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239 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Did they feel it? Legacy maroseismic data illuminates an engimatic 20th century earthquake

The challenges and the importance of preserving legacy instrumental records of earthquakes are now well-recognized (e.g., Richards & Hellweg, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200053 ). Seismologists may not be aware of parallel challenges and opportunities with legacy macroseismic data for earthquakes in the United States. For much of the 20th century, macroseismic data were collected by a series of U.S. government agencies using a standard questionnaire distributed on postcards. Published summaries of postcards provide macroseismic data akin to modern Did You Feel It? questionnaire responses. In this paper we focus on the M 6.5 Fickle Hill, California earthquake, on 21 December 1954 (Hellweg et al., 2025) as a proof-of-concept, illustrating the potential of what we dub Did They Feel It? (DTFI) data to improve our understanding of significant 20th century U.S. earthquakes for which instrumental data are sparse. Legacy macroseismic data interpreted following modern conventions can potentially constrain traditional ShakeMaps at a level of detail and accuracy that in some respects rival maps for modern earthquakes. The updated ShakeMap for the 1954 Fickle Hill earthquake, also drawing from recently published media and first-person accounts, supports the location, depth, and stress drop value estimated from available instrumental data (Hellweg et al., 2025).

California↗
USGS2025

Earthquake stress-drop values delineate spatial variations in maximum shear stress in the Japanese forearc lithosphere

Earthquake stress drop (Δσ) may increase with depth and stress in the brittle lithosphere. However, the range of uncertainty in Δσ and the lack of constraints on absolute stress make it difficult to establish whether they are correlated. Here, we investigate Δσ dependence on depth and maximum shear stress ( τ max ) based on ~11 years of seismicity in the northeastern Japanese forearc following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki megathrust earthquake. We interpret Δσ estimates computed using both individual spectra and spectral-ratio methods and find that Δσ exhibits a clear depth dependence within the seismically active upper ~60 km of the forearc lithosphere ( ~ 0.8 MPa per 10 km). We further compare Δσ values with quantitative τ max estimates from finite-element models of force balance. We find that median Δσ values increase with τ max in the brittle forearc lithosphere and that earthquake stress release is proportional to τ max . The dependence of Δσ on τ max explains the apparent depth dependence of Δσ and suggests that average Δσ values provide a relative measure of the stress at failure. In the northeastern Japanese forearc, Δσ values remained roughly constant in the decade following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, suggesting negligible changes in failure stress in the forearc since the mainshock.

Communications Earth and Environment↗
USGS2026

The damability function: A probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Landslides can dam rivers and require rapid response to mitigate catastrophic outburst floods. Here, we present a workflow to map landslide dam formation susceptibility at a regional scale. We define a probabilistic function that combines river valley width and landslide volume to efficiently determine the likelihood of a landslide dam or “damability”. We combine damability values with landslide susceptibility to estimate landslide dam susceptibility. The valley width measurements are automated using a new elevation threshold-based algorithm. Landslide volume is represented as a statistical distribution from mapped landslides. We validate and apply our approach to the Oregon Coast Range, USA and find that 36 % of river stretches exceed a dam potential threshold; these are in river headwaters and steeper terrain, which in this case correlate with more resistant lithologies. We also estimate volumes of the potential dammed lakes and find that most rivers with high dam susceptibility are less likely to impound large lakes because they have low drainage areas. However, widespread susceptibility, and the potential impacts from exceptionally large landslides, suggest that this hazard should be considered in the Pacific Northwest. The damability function workflow can ingest new data and be applied more broadly to assess future landslide dam hazards.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Metaproteomics and metagenomics reveal microbial pathways of organic matter degradation and methanogenesis in a marginally producing natural gas well

The expansion of natural gas production and utilization worldwide has led to the decline of many once-productive wells, eventually resulting in costly well-plugging and unused infrastructure. However, in areas like the Michigan basin, MI, where the majority of natural gas is biogenically produced, microbial communities could potentially be stimulated to generate additional methane, increasing gas supply and reducing the need to drill new wells. In this study, we performed metaproteomic, metagenomic, and geochemical analyses of Antrim Shale formation water from a marginally producing natural gas well to evaluate resident microbial community functions in the context of potential bioenergy production. Functional proteins involved in methanogenesis, degradation/catabolism (including organic matter degradation), biosynthesis, energy utilization, transmembrane transport, and stress response were among the most commonly identified groups. Three metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) were characterized, including Methanomicrobiaceae, Methanothrix , and Smithella . For each, the identified proteins involved in methanogenesis and the degradation of diverse organic compounds, strongly suggest their role in utilizing shale-derived organic matter. These findings provide an increased understanding of the microorganisms and their metabolisms generating natural gas in the Antrim Shale and establish a foundation for future stimulation efforts aimed at enhancing biogenic methane production in marginal gas wells.

Michigan↗
USGS2026

Continental-scale prediction of hydrologic signatures and processes

Understanding how dominant hydrologic processes and their drivers vary across diverse continental-scale landscapes is critical for hydrologic modeling and water management applications. Our research addresses this question by synthesizing large-sample watershed datasets, Caravan and GAGES-II, and developing random forest models to identify patterns in hydrologic function. We assessed dominant processes by examining hydrologic signatures – summary indicators of watershed function derived from hydroclimatic time series and random forest models across 14 146 gauged United States watersheds. The results reveal clear continental-scale gradients in hydrologic processes, including baseflow, overland flow, storage, and water balance losses. Our map of dominant processes highlights, for example, the transition from baseflow to fast responses and back to baseflow along the elevation gradient from the Appalachian spine, through the Piedmont, to the Eastern Coastal Plain; a distinct outer ring around the Great Lakes region; and sharp contrasts between coastal and inland processes in the West. Variable importance analysis from random forest models show that processes in the western U.S. are primarily controlled by climate, whereas in the eastern U.S., soil, geology, and topography play larger roles, with distinct human influences apparent in urban areas. Our approach of estimating dominant processes and their drivers facilitates extending process knowledge from research watersheds to the continental scale, assessing current hydrological understanding, and evaluating hydrological model structures.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States

Reliable estimates of debris-flow volume can be used to help predict the magnitude of debris-flow hazards following wildfire in the western United States. In this study, we compiled and used a database of 227 postfire debris-flow volumes that were collected across the western United States to develop a multiple linear regression model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume. We explored 36 predictor variables related to rainfall, terrain, and fire characteristics, and selected the model with the combination of variables that yielded the most accurate predictions of debris-flow volume. We evaluated model performance against the entire volume database, as well as against four subsets of volume data from southern California, the Intermountain West, the Southwest, and regions with limited volume data, such as northern California and Washington. We also compared model performance against 3 existing postfire debris-flow volume models that were developed for use in southern California, the Intermountain West, and the Southwest. We demonstrate that the new volume model performs as well as the regional models in the regions for which they were developed and outperforms existing models when applied to volumes from data-limited regions in the western United States. These results indicate that the debris-flow volume model introduced in this study can be used to improve postfire hazard assessments across the western United States, especially outside of southern California.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W↗
USGS2025

An exploration of the relative influence of physical models for Omori’s law

Omori’s law states that the rate of aftershocks decays as a function of inverse time. There are multiple physical explanations that we reduce into a nonlinear mixed effects relation of three terms: (1) a Rate/State expression that can account for static/dynamic and viscoelastic triggering caused directly by the mainshock, (2) a fluid diffusion triggering term, and (3) a randomized secondary triggering (cascade) term. We fit free physical-model parameters to an observed aftershock sequence through two nonlinear regression methods to find the relative contributions of physics-based models in an observed aftershock sequence. Results from both methods show that Rate/State models overpredict aftershock rates by ∼0–30%. Secondary aftershocks cause a net negative contribution (seismicity rate reduction that corrects overprediction by other terms) ranging between ∼0 and 30%. All regression solutions yield negative secondary triggering contributions without being guided to do so. A physical explanation for this is that aftershock occurrence relieves stress from the crust, ultimately causing the sequence to extinguish itself. Fluid diffusion triggering contributions range from ∼0 to 20%. Diffusion processes are observed to be shorter in time than the full duration of an aftershock sequence and they are also spatially limited, diminishing their influence. Our results apply to an aftershock decay curve from the 2016 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, meaning that our specific results may not be general. Our primary conclusion is that any one physical model cannot alone fit the observed sequence as well as the combination of three we investigated.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2024

RegionGrow3D: A deterministic analysis for characterizing discrete three-dimensional landslide source areas on a regional scale

Regional-scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics-based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three-dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad-scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km 2 ) using 3D, limit-equilibrium (LE)-based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back-calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE-based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2026

Dynamic drainage reorganization in Eastern Tibet: Insights from the Yangtze River first bend

The modern drainage network of eastern Tibet is widely believed to have developed through a series of river capture and flow reversal events; however, the timing and mechanisms driving this reorganization remain contentious. Among these events, the river capture that formed the First Bend of the Yangtze River (YFB) stands out as both iconic and particularly debated. Here we present sedimentary provenance data from the Late Miocene–Quaternary Dali Basin, located south of the YFB, which indicate that a southward-flowing Jinsha River (i.e., the present-day upper Yangtze River) sourced sediment to the Dali basin at ∼7.4–6.4 Ma in a drainage configuration different from that of today. Because this interval postdates the initial establishment of a near-modern Jinsha River system prior to the Miocene, our results imply at least two discrete fluvial reorganizations occurred at the YFB—one preceding ∼7.4 Ma and another following ∼6.4 Ma. By integrating these findings with landscape evolution modeling, we infer that the initiation of rapid uplift of the Yulong-Haba Mountains and the Diancang Shan may have been responsible for these drainage reorganizations. These results underscore that Cenozoic drainage systems on the eastern Tibetan Plateau have evolved dynamically on a short timescale of ∼10 5 –10 6 -year, rather than remaining in a long-term stationary configuration on ∼10 7 -year timescales.

eastern Tibetan Plateau, first bend of the Yangtze↗
USGS2025

Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology

Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a dimensionless index for landslide-inducing rainfall, A * , based on extremes of modeled soil water relative to its local climatology. We calibrate A * using four landslide inventories, comprising over 11 000 individual landslides over four unique storm events, and find that a common threshold can be applied to estimate regional shallow-landslide-triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). We then use the spatial distribution of A * , along with topography, to calculate the landslide potential area (LPA) for nine landslide-inducing storm events over the past 20 years, and we test whether atmospheric metrics describing the strength of landfalling storms, such as integrated water vapor transport, correlate with the magnitude of hazardous landslide-inducing rainfall. We find that although the events with the largest LPA do occur during exceptional atmospheric river (AR) storms, the strength of landfalling atmospheric rivers does not scale neatly with landslide potential area, and even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal landslide impacts. Other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture driven by storm frequency and mesoscale precipitation features within storms, are instead more likely to dictate the patterns of landslide-generating rainfall throughout the state.

California↗
USGS2026

Multi-site evaluation of a postfire debris-flow runout forecast method

Postfire debris flows pose a hazard to human life, property, and infrastructure when they travel from steep source areas to urbanized alluvial fans or other developed areas. Existing methods for rapid (<1 week) postfire debris-flow hazard assessment document the increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows as the magnitude of high-intensity rain necessary to initiate debris flows increases but do not indicate the extent of downstream debris-flow runout. Although many models for the simulation of debris-flow motion are available, there is no established approach for using these models to delineate locations susceptible to postfire debris-flow runout that (a) is feasible to use at the spatial scale of an entire fire; (b) is appropriate for runout onto unconfined areas; (c) reproduces observed relations between runout and rainfall intensity; and (d) characterizes inherent uncertainty in runout, even without spatiotemporally variable rainfall. We propose and evaluate a method for generating postfire debris-flow runout hazard maps that has all the above qualities. Selection of case studies prioritized events triggered by a range of rainfall intensities, locations within and outside of southern California, and observed runout onto unconfined topography. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of performance for four events indicate that simulation results broadly match observations albeit with some discrepancies at a scale larger than structure or land parcel level (approximately 20-m by 20-m). The method may be used to identify potentially hazardous areas immediately following a fire and to provide approximate runout forecasts when a storm is imminent.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2025

Uncertainty reduction for subaerial landslide-tsunami hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Investigating the influence of climate and volcanic surface aging on fluvial erosion: A case study of Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

Precipitation is one of the dominant drivers of landscape erosion and evolution; however, the effects of typical rainfall compared with less frequent, high-magnitude precipitation events on erosion remain unclear. Volcanic islands are ideal locations to study such phenomena due to their simple geometries, nontectonic construction, and strong spatiotemporal rainfall gradients. However, spatial variation in surface age, created during their construction, often complicates their degradation histories by introducing temporal changes in erosion rates as drainage networks develop. Réunion Island (western Indian Ocean) presents a clear example of this, with an east–west gradient in both surface age and mean annual precipitation, as well as infrequent cyclones that alter the background rainfall pattern. In this study, we analyze the effects of surface age, average rainfall, and rainfall variability on basin development and fluvial erosion across the island. We calculate basin-averaged values of basin morphology, age, precipitation, river discharge, eroded volumes, and erosion rates, and use these to analyze the dominant drivers of landscape evolution through a series of correlation analyses. Our results indicate a temporal dependence on the influence of precipitation, with young surfaces being dominantly eroded by high-rainfall events and older surfaces eroded by mean annual rainfall patterns. Furthermore, we show that drainage development of shield volcanoes follows similar trends to other volcano types, and suggest that surface permeability and groundwater structure are important controls on runoff-driven erosion on shield volcanoes. These results add new components to the question of how precipitation impacts erosion.

Réunion Island↗
USGS2024

Constraining mean landslide occurrence rates for non-temporal landslide inventories using high-resolution elevation data

Constraining landslide occurrence rates can help to generate landslide hazard models that predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. However, most landslide inventories do not include any temporal data due to the difficulties of dating landslide deposits. Here we introduce a method for estimating the mean landslide occurrence rate of deep-seated rotational and translational slides derived solely from high-resolution (≤3 m) elevation data and globally available estimates of the diffusion coefficient for sediment flux. The method applies a linear diffusion model to the roughest landslide deposits until they reach a representative non-landslide roughness distribution. This estimates the time for a landslide deposit to be unrecognizable in high-resolution digital elevation data, which we term the mean lifetime of the landslide. Using the mean lifetime and number of landslides within an area of interest, we can estimate the mean occurrence rate of landslides over that domain. We validate this approach using a comprehensive temporal inventory of landslides in western Oregon created using age-roughness curves that are calibrated with high-resolution elevation data and radiocarbon data. We find good agreement between our diffusion method and the existing age-roughness-derived estimates, producing mean lifetimes of 4500 and 5200 years (4% difference), respectively. Hazard maps produced using the two methodologies generally agree, with the maximum differences in landslide probability reaching 0.1. Due to the relative abundance of high-resolution elevation data compared with age-dated landslides, our method could help constrain landslide occurrence rates in areas previously considered unfeasible.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut

Compound flood events, the co-occurrence of multiple flood drivers, can result in flood hazard potential exceeding that of any single driver alone. To evaluate compound flooding in a semi-urbanized coastal area, historical records dating back to 1970 are used to study the co-occurrences of high precipitation, storm surge, and shallow groundwater conditions along the coastlines of New York and Connecticut. Joint return periods for coincident precipitation-surge events were computed using statistical dependence models and compared to the assumption of independence as a ratio, referred to here as a return period adjustment. Results indicate distinct seasonality where compound events in the area disproportionately occur in the cold season between October and April. Return period adjustments range from a factor of 1 to almost 9, demonstrating the range in precipitation-storm surge dependence across the study area. Across all 24 station triad locations, groundwater levels were elevated during times of precipitation- surge co-occurrence, reflecting the tendency for coastal storms and shallow groundwater conditions to co-occur seasonally. The result is a pseudo-trivariate compound flood hazard score and corresponding hazard map that integrates dependence between daily precipitation-surge events and overall monthly groundwater levels (as a precondition) into a relative compound hazard score. The location with the highest compound flood hazard score is on the south shore of Long Island, as well as locations across coastal Connecticut where groundwater levels compound the co-occurrence of heavy precipitation and storm surge.

Connecticut, New York↗
USGS2025

Groundwater salinity: Applying the specific conductance and water type proxy

Groundwater is increasingly needed for water supplies but may have limited utility in some locations because of its salinity. Salinity, often expressed as total dissolved solid (TDS), is frequently estimated using specific conductance (SC) measurements. However, the commonly used proxy (0.65 multiplied by SC to indicate TDS, common in many handheld meters) can result in inaccurate TDS estimates. First, the TDS–SC relationship is not linear over the entire concentration range of groundwater. Furthermore, the TDS (and salinity)–SC relationships vary substantially depending on the major-ion composition. Here we develop a proxy method utilizing SC and major-ion water type to estimate TDS and salinity specifically for groundwaters. Compared to most surface waters, groundwater tends to have a wider range of salinity (fresh to highly saline) and higher concentrations of bedrock-derived solutes such as carbonate ions, silica, and many other ions. The dataset used to develop the proxies includes water chemistry data from 149,059 discrete groundwater samples. The groundwater proxies, which employ nonlinear log–log relations, utilize five water types (HCO 3 , Cl, Ca-Mg-SO 4 , Na-K-SO 4 , and mixed waters), are accurate (median percent difference between TDS and salinity determined using the proxy compared to discrete measurements was <±0.8%) over a wide range of SC (up to 200 mS/cm), rapid, cost-effective, and can be measured on-site.

Groundwater↗
USGS2025

New constraints on location and timing of the Great Lakes tectonic zone, central Upper Peninsula, Michigan, USA

The Great Lakes tectonic zone (GLTZ) forms the boundary between the Wawa–Abitibi and Minnesota River Valley subprovinces within the Archean Superior Province. The GLTZ is concealed for all of its 1100 km length, except for a segment in the central Upper Peninsula of Michigan. There, it is exposed as a northwest-striking mylonite zone along a 11 km segment, extending to the onlap of Paleozoic rocks to the east. Farther east, its location has been unknown. Here, we use aeromagnetic and gravity data to develop interpretations of the expression of the GLTZ and to define its extent under cover. Aeromagnetic gradients over the mylonite zone are interpreted to be produced by structurally juxtaposed rocks with varying magnetizations. Gravity data show a regional gradient along the GLTZ, produced by the juxtaposition of a dense greenstone belt on the north against lower-density gneisses and granites on the south. The GLTZ is interpreted to extend ∼55 km under cover to the east. The GLTZ is terminated on the east by the buried eastern arm of the ca. 1100 Ma Midcontinent Rift. An undeformed granitic dike that cuts the mylonitic foliation produces a U–Pb apatite age of 2523 ± 33 Ma, implying no major post-Archean shearing occurred, and is at odds with previous interpretations of major Proterozoic reactivation. A granite intrusion in the Minnesota River Valley subprovince produces a Pb–Pb zircon age of 2606.9 ± 3.6/7.4 Ma. This suggests that magmatism related to the Sacred Heart orogeny, previously known in Minnesota, extended to Michigan.

Michigan↗
USGS2026

Geophysical architecture and geochronology of the Neoarchean Mentor anorthosite intrusive complex, northwestern Minnesota: Largest anorthosite complex of the Superior Province?

The Neoarchean Mentor anorthosite intrusive complex (MAIC) lies within the Wawa subprovince in northwestern Minnesota, in a region where the Wawa, Quetico, and Wabigoon subprovinces are juxtaposed in close proximity. Archean rocks are entirely concealed, and interpretations are developed from aeromagnetic, gravity, and borehole samples. The MAIC includes both anorthosite (dense, weakly magnetized) and oxide-rich gabbro (strongly magnetized) lithologies. Anorthosite is coarse-grained to megacrystic, intensely altered, and locally brecciated. Pervasive epidote alteration enhanced the density of the anorthosite via introduction of higher-density mineral assemblages, explaining why the MAIC produces a significant gravity high. Oxide-rich gabbro forms a border phase of the MAIC and has potential for vanadium, chromium, and titanium mineralization, and produces a strong aeromagnetic high. The MAIC is interpreted to extend over an area of 640 km 2 , making it the largest known anorthosite complex of the Superior Province, as measured by preserved areal extent. Modeling indicates the MAIC extends more than 6 km into the subsurface. A new Pb–Pb zircon age of 2737.2 ± 4.5 Ma is interpretated as the crystallization age of anorthosite within the MAIC, showing that the MAIC formed well before the ca. 2690 Ma Shebandowanian orogeny, and raising new questions about correlations with other parts of the Wawa subprovince. A low-density batholith, here informally called the Fertile batholith, is interpreted to intrude the southern part of the MAIC. A new Pb–Pb zircon age of 2701.1 ± 6 Ma is interpreted as the magmatic age of the Fertile batholith.

Minnesota↗