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Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a changing future

Prolonged shifts in long‐term average climate conditions and increasing variability in short‐term weather conditions affect ecological processes, and represent a fundamental challenge for natural resource management. Recent and forthcoming advances in climate predictability may offer novel opportunities, but capitalizing on these opportunities will require focusing scientific research on understanding the links between climate and ecological responses over multiple timescales, fostering programmatic links among science and management agencies, and developing new and flexible decision‐making frameworks. Anticipating short‐ to near‐term climate conditions can help managers mitigate land degradation driven by unfavorable conditions and promote actions that make the most of favorable conditions. Similarly, anticipating long‐term, multidecadal climate trajectories can help managers to identify those species and communities that are most likely to remain viable throughout the 21st century. A focus on “anticipatory science and management” could substantially bolster natural resource planning and management but will require long‐term investment and widespread adoption.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Geology and ground-water resources of the Rawlins area, Carbon County, Wyoming

The Rawlins area in west-central Carbon County, south-central Wyoming includes approximately 634 square miles of plains and valleys grading into relatively rugged uplifts. The climate is characterized by low precipitation, rapid evaporation, and a wide range of temperature. Railroading and ranching are the principal occupations in the area. The exposed rocks in the area range in age from Precambrian through Recent. The older formations are exposed in the uplifted parts, the oldest being exposed along the apex of the Rawlins uplift. The formations dip sharply away from the anticlines and other uplifts and occur in the subsurface throughout the remainder of the area. The Cambrian rocks (undifferentiated), Madison limestone, Tensleep sandstone, Sun dance formation, Cloverly formation, Frontier formation, and Miocene and Pliocene rocks (undifferentiated) yield water to domestic and stock wells in the area. In the vicinity of the Rawlins uplift, the rocks of Cambrian age, Madison limestone, and Tensleep sandstone yield water to a few public-supply wells. The Cloverly formation yields water to public-supply wells in the Miller Hill and Sage Creek basin area. Wells that tap the Madison limestone, Tensleep sandstone, and Cloverly formation yield water under sufficient artesian pressure to flow at the land surface. The Browns Park formation yields water to springs that supply most of the Rawlins city water and supply water for domestic and stock use. Included on the geologic map are location of wells and test wells, depths to water below land surface, and location of springs. Depths to water range from zero in the unconsolidated deposits along the valley of Sugar Creek at the southern end of the Rawlins uplift to as much as 129 feet below the land surface in the Tertiary sedimentary rocks along the Continental Divide in the southern part of the area. The aquifers are recharged principally by precipitation that falls upon the area, by percolation from streams and ponds, and by movement of ground water from adjacent areas. Water is discharged from the ground-water reservoir by evaporation and transpiration, by seeps and springs, through wells, and by underflow out of the area. Although most water supplies in the area are obtained from springs, some domestic, stock, and public supplies are obtained from drilled wells, many yielding water under artesian pressure, and some flowing. Dissolved solids in the water from several geologic sources, ranging from 181 to 6,660 parts per million (ppm), indicate the varied chemical quality of ground water in the Rawlins area. Water from the Cambrian rocks, Tensleep sandstone, Cloverly formation, Frontier formation, Browns Park formation, and Miocene and Pliocene rocks is generally suitable for domestic and stock use. However, water yielded to the only well sampled in the lower part of the Frontier formation contained a high concentration of fluoride. Water from the rocks mentioned above contains less than 1,000 ppm of dissolved solids but in some places may contain iron in troublesome amounts. Water from the Madison limestone and Tensleep sandstone combined, Permian rocks, and Sundance formation contains more than 1,000 ppm of dissolved solids. Water in the Sundance, Cloverly, and Frontier :formations is very soft. More ground water can be obtained in the Rawlins area than is now being used. Many springs are undeveloped, and water can be obtained from additional wells without unduly lowering ground-water levels.

Water Supply Paper

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water

A new era of genetic diversity conservation through novel tools and accessible data

As the foundation of biodiversity, genetic diversity is necessary for species to adapt to ecological changes, such as impacts from disease, invasive species, and climate change. Genetic diversity also supports ecosystem resilience and societal innovations. Unfortunately, declines in genetic diversity have been frequently observed in populations of wild and domestic species. Yet the field of population genetics is often neglected in national and global environmental policy and has been underutilized in biodiversity monitoring and conservation action.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Integrating behavior and physiology into strategies for amphibian conservation

The amphibian decline crisis has been challenging to address because of the complexity of factors—and their multitude of interactive effects—that drive this global issue. Dissecting such complexity could benefit from strategies that integrate multiple disciplines and address the mechanistic underpinnings of population declines and extirpations. We examine how the disciplines of behavior and physiology could be used to develop conservation strategies for amphibians and identify eight research gaps that provide future directions for the emerging fields of conservation behavior and conservation physiology. We present two case studies on imperiled salamanders that show how studies of behavior and physiology may support amphibian conservation efforts. We found several applications of stress physiology to amphibian conservation, but long-term studies are needed to understand how stress ultimately affects individual fitness and population resilience. Additionally, multiple measures of physiological health are needed to provide a more holistic assessment of an individual’s overall condition. Previous behavioral and physiological studies have been instrumental for understanding how amphibians respond to habitat modification, pathogens and parasites, contaminants, and invasive species. Some behavior-based approaches to mitigating invasive species issues have been successful in short-term studies with individual species. However, widespread application of these tactics has not yet been integrated into conservation and management strategies for ecologically-similar species. A diversity of modeling approaches has enhanced understanding of how climate change may impact amphibian populations, but model predictions need empirical tests to provide conservation managers with workable approaches to multiple perturbations associated with global environmental change. We illustrate that behavior and physiology can have broad utility for amphibian conservation, but evidence is scant that such studies have actually been used to inform strategies for amphibian conservation and management.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A social–ecological perspective for riverscape management in the Columbia River Basin

Riverscapes are complex, landscape-scale mosaics of connected river and stream habitats embedded in diverse ecological and socioeconomic settings. Social–ecological interactions among stakeholders often complicate natural-resource conservation and management of riverscapes. The management challenges posed by the conservation and restoration of wild salmonid populations in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) of western North America are one such example. Because of their ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic importance, salmonids present a complex management landscape due to interacting environmental factors (eg climate change, invasive species) as well as socioeconomic and political factors (eg dams, hatcheries, land-use change, transboundary agreements). Many of the problems in the CRB can be linked to social–ecological interactions occurring within integrated ecological, human–social, and regional–climatic spheres. Future management and conservation of salmonid populations therefore depends on how well the issues are understood and whether they can be resolved through effective communication and collaboration among ecologists, social scientists, stakeholders, and policy makers.

Columbia River Basin

From Caprio's lilacs to the USA National Phenology Network

Continental-scale monitoring is vital for understanding and adapting to temporal changes in seasonal climate and associated phenological responses. The success of monitoring programs will depend on recruiting, retaining, and managing members of the public to routinely collect phenological observations according to standardized protocols. Here, we trace the development of infrastructure for phenological monitoring in the US, culminating in the USA National Phenology Network, a program that engages scientists and volunteers.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

The ecology of dust

Wind erosion and associated dust emissions play a fundamental role in many ecological processes and provide important biogeochemical connectivity at scales ranging from individual plants up to the entire globe. Yet, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust‐driven processes, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian (wind‐driven) processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than an ecological context. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the scale of plants and surrounding space to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. It is likely that changes in climate and intensification of land use will lead to increased dust production from many drylands. To address these issues, environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers need to consider wind erosion and dust emissions more explicitly in resource management decisions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Increased whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense under a warmer and regionally drier climate

Introduction: Tree defense characteristics play a crucial role in modulating conifer bark beetle interactions, and there is a growing body of literature investigating factors mediating tree growth and resin-based defenses in conifers. A subset of studies have looked at relationships between tree growth, resin duct morphology and climate; however, these studies are almost exclusively from lower-elevation, moisture-limited systems. The relationship between resin ducts and climate in higher-elevation, energy-limited ecosystems is currently poorly understood. Methods: In this study, we: (1) evaluated the relationship between biological trends in tree growth, resin duct anatomy, and climatic variability and (2) determined if tree growth and resin duct morphology of whitebark pine, a high-elevation conifer of management concern, is constrained by climate and/or regional drought conditions. Results: We found that high-elevation whitebark pine trees growing in an energy-limited system experienced increased growth and defense under warmer and regionally drier conditions, with climate variables explaining a substantive proportion of variation (∼20–31%) in tree diameter growth and resin duct anatomy. Discussion: Our results suggest that whitebark pine growth and defense was historically limited by short growing seasons in high-elevation environments; however, this relationship may change in the future with prolonged warming conditions.

Montana

Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?

T The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.

North America

Integrating climate change, biological invasions, and infectious wildlife diseases

Climate change is likely to affect infectious diseases that are facilitated by biological invasions, with repercussions for wildlife conservation and zoonotic risks. Current invasion management and policy are underprepared for the future risks associated with such invasion-related wildlife diseases. By considering evidence from bioclimatology, invasion biology, and disease research, we illustrate how climate change is anticipated to affect disease agents (parasites and pathogens), hosts, and vectors across the different stages of invasions. We highlight the opportunity to integrate these disciplines to identify the effects of climate change on invasion related wildlife diseases. In addition, shifting to a proactive stance in implementing management and policy, such as by incorporating climate-change effects either into preventative and mitigation measures for biosecurity or with rapid response protocols to limit disease spread and impacts, could help to combat future ecological, economic, and human health risks stemming from invasion-related wildlife diseases.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges

Mega-fires are often defined according to their size and intensity but are more accurately described by their socioeconomic impacts. Three factors – climate change, fire exclusion, and antecedent disturbance, collectively referred to as the “mega-fire triangle” – likely contribute to today's mega-fires. Some characteristics of mega-fires may emulate historical fire regimes and can therefore sustain healthy fire-prone ecosystems, but other attributes decrease ecosystem resiliency. A good example of a program that seeks to mitigate mega-fires is located in Western Australia, where prescribed burning reduces wildfire intensity while conserving ecosystems. Crown-fire-adapted ecosystems are likely at higher risk of frequent mega-fires as a result of climate change, as compared with other ecosystems once subject to frequent less severe fires. Fire and forest managers should recognize that mega-fires will be a part of future wildland fire regimes and should develop strategies to reduce their undesired impacts.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Editorial: Plant-soil interactions under changing climate

The health and well-being of plants and soil is crucial for all life on Earth. It is well-known that vegetation cover follows climatic zones, and plants respond to climatic drivers such as temperature and precipitation (Seddon et al., 2016; Kattge et al., 2020). It is also well-known that plant health depends on the properties and health of the soil (Ephrath et al., 2020), and that strong interactions among biota above and belowground dictate the functioning of both realms (Van der Putten et al., 2013). Yet, soils and the processes occurring belowground are often considered a “black box,” and are treated very simplistically in our efforts to understand, quantify, and model the future of the planet. Our understanding of the interactions between plants and soils is also far from complete and offers some of the most important research frontiers in community ecology, biogeochemistry, and global change science.

Frontiers in Plant Science

Wildfires and global change

No single factor produces wildfires; rather, they occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. Anomalous weather events may lower these thresholds and thereby enhance the likelihood and spread of wildfires. Climate change increases the frequency with which some of these thresholds are crossed, extending the duration of the fire season and increasing the frequency of dry years. However, climate-related factors do not explain all of the complexity of global fire-regime changes, as altered ignition patterns (eg human behavior) and fuel structures (eg land-use changes, fire suppression, drought-induced dieback, fragmentation) are extremely important. When the thresholds are crossed, the size of a fire will largely depend on the duration of the fire weather and the extent of the available area with continuous fuels in the landscape.

southeast Australia

Modest residual effects of short-term warming, altered hydration, and biocrust successional state on dryland soil heterotrophic carbon and nitrogen cycling

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) on the Colorado Plateau may fuel carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling of soil heterotrophic organisms throughout the region. Late successional moss and lichen biocrusts, in particular, can increase soil C and N availability, but some data suggest these biocrust types will be replaced by early successional cyanobacterial biocrusts as the region undergoes warming and aridification. In this study, we evaluated the short-term interactive effects of biocrust successional state and elevated temperature on soil heterotrophic C and N cycling (specifically, soil respiration, N 2 O emissions, microbial biomass C and N, and soluble C and N). We collected soils following an 87-day greenhouse mesocosm experiment where the soils had been topped with different biocrust successional states (moss-dominated, cyanobacteria-dominated, or no biocrust) and had experienced different temperatures (ambient and warmed), under an artificial precipitation regime. Following this pre-incubation mesocosm phase, the soils were assessed using a short-term (2-day) laboratory incubation to determine the cumulative effect of the elevated temperature and altered biocrust successional state on the temperature sensitivity of soil heterotrophic C and N cycling. We found that there were interactive effects of biocrust successional state and exposure to warmer temperatures during the mesocosm phase under greenhouse conditions on the rate and temperature sensitivity of soil heterotrophic C and N cycling in laboratory incubations. Soils collected from beneath late successional biocrusts exhibited higher C and N cycling rates than those from beneath early successional crusts, while warming reduced both the magnitude and the temperature sensitivity of C and N cycling. The inhibiting effect of warming, was most evident in soils from beneath late successional biocrusts, which, during the mesocosm phase, also exhibited the greatest reductions in gross primary production and respiration in response to the warming treatment. Taken together, these data suggest that an overall effect of climate warming may be increasing resource limitation of the soil heterotrophic C and N cycles in the region, which may magnify alterations associated with the changes in biocrust community structure documented in previous studies. Overall, results from this study suggest that soil heterotrophic biogeochemical cycling is affected by interactions between temperature and the biocrust community that lives atop the mineral soil, with important implications for C and N cycling into the future.

Nevada

Editorial: Plant phenology shifts and their ecological and climatic consequences

Climate change is causing plant phenology to shift, with consequences for ecosystems and the Earth’s climate. Over the last decades, the timing of many important phenological events has advanced in spring, such as leaf emergence and flowering, or been delayed in fall, such as leaf coloration and leaf fall. The consequences of such phenological shifts are still largely unknown, but are hypothesized to have cascading effects on ecosystems, carbon and water cycles, and Earths’ climate. With this research topic, we aimed to synthesize and inspire innovative research in plant phenology to address research questions and challenges on the consequences of phenological shifts on ecosystem function and local hydrology. The articles presented here improve our understanding of the physiological mechanisms responsible for the current phenological changes in spring and fall and provide insight into some of the consequences of these changes on hydrological cycles and ecosystem functioning.

Frontiers in Plant Science