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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Overview of the 2010 Haiti earthquake

The 12 January 2010 M w 7.0 earthquake in the Republic of Haiti caused an estimated 300,000 deaths, displaced more than a million people, and damaged nearly half of all structures in the epicentral area. We provide an overview of the historical, seismological, geotechnical, structural, lifeline-related, and socioeconomic factors that contributed to the catastrophe. We also describe some of the many challenges that must be overcome to enable Haiti to recover from this event. Detailed analyses of these issues are presented in other papers in this volume.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2013

Climate-change impacts on ecological systems: Introduction to a US assessment

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject‐matter experts from government agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and provide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assessments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate‐change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assessment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2001

Geologic studies of deep natural gas resources

In 1995, the USGS estimated a mean resource of 114 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered technically recoverable natural gas in plays deeper than 15,000 feet/4,572 meters in onshore regions of the United States. This volume summarizes major conclusions of ongoing work. Chapters A and B address the areal extent of drilling and distribution of deep basins in the U.S. Chapter C summarizes distribution of deep sedimentary basins and potential for deep gas in the former Soviet Union. Chapters D and E are geochemical papers addressing source-rock issues and deep gas generation. Chapter F develops a probabilistic method for subdividing gas resources into depth slices, and chapter G analyzes the relative uncertainty of estimates of deep gas in plays in the Gulf Coast Region. Chapter H evaluates the mechanism of hydrogenation of deep, high-rank spent kerogen by water, with subsequent generation of methane-rich HC gas.

Data Series↗
USGS2002

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Book chapter↗
USGS1985

MARINE MINERAL RESOURCES - AN UPDATE AND INTRODUCTION.

This article briefly traces the status of marine minerals development, and it describes papers presented in this special issue on the subject. Subjects covered include types of deposits, marine mining in Canada, Manganese nodules, metalliferous sulfides as seabed minerals, metallurgical processes for reducing sulfide minerals, U. S. phosphate industry, construction materials and placers, and industry problems.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗
USGS1991

Integration of remote sensing and GIS: Data and data access

CT: Theintegration of remote sensing tools and technology with the spatial analysis orientation of geographic information systems is a complex task. In this paper, we focus on the issues of making data available and useful to the user. In part, this involves a set of problems which reflect on the physical and logical structures used to encode the data. At the same time, however, the mechanisms and protocols which provide information about the data, and which maintain the data through time, have become increasingly important. We discuss these latter issues from the viewpoint of the functions which must be provided by archives of spatial data.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2001

Engineering implications of ground motions from the 1999 Turkey earthquakes

The August 17, 1999 Izmit (Turkey) earthquake ( M w =7.4) will be remembered as one of the largest earthquakes of recent times that affected a large urban environment. The shaking that caused the widespread damage and destruction was recorded by a handful of accelerographs operated by different networks in the earthquake area. As rebuilding in Turkey starts and picks up speed, the recorded ground motions that adversely affected the built-up environment are being studied intensively to explain the past disaster and for the implications for future earthquakes. New forecasts of future large earthquakes in the ever growing urban environment of Istanbul and its vicinities necessitates better preparation and extensive planning to upgrade and retrofit existing infrastructures. To successfully execute these endeavors, it is imperative to have better defined ground motion characteristics. This paper aims at discussing the issues related to the engineering implications of the recorded ground motions. The main shock records show that the peak accelerations, even those from near-field stations that exhibit the characteristic near-fault pulses that cause large displacements, are smaller than expected. On the other hand, smaller magnitude aftershocks yielded larger peak accelerations. This is attributed to the sparse networks, which possibly missed the recording of larger motions during the main shock - particularly in the heavily damaged areas of South Izmit Bay. Aftershocks recorded at such areas are used to estimate the missed main shock ground motions. Accordingly, the estimated motions in South Izmit Bay are approximately 1 g highly polarized in N-S direction. These attributes have significant engineering implications to be considered during the rebuilding phase and beyond.

Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata↗
USGS2000

Preface paper to the Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere (SALSA) Program special issue

The Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere Program (SALSA) is a multi-agency, multi-national research effort that seeks to evaluate the consequences of natural and human-induced environmental change in semi-arid regions. The ultimate goal of SALSA is to advance scientific understanding of the semi-arid portion of the hydrosphere-biosphere interface in order to provide reliable information for environmental decision making. SALSA approaches this goal through a program of long-term, integrated observations, process research, modeling, assessment, and information management that is sustained by cooperation among scientists and information users. In this preface to the SALSA special issue, general program background information and the critical nature of semi-arid regions is presented. A brief description of the Upper San Pedro River Basin, the initial location for focused SALSA research follows. Several overarching research objectives under which much of the interdisciplinary research contained in the special issue was undertaken are discussed. Principal methods, primary research sites and data collection used by numerous investigators during 1997-1999 are then presented. Scientists from about 20 US, five European (four French and one Dutch), and three Mexican agencies and institutions have collaborated closely to make the research leading to this special issue a reality. The SALSA Program has served as a model of interagency cooperation by breaking new ground in the approach to large scale interdisciplinary science with relatively limited resources.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Uncertainty management, spatial and temporal reasoning, and validation of intelligent environmental decision support systems

There are inherent open problems arising when developing and running Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS). During daily operation of IEDSS several open challenge problems appear. The uncertainty of data being processed is intrinsic to the environmental system, which is being monitored by several on-line sensors and off-line data. Thus, anomalous data values at data gathering level or even uncertain reasoning process at later levels such as in diagnosis or decision support or planning can lead the environmental process to unsafe critical operation states. At diagnosis level or even at decision support level or planning level, spatial reasoning or temporal reasoning or both aspects can influence the reasoning processes undertaken by the IEDSS. Most of Environmental systems must take into account the spatial relationships between the environmental goal area and the nearby environmental areas and the temporal relationships between the current state and the past states of the environmental system to state accurate and reliable assertions to be used within the diagnosis process or decision support process or planning process. Finally, a related issue is a crucial point: are really reliable and safe the decisions proposed by the IEDSS? Are we sure about the goodness and performance of proposed solutions? How can we ensure a correct evaluation of the IEDSS? Main goal of this paper is to analyse these four issues, review some possible approaches and techniques to cope with them, and study new trends for future research within the IEDSS field.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”

Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS2000

From safe yield to sustainable development of water resources - The Kansas experience

This paper presents a synthesis of water sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective. It shows that safe yield is a flawed concept and that sustainability is an idea that is broadly used but perhaps not well understood. In general, the sustainable yield of an aquifer must be considerably less than recharge if adequate amounts of water are to be available to sustain both the quantity and quality of streams, springs, wetlands, and ground-water-dependent ecosystems. To ensure sustainability, it is imperative that water limits be established based on hydrologic principles of mass balance. To establish water-use policies and planning horizons, the transition curves of aquifer systems from ground-water storage depletion to induced recharge of surface water need to be developed. Present-day numerical models are capable of generating such transition curves. Several idealized examples of aquifer systems show how this could be done. Because of the complexity of natural systems and the uncertainties in characterizing them, the current philosophy underlying sustainable management of water resources is based on the interconnected systems approach and on adaptive management. Examples of water-resources management from Kansas illustrate some of these concepts in a real-world setting. Some of the hallmarks of Kansas water management are the formation of local ground-water management districts, the adoption of minimum streamflow standards, the use of modified safe-yield policies in some districts, the implementation of integrated resource planning by the City of Wichita, and the subbasin water-resources management program in potential problem areas. These are all appropriate steps toward sustainable development. The Kansas examples show that local decision-making is the best way to fully account for local variability in water management. However, it is imperative that public education and involvement be encouraged, so that system complexities and constraints are better understood and overly simplistic solutions avoided. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.This paper presents a synthesis of water sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective. It shows that safe yield is a flawed concept and that sustainability is an idea that is broadly used but perhaps not well understood. In general, the sustainable yield of an aquifer must be considerably less than recharge if adequate amounts of water are to be available to sustain both the quantity and quality of streams, springs, wetlands, and ground-water-dependent ecosystems. To ensure sustainability, it is imperative that water limits be established based on hydrologic principles of mass balance. To establish water-use policies and planning horizons, the transition curves of aquifer systems from ground-water storage depletion to induced recharge of surface water need to be developed. Present-day numerical models are capable of generating such transition curves. Several idealized examples of aquifer systems show how this could be done. Because of the complexity of natural systems and the uncertainties in characterizing them, the current philosophy underlying sustainable management of water resources is based on the interconnected systems approach and on adaptive management. Examples of water-resources management from Kansas illustrate some of these concepts in a real-world setting. Some of the hallmarks of Kansas water management are the formation of local ground-water management districts, the adoption of minimum streamflow standards, the use of modified safe-yield policies in some districts, the implementation of integrated resource planning by the City of Wichita, and the subbasin water-resources management program in potential problem areas. These are all appropriate steps toward sustainable development. The Kansas examples show that local decision-making is the best way to fully account for local variability in water management. However, it is imperative that public education and involv

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2000

A compartmentalized solute transport model for redox zones in contaminated aquifers: 1. Theory and development

This paper, the first of two parts [see Abrams and Loague , this issue], takes the compartmentalized approach for the geochemical evolution of redox zones presented by Abrams et al . [1998] and embeds it within a solute transport framework. In this paper the compartmentalized approach is generalized to facilitate the description of its incorporation into a solute transport simulator. An equivalent formulation is developed which removes any discontinuities that may occur when switching compartments. Rate‐limited redox reactions are modeled with a modified Monod relationship that allows either the organic substrate or the electron acceptor to be the rate‐limiting reactant. Thermodynamic constraints are used to inhibit lower‐energy redox reactions from occurring under infeasible geochemical conditions without imposing equilibrium on the lower‐energy reactions. The procedure used allows any redox reaction to be simulated as being kinetically limited or thermodynamically limited, depending on local geochemical conditions. Empirical reaction inhibition methods are not needed. The sequential iteration approach (SIA), a technique which allows the number of solute transport equations to be reduced, is adopted to solve the coupled geochemical/solute transport problem. When the compartmentalized approach is embedded within the SIA, with the total analytical concentration of each component as the dependent variable in the transport equation, it is possible to reduce the number of transport equations even further than with the unmodified SIA. A one‐dimensional, coupled geochemical/solute transport simulation is presented in which redox zones evolve dynamically in time and space. The compartmentalized solute transport (COMPTRAN) model described in this paper enables the development of redox zones to be simulated under both kinetic and thermodynamic constraints. The modular design of COMPTRAN facilitates the use of many different, preexisting solute transport and geochemical codes. The companion paper [ Abrams and Loague , this issue] presents examples of the application of COMPTRAN to field‐scale problems.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2009

Response to critique by lucas et al. (2009) of paper by Fassett (2009) documenting Paleocene dinosaurs in the San Juan Basin

In this issue of Palaeontologia Electronica Lucas, et al. (2009) question the validity f the Fassett (2009) paper that presented evidence for Paleocene dinosaurs in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado. Their challenges focus primarily on the lithostratigraphy, palynology, and paleomagnetism of the dinosaur-bearing Ojo Alamo Sandstone, shown by Fassett to be of Paleocene age. The lithostratigraphy of the Ojo Alamo is addressed by Lucas et al. (2009) based on detailed studies of outcrops of this formation in two relatively small areas in the southern San Juan Basin where Ojo Alamo dinosaur fossils have been found. When viewed over its 13,000 km2 extent, the Ojo Alamo is seen to be a much more complex formation than these authors recognize, thus their perception and description of the lithostratigraphy of this rock unit is limited and provincial. Fassett (2009) presented a detailed discussion of the palynology of the rocks adjacent to the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) interface in the San Juan Basin, including a 67-page appendix and 25 tables listing the 244 palynomorph species identified from these strata. The Ojo Alamo Sandstone produced 103 palynomorphs from five principal localities including one especially prolific sample set from drill core through K-T strata. Without exception, all samples collected from the Ojo Alamo Sandstone for palynologic analysis were found to contain Paleocene palynomorph assemblages. Lucas et al. challenge only one Ojo Alamo palynomorph assemblage from one of the five areas studied, stating that they were unable to find palynomorph-productive samples at that locality. They submit no new palynologic data that refutes the Paleocene palynologic age of the Ojo Alamo Sandstone. In addressing the paleomagnetism of the Ojo Alamo, these authors dismiss the presence of a critical normal-polarity magnetochron discovered in the lower part of the Ojo Alamo - magnetochron C29n.2n of Fassett (2009) with no evidence to justify this dismissal. This magnetochron has been identified at five localities in the basin, thus its existence seems unquestionable. At the Mesa Portales locality, this normal chron was found in Ojo Alamo strata containing Paleocene palynomorph assemblages verifying its identification as chron C29n. Other minor arguments of Lucas et al. (2009) are also addressed in this paper. In sum, Lucas et al. (2009) present no new data to contradict the data presented in Fassett (2009).

Palaeontologia Electronica↗
USGS2013

Scientific results of the Second Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition in the Ulleung Basin (UBGH2)

As a part of Korean National Gas Hydrate Program, the Second Ulleung Basin Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition (UBGH2) was conducted from 9 July to 30 September, 2010 in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, offshore Korea using the D/V Fugro Synergy. The UBGH2 was performed to understand the distribution of gas hydrates as required for a resource assessment and to find potential candidate sites suitable for a future offshore production test, especially targeting gas hydrate-bearing sand bodies in the basin. The UBGH2 sites were distributed across most of the basin and were selected to target mainly sand-rich turbidite deposits. The 84-day long expedition consisted of two phases. The first phase included logging-while-drilling/measurements-while-drilling (LWD/MWD) operations at 13 sites. During the second phase, sediment cores were collected from 18 holes at 10 of the 13 LWD/MWD sites. Wireline logging (WL) and vertical seismic profile (VSP) data were also acquired after coring operations at two of these 10 sites. In addition, seafloor visual observation, methane sensing, as well as push-coring and sampling using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) were conducted during both phases of the expedition. Recovered gas hydrates occurred either as pore-filling medium associated with discrete turbidite sand layers, or as fracture-filling veins and nodules in muddy sediments. Gas analyses indicated that the methane within the sampled gas hydrates is primarily of biogenic origin. This paper provides a summary of the operational and scientific results of the UBGH2 expedition as described in 24 papers that make up this special issue of the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology.

East Sea Of Korea;Ulleung Basin↗
USGS2007

CO2 storage capacity estimation: Methodology and gaps

Implementation of CO2 capture and geological storage (CCGS) technology at the scale needed to achieve a significant and meaningful reduction in CO2 emissions requires knowledge of the available CO2 storage capacity. CO2 storage capacity assessments may be conducted at various scales-in decreasing order of size and increasing order of resolution: country, basin, regional, local and site-specific. Estimation of the CO2 storage capacity in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is straightforward and is based on recoverable reserves, reservoir properties and in situ CO2 characteristics. In the case of CO2-EOR, the CO2 storage capacity can be roughly evaluated on the basis of worldwide field experience or more accurately through numerical simulations. Determination of the theoretical CO2 storage capacity in coal beds is based on coal thickness and CO2 adsorption isotherms, and recovery and completion factors. Evaluation of the CO2 storage capacity in deep saline aquifers is very complex because four trapping mechanisms that act at different rates are involved and, at times, all mechanisms may be operating simultaneously. The level of detail and resolution required in the data make reliable and accurate estimation of CO2 storage capacity in deep saline aquifers practical only at the local and site-specific scales. This paper follows a previous one on issues and development of standards for CO2 storage capacity estimation, and provides a clear set of definitions and methodologies for the assessment of CO2 storage capacity in geological media. Notwithstanding the defined methodologies suggested for estimating CO2 storage capacity, major challenges lie ahead because of lack of data, particularly for coal beds and deep saline aquifers, lack of knowledge about the coefficients that reduce storage capacity from theoretical to effective and to practical, and lack of knowledge about the interplay between various trapping mechanisms at work in deep saline aquifers. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control↗
USGS1997

Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes

The southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) was established in 1990 across the Pacific-North America plate boundary to continuously monitor crustal deformation. We describe the development of the array and the time series of daily positions estimated for its first 10 sites in the 19-month period between the June 28, 1992 ( M w =7.3), Landers and January 17, 1994 ( M w =6.7), Northridge earthquakes. We compare displacement rates at four site locations with those reported by Feigl et al. [1993], which were derived from an independent set of Global Positioning System (GPS) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements collected over nearly a decade prior to the Landers earthquake. The velocity differences for three sites 65–100 km from the earthquake's epicenter are of order of 3–5 mm/yr and are systematically coupled with the corresponding directions of coseismic displacement. The fourth site, 300 km from the epicenter, shows no significant velocity difference. These observations suggest large-scale postseismic deformation with a relaxation time of at least 800 days. The statistical significance of our observations is complicated by our incomplete knowledge of the noise properties of the two data sets; two possible noise models fit the PGGA data equally well as described in the companion paper by Zhang et al . [this issue]; the pre-Landers data are too sparse and heterogeneous to derive a reliable noise model. Under a fractal white noise model for the PGGA data we find that the velocity differences for all three sites are statistically different at the 99% significance level. A white noise plus flicker noise model results in significance levels of only 94%, 43%, and 88%. Additional investigations of the pre-Landers data, and analysis of longer spans of PGGA data, could have an important effect on the significance of these results and will be addressed in future work.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2012

Keweenaw hot spot: Geophysical evidence for a 1.1 Ga mantle plume beneath the Midcontinent Rift System

The Proterozoic Midcontinent Rift System of North America is remarkably similar to Phanerozoic rifted continental margins and flood basalt provinces. Like the younger analogues, the volcanism within this older rift can be explained by decompression melting and rapid extrusion of igneous material during lithospheric extension above a broad, asthenospheric, thermal anomaly which we call the Keweenaw hot spot. Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution seismic reflection profiles constrain end-member models of melt thickness and stretching factors, which yield an inferred mantle potential temperature of 1500°–1570°C during rifting. Combined gravity modeling and subsidence calculations are consistent with stretching factors that reached 3 or 4 before rifting ceased, and much of the lower crust beneath the rift consists of relatively high density intruded or underplated synrift igneous material. The isotopic signature of Keweenawan volcanic rocks, presented in a companion paper by Nicholson and Shirey (this issue), is consistent with our model of passive rifting above an asthenospheric mantle plume.

Midcontinent Rift System↗
USGS2007

Earthquake likelihood model testing

INTRODUCTION The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective ( i.e. , the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits. Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions. In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper ( Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007 , this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative. Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson ( 2003 ) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests. In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses. To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P -axis, declination of P -axis, and inclination of the T -axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger ( 2007 , this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account for data quality issues, we allow for location and magnitude uncertainties as well as the probability that an event is dependent on another event. As we mentioned above, only models with comparable forecasts can be tested against each other. Our current tests are designed to examine grid-based models. This requires that any fault-based model be adapted to a grid before testing is possible. While this is a limitation of the testing, it is an inherent difficulty in any such comparative testing. Please refer to appendix B for a statistical evaluation of the application of the Poisson hypothesis to fault-based models. The testing suite we present consists of three different tests: L-Test, N-Test, and R-Test. These tests are defined similarily to Kagan and Jackson ( 1995 ). The first two tests examine the consistency of the hypotheses with the observations while the last test compares the spatial performances of the models.

Seismological Research Letters↗