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Results for “Geophysical Research Letters”

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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Dome growth at Mount Cleveland, Aleutian Arc, quantified by time-series TerraSAR-X imagery

Synthetic aperture radar imagery is widely used to study surface deformation induced by volcanic activity; however, it is rarely applied to quantify the evolution of lava domes, which is important for understanding hazards and magmatic system characteristics. We studied dome formation associated with eruptive activity at Mount Cleveland, Aleutian Volcanic Arc, in 2011–2012 using TerraSAR-X imagery. Interferometry and offset tracking show no consistent deformation and only motion of the crater rim, suggesting that ascending magma may pass through a preexisting conduit system without causing appreciable surface deformation. Amplitude imagery has proven useful for quantifying rates of vertical and areal growth of the lava dome within the crater from formation to removal by explosive activity to rebirth. We expect that this approach can be applied at other volcanoes that host growing lava domes and where hazards are highly dependent on dome geometry and growth rates.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Head-of-tide bottleneck of particulate material transport from watersheds to estuaries

We measured rates of sediment, C, N, and P accumulation at four floodplain sites spanning the nontidal through oligohaline Choptank and Pocomoke Rivers, Maryland, USA. Ceramic tiles were used to collect sediment for a year and sediment cores were collected to derive decadal sedimentation rates using 137 Cs. The results showed highest rates of short- and long-term sediment, C, N, and P accumulation occurred in tidal freshwater forests at the head of tide on the Choptank and the oligohaline marsh of the Pocomoke River, and lowest rates occurred in the downstream tidal freshwater forests in both rivers. Presumably, watershed material was mostly trapped at the head of tide, and estuarine material was trapped in oligohaline marshes. This hydrologic transport bottleneck at the head of tide stores most available watershed sediment, C, N, and P creating a sediment shadow in lower tidal freshwater forests potentially limiting their resilience to sea level rise.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Estimating time-dependent connectivity in marine systems

Hydrodynamic connectivity describes the sources and destinations of water parcels within a domain over a given time. When combined with biological models, it can be a powerful concept to explain the patterns of constituent dispersal within marine ecosystems. However, providing connectivity metrics for a given domain is a three-dimensional problem: two dimensions in space to define the sources and destinations and a time dimension to evaluate connectivity at varying temporal scales. If the time scale of interest is not predefined, then a general approach is required to describe connectivity over different time scales. For this purpose, we have introduced the concept of a “retention clock” that highlights the change in connectivity through time. Using the example of connectivity between protected areas within Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, we show that a retention clock matrix is an informative tool for multitemporal analysis of connectivity.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Constraints on the source parameters of low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small repeating earthquakes that occur in conjunction with deep slow slip. Like typical earthquakes, LFEs are thought to represent shear slip on crustal faults, but when compared to earthquakes of the same magnitude, LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content and have lower corner frequencies, implying longer duration. Here we exploit this difference to estimate the duration of LFEs on the deep San Andreas Fault (SAF). We find that the M ~ 1 LFEs have typical durations of ~0.2 s. Using the annual slip rate of the deep SAF and the average number of LFEs per year, we estimate average LFE slip rates of ~0.24 mm/s. When combined with the LFE magnitude, this number implies a stress drop of ~10 4 Pa, 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than ordinary earthquakes, and a rupture velocity of 0.7 km/s, 20% of the shear wave speed. Typical earthquakes are thought to have rupture velocities of ~80–90% of the shear wave speed. Together, the slow rupture velocity, low stress drops, and slow slip velocity explain why LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content relative to ordinary earthquakes and suggest that LFE sources represent areas capable of relatively higher slip speed in deep fault zones. Additionally, changes in rheology may not be required to explain both LFEs and slow slip; the same process that governs the slip speed during slow earthquakes may also limit the rupture velocity of LFEs.

California↗
USGS2016

Basin scale controls on CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from the Upper Mississippi River

The Upper Mississippi River, engineered for river navigation in the 1930s, includes a series of low-head dams and navigation pools receiving elevated sediment and nutrient loads from the mostly agricultural basin. Using high-resolution, spatially resolved water quality sensor measurements along 1385 river kilometers, we show that primary productivity and organic matter accumulation affect river carbon dioxide and methane emissions to the atmosphere. Phytoplankton drive CO 2 to near or below atmospheric equilibrium during the growing season, while anaerobic carbon oxidation supports a large proportion of the CO 2 and CH 4 production. Reductions of suspended sediment load, absent of dramatic reductions in nutrients, will likely further reduce net CO 2 emissions from the river. Large river pools, like Lake Pepin, which removes the majority of upstream sediments, and large agricultural tributaries downstream that deliver significant quantities of sediments and nutrients, are likely to persist as major geographical drivers of greenhouse gas emissions.

Upper Mississippi River↗
USGS2016

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

Calbuco volcano↗
USGS2016

Postseismic gravity change after the 2006–2007 great earthquake doublet and constraints on the asthenosphere structure in the central Kuril Islands

Large earthquakes often trigger viscoelastic adjustment for years to decades depending on the rheological properties and the nature and spatial extent of coseismic stress. The 2006 M w 8.3 thrust and 2007 M w 8.1 normal fault earthquakes of the central Kuril Islands resulted in significant postseismic gravity change in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) but without a discernible coseismic gravity change. The gravity increase of ~4 μGal, observed consistently from various GRACE solutions around the epicentral area during 2007–2015, is interpreted as resulting from gradual seafloor uplift by ~6 cm produced by postseismic relaxation. The GRACE data are best fit with a model of 25–35 km for the elastic thickness and ~10 18 Pa s for the Maxwell viscosity of the asthenosphere. The large measurable postseismic gravity change (greater than coseismic change) emphasizes the importance of viscoelastic relaxation in understanding tectonic deformation and fault-locking scenarios in the Kuril subduction zone.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

A revised surface age for the North Polar Layered Deposits of Mars

The North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLD) of Mars contain a complex stratigraphy that has been suggested to retain a record of past eccentricity- and obliquity-forced climate changes. The surface accumulation rate in the current climate can be constrained by the crater retention age. We scale NPLD crater diameters to account for icy target strength and compare surface age using a new production function for recent small impacts on Mars to the previously used model of Hartmann (2005). Our results indicate that ice is accumulating in these craters several times faster than previously thought, with a 100 m diameter crater being completely infilled within centuries. Craters appear to have a diameter-dependent lifetime, but the data also permit a complete resurfacing of the NPLD at ~1.5 ka.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Global statistical maps of extreme-event magnetic observatory 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity

Analysis is made of the long-term statistics of three different measures of ground level, storm time geomagnetic activity: instantaneous 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity Δ B h , the root-mean-square of 10 consecutive 1 min differences S , and the ramp change R over 10 min. Geomagnetic latitude maps of the cumulative exceedances of these three quantities are constructed, giving the threshold (nT/min) for which activity within a 24 h period can be expected to occur once per year, decade, and century. Specifically, at geomagnetic 55°, we estimate once-per-century Δ B h , S , and R exceedances and a site-to-site, proportional, 1 standard deviation range [1 σ , lower and upper] to be, respectively, 1000, [690, 1450]; 500, [350, 720]; and 200, [140, 280] nT/min. At 40°, we estimate once-per-century Δ B h , S , and R exceedances and 1 σ values to be 200, [140, 290]; 100, [70, 140]; and 40, [30, 60] nT/min.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Ephemerality of discrete methane vents in lake sediments

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas whose emission from sediments in inland waters and shallow oceans may both contribute to global warming and be exacerbated by it. The fraction of methane emitted by sediments that bypasses dissolution in the water column and reaches the atmosphere as bubbles depends on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of venting from the sediments. Earlier studies have concluded that hot spots—persistent, high-flux vents—dominate the regional ebullitive flux from submerged sediments. Here the spatial structure, persistence, and variability in the intensity of methane venting are analyzed using a high-resolution multibeam sonar record acquired at the bottom of a lake during multiple deployments over a 9 month period. We confirm that ebullition is strongly episodic, with distinct regimes of high flux and low flux largely controlled by changes in hydrostatic pressure. Our analysis shows that the spatial pattern of ebullition becomes homogeneous at the sonar's resolution over time scales of hours (for high-flux periods) or days (for low-flux periods), demonstrating that vents are ephemeral rather than persistent, and suggesting that long-term, lake-wide ebullition dynamics may be modeled without resolving the fine-scale spatial structure of venting.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Regional-scale controls on dissolved nitrous oxide in the Upper Mississippi River

The U.S. Corn Belt is one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world and is drained by the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), which forms one of the largest drainage basins in the U.S. While the effects of agricultural nitrate (NO 3 - ) on water quality in the UMR have been well documented, its impact on the production of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has not been reported. Using a novel equilibration technique, we present the largest data set of freshwater dissolved N 2 O concentrations (0.7 to 6 times saturation) and examine the controls on its variability over a 350 km reach of the UMR. Driven by a supersaturated water column, the UMR was an important atmospheric N 2 O source (+68 mg N 2 ONm -2 yr -1 ) that varies nonlinearly with the NO 3 - concentration. Our analyses indicated that a projected doubling of the NO 3 - concentration by 2050 would cause dissolved N 2 O concentrations and emissions to increase by about 40%.

Upper Mississippi River↗
USGS2016

Dendritic network models: Improving isoscapes and quantifying influence of landscape and in-stream processes on strontium isotopes in rivers

A critical challenge for the Earth sciences is to trace the transport and flux of matter within and among aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric systems. Robust descriptions of isotopic patterns across space and time, called “isoscapes,” form the basis of a rapidly growing and wide-ranging body of research aimed at quantifying connectivity within and among Earth's systems. However, isoscapes of rivers have been limited by conventional Euclidean approaches in geostatistics and the lack of a quantitative framework to apportion the influence of processes driven by landscape features versus in-stream phenomena. Here we demonstrate how dendritic network models substantially improve the accuracy of isoscapes of strontium isotopes and partition the influence of hydrologic transport versus local geologic features on strontium isotope ratios in a large Alaska river. This work illustrates the analytical power of dendritic network models for the field of isotope biogeochemistry, particularly for provenance studies of modern and ancient animals.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Likelihood testing of seismicity-based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1-year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20-km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple-fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short-term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2016

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

Colorado↗