduction rates. These emergent K - pestis forms may arise in succession or coexist for varying periods of time with r-pestis ecotypes, and with other K - pestis ecotypes. Among K-pestis ecotypes, we hypothesize that through adaptive radiations, some persist within flea life stages, soil, organic waste, amoebae, plants, carcasses, hosts, or within niches yet to be characterized. In some settings, after a long quiet period, when favorable, K-pestis bacteria may trigger a singular event where an r-pestis transmission stream emerges precipitating another enzootic/epizootic progression. If this hypothesis withstands rigorous testing, then Y. pestis might represent an even more formidable, enduring, and adaptable foe, where unforeseen local events could trigger new epidemic and epizootic/enzootic events threatening humans and populations of other mammals, including those of conservation concern.

Ecosphere↗

USGS1992

Modelling population change from time series data

Information on change in population size over time is among the most basic inputs for population management. Unfortunately, population changes are generally difficult to identify, and once identified difficult to explain. Sources of variald (patterns) in population data include: changes in environment that affect carrying capaciyy and produce trend, autocorrelative processes, irregular environmentally induced perturbations, and stochasticity arising from population processes. In addition. populations are almost never censused and many surveys (e.g., the North American Breeding Bird Survey) produce multiple, incomplete time series of population indices, providing further sampling complications. We suggest that each source of pattern should be used to address specific hypotheses regarding population change, but that failure to correctly model each source can lead to false conclusions about the dynamics of populations. We consider hypothesis tests based on each source of pattern, and the effects of autocorrelated observations and sampling error. We identify important constraints on analyses of time series that limit their use in identifying underlying relationships.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations

1. Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. 2. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. 3. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. 4. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. 5. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

The WOAH global wildlife health collaborating centre network (WOAH-WildNet): A coordinated and transformative approach to global wildlife health challenges

Wildlife health is integral to functioning, complex ecosystems [ 1 ], directly and indirectly influencing the health of people, animals, plants, and the environment [ 2 – 4 ]. Healthy wildlife populations are essential for ecosystem services and are at the heart of the One Health approach [ 3 , 4 ], which aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, and ecosystems through multisectoral and transdisciplinary collaboration [ 5 ]. Despite its importance, wildlife health initiatives often operate in silos, limiting capacity to address transboundary threats such as emerging diseases, pollution, and environmental changes. Anthropogenic changes, including habitat loss, degradation, fragmentation, and unsustainable harvesting, exacerbate wildlife health challenges [6–9]. These pressures disrupt species biology and alter host-pathogen dynamics [10–12], underscoring the importance of coordinated collective action in addressing harmful effects on the health of wild animals. While local conservation efforts are vital, long-term success in safeguarding biodiversity requires a unified, global network. For instance, without harmonized surveillance and response systems, individual institutions cannot effectively track pathogens across borders or share diagnostic capabilities. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Collaborating Centre Network for Wildlife Health—WOAH-WildNet—was established to bridge these gaps. By fostering global collaboration, sharing resources, and enabling data exchange, WOAH-WildNet provides a transformative, systems-based approach to wildlife health, managing risks, and enhancing ecosystem resilience. Central to this mission is breaking down silos to promote intersectoral coordinated responses to complex wildlife health challenges.

PLOS Sustainability and Transformation↗

USGS2016

Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history, environmental variability contributed more to variation in species abundances than did density. Our findings underscore the need for more studies on populations of the same species in different environments to verify the generality of current explanations about population dynamics and its association with species life history.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2014

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Population and Environment↗

USGS2007

Airborne desert dust and aeromicrobiology over the Turkish Mediterranean coastline

Between 18 March and 27 October 2002, 220 air samples were collected on 209 of 224 calendar days, on top of a coastal atmospheric research tower in Erdemli, Turkey. The volume of air filtered for each sample was 340 liters. Two hundred fifty-seven bacterial and 2598 fungal colony forming units (CFU) were enumerated from the samples using a low-nutrient agar. Ground-based dust measurements demonstrated that the region is routinely impacted by dust generated regionally and from North Africa and that the highest combined percent recovery of total CFU and African dust deposition occurred in the month of April (93.4% of CFU recovery and 91.1% of dust deposition occurred during African dust days versus no African dust present, for that month). A statistically significant correlation was observed (peak regional African dust months of March, April and May; r s =0.576, P=0.000) between an increase in the prevalence of microorganisms recovered from atmospheric samples on dust days (regional and African as determined by ground-based dust measurements), versus that observed on non-dust days. Given the prevalence of atmospherically suspended desert dust and microorganisms observed in this study, and that culture-based studies typically only recover a small fraction (<1.0%) of the actual microbial population in any given environment, dust-borne microorganisms and other associated constituents (organic detritus, toxins, etc.) may play a significant role in the regional human and ecosystem health.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2021

Informed breeding dispersal following stochastic changes to patch quality in a pond-breeding amphibian

The unidirectional movement of animals between breeding patches (i.e. breeding dispersal) has profound implications for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations. In spatiotemporally variable environments, individuals are expected to adjust their dispersal decisions according to information gathered on the environmental and/or social cues that reflect the fitness prospects in a given breeding patch (i.e. informed dispersal). A paucity of empirical work limited our understanding of the ability of animals to depart from low-quality breeding patches and settle in high-quality breeding patches. We examined the capacity of individuals to respond to stochastic changes in habitat quality via informed breeding dispersal in a pond-breeding amphibian. We conducted a 5-year (2015–2019) capture–recapture study of boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas boreas ( n = 1,100) that breed in beaver ponds in western Wyoming, USA. During early spring of 2017, an extreme flooding event destroyed several beaver dams and resulted in the loss of breeding habitat. We used multi-state models to investigate how temporal changes in pond characteristics influenced breeding dispersal, and determine whether movement decisions were in accordance with prospects for reproductive fitness. Boreal toads more often departed from low-quality breeding ponds (without successful metamorphosis) and settled in high-quality breeding ponds (with successful metamorphosis). Movement decisions were context-dependent and associated with pond characteristics altered by beaver dam destruction. Individuals were more likely to depart from shallow ponds with high vegetation cover and settle in deep ponds with low vegetation cover. The probability of metamorphosis was related to the same environmental cues, suggesting that boreal toads assess the fitness prospects of a breeding patch and adjust movement decisions accordingly (i.e. informed breeding dispersal). We demonstrated that stochastic variability in environmental conditions and habitat quality can underpin dispersal behaviour in amphibians. Our study highlighted the mechanistic linkages between habitat change, movement behaviour and prospects for reproductive performance, which is critical for understanding how wild animals respond to rapid environmental change.

Wyoming↗

USGS1972

Lake Erie: Effects of exploitation, environmental changes and new species on the fishery resources

In no other lake as large as Lake Erie (surface area, 25,690 km 2 ) have such extensive changes taken place in the drainage basin, the lake environment, and the fish populations over the last 100 years. Deforestation and prairie burning led to erosion and siltation of valuable spawning grounds. Marsh spawning areas were drained. Lake-to-river spawning migrations were blocked by mill dams. Accelerated cultural nutrient loading increased total dissolved solids by nearly 50% (1920-70). Average summer water temperatures increased 1.1 C. Phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance increased severalfold. Severe oxygen depletion developed in the bottom waters of all three basins of the lake. Lake sturgeon were fished out as nuisance fish in the late 1800s. The commercial fisheries for lake trout, lake whitefish, and lake herring collapsed by 1940 and those for blue pike and walleye by 1960. Yellow perch production became unstable in the 1960s. The effects of exploitation, environmental changes, and new species on these fish populations are discussed.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2013

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Alabama;Florida;Louisiana;Mississippi;Texas↗

USGS2010

Structural equation modeling for observational studies

Structural equation modeling (SEM) represents a framework for developing and evaluating complex hypotheses about systems. This method of data analysis differs from conventional univariate and multivariate approaches familiar to most biologists in several ways. First, SEMs are multiequational and capable of representing a wide array of complex hypotheses about how system components interrelate. Second, models are typically developed based on theoretical knowledge and designed to represent competing hypotheses about the processes responsible for data structure. Third, SEM is conceptually based on the analysis of covariance relations. Most commonly, solutions are obtained using maximum-likelihood solution procedures, although a variety of solution procedures are used, including Bayesian estimation. Numerous extensions give SEM a very high degree of flexibility in dealing with nonnormal data, categorical responses, latent variables, hierarchical structure, multigroup comparisons, nonlinearities, and other complicating factors. Structural equation modeling allows researchers to address a variety of questions about systems, such as how different processes work in concert, how the influences of perturbations cascade through systems, and about the relative importance of different influences. I present 2 example applications of SEM, one involving interactions among lynx (Lynx pardinus), mongooses (Herpestes ichneumon), and rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), and the second involving anuran species richness. Many wildlife ecologists may find SEM useful for understanding how populations function within their environments. Along with the capability of the methodology comes a need for care in the proper application of SEM.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Integration of vegetation community spatial data into a prescribed fire planning process at Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (USA)

Many eastern forest communities depend on fire for regeneration or are enhanced by fire as a restoration practice. However, the use of prescribed fire in the mesic forested environments and the densely populated regions of the eastern United States has been limited. The objective of our research was to develop a science-based approach to prioritizing the use of prescribed fire in appropriate forest types in the eastern United States based on a set of desired management outcomes. Through a process of expert elicitation and data analysis, we assessed and integrated recent vegetation community mapping results along with other available spatial data layers into a spatial prioritization tool for prescribed fire planning at Shenandoah National Park (Virginia, USA). The integration of vegetation spatial data allowed for development of per-pixel priority rankings and exclusion areas enabling precise targeting of fire management activities on the ground, as well as a park-wide ranking of fire planning compartments. We demonstrate the use and evaluation of this approach through implementation and monitoring of a prescribed burn and show that progress is being made toward desired conditions. Integration of spatial data into the fire planning process has served as a collaborative tool for the implementation of prescribed fire projects, which assures projects will be planned in the most appropriate areas to meet objectives that are supported by current science.

Virginia↗

USGS2026

Exploratory ecology of reintroduced elk in Virginia

Reintroductions of extirpated species are an important tool in wildlife conservation. Understanding how reintroduced populations acclimatize to novel environments can lend insight into social learning that in turn is valuable for assessing reintroduction success and maximizing efficacy of subsequent efforts. During 2012, 2013, and 2014, the Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources implemented soft releases of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) translocated to southwestern Virginia from eastern Kentucky. We investigated home range establishment and post-release movements of these reintroduced elk ( n = 60). We found adults moved farther from the release site than either yearlings or calves (F = 6.93, p = 0.001). Elk released in 2012 and 2013 took similar amounts of time to establish home ranges (median 181 days, range 108–214 days; and median 189 days, range 147–209 days, respectively), but individuals released in 2013 remained closer to the release site ( 𝑥 ̲ = 605.5 m, SD = 335.7 m, closer) presumably by joining established social groups. However, the 2014 cohort generally took longer to establish home ranges (median: 231 days; range: 56–258 days) and moved farthest from the release site ( 𝑥 ̲ = 1360.2 m, SD = 293.9 m, farther than 2012 individuals) possibly due to the larger cohort size and resulting intraspecific competition, or the earlier release date that year. Our findings suggest the number of consecutively released cohorts, the timing of the release, and the composition of age classes for released individuals are important considerations for reintroductions.

Virginia↗

USGS2020

Asymptotic population abundance of a two-patch system with asymmetric diffusion

This paper considers a two-patch system with asymmetric diffusion rates, in which exploitable resources are included. By using dynamical system theory, we exclude periodic solution in the one-patch subsystem and demonstrate its global dynamics. Then we exhibit uniform persistence of the two-patch system and demonstrate uniqueness of the positive equilibrium, which is shown to be asymptotically stable when the diffusion rates are sufficiently large. By a thorough analysis on the asymptotic population abundance, we demonstrate necessary and sufficient conditions under which the asymmetric diffusion rates can lead to the result that total equilibrium population abundance in heterogeneous environments is larger than that in heterogeneous/homogeneous environments with no diffusion, which is not intuitive. Our result extends previous work to the situation of asymmetric diffusion and provides new insights. Numerical simulations confirm and extend our results.

Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems-A↗

USGS1973

Effects of exploitation, environmental changes, and new species on the fish habitats and resources of Lake Erie

No other lake as large as Lake Erie (surface area, 25,690 km 2 ) has been subjected to such extensive changes in the drainage basin, the lake environment, and the fish populations over the last 150 years. Deforestation and prairie burning led to erosion of the watershed and siltation of valuable spawning grounds. Marsh spawning areas were drained. Lake-to-river spawning migrations of sturgeon, walleye, and other fishes were blocked by mill dams. Accelerated cultural nutrient loading increased total dissolved solids by nearly 50% (1920-70). Phosphate loading reached 469 metric tons per year by the 1950's and continued to increase. The biomass of phytoplankton increased 20-fold between 1919 and 1963. Oxygen demand for decomposition of these algae so degraded oxygen regimes in the western and central basins by the 1950's that the once abundant mayfly nymphs were destroyed and the central basin hypolimnion became anoxic. The sequence of disappearance or severe depletion of fish species was as follows: lake trout, sturgeon, lake herring, lake whitefish, sauger, blue pike, and walleye. Yellow perch are now declining. All resources were intensively exploited at one time or another. Lake trout suffered only this stress, but changes in the watershed significantly stressed sturgeon and lake whitefish. Degradation of the lake spawning grounds, benthos, and oxygen regimes culminated in severe stress by the 1950's on the remnants of the lake herring and lake whitefish, and on the sauger, blue pike, and walleye. Additional mortality may have been imposed on walleye and blue pike fry by predacious smelt that successfully colonized Lake Erie after first appearing in 1932. The cultural stresses, in the probable order of greatest to least net effects on the fish community of Lake Erie, appear to have been: (1) an intense, opportunistic, ineffectively controlled commercial fishery; (2) changes in the watershed, such as erosion and siltation of stream beds and inshore lake areas, and construction of dams in tributaries; (3) nutrient loading, destruction of biota, and reduction of dissolved oxygen; and (4) the competitive and predatory activities of invading species.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2015

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Colorado↗

USGS2004

Early environment and recruitment of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) into the breeding population

In geese, growth regulates survival in the first year. We examined whether early growth, which is primarily governed by environmental conditions, also affects the probability that individuals that survive their first year enter the breeding population. We used logistic regression on a sample of Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) that were weighed at a known age in their first summer and observed during winter (indicating that they had survived the principal mortality period in their first year) to study whether early growth influenced the probability that those individuals would be recruited into the breeding population. We also examined the effects of cohort (1986-1996), sex, age when measured, and area where individuals were reared. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion score contained body mass, age (days) at measurement, cohort, sex, and brood-rearing area. Models that included variable mass had 85% of the cumulative model weight of the models we considered, indicating that gosling mass had a substantial effect on probability of them entering the breeding population. Females were more likely to be detected breeding than males, which is consistent with the differential fidelity of the sexes. Of individuals that survived the first year, larger goslings were more likely to become breeders. More recent cohorts were less likely to have been detected as breeders. Our findings indicate that environment during the growth period affects the ability of individuals to enter the breeding population, even after accounting for the effects of growth on survival.

Alaska↗