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Simulation of groundwater flow, 1895–2010, and effects of additional groundwater withdrawals on future stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, central Nebraska—Phase three

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lewis and Clark, Lower Elkhorn, Lower Loup, Lower Platte North, Lower Niobrara, Middle Niobrara, Upper Elkhorn, and the Upper Loup Natural Resources Districts, designed a study to refine the spatial and temporal discretization of a previously modeled area. This updated study focused on a 30,000-square-mile area of the High Plains aquifer and constructed regional groundwater-flow models to evaluate the effects of groundwater withdrawal on stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, Nebraska. The model was calibrated to match groundwater-level and base-flow data from the stream-aquifer system from pre-1940 through 2010 (including predevelopment [pre-1895], early development [1895–1940], and historical development [1940 through 2010] conditions) using an automated parameter-estimation method. The calibrated model then was used to simulate hypothetical development conditions (2011 through 2060). Predicted changes to stream base flow based on simulated changes to groundwater withdrawal will aid in developing strategies for management of hydrologically connected water supplies. Additional wells were simulated throughout the model domain and pumped for 50 years to assess the effect of wells on aquifer depletions, including stream base flow. The percentage of withdrawal for each well after 50 years, which was compensated by aquifer reductions to stream base flow, storage, or evapotranspiration, was computed and mapped. These depletions are influenced by aquifer properties, time, and distance from the well. Stream base-flow depletion results showed that the closer the added well was to a stream, the greatest the effect on the stream base flow. Areas of stream base-flow depletion percentages greater than 80 percent were generally within 1 mile (mi) from the stream. The distance increased to 6 mi near the confluence of the Dismal and Middle Loup Rivers, and the North Loup and Calamus Rivers. The percentage of stream base-flow depletion decreased as the distance from the stream increased. Areas more than 10 mi from the stream generally had a stream base-flow depletion of 10 percent or less. Evapotranspiration depletion was largest in areas closest to streams, specifically in the Elkhorn River watershed. It was also larger in areas of interdunal wetlands within the Sand Hills. Evapotranspiration depletion was negligible in areas greater than 5 mi from a stream, with the exception of interdunal areas in Cherry, Grant, and Arthur Counties. The storage depletion percentage increased as the distance from a stream increased. Storage depletion was largest in areas between streams. Areas experiencing the smallest amount of storage depletion were adjacent to streams. Calibrated model outputs and streamflow depletion analysis are publicly available online. Accuracy of the simulations is affected by input data limitations, system simplifications, assumptions, and resources available at the time of the simulation construction and calibration. Most of the important limitations relate either to data used as simulation inputs or to data used to estimate simulation inputs. Development of the regional simulations focused on generalized hydrogeologic characteristics within the study area and did not attempt to describe variations important to local-scale conditions. These simulations are most appropriate for analyzing groundwater-management scenarios for large areas and during long periods and are not suitable for analysis of small areas or short periods.

Nebraska↗

Conceptual and numerical groundwater flow model of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer system with simulation of drought stress on groundwater availability near Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for 2011 through 2013

Between July 2011 and February 2013, the City of Cedar Rapids observed water level declines in their horizontal collector wells approaching 11 meters. As a result, pumping from these production wells had to be halted, and questions were raised about the reliability of the alluvial aquifer under future drought conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, completed a study to better understand the effects of drought stress on the Cedar River alluvial aquifer using a numerical groundwater flow model. Previously published groundwater flow models were combined with newly collected airborne, waterborne, down-hole, and land-based geophysical survey data and provided a detailed three-dimensional lithologic model of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and surrounding area. An improved conceptual model for the groundwater flow system and a lithologic model were used to build and inform a numerical groundwater flow model capable of simulating water levels observed in the City of Cedar Rapids horizontal collector wells during the 2012 drought. Model performance was assessed primarily on the ability of the model to simulate water table elevation at six monitoring wells. Statistical tests were used to assess the numerical model during the calibration period, and results varied from satisfactory to unsatisfactory, likely because of stage changes in the Cedar River and production well withdrawal rates near monitoring wells. Simulated water levels during the 2012 drought indicated a depression near the horizontal collector wells, although simulated elevations at these locations and at monitoring wells were generally overestimated compared to measured values. The numerical groundwater flow model was modified to account for a decrease in seepage rate caused by low flow in the Cedar River and increased production. With seepage rate modification, model results improved; the simulated water table elevations were like those observed in horizontal collector and monitoring wells. Results demonstrated the ability of the model to simulate water levels observed in the horizontal collector wells during the 2012 drought when accounting for a decrease in infiltration from the Cedar River.

Iowa↗

Perchlorate, metals, organic compounds, and lead isotopes in groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soil within and near the Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29), Middleton, Wisconsin, 2022

The Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29) is in the City of Middleton and adjacent to the towns of Middleton and Springfield, Wisconsin. Nearby homes in the towns rely on private drinking water wells, and residents are concerned about the potential contamination of groundwater and surface water by airport activities, including flights by small aircraft that use leaded aviation fuel and a fireworks display in July 2021. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Middleton, completed a study in 2022 to characterize the occurrence and sources of perchlorate, metals (including lead), and organic compounds in samples of groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soils within and near the airport. Lead isotopes were also measured to determine sources of lead by comparing samples to environmental references. Magnitudes of concentrations from samples of water and soil collected in 2022, and their spatial patterns across site locations, indicate the fireworks display in July 2021 was a likely source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area. The highest perchlorate concentration was measured in surface water at the southeastern corner of the airport near the fireworks launch site; the highest concentrations of fireworks-associated metals were measured in shallow groundwater near the same location. Fireworks were not the only possible source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area because both were also detected upgradient and away from the fireworks launch site. Ratios of lead isotopes indicate that lead measured in water and soil within the airport study area was primarily sourced from background atmospheric lead deposition or Wisconsin galena lead ore. However, two groundwater samples (one upgradient and one downgradient from the airport; both with concentrations less than 1 microgram per liter) had isotopic signatures matching leaded aviation fuel sold at the airport.

Wisconsin↗

Adjudicating groundwater: A judge’s guide to understanding groundwater and modeling

Dividing the Waters offers this groundwater science bench book that cannot be matched by any other scientific or judicial publication. Adjudicating Groundwater combines the expertise and experience of academic scientists (UC Davis/Stanford), federal scientists (U.S. Geological Survey), and judicial officers to create a resource that can fulfill the needs of judges tackling the most difficult groundwater conflicts. This bench book explains both the fundamentals of groundwater science (hydrogeology) and groundwater modeling. The bench book received peer review from scientists and judges, with oversight by the U.S. Geological Survey, making this book among the most reliable resources for judges with water cases.

Book↗

Evidence for terrigenic SF6 in groundwater from basaltic aquifers, Jeju Island, Korea: Implications for groundwater dating

Measurements of the concentrations of dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), tritium ( 3 H), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) in groundwater from basaltic aquifers in Jeju Island, Korea, demonstrate a terrigenic source of SF 6 . Using a lumped-parameter dispersion model, groundwater was identified as young water (<15 years), old water with negligible CFC-12 and 3 H, and binary mixtures of the two. Model calculations using dispersion models and binary mixing based on 3 H and CFC-12 concentrations demonstrate a non-atmospheric excess of SF 6 relative to CFC-12 and 3 H concentrations for more than half of the samples. The non-atmospheric excess SF 6 may have originated from terrigenic sources in relict volcanic fluids, which could have acquired SF 6 from granites and basement rocks of the island during volcanic activity. Local excess anthropogenic sources of SF 6 are unlikely. The SF 6 age is biased young relative to the CFC-12 age, typically up to 20 years and as high as 30 years. This age bias is more pronounced in samples of groundwater older than 15 years. The presence of terrigenic SF 6 can affect the entire dating range for groundwater in mixtures that contain a fraction of old water.

Jeju Island↗

Groundwater quality in the North San Francisco Bay groundwater basins, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California's drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State's groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. The basins north of San Francisco constitute one of the study units being evaluated.

Fact Sheet↗

Groundwater quality in the Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley groundwater basins, California

The Monterey-Salinas study unit is nearly 1,000 square miles and consists of the Santa Cruz Purisima Formation Highlands, Felton Area, Scotts Valley, Soquel Valley, West Santa Cruz Terrace, Salinas Valley, Pajaro Valley, and Carmel Valley groundwater basins (California Department of Water Resources, 2003; Kulongski and Belitz, 2011). These basins were grouped into four study areas based primarily on geography. Groundwater basins in the north were grouped into the Santa Cruz study area, and those to the south were grouped into the Monterey Bay, the Salinas Valley, and the Paso Robles study areas (Kulongoski and others, 2007). The study unit has warm, dry summers and cool, moist winters. Average annual rainfall ranges from 31 inches in Santa Cruz in the north to 13 inches in Paso Robles in the south. The study areas are drained by several rivers and their principal tributaries: the Salinas, Pajaro, and Carmel Rivers, and San Lorenzo Creek. The Salinas Valley is a large intermontane valley that extends southeastward from Monterey Bay to Paso Robles. It has been filled, up to a thickness of 2,000 feet, with Tertiary and Quaternary marine and terrestrial sediments that overlie granitic basement. The Miocene-age Monterey Formation and Pliocene- to Pleistocene-age Paso Robles Formation, and Pleistocene to Holocene-age alluvium contain freshwater used for supply. The primary aquifers in the study unit are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells are typically drilled to depths of 200 to 650 feet, consist of solid casing from the land surface to depths of about 175 to 500 feet, and are perforated below the solid casing. Water quality in the primary aquifers may differ from that in the shallower and deeper parts of the aquifer system. Groundwater movement is generally from the southern part of the Salinas Valley north towards the Monterey Bay. Land use in the study unit is about 44 percent (%) natural (mostly grassland and forests), 43% agricultural, and 13% urban. The primary agricultural uses are row crops, pasture, hay, and vineyards. The largest urban areas are the cities of Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Monterey, Salinas, King City, and Paso Robles. Recharge to the groundwater system is primarily from stream-channel infiltration from the major rivers and their tributaries, and from infiltration of water from precipitation and irrigation. The primary sources of discharge are water pumped for irrigation and municipal supply, evaporation, and discharge to streams.

Fact Sheet↗

Groundwater quality in the South Coast Range Coastal groundwater basins, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s untreated groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. The coastal basins in the Southern Coast Ranges constitute one of the study units being evaluated.

California↗

Groundwater-level, groundwater-temperature, and barometric-pressure data, July 2017 to February 2018, Hālawa Area, Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi

The Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility, operated by the U.S. Navy and located in the Hālawa area, Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi, includes 20 underground storage tanks that can hold a total of 250 million gallons of fuel. In January 2014, the U.S. Navy notified the Hawaiʻi Department of Health and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency of release of an estimated 27,000 gallons of fuel from the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility. In response to past and potential future fuel releases, data are needed to evaluate groundwater flow in the surrounding area. During July 2017–February 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey collected groundwater-level data at 24 sites near the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility. At 14 of the 24 sites, groundwater-temperature data were also collected, and at 6 of the 24 sites, barometric-pressure data were collected. During the data-collection period, a regional aquifer test was conducted in coordination with the operators of three production wells in the area. The recorded water-level changes in response to planned withdrawal changes during December 2017–February 2018 can be used to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system. The scope of this report is limited to a non-interpretive presentation of the data and a brief discussion of the factors affecting the water-level data.

Hawai'i↗

Design and testing of a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system for predicting concentrations of agrichemicals in groundwater across the United States

Efforts to assess the likelihood of groundwater contamination from surface-derived compounds have spanned more than three decades. Relatively few of these assessments, however, have involved the use of process-based simulations of contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface, or compared the predictions from such models with measured data—especially over regional to national scales. To address this need, a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system was constructed to use transport-and-fate simulations to predict the concentration of any surface-derived compound at a specified depth in the vadose zone anywhere in the conterminous United States. The system was then used to simulate the concentrations of selected agrichemicals in the vadose zone beneath agricultural areas in multiple locations across the conterminous United States. The simulated concentrations were compared with measured concentrations of the compounds detected in shallow groundwater (that is, groundwater drawn from within a depth of 6.3 ± 0.5 meters [mean ± 95 percent confidence interval] below the water table) in more than 1,400 locations across the United States. The results from these comparisons were used to select the simulation approaches that led to the closest agreement between the simulated and the measured concentrations. The P-GWAVA system uses computer simulations that account for a broader range of the hydrologic, physical, biological and chemical phenomena known to control the transport and fate of solutes in the subsurface than has been accounted for by any other vulnerability assessment over regional to national scales. Such phenomena include preferential transport and the influences of temperature, soil properties, and depth on the partitioning, transport, and transformation of pesticides in the subsurface. Published methods and detailed soil property data are used to estimate a wide range of model input parameters for each site, including surface albedo, surface crust permeability, soil water content, Brooks-Corey parameters, saturated hydraulic conductivity, macroporosity and sizes of microbial populations, as well as solute partition coefficients, reaction rates, and meso-micropore diffusion rates. To ensure geographic consistency among the predictions, the only site-specific input data that are used are those that are available for all of the 48 conterminous states.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Groundwater-level altitudes and groundwater-flow direction and nature and extent of volatile and semivolatile organic compounds at Petro-Chemical Systems, Inc. (Turtle Bayou), Superfund site, Liberty County, Texas, 2020

The Petro-Chemical Systems, Inc. (Turtle Bayou), Superfund site is 15 miles southeast of Liberty, Texas, in Liberty County. Improper disposal of waste oils led to contamination of soil and groundwater at the site. In cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collected water-quality samples from 11 monitoring wells at the site, in particular the area near well MW-109A (the MW-109 area), in August and September 2020 and compared the water-quality results to the results from previous water-quality sampling events at the site in June 2016 and August 2018 with a focus on benzene concentrations. Contours of groundwater-level altitudes in the MW-109 area indicate that groundwater-flow direction is south-southeasterly in the eastern part and south-southwesterly in the western part. Of the 51 volatile organic compounds analyzed, 13 were detected in groundwater samples from 1 or more wells. In all but 1 well, MW-109A, concentrations of these compounds were less than 100 micrograms per liter. Benzene is still the principal contaminant of concern, as it persists at concentrations exceeding 53,000 micrograms per liter, although naphthalene also appears to be a contaminant of concern, as it was detected at the greatest concentration of any semivolatile organic compound analyte (1,100 micrograms per liter in the sample from well MW-109A).

Texas↗

Decadal trends in the quality of groundwater used for public drinking-water supply in California, 2004–2023, California groundwater ambient monitoring and assessment program, priority basin project

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of decadal changes in the quality of groundwater used for public drinking-water supply at 444 monitoring sites across California during 2004–2023. We assessed decadal step trends in groundwater quality for 145 water-quality constituents and geochemical indicators statewide and across geographic and land-use based network groups. We evaluated the statistical significance of directional changes (predominant increase or decrease of constituent concentrations) and the magnitude of those changes across all network groups. Uranium showed the most widespread directional and high-magnitude increases of all constituents with regulatory benchmarks statewide, particularly in the agriculture-dominated Central Valley as well as urban- and desert-dominated regions of Southern California. Fluoride and perchlorate showed the most widespread directional and high-magnitude decreases of all constituents with regulatory benchmarks statewide, which were also most pronounced in Southern California. Although arsenic and nitrate did not often register significant directional changes across network groups, they showed widespread, high-magnitude changes in both directions (increase and decrease) at levels often exceeding 10 percent of respective regulatory benchmarks statewide. Triazine herbicides (atrazine and simazine) and the gasoline oxygenate methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) showed significant directional decreases statewide, but not at levels considered to be of high magnitude compared to respective regulatory benchmarks. We observed significant directional and high-magnitude increases of total dissolved solids (TDS) statewide, which were most pronounced in agricultural areas. Analysis of explanatory geochemical indicators indicated that prevalent statewide increases of alkalinity and calcium were the predominant components of the observed statewide increases in TDS by mass. Widespread increases in groundwater alkalinity and calcium across agricultural and urban areas may be related, in part, to warm-season irrigation and other anthropogenic factors that have shifted soil weathering dynamics over the long term. Increasing alkalinity concentrations were related to increasing uranium concentrations, particularly in areas with aquifer materials derived from granitic rocks. Conversely, increasing calcium concentrations were related to decreasing fluoride concentrations, particularly in areas where fluoride occurred naturally at elevated concentrations. Decrease of perchlorate, triazine herbicides, and MTBE are likely related to decreased anthropogenic source inputs over time and natural attenuation in aquifers.

EarthArXiv↗

Methods for evaluating temporal groundwater quality data and results of decadal-scale changes in chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the United States, 1988-2010

Decadal-scale changes in groundwater quality were evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Samples of groundwater collected from wells during 1988-2000 - a first sampling event representing the decade ending the 20th century - were compared on a pair-wise basis to samples from the same wells collected during 2001-2010 - a second sampling event representing the decade beginning the 21st century. The data set consists of samples from 1,236 wells in 56 well networks, representing major aquifers and urban and agricultural land-use areas, with analytical results for chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate. Statistical analysis was done on a network basis rather than by individual wells. Although spanning slightly more or less than a 10-year period, the two-sample comparison between the first and second sampling events is referred to as an analysis of decadal-scale change based on a step-trend analysis. The 22 principal aquifers represented by these 56 networks account for nearly 80 percent of the estimated withdrawals of groundwater used for drinking-water supply in the Nation. Well networks where decadal-scale changes in concentrations were statistically significant were identified using the Wilcoxon-Pratt signed-rank test. For the statistical analysis of chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations at the network level, more than half revealed no statistically significant change over the decadal period. However, for networks that had statistically significant changes, increased concentrations outnumbered decreased concentrations by a large margin. Statistically significant increases of chloride concentrations were identified for 43 percent of 56 networks. Dissolved solids concentrations increased significantly in 41 percent of the 54 networks with dissolved solids data, and nitrate concentrations increased significantly in 23 percent of 56 networks. At least one of the three - chloride, dissolved solids, or nitrate - had a statistically significant increase in concentration in 66 percent of the networks. Statistically significant decreases in concentrations were identified in 4 percent of the networks for chloride, 2 percent of the networks for dissolved solids, and 9 percent of the networks for nitrate. A larger percentage of urban land-use networks had statistically significant increases in chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations than agricultural land-use networks. In order to assess the magnitude of statistically significant changes, the median of the differences between constituent concentrations from the first full-network sampling event and those from the second full-network sampling event was calculated using the Turnbull method. The largest median decadal increases in chloride concentrations were in networks in the Upper Illinois River Basin (67 mg/L) and in the New England Coastal Basins (34 mg/L), whereas the largest median decadal decrease in chloride concentrations was in the Upper Snake River Basin (1 mg/L). The largest median decadal increases in dissolved solids concentrations were in networks in the Rio Grande Valley (260 mg/L) and the Upper Illinois River Basin (160 mg/L). The largest median decadal decrease in dissolved solids concentrations was in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (6.0 mg/L). The largest median decadal increases in nitrate as nitrogen (N) concentrations were in networks in the South Platte River Basin (2.0 mg/L as N) and the San Joaquin-Tulare Basins (1.0 mg/L as N). The largest median decadal decrease in nitrate concentrations was in the Santee River Basin and Coastal Drainages (0.63 mg/L). The magnitude of change in networks with statistically significant increases typically was much larger than the magnitude of change in networks with statistically significant decreases. The magnitude of change was greatest for chloride in the urban land-use networks and greatest for dissolved solids and nitrate in the agricultural land-use networks. Analysis of data from all networks combined indicated statistically significant increases for chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate. Although chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations were typically less than the drinking-water standards and guidelines, a statistical test was used to determine whether or not the proportion of samples exceeding the drinking-water standard or guideline changed significantly between the first and second full-network sampling events. The proportion of samples exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids (500 milligrams per liter) increased significantly between the first and second full-network sampling events when evaluating all networks combined at the national level. Also, for all networks combined, the proportion of samples exceeding the USEPA Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L as N for nitrate increased significantly. One network in the Delmarva Peninsula had a significant increase in the proportion of samples exceeding the MCL for nitrate. A subset of 261 wells was sampled every other year (biennially) to evaluate decadal-scale changes using a time-series analysis. The analysis of the biennial data set showed that changes were generally similar to the findings from the analysis of decadal-scale change that was based on a step-trend analysis. Because of the small number of wells in a network with biennial data (typically 4-5 wells), the time-series analysis is more useful for understanding water-quality responses to changes in site-specific conditions rather than as an indicator of the change for the entire network.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Generalized hydrogeologic framework and groundwater budget for a groundwater availability study for the glacial aquifer system of the United States

The glacial aquifer system groundwater availability study seeks to quantify (1) the status of groundwater resources in the glacial aquifer system, (2) how these resources have changed over time, and (3) likely system response to future changes in anthropogenic and environmental conditions. The glacial aquifer system extends from Maine to Alaska, although the focus of this report is the part of the system in the conterminous United States east of the Rocky Mountains. The glacial sand and gravel principal aquifer is the largest source of public and self-supplied industrial supply for any principal aquifer and also is an important source for irrigation supply. Despite its importance for water supply, water levels in the glacial aquifer system are generally stable varying with climate and only locally from pumping. The hydrogeologic framework developed for this study includes the information from waterwell records and classification of material types from surficial geologic maps into likely aquifers dominated by sand and gravel deposits. Generalized groundwater budgets across the study area highlight the variation in recharge and discharge primarily driven by climate.

Glacial Aquifer System↗

Decadal trends in the quality of groundwater used for public drinking-water supply in California, 2004–23, California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Program, Priority Basin Project

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of decadal changes in the quality of groundwater used for public drinking-water supply at 444 monitoring sites across California during 2004–23. We assessed decadal step trends in groundwater quality for 145 water-quality constituents and geochemical indicators statewide and across geographic and land-use based network groups. We evaluated the statistical significance of directional changes (predominant increase or decrease of constituent concentrations) and the magnitude of those changes across all network groups. Uranium showed the most widespread directional and high-magnitude increases of all constituents with regulatory benchmarks statewide, particularly in the agriculture-dominated Central Valley as well as urban-and desert-dominated regions of Southern California. Fluoride and perchlorate showed the most widespread directional and high-magnitude decreases of all constituents with regulatory benchmarks statewide, which were also most pronounced in Southern California. Although arsenic and nitrate did not often register significant directional changes across network groups, they showed widespread, high-magnitude changes in both directions (increase and decrease) at levels often exceeding 10 percent of respective regulatory benchmarks statewide. Triazine herbicides (atrazine and simazine) and the gasoline oxygenate methyl tert -butyl ether showed significant directional decreases statewide, but not at levels considered to be of high magnitude compared to respective regulatory benchmarks. We observed significant directional and high-magnitude increases of total dissolved solids statewide, which were most pronounced in agricultural areas. Analysis of explanatory geochemical indicators indicated that prevalent statewide increases of alkalinity and calcium were the predominant components of the observed statewide increases in total dissolved solids by mass. Widespread increases in groundwater alkalinity and calcium across agricultural and urban areas may be related, in part, to warm-season irrigation and other anthropogenic factors that have shifted soil weathering dynamics over the long term. Increasing alkalinity concentrations were related to increasing uranium concentrations, particularly in areas with aquifer materials derived from granitic rocks. Conversely, increasing calcium concentrations were related to decreasing fluoride concentrations, particularly in areas where fluoride occurred naturally at elevated concentrations. Decrease of perchlorate, triazine herbicides, and methyl tert -butyl ether are likely related to decreased anthropogenic source inputs over time and natural attenuation in aquifers.

California↗

A case study on evaluating impacts of potential climate change on groundwater resources: Groundwater recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin

An investigation of the change in groundwater recharge in response to potential climate change was performed for the UCRB using the SWB groundwater recharge model and downscaled climate data from the CMIP5 multi-model dataset. Climate projections from 97 downscaled CMIP5 datasets were assumed to be equally likely and recharge simulation results were combined. Results for the UCRB suggest that projected increases in actual ET from higher temperatures may be offset by increases in precipitation, resulting in increased groundwater recharge for many areas in the basin in future time periods.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

NGWA Groundwater Modeling Advisory Panel Survey on the Use of Uncertainty Analysis in Groundwater Modeling

This white paper provides the results of a survey by members of the NGWA Groundwater Modeling Advisory Panel to assess the use of uncertainty analysis in groundwater modeling. The objective of the survey was to improve understanding of the use of uncertainty analysis in practical groundwater modeling projects subject to real-world constraints, such as limited budgets and tight deadlines.

Report↗

Potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream temperature are greatest in streams with substantial cold groundwater inflows

Groundwater pumping-induced reductions in streamflow (known as ‘streamflow depletion’) have been documented worldwide, but potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature are not well understood. Here, we use two types of models to identify potential impacts of pumping on stream temperature across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to determine which aspects of a stream's annual thermograph (thermal signatures) can be used to monitor and manage streamflow depletion impacts on stream temperature. We used long-term streamflow and stream temperature data from 30 streamgages across CONUS and surrogate models of streamflow depletion to analyse potential stream temperature impacts at each site. We compared two different stream temperature modelling approaches: (i) a process-based energy balance model and (ii) statistical regression models based on air temperature and stream discharge. We calculated a suite of thermal signatures under depleted and non-depleted conditions for each stream and found that maximum annual 7-day temperature and annual temperature range are potentially the most sensitive to streamflow depletion, with potential changes of at least 2°C at > 70% of the sites when using the process-based model. We also found that the regression-based models predicted much less sensitivity of stream temperature to streamflow depletion than the process-based model. This work provides an initial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature. We demonstrate that stream temperature may be most sensitive to pumping in streams with a high proportion of flow sourced from relatively cold groundwater inputs, and that regression-based stream temperature models may underpredict stream temperature changes caused by streamflow depletion.

conterminous United States↗