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Production of mineral commodities and geospatial map of the mineral industries and related infrastructure of China

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission to distribute global mineral information and analyze supply chains, this study provides a comprehensive review of the global significance of China’s mineral production and capacity in 2023. Of 77 mineral commodities in the USGS dataset, China produced 74 and was the world’s first-ranked producer for 39 of the 74. Compared to the high share of global mineral production, including up to 98 percent of global gallium production, the country’s share of global mineral reserves was relatively small, ranging from 20 percent (zinc ore) to 52 percent (tungsten ore). China’s imports of metal ores, slag, and ash accounted for 64 percent of global imports of such commodities by value. The country’s exports of base metals and articles of base metal accounted for 17 percent of the global exports. To help nongeographic information system users assess the spatial distribution of mineral mines, processing facilities, and ports for trades in China, this study created a geospatial (also called “georeferenced”) portable document format (GeoPDF) map. In addition, the GeoPDF contains mineral resource tracts (such as antimony, copper, potash, coal, and oil and gas), exploration sites, and energy infrastructure based on the preexisting USGS data.

Open-File Report

A 10-year continuous daily simulation of chloride flux from a suburban watershed in Fairfax County, Virginia, USA

Increasing levels of chloride in surface water are associated with detrimental effects on water quality, aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Numerous mass-balance studies have inferred watershed transport processes by interpreting chloride inputs and outputs, but few represent internal dynamics explicitly. We constructed a coupled water/chloride mass balance model to gain insights into storage, residence time, and transport processes in a 10-km 2 urban watershed. The model, which operates over a 10-year period at a daily time scale, represents storage in a dynamic soil-moisture reservoir, quick-flow runoff from storm events, and slow-flow runoff that sustains streamflow in dry weather. The calibrated model accurately represented (a)the observed transition from a streamflow enrichment regime in cold months to a dilution regime in warmer months, (b) the observed tendency for late-summer concentrations to be higher after winters with heavy snowfall, and (c) a period-of-record downward trend in chloride concentration likely associated with a downward trend in annual snowfall. Estimated chloride inputs averaged 195 metric tons per year, while the average output was 270 metric tons per year. In contrast, estimated storage was only 107 metric tons. The estimated mean residence time in groundwater was 1.27 years. This short residence time indicates that efforts to reduce inputs will manifest as decreased concentrations in streamflow on a management-relevant time scale of several years. The coupled mass balance model yielded insights into internal watershed dynamics that would not be possible from simple input/output analysis; such models can be useful tools for gaining insight into small watershed hydrology and pollutant transport.

Virginia

A journey to the center of the USGS National Strong-motion Project processing and beyond

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) has the primary U.S. government responsibility to acquire, process, and disseminate significant strong-motion earthquake ground motion records measured at surficial free-field stations, structures (buildings, dams, and bridges, and geotechnical arrays to the earthquake engineering community. As a result of the deployment of modern seismic instrumentation and growth of tools such as web-services, earthquake data from U.S. and international seismic networks are more accessible than ever. Our mission is to provide raw and processed strong-motion waveforms with PGA values greater than 0.1%g for M3.0 earthquakes and larger in California and M4.0 and larger within the conterminous US, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska. Datasets of interest to the engineering and geophysics communities, such as event sequences in areas of induced seismicity and significant global events, are also processed and posted at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) at strongmotioncenter.org when available through collaboration with the international strong-motion data community. Here we outline (1) the NSMP’s current workflow to acquire, process, and distribute data at CESMD; (2) our new endeavours and collaborations focusing on comparison and integration of waveform processing software, development of techniques for metadata quality checks before and after earthquakes, and construction of a dynamic site characterization repository; and (3) our topics for possible collaboration topics across the global strong-motion community.

Conference Paper

Simulated ground motion dataset in the Azores Plateau, Portugal, on rock and soil sites

Building on a previously developed bedrock dataset, this study extends the Azores Plateau ground motion simulations to include soil-amplified records and introduces a comprehensive validation framework. Soil amplification is modeled using one-dimensional soil profiles. A stochastic source-based approach is employed to generate the dataset, incorporating randomization of input-model parameters to account for the aleatory uncertainty in seismic activity. The accuracy of the dataset is verified through a comprehensive validation framework, showing that the randomization effectively captures variance and inter-period correlation observed in records. This work provides a robust dataset for advancing seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Azores Plateau.

central and eastern Azores islands

Getting to the surface of the problem: A dynamic rupture benchmark for shallowly dipping faults near Earth’s surface

The Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Dynamic Rupture Group workshop “Getting to the Surface of the Problem: A Dynamic Rupture Benchmark for Shallowly-Dipping Faults Near Earth’s Surface” was convened virtually, in an online meeting on November 4, 2024. 52 people participated, including two who sent pre-recorded lightning talks earlier, but were unable to join us that day due to the international time-zone difference. One-half of our participants were students or postdocs, and the group included scientists from 11 countries (USA, Canada, China, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland).

Final Report

Multi-scale predictors of Northern Long-eared Bat (Myotis septentrionalis) occupancy in the United States

Historically, Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long eared Bat) was among the most common forest-interior species in North America. Largely due to high mortality from white-nose syndrome, this species has experienced severe population declines across its range. To create an updated species distribution map representing summer occupancy probabilities from 2017 to 2022, we integrated stationary acoustic data with live-capture data from the database of the North American Bat Monitoring Program into a multi-scale, multi-method occupancy modeling framework. Our results provide data-driven predictions with quantified uncertainty for summer occupancy probabilities for Northern Long-eared Bats at 2 spatial scales across the range of the species, while also accounting for inherent observation biases (e.g., imperfect detection).

Journal of North American Bat Research

Statewide surficial geologic map of Nebraska underscores Quaternary landscape evolution from the High Plains to the Central Lowland

Surficial geologic mapping in Nebraska has been conducted primarily at the 1:24,000 scale since the mid-1990s, although there have also been limited efforts to map generalized Quaternary and surficial geology within the state and the region. We compiled and evaluated disparate maps (1:24,000–1:1,000,000) and datasets—including geologic, soil and soil parent material, and geomorphic maps as well as LiDAR derivatives—to produce a single 1:500,000 scale surficial geologic map of Nebraska that is the first of its kind. This new map provides a coarse-scale surficial geologic map that will be incorporated into a nationwide U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary geologic map. It also reflects the variation and uniqueness of physical landscapes in the state, where the Great Plains and Central Lowland physiographic provinces meet, further developing a richer interdisciplinary understanding of regional geomorphology in the heart of North America.

Nebraska

Synthesizing a twelve-year sediment trap time series of planktic foraminiferal flux in the Gulf of America (Mexico)

Sediment trap time series provide powerful frameworks for testing hypotheses about planktic foraminiferal assemblage composition, seasonality, and geochemical responses to environmental variability, all of which are central to improving paleoceanographic reconstructions. We present high resolution foraminiferal assemblage data from a long-running sediment trap (2008–2020) in the northern Gulf of America (Mexico). This study summarizes the species composition, seasonality, and size distribution of the fifteen most abundant species of planktic foraminifera, which account for 98% of total flux. Foraminiferal flux peaks in winter and reaches a minimum in summer, following the seasonal pattern of primary production in the northern Gulf. Winter assemblages are dominated by non-spinose taxa, whereas spinose taxa prevail during summer. Across nearly all species, average monthly test size covaries with temperature, independent of seasonal flux trends. Notably, Trilobatus sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei show a significant decline in relative abundance and flux during 2017–2020, nearly disappearing from the assemblage.

Journal of Foraminiferal Research

Avian navigation: Comparing the olfactory navigational “map” and the infrasound direction-finding hypotheses to aeronautics

Animal navigation has long been a fascinating but bewildering subject. Humans and animals might well share similar navigational strategies because they developed within the same physical environments. A “map-and-compass” model has been proposed to explain the two-step avian navigational process, but the “map” step has remained elusive. Although scalar values from bicoordinate geomagnetic or atmospheric olfactory gradients have been considered foundational to the avian map, neither has proved convincing engendering decades of controversy. The olfactory map, and an alternative infrasound direction-finding (IDF) hypothesis, are discussed in this review. The olfactory map hypothesis currently requires extensive stable gradients of trace-odor ratios, but such gradients are highly unlikely within a turbulent and rapidly mixed lower atmosphere. The IDF hypothesis, on the other hand, postulates a two-step navigational model analogous to the maritime and aeronautical radio direction-finding technique. This review was also written to encourage further investigation, and direct testing, of the acoustic navigational process. The IDF hypothesis, at present, appears the better explanation of observed avian navigational behavior and accuracy within the atmosphere’s physical environment.

Journal of Comparative Physiology A

Self-guided decision support groundwater modelling with Python

The GMDSI tutorial notebooks repository provides learners with a comprehensive set of tutorials for self-guided training on decision-support groundwater modelling using Python-based tools. Although targeted at groundwater modelling, they are based around model-agnostic tools and readily transferable to other environmental modelling workflows. The tutorials are divided into three parts. The first covers fundamental theoretical concepts. These are intended as background reading for reference on an as-needed basis. Tutorials in the second part introduce learners to some of the core concepts parameter estimation in a groundwater modelling context, as well as providing a gentle introduction to the PEST, PEST++ and pyEMU software. Lastly, the third part demonstrates how to implement highly-parameterized applied decision-support modelling workflows. The tutorials aim to provide examples of both “how to use” the software as well as “how to think” about using the software. A key advantage to using notebooks in this context is that the workflows described run the same code as practitioners would run on a large-scale real- world application. Using a small synthetic model facilitates rapid progression through the workflow.

Journal of Open Source Education

Groundwater spatial variability within an atoll island: Assessing shallow aquifer heterogeneity with geophysical and physicochemical measurements

This study examines the spatial variability of shallow groundwater on Dhigelaabadhoo Island using electromagnetic induction surveys, groundwater monitoring, and sediment analyses. The research reveals how variations in island morphology—such as differences in elevation, reef flat width, and sediment composition—affect the spatial distribution of groundwater lenses and the overall aquifer dynamics. Saltwater intrusion is especially pronounced in low elevated areas, with narrow reef flat plate and areas where higher hydraulic conductivity—driven by the presence of coarser sediments—is observed, whereas regions characterized by finer sediments, higher elevation, and wider reef flat plates tend to support more symmetric and less saline groundwater lenses. The geophysical investigations reveal that tidal oscillations alter groundwater movement by markedly changing water levels and conductivity, thereby underscoring the critical need to account for temporal dynamics in atoll coastal aquifer systems and the importance of integrating tidal dynamics into the aquifer zone. The findings highlight the significant role of intrinsic morphological and external hydrodynamic factors in shaping groundwater distribution on atoll islands, offering critical insights for sustainable freshwater resource management.

Dhigelaabadhoo Island

Disturbance is the primary determinant of food chain length when the top predator is constant

Food chain length (FCL) is a primary determinant of food web structure and is hypothesized to be influenced by habitat size, productivity, and disturbance. Understanding the environmental characteristics that determine food chain length can assist in understanding how food webs may be impacted due to changes in habitats and environmental characteristics. This study examines the impact of hydrologic disturbance on stream food webs when the top predator is constant. We analyzed FCL in less disturbed groundwater flashy streams and more disturbed runoff flashy streams using stable isotopes. Despite no difference in species richness or fish density, food chains in more disturbed streams had a lower FCL compared to food chains in more stable streams. Assemblage analysis showed that flow regime and drainage area significantly impacted individual species abundances. The more disturbed runoff flashy streams had higher proportions of primary consumer fish, such as the algivorous Campostoma sp. (Stonerollers), which likely drives the reduced FCL. Drainage area and land cover had non-significant relationships with FCL. Shifting community structure due to hydrologic variability likely leads to differences in diet of Micropterus dolomieu (Smallmouth Bass), and thus a difference in FCL.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Nanometer-scale relationships between sedimentary organic matter molecular composition, fluorescence, cathodoluminescence, and reflectance: The importance of oxygen content at low thermal maturities

Molecular characterization of sedimentary organic matter (SOM), termed macerals, is a common goal when seeking to understand petroleum generation as well as other geologic processes in deep time. However, unambiguous measurement of discrete macerals is challenging due to the small size of organic particles in sedimentary rocks, the proximity of different organic matter types to one another, mineral-organic matter interactions, and maceral mixing that occurs during SOM isolation prior to ex situ analysis. The recent advent of infrared spectrometers capable of nanometer-scale resolution and the application of these technologies to geologic samples has enabled advances in rapid, in situ molecular characterization of SOM allowing for insights into paleoenvironmental processes, such as organic matter productivity and preservation, among others. Here we employ one such technology, optical photothermal infrared (OPTIR) spectroscopy, to map SOM functional group distributions at 500-nm resolution in a sample from the Lower Cretaceous Sunniland Limestone of the South Florida Basin. Examined fields of view include occurrences of amorphous organic matter (AOM), inertinite, micrinite, solid bitumen, telalginite, and vitrinite. OPTIR data from these macerals are compared against traditional organic petrographic data from the same organic grains including fluorescence intensity and white light reflectance as well as against cathodoluminescence response, an emerging organic petrographic approach. Maceral oxygen content (using carbonyl functional group abundance as a proxy) is observed to vary widely between maceral types but correlates strongly with fluorescence and cathodoluminescence intensity as well as against reflectance. These findings highlight the important role that oxygen content plays in determining the optical properties of SOM and further demonstrate the ability of OPTIR to discriminate subtle molecular differences between SOM types.

Organic Geochemistry

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California

Total uncertainty quantification in inverse solutions with deep learning surrogate models

We propose an approximate Bayesian method for quantifying the total uncertainty in inverse partial differential equation (PDE) solutions obtained with machine learning surrogate models, including operator learning models. The proposed method accounts for uncertainty in the observations, PDE, and surrogate models. First, we use the surrogate model to formulate a minimization problem in the reduced space for the maximum a posteriori (MAP) inverse solution. Then, we randomize the MAP objective function and obtain samples of the posterior distribution by minimizing different realizations of the objective function. We test the proposed framework by comparing it with the iterative ensemble smoother and deep ensembling methods for a nonlinear diffusion equation with an unknown space-dependent diffusion coefficient. Among other applications, this equation describes the flow of groundwater in an unconfined aquifer. Depending on the training dataset and ensemble sizes, the proposed method provides similar or more descriptive posteriors of the parameters and states than the iterative ensemble smoother method. Deep ensembling underestimates uncertainty and provides less-informative posteriors than the other two methods. Our results show that, despite inherent uncertainty, surrogate models can be used for parameter and state estimation as an alternative to the inverse methods relying on (more accurate) numerical PDE solvers.

Journal of Computational Physics

The 3D National Topography Model Call for Action—Part 2: The Next Generation 3D Elevation Program

The three-dimensional (3D) National Topography Model initiative to integrate elevation and hydrography data includes the next generation of hydrography data from the 3D Hydrography Program and the next generation of elevation data from the 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). The first-ever collection of light detection and ranging (lidar) data for the nation (IfSAR for Alaska) provides a critical baseline reference, and the addition of multiple repeat elevation mapping projects as part of the next generation of 3DEP would substantially expand analysis capabilities. As the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is closing in on our goal of complete coverage with 3DEP data available or in progress for 98.3 percent of the Nation at the end of fiscal year 2024, the USGS is already transitioning to the next generation of 3DEP. Based on the 3D Nation Study results and input from a broad range of stakeholders, the USGS National Geospatial Program has finalized a new design for 3DEP that provides increased lidar quality levels and refresh rates. The new program is designed with more flexibility to meet changing user needs and take advantage of improvements in mapping technologies. The program will aim to expand the level of interagency coordination for topobathymetric lidar acquisition for inland rivers. The next generation of 3DEP will also aim to emphasize research, including advancing program design, products, and services and engaging and leveraging the evolving 3D industry. Research goals also include becoming more flexible in meeting user needs and taking advantage of evolving remote-sensing technologies. The program also plans to move from focusing on producing standard products to producing a concept of a 3D Nation Ecosystem with a variety of inputs, products, and services.

Circular

Computational electromagnetic geophysics for groundwater system studies: A review on established practices and recent advances

Identifying effective solutions for locating groundwater resources and ensuring the quality of drinking water is increasingly urgent, given the challenges posed by climate change and population growth. This review investigates electromagnetic geophysical imaging techniques, in both time- and frequency-domain, that can provide valuable insights for groundwater assessment. We explore computational electromagnetic methods used to evaluate electromagnetic data and several recent hydrogeophysical case studies. As open-source frameworks for modeling electromagnetic geophysical problems become available, a broader range of researchers can interpret their data with computationally advanced software. We provide an overview of documented open-source codes for evaluating electromagnetic data and analyze various hydrological targets in relation to their electromagnetic surveying technique and the computational method applied. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential of advanced computational techniques, including three-dimensional modeling, non-deterministic inversion and machine learning, to couple geophysical with numerical groundwater modeling and apply it in groundwater system studies. Despite obstacles such as complexity and resource demands, our findings indicate that the quantification and integration of predictive uncertainties from both electromagnetic and hydrological data and simulations would significantly improve the reliability of hydrogeophysical models. This can lead to a deeper understanding of groundwater systems and improved management practices.

Journal of Hydrology

Opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model to improve seismic risk assessment of critical infrastructure.

As fragility and risk modeling techniques and computational capabilities evolve, complemented by moving toward more routine and systematic seismic risk assessment of all buildings and critical infrastructure, the authors pose a few critical questions to investigate how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) can be used and enhanced further to serve such issues. In this paper, we use three examples from multiple sectors to (1) identify the role of USGS NSHMs in evaluating seismic risks to critical infrastructure, (2) quantify potential impacts from NSHM enhancements (i.e., [i] hazard curves for the vertical component of ground motion, [ii] stochastic event sets, and [iii] maps of probabilistic ground failure hazards), and (3) clarify the feasibility of relevant NSHM improvements. We illuminate that NSHMs are commonly used in location-specific performance assessments, whereas earthquake effects on critical infrastructure can be widespread across large geospatial regions. Further, we found that without the NSHM extensions considered here, risk can be severely underestimated, e.g., neglecting ground failure hazards can underestimate regional loss by a factor of two or more. Although many challenges remain, we developed example prototypes to clarify the feasibility of the NSHM extensions, which can facilitate improved management of risks to critical infrastructure.

Earthquake Spectra Journal