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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Emulating natural disturbances for declining late-successional species: A case study of the consequences for Cerulean Warblers ( Setophaga cerulea )

Forest cover in the eastern United States has increased over the past century and while some late-successional species have benefited from this process as expected, others have experienced population declines. These declines may be in part related to contemporary reductions in small-scale forest interior disturbances such as fire, windthrow, and treefalls. To mitigate the negative impacts of disturbance alteration and suppression on some late-successional species, strategies that emulate natural disturbance regimes are often advocated, but large-scale evaluations of these practices are rare. Here, we assessed the consequences of experimental disturbance (using partial timber harvest) on a severely declining late-successional species, the cerulean warbler ( Setophaga cerulea ), across the core of its breeding range in the Appalachian Mountains. We measured numerical (density), physiological (body condition), and demographic (age structure and reproduction) responses to three levels of disturbance and explored the potential impacts of disturbance on source-sink dynamics. Breeding densities of warblers increased one to four years after all canopy disturbances (vs. controls) and males occupying territories on treatment plots were in better condition than those on control plots. However, these beneficial effects of disturbance did not correspond to improvements in reproduction; nest success was lower on all treatment plots than on control plots in the southern region and marginally lower on light disturbance plots in the northern region. Our data suggest that only habitats in the southern region acted as sources, and interior disturbances in this region have the potential to create ecological traps at a local scale, but sources when viewed at broader scales. Thus, cerulean warblers would likely benefit from management that strikes a landscape-level balance between emulating natural disturbances in order to attract individuals into areas where current structure is inappropriate, and limiting anthropogenic disturbance in forests that already possess appropriate structural attributes in order to maintain maximum productivity.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2011

Cold-water coral distributions in the Drake Passage area from towed camera observations - Initial interpretations

Seamounts are unique deep-sea features that create habitats thought to have high levels of endemic fauna, productive fisheries and benthic communities vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts. Many seamounts are isolated features, occurring in the high seas, where access is limited and thus biological data scarce. There are numerous seamounts within the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean), yet high winds, frequent storms and strong currents make seafloor sampling particularly difficult. As a result, few attempts to collect biological data have been made, leading to a paucity of information on benthic habitats or fauna in this area, particularly those on primarily hard-bottom seamounts and ridges. During a research cruise in 2008 six locations were examined (two on the Antarctic margin, one on the Shackleton Fracture Zone, and three on seamounts within the Drake Passage), using a towed camera with onboard instruments to measure conductivity, temperature, depth and turbidity. Dominant fauna and bottom type were categorized from 200 randomized photos from each location. Cold-water corals were present in high numbers in habitats both on the Antarctic margin and on the current swept seamounts of the Drake Passage, though the diversity of orders varied. Though the Scleractinia (hard corals) were abundant on the sedimented margin, they were poorly represented in the primarily hard-bottom areas of the central Drake Passage. The two seamount sites and the Shackleton Fracture Zone showed high numbers of stylasterid (lace) and alcyonacean (soft) corals, as well as large numbers of sponges. Though data are preliminary, the geological and environmental variability (particularly in temperature) between sample sites may be influencing cold-water coral biogeography in this region. Each area observed also showed little similarity in faunal diversity with other sites examined for this study within all phyla counted. This manuscript highlights how little is understood of these isolated features, particularly in Polar regions.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2014

A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment

Ecosystem Services (ES) are an established conceptual framework for attributing value to the benefits that nature provides to humans. As the promise of robust ES-driven management is put to the test, shortcomings in our ability to accurately measure, map, and value ES have surfaced. On the research side, mainstream methods for ES assessment still fall short of addressing the complex, multi-scale biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics inherent in ES provision, flow, and use. On the practitioner side, application of methods remains onerous due to data and model parameterization requirements. Further, it is increasingly clear that the dominant “one model fits all” paradigm is often ill-suited to address the diversity of real-world management situations that exist across the broad spectrum of coupled human-natural systems. This article introduces an integrated ES modeling methodology, named ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services), which aims to introduce improvements on these fronts. To improve conceptual detail and representation of ES dynamics, it adopts a uniform conceptualization of ES that gives equal emphasis to their production, flow and use by society, while keeping model complexity low enough to enable rapid and inexpensive assessment in many contexts and for multiple services. To improve fit to diverse application contexts, the methodology is assisted by model integration technologies that allow assembly of customized models from a growing model base. By using computer learning and reasoning, model structure may be specialized for each application context without requiring costly expertise. In this article we discuss the founding principles of ARIES - both its innovative aspects for ES science and as an example of a new strategy to support more accurate decision making in diverse application contexts.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Different populations of blacklegged tick nymphs exhibit differences in questing behavior that have implications for human lyme disease risk

Animal behavior can have profound effects on pathogen transmission and disease incidence. We studied the questing (= host-seeking) behavior of blacklegged tick ( Ixodes scapularis ) nymphs, which are the primary vectors of Lyme disease in the eastern United States. Lyme disease is common in northern but not in southern regions, and prior ecological studies have found that standard methods used to collect host-seeking nymphs in northern regions are unsuccessful in the south. This led us to hypothesize that there are behavior differences between northern and southern nymphs that alter how readily they are collected, and how likely they are to transmit the etiological agent of Lyme disease to humans. To examine this question, we compared the questing behavior of I. scapularis nymphs originating from one northern (Lyme disease endemic) and two southern (non-endemic) US regions at field sites in Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Florida. Laboratory-raised uninfected nymphs were monitored in circular 0.2 m 2 arenas containing wooden dowels (mimicking stems of understory vegetation) for 10 (2011) and 19 (2012) weeks. The probability of observing nymphs questing on these stems (2011), and on stems, on top of leaf litter, and on arena walls (2012) was much greater for northern than for southern origin ticks in both years and at all field sites (19.5 times greater in 2011; 3.6-11.6 times greater in 2012). Our findings suggest that southern origin I. scapularis nymphs rarely emerge from the leaf litter, and consequently are unlikely to contact passing humans. We propose that this difference in questing behavior accounts for observed geographic differences in the efficacy of the standard sampling techniques used to collect questing nymphs. These findings also support our hypothesis that very low Lyme disease incidence in southern states is, in part, a consequence of the type of host-seeking behavior exhibited by southern populations of the key Lyme disease vector.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Effects of food availability on yolk androgen deposition in the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), a seabird with facultative brood reduction

In birds with facultative brood reduction, survival of the junior chick is thought to be regulated primarily by food availability. In black-legged kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) where parents and chicks are provided with unlimited access to supplemental food during the breeding season, brood reduction still occurs and varies interannually. Survival of the junior chick is therefore affected by factors in addition to the amount of food directly available to them. Maternally deposited yolk androgens affect competitive dynamics within a brood, and may be one of the mechanisms by which mothers mediate brood reduction in response to a suite of environmental and physiological cues. The goal of this study was to determine whether food supplementation during the pre-lay period affected patterns of yolk androgen deposition in free-living kittiwakes in two years (2003 and 2004) that varied in natural food availability. Chick survival was measured concurrently in other nests where eggs were not collected. In both years, supplemental feeding increased female investment in eggs by increasing egg mass. First-laid (“A”) eggs were heavier but contained less testosterone and androstenedione than second-laid (“B”) eggs across years and treatments. Yolk testosterone was higher in 2003 (the year with higher B chick survival) across treatments. The difference in yolk testosterone levels between eggs within a clutch varied among years and treatments such that it was relatively small when B chick experienced the lowest and the highest survival probabilities, and increased with intermediate B chick survival probabilities. The magnitude of testosterone asymmetry in a clutch may allow females to optimize fitness by either predisposing a brood for reduction or facilitating survival of younger chicks.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

The relationship between body condition, body composition, and growth in amphibians

Body condition of animals is often assumed to reflect advantages in survival or reproduction, but body condition indices may not reflect body composition, or condition may be unrelated to fitness-associated traits. The relationship between body condition indices and composition has rarely been quantified in amphibians, and body condition has not previously been related to growth in adult amphibians. We used laboratory (quantitative magnetic resonance) and field methods to evaluate the relationship between body composition and the four common body condition indices for wildlife studies (body mass index, Fulton’s index, scaled mass index, and residual index) in two frog and one salamander species in Montana, USA. We then assessed the relationship between body condition and summertime somatic growth during a 3-yr mark-recapture study of one of our study species (Columbia spotted frogs, Rana luteiventris ). Correlation of body condition indices with fat and lean mass differed across species, sexes, and whether components were represented as percentages or were scaled based on size. Scaled mass index, residual index, and Fulton’s index were most often well correlated ( r > 0.6) with scaled body components, but Fulton’s index was strongly correlated with body length. Scaled mass and residual indices predicted scaled fat relatively well and were uncorrelated with body length. Heavier condition predicted higher growth rates of Columbia spotted frogs, regardless of the index used. Frogs of heavy body condition (90 th percentile residual index) grew 0.04 and 0.05 mm/day greater than frogs of light condition (10 th percentile) for average length males and females, respectively. Frogs of short body length (10 th percentile) grew 0.11 and 0.19 mm/day more than long (90 th percentile) males and females, respectively. By examining the relationship between body condition indices and body composition and revealing a link between condition and future growth, our results provide an empirical basis for choosing the most appropriate condition index, as well as a potential link to fitness-related traits.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Composition, shell strength, and metabolizable energy of Mulinia lateralis and Ischadium recurvum as food for wintering surf scoters (Melanitta perspicillata)

Decline in surf scoter (Melanitta perspicillata) waterfowl populations wintering in the Chesapeake Bay has been associated with changes in the availability of benthic bivalves. The Bay has become more eutrophic, causing changes in the benthos available to surf scoters. The subsequent decline in oyster beds (Crassostrea virginica) has reduced the hard substrate needed by the hooked mussel (Ischadium recurvum), one of the primary prey items for surf scoters, causing the surf scoter to switch to a more opportune species, the dwarf surfclam (Mulinia lateralis). The composition (macronutrients, minerals, and amino acids), shell strength (N), and metabolizable energy (kJ) of these prey items were quantified to determine the relative foraging values for wintering scoters. Pooled samples of each prey item were analyzed to determine composition. Shell strength (N) was measured using a shell crack compression test. Total collection digestibility trials were conducted on eight captive surf scoters. For the prey size range commonly consumed by surf scoters (6-12 mm for M. lateralis and 18-24 mm for I. recurvum), I. recurvum contained higher ash, protein, lipid, and energy per individual organism than M. lateralis. I. recurvum required significantly greater force to crack the shell relative to M. lateralis. No difference in metabolized energy was observed for these prey items in wintering surf scoters, despite I. recurvum's higher ash content and harder shell than M. lateralis. Therefore, wintering surf scoters were able to obtain the same amount of energy from each prey item, implying that they can sustain themselves if forced to switch prey.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2018

Habitat overlap between Asiatic black bear Ursus thibetanus and red panda Ailurus fulgens in Himalaya

Studying habitat overlap between sympatric species is one of the best ways to identify interspecies relationships and to direct conservation efforts so that multiple species can benefit. However, studies exploring interspecies relationships are very limited in Nepal, making it difficult for the government of Nepal and conservation partners to manage wildlife in their habitats, especially in Himalayan protected areas. In this study, we identified habitat overlap between Asiatic black bear ( Ursus thibetanus ) and red panda ( Ailurus fulgens ) as well as important habitat types for both species in the Makalu Barun National Park, Nepal using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. GPS points of species occurrence were collected from the field, and environmental variables were extracted from freely available sources. We found that the study area contained 647 km 2 of Asiatic black bear habitat and 443 km 2 of the red panda habitat. 368 km 2 supported both species, which constituted 57% of the Asiatic black bear habitat and 83% of the red panda habitat. We found that conifer forest was the most important habitat type for both species. Because the largest portions of both species’ habitat were located inside the buffer zone, a peripheral zone of national park, conservation efforts for these sympatric species should be focused inside the buffer zone to be most effective.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2017

Quantile regression of microgeographic variation in population characteristics of an invasive vertebrate predator

Localized ecological conditions have the potential to induce variation in population characteristics such as size distributions and body conditions. The ability to generalize the influence of ecological characteristics on such population traits may be particularly meaningful when those traits influence prospects for successful management interventions. To characterize variability in invasive Brown Treesnake population attributes within and among habitat types, we conducted systematic and seasonally-balanced surveys, collecting 100 snakes from each of 18 sites: three replicates within each of six major habitat types comprising 95% of Guam’s geographic expanse. Our study constitutes one of the most comprehensive and controlled samplings of any published snake study. Quantile regression on snake size and body condition indicated significant ecological heterogeneity, with a general trend of relative consistency of size classes and body conditions within and among scrub and Leucaena forest habitat types and more heterogeneity among ravine forest, savanna, and urban residential sites. Larger and more robust snakes were found within some savanna and urban habitat replicates, likely due to relative availability of larger prey. Compared to more homogeneous samples in the wet season, variability in size distributions and body conditions was greater during the dry season. Although there is evidence of habitat influencing Brown Treesnake populations at localized scales (e.g., the higher prevalence of larger snakes—particularly males—in savanna and urban sites), the level of variability among sites within habitat types indicates little ability to make meaningful predictions about these traits at unsampled locations. Seasonal variability within sites and habitats indicates that localized population characterization should include sampling in both wet and dry seasons. Extreme values at single replicates occasionally influenced overall habitat patterns, while pooling replicates masked variability among sites. A full understanding of population characteristics should include an assessment of variability both at the site and habitat level.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2023

Diet composition and resource overlap of sympatric native and introduced salmonids across neighboring streams during a peak discharge event

Species assemblages composed of non-native and native fishes are found in freshwater systems throughout the world, and interactions such as interspecific competition that may negatively affect native species are expected when non-native species are present. In the Smith River watershed, Montana, rainbow trout were introduced by 1930. Native mountain whitefish and non-native rainbow trout have presumably occurred in sympatry since the introduction of rainbow trout; however, knowledge about how these two species compete with one another for food resources is sparse. We quantified diet compositions of rainbow trout and mountain whitefish in the mainstem Smith River and in a tributary to the Smith River—Sheep Creek—to determine the degree of overlap in the diets of mountain whitefish and rainbow trout in the Smith River and between the mainstem Smith River and a tributary stream. Rainbow trout and mountain whitefish had generalist feeding strategies, which probably contribute to the amicable coexistence of these species. Diet overlap between rainbow trout and mountain whitefish was high (Pianka’s index value = 0.85) in the Smith River and moderate in Sheep Creek (Pianka’s index value = 0.57). Despite overlap in diets, some resource partitioning may alleviate resource competition (e.g., rainbow trout consumed far more Oligochaeta than mountain whitefish but fewer Brachycentridae and Chironomidae). Diet composition of rainbow trout and mountain whitefish did not differ greatly between the Smith River and Sheep Creek. Prey categories most commonly used by mountain whitefish at the population and individual levels (i.e., Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera) are sensitive taxa and many species within these orders have experienced extinctions and population declines. Therefore, future changes in resource availability or competition could be of concern.

Montana↗
USGS2024

A multi-objective approach for timber harvest scheduling to include management of at-risk species and spatial configuration objectives

Sustainable forestry typically involves integration of several economic and ecological objectives which, at times, may not be compatible with one another. Multi-objective prioritization via harvest scheduling programs can be used to elucidate these relationships and explore solutions. One such program is a spatially explicit harvest scheduler that adopts the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to iteratively find management solutions to achieve multiple objectives (Habplan). Although this program has been used to address forest management scheduling and simulation-based tasks, its utility is constrained by time-intensive data preparation and challenges with incorporating spatial configuration objectives. To address these shortcomings, we introduce an open-source software package, HabplanR, streamlines data preparation, sets parameters, visualizes results, and assesses spatial components of ecological objectives. We developed four example objectives to incorporate into a multi-objective management problem: habitat quality indices for three species “types” (open, closed, and intermediate-canopy-associated species), and harvested pine pulpwood (revenue). We demonstrate the utility of this package to find management schedules that can accommodate potentially conflicting habitat needs of species, while achieving economic targets. We produced 100 software runs and prioritized individual objectives to select four management schedules for further comparisons. We compared outcome differences of the four schedules, including a spatial comparison of two high performing schedules. The software package makes costs and benefits of different schedules explicit and allows for consideration of the spatial configuration of management outcomes in decision-making.

southeastern United States↗
USGS2022

The role of hydraulic and geomorphic complexity in predicting invasive carp spawning potential: St. Croix River, Minnesota and Wisconsin, United States

Since they were first introduced to the United States more than 50 years ago, invasive carp have rapidly colonized rivers of the Mississippi River Basin, with detrimental effects on native aquatic species. Their continued range expansion, and potential for subsequent invasion of the Great Lakes, has led to increased concern for the susceptibility of as-yet uncompromised lotic and lentic systems in the central United States. Because invasive carp eggs and larvae must drift in the river current for the first several days following spawning, numerical drift modeling has emerged as a useful technique for determining whether certain river systems and reaches have the potential to support suspension-to-hatching survival of invasive carp eggs, a critical first step in recruitment. Here we use one such numerical modeling approach, the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg), to estimate bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ) egg hatching success and larval retention in a 47.8-kilometer (km) reach of the multi-thread St. Croix River, Minnesota and Wisconsin, United States. We explore three approaches for obtaining the hydraulic data required by FluEgg, parameterizing the model with either (a) field hydraulic data collected within the main channel during a high-flow event, or hydraulic data output from a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model with both (b) steady, and (c) unsteady flows. We find that the three approaches, along with the range of water temperatures and discharge used in simulations, produce vastly different predictions of streamwise transport and in-river egg hatching probability (0% for field data, 0 to 96% for steady-state hydraulic modeling, and 1.8 to 65% for unsteady modeling). However, all FluEgg simulations, regardless of the source of hydraulic data, predicted that no larvae reach the gas bladder inflation stage within the study reach where nursery habitat is abundant. Overall, these results indicate that the lower St. Croix River is suitable for invasive carp spawning and egg suspension until hatching for a range of discharge and water temperatures. These results highlight the role of complex channel hydraulics and morphology, particularly multi-thread reaches, and their inclusion in ecohydraulic-suitability modeling to determine susceptibility of river systems for invasive carp reproduction. Our work also emphasizes the scientific value of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic models that can capture the spatial heterogeneity of flow fields in geomorphically complex rivers. This work may help to guide management efforts based on the targeted monitoring and control and improve invasive carp egg and larvae sampling efficiency.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Leveraging detection uncertainty to estimate Renibacterium salmoninarum infection status among multiple tissues and assays

Effective disease surveillance relies on accurate pathogen testing and robust prevalence estimates. Diagnostic specificity (DSp), the probability that an uninfected animal tests negative, is high when false positives are low. Diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) is the probability an infected animal tests positive; higher DSe means fewer false negatives. However, sensitivity and false negatives are harder to estimate without a "gold standard", an assay that can detect between 90 - 100% of true positive infections. Occupancy estimation of infection prevalence offers one solution by allowing for imperfect detection of the pathogen. Testing potentially infected tissues multiple times allows for the use of a Bayesian multistate occupancy model to estimate the probability of pathogen infection in tissues [Formula: see text] and detection probabilities [Formula: see text] for different assays. Using [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] from the posterior distribution, the conditional probability of detecting the pathogen can be modeled, allowing for the calculation of DSe. Renibacterium salmoninarum is a bacterial pathogen causing bacterial kidney disease among salmonid species and was the model pathogen we used to train our model. The current testing standard for salmonids combines initial screening for antibodies using direct fluorescent antibody test (DFAT) with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmation to detect R. salmoninarum. However, detection of R. salmoninarum still varies between species, tissues, and assays. Here, a multi-state occupancy model was used to estimate detection probability among individual and dual kidney/liver infections with DFAT and qPCR in fish with an unknown infection status. Both assays produced false negatives, but qPCR had fewer than DFAT and a higher DSe. Infection state was often misclassified, but multiple surveys per individual or combining tissues for testing improved DSe for both assays.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2019

Estimating the degree to which distance and temperature differences drive changes in fish community composition over time in the upper Mississippi River

Similarity in community composition declines as distance between locations increases, a phenomenon that has been observed in a wide variety of freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems. One driver of the distance-similarity relationship is the presence of environmental gradients that alter the suitability of sites for particular species. Although some environmental gradients, such as geology, do not change on a year-to-year basis, others, such as temperature, vary annually and over longer time periods. Here, we used a 21-year dataset of fish communities in the upper Mississippi River to identify the effect of distance on variation in community composition and to assess whether the effect of distance is primarily due to its effect on thermal regime. Because the Mississippi River is aligned mostly north-to-south, larger distances along the river roughly correspond to larger differences in latitude and therefore temperature. As expected, there was a moderate distance-similarity relationship, suggesting greater distance leads to less similarity. The effect of distance appeared to increase slightly over time. Using a subset of data for which air temperature was available, we found that difference among sites in degree days (a surrogate for thermal regime) was more strongly associated with similarity in community composition than physical distance (river km). Although physical distance presumably incorporates more environmental gradients than just temperature (and other potential mechanisms), temperature alone appears to be more strongly associated with differences in the Mississippi River fish community.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2014

An integrated approach to the Taxonomic identification of prehistoric shell ornaments

Shell beads appear to have been one of the earliest examples of personal adornments. Marine shells identified far from the shore evidence long-distance transport and imply networks of exchange and negotiation. However, worked beads lose taxonomic clues to identification, and this may be compounded by taphonomic alteration. Consequently, the significance of this key early artefact may be underestimated. We report the use of bulk amino acid composition of the stable intra-crystalline proteins preserved in shell biominerals and the application of pattern recognition methods to a large dataset (777 samples) to demonstrate that taxonomic identification can be achieved at genus level. Amino acid analyses are fast (<2 hours per sample) and micro-destructive (sample size <2 mg). Their integration with non-destructive techniques provides a valuable and affordable tool, which can be used by archaeologists and museum curators to gain insight into early exploitation of natural resources by humans. Here we combine amino acid analyses, macro- and microstructural observations (by light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy) and Raman spectroscopy to try to identify the raw material used for beads discovered at the Early Bronze Age site of Great Cornard (UK). Our results show that at least two shell taxa were used and we hypothesise that these were sourced locally.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2017

Disturbance of a rare seabird by ship-based tourism in a marine protected area

Managers of marine protected areas (MPAs) must often seek ways to allow for visitation while minimizing impacts to the resources they are intended to protect. Using shipboard observers, we quantified the “zone of disturbance” for Kittlitz’s and marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus brevirostris and B . marmoratus ) exposed to large cruise ships traveling through Glacier Bay National Park, one of the largest MPAs in North America. In the upper reaches of Glacier Bay, where Kittlitz’s murrelets predominated, binary logistic regression models predicted that 61% of all murrelets within 850 m perpendicular distance of a cruise ship were disturbed (defined as flushing or diving), whereas in the lower reaches, where marbled murrelets predominated, this percentage increased to 72%. Using survival analysis, murrelets in both reaches were found to react at greater distances when ships approached indirectly, presumably because of the ship’s larger profile, suggesting murrelets responded to visual rather than audio cues. No management-relevant covariates (e.g., ship velocity, route distance from shore) were found to be important predictors of disturbance, as distance from ship to murrelet accounted for > 90% of the explained variation in murrelet response. Utilizing previously published murrelet density estimates from Glacier Bay, and applying an average empirical disturbance probability (68%) out to 850 m from a cruise ship’s typical route, we estimated that a minimum of 9.8–19.6% of all murrelets in Glacier Bay are disturbed per ship entry. Whether these disturbance levels are inconsistent with Park management objectives, which include conserving wildlife as well as providing opportunities for visitation, depends in large part on whether disturbance events caused by cruise ships have impacts on murrelet fitness, which remains uncertain.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Stream vulnerability to widespread and emergent stressors: a focus on unconventional oil and gas

Multiple stressors threaten stream physical and biological quality, including elevated nutrients and other contaminants, riparian and in-stream habitat degradation and altered natural flow regime. Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is one emerging stressor that spans the U.S. UOG development could alter stream sedimentation, riparian extent and composition, in-stream flow, and water quality. We developed indices to describe the watershed sensitivity and exposure to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and computed a vulnerability index from these two scores across stream catchments in six productive shale plays. We predicted that catchment vulnerability scores would vary across plays due to climatic, geologic and anthropogenic differences. Across-shale averages supported this prediction revealing differences in catchment sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability scores that resulted from different natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For example, semi-arid Western shale play catchments (Mowry, Hilliard, and Bakken) tended to be more sensitive to stressors due to low annual average precipitation and extensive grassland. Catchments in the Barnett and Marcellus-Utica were naturally sensitive from more erosive soils and steeper catchment slopes, but these catchments also experienced areas with greater UOG densities and urbanization. Our analysis suggested Fayetteville and Barnett catchments were vulnerable due to existing anthropogenic exposure. However, all shale plays had catchments that spanned a wide vulnerability gradient. Our results identify vulnerable catchments that can help prioritize stream protection and monitoring efforts. Resource managers can also use these findings to guide local development activities to help reduce possible environmental effects.

PLoS ONE↗