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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Age estimates and uplift rates for late Pleistocene marine terraces: Southern Oregon portion of the Cascadia forearc

Interest in the Cascadia subduction zone has increased because recent investigations have suggested that slip along plates at certain types of convergent margins is characteristically accompanied by large earthquakes. In addition, other investigations have suggested that convergent margins can be broadly classified by the magnitude of their uplift rates. The authors generated new uranium series, amino acid, and stable isotope data for southern Oregon marine terrace fossils. These data, along with terrace elevations and two alternative estimates of sea level at the time of terrace formation, allow one to determine terrace ages and uplift rates. Uranium series analysis of fossil coral yields an age of 83 {plus minus} 5 ka for the Whisky Run terrace at Coquille Point in Bandon, Oregon. A combination of amino acid and oxygen isotope data suggest ages of about 80 and 105 ka for the lowest two terraces at Cape Blanco. These ages indicate uplift rates of 0.45-1.05 and 0.81-1.49 m/kyr for Coquille Point and Cape Blanco, respectively. In order to assess the utility of the southern Oregon uplift rates for predicting the behavior of the Cascadia subduction zone, the authors compared late Quaternary uplift rates derived from terrace data from subduction zones around the world. On the basis of this comparison the southern Oregon rates of vertical deformation are not usually high or low. Furthermore, late Quaternary uplift rates show little relationship to the type of convergent margin. In the case of the southern Oregon coast, variability in uplift rate probably reflects local structures in the overriding plate, and the rate of uplift cannot be used as a simple index of the potential for great earthquakes along the southern Cascadia subduction zone.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2021

Multi-year hydroclimatic droughts and pluvials across the conterminous United States

Time series of water‐year runoff for 2,109 hydrologic units (HUs) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the 1900 through 2014 period were used to identify drought and pluvial (i.e., wet) periods. Characteristics of the drought and pluvial events including frequency, duration, and severity were examined and compared. Additionally, a similar analysis was performed using gridded tree‐ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period 1475 through 2005 to place the drought and pluvial characteristics determined using water‐year runoff for 1900 through 2014 in the context of multi‐century climate variability. The temporal and spatial variability of droughts and pluvials determined using runoff for the 1900 through 2014 period indicated that most drought events in the CONUS occurred before about 1970, whereas most pluvial periods occurred after about 1970. This change in the frequencies of drought and pluvial events around 1970 was largely related to an increase in fall (October through December) precipitation across much of the central United States. Also, the duration and severity of droughts and pluvials identified using runoff for the 1900 through 2014 period generally were not significantly different from the drought and pluvial characteristics identified using the PDSI for the 1475 through 2005 period.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2004

Linear model describing three components of flow in karst aquifers using 18O data

The stable isotope of oxygen, 18O, is used as a naturally occurring ground-water tracer. Time-series data for ??18O are analyzed to model the distinct responses and relative proportions of the conduit, intermediate, and diffuse flow components in karst aquifers. This analysis also describes mathematically the dynamics of the transient fluid interchange between conduits and diffusive networks. Conduit and intermediate flow are described by linear-systems methods, whereas diffuse flow is described by mass-balance methods. An automated optimization process estimates parameters of lognormal, Pearson type III, and gamma distributions, which are used as transfer functions in linear-systems analysis. Diffuse flow and mixing parameters also are estimated by these optimization methods. Results indicate the relative proximity of a well to a main conduit flowpath and can help to predict the movement and residence times of potential contaminants. The three-component linear model is applied to five wells, which respond to changes in the isotopic composition of point recharge water from a sinking stream in the Madison aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Flow velocities as much as 540 m/d and system memories of as much as 71 years are estimated by this method. Also, the mean, median, and standard deviation of traveltimes; time to peak response; and the relative fraction of flow for each of the three components are determined for these wells. This analysis infers that flow may branch apart and rejoin as a result of an anastomotic (or channeled) karst network.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS1988

Pumping tests in nonuniform aquifers - The radially symmetric case

Traditionally, pumping-test-analysis methodology has been limited to applications involving aquifers whose properties are assumed uniform in space. This work attempts to assess the applicability of analytical methodology to a broader class of units with spatially varying properties. An examination of flow behavior in a simple configuration consisting of pumping from the center of a circular disk embedded in a matrix of differing properties is the basis for this investigation. A solution describing flow in this configuration is obtained through Laplace-transform techniques using analytical and numerical inversion schemes. Approaches for the calculation of flow properties in conditions that can be roughly represented by this simple configuration are proposed. Possible applications include a wide variety of geologic structures, as well as the case of a well skin resulting from drilling or development. Of more importance than the specifics of these techniques for analysis of water-level responses is the insight into flow behavior during a pumping test that is provided by the large-time form of the derived solution. The solution reveals that drawdown during a pumping test can be considered to consist of two components that are dependent and independent of near-well properties, respectively. Such an interpretation of pumping-test drawdown allows some general conclusions to be drawn concerning the relationship between parameters calculated using analytical approaches based on curve-matching and those calculated using approaches based on the slope of a semilog straight line plot. The infinite-series truncation that underlies the semilog analytical approaches is shown to remove further contributions of near-well material to total drawdown. In addition, the semilog distance-drawdown approach is shown to yield an expression that is equivalent to the Thiem equation. These results allow some general recommendations to be made concerning observation-well placement for pumping tests in nonuniform aquifers. The relative diffusivity of material on either side of a discontinuity is shown to be the major factor in controlling flow behavior during the period in which the front of the cone of depression is moving across the discontinuity. Though resulting from an analysis of flow in an idealized configuration, the insights of this work into flow behavior during a pumping test are applicable to a wide class of nonuniform units.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2020

Maximum entropy derived statistics of sound speed structure in a fine-grained sediment inferred from sparse broadband acoustic measurements on the New England continental shelf

Marginal probability distributions for parameters representing an effective sound-speed structure of a fine-grained sediment are inferred from a data ensemble maximum entropy method that utilizes a sparse spatially distributed set of received pressure time series resulting from multiple explosive sources in a shallow-water ocean environment possessing significant spatial variability of the seabed. A remote sensing seabed acoustics experiment undertaken in March 2017 off the New England Shelf was designed so that multiple independent analyses could infer the statistical properties of the seabed. The current analysis incorporates the measured horizontal variability from interpretations of a subbottom profiling survey of the experimental area. An idealized range- and azimuth-dependent parameterization of the seabed is derived from identification of horizons within the seabed that define multiple sediment layers. A sparse set of explosive charges were deployed on circular tracks with radii of about 2, 4, and 6.5 km with an acoustic array at the center to correlate a set of random measurements to physical acoustic processes that characterize the seabed. The mean values of a surface sound speed ratio and a linear sound speed gradient for the fine-grained sediment layer derived from 12 data samples processed in the 25–275-Hz band provide an estimate of the effective sound-speed structure in a 130-km $^2$ area. The inferred sediment sound speed values are evaluated by predicting measured time series data not used in the statistical inference, and are also compared to historical measurements. Finally, the low-frequency maximum entropy estimate of the sediment sound speed along with physical measurements derived from piston core measurements are utilized to estimate the sediment grain bulk modulus. predictions made by the viscous grain shearing model.

Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhod↗
USGS2017

Improved efficiency of maximum likelihood analysis of time series with temporally correlated errors

Most time series of geophysical phenomena have temporally correlated errors. From these measurements, various parameters are estimated. For instance, from geodetic measurements of positions, the rates and changes in rates are often estimated and are used to model tectonic processes. Along with the estimates of the size of the parameters, the error in these parameters needs to be assessed. If temporal correlations are not taken into account, or each observation is assumed to be independent, it is likely that any estimate of the error of these parameters will be too low and the estimated value of the parameter will be biased. Inclusion of better estimates of uncertainties is limited by several factors, including selection of the correct model for the background noise and the computational requirements to estimate the parameters of the selected noise model for cases where there are numerous observations. Here, I address the second problem of computational efficiency using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE). Most geophysical time series have background noise processes that can be represented as a combination of white and power-law noise, 1 / f α "> 1 / f α 1/fα with frequency, f . With missing data, standard spectral techniques involving FFTs are not appropriate. Instead, time domain techniques involving construction and inversion of large data covariance matrices are employed. Bos et al. (J Geod, 2013 . doi: 10.1007/s00190-012-0605-0 ) demonstrate one technique that substantially increases the efficiency of the MLE methods, yet is only an approximate solution for power-law indices >1.0 since they require the data covariance matrix to be Toeplitz. That restriction can be removed by simply forming a data filter that adds noise processes rather than combining them in quadrature. Consequently, the inversion of the data covariance matrix is simplified yet provides robust results for a wider range of power-law indices.

Journal of Geodesy↗
USGS2003

Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well, central Japan - I. Groundwater level changes revealed using state space decomposition of atmospheric pressure, rainfall and tidal responses

For the groundwater level observed at the Haibara well, Shizuoka Prefecture, central Japan, time series analysis using state-space modelling is applied to extract hydrological anomalies related to earthquakes. This method can decompose observed groundwater level time series into five components: atmospheric pressure, tidal, and precipitation responses, observation noise, and residual water level. The decomposed responses to atmospheric pressure and precipitation are independently determined and are consistent with the expected response to surface loading. In the groundwater level at the Haibara well, 28 coseismic changes can be discerned during the period from 1981 April to 1997 December. There is a threshold in the relationship between earthquake magnitude and the well-hypocentre distance, above which earthquakes cause coseismic changes in the residual water level. All of the coseismic water level changes at the Haibara well are decreases, although 33 per cent of the estimated coseismic volumetric strain steps are contraction, which would be expected to cause water level increases. The coseismic changes in groundwater level are more closely proportional to the estimated ground motion than to coseismic volumetric strain steps, suggesting that ground motion due to earthquakes is the major cause of the coseismic water level drops and that the contribution from static strain is rather small. Possible pre- or inter-earthquake water level changes have occurred at the Haibara well and may have been caused by local aseismic crustal deformation.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2008

Long-term water quality and biological responses to multiple best management practices in Rock Creek, Idaho

Water quality and macroinvertebrate assemblage data from 1981 to 2005 were assessed to evaluate the water quality and biological responses of a western trout stream to the implementation of multiple best management practices (BMPs) on irrigated cropland. Data from Rock Creek near Twin Falls, Idaho, a long-term monitoring site, were assembled from state and federal sources to provide the evaluation. Seasonal loads of the nonpoint source pollutants suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (TP), and nitrate-nitrite (NN) were estimated using a regression model with time-series streamflow data and constituent concentrations. Trends in the macroinvertebrate assemblages were evaluated using a number of biological metrics and nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination. Regression analysis found significant annual decreases in TP and SS flow-adjusted concentrations during the BMP implementation period from 1983 to 1990 of about 7 and 10%, respectively. These results are coincident with the implementation of multiple BMPs on about 75% of the irrigated cropland in the watershed. Macroinvertebrate assemblages during this time also responded with a change in taxa composition resulting in improved biotic index scores. Taxon specific TP and SS optima, empirically derived from a large national dataset, predicted a decrease in SS concentrations of about 37% (52 to 33 mg/l) and a decrease in TP concentrations of about 50% (0.20 to 0.10 mg/l) from 1981 to 1987. Decreasing trends in TP, SS, and NN pollutant loads were primarily the result of naturally low streamflow conditions during the BMP post-implementation period from 1993 to 2005. Trends in macroinvertebrate responses during 1993 to 2005 were confounded by the introduction of the New Zealand mudsnail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum), which approached densities of 100,000 per m 2 in riffle habitat. The occurrence of this invasive species appears to have caused a major shift in composition and function of the macroinvertebrate assemblages. ?? 2008 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2017

Impact of tile drainage on evapotranspiration in South Dakota, USA, based on high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration time series from a multi-satellite data fusion system

Soil drainage is a widely used agricultural practice in the midwest USA to remove excess soil water to potentially improve the crop yield. Research shows an increasing trend in baseflow and streamflow in the midwest over the last 60 years, which may be related to artificial drainage. Subsurface drainage (i.e., tile) in particular may have strongly contributed to the increase in these flows, because of its extensive use and recent gain in the popularity as a yield-enhancement practice. However, how evapotranspiration (ET) is impacted by tile drainage on a regional level is not well-documented. To explore spatial and temporal ET patterns and their relationship to tile drainage, we applied an energy balance-based multisensor data fusion method to estimate daily 30-m ET over an intensively tile-drained area in South Dakota, USA, from 2005 to 2013. Results suggest that tile drainage slightly decreases the annual cumulative ET, particularly during the early growing season. However, higher mid-season crop water use suppresses the extent of the decrease of the annual cumulative ET that might be anticipated from widespread drainage. The regional water balance analysis during the growing season demonstrates good closure, with the average residual from 2005 to 2012 as low as -3 mm. As an independent check of the simulated ET at the regional scale, the water balance analysis lends additional confidence to the study. The results of this study improve our understanding of the influence of agricultural drainage practices on regional ET, and can affect future decision making regarding tile drainage systems.

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗
USGS2025

Tailwater residency patterns of Silver Carp at Kentucky Lock and Dam

Objective The management of invasive Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix in the Tennessee River basin focuses on removal, and there is interest in extending removal efforts to the tailwater environments of high-head locks and dams along the Tennessee River, such as Kentucky Dam. We used acoustic telemetry data from Silver Carp to understand important ecological associations underlying their residence in the Kentucky Dam tailwater, measured by daily fish counts and mean residence time. Methods We used time-series-informed regression models, variance partitioning, and cross-correlation function analysis to associate six predictors, including lock and dam operations (total, spill gate, and turbine discharge and number of lockages), hydrology (tailwater elevation), and water temperature, with two measures of Silver Carp residency (daily counts and mean residence time). Results We found that spill-induced hydrology (total discharge + spill discharge + tailwater elevation) was negatively associated with daily counts but not with residence time, whereas temperature was positively associated with counts and negatively associated with residence times. Variance partitioning indicated that nearly all the variance in counts and residence times was jointly explained by temporal effects, lock and dam operations (discharge, tailwater elevation, and lockages), and temperature. The cross-correlations indicated that the counts were lagged by all predictors, sometimes up to 5 d, whereas residence times were lagged by both total and spill discharge and number of lockages. Conclusions We found that discharge and water temperature were principally associated with residency of Silver Carp in the Kentucky Dam tailwater. However, these associations were entirely temporally constrained, which can affect how strongly and how quickly Silver Carp respond to changing environmental conditions across different time scales. Managers can leverage these associations to plan removal periods where daily tailwater conditions/dam operations are favorable to invasive carp residence (e.g., >10°C and <2,500 m 3 /s) and adjust fishing effort to optimize removal rates in response to changing conditions.

Kentucky Lock and Dam↗
USGS2008

Implications of postseismic gravity change following the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake from the regional harmonic analysis of GRACE intersatellite tracking data

We report Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations of coseismic displacements and postseismic transients from the great Sumatra-Andaman Islands (thrust event; Mw ???9.2) earthquake in December 2004. Instead of using global spherical harmonic solutions of monthly gravity fields, we estimated the gravity changes directly using intersatellite range-rate data with regionally concentrated spherical Slepian basis functions every 15-day interval. We found significant step-like (coseismic) and exponential-like (postseismic) behavior in the time series of estimated coefficients (from May 2003 to April 2007) for the spherical Slepian function's. After deriving coseismic slip estimates from seismic and geodetic data that spanned different time intervals, we estimated and evaluated postseismic relaxation mechanisms with alternate asthenosphere viscosity models. The large spatial coverage and uniform accuracy of our GRACE solution enabled us to clearly delineate a postseismic transient signal in the first 2 years of postearthquake GRACE data. Our preferred interpretation of the long-wavelength components of the postseismic avity change is biviscous viscoelastic flow. We estimated a transient viscosity of 5 ??17 Pa s and a steady state viscosity of 5 ?? 1018 - 1019 Pa s. Additional years of the GRACE observations should provide improved steady state viscosity estimates. In contrast to our interpretation of coseismic gravity change, the prominent postearthquake positive gravity change around the Nicobar Islands is accounted for by seafloor uplift with less postseismic perturbation in intrinsic density in the region surrounding the earthquake. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2022

Insights on multistage rock avalanche behavior from runout modeling constrained by seismic inversions

Inversion of low-frequency regional seismic records to solve for a time series of bulk forces exerted on the earth by a landslide (a force-time function) is increasingly being used to infer volumes and dynamics of large, highly energetic landslides, such as rock avalanches and flowslides, and to provide calibration information on event dynamics and volumes for numerical landslide runout models. Much of the work to date using landslide runout modeling constrained by seismic data has focused on using single-phase models with frictional or velocity-weakening rheologies. Awareness of multistage landslide initiations is increasing, with discrete failures separated in time contributing to the final impact of an event. Our work utilizes a method for incorporating seismic data as a calibration constraint for landslide runout models, considering variable rheologies and different initiation conditions. This study presents a systematic examination of multiple rheologies and initiation conditions, and shows how these factors affect the force-time function derived from the landslide runout model. Our work confirms that, while rheology and fragmenting or initially coherent initiations affect the force-time function, multiple collapses separated by tens of seconds have the greatest impact on the shape and amplitude. We apply this method to the analysis of three real rock avalanches to better constrain plausible initiation conditions and rheology parameters using both seismic and field data. This study provides insights on how assumptions about the initiation dynamics of the source zone and the runout model definition can aid in the interpretation of seismic inversions for multistage rock avalanches.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

Factors affecting suspended-solids concentrations in South San Francisco Bay, California

Measurements of suspended-solids concentration (SSC) were made at two depths at three sites in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay) to determine the factors that affect SSC. Twenty-eight segments of reliable and continuous SSC time series data longer than 14 days were collected from late 1991 or 1992 through September 1993. Spectral analysis and singular spectrum analysis were used to relate these data segments to time series of several potential forcing factors, including diurnal and semidiurnal tides, the spring-neap tidal cycle, wind shear, freshwater runoff, and longitudinal density differences. SSC is greatest during summer, when a landward wind shear is applied to South Bay by the afternoon sea breeze. About one half the variance of SSC is caused by the spring-neap cycle, and SSC lags the spring-neap cycle by about 2 days. Relatively short duration of slack water limits the duration of deposition of suspended solids and consolidation of newly deposited bed sediment during the tidal cycle, so suspended solids accumulate in the water column as a spring tide is approached and slowly deposit as a neap tide is approached. Perturbations in SSC caused by wind and local runoff from winter storms during the study period were usually much smaller than SSC variations caused by the spring-neap cycle. Variations of SSC at the study sites at tidal timescales are tidally forced, and nonlinear physical processes are significant. Advective transport dominates during spring tides, when water with higher SSC due to wind wave resuspension is advected to the main channel from shallow water, but, during neap tides, advective transport is less significant. The findings of this and other studies indicate that the tidally averaged transport of suspended solids responds to seasonal variations of wind shear in South Bay.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2018

A framework for identifying and characterising coral reef “oases” against a backdrop of degradation

Human activities have led to widespread ecological decline; however, the severity of degradation is spatially heterogeneous due to some locations resisting, escaping, or rebounding from disturbances. We developed a framework for identifying oases within coral reef regions using long‐term monitoring data. We calculated standardised estimates of coral cover ( z ‐scores) to distinguish sites that deviated positively from regional means. We also used the coefficient of variation (CV) of coral cover to quantify how oases varied temporally, and to distinguish among types of oases. We estimated “coral calcification capacity” (CCC), a measure of the coral community's ability to produce calcium carbonate structures and tested for an association between this metric and z ‐scores of coral cover. We illustrated our z ‐score approach within a modelling framework by extracting z ‐scores and CVs from simulated data based on four generalized trajectories of coral cover. We then applied the approach to time‐series data from long‐term reef monitoring programmes in four focal regions in the Pacific (the main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea, French Polynesia) and western Atlantic (the Florida Keys and St. John, US Virgin Islands). Among the 123 sites analysed, 38 had positive z ‐scores for median coral cover and were categorised as oases. Synthesis and applications . Our framework provides ecosystem managers with a valuable tool for conservation by identifying “oases” within degraded areas. By evaluating trajectories of change in state (e.g., coral cover) among oases, our approach may help in identifying the mechanisms responsible for spatial variability in ecosystem condition. Increased mechanistic understanding can guide whether management of a particular location should emphasise protection, mitigation or restoration. Analysis of the empirical data suggest that the majority of our coral reef oases originated by either escaping or resisting disturbances, although some sites showed a high capacity for recovery, while others were candidates for restoration. Finally, our measure of reef condition (i.e., median z ‐scores of coral cover) correlated positively with coral calcification capacity suggesting that our approach identified oases that are also exceptional for one critical component of ecological function.

Florida, Hawaii↗
USGS2013

cBathy: A robust algorithm for estimating nearshore bathymetry

A three-part algorithm is described and tested to provide robust bathymetry maps based solely on long time series observations of surface wave motions. The first phase consists of frequency-dependent characterization of the wave field in which dominant frequencies are estimated by Fourier transform while corresponding wave numbers are derived from spatial gradients in cross-spectral phase over analysis tiles that can be small, allowing high-spatial resolution. Coherent spatial structures at each frequency are extracted by frequency-dependent empirical orthogonal function (EOF). In phase two, depths are found that best fit weighted sets of frequency-wave number pairs. These are subsequently smoothed in time in phase 3 using a Kalman filter that fills gaps in coverage and objectively averages new estimates of variable quality with prior estimates. Objective confidence intervals are returned. Tests at Duck, NC, using 16 surveys collected over 2 years showed a bias and root-mean-square (RMS) error of 0.19 and 0.51 m, respectively but were largest near the offshore limits of analysis (roughly 500 m from the camera) and near the steep shoreline where analysis tiles mix information from waves, swash and static dry sand. Performance was excellent for small waves but degraded somewhat with increasing wave height. Sand bars and their small-scale alongshore variability were well resolved. A single ground truth survey from a dissipative, low-sloping beach (Agate Beach, OR) showed similar errors over a region that extended several kilometers from the camera and reached depths of 14 m. Vector wave number estimates can also be incorporated into data assimilation models of nearshore dynamics.

North Carolina↗
USGS2014

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Georgia↗
USGS2002

Analysis of long-period events recorded at Mount Etna (Italy) in 1992, and their relationship to eruptive activity

Seismic activity recorded at Mount Etna during 1992 was characterized by long-period (LP) events and tremor with fluctuating amplitudes. These signals were associated with the evolution of the eruptive activity that began on December 14, 1991. Following the occurrence of numerous volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the onset of the eruption, LP events dominated the overall seismicity starting in January, 1992. The LP activity occurred primarily in swarms, which were temporally correlated with episodic collapses of the crater floor in the Northeast Crater. Source depths determined for selected LP events suggest a source region located slightly east of Northeast Crater and extending from the surface to a depth of 2000 m. Based on the characteristic signatures of the time series, four families of LP events are identified. Each family shares common spectral peaks independent of azimuth and distance to the source. These spectral features are used to develop a fluid-filled crack model of the source. We hypothesize that the locus of the LP events represents a segment of the magma feeding system connecting a depressurizing magma body with a dike extending in the SSE direction along the western wall of Valle del Bove, toward the site of the Mount Etna eruption. We surmise that magma withdrawal from the source volume beneath Northeast Crater may have caused repeated collapses of the crater floor. Some collapse events may have produced pressure transients in the subjacent dike which acted as seismic wave sources for LP events.

Mount Etna, Sicily↗